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Moonlight reopens 18/03/2021

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22 hours ago, ggobkk said:

...... Nicky is still the lead off of the parade.  No Babe sighting as of yet.....

Smart is still looking great as always. Nutt seems to have become beefier. As per a mama san, Babe has not started working yet, one new face was just a special appearance while the other one in blue(?) brief is a new regular model. She spoke very highly of Nutt.  

She asked me when i would visit bkk again. according to her, the quarantine  requirement has been decreased to 7 days only. but i was not able to verify it on google yet. hope she got the correct and the most update info. 

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3 hours ago, spoon said:

Oh and i recalled that you vaccine needs to be within 3 month of your travel. Which is weird indeed.

Agreed.   This is a strange policy.

In the case of the Pfizer vaccine, the published trial results already showed it is effective for 112 days.  Only a serious pessimist would assume that blue line on the graph below will suddenly change direction beyond 112 days, but perhaps that's the assumption made in Thailand.

If I remember correctly, the graph below was published in late 2020, with the trial results, prior to approval.  So perhaps they should have further data about the longevity of vaccines now, although whether it's published is another matter.

As of today, only a tiny percentage of the world's population will have have completed their vaccination more than 3 months ago.   The first approval of a vaccine in a democratic country was back in December.   So even there, second doses would be delivered no earlier than January & still be within 3 months of today. 

Perhaps Thailand will review this 3 month limit as more people end up outside it and more data becomes available.

In my case, I'll receive my first jab imminently and following UK policy, the second one would be no later than June.   I'm not planning to return to Thailand again until November/December, so I would be outside the 3 month limit by then.  

I expect that 3 month limit would be modified by the winter.

I also expect a few other Asian countries might have some improved conditions for the entry of tourists.  When the time comes for my next holiday, I'll simply compare the options.

  Finally, you will note that the graph below shows the vaccine is effective from somewhere around the 10~11 day mark.   The 2~3 weeks quoted by the health authorities administering the vaccine is presumably building in a safety margin, possibly for good reasons.

 

blog_pfizer_vaccine_one_dose.jpg

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The Pfizer/BioNTech graph on efficacy is meant to be interpreted from Day 28 to Day 88, as the median follow-up is 2 months. Therefore, efficacy is not demonstrated for 112 days. In fact, many subjects in both vaccine and placebo subgroups were not followed for as long as 2 months for this interim analysis for EUA application. That is one reason why you see the placebo group’s infection case volume fizzle out towards the top right; the only other explanation regional background attenuation in case incidence.

I have not found any longer-term data even though the cut-off for the analysis was 4 months ago. 

The analysis is based on total person-years for each group, essentially similar to how many times one individual would experience the target event over thousands of years, in this case infection (though natural immunity not an issue in calculation), because the duration follow-up periods are variable. This method allows for calculating sufficient statistical power for a threshold of case incidence numbers over a potentially short time frame, but does not predict durability of outcome (eg, protective) difference over time. The standard of safety with respect to product adverse events is also based on a shorter time frame, so it does not pressure the research into longer efficacy evaluation time frames. 

Also, protection from severity of illness was less impressive: 3-to-1. 

I think that the current Thai decision is simply based on the short-term evidence, including antibody robustness from blood samples that has only been pretty much assessed for the various vaccines up to 3 months following inoculation 

Additionally, there seem to be some news reports alluding to the reality that the Thai entry expectation is currently predicated on having received all the doses in a regimen, though I have not been able to find formal confirmation of this.  Perhaps this suggests that Thailand prefers to stick to the product monographs rather than staying on top of the complexities of deferring and understanding immunity conferred wrt to dose delays. 

I interpret this to mean, then, that if first dose is March 15th and second dose is delayed, for example, to July 15th, the window for travel entry is 15July-15Oct. That said, I am sure the requirements will have been revised a few times by that point. But for now, it is worth it to check out if J&J is your best option if approved where you are and where you are is delaying second doses, but you need to get to Thailand sooner. 

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9 hours ago, TotallyOz said:

Yes, odd policy. But, the way things seem to play out in LOS is that they take a dart and throw at the dart board and see what sticks. Will this stick?

No.    It's one of the less sensible covid policies in Thailand.

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The vaccine/entry discussion should continue in one of the vaccine threads...

So back to topic: I went to the opening of Moonlight. Some customers, but not that many really. Dunno if it was more on the weekend. Show was abbreviated, only 4 numbers, including one ladyboy lipsynching one. Babe not there. Approx 8 floor boys. 

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1 hour ago, anddy said:

So back to topic: I went to the opening of Moonlight. Some customers, but not that many really. Dunno if it was more on the weekend. Show was abbreviated, only 4 numbers, including one ladyboy lipsynching one. Babe not there. Approx 8 floor boys. 

it looks like slow start but it was start anyways. As audience will increase hopefully so will an offer on the scene

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6 hours ago, Midguy1 said:

I've just spent about an hour and a half reading through all the excellent contributions and very interesting threads on this board about Moonlight.  My patience waiting to return eastwards has now become somewhat impatient.  I'm looking forward to visiting this bar.

you won't be disappointed, take my word

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1 hour ago, spoon said:

Babe is making appearance in the latest moonlight video on their fb hehe

briefly saw that too, maybe on IG, not sure. But I have to admit, the new Babe has lost his lustre for me after the changes to his face, especially the nose.  Now looks like a generic "too beautiful" face from random advertisements. The "babeness" is gone :sad: 

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8 hours ago, anddy said:

briefly saw that too, maybe on IG, not sure. But I have to admit, the new Babe has lost his lustre for me after the changes to his face, especially the nose.  Now looks like a generic "too beautiful" face from random advertisements. The "babeness" is gone :sad: 

100% agree , I watched that clip and actually for quite a while I was wondering whether it was really Babe or somebody just similar

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