July 20, 201214 yr Active Members OK, the University of Iowa is running its presidential election stock market again this year. Registration is five bucks and you can invest anywhere from $5 to $500 buying the stock of your favorite candidate. Swap and trade, buy and sell: lol, spend endless hours pretending you are Sheldon Adelson or a Koch brother. Maybe even make a few real US$ in the process. Market Quotes: Pres12_VS 2012 Presidential Election Vote Share Market. Quotes current as of 02:00:01 CST, Friday, July 20, 2012. Symbol Bid Ask Last UDEM12_VS 0.512 0.531 0.512 --- --- --- UREP12_VS 0.475 0.489 0.477 --- --- --- | Prospectus | Price History | Graph | Market Quotes: Pres12_WTA 2012 Presidential Election Winner-Take-All Market. Quotes current as of 02:00:01 CST, Friday, July 20, 2012. Symbol Bid Ask Last DEM12_WTA 0.568 0.594 0.595 --- --- --- REP12_WTA 0.415 0.430 0.434 --- --- --- | Prospectus | Price History | Graph | If I am interpeting these Iowa Electronic Market quotes correctly the market is currently predicting with a moderate level of confidence a popular vote victory (however narrow) by Obama and also predicting with a low level of confidence an Obama win in the Electoral College. The IEM is a crowd-sourcing mechanism that claims a better history than pundits at predicting presidential elections and even claims to beat polls until much later in the election cycle (sometime in October the big national polls get too accurate to challenge).
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