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Double Dip Recession on the way?

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Economic downturn defying solutions

Latest data raise fears of 'double dip,' if there ever was a recovery

 

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38871203/ns/business-eye_on_the_economy/

 

The economy is still growing, but just barely. The latest wave of downbeat

economic data, including Friday

"Dr. Doom" gets Gloomier!

 

http://lifeinc.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2010/08/26/4976517-dr-doom-gets-gloomier

 

Economist Nouriel Roubini, who has gained fame as the "Dr. Doom" of the current

downturn, thinks the odds of a double-dip recession have risen to more than 40 percent.

 

Roubini, a New York University professor who gained renown for accurately calling

the housing bubble, revealed his latest gloomy view on his Twitter feed Wednesday,

telling his 20,000-plus followers that

I agree.

 

Both institutions and individuals are still deleveraging. With unemployment at 10% and tapped out credit lines the consumer has no choice but to stop spending.

 

The next trend trend will be household compresssion. Given that rent is a huge expenditure individuals and families will be doubling up and tripling up to avoid homelessness.

 

So what should the prudent investor do?

 

Buy and hold is a recipe for disaster. I am net short equities.

 

If one feels this too extreme, Ginnie Maes are a sweet spot as they have the explicit guarantee of the US government but have a higher yield than Treasuries.

 

I also like agricultural futures as people still need to eat even if they are not buying branded products. And stocks that provide essential services that have a track record of dividend growth such as Con Ed (ticker ED) are worth a look. Con Ed's dividend yield compares favorably with fixed income investments.

Vanguards Weekly Review of the Economy...

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/article/economic-week-review-08272010

 

Economic Week in Review: Not much to cheer about

August 27, 2010

 

The saying "No news is good news" probably would have served the economy well

after another week of dismal economic reports. The government's revised benchmark

indicator of economic growth dropped, durable-goods orders slowed to a crawl,

and the housing market endured a double-whammy as new- and existing-home sales plunged.

 

For the week ended August 27, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.7% to 1,064.59

(for a year-to-date total return

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