One Simple Question for Democrats

What would the working class say?

Ruy Teixeira

Quote

The “what-would-the-working-class-say” test can tell you a lot about whether Democrats are on track with their approach. If the test indicates that Democrats are advocating or saying something that is likely unpopular, off-putting and/or just lacks salience with working-class people, that policy or rhetoric is probably on the wrong track. Conversely, if the test indicates that working-class people are likely to view what Democrats are advocating/saying as desirable, in tune with their values and actually important to their everyday lives, that is a very good sign.

Ruy Teixeira is a lot like Elizabeth Warren to me.   He is passionately committed to working class populist economics.   He is a permanent scold these days.  But he is usually right, and well ahead of the curve.   

When he and John Judis wrote The Emerging Democratic Majority in the dark days of W. and the Iraq War, it seemed like a liberal fantasy.  I think it was the rise of Trump and his authoritarian working class populism that shifted Teixeira and Judis.   They have been calling out the dangers of left wing college-educated elite and woke politics for years.  Even though Judis himself used to work for In These Times, the democratic socialist paper.  Times change.  If there is anything they are particularly against, it is "woke".  And for decades they have been right, and early.

It took a few decades to get from W. in 2002, when The Emerging Democratic Majority came out, to the actual emerging Democratic majority under Obama, to the self-inflicted wound of too much wokeism under Biden and Harris.  So I think he is right on the money that "what would the working class say?"  is THE question  Democrats need to ask constantly for at least a few decades to come.

If I had to bet, I would bet that there is a better than 50/50 chance that Democrats will win in 2026 and 2028 just like we did in 2018 and 2020.  Basically for the same reasons.  The three biggest differences with Trump this time are more cruelty, more betrayal of allies, and more debt.  So if the goal is to have the barest of majorities, we can let Trump solve that problems for us.

If the goal is to do what Judis and Teixeira want, which is to have the power to enact a lasting FDR-like coalition grounded in working class economic populism, it is going to take a lot more.   Like being able to win Senate seats in Ohio, or North Dakota, or Missouri, or Indiana.   Which we held until 2018, six years ago. 

First, it will take some candidate that has gut appeal to the working class.  But it will also take a shift away from culturally woke politics and toward real pocketbook economics.  I think the hardest part for Democrats is not the progressive elite groups, like climate change ideologists, that Teixeira grew to hate because of their arrogance and purity tests.  I think the biggest problem is rich donors and special interests.  Basically all the ones that gave money to Joe Manchin and Kirsten Sinema to block raising their taxes or doing shit that working class people actually want.  Like raise taxes on billionaires to fund things Medicaid and Obamacare.  The working class like things like that a lot.

On his best day in a decade, Trump could barely win 49.7 % of the vote.  And it took global inflation that tossed out incumbents all over the world to even do that.   So I don't believe for a second the death rumors of the Democratic Party.  Which is what you will get a mouthful of if you scan the comments after Teixeira's article.  Or watch @Barknaway's TikToks, which are stupid and quickly grew very boring.  We did so horribly in 2024 that we actually picked up one House seat.  That's not 1980 or 1984.

Meanwhile, our neighbor Mexico elected a woman progressive populist from the incumbent party in a landslide.  Because they did seem to ask every day, "What would the working class say?"   They listened, and delivered -  despite inflation that was just as bad.