How I hope Trump helps the next Democratic POTUS on immigration as he stupidly destroys his own Presidency.

[stevenkesslar]

I am starting this as a new post to pull it back from Judge Dugan on to the broader issue.  And my main point is that Trump is a moron.  So even on an issue that he should be winning on, immigration, he is starting to lose.  This is a gift to Democrats.

It is a gift to Democrats because this was a  huge unforced error of Biden, Harris, and Democrats.  Trump and Chris LaCivita have both broken down why he won very simply:  high prices, and the border.  I'd add a third issue they ran on, but left unsaid:  old Biden.  I don't think Biden could stop high prices, any more than Trump could stop COVID.  Biden could not stop aging.  Arguably if he had stepped out of the way earlier and there were a Democratic primary ........... blah blah blah ............... Harris or someone else could have won.  But she did an amazing job shifting the momentum late in the game.  She almost snatched victory from the jaws of defeat.

So the only thing I would single out as a huge error that was completely avoidable was the border.  Biden could have been Deporter In Chief like Obama.  Some of Harris's worst moments were early in her term as Veep when she did come across very badly on TV specifically on the border.  They tried to fix the problem in 2024, with a bipartisan bill.  But by then it may have been too little too late.  Killing that bill was a bittersweet victory for Trump.  Killing it may have helped him win.  But it also would have helped him - AND JUDGES - fix the problem he was elected to fix right now.  So he can only blame himself.

I think part of the problem is that Democrats simply can't help themselves.  There are too many liberal activist groups with an agenda that does not resonate with working class Hispanics or Blacks, but that does resonate with liberal donors and activists.  This does drive people like Ruy Teixeira up the fucking wall.  Biden could not or would not say no to them. Had Harris been like Bill Clinton and gone after the immigration liberals to make a "Sister Souljah" point, who knows?  Like she could have said the one thing she would have done differently was close the fucking border, which she wanted to all along. But she didn't, or couldn't.  If someone like Bill Clinton (let's say Rahm Emanuel) comes along in 2028 and says this stuff that will horrify the White college liberals Teixeira despises, maybe he or she can win.  But my point is that if you believe that Democrats simply can't help themselves, Trump can help us by creating law or precedent that boxes Democrats in.  If Trump does that, it will be a gift in disguise.

Behind Trump’s push to erode immigrant due process rights

In his first 100 days, Donald Trump has attacked due process rights in the immigration system, which could lead to more permanent consequences than his first term.

Trump seems to love to throw a bomb in the middle of the room as a way to force change.  I posted a great essay written by a conservative explaining why the bomb he threw in the room on tariffs is almost certain to fuck things up.  It created chaos already.  It may cause a recession, and destroy his Presidency. 

On immigration, I'd argue his strategy actually makes more sense.  While that headline plays to the idea that Trump is evil or Hitler, I think the story illustrates some method to the madness.  People are pissed about immigration.  And last year lots of polls said that a majority wanted it fixed.  Trump and LaCivita are right.  They knew this, and used it to pound nails in Kamala's coffin.  Even if Trump wants to be a dictator, I think there are people around him that know he won't be. They are more interested in moving things to the right - permanently.  So what that articles says, which seems accurate, is that there is a strategy to throw bombs in the room to try to force SCOTUS, or Congress, or both to lay down law or precedent that makes life harder for undocumented immigrants.  Or bad hombres, if you prefer.

If that is what actually happens, which seems likely, I'll argue it is a gift to Democrats.  Immigration activists might say it is a tragedy.  But if I wanted to piss them off, I would say blame yourselves, assholes.  You went way too far, and pissed off middle America.  Like working class Latinos.  So you created this extreme reaction.  So learn something.  But to make my party sound worse, and helpless, maybe Democrats can't do that.  Politics can be very complicated.  So instead SCOTUS and a Republican Congress pass laws that say this is the way it is gonna be.  I could see that as a gift.  That way, whether AOC or Rahm Emanuel win in 2028, who I only use to represent two different wings, they know what the law says.  And then they can say, "Sorry.  I can't open the border.  I have to follow the law."  I hope Trump with his chaos and bomb throwing at least manages to do that in four years.

What I also hope Trump does is be stupid, which of course he predictably will be.  And the moron wannabe dictator inside him, a pig-brained narcissist, is fucking seething with fury that some activist judge has the power to thwart him.  I am quite sure he would love to send Judge Dugan to El Salvador.  Who gives a flying fuck whether there is a judicial warrant to do so?  Trump doesn't.  He has made that very clear.

Trump administration must follow court orders, most Americans say

 

I'd guess this is where and why Trump is going too far, just 100 days in.  I think it mostly explains why he has moved from net approval on immigration, to net disapproval.   It is one thing to go after bad hombres who beat their wife.  It is another thing to go after due process and activist judges, who actually are trying to fix the problem.  Americans don't like it.  Even a conservative SCOTUS does not like it.  Why would Trump want to pick this fight?

Maybe, like Democrats, he can not help himself.  He is a wannabe dictator, who does cry like a bitch when he does not get his way.  And he does have the brain of a pig.  So someone like Bill Clinton could usually override his worst narcissistic impulses with his brain.  Trump can't.  So he constantly does really dumb shit that cripples his Presidency.  This is the same script as Act One.  He really can't help himself.

It is worth noting that Democrats and Republicans agree that most judges are not "fair and impartial".  SCOTUS itself has net disapproval, and that is partly because Americans now see SCOTUS as too conservative.  I have no doubt that most Republicans and perhaps most Democrats would see Judge Dugan as not being "fair and impartial."  I would not argue she is impartial.  She is a social justice activist who cleverly told ICE to go fuck themselves, and will probably get away with it.

The axiom in politics is when you're explaining, you're losing.  I think in this case the equivalent is when you are fighting judges, rather than bad hombres who beat their wives, Trump is losing.  And the polls do confirm that Trump is now losing.  It is a fact. 

So maybe some MAGA fanatics feel happy that Judge Dugan was arrested.  But as far as I am concerned, she won and Trump lost already.  It may be true that most Americans would say she is not "fair and impartial". Many, maybe a majority, might say she should go to jail.  But in her eyes, so what?  In her eyes, she stood up for what she believes in - due process.  She may actually be thinking, "I won, and Trump lost."  And if she thinks that, she is probably right.  The polls are clear.  Trump does not want this to be a fight with judges over due process.  And yet HE is making it that way.

Democrats should be grateful.  It is a gift.