How I hope Trump helps the next Democratic POTUS on immigration as he stupidly destroys his own Presidency.

[stevenkesslar]

I am starting this as a new post to pull it back from Judge Dugan on to the broader issue.  And my main point is that Trump is a moron.  So even on an issue that he should be winning on, immigration, he is starting to lose.  This is a gift to Democrats.

It is a gift to Democrats because this was a  huge unforced error of Biden, Harris, and Democrats.  Trump and Chris LaCivita have both broken down why he won very simply:  high prices, and the border.  I'd add a third issue they ran on, but left unsaid:  old Biden.  I don't think Biden could stop high prices, any more than Trump could stop COVID.  Biden could not stop aging.  Arguably if he had stepped out of the way earlier and there were a Democratic primary ........... blah blah blah ............... Harris or someone else could have won.  But she did an amazing job shifting the momentum late in the game.  She almost snatched victory from the jaws of defeat.

So the only thing I would single out as a huge error that was completely avoidable was the border.  Biden could have been Deporter In Chief like Obama.  Some of Harris's worst moments were early in her term as Veep when she did come across very badly on TV specifically on the border.  They tried to fix the problem in 2024, with a bipartisan bill.  But by then it may have been too little too late.  Killing that bill was a bittersweet victory for Trump.  Killing it may have helped him win.  But it also would have helped him - AND JUDGES - fix the problem he was elected to fix right now.  So he can only blame himself.

I think part of the problem is that Democrats simply can't help themselves.  There are too many liberal activist groups with an agenda that does not resonate with working class Hispanics or Blacks, but that does resonate with liberal donors and activists.  This does drive people like Ruy Teixeira up the fucking wall.  Biden could not or would not say no to them. Had Harris been like Bill Clinton and gone after the immigration liberals to make a "Sister Souljah" point, who knows?  Like she could have said the one thing she would have done differently was close the fucking border, which she wanted to all along. But she didn't, or couldn't.  If someone like Bill Clinton (let's say Rahm Emanuel) comes along in 2028 and says this stuff that will horrify the White college liberals Teixeira despises, maybe he or she can win.  But my point is that if you believe that Democrats simply can't help themselves, Trump can help us by creating law or precedent that boxes Democrats in.  If Trump does that, it will be a gift in disguise.

Behind Trump’s push to erode immigrant due process rights

In his first 100 days, Donald Trump has attacked due process rights in the immigration system, which could lead to more permanent consequences than his first term.

Trump seems to love to throw a bomb in the middle of the room as a way to force change.  I posted a great essay written by a conservative explaining why the bomb he threw in the room on tariffs is almost certain to fuck things up.  It created chaos already.  It may cause a recession, and destroy his Presidency. 

On immigration, I'd argue his strategy actually makes more sense.  While that headline plays to the idea that Trump is evil or Hitler, I think the story illustrates some method to the madness.  People are pissed about immigration.  And last year lots of polls said that a majority wanted it fixed.  Trump and LaCivita are right.  They knew this, and used it to pound nails in Kamala's coffin.  Even if Trump wants to be a dictator, I think there are people around him that know he won't be. They are more interested in moving things to the right - permanently.  So what that articles says, which seems accurate, is that there is a strategy to throw bombs in the room to try to force SCOTUS, or Congress, or both to lay down law or precedent that makes life harder for undocumented immigrants.  Or bad hombres, if you prefer.

If that is what actually happens, which seems likely, I'll argue it is a gift to Democrats.  Immigration activists might say it is a tragedy.  But if I wanted to piss them off, I would say blame yourselves, assholes.  You went way too far, and pissed off middle America.  Like working class Latinos.  So you created this extreme reaction.  So learn something.  But to make my party sound worse, and helpless, maybe Democrats can't do that.  Politics can be very complicated.  So instead SCOTUS and a Republican Congress pass laws that say this is the way it is gonna be.  I could see that as a gift.  That way, whether AOC or Rahm Emanuel win in 2028, who I only use to represent two different wings, they know what the law says.  And then they can say, "Sorry.  I can't open the border.  I have to follow the law."  I hope Trump with his chaos and bomb throwing at least manages to do that in four years.

What I also hope Trump does is be stupid, which of course he predictably will be.  And the moron wannabe dictator inside him, a pig-brained narcissist, is fucking seething with fury that some activist judge has the power to thwart him.  I am quite sure he would love to send Judge Dugan to El Salvador.  Who gives a flying fuck whether there is a judicial warrant to do so?  Trump doesn't.  He has made that very clear.

Trump administration must follow court orders, most Americans say

 

I'd guess this is where and why Trump is going too far, just 100 days in.  I think it mostly explains why he has moved from net approval on immigration, to net disapproval.   It is one thing to go after bad hombres who beat their wife.  It is another thing to go after due process and activist judges, who actually are trying to fix the problem.  Americans don't like it.  Even a conservative SCOTUS does not like it.  Why would Trump want to pick this fight?

Maybe, like Democrats, he can not help himself.  He is a wannabe dictator, who does cry like a bitch when he does not get his way.  And he does have the brain of a pig.  So someone like Bill Clinton could usually override his worst narcissistic impulses with his brain.  Trump can't.  So he constantly does really dumb shit that cripples his Presidency.  This is the same script as Act One.  He really can't help himself.

It is worth noting that Democrats and Republicans agree that most judges are not "fair and impartial".  SCOTUS itself has net disapproval, and that is partly because Americans now see SCOTUS as too conservative.  I have no doubt that most Republicans and perhaps most Democrats would see Judge Dugan as not being "fair and impartial."  I would not argue she is impartial.  She is a social justice activist who cleverly told ICE to go fuck themselves, and will probably get away with it.

The axiom in politics is when you're explaining, you're losing.  I think in this case the equivalent is when you are fighting judges, rather than bad hombres who beat their wives, Trump is losing.  And the polls do confirm that Trump is now losing.  It is a fact. 

So maybe some MAGA fanatics feel happy that Judge Dugan was arrested.  But as far as I am concerned, she won and Trump lost already.  It may be true that most Americans would say she is not "fair and impartial". Many, maybe a majority, might say she should go to jail.  But in her eyes, so what?  In her eyes, she stood up for what she believes in - due process.  She may actually be thinking, "I won, and Trump lost."  And if she thinks that, she is probably right.  The polls are clear.  Trump does not want this to be a fight with judges over due process.  And yet HE is making it that way.

Democrats should be grateful.  It is a gift.

 

 

[stevenkesslar]

House Judiciary approves proposals to boost immigration enforcement in Trump’s megabill

Republicans fought hard for their conservative priorities

 

So this sounds like good news, for three reasons.

First, I'd call it a win for America.  Americans definitely wanted an immigration crackdown.  I'd say Trump won for three reasons:  lower prices, the border, and old Biden.  They are not getting their lower prices, and they are pissed.  But at least they get their crackdown.

Second, it's a victory for Republicans who have a lot of conservative ideas and now will put them into law.

Third, for the reasons I outlined above, I'd call this a victory for Democrats.  There was a bipartisan crackdown that could have passed a year ago, had Trump not killed it.  So Democrats can now be the loyal opposition.  Some of this does sound like it goes too far.  But I like the idea that it boxes Democrats in.  And if it is coming from Congress or judges, it is the right way to do it.

It is interesting to note what amendments Democrats pushed that all failed.  Like ICE should not be funded to detain or deport US citizens.  ICE should not do immigration enforcement at elementary schools.  Hardly radical left-wing ideas.   When the insolent pig fails and Democrats are in charge again, they can move things back to the middle, hopefully.  But on this issue in particular I feel my party, Democrats, asked for it.  So now we see the results of pushing too hard. That's politics.

[Pete1111]

  

When I moved to California from the Midwest years ago I was suddenly in a far more diverse world.  Looking around,  it was clear to me who was willing to get up early each day and get busy.  Who was doing most of the jobs.  Young immigrants.

I remember George W. Bush how his administration admitted we must bring undocumented workers out of the shadows.  Back then we heard the term "path to citizenship".  Bush admitted we can't just send them all back.  To me, he was admitting what few politicians will say, that these millions of workers are a big part of our economic engine. 

All the years when our economy was chugging along, while other regions weren't, had do be in part due to cheap, young labor that worked hard here in the States.

The GOP is using immigrants as an emotional, political hot button.  On C-Span I see the same thing happen in Parliament.  This is politics.  But we are cutting off our nose to spite our face.

 

[stevenkesslar]

6 hours ago, Pete1111 said:

But we are cutting off our nose to spite our face.

One of my Millennial nephews has a great line when I goad him about his own, and his generation's, cynicism about government.

He points out he and his wife probably won't ever get the benefits of Social Security like his Mom and Dad do.  Fucking Boomers.  To which I reply he is both the symptom and cause of cynicism.  If Ronald Reagan could fix Social Security for a generation, and Trump could barely put together a coalition that elected him twice, Millennials and Zoomers should find demanding politicians fix Social Security for another generation or two a piece of cake.  (It is set to go bankrupt in 2033.)

Ever the data geek, he replied that the problem is arithmetic.  Americans are just not making enough babies anymore to make the math work.  So maybe it is not the Fucking Boomers after all.  Maybe it is simply Fucking.  Who knew?  🙄

This exchange happened two days ago.  I wondered what the impact of immigration is.  So I checked.

The Overlooked Impact of Immigration on the Size of the Future U.S. Workforce

Quote

Without immigrant-origin individuals, the U.S. child population would have shrunk by more than 5 million between 2000 and 2023, while the prime working-age population would have fallen by more than 8 million over the same period. During that period, immigrant-origin adults accounted for all net growth in the U.S. working-age population. Their impact on demographic change is set to continue in the future. While the future scale and composition of immigration may hinge to an extent on the outcome of the 2024 presidential and congressional elections, the U.S.-born children of today's immigrants will increasingly populate K-12 classrooms, higher education institutions, and U.S. workplaces. 

That report does not specifically address Social Security.  But it's clear that today's immigrants will also increasingly be keeping us out of poverty by paying for our Social Security benefits.

In fairness, Trump is only talking about illegal immigrants.  Not legal ones like his wife.

Oh, as well as getting rid of birth right citizenship if he can.

 

And speaking of older Americans, Warren Buffet just got off a great line about what sucks about tariffs.  He said he just doesn't think it will work out well when we piss off 7 billion people who don't like us, when there's only 340 million of us.

Not that there is any recent evidence that Canadians or Australians don't like us.  Is there?  

So one wonders if at some point even our former friends and allies decide they don't want to live in our shit hole of a country.

The math works well.  The generation that always tends to support Trump and his policies the most is Gen X.  They are 45 to 60 today.  So right around when they are coming into the retirement system expecting the benefits is when it is supposed to go broke.  Getting rid of the people funding Social Security, or discouraging them from coming in the first place, will clearly help.  🙄

Fucking Trumpers!

 

(A geeky P.S.  Brookings put forth a "centrist" proposal that says increasing legal immigration would pay for about 5 % of the needed amount to make Social Security solvent for the next 75 years.  Less immigration obviously just makes the problem worse, earlier.  The big ticket items basically target the rich:  higher earners paying SSI taxes on a higher percentage of their earnings, and high earners paying taxes on all SSI benefits.  Trump clearly plans to rob from the poor to help the rich.  With luck, I hope Millennials and Zoomers at some point have the clout and will to rob from the rich to help themselves.)

[Pete1111]

17 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

One of my Millennial nephews has a great line when I goad him about his own, and his generation's, cynicism about government.

He points out he and his wife probably won't ever get the benefits of Social Security like his Mom and Dad do.  Fucking Boomers.  To which I reply he is both the symptom and cause of cynicism.  If Ronald Reagan could fix Social Security for a generation, and Trump could barely put together a coalition that elected him twice, Millennials and Zoomers should find demanding politicians fix Social Security for another generation or two a piece of cake.  (It is set to go bankrupt in 2033.)

Ever the data geek, he replied that the problem is arithmetic.  Americans are just not making enough babies anymore to make the math work.  So maybe it is not the Fucking Boomers after all.  Maybe it is simply Fucking.  Who knew?  🙄

This exchange happened two days ago.  I wondered what the impact of immigration is.  So I checked.

The Overlooked Impact of Immigration on the Size of the Future U.S. Workforce

That report does not specifically address Social Security.  But it's clear that today's immigrants will also increasingly be keeping us out of poverty by paying for our Social Security benefits.

In fairness, Trump is only talking about illegal immigrants.  Not legal ones like his wife.

Oh, as well as getting rid of birth right citizenship if he can.

 

And speaking of older Americans, Warren Buffet just got off a great line about what sucks about tariffs.  He said he just doesn't think it will work out well when we piss off 7 billion people who don't like us, when there's only 340 million of us.

Not that there is any recent evidence that Canadians or Australians don't like us.  Is there?  

So one wonders if at some point even our former friends and allies decide they don't want to live in our shit hole of a country.

The math works well.  The generation that always tends to support Trump and his policies the most is Gen X.  They are 45 to 60 today.  So right around when they are coming into the retirement system expecting the benefits is when it is supposed to go broke.  Getting rid of the people funding Social Security, or discouraging them from coming in the first place, will clearly help.  🙄

Fucking Trumpers!

 

(A geeky P.S.  Brookings put forth a "centrist" proposal that says increasing legal immigration would pay for about 5 % of the needed amount to make Social Security solvent for the next 75 years.  Less immigration obviously just makes the problem worse, earlier.  The big ticket items basically target the rich:  higher earners paying SSI taxes on a higher percentage of their earnings, and high earners paying taxes on all SSI benefits.  Trump clearly plans to rob from the poor to help the rich.  With luck, I hope Millennials and Zoomers at some point have the clout and will to rob from the rich to help themselves.)

Does the GOP care how deporting workers hastens Social Security insolvency?  For years their agenda has been to undermine and even privatize Social Security.  So, losing the revenue deducted from worker paychecks is nothing more than an "oh well!" to them.   

I agree, one can hope that Millennials and Zoomers will realize they need to tax the rich.

My sense is the momentum is not moving in that direction.

Was good to hear Warren Buffet add to the tariff conversation.  He also recently reminded that we need to remember some people draw the short straw in life, that it's not their fault.  I doubt Jeff Bezos has such thoughts when floating on his $500,000,000 mega yacht.

 

 

[stevenkesslar]

1 hour ago, Pete1111 said:

My sense is the momentum is not moving in that direction.

That's far from clear.

I'm now changing the subject from immigration, and the impact on the Democratic Party, to the more general topic of how Democrats dig out of the hole we are in.

To sum up on immigration, my point is this.  The Republicans will do the heavy lifting for us.  Trump will attack judges.  So then the issue becomes defending due process and the rule of law.  People, including many Republicans, don't think Trump follows the law.  Meanwhile, Republicans in Congress will do perfectly democratic things - pass laws - moving the immigration debate as far right as they can.  So then the issue may not be should we deport criminal wife beaters?  (Duh!  Yes.)  It may be should we deport US citizens because Trump doesn't like them?  (Duh! No.)  I mostly think Republicans will solve the problem for us.

Last night I read a series of recent essays from John Judis.  Along with Ruy Teixeira, he co-authored The Emerging Democratic Minority in 2002.  Which seemed way too optimistic at the time.  Now they are kind of the scolds who have been pragmatically warning Democrats for years.  So the best of his recent essays is this one:

The Emerging Democratic Minority

There's a hyperlink there.  But in case you miss it click here.  Sounds bleak.  But the well-documented facts are not as bleak as it sounds.

One of the things that is not as bleak as it sounds is Millennials and Zoomers, and especially young Zoomer men, under 24.  The action is always in the reaction, to quote Alinksy.  So they got pissed about - you name it - high rent, lockdowns, toxic masculinity, feeling they were ignored.  So Trump went after them and a lot of them shifted.  Part of the idea is most of these guys were too young to vote for Biden in 2020 anyway, and were not tuned in for Trump 1.0.  So why not give it a try?  And they did.  And now, as Judis and others document, they are one of the groups moving away from Trump the quickest.

There's been a lot of headlines about the new Harvard Youth poll that shows young voters trust Congressional Democrats even less than Trump, which is the opposite of four years ago.  I think that is overstated.  Because some of the young that don't trust Democrats are AOC/Bernie types.  They really don't like Trump.  And they want Democrats to be more aggressive in opposing him - which moderates mostly don't.  The most recent generic ballot polls all show Democrats up. Two of the most recent ones show Democrats up 5 to 7 points.  So if it's a battle of which awful party is less awful, right now Democrats are winning.  We are less awful!  Woo hoo!

To that point, another great essay Judis just wrote argued we are stuck in this period of the lesser evil party winning.  In 2018 and 2020, that was Democrats.  In 2024, it was (barely) Trump and Republicans.  Recall, Democrats did not get wiped out in 2022, like in 1994 and 2010.  They gained one House seat in 2024.  Judis argues Democrats could win, narrowly, in 2026 and 2028 simply by being less awful.  And young voters shifting back to Democrats who are willing to do things like tax Elon Musk more could be one of the things that help.

The thing that really jumped out at me as the most toxic thing for Democrats is not young men and "toxic masculinity".  It is rural areas and small towns.  This is NOT a news flash, of course.  And the two key toxic words are:  fossil fuels.  Like you can take Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Louisiana, Ohio, and maybe now even Pennsylvania off the map thanks to fossil fuels.  I just named places where Democrats could win Senate seats for sure, and in several cases electoral college votes.  In 2008 Democrats won Senate seats in Alaska, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia.  All fossil fuel states.  All places where Democrats can no longer win, seemingly.

The silver lining in that cloud is that Judis and Teixeira both argue that climate change progressives who want any climate change policy that can pass will have to either accept winning moderate things, or losing to Trump's all out war on climate change.  So, again, Republicans may do the heavy lifting.  In this case by severely crippling and beating climate changers to the point where they decide being able to win small things is better than massive losses.

The particular nephew I named above, a Millennial, despises Trump as a dimwit and loves nuclear energy as a pragmatic solution.  So these emerging ideas about "abundance" and just getting shit done quicker (like building homes and bridges) and being pragmatists about nuclear power as a transition fuel that is a lesser evil would probably help Democrats a lot at the ballot box.  My question about nukes now is less safety and - as always - can you actually deliver on affordability?  But that would be a great debate to have that would not send Iowans running away.

To sum up, Democrats' best hope does seem to be that Trump does so many awful things that moving toward the center is less awful for progressives than losing.  And enough to convince people in the states I named to vote for Democratic Senators and Presidents again.

[Suckrates]

Even if Trump destroys his Presidency in the end, he wont care because he will be FILTHY RICH.   Each day Trump and his 2 Satans sprawn sons are pulling in billions from overseas deals in Dubai, Quatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, etc..... not to mention the grift from his Crypto meme coin SCAM.....

Yet Trump, and his sychophantic GOP screamed their heads off over HUNTER BIDEN selling his paintings and possibly profiting off Bidens name....   Bidens  perceived  profiteering PALES in comparison to Trumps monumental use of his position to SELF PROFIT.    And the GOP do and say nothing but give Trump the "thumbs up" for his business genius.  

[stevenkesslar]

1 hour ago, Suckrates said:

Even if Trump destroys his Presidency in the end, he wont care because he will be FILTHY RICH.   Each day Trump and his 2 Satans sprawn sons are pulling in billions from overseas deals in Dubai, Quatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, etc..... not to mention the grift from his Crypto meme coin SCAM.....

Yet Trump, and his sychophantic GOP screamed their heads off over HUNTER BIDEN selling his paintings and possibly profiting off Bidens name....   Bidens  perceived  profiteering PALES in comparison to Trumps monumental use of his position to SELF PROFIT.    And the GOP do and say nothing but give Trump the "thumbs up" for his business genius.  

Yes, yes, yes.   But what I am realizing more and more is that all that may be a blessing in disguise.

The problem is this: how do you elect a racist Chicago Jew or a moderate Kentucky farm boy as President?  AOC and her minions will have none of that!

I'm referring to Rahm Emanuel and Andy Beshear.  And the racist Jew dig is based on all the turmoil in Chicago when he was Mayor about racist cops killing Blacks, that peaked in 2020 of course.  Rahm also pissed off lots of teachers.  He claims it made schools better.  So if I had to bet on either of these two, it would be that a moderate farm boy from Kentucky might be viewed as less offensive to progressives.

The point is that Trump is creating a sort of existential crisis.  Not only for democracy, but for progressives.  Like we will wipe you out.  Totally.  We will bury your woke asses in coal.  Fuck you, and fuck your climate change woke bullshit that most people hate.  You are wrong.  You are fucked.  And you will die.  And you fucking deserve to die!

Did I scare you, Sis?  I didn't mean to.  But that is basically what Trump says, and means.  And the climate change crowd has to survive four years of that.  Better get some Democrats elected in 2026 to at least put a check on it.

John Judis is as leftist as it gets, back in the day.  So if he is saying Democrats have to moderate on issues like climate change, or we die, that is a big shift.  But if he is right, how does that even happen?  The only way I can see is basically how it did when Clinton got elected.  Moderate, or die.  The question is does it take 12 years like it did from 1980 to 1992?  Reagan won two landslides, Trump barely won twice.  And he is scaring the living shit out of people.  Especially progressives.  So I'm optimistic four years of this horror may be enough.

I have my eye on Ruben Gallego.  He won in Arizona.  And the gap between his vote and Kamala's was bigger than the gap between Harris and any other Democratic Senator who won in a swing state she lost.  He is a guy, he says Latino men all want to own a big ass truck (gas version), and he takes his son to box in a gym.  That may be less offensive, and a reason for young Zoomer men who already regret voting for Trump to shift back.