Comparing Trump and Hoover, Tariffs and Recession

[Pete1111]

I remember in high school during economics class the teacher pointed at the white board (or was it a chalk board?) and said this board represents our economy. Then he drew a small square in one corner and said "this is how much we understand about the economy".   Fast forward many years, even in our current age of supercomputers and market controls, the reaction to U.S economic policy is not always understood well enough.

To say that tariffs caused the Great Depression as in this brief opinion piece  might not be a sound idea.  Jerome Powell admits we can't know where the economy will go with Trump's tariffs. We have to wait.  Bill Gross does warn that tariffs might cause stagflation, that tariffs are a bad idea.

Yes, how tariffs made the Great Depression worse is an accepted fact by economic scholars and historians.  But these experts may not accept that tariffs were the original cause. 

What bothers me (I may have said this before) is how Democrats like to equate Trump and Hoover.  For example, all of the corruption, scandals, and tax cuts that happened in Washington 100 years ago preceded Hoover. The stock market crash itself was not caused by Hoover.   Alan Greenspan used to discuss how irrational exuberance will escalate asset values.  That concept is much closer to what lead to the 1929 crash.  Investors were buying stocks on credit.   These were not "value investors"

I am weary of how Democrats like to parrot ideas about Hoover without understanding history.  Hoover was in a class by himself comparted to King Baby.  Hoover had many admirable  accomplishments in his life and was already well known and admired around the world before he became President.  He was a famous mining engineer.  He played a role in international relief efforts during World War I, helping many Europeans avoid starvation.

I recommend anyone heading down I-80 in Iowa stop at the Hoover Library to learn another side of Hoover, what kind of man Hoover was.

Yes, politicians and some historians like to trot out a lot of bad policy decisions they assign to Hoover, that make him seem pretty evil, but there was a good side to the man, a side that Trump will never achieve.  Donald Trump will never accomplish what Hoover did in his life.

 

 

 

[stevenkesslar]

1 hour ago, Pete1111 said:

I remember in high school during economics class the teacher pointed at the white board (or was it a chalk board?) and said this board represents our economy. Then he drew a small square in one corner and said "this is how much we understand about the economy".   Fast forward many years, even in our current age of supercomputers and market controls, the reaction to U.S economic policy is not always understood well enough.

To say that tariffs caused the Great Depression as in this brief opinion piece  might not be a sound idea.  Jerome Powell admits we can't know where the economy will go with Trump's tariffs. We have to wait.  Bill Gross does warn that tariffs might cause stagflation, that tariffs are a bad idea.

Yes, how tariffs made the Great Depression worse is an accepted fact by economic scholars and historians.  But these experts may not accept that tariffs were the original cause. 

What bothers me (I may have said this before) is how Democrats like to equate Trump and Hoover.  For example, all of the corruption, scandals, and tax cuts that happened in Washington 100 years ago preceded Hoover. The stock market crash itself was not caused by Hoover.   Alan Greenspan used to discuss how irrational exuberance will escalate asset values.  That concept is much closer to what lead to the 1929 crash.  Investors were buying stocks on credit.   These were not "value investors"

I am weary of how Democrats like to parrot ideas about Hoover without understanding history.  Hoover was in a class by himself comparted to King Baby.  Hoover had many admirable  accomplishments in his life and was already well known and admired around the world before he became President.  He was a famous mining engineer.  He played a role in international relief efforts during World War I, helping many Europeans avoid starvation.

I recommend anyone heading down I-80 in Iowa stop at the Hoover Library to learn another side of Hoover, what kind of man Hoover was.

Yes, politicians and some historians like to trot out a lot of bad policy decisions they assign to Hoover, that make him seem pretty evil, but there was a good side to the man, a side that Trump will never achieve.  Donald Trump will never accomplish what Hoover did in his life.

 

 

 

 

I was surprised about all that.  My simplistic idea of Hoover was he was the guy who screwed up the Depression.   A client in Iowa took me to his Presidential museum years ago.  As you state, he had an admirable history of achievement and humanitarianism.  This guy is not Donald Trump.

You can also make a good case he get left holding the bag for a problem he did not cause.

That said, it is fair to go after him for how he dealt with the problem.  His policies versus the New Deal was a very stark comparison.  Which is why the New Deal political coalition lasted so long.  I don't think we have to worry about Trump's 49.8 % coalition lasting as long as FDR's.  😉

[Pete1111]

4 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

 

I was surprised about all that.  My simplistic idea of Hoover was he was the guy who screwed up the Depression.   A client in Iowa took me to his Presidential museum years ago.  As you state, he had an admirable history of achievement and humanitarianism.  This guy is not Donald Trump.

You can also make a good case he get left holding the bag for a problem he did not cause.

That said, it is fair to go after him for how he dealt with the problem.  His policies versus the New Deal was a very stark comparison.  Which is why the New Deal political coalition lasted so long.  I don't think we have to worry about Trump's 49.8 % coalition lasting as long as FDR's.  😉

I would like to think Hoover followed some bad advice, how he reacted to the Great Depression.   Certainly some very unfair decisions came from his administration.  Knowing his background, an orphan that came from simple means, it is difficult to think of him as the kind of scoundrel Trump can be.   The small home he grew up in is within view of his grave, his plan to show he never forgot humble beginnings.

One doesn't hear much anymore how drought (the Dust Bowl)  made the depression much worse and that WWII was a key factor that ended economic depression.

Banking reform and New Deal programs were definitely needed.  Roosevelt guided in the right direction. 

Growing up, I remember holidays where relatives that were kids back then, reminiscing about getting by.  Raising chickens in the backyard, trapping skunks, raccoons and rats to turn in for a small bounty, backyard gardening, canning and so on.  

I should revise one thing above, that Hoover Library is closed for remodel, and will reopen sometime next year.

His granddaughter, Margaret Hoover had visited there just prior to my touring.