Trump's plan for young American men: higher prices, fewer well paying jobs, and maybe you get to die.

[stevenkesslar]

 

Do you approve or disapprove of the U.S. attacks on Iran on Saturday?

 

Something funny happened on the way to the 2024 election.

It was broadly assumed that young voters would put the final nail in Trump's coffin, and lift up Democrats.  Just like they had in 2020 and 2022.

If Democrat David Shor's polling is right, Trump for sure won 18 year old White men and women in 2024.  And he may have barely won 18 year old non-White men as well.  The only group of 18 year olds Harris won were women of color, if Shor is right.

This is of course horror to Democrats like Shor and me.  And an existential threat to The Emerging Democratic Majority.

Shor has a pretty KISS explanation for what went wrong.  Inflation.  High rent and mortgage rates.  Gas prices.  Food prices.  Excessive lockdowns.   

It's not exactly a fact.  But we know most incumbent parties across the globe that presided over COVID + inflation got their asses kicked.  To me the telling exception was Mexico, where AMLO waged a war FOR the working class during COVID.  And his successor, a Jewish woman in a supposedly macho Catholic culture, won in a landslide.  She is still wildly popular today.  And Mexicans disapprove of Trump more than any other nation in the world.

So the verdict is out.  But I think Trump is fucking his party over big time with young men.  They wanted lower rent, affordable homes, and the ability to buy a big ass truck.  They got war instead.

That poll was taken just as the war started.  But I think there is value in knowing what people's first gut reaction was.  It does not surprise me that the younger the voter, the less likely they were to express support for starting a war of choice.

The interesting question now is, what would turn this around and make young men support Trump or Vance more?

Higher gas prices?

A big stock market correction, so the one way they can increase their net worth suffers?

A war-driven recession that, along with AI, will make finding a good paying job even harder?

Boots on the ground?

Maybe young men just want a war to go fight and die in.  Or not.

Everything Trump touches dies.  Including his shot at a Republican majority he has never once won.  In election after election young men are now turning strongly against him.