Democrats Need BTE

[stevenkesslar]

 

Sure.  I'd step inside with him.

 

 

Oops!

Democrats need BTE.  Big Tent Energy.

Elissa Slotkin has BTE.  The outgoing more centrist types like Sen. Peters and Gov. Whitmer weighed in for Haley Stevens.  But Slotkin kept her mouth shut.  She is a proven BTE type. Because she had to be to win her House district for several cycles.  Which a Republican then won in 2024, when she won her narrow Senate race.  The progressives got their preferred candidate, Sunrise Movement co-founder William Lawrence,  for her old House seat.  So she will have to do some heavy lifting this fall putting the embrace of a moderate Democrat on two clearly lefty candidates.

Pete Buttigieg has BTE.   He just explicitly refused to tell Politico who he voted for in the primary.  He said his priority is to unify afterward.  Pete and Chasten always add a certain Gay Grace to these things.

Abdul has BDE and Gym Bro Energy.  And he is cocky.  That may not be helpful.  The last thing that came up on the radar with him nationally is the "ogre on the pike" comment, which he said was directed at Fetterman.  Not exactly a warm embrace of the moderates he needs to win the primary, let alone the general election.

I'm delighted with the results.  They could not have sent a clearer message that both warring tribes of the Democratic Party need each other to win.  So either we listen, or we lose.  The pain of 2024 is so deep, in part because it was a close election in which Trump never got 50 % of the vote, that I am betting Democrats will listen.

Real Clear Politics says Democrats are now 7.2 % ahead in the generic Congressional ballot, which is just a tad ahead of the 6.9 % advantage in 2018.  As my Sister In Cock and I keep saying, every inch counts!

I didn't follow the Missouri House race at all.  But it suggests Blacks don't want to get involved in the AIPAC Wars.  That said, AIPAC spent $30 million to defeat El-Sayed, and they got their ass kicked.  So that worked out well, too, in my opinion.  El-Sayed keeps saying he wants to focus on putting money in your pocket, not bombs for Israel.  But if this becomes an anti-Israel crusade with the goal of Fetterman's head on a pike, that is a self-destructive loser.

And the same pattern emerged as NYC.  El-Sayed won because wealthier and college-educated voters wanted him to.  Blacks, the working class, and rural voters went for Stevens. 

That may be good news for Democrats.  I don't know how well turnout in college towns actually went.  But the NYT graphic makes clear that El-Sayed did best in counties with college towns. If he can get them out in droves in November, without alienating more moderate voters, that may be the ticket to victory.

When I was fluffing Senator BDE this morning 🫢 I asked him if he had a message for Michigan's college students.  Sometimes Jon is so predictable!

[stevenkesslar]

 

This is a list from GovTrack of the most politically right to most liberal Democrat.  Bernie is the most liberal.  But he is not listed since he is technically not a Democrat.

 

Senate Democrats
most politically right
#1	0.55	Sen. Warnock [D-GA, 2021-2028]
#2	0.54	Sen. Kim [D-NJ, 2024-2030]
#3	0.54	Sen. Peters [D-MI, 2015-2026]
#4	0.53	Sen. Schiff [D-CA, 2024-2030]
#5	0.51	Sen. Hassan [D-NH, 2017-2028]
#6	0.48	Sen. Kelly [D-AZ, 2020-2028]
#7	0.48	Sen. Tester [D-MT, 2007-2024]
#8	0.47	Sen. Ossoff [D-GA, 2021-2026]
#9	0.44	Sen. Rosen [D-NV, 2019-2030]
#10	0.42	Sen. Carper [D-DE, 2001-2024]
#11	0.42	Sen. Warner [D-VA, 2009-2026]
#12	0.42	Sen. Hickenlooper [D-CO, 2021-2026]
#13	0.41	Sen. Coons [D-DE, 2010-2026]
#14	0.38	Sen. Bennet [D-CO, 2009-2028]
#15	0.36	Sen. Shaheen [D-NH, 2009-2026]
#16	0.33	Sen. Cortez Masto [D-NV, 2017-2028]
#17	0.33	Sen. Schumer [D-NY, 1999-2028]
#18	0.32	Sen. Kaine [D-VA, 2013-2030]
#19	0.32	Sen. Cantwell [D-WA, 2001-2030]
#20	0.29	Sen. Casey [D-PA, 2007-2024]
#21	0.27	Sen. Cardin [D-MD, 2007-2024]
#22	0.27	Sen. Schatz [D-HI, 2012-2028]
#23	0.26	Sen. Luján [D-NM, 2021-2026]
#24	0.26	Sen. Heinrich [D-NM, 2013-2030]
#25	0.26	Sen. Stabenow [D-MI, 2001-2024]
#26	0.25	Sen. Klobuchar [D-MN, 2007-2030]
#27	0.24	Sen. Gillibrand [D-NY, 2009-2030]
#28	0.24	Sen. Murray [D-WA, 1993-2028]
#29	0.24	Sen. Baldwin [D-WI, 2013-2030]
#30	0.22	Sen. Reed [D-RI, 1997-2026]
#31	0.22	Sen. Brown [D-OH, 2007-2024]
#32	0.20	Sen. Fetterman [D-PA, 2023-2028]
#33	0.20	Sen. Murphy [D-CT, 2013-2030]
#34	0.18	Sen. Smith [D-MN, 2018-2026]
#35	0.17	Sen. Durbin [D-IL, 1997-2026]
#36	0.16	Sen. Duckworth [D-IL, 2017-2028]
#37	0.15	Sen. Hirono [D-HI, 2013-2030]
#38	0.14	Sen. Whitehouse [D-RI, 2007-2030]
#39	0.13	Sen. Van Hollen [D-MD, 2017-2028]
#40	0.13	Sen. Padilla [D-CA, 2021-2028]
#41	0.12	Sen. Booker [D-NJ, 2013-2026]
#42	0.10	Sen. Wyden [D-OR, 1996-2028]
#43	0.10	Sen. Markey [D-MA, 2013-2026]
#44	0.08	Sen. Warren [D-MA, 2013-2030]
#45	0.08	Sen. Blumenthal [D-CT, 2011-2028]
#46	0.07	Sen. Merkley [D-OR, 2009-2026]
#47	0.06	Sen. Welch [D-VT, 2023-2028]

 

That doesn't surprise me.  GovTrack doesn't really spell out examples of what makes you more politically right.  But sponsoring lots of bipartisan bills is one factor they state.  And I know Warnock and Ossoff do that a lot, and brag about it, in a state that is still right of center. 

If it were up to me to pick the 2028 nominees, I might pick Warnock/Ossoff - in that order.  You never want too much BDE.  The "Rev" thing tempers it.  El-Sayed for Veep?  That may be an inch too far.  Or several inches, if my Sister In Cock is right.

My point is that if El-Sayed went after Rev. Warnock as an ogre whose head we want on a pike, it would be political suicide.  I'd rather see Warnock be President.

[stevenkesslar]

One more interesting article

How Abdul El-Sayed won Michigan: Big turnout, liberal towns, walkup votes

The general election will definitely be a test of how much Democrats can count on young voters.  And whether 2024 was the change of a trend that young voters are more Democratic, and demography is destiny.  Or whether 2024 was just an interruption due to inflation and COVID and Biden seeming old and senile.  Did I mention Trump seems old and senile?

Nate Silver already weighed in that primary polls for Congressional races are notoriously unreliable.  But Michigan early voting started in early July, I think.  There was a poll in early July showing Stevens was +7.   All the polls showing El-Sayed was up by double digits came after early voting started.  

Only 5 % of ballots were cast on election day.  The results are not necessarily inconsistent with the polling showing El-Sayed was way ahead.  That report says Stevens won about 52 % of the vote in the Detroit metro counties overall.  But El-Sayed won 59 % of the votes cast on election day in the same counties.

It's the reverse of Texas 2020, which as much as anything killed Bernie Sanders. Bernie won the early voting ballots.  But the Biden surge  at the end when "ABB" (Anybody But Bernie) kicked in delivered Texas to Biden.  It is not bad news that the late surge in Michigan went to El-Sayed.

If I had to guess, it's going to be harder to turn out young voters than Black voters in November.  And it doesn't hurt that Donovan McKinney won narrowly.  So if El-Sayed is the BDE/Gym Bro/BTE+/LGBTQIABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ+ 🤢 candidate who can get young people to vote in November, I'm optimistic.

[Suckrates]

9 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:

One more interesting article

How Abdul El-Sayed won Michigan: Big turnout, liberal towns, walkup votes

The general election will definitely be a test of how much Democrats can count on young voters.  And whether 2024 was the change of a trend that young voters are more Democratic, and demography is destiny.  Or whether 2024 was just an interruption due to inflation and COVID and Biden seeming old and senile.  Did I mention Trump seems old and senile?

Nate Silver already weighed in that primary polls for Congressional races are notoriously unreliable.  But Michigan early voting started in early July, I think.  There was a poll in early July showing Stevens was +7.   All the polls showing El-Sayed was up by double digits came after early voting started.  

Only 5 % of ballots were cast on election day.  The results are not necessarily inconsistent with the polling showing El-Sayed was way ahead.  That report says Stevens won about 52 % of the vote in the Detroit metro counties overall.  But El-Sayed won 59 % of the votes cast on election day in the same counties.

It's the reverse of Texas 2020, which as much as anything killed Bernie Sanders. Bernie won the early voting ballots.  But the Biden surge  at the end when "ABB" (Anybody But Bernie) kicked in delivered Texas to Biden.  It is not bad news that the late surge in Michigan went to El-Sayed.

If I had to guess, it's going to be harder to turn out young voters than Black voters in November.  And it doesn't hurt that Donovan McKinney won narrowly.  So if El-Sayed is the BDE/Gym Bro/BTE+/LGBTQIABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ+ 🤢 candidate who can get young people to vote in November, I'm optimistic.

 

But Sis,  he only won by a hair..... Not sure that is so encouraging ?   But I suppose a Win is a Win (for now)  ...RIGHT ?    

If Stevens voters dont mosy over to Sayeds tent, and just dont vote because they dont like either choice......  WE LOSE. 

[stevenkesslar]

1 hour ago, Suckrates said:

But Sis,  he only won by a hair..... Not sure that is so encouraging ?   But I suppose a Win is a Win (for now)  ...RIGHT ?    

 

 

Ryan Grim, unfortunately, has a bad last name.  And he kind of looks the part.  But he comes closer than most journalists to reflecting my own political ideology, and data wonkishness.  He says some things that I timestamped at 35:30, at the very ends of that video, that I think really nailed it.

His main point is that if you predicted this around March, he would have said no fucking way!  To summarize, at that point it looked like there was no way El-Sayed could win a one on one race against either moderate.  McMorrow, who was tied or leading at the time, attacked him as a radical anti-Israel guy that should be denounced.  Appropriately enough, in The Jewish Insider.  She nailed her own coffin shut, as it turned out.

Grim says the same with the two DSA-endorsed/progressive House candidates who won:  Lawrence and McKinney.  That wasn't at all obvious in March.

So you are right.  The verdict is out.  But as Krystal Ball notes after Ryan Grim (what names!)  makes his points, this will be THE test of whether the left can deliver the goods in a general election in a swing state or swing district.  If Hong wins the Wisconsin Guv primary, that is even more so.

It's no coincidence this all started around the time the Iran War started.

There's a good question as to whether the Genocide Jew is more genocidal to Palestinians, or mainstream Democrats, or Trump. 

I hope the message that mainstream Democrats get is that the Genocide Jew is deeply committed to killing every mainstream Democrat, and your wife or husband, and your children.  If you are a mainstream elected Democrat. the Genocide Jew will bash your child's brain in.  Even as he tries very hard not to bash your child's brain in as he is bashing your child's brain in.  If the election were in March, Grim is right.  El-Sayed would not have won.  Neither would Lawrence and McKinney, perhaps.  Neither would Hong, if she wins next week.  Thank the Genocide Jew for all these wins.  

Take a bow, you Genocidal Piece Of Shit.

If any Democrat knows how to count votes, and elect Democrats, it is Nancy Pelosi.  It is telling that she voted against sending bombs to the Genocidal Piece Of Shit.

Of course, the Genocide Jew only matters in so far as he was able to bullshit amoeba-brained Donald Trump, strategic peanut, into starting a stupid war.  But Biden and Harris had the same problem.  The Genocide Jew didn't help them in Michigan in 2024. 

So my guess is that the anti-war momentum that kicked this off in March, which only built on the momentum about affordability that got Mamdani elected, will only keep building through November.  If that turns out to be true - HUGE IF - winning races for Senate in Michigan and Maine and Senator BDE's state - and maybe even Earnest Jimmy Texas - will only build more momentum for these types of candidates. 

That's my hope at least.  And I'm an optimist.

You didn't answer my question.  Paul Wellstone and Jeff Merkley were/are incredible optimists who both took out incumbent Republican Senators.  They both also were/are guys who tended to take big risks. 

A close friend of mine tells a great story about a bank-in where Wellstone was supporting farmers being foreclosed on, back when he was a loud mouth nobody.  His wife Sheila told my friend, "Don't let Paul get arrested."  Paul got arrested.

Merkley, when he was a do-gooder nobody, helped me organize a coalition in Portland that took on every bank in town publicly.  I told him be aware bankers could retaliate against you.  And he said he didn't care.  We won everything we wanted plus more.  But they did do something retaliatory to him that was painful at the time.  Five years later he was the leader of the Oregon House and we were allies in crime fighting Enron and getting a great progressive electricity restructuring bill passed. 

Wellstone had BDE.  He actually did wrestle in college.  Merkley does not have BDE.  But I'd argue both had/have  vision + optimism. It got Merkley and Wellstone US Senate seats.  El-Sayed has that.  They will all be among the most progressive members of the US Senate.

El Sayed is not only an optimist.  He is cocky.  Statements about Fetterman being an ogre and and asshole were unforced errors.  And they may have hurt him.  It will certainly not help him build bridges with Democratic moderates. 

Optimism, and vision, will help him.

 

[Suckrates]

1 hour ago, stevenkesslar said:

 

 

Ryan Grim, unfortunately, has a bad last name.  And he kind of looks the part.  But he comes closer than most journalists to reflecting my own political ideology, and data wonkishness.  He says some things that I timestamped at 35:30, at the very ends of that video, that I think really nailed it.

His main point is that if you predicted this around March, he would have said no fucking way!  To summarize, at that point it looked like there was no way El-Sayed could win a one on one race against either moderate.  McMorrow, who was tied or leading at the time, attacked him as a radical anti-Israel guy that should be denounced.  Appropriately enough, in The Jewish Insider.  She nailed her own coffin shut, as it turned out.

Grim says the same with the two DSA-endorsed/progressive House candidates who won:  Lawrence and McKinney.  That wasn't at all obvious in March.

So you are right.  The verdict is out.  But as Krystal Ball notes after Ryan Grim (what names!)  makes his points, this will be THE test of whether the left can deliver the goods in a general election in a swing state or swing district.  If Hong wins the Wisconsin Guv primary, that is even more so.

It's no coincidence this all started around the time the Iran War started.

There's a good question as to whether the Genocide Jew is more genocidal to Palestinians, or mainstream Democrats, or Trump. 

I hope the message that mainstream Democrats get is that the Genocide Jew is deeply committed to killing every mainstream Democrat, and your wife or husband, and your children.  If you are a mainstream elected Democrat. the Genocide Jew will bash your child's brain in.  Even as he tries very hard not to bash your child's brain in as he is bashing your child's brain in.  If the election were in March, Grim is right.  El-Sayed would not have won.  Neither would Lawrence and McKinney, perhaps.  Neither would Hong, if she wins next week.  Thank the Genocide Jew for all these wins.  

Take a bow, you Genocidal Piece Of Shit.

If any Democrat knows how to count votes, and elect Democrats, it is Nancy Pelosi.  It is telling that she voted against sending bombs to the Genocidal Piece Of Shit.

Of course, the Genocide Jew only matters in so far as he was able to bullshit amoeba-brained Donald Trump, strategic peanut, into starting a stupid war.  But Biden and Harris had the same problem.  The Genocide Jew didn't help them in Michigan in 2024. 

So my guess is that the anti-war momentum that kicked this off in March, which only built on the momentum about affordability that got Mamdani elected, will only keep building through November.  If that turns out to be true - HUGE IF - winning races for Senate in Michigan and Maine and Senator BDE's state - and maybe even Earnest Jimmy Texas - will only build more momentum for these types of candidates. 

That's my hope at least.  And I'm an optimist.

You didn't answer my question.  Paul Wellstone and Jeff Merkley were/are incredible optimists who both took out incumbent Republican Senators.  They both also were/are guys who tended to take big risks. 

A close friend of mine tells a great story about a bank-in where Wellstone was supporting farmers being foreclosed on, back when he was a loud mouth nobody.  His wife Sheila told my friend, "Don't let Paul get arrested."  Paul got arrested.

Merkley, when he was a do-gooder nobody, helped me organize a coalition in Portland that took on every bank in town publicly.  I told him be aware bankers could retaliate against you.  And he said he didn't care.  We won everything we wanted plus more.  But they did do something retaliatory to him that was painful at the time.  Five years later he was the leader of the Oregon House and we were allies in crime fighting Enron and getting a great progressive electricity restructuring bill passed. 

Wellstone had BDE.  He actually did wrestle in college.  Merkley does not have BDE.  But I'd argue both had/have  vision + optimism. It got Merkley and Wellstone US Senate seats.  El-Sayed has that.  They will all be among the most progressive members of the US Senate.

El Sayed is not only an optimist.  He is cocky.  Statements about Fetterman being an ogre and and asshole were unforced errors.  And they may have hurt him.  It will certainly not help him build bridges with Democratic moderates. 

Optimism, and vision, will help him.

 

Dont get me started on that brain challenged, Munchin-light, traitor and Dem disruptor...  While Sayeds comments about The Fet may not bring about a KumBayA with the Dems,  nothing he said was "wrong"....   For me The Fet is an attention seeking, disrespectful outlier, and really has to place in politics....  Perhaps he should take his hoodie, shorts and flip-flops and be a contestant on Survivor ?     or Naked and Afraid ?   

[stevenkesslar]

Just to reinforce my affection for long-winded White data geeks who have zero BDE, here is the right-wing equivalent of Ryan Grim:  Sean Trende at RCP.

This also reinforces the Big Tent Energy theme of this thread.

 

I think Trende nailed everything he said in the first part of this video about the election yesterday, which is about the first 20 minutes.

The fact that it is now almost an expectation that "DSA adjacent" candidates will pick off anyone they target is itself a reflection of a massive shift.  As he says, if you compare this to the Tea Party, they didn't pick off everyone every time.  He cites John McCain as an example of a guy with true independent cred who dispatched a Tea Party primary opponent in Arizona easily in 2010.

But his overall conclusion is that all the signs point to this being like 2018, when the Democrats had a similar lead of about 8 % in the generic ballot.  There's discussion throughout the first 20 minutes of Washington state.  I took it as a good sign that moderate Marie Gluesenkamp Perez dispatched her DSA opponent easily in a jungle primary.  She'd be a good comparison to McCain as a Democrat with true independent cred in a swing district.

Trende talks about Virginia House 1 as an example of a pretty solid Republican House seat that he thinks is now in play.  The incumbent Republican, Robert Whitman, won that seat 56/44 in 2024.  If that is now a 50/50 seat where a Democrat could win, that's a huge shift. 

They also make an interesting "silver lining in the cloud" argument about Virginia.  The Democratic Virginia gerrymander that was thrown out by Republican judges would have made Democrat House members vulnerable in a good R year, anyway, Trende says.  This way, Democrats might still win two or even three House seats in Virginia.  But they will be somewhat easier to hold long term when the tide turns again.  Assuming that DSA-adjacent progressives and old school moderates can cohabitate a happy (enough) big tent, that is.

The most important fact Trende cites earlier in the interview is that conservatives outnumber liberals two to one.  

 

What Trende said about 2 to 1 is debatable.  It was more true when Clinton was POTUS, which was Trende's point.  He said Clinton succeeded by building a coalition between liberals and moderates.  Trende did not mention this.  But it often pissed off liberals and Gays.  

I'd argue Clinton then Obama then Biden managed to also nudge policy a bit more to the liberal end, even though liberals are not a majority.  That said, I also just explained why Democrats can't keep Senate seats in more centrist states like Iowa and Montana and North Carolina - all states that voted for Obama at least once.

Unrelated, Mark Halperin has this monthly list of which Democrat is most likely to be nominee in 2028.  And it is all over the map.  Just weeks ago he was saying Bernie may run in 2028 and may be unstoppable.  For some reason he now put Shapiro at the top of the list.

The math above suggests that moderate Democrats are going to prevail nationally.  Which is what happened in 2016 and 2020.  Even though most Republicans would not call Clinton or Biden moderates.  They were compared to Bernie or Warren.  

Running Joel Shapiro would be a clever thing to do, if what Democrats care most about is winning.  You can argue that if Harris picked him, she would have won.  You can also argue that Genocide Joel would have cost her more votes in Michigan.  Either way, it looks like Shapiro is headed to a blow out win in 2026.  El-Sayed won't win in a blowout.

Shapiro and El-Sayed are both handsome guys.  And Shapiro also has BDE.  It would not be a marriage made in heaven.  But stranger marriages have happened.  Just ask Mike Pence.

That said, if we have to have a Jew, can we please have Ossoff?  😉

[stevenkesslar]

48 minutes ago, Suckrates said:

Dont get me started on that brain challenged, Munchin-light, traitor and Dem disruptor...  While Sayeds comments about The Fet may not bring about a KumBayA with the Dems,  nothing he said was "wrong"....   For me The Fet is an attention seeking, disrespectful outlier, and really has to place in politics....  Perhaps he should take his hoodie, shorts and flip-flops and be a contestant on Survivor ?     or Naked and Afraid ?   

My heart bleeds for you, Sis.

I won't argue with you about his lack of respect.

But, may I suggest, as selfless a public servant as you are, and as generous as you are in altruistically meeting certain intimate needs of BDE Democrats, that this is really about The Fet's total lack of respect for even the most basic of fashion principles?

 

And please don't be mad at me for what I said above.  If we have to take a Pennsylvania moderate to win in 2028, at least Shapiro has the decency to wear a suit, and look pretty good in it.  Maybe not quite BDE, like I said.  But hardly a brute.

 

[stevenkesslar]

 

 

 

Why am I not surprised?

Big Tent Chuck Schumer's Senate Majority PAC apparently got the memo.

They already released this.

 

 

 

 

 

[Suckrates]

14 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

My heart bleeds for you, Sis.

I won't argue with you about his lack of respect.

But, may I suggest, as selfless a public servant as you are, and as generous as you are in altruistically meeting certain intimate needs of BDE Democrats, that this is really about The Fet's total lack of respect for even the most basic of fashion principles?

 

And please don't be mad at me for what I said above.  If we have to take a Pennsylvania moderate to win in 2028, at least Shapiro has the decency to wear a suit, and look pretty good in it.  Maybe not quite BDE, like I said.  But hardly a brute.

 

 

I am SURE you knew when I mispoke "Munchin-light" that I really meant MANCHIN-light ?   But that doesnt change the fact The Fet is a brain challenged, neanderthal who does NO have the Dems best interests at heart....  Yes, disrespectful, arrogant and extremely "out-of-place"  in a Very serious role.   

There are people you dislike when you hear them speak,  but The Fet is a person easily despisable "just by looking at him"....

And the pic of him you chose to post was "perfect" illustration of the person he IS.....  One that does not give a fuck about the role he serves because he feels "who he is" is a much bigger force......

Sasquatch feet is a lot to have to swallow for 2028,  and I am used to "taking Big loads". (Mamdani is a huge cummer)