Members stevenkesslar Posted yesterday at 04:05 PM Members Posted yesterday at 04:05 PM Sure. I'd step inside with him. Oops! Democrats need BTE. Big Tent Energy. Elissa Slotkin has BTE. The outgoing more centrist types like Sen. Peters and Gov. Whitmer weighed in for Haley Stevens. But Slotkin kept her mouth shut. She is a proven BTE type. Because she had to be to win her House district for several cycles. Which a Republican then won in 2024, when she won her narrow Senate race. The progressives got their preferred candidate, Sunrise Movement co-founder William Lawrence, for her old House seat. So she will have to do some heavy lifting this fall putting the embrace of a moderate Democrat on two clearly lefty candidates. Pete Buttigieg has BTE. He just explicitly refused to tell Politico who he voted for in the primary. He said his priority is to unify afterward. Pete and Chasten always add a certain Gay Grace to these things. Abdul has BDE and Gym Bro Energy. And he is cocky. That may not be helpful. The last thing that came up on the radar with him nationally is the "ogre on the pike" comment, which he said was directed at Fetterman. Not exactly a warm embrace of the moderates he needs to win the primary, let alone the general election. I'm delighted with the results. They could not have sent a clearer message that both warring tribes of the Democratic Party need each other to win. So either we listen, or we lose. The pain of 2024 is so deep, in part because it was a close election in which Trump never got 50 % of the vote, that I am betting Democrats will listen. Real Clear Politics says Democrats are now 7.2 % ahead in the generic Congressional ballot, which is just a tad ahead of the 6.9 % advantage in 2018. As my Sister In Cock and I keep saying, every inch counts! I didn't follow the Missouri House race at all. But it suggests Blacks don't want to get involved in the AIPAC Wars. That said, AIPAC spent $30 million to defeat El-Sayed, and they got their ass kicked. So that worked out well, too, in my opinion. El-Sayed keeps saying he wants to focus on putting money in your pocket, not bombs for Israel. But if this becomes an anti-Israel crusade with the goal of Fetterman's head on a pike, that is a self-destructive loser. And the same pattern emerged as NYC. El-Sayed won because wealthier and college-educated voters wanted him to. Blacks, the working class, and rural voters went for Stevens. That may be good news for Democrats. I don't know how well turnout in college towns actually went. But the NYT graphic makes clear that El-Sayed did best in counties with college towns. If he can get them out in droves in November, without alienating more moderate voters, that may be the ticket to victory. When I was fluffing Senator BDE this morning 🫢 I asked him if he had a message for Michigan's college students. Sometimes Jon is so predictable! Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted yesterday at 04:23 PM Author Members Posted yesterday at 04:23 PM This is a list from GovTrack of the most politically right to most liberal Democrat. Bernie is the most liberal. But he is not listed since he is technically not a Democrat. Senate Democrats most politically right #1 0.55 Sen. Warnock [D-GA, 2021-2028] #2 0.54 Sen. Kim [D-NJ, 2024-2030] #3 0.54 Sen. Peters [D-MI, 2015-2026] #4 0.53 Sen. Schiff [D-CA, 2024-2030] #5 0.51 Sen. Hassan [D-NH, 2017-2028] #6 0.48 Sen. Kelly [D-AZ, 2020-2028] #7 0.48 Sen. Tester [D-MT, 2007-2024] #8 0.47 Sen. Ossoff [D-GA, 2021-2026] #9 0.44 Sen. Rosen [D-NV, 2019-2030] #10 0.42 Sen. Carper [D-DE, 2001-2024] #11 0.42 Sen. Warner [D-VA, 2009-2026] #12 0.42 Sen. Hickenlooper [D-CO, 2021-2026] #13 0.41 Sen. Coons [D-DE, 2010-2026] #14 0.38 Sen. Bennet [D-CO, 2009-2028] #15 0.36 Sen. Shaheen [D-NH, 2009-2026] #16 0.33 Sen. Cortez Masto [D-NV, 2017-2028] #17 0.33 Sen. Schumer [D-NY, 1999-2028] #18 0.32 Sen. Kaine [D-VA, 2013-2030] #19 0.32 Sen. Cantwell [D-WA, 2001-2030] #20 0.29 Sen. Casey [D-PA, 2007-2024] #21 0.27 Sen. Cardin [D-MD, 2007-2024] #22 0.27 Sen. Schatz [D-HI, 2012-2028] #23 0.26 Sen. Luján [D-NM, 2021-2026] #24 0.26 Sen. Heinrich [D-NM, 2013-2030] #25 0.26 Sen. Stabenow [D-MI, 2001-2024] #26 0.25 Sen. Klobuchar [D-MN, 2007-2030] #27 0.24 Sen. Gillibrand [D-NY, 2009-2030] #28 0.24 Sen. Murray [D-WA, 1993-2028] #29 0.24 Sen. Baldwin [D-WI, 2013-2030] #30 0.22 Sen. Reed [D-RI, 1997-2026] #31 0.22 Sen. Brown [D-OH, 2007-2024] #32 0.20 Sen. Fetterman [D-PA, 2023-2028] #33 0.20 Sen. Murphy [D-CT, 2013-2030] #34 0.18 Sen. Smith [D-MN, 2018-2026] #35 0.17 Sen. Durbin [D-IL, 1997-2026] #36 0.16 Sen. Duckworth [D-IL, 2017-2028] #37 0.15 Sen. Hirono [D-HI, 2013-2030] #38 0.14 Sen. Whitehouse [D-RI, 2007-2030] #39 0.13 Sen. Van Hollen [D-MD, 2017-2028] #40 0.13 Sen. Padilla [D-CA, 2021-2028] #41 0.12 Sen. Booker [D-NJ, 2013-2026] #42 0.10 Sen. Wyden [D-OR, 1996-2028] #43 0.10 Sen. Markey [D-MA, 2013-2026] #44 0.08 Sen. Warren [D-MA, 2013-2030] #45 0.08 Sen. Blumenthal [D-CT, 2011-2028] #46 0.07 Sen. Merkley [D-OR, 2009-2026] #47 0.06 Sen. Welch [D-VT, 2023-2028] That doesn't surprise me. GovTrack doesn't really spell out examples of what makes you more politically right. But sponsoring lots of bipartisan bills is one factor they state. And I know Warnock and Ossoff do that a lot, and brag about it, in a state that is still right of center. If it were up to me to pick the 2028 nominees, I might pick Warnock/Ossoff - in that order. You never want too much BDE. The "Rev" thing tempers it. El-Sayed for Veep? That may be an inch too far. Or several inches, if my Sister In Cock is right. My point is that if El-Sayed went after Rev. Warnock as an ogre whose head we want on a pike, it would be political suicide. I'd rather see Warnock be President. Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted yesterday at 05:45 PM Author Members Posted yesterday at 05:45 PM One more interesting article How Abdul El-Sayed won Michigan: Big turnout, liberal towns, walkup votes The general election will definitely be a test of how much Democrats can count on young voters. And whether 2024 was the change of a trend that young voters are more Democratic, and demography is destiny. Or whether 2024 was just an interruption due to inflation and COVID and Biden seeming old and senile. Did I mention Trump seems old and senile? Nate Silver already weighed in that primary polls for Congressional races are notoriously unreliable. But Michigan early voting started in early July, I think. There was a poll in early July showing Stevens was +7. All the polls showing El-Sayed was up by double digits came after early voting started. Only 5 % of ballots were cast on election day. The results are not necessarily inconsistent with the polling showing El-Sayed was way ahead. That report says Stevens won about 52 % of the vote in the Detroit metro counties overall. But El-Sayed won 59 % of the votes cast on election day in the same counties. It's the reverse of Texas 2020, which as much as anything killed Bernie Sanders. Bernie won the early voting ballots. But the Biden surge at the end when "ABB" (Anybody But Bernie) kicked in delivered Texas to Biden. It is not bad news that the late surge in Michigan went to El-Sayed. If I had to guess, it's going to be harder to turn out young voters than Black voters in November. And it doesn't hurt that Donovan McKinney won narrowly. So if El-Sayed is the BDE/Gym Bro/BTE+/LGBTQIABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ+ 🤢 candidate who can get young people to vote in November, I'm optimistic. Quote
Members Suckrates Posted yesterday at 05:57 PM Members Posted yesterday at 05:57 PM 9 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said: One more interesting article How Abdul El-Sayed won Michigan: Big turnout, liberal towns, walkup votes The general election will definitely be a test of how much Democrats can count on young voters. And whether 2024 was the change of a trend that young voters are more Democratic, and demography is destiny. Or whether 2024 was just an interruption due to inflation and COVID and Biden seeming old and senile. Did I mention Trump seems old and senile? Nate Silver already weighed in that primary polls for Congressional races are notoriously unreliable. But Michigan early voting started in early July, I think. There was a poll in early July showing Stevens was +7. All the polls showing El-Sayed was up by double digits came after early voting started. Only 5 % of ballots were cast on election day. The results are not necessarily inconsistent with the polling showing El-Sayed was way ahead. That report says Stevens won about 52 % of the vote in the Detroit metro counties overall. But El-Sayed won 59 % of the votes cast on election day in the same counties. It's the reverse of Texas 2020, which as much as anything killed Bernie Sanders. Bernie won the early voting ballots. But the Biden surge at the end when "ABB" (Anybody But Bernie) kicked in delivered Texas to Biden. It is not bad news that the late surge in Michigan went to El-Sayed. If I had to guess, it's going to be harder to turn out young voters than Black voters in November. And it doesn't hurt that Donovan McKinney won narrowly. So if El-Sayed is the BDE/Gym Bro/BTE+/LGBTQIABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ+ 🤢 candidate who can get young people to vote in November, I'm optimistic. But Sis, he only won by a hair..... Not sure that is so encouraging ? But I suppose a Win is a Win (for now) ...RIGHT ? If Stevens voters dont mosy over to Sayeds tent, and just dont vote because they dont like either choice...... WE LOSE. Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted yesterday at 07:43 PM Author Members Posted yesterday at 07:43 PM 1 hour ago, Suckrates said: But Sis, he only won by a hair..... Not sure that is so encouraging ? But I suppose a Win is a Win (for now) ...RIGHT ? Ryan Grim, unfortunately, has a bad last name. And he kind of looks the part. But he comes closer than most journalists to reflecting my own political ideology, and data wonkishness. He says some things that I timestamped at 35:30, at the very ends of that video, that I think really nailed it. His main point is that if you predicted this around March, he would have said no fucking way! To summarize, at that point it looked like there was no way El-Sayed could win a one on one race against either moderate. McMorrow, who was tied or leading at the time, attacked him as a radical anti-Israel guy that should be denounced. Appropriately enough, in The Jewish Insider. She nailed her own coffin shut, as it turned out. Grim says the same with the two DSA-endorsed/progressive House candidates who won: Lawrence and McKinney. That wasn't at all obvious in March. So you are right. The verdict is out. But as Krystal Ball notes after Ryan Grim (what names!) makes his points, this will be THE test of whether the left can deliver the goods in a general election in a swing state or swing district. If Hong wins the Wisconsin Guv primary, that is even more so. It's no coincidence this all started around the time the Iran War started. There's a good question as to whether the Genocide Jew is more genocidal to Palestinians, or mainstream Democrats, or Trump. I hope the message that mainstream Democrats get is that the Genocide Jew is deeply committed to killing every mainstream Democrat, and your wife or husband, and your children. If you are a mainstream elected Democrat. the Genocide Jew will bash your child's brain in. Even as he tries very hard not to bash your child's brain in as he is bashing your child's brain in. If the election were in March, Grim is right. El-Sayed would not have won. Neither would Lawrence and McKinney, perhaps. Neither would Hong, if she wins next week. Thank the Genocide Jew for all these wins. Take a bow, you Genocidal Piece Of Shit. If any Democrat knows how to count votes, and elect Democrats, it is Nancy Pelosi. It is telling that she voted against sending bombs to the Genocidal Piece Of Shit. Of course, the Genocide Jew only matters in so far as he was able to bullshit amoeba-brained Donald Trump, strategic peanut, into starting a stupid war. But Biden and Harris had the same problem. The Genocide Jew didn't help them in Michigan in 2024. So my guess is that the anti-war momentum that kicked this off in March, which only built on the momentum about affordability that got Mamdani elected, will only keep building through November. If that turns out to be true - HUGE IF - winning races for Senate in Michigan and Maine and Senator BDE's state - and maybe even Earnest Jimmy Texas - will only build more momentum for these types of candidates. That's my hope at least. And I'm an optimist. You didn't answer my question. Paul Wellstone and Jeff Merkley were/are incredible optimists who both took out incumbent Republican Senators. They both also were/are guys who tended to take big risks. A close friend of mine tells a great story about a bank-in where Wellstone was supporting farmers being foreclosed on, back when he was a loud mouth nobody. His wife Sheila told my friend, "Don't let Paul get arrested." Paul got arrested. Merkley, when he was a do-gooder nobody, helped me organize a coalition in Portland that took on every bank in town publicly. I told him be aware bankers could retaliate against you. And he said he didn't care. We won everything we wanted plus more. But they did do something retaliatory to him that was painful at the time. Five years later he was the leader of the Oregon House and we were allies in crime fighting Enron and getting a great progressive electricity restructuring bill passed. Wellstone had BDE. He actually did wrestle in college. Merkley does not have BDE. But I'd argue both had/have vision + optimism. It got Merkley and Wellstone US Senate seats. El-Sayed has that. They will all be among the most progressive members of the US Senate. El Sayed is not only an optimist. He is cocky. Statements about Fetterman being an ogre and and asshole were unforced errors. And they may have hurt him. It will certainly not help him build bridges with Democratic moderates. Optimism, and vision, will help him. Quote
Members Suckrates Posted yesterday at 09:25 PM Members Posted yesterday at 09:25 PM 1 hour ago, stevenkesslar said: Ryan Grim, unfortunately, has a bad last name. And he kind of looks the part. But he comes closer than most journalists to reflecting my own political ideology, and data wonkishness. He says some things that I timestamped at 35:30, at the very ends of that video, that I think really nailed it. His main point is that if you predicted this around March, he would have said no fucking way! To summarize, at that point it looked like there was no way El-Sayed could win a one on one race against either moderate. McMorrow, who was tied or leading at the time, attacked him as a radical anti-Israel guy that should be denounced. Appropriately enough, in The Jewish Insider. She nailed her own coffin shut, as it turned out. Grim says the same with the two DSA-endorsed/progressive House candidates who won: Lawrence and McKinney. That wasn't at all obvious in March. So you are right. The verdict is out. But as Krystal Ball notes after Ryan Grim (what names!) makes his points, this will be THE test of whether the left can deliver the goods in a general election in a swing state or swing district. If Hong wins the Wisconsin Guv primary, that is even more so. It's no coincidence this all started around the time the Iran War started. There's a good question as to whether the Genocide Jew is more genocidal to Palestinians, or mainstream Democrats, or Trump. I hope the message that mainstream Democrats get is that the Genocide Jew is deeply committed to killing every mainstream Democrat, and your wife or husband, and your children. If you are a mainstream elected Democrat. the Genocide Jew will bash your child's brain in. Even as he tries very hard not to bash your child's brain in as he is bashing your child's brain in. If the election were in March, Grim is right. El-Sayed would not have won. Neither would Lawrence and McKinney, perhaps. Neither would Hong, if she wins next week. Thank the Genocide Jew for all these wins. Take a bow, you Genocidal Piece Of Shit. If any Democrat knows how to count votes, and elect Democrats, it is Nancy Pelosi. It is telling that she voted against sending bombs to the Genocidal Piece Of Shit. Of course, the Genocide Jew only matters in so far as he was able to bullshit amoeba-brained Donald Trump, strategic peanut, into starting a stupid war. But Biden and Harris had the same problem. The Genocide Jew didn't help them in Michigan in 2024. So my guess is that the anti-war momentum that kicked this off in March, which only built on the momentum about affordability that got Mamdani elected, will only keep building through November. If that turns out to be true - HUGE IF - winning races for Senate in Michigan and Maine and Senator BDE's state - and maybe even Earnest Jimmy Texas - will only build more momentum for these types of candidates. That's my hope at least. And I'm an optimist. You didn't answer my question. Paul Wellstone and Jeff Merkley were/are incredible optimists who both took out incumbent Republican Senators. They both also were/are guys who tended to take big risks. A close friend of mine tells a great story about a bank-in where Wellstone was supporting farmers being foreclosed on, back when he was a loud mouth nobody. His wife Sheila told my friend, "Don't let Paul get arrested." Paul got arrested. Merkley, when he was a do-gooder nobody, helped me organize a coalition in Portland that took on every bank in town publicly. I told him be aware bankers could retaliate against you. And he said he didn't care. We won everything we wanted plus more. But they did do something retaliatory to him that was painful at the time. Five years later he was the leader of the Oregon House and we were allies in crime fighting Enron and getting a great progressive electricity restructuring bill passed. Wellstone had BDE. He actually did wrestle in college. Merkley does not have BDE. But I'd argue both had/have vision + optimism. It got Merkley and Wellstone US Senate seats. El-Sayed has that. They will all be among the most progressive members of the US Senate. El Sayed is not only an optimist. He is cocky. Statements about Fetterman being an ogre and and asshole were unforced errors. And they may have hurt him. It will certainly not help him build bridges with Democratic moderates. Optimism, and vision, will help him. Dont get me started on that brain challenged, Munchin-light, traitor and Dem disruptor... While Sayeds comments about The Fet may not bring about a KumBayA with the Dems, nothing he said was "wrong".... For me The Fet is an attention seeking, disrespectful outlier, and really has to place in politics.... Perhaps he should take his hoodie, shorts and flip-flops and be a contestant on Survivor ? or Naked and Afraid ? Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted 23 hours ago Author Members Posted 23 hours ago Just to reinforce my affection for long-winded White data geeks who have zero BDE, here is the right-wing equivalent of Ryan Grim: Sean Trende at RCP. This also reinforces the Big Tent Energy theme of this thread. I think Trende nailed everything he said in the first part of this video about the election yesterday, which is about the first 20 minutes. The fact that it is now almost an expectation that "DSA adjacent" candidates will pick off anyone they target is itself a reflection of a massive shift. As he says, if you compare this to the Tea Party, they didn't pick off everyone every time. He cites John McCain as an example of a guy with true independent cred who dispatched a Tea Party primary opponent in Arizona easily in 2010. But his overall conclusion is that all the signs point to this being like 2018, when the Democrats had a similar lead of about 8 % in the generic ballot. There's discussion throughout the first 20 minutes of Washington state. I took it as a good sign that moderate Marie Gluesenkamp Perez dispatched her DSA opponent easily in a jungle primary. She'd be a good comparison to McCain as a Democrat with true independent cred in a swing district. Trende talks about Virginia House 1 as an example of a pretty solid Republican House seat that he thinks is now in play. The incumbent Republican, Robert Whitman, won that seat 56/44 in 2024. If that is now a 50/50 seat where a Democrat could win, that's a huge shift. They also make an interesting "silver lining in the cloud" argument about Virginia. The Democratic Virginia gerrymander that was thrown out by Republican judges would have made Democrat House members vulnerable in a good R year, anyway, Trende says. This way, Democrats might still win two or even three House seats in Virginia. But they will be somewhat easier to hold long term when the tide turns again. Assuming that DSA-adjacent progressives and old school moderates can cohabitate a happy (enough) big tent, that is. The most important fact Trende cites earlier in the interview is that conservatives outnumber liberals two to one. What Trende said about 2 to 1 is debatable. It was more true when Clinton was POTUS, which was Trende's point. He said Clinton succeeded by building a coalition between liberals and moderates. Trende did not mention this. But it often pissed off liberals and Gays. I'd argue Clinton then Obama then Biden managed to also nudge policy a bit more to the liberal end, even though liberals are not a majority. That said, I also just explained why Democrats can't keep Senate seats in more centrist states like Iowa and Montana and North Carolina - all states that voted for Obama at least once. Unrelated, Mark Halperin has this monthly list of which Democrat is most likely to be nominee in 2028. And it is all over the map. Just weeks ago he was saying Bernie may run in 2028 and may be unstoppable. For some reason he now put Shapiro at the top of the list. The math above suggests that moderate Democrats are going to prevail nationally. Which is what happened in 2016 and 2020. Even though most Republicans would not call Clinton or Biden moderates. They were compared to Bernie or Warren. Running Joel Shapiro would be a clever thing to do, if what Democrats care most about is winning. You can argue that if Harris picked him, she would have won. You can also argue that Genocide Joel would have cost her more votes in Michigan. Either way, it looks like Shapiro is headed to a blow out win in 2026. El-Sayed won't win in a blowout. Shapiro and El-Sayed are both handsome guys. And Shapiro also has BDE. It would not be a marriage made in heaven. But stranger marriages have happened. Just ask Mike Pence. That said, if we have to have a Jew, can we please have Ossoff? 😉 Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted 23 hours ago Author Members Posted 23 hours ago 48 minutes ago, Suckrates said: Dont get me started on that brain challenged, Munchin-light, traitor and Dem disruptor... While Sayeds comments about The Fet may not bring about a KumBayA with the Dems, nothing he said was "wrong".... For me The Fet is an attention seeking, disrespectful outlier, and really has to place in politics.... Perhaps he should take his hoodie, shorts and flip-flops and be a contestant on Survivor ? or Naked and Afraid ? My heart bleeds for you, Sis. I won't argue with you about his lack of respect. But, may I suggest, as selfless a public servant as you are, and as generous as you are in altruistically meeting certain intimate needs of BDE Democrats, that this is really about The Fet's total lack of respect for even the most basic of fashion principles? And please don't be mad at me for what I said above. If we have to take a Pennsylvania moderate to win in 2028, at least Shapiro has the decency to wear a suit, and look pretty good in it. Maybe not quite BDE, like I said. But hardly a brute. Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted 21 hours ago Author Members Posted 21 hours ago Why am I not surprised? Big Tent Chuck Schumer's Senate Majority PAC apparently got the memo. They already released this. Quote
Members Suckrates Posted 9 hours ago Members Posted 9 hours ago 14 hours ago, stevenkesslar said: My heart bleeds for you, Sis. I won't argue with you about his lack of respect. But, may I suggest, as selfless a public servant as you are, and as generous as you are in altruistically meeting certain intimate needs of BDE Democrats, that this is really about The Fet's total lack of respect for even the most basic of fashion principles? And please don't be mad at me for what I said above. If we have to take a Pennsylvania moderate to win in 2028, at least Shapiro has the decency to wear a suit, and look pretty good in it. Maybe not quite BDE, like I said. But hardly a brute. I am SURE you knew when I mispoke "Munchin-light" that I really meant MANCHIN-light ? But that doesnt change the fact The Fet is a brain challenged, neanderthal who does NO have the Dems best interests at heart.... Yes, disrespectful, arrogant and extremely "out-of-place" in a Very serious role. There are people you dislike when you hear them speak, but The Fet is a person easily despisable "just by looking at him".... And the pic of him you chose to post was "perfect" illustration of the person he IS..... One that does not give a fuck about the role he serves because he feels "who he is" is a much bigger force...... Sasquatch feet is a lot to have to swallow for 2028, and I am used to "taking Big loads". (Mamdani is a huge cummer) Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted 6 hours ago Author Members Posted 6 hours ago 2 hours ago, Suckrates said: and I am used to "taking Big loads". (Mamdani is a huge cummer) I'm so proud of you, Sis. You're as courageous as Matt Damon, navigating yourself through all those deep seas of sperm. I got on a "how badly are Democrats screwing ourselves?" kick last night and watched a bunch of videos. Some of which you won't want to see. The theme of this thread is Big Tent Energy. And at the core of it is the idea that Democrats have to unite moderates and liberals to win. And moderates are going to outnumber liberals . That's not politics or ideology or my own preferences. It's arithmetic, based on the charts above. In 2024 it seemed like maybe Zoomers were taking a turn to the right by going for Trump in larger numbers than expected. Maybe. But now it seems just as likely it was a reaction to Bidenflation and Biden age. And in some cases to Biden and Harris not being liberal enough. This 2026 Gallup update of the long term ideological trends I posted above is encouraging to liberal me. So in 2026 28 % of voters say they are liberals. An all time high. 35 % of voters say they are conservative, an all time low for Gallup. The rest are moderates. On the face of it, whoever gets the moderates wins, as Sean Trende said in that video from RCP above. 59 % of Democrats say they are liberal, up from only 25 % in 1994 when Clinton ruled. I think that explains why both John Fetterman and Francesca Hong have problems. What works for a majority of Democrats simply does not work for the nation as a whole. You won't want to watch that, Sis. Swallowing those rough seas of sperm is more than enough public service for now. 😍 You don't have to swallow Fetterman, too. But Fetterman is NOT saying he does not want to be a Democrat. The opposite. He is saying he wants Democrats to win. And in 2024 we had a problem. There is no question that "defund the police" and "abolish ICE" were not good messages in 2024, if the goal was winning. He talks about how he traveled a lot stumping for Harris in 2024 and he knew there was a problem. Recall that Pennsylvania was the only swing state that lost a Democratic Senate seat in 2024. It could have been far worse. Democrats almost lost Michigan. And Nevada. And Arizona. And Wisconsin. That fact backs up what he is saying. If we can't keep Pennsylvania, we sure as shit can't elect a liberal in West Virginia. Fetterman is saying things that he knows appeals to moderates in Pennsylvania. A Pennsylvania Republican elected in 2028 may be more fashionable. But we won't like the way he votes better. I think the problem with Fetterman is he is telling liberal Democrats - the majority of the party - that we are wrong. Of course that is not a popular thing to say. No doubt people at the margin will hear it and say, "He's an asshole," like El Sayed said. Fetterman managed to win in a swing state in 2022. It's not clear El Sayed can do that yet. Stated differently, John Fetterman is no Bill Clinton. And he's no Raphael Warnock or Jon Ossoff, who actually vote more conservative but are beloved and BDE. Poor guy! El Sayed: Abolish ICE The story, or wishful thinking, going around is that El Sayed is a new Bill Clinton. Clinton was the other speaker when El Sayed gave his graduating commencement address. The story going around is that Clinton said to El Sayed, "If you speak like that, you should be in politics." We'll know soon. I was surprised. There's a YouGov poll out that say about half of America is open to abolishing ICE, and only 40 % or so oppose the idea. The pro-immigration stance El Sayed articulates in that video is wildly popular these days, after 2+ years of Trump Cruelty. And El Sayed's family embodies the idea that you come to America to work hard and make America better. My main point is that what you see with El Sayed is a liberal building a coalition with moderates on his terms in real time. What you see with Fetterman is a guy who votes liberal alienating liberals. I think El-Sayed is a better politician. Quote “You may not hate Muslims, but Muslims hate you." That little gem was actually spoken by El-Sayed in 2018, during the Guv race. He did apologize after he said it. But that GOP sound bite writes itself. It's pretty much Exhibit A in Fetterman's case that Democrats should not engage in political suicide. Who's the asshole now? The context is the statement was directed to a specific Republican, Patrick Colbeck. Colbeck is a 2020 election denier who made a right-wing election denier video with The Pillow Guy. He ran for Guv in 2018. He was baiting El-Sayed about how he's part of the Muslim Brotherhood who wants jihad in America. El Sayed took the bait, then walked it back. It's the equivalent of Bill Clinton saying, "It depends on what the meaning of "is" is." Only worse. I feel confident that El-Sayed is a pretty gifted politician. He just proved it. No other politician has survived $60 million in AIPAC and special interest money and still won. Francesca Hong seems more like the anti-Fetterman. Every video I have seen so far she mostly spouts lefty jargon when she is challenged. Which is fine with me. But there's a reason Democrats are worried that she won't be persuasive to moderates. We'll see. Polymarket gives El-Sayed a 60 % chance of winning and Hong a 60 % chance of losing. It does seem like El-Sayed and Hong will have the wind at their backs, if they don't make a lot more unforced errors like the one I quoted above. Chucky S and Abdul are now having a love fest. It warms my heart. Almost as much as your courageous public service to New York's Mayor. Quote
Members Suckrates Posted 4 hours ago Members Posted 4 hours ago 1 hour ago, stevenkesslar said: I'm so proud of you, Sis. You're as courageous as Matt Damon, navigating yourself through all those deep seas of sperm. I got on a "how badly are Democrats screwing ourselves?" kick last night and watched a bunch of videos. Some of which you won't want to see. The theme of this thread is Big Tent Energy. And at the core of it is the idea that Democrats have to unite moderates and liberals to win. And moderates are going to outnumber liberals . That's not politics or ideology or my own preferences. It's arithmetic, based on the charts above. In 2024 it seemed like maybe Zoomers were taking a turn to the right by going for Trump in larger numbers than expected. Maybe. But now it seems just as likely it was a reaction to Bidenflation and Biden age. And in some cases to Biden and Harris not being liberal enough. This 2026 Gallup update of the long term ideological trends I posted above is encouraging to liberal me. So in 2026 28 % of voters say they are liberals. An all time high. 35 % of voters say they are conservative, an all time low for Gallup. The rest are moderates. On the face of it, whoever gets the moderates wins, as Sean Trende said in that video from RCP above. 59 % of Democrats say they are liberal, up from only 25 % in 1994 when Clinton ruled. I think that explains why both John Fetterman and Francesca Hong have problems. What works for a majority of Democrats simply does not work for the nation as a whole. You won't want to watch that, Sis. Swallowing those rough seas of sperm is more than enough public service for now. 😍 You don't have to swallow Fetterman, too. But Fetterman is NOT saying he does not want to be a Democrat. The opposite. He is saying he wants Democrats to win. And in 2024 we had a problem. There is no question that "defund the police" and "abolish ICE" were not good messages in 2024, if the goal was winning. He talks about how he traveled a lot stumping for Harris in 2024 and he knew there was a problem. Recall that Pennsylvania was the only swing state that lost a Democratic Senate seat in 2024. It could have been far worse. Democrats almost lost Michigan. And Nevada. And Arizona. And Wisconsin. That fact backs up what he is saying. If we can't keep Pennsylvania, we sure as shit can't elect a liberal in West Virginia. Fetterman is saying things that he knows appeals to moderates in Pennsylvania. A Pennsylvania Republican elected in 2028 may be more fashionable. But we won't like the way he votes better. I think the problem with Fetterman is he is telling liberal Democrats - the majority of the party - that we are wrong. Of course that is not a popular thing to say. No doubt people at the margin will hear it and say, "He's an asshole," like El Sayed said. Fetterman managed to win in a swing state in 2022. It's not clear El Sayed can do that yet. Stated differently, John Fetterman is no Bill Clinton. And he's no Raphael Warnock or Jon Ossoff, who actually vote more conservative but are beloved and BDE. Poor guy! El Sayed: Abolish ICE The story, or wishful thinking, going around is that El Sayed is a new Bill Clinton. Clinton was the other speaker when El Sayed gave his graduating commencement address. The story going around is that Clinton said to El Sayed, "If you speak like that, you should be in politics." We'll know soon. I was surprised. There's a YouGov poll out that say about half of America is open to abolishing ICE, and only 40 % or so oppose the idea. The pro-immigration stance El Sayed articulates in that video is wildly popular these days, after 2+ years of Trump Cruelty. And El Sayed's family embodies the idea that you come to America to work hard and make America better. My main point is that what you see with El Sayed is a liberal building a coalition with moderates on his terms in real time. What you see with Fetterman is a guy who votes liberal alienating liberals. I think El-Sayed is a better politician. That little gem was actually spoken by El-Sayed in 2018, during the Guv race. He did apologize after he said it. But that GOP sound bite writes itself. It's pretty much Exhibit A in Fetterman's case that Democrats should not engage in political suicide. Who's the asshole now? The context is the statement was directed to a specific Republican, Patrick Colbeck. Colbeck is a 2020 election denier who made a right-wing election denier video with The Pillow Guy. He ran for Guv in 2018. He was baiting El-Sayed about how he's part of the Muslim Brotherhood who wants jihad in America. El Sayed took the bait, then walked it back. It's the equivalent of Bill Clinton saying, "It depends on what the meaning of "is" is." Only worse. I feel confident that El-Sayed is a pretty gifted politician. He just proved it. No other politician has survived $60 million in AIPAC and special interest money and still won. Francesca Hong seems more like the anti-Fetterman. Every video I have seen so far she mostly spouts lefty jargon when she is challenged. Which is fine with me. But there's a reason Democrats are worried that she won't be persuasive to moderates. We'll see. Polymarket gives El-Sayed a 60 % chance of winning and Hong a 60 % chance of losing. It does seem like El-Sayed and Hong will have the wind at their backs, if they don't make a lot more unforced errors like the one I quoted above. Chucky S and Abdul are now having a love fest. It warms my heart. Almost as much as your courageous public service to New York's Mayor. Fetterman needs to learn that POLITICS is a game, and IF you want to WIN, you need to align, and play the game..... The Fet wants Dems to WIN ? REALLY ? Well, to win, they need HIS vote, but his vote often goes to the other side, just so he can make some point..... Like before, I consider him Manchin-light, as Manchin did the exact same thing. What doesnt The Fet understand ? Sometimes being a TEAM player entails more than just thinking about your OWN constituents.... I really think Fets head is jumbled, and he better get it back in the "numbers" game. And right now, the El-Sayed train is running FULL SPEED..... I hope it doesnt run out of steam by Nov ? The American public isnt buying Trumps "commie" narrative, but people do have short attention spans, and get tired. It will be interesting to see where this goes, and how ANGRY the American people will get/be in the next 3 months ? stevenkesslar 1 Quote
RockyRoadTravel Posted 4 hours ago Posted 4 hours ago 2 hours ago, stevenkesslar said: I'm so proud of you, Sis. You're as courageous as Matt Damon, navigating yourself through all those deep seas of sperm. I got on a "how badly are Democrats screwing ourselves?" kick last night and watched a bunch of videos. Some of which you won't want to see. The theme of this thread is Big Tent Energy. And at the core of it is the idea that Democrats have to unite moderates and liberals to win. And moderates are going to outnumber liberals . That's not politics or ideology or my own preferences. It's arithmetic, based on the charts above. In 2024 it seemed like maybe Zoomers were taking a turn to the right by going for Trump in larger numbers than expected. Maybe. But now it seems just as likely it was a reaction to Bidenflation and Biden age. And in some cases to Biden and Harris not being liberal enough. This 2026 Gallup update of the long term ideological trends I posted above is encouraging to liberal me. So in 2026 28 % of voters say they are liberals. An all time high. 35 % of voters say they are conservative, an all time low for Gallup. The rest are moderates. On the face of it, whoever gets the moderates wins, as Sean Trende said in that video from RCP above. 59 % of Democrats say they are liberal, up from only 25 % in 1994 when Clinton ruled. I think that explains why both John Fetterman and Francesca Hong have problems. What works for a majority of Democrats simply does not work for the nation as a whole. Jon Stewart is very well informed and articulate in that video clip. He could run for office. He's got MDE which is big tent. MDE can appeal to BDE queens in a pinch. stevenkesslar 1 Quote
Members Suckrates Posted 3 hours ago Members Posted 3 hours ago First, we need a dictionary for all the "DE" energies........ Secondly, this BIG TENT narrative is getting boring, redundant and meaningless. When the time come, people will vote "their feelings" without being told. They will find the place thats right for them. They dont need a tent to cast a single vote.... I never was into TENTS, or camping...... my idea of group interaction is "GLAMPING" with AC and a nice COCKtail....... Tents are overrated, but I suppose every political movement needs a catchphrase ? Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted 3 hours ago Author Members Posted 3 hours ago Here's a ranking of four Senators HAE: Heritage Action Energy. 38 minutes ago, Suckrates said: I never was into TENTS Fair enough, Sis. Surely, you do make distinctions between a 6, and a 7, and a 12. Right? 😁 Gary Peters: 6 % Raphael Warnock: 6 % John Fetterman: 7 % Jon Ossoff: 12 % That GovTrack analysis I posted above clearly states that Fetterman is more liberal than Warnock, Peters, or Ossoff - who are among the three three most conservative, or centrist, Democrats. But it doesn't tell you how it got to those scores, Heritage Action spells out specific votes. Since they are measuring the last Congress, one way to think about it is that all four of these extremists supported disastrous Biden policies and pro-choice murder and bad stuff like that 9 times out of 10. The average Senate Democrat score is 11 %. So Ossoff is the only one who has slightly more HAE than the other three. Maybe it's excess BDE spilling over? When they cum a lot, as you well know Sis, it gets everywhere. Joe Manchin: 21 % No surprise there. I would have guessed that Manchin is the kind of Democrat who would be more in tune with Heritage Foundation priorities. Although, on the face of it, he was with the Biden cabal four times out of five. Bernie Sanders: 45 % That's the real shocker. Bernie's lifetime Heritage score is 11. So for some reason they liked Bernie better in the last Congress, where he got a 45 % score. Since Bernie agreed with Heritage on a number of defense bills, I'm gonna guess Bernie opposed Biden-era defense bills that he saw as warmonger bills, Heritage saw as wastes of money, and most Democrats voted for party line. But that's just a guess. 38 minutes ago, Suckrates said: Fetterman needs to learn that POLITICS is a game It's also been called a blood sport. And it seems likely that it is a game Fetterman does not particularly like. Who knows. If I had to bet, he'll just decline to run again. But some of that will depend on what happens in 2026. If El-Sayed loses, Fetterman will look like he was right. If El-Sayed wins, hopefully they will kiss and make up. (Sorry. You won't be able to get that image out of your mind, either.) Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted 2 hours ago Author Members Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, RockyRoadTravel said: Jon Stewart is very well informed and articulate in that video clip. He could run for office. He's got MDE which is big tent. MDE can appeal to BDE queens in a pinch. And that is the question for 2028! Hmmm. Pining for Daddy! 🫢 So I could make a good case for Daddy Dem. Gavin Newsom is no Matt Damon. But he probably comes closest to the Daddy look. (Carney is straight out of central casting, if we want to locate Ithaca somewhere in Canada.) Kamala Harris is no Anne Hathaway. But we can take more liberties with the epic and say maybe it is time for Mommy Dem. All those conservatives were right. A Black Athena was only the start of it! Which leads to the question. Who are these young people? And do they know what the fuck they are doing? Are they ready to fight, and lead? Don't wanna spoil the ending that is 3000 years old, which as Well Rounded Adults we all should supposedly know. Holland himself says he never read The Odyssey. Love ya, Tom. But maybe we don't need Daddy, or MDE. Or Mommy, or AHE. Maybe we need somebody young. THY. He's got that Tom Holland Youth thing. With a touch of Clark Kent. If we're gonna do Daddy, can we at least do young Daddy? Chasten adds a touch of AHE, too! So many choices. I'll consult with Tom Holland and see what he thinks. Quote
RockyRoadTravel Posted 2 hours ago Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said: So many choices. I'll consult with Tom Holland and see what he thinks. Remember, it's best to think with your mouth full. Quote
RockyRoadTravel Posted 2 hours ago Posted 2 hours ago I don't believe that all is sweetness and light in Michigan, and this is a relief to see jus the same. stevenkesslar 1 Quote
Members Suckrates Posted 1 hour ago Members Posted 1 hour ago 46 minutes ago, RockyRoadTravel said: I don't believe that all is sweetness and light in Michigan, and this is a relief to see jus the same. Inauthentic KUMBAYA wears thin VERY quickly...... Quote
Members stevenkesslar Posted 5 minutes ago Author Members Posted 5 minutes ago 2 hours ago, stevenkesslar said: I'll consult with Tom Holland and see what he thinks. 1 hour ago, Suckrates said: Inauthentic KUMBAYA wears thin VERY quickly...... I did check with Tom. He said be patient, have rizz, and keep your mouth full. 🤔 Sometimes it just happens naturally. No. I didn't provide public service, Sis. I could never do that to Zendaya. Quote
