Is 2024 "Dewey beats Biden"?

[stevenkesslar]

 

Biden Can Still Win — If He Runs Like Harry Truman

Great article.

I'm surprised there haven't been more stories like this.  Although one thing that is true about most media talking heads, left of right, is they usually go for the lazy and obvious analysis.  Trump leads!  Biden should quit!  So thinking about Harry Truman may be above their pay grade.

There have been endless variations of "2024 is 1980, and Joe Biden is Jimmy Carter" in right wing media.  God bless them and their denial of facts.

Here's the most important fact about why Biden is more like Truman than Carter.  In 1976, Carter beat Ford in part by saying the misery index was way too high.  In 1980, Reagan slaughtered Carter by saying it was now even higher.  Over 20 percent!  Right now the misery index is 6.8 percent, which is one point LOWER than the last day Trump was POTUS. 

Trump may have a hard time explaining why the economy was great under him, after all.  Repeal Obamacare, anyone?  Cut taxes for billionaires, anyone?  Wouldn't it be way more swell if our homes and stocks were worth less?  That argument just won't hold up.  Of course, Trump doesn't understand RISING net worth.  His is phony.  And about to go way down!

The "economy sucks" argument probably holds up best for Gen Z and some Millennials.  Who don't own homes or stocks, and are perhaps suffering relatively more from higher prices and interest rates.  And they mostly hate Trump.  They'll vote for Trump so that he can make abortion illegal everywhere, and make sure there can never ever be student debt relief?  Give me a break!  

Biden does need to Give Em Hell.  It turns out that when you are Giving People Hell, you do not look old and senile and feeble.  So one good reason for Biden to model himself on a populist like Truman is he won't look so God damn old.

Biden is in better shape than Truman, if we go by objective facts.  In both 2024 and 1948, most people said they did not like the incumbent President.  And Reason # 1 was higher prices.  In 1946, inflation peaked at 20 % just as people were voting.  The midterms were a wipeout for Democrats.  Which fed the idea that Democrats will have their heads chopped off in 1948.   In 2022 inflation peaked under 10 %, and was on the way down by November.  Which may be why Democrats did better than expected.  People of course don't like higher prices.  It's not clear that will stick on election day, though.   Just ask Harry Truman.

That's especially true if Biden runs a campaign based on economic populism, like Truman did.  Trump actually did cut taxes for billionaires like himself.  Biden actually did say working class women with kids should get tax credits so their kids can afford to play team sports.  It lifted half of the children in the US out of poverty for one year.  People can understand the differences.

In 1948 it was early days of The Cold War.  And no one could predict who would win.  In 2024 we have won the Cold War.  And Biden wants to keep Russia contained and help Ukraine.  Ronald Reagan would agree with Joe Biden, not Donald Trump.  The majority of people agree we should help Ukraine and not be weak and feeble with Putin. 

I'll keep repeating that Biden has a "Genocide Joe" problem with his base.  But as this article suggests, if and when Biden demands a ceasefire (Kamala Harris just did) that will help.  Biden needs to start giving Bibi hell, too.  If he wants to be POTUS in 2025.  As a lifetime Israel supporter, I strongly believe it is better for Israel.  Bibi is turning Israel into Apartheid Land, at best, and Genocide World, at worst.  It is not in the interest of Israel or the US to keep sliding into that abyss.  More dead Jews, anyone?

The one thing that was a little bit of a revelation to me in that article above is that as much as Stein and West are a curse, they are also kind of a blessing.  And Biden knows this, if anyone does.  In 2020 he won mostly because he religiously clung to the middle of the road, as best he could.  Yeah, 2020 was the most liberal Democratic primary ever.  But Biden always wanted to be the guy closer to the center.  He will do the same thing in Fall 2024.  And it will probably work, too.  He will attack his "dangerous" opponent on the right, Trump, and also his dangerous opponents on The Left.

Election Polls; 1948 and Today

That's a boring and long-winded look at 1948.  But, hey.  What am I if not boring and long-winded.  And, often, correct.  I do like facts.  Lots of them.

Truman's approval was 38 % around now in 1948.  All year long Dewey was beating him in the polls.  It's risky to compare 1948 polls to today.  But at the time Gallup and Roper and a few others were viewed as very credible pollsters.  To the point that the media at the time was saying we don't even need to hold an election.  Dewey won.  Kind of like @EmmetK insists Trump won already.  Poor thing!

There is one big difference between Trump and Dewey.  Trump is seen as far more dangerous.  I don't think @EmmetK and The Cult get that.  Democrats like me are partisan.  Duh!  But we can see facts.  The polls are telling us right now that most Democrats and Independents agree that both Biden and Trump are too old.  independents and Democrats also agree that Trump is too dangerous.  The Cult can't see that.  That is, of course, because they are in The Cult.

There is one fact in that 1948 poll that I think does suggest why Biden could lose.  And why he needs to run a Harry Truman campaign.

In 1948, by a 2 to 1 margin, people said the New Deal policies had done more good than harm.  People may have voted less for Truman, and more for FDR.  In 2024, as @EmmetK has correctly pointed out, Trump is winning the issues.  So far.  On the economy, people say (today) that Trump's policies did more good than harm.  And Biden's policies have done more harm than good.  And they don't mean lower prescription drug costs, or child tax credits.  They mean higher prices.

Biden needs to Give Trump Hell. 

Do we really want more tax cuts for the rich?  Do we really want to try to repeal Obamacare, again?  Do we really want more trade wars that will - what do tariffs do? - RAISE PRICES ON THE WORKING CLASS.  Is it better to have more billionaires with lower tax bills and twice as many poor Hispanic children?  Do we really want abortion illegal everywhere?  Do we really want a government policy of climate change denial?  Do we really want to let Bibi pave Gaza over with the blood of Palestinian women and children?  Do we really want Murderous Vlad to win in Ukraine?  Do we really want Trump governing from a prison cell, not the Oval Office?  Or, when Congress does something Trump doesn't like, should he just send his thugs over to break some more cops' bones?

That debate has not even begun.  I won't be surprised if Biden and Democrats win it.  Again.  Like in 2018.  And 2020.  And 2022.  And 2023.  And so far in 2024.