May 17, 201511 yr The GOP Is Dying Off. Literally. http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/05/the-gop-is-dying-off-literally-118035.html?hp=t3_r#.VVkkqz29LCQ
May 18, 201511 yr Active Members This is why I tell my republican associates that it's unlikely that there will be a Republican president again, certainly not a white, straight male one.
May 18, 201511 yr Active Members If even one or two big blue states controlled by the GOP like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Illinois, etc shift to electoral voting by Congressional district, there may not be another Democratic president for a long time. The popular vote may become much more Democratic but it won't matter, only the electoral vote matters. So far the GOP hasn't pulled this trick because those states like the attention from being close. Also, even without gerrymandering, the House will always be very Republican because of Democratic concentration in dense cities.
May 18, 201511 yr Author Agree -- the article does echo those points about electoral-college math blunting the negative effects for Republicans of this generational shift. Still, speaking as a Democrat -- huzzah!
May 18, 201511 yr Active Members The article is very narrow in what it is considering. I don't think it is wrong, as presented, and makes sense that an older average aged group will establish a higher hurdle to overcome to replenish its ranks. If one steps back a bit, there may be some broader considerations to think about that certainly can change the picture and influence future elections. First, what are the numbers related to shifting from one party to another over time and as one ages. It would be interesting to see what that happens to the math when one considers that aspect. The second is cyclical nature of politics with favorite parties in and out of power, and identification with that group. The third is the rise of the independents and relative leanings toward one party or another, which also seems to be cyclical and makes one consider some other underlying driver not identified that perhaps makes the age "problem" less significant compared to that shift....that more people are identifying as independent. However it certainly seems that this specific problem is much more significant at this point in time for the Republicans. Beyond that, what is important to consider is the age distribution of the independents and their leanings which will certainly make the difference for future elections . From the graphs below there are some interesting things to be gleemed from some historical polling.....
May 23, 201511 yr Active Members Agree -- the article does echo those points about electoral-college math blunting the negative effects for Republicans of this generational shift. Still, speaking as a Democrat -- huzzah! Electoral College electing "blunts" the effect now, but if even one or two blue big states go to electoral votes by Congressional district there may never be another Democratic president. We're talking Pennsylvania or New Jersey or Wisconsin or Illinois where Dems would lose dozens of electoral votes. I don't understand why the GOP hasn't already done this unless swing states just like the attention but eventually I'm sure even Repugs aren't stupid enough to let this slip.
May 23, 201511 yr Active Members And if Texas or Florida were to go to a congressional district electoral system, the Republican party would be unlikely to elect another president for quite some time either. A more transparent solution for the Republicans would be to repeal the 14th and 15th Amendments. And in all probability a stiff poll tax alone would do the trick and have the additional advantage of pleasing the flat tax crowd.
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