NOTE -- PM Srettha Thavisin announced that he's skipping the ASEAN meeting and will send a designee in his place. Certainly avoids antagonizing Myanmar junta.

From CNBC

Southeast Asian nations must adopt a cohesive position on Myanmar’s civil conflict and the ASEAN summit is a chance for leaders to “recalibrate,” Marty Natalegawa, Indonesia’s former foreign minister told CNBC. 

“I get the sense that ASEAN is at a loss for ideas … one can speak with eloquence about one individual member state’s wish to happen in Myanmar. But first and foremost, we need to have a common ASEAN position,” he told CNBC’s JP Ong on “Street Signs Asia.”

The 43rd Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit kicked off in the Indonesian capital of Jakarta on Tuesday, with Myanmar’s political crisis and the South China Sea disputes set to dominate discussions.

The 10-nation bloc is made up of Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.

This is the second year in a row that Myanmar was not invited to the regional meeting, following the military coup in February 2021 which saw its elected leader Nobel peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi ousted from power. 

Natalegawa said that while it is commendable the junta is excluded from the meetings, ASEAN member states have become “a little bit divided” over the past year in addressing Myanmar’s prolonged civil strife. 

The bloc has long operated on the principle of non-interference to ensure sovereignty of member states, but some countries urged the bloc to take bolder action.

Malaysia, for example, called for the imposition of “strong” measures against Myanmar’s ruling generals, according to a Reuters report last month.  

“At the moment, I’m reminded more about the divisions rather than the unity … this is not only a litmus test for ASEAN, but in my view is an existential threat to ASEAN,” Natalegawa added. 

Another issue that could test the ability of ASEAN to act as a cohesive bloc is the dispute in the South China Sea. 

“Some ASEAN member states in dispute feel that they are not being provided a common ASEAN home, so as if they are left on their own devices to deal with this issue,” said Natalegawa.

Just last week, the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam rejected China’s latest South China Sea map, which denoted its claims to sovereignty.

The new map of its heavily contested U-shaped line cuts into the exclusive economic zones of Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia.

ASEAN will do nothing re Mayanmar without China's nod. And China will continue to do everything to avaoid problems on its borders. Nothing has changed!