tassojunior

No idea and I dont ask. He's been there a while and is usually around a hotel. On another note Czeching Hunqz today I notice this newbie. May be a 2nd SexyPhil ad? If not worth a shot:

Addendum to above: Florida would be the win for Biden and I've been saying I hear the reason he's been ahead there is Trump's loss of seniors over 65. Biden needs to drive home policy on SS and Medicare. Trump cant lose seniors or Florida. Trump has pulled into a tie now with big Florida Latino support as opposed to 2016.

@stevenkesslar 1. The military poll is a little surpring but remember the service, even though its less black, is hard to get in now. HS degree, no record, tests, etc. Many go to get college. Otherwise, its a smaller poll. But military, Ive heard, is much less right wing than police. Cops are far far right. 2. I still say the cemetary narrative is obviously manufactured news and has no legs. To take it far requires going with the bone spurs thing and Biden did the same thing. 3. I dont know MN and WS and am surprised Biden is doing well there.I do remember that in 68 most riots were in Detroit and it was almost burned out of existence but in November voted Dem by over 6%. So riots may hurt more in other states. Nixon certainly won on law and order and disgust with the race riots. 4. Im surprised Biden is sinking in his "home" of PA and in MH. Both may be turning red. If Biden loses he'll regret not picking Whitmer. 5. If it stays close Trumps best shot is the 3 debates. Biden depends on a teleprompter and with one is trained to speak well. Primary debates also are more subdued with plenty of rehersed lines and platitudes. Biden stumbles on reading lines though and under heat lashes out crazily. One of the few people who may end up making Trump look presidential if he starts one of his Horse faced lesbian/Pony faced liar tirades. Why Pelosi says "no debates". 6. If I were advising Trump (I would not) Id suggest 2 biggies....first .....all China Joe, China Joe. Biden, and many Dems are extremely susceptible on that and China is the major enemy of the US and now the world's #1 country. Second, do a 180 on war and healthcare. Trump used to be a liberal Democrat and Biden was a main supporter of the Iraq War. Pull troops out of Afghanistan and Syria and condemn endless Democratic wars. Stop the drone attacks in Yemen and Somalia. Use executive orders to force low prescription prices and maybe even set up M4All. Trump once asked why not just M4All. Pardon Snowden, Assange and Manning. Pull the liberal rug out from under the Dems. People elected Trump because he was a rebel, not a Republican, and running the same old socialism, socialism GOP campaign is worn out. He needs independents. Anyway I doubt he's any smarter than the Dems. My 2 cents on the election.

Watergate was a specific incident, a break-in, a major crime disclosed by 1 "Deepthroat" at the top of the crime fairly soon after. This is a sudden remembrance of a remark to someone else from well over a year ago of it being a generality statement and not a statement just about McCain, (which statement is well-known) and therefore "Major News" !. Same media people caught Bernie in a "Major News" sudden-remembrance-at-opportune-time allegedly saying a woman couldn't beat Trump in the popular vote (after one had). Neither makes any sense upon much thought and doesn't really matter much except it's what we're supposed to be interested in if we're "on the right side". To be honest there are a thousand other, worse, things and policy stands, I care about besides this teeny-bopper he-said, she-said some Mean-Girl media wants us to think is the major news. People having bullets put in their heads is major news. Whether a mean statement over a year ago was a generality instead of just specific to McCain is not on a normal person's top-ten worry list right now. The obviousness of the co-ordinated timing between the party and the "independent" press to portray this as a sudden news event is just going to cause blowback against the ticket and sympathy for Trump. It's a stupid strategy but typical of the arrogance of these neanderthal Neo Libs. What happened to the "anonymous sources" who were going to come out on the Russia/Taliban collusion that was the media narrative a few weeks ago........crickets. But we had proof on the Assad gassing his own people narrative...until...it didn't matter anymore and the UN said it was all a lie and.....nevermind. The arrogance of the new wave of media is that they believe they can fucking make you believe anything they want you to. Truth is easy, any wimp can do that. But these folks think they can convince one the sky is green. That's an aspiration to show power and influence. We're not 100% totalitarian. We have 90% of our media owned by the same 6 corporations who promote and censor on behalf of the corporate party they are financially invested in. They decide what the narrative is they promote and everything has to bend to support that narrative or be censored. If you choose to participate in this mind-numbing experience you can. Few people I know do anymore. It's a habit once-broken loses any appeal. Unfortunately American media is hopeless noise and it's better to turn it off. You feel (and think) much better.

You may have to click on the TikTok user name to get full length screen----it's worth it ! Thanks if anyone can post full-screen version.

Manufactured news is even worse than fake news because it's an intentional setting of the narrative acceptable to be discussed in the media. It's sometimes a "look over there" topic to hold the public's interest away from other issues. Sometimes it's more sinister as in warmongering (like the Russia/Taliban garbage or the weapons of mass destruction. In a way it's a form of media censorship since it replaces important issues with National Enquirer-type fluff convincing people these are the critical issues of the day. It worked well in totalitarian countries and is all there is in China since the internet is usually filtered. Since most people just want affirmation of their existing beliefs manufactured news and narratives are very popular. We went through this in the Bernie, Tulsi, Yang campaigns with these exact same people "breaking" these exact same phoney "news" stories in unison. Reporting each others reporting immediately as in "like everybody says it! " to make it true and a new story. This problem with manipulated news has been happening across the political spectrum for three years now. https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/feb/06/liberal-fake-news-shift-trump-standing-rock I can't stand Trump and hope he's gone. But am I to believe the most critical story (narrative) this week was Newflash ! , a reporter just remembered that over a year ago an anonymous somebody told the reporter (and 3 friends) that Trump said the same thing about soldiers generally he had said about McCain (who was objectively a pig, btw) . And then bingo, another reporter in the clique publishes they also now remember "someone" told them back then he had said it generally and not just specifically about McCain? And then 2 more! And in the intervening 15 minutes the Biden tv ad magically also appears with the same far-back remembrances complete with scrolling "quotes" with zero cites. As Gomer Pyle would say Shazam what a coincidence ! So this sudden anonymous remembrance of the generality vs. a special reference becomes the only thing worth talking about in the news cycle. And it fills every available crevice of attention. Same day a young Black guy is shot in the chest by DC police and killed in high definition on his 18th birthday, after he threw a handgun away, and our national 6-corporation-owned media is all "nothing to see here" and censures the story from national news because it neither fits the ongoing narrative or the "sudden anonymous remembrance of generality" they scheduled for the day's big story. https://youtu.be/E2P7Fu2w0ts Nothing is to be discussed that does not reinforce the current narrative or distracts from the day's "Big" story. The truth is the ruling class, the Trumps and the Bidens, the Clintons, and Bloombergs, consider dying in a war something for others to risk, ie: America's unlimited supply of peasant cannon fodder. (and I'm not talking about Beau or Hunter's service in the JAG corps as lawyers lol). We have so many of those expendable poor types we even send them to die as a favor to Saudis, Israelis, UAE and Kuwaiti Emirs so their , so much more valuable kids don't have to risk their lives. Their kids' lives are so much more cherished than our poor peasants'. But Mom will get a free flag from the prez and we'll honor their giving their lives for (some) country. And the ones who survive get wonderful experience killing Blacks for their most-likely next job as police. BTW- For those who think we don't live in a censored, manipulated media: How much mention is there on Joe Biden's Vietnam service vs. Bone -Spur Donnie's? Surprise; In the exact-same year, 1968, when Americans were getting killed more than ever, the Bidens got a doc to get little football-star Joe out of the draft for having once had asthma. 5 deferments just like his pal Donnie. So strange that's never been mentioned lol. https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/feb/06/liberal-fake-news-shift-trump-standing-rock

Face from the past. "VELVETY" who now lives in Vietnam.

All us Bernie/Tulsi/Yang voters remember this garbage from this same vicious crowd in the primaries and it will just assure 2016 gets repeated. People with consciences and brains don't support McCarthyism no matter who uses it. Claiming you said something and making you prove you did not say it (a la Snake Lady) is an arrogant tactic that just shows the user is assuming the intended audience is low-IQ enough or mostly just doesn't care what the truth is. WTF happened to the adage "when they go low, we go high" With this crowd it's "how low can we go?". What happened to the warmonger narrative a couple weeks ago, (that only the lowest of morons would believe), that Russia was now allied with the Taliban against American troops? Anyone who thinks Russia wants to have to deal with the Taliban on their border doesn't know any of the history of the Taliban/Mujahideen and their skinning Russian soldiers alive with CIA help. Where are all those "anonymous sources" that the corporate media promised to bring forward? At least because of the McCain comments this new narrative would be a little believable. That one was pure horsehit. Yellow warmonger journalism for the braindead. And just like with Bernie, Tulsi, and Yang the exact same media outlets here had the campaign ads already produced and rolling before the story even came out complete with quotes. And of course the accompanying re-reporting of the story of a dozen clones is immediate, each citing each other. BTW-- when you put quotes attributable to someone, as in the ads, aren't you supposed to have a cite for the "quote"? Have we changed that rule to help get the hip warmonger crowd into power? " I think all Mexican immigrants should be killed"...Buddy2. Can you prove you never said that? How disgusting of you. Do people realize 90% of media is owned by 6 mega-corporations and that 3 of the richest families in the US are media families? Thanks goodness the internet came along as cable/print media consolidated. We got the word at the DNC convention that Bernie, Tulsi, Yang voters weren't welcome in the party and this slimey Republican-type campaign just reinforces that people with morals and brains have no place in either of the two Republican parties. Trump's approvals are low and imitating exactly his type of dishonest campaign style is stupid. The "skeptical" half of the Democratic voters want policy positions on issues , not totally avoiding them with this National Enquirer stuff. There are 1000 reasons not to be for Trump, why make up lies and go with this as the narrative? Both parties are now molded and playing by Trump tactics and games instead of one being honest and reformer. We've got 2 more months of this poison and I fully expect it to spiral into a snakepit really fast. The DNC got $350 million from Wall Street and military contractors last month-thanks to Kamala and Buttigieg mostly, and have $ to buy all airwaves 24/7. And the consensus of young independents I deal with everyday is that the "Democrats" are becoming just as despicable as Trump and the GOP. It should be an almost-impossible task but this warmonger crowd running the DNC might pull off making Trump look dignified. That should have been an impossibility. Never underestimate the ability of the DNC elite to pull defeat out of certain victory. Here's part of the blowback from honest sympathetic intelligent people that this McCarthyite tactic invites: https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/trump-came-dover-after-my-wife-was-killed-fighting-isis-ncna1239425 The days after my wife, Shannon Kent, was killed by a suicide bomber during a mission to fight ISIS in Syria in January 2019 had been such a blur and, anyway, I’d never met a president before... I find that platitudes about respect for our nation’s troops from leaders without a strategy to keep us from getting into pointless or unwinnable wars are the highest form of disrespect. Our troops and our nation deserve a president who has our best interests in mind, not just meaningless platitudes about our service meant to paint a rosy picture of war and destruction. And a photo you can print to enjoy of some of the tens of thousands of dark-skinned people we're constantly committing genocide on every day since the Bush/Biden genocide in Iraq of 1 million. The warmongers want more of this. A LOT more.

Professional bodybuilders are usually 24/7 looking for sponsors. It's a very expensive hobby with the proteins and special meals and a serious bodybuilder cannot usually work a job unless it's something like a fireman or a personal trainer. I'm not sure many really contemplate intimate encounters when always looking for sponsors and I'm not sure much past muscle worship would be available. Their dicks are usually small from drugs and their enormous diet means they are rarely "clean" everywhere. Also their bodies change enormously from when they are "bulking" to the few times they "shred" just before a competition. There are a couple I know well in Prague, both of whom are super nice guys and versatile and well-liked by guys here. When you "friend" one on Facebook or "follow" one on IG, you link through their friends to many more very easily. Two available Czech bodybuilder champions:

All spring and summer Trumpsters have had 1000+ boat flotilla parades off Florida, New Jersey, and other states. Today they tried it on a lake outside Austin and many ran into each other or got swamped and sank. (The police said it was too much alcohol). Dumbkirk

@Riobard My main reason for crossing Rio off my to-do list for the fall is the hospitals there if I got covid. I saw a listing of the best hospitals in Brazil and they were mostly in Sao Paulo with only, I think, one in Rio. And I suspect many Brazilian hospitals are nothing to write home about under the best of circumstances.

Im not impressed with the humanity of many politicians especially, but for two more months these type of "someone anonymous thinks they heard" are going to flow like a damn bursting.

As for Asians, at least Joe has Kamala to translate for him if he has to hop into a 7-11. Hispanics and Latinx are all over the board in Florida. There are 1 million new Puerto Rican Florida voters, many of whom are Black and some of those are Trump supporters. Ditto Black Cubans. Most Haitians aren't citizens but those who are vote Democratic. But the Central American Latinx who vote in Florida are somewhat divided. The South American and Central American wealthy enclaves around Miami are all GOP. I've seen estimates of Trump with 40% Latinx vote in Florida.

"Trumpism" is not just an American thing. Why do we always want to reinvent the wheel? World-wide it's the age of the nationalist/populists overthrowing the entrenched liberal corporate elite. They sing their own corny national anthems instead of the Marseillaise and there's no sound of guillotines going chop, chop but it's a radical transformation from the days when people trusted the educated elite corporate world to have their best interests at heart, not just their bank accounts. But crude as it is, it's populism, not authoritarianism. Playboy Donnie Trump is a weird figure to be out front as leader of this in the US for sure. The populist left reformers sometimes defeat the populist right and sometimes they ally with the liberal elite. But the liberal elite never returns to full power again. In the US the liberal elite is the 1% with incomes over $450,000/yr, the 90% of news outlets owned by 6 corporations, and other assorted interests serving the billionaire class. All those deplorable peasants in all those Obama-Obama-Trump districts keep trying to find a leader. If re-elected Trump will dump on them just like Obama did.

If there's much doubt we're pretty much where we were on this date in 2016:

@stevenkesslar You're old enough (like me) to remember when 1 state- Ohio- always chose the president. Be happy 3 states matter now.

It passed Democratic states very fast for sure but the polls show in deeply Republican states it is in fact very popular with the people, even Republicans. Just as marijuana legalization has passed lately in very Republican states, it's just a matter of forcing it to referendums in a couple Republican states or having an on-record vote in legislatures. Example: passage by Florida in a referendum would probably put it over the 270 needed with a couple small states. Passage by referendum by almost any 2 decent-sized states will put it over the top. Like marijuana legalization, it's just a matter of common sense and fairness to most ordinary people. We need more referendums. https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/state-status ""The bill will take effect when enacted by states possessing an additional 74 electoral votes. The National Popular Vote bill has now passed a total of 41 state legislative chambers in 24 states. It has also passed at least one legislative chamber in 9 states possessing 88 electoral votes (AR, AZ, ME, MI, MN, NC, NV, OK, VA). It has been unanimously approved at the committee level in 2 states possessing 27 more electoral votes (GA, MO). The National Popular Vote bill has been introduced in various years in all 50 states."" ""nearly 75 percent of all Pennsylvanians support the idea of a national popular vote to elect the president"". ""A survey of 800 South Carolina voters conducted on January 17–19, 2011 showed 72% overall support for the idea that the President of the United States should be the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states."" ""A survey of 800 Florida voters conducted on January 9-10, 2009 showed 78% overall support for a national popular vote for President. ""

I'm not getting into pollyannaish mode about Georgia or South Carolina lol. (I'll save that mode for the Popular Vote Compact). If they go blue it'll be because of a national landslide not because they swung the vote. I know Georgia and Florida very well and both states are very divided and it's set in stone. A 1% shift now is huge. Trump won FL by 1%. Obama won by 2% (a 2008 national landslide) and .%8 in 2012. And we remember Bush v. Gore. That's why something is wrong in the polls there. Georgia doesn't budge either because of race mostly. I don't trust Trafalgar because they're too R but Minnesota makes little sense not to be a swing state after the riots there. I don't know MN much and have been told it's odd because it's a huge city with nothing else there while Wisconsin is exurb after exurb. IDK. Anyway, if the margin is within 5% , I'm pretty sure only Pennsylvania, Florida, and Michigan will matter much and anyone who wins all three wins, and 95% certain anyone who wins 2 of 3 wins.

The Hill/CNBC has narrowed the swing states that will decide the election down to 6: Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and North Carolina. I disagree about AZ and NC being swing states since they only poll even with a national 6% +D margin. That's not swing. So it's just the 4. I'd hate to see the advertising deluge in those 4 states the next two months. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/511656-biden-leads-trump-in-5-of-6-battlegrounds-poll

""33 COVID-19 patients aged 22 or younger"" hmmm. that's children and adults. Very young children are usually very different from adults virus-wise and with Covid seem pretty immune. I never thought of them as little spreaders.

@stevenkesslar The National Popular Vote Compact goes into immediate effect with passage by states having 270 electoral votes. In just over a year it has been passed by states with almost 200 electoral votes. Anther state passes it almost monthly. 270 minus 200 = it will become effective with passage by states having 70 electoral votes. There are states with that many votes considering it right now. Yes, Republicans in South Carolina don't want it voted on and that's the tactic in every state. Not to vote against it but to deny it a vote. There are referendums (like Colorado) where it has been passed and in Ohio and Pennsylvania it could pass by referendum without the legislatures. The stage is actually coming where referendums may be used to get the final states if needed. But it is amazingly close to passage. (as opposed to an amendment which would require 2/3 of each house and 2/3's of state legislatures; a virtual impossibility). And why are 3rd parties always stuck in people's minds? Are we that conditioned to believe everything has to be in parties? Which party did Caesar or Aristotle belong to? People really are sick of political parties (check their unfavorables) and want independents to have a chance and for us to get away from political parties. Does it elect Republicans in California as feared? They don't even make the runoffs. Non-partisan elections are the trend now for good reason. And a government with two parties running it is a duopoly, not remotely a democracy. When people are asked if the popular vote winner should win they say yes by large margins. It's just a matter of getting a vote in a few more states.

The National Popular Vote Compact (to elect the popular vote winner), which I lobby for a lot, is close to going into effect (with the Supreme Court's recent blessing in the faithless elector case). It's all been done grassroots by the people against the party interests in various states. Ordinary people approve of it overwhelmingly while both parties would rather people not hear about it because it's so popular. And this is where the political bullshit of political parties hits the fan. Both parties depend on the Electoral College to stay relevant. Most people can't stand Republicans or Democrats but that's the only real choice in November, largely because of the Electoral College. Most Republicans will make lame excuses for the EC when, in fact, states can choose their presidential electors any way they want ("Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct") they don't even have to be elected.. While Democratic party hacks will say "abolish the electoral college through Constitutional amendment," knowing that is near impossible. Political bullshit of the first order. You can't depend on political parties to reform the duopoly they are co-owners of.

And that's why I'm more interested in longer-term trends than the daily headline (which is usually just today's reaffirmation of the narrative). And optics and fluff seem to be all-important while substance on issues is almost meaningless. It leads to getting the best bullshitter but changes nothing (or even makes it worse.... Remember, Vote Johnson, Goldwater will take us into a full war in Vietnam!) With Trump's fall will come Nikki Haley, much further to the right than Trump but attractive and oozing personality. We better get national consensus on issues (or at least more democracy). The trend of Biden dropping nationally seems to have stopped with today's (9/3) RCP polls. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/ . He had to get out to stop the rapid decline. Unfortunately, he seems to still be sliding down in his "home" of PA. Biden almost has to win PA. Personally I think he's closer to the 8% lead there one poll has him at, not the tie or 3% others do. But I also don't think Biden is out in front in Wisconsin and Minnesota (as much as polls say at least). And NC is looking worse for Dems, including the Senate seat. Labor Day, this monday, is the traditional start of the election campaign. Odd since with polarization, early voting, and mail ballots, most votes will be decided soon after that day. But we'll have 2 more months of this vitriol to endure from the two sides of the government. Other countries limit campaigns to 2 weeks (and their's usually mean more than ours do).

@stevenkesslar The way I always put that axiom is " When you have to choose one of two evils, choose the one you haven't tried before". There's a lot of good old American pragmatism in that even if it's not very hopeful. I think a lot of people were hopeful for a life-long liberal Democrat who had opposed the genocidal war in Iraq, was gay-friendly, and promised universal healthcare being a better risk than Hillary. I doubt if many will still give Trump the benefit of the doubt for changing in a 2nd term. (But then you have to ask whether the Dems haven't been tried before either). To me it was pretty clear (and I've seen a few polls) that the reason Biden got a personal bump after this DNC speech but no increase in poll numbers was that his choice of Kamala had increased their % in California, etc. but had equally decreased their % in the swing states, especially the midwest. Even before the final speech, the poll numbers in the midwest had fallen 2% and after Kenosha (not the RNC), midwest poll numbers plunged another 2%. Biden's average lead in his home of Pennsylvania is down to 4% from 8% before Kamala and Kenosha. The other midwest states may be worse. According to RCP, we're exactly where we were at this point in 2016, with the Democratic ticket having a lead of 3.3% in the battleground states on Sept. 2. And the betting markets have the race at even money for the first time. Doesn't get much more deja vuey than that.