tassojunior

and speaking of independents...NYT today: ""That is largely because of his difficulties among independents. Although his favorability among Democrats appears to have climbed in the wake of the conventions — now roughly matching Mr. Trump’s overwhelmingly positive ratings among Republican voters — 53 percent of likely independent voters expressed a negative view of Mr. Biden, according to the Quinnipiac survey. Just 39 percent saw him positively."" Election Updates: Biden Still Leads in Post-Convention Polls https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/09/02/us/trump-vs-biden

Advice from the frigid North: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-canada-sex/wear-a-mask-while-having-sex-canadas-top-doctor-suggests-idUSKBN25T2Y9

2 neutral polls in a week now show Biden's margin in his home state of PA has sunk from 12% to 3%. Biden doesn't win without PA, IMO. And yet his national margin stays high leading me to think the Dems % in California, NY, MA, etc has shot up skewing the Electoral College odds. Hillary ended up with a 2% "win". And yet Silver is out today with what may be generous odds: and here's the average of polls today and then Silver's analysis of them today: and a lot of this is based on Florida polls I am very doubtful about:

Going back to Clinton is really going back to old "independents". Yes, back then, and yes now with very old Republicans (like the Lincoln Project NeoCons), independents were often wavering Republicans.That is simply not true with millennial independents. As obnoxious as Trump is they won't jump on a bandwagon for a ticket that includes Biden who was the biggest cheerleader for the genocide, horrible sadistic genocide of a million innocent people in Iraq, who was on the team that is responsible for 100,000 dead by drones in Yemen and Somalia (ie: war criminals), who assassinated a 16-yr old American American citizen, who has made a career of grafting public office into family wealth, Harris who is the most AIPAC-controlled candidate in memory (equal with Trump), who's husband is the voice of the corporate media and Silicon Valley with all it's surveillance, censorship, and mind control, and made her reputation closing down Backpage and co-authoring SESTA. I'm not making these arguments, I'm simply observing that these type independents aren't coming onboard without major concessions or recognition by the winning establishment wing of the Democratic party. The normal way would have been a VP of Bernie or a lieutenant. Absent that an endorsement of Medicare 4 All (supported by 75% of the US and a majority of Republicans), or withdrawal from the Middle East, or Universal Basic Income, or something important. Instead there was a huge Fuck You to that part of the Democratic voting coalition, Get Out of Our Party... From Kyle, to Crystal, to Tulsi to Bianna to Dore all the "progressive" Bernie team was harassed during the DNC on Twitter and they made clear they knew it was coming from the party. 2016 all over again. "Get out and stay away from our party, we'll win with Republicans." A horrible strategy. You can't depend on Trump staying as personally obnoxious an imbecile that masses of people vote just to turn him out. You have to have a positive message to attract independent young people who really have no use for either party. And you have to be a gracious "winner" and reach out to the "other side" of a party's voters for a general. "We're not named Trump" alone might win. But it's not a sure thing.

You're right. Wall Street has had a dismal record predicting elections. Just today I saw another Wall Street piece that says you need to look to the states controlled by Republicans in the legislatures and governors mansions to see there is a "hidden" Republican base that carries over into presidential politics. A reverse coattails, especially in the midwest and Florida. IDK. As opposed to the snake oil salesmen on Wall Street the Vegas guys do have $ on the line. Even then I check with them more for trends than exact numbers. Like 538 they had Hillary an 80% favorite on election night 2016. But as far as independents, you're wrong. In the old days independents were thought of as "Republican lite". They usually went 2/3 GOP then. But with anti-war sentiment, anti-corruption, pro-free speech, abortion rights, gay rights, etc taking over the young, "independent" really means independent of party label voting strictly on issues. I have a number of young millennials I deal with a lot and they refuse to register as Democrats in DC even though they realize that means they have almost no say in elections in a 90% Democratic city. They don't care. Not acknowledging either of the corrupt dying political parties is that important to them. There's a 100% devotion to what makes sense, what works, what is right, what is moral. (there is a tinge of libertarianism , but that's ok because it's a value of personal, not corporate, liberties.) Bernie, Tulsi, Yang, and Amash were the leaders of the young independents this year. The Democratic party trying to win with Republican votes instead of young independents is a very poor strategy IMO.

This is what staged "Campaign Rallies" look like now and what people see. They used to put a few heads in front of the podium and a few in back and there used to be 100 camera people.This actually was the case in much of 2016 and most of the primaries too (before covid). But sometimes the teleprompter scrolls too damn fast:

Finally AI is providing help in studying Corvid. It's a killer for a reason: https://elemental.medium.com/a-supercomputer-analyzed-covid-19-and-an-interesting-new-theory-has-emerged-31cb8eba9d63

And now this: JPMorgan Says Investors Should Prepare for Rising Odds of Trump Win https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-01/jpmorgan-says-prepare-for-rising-chance-trump-wins-second-term Biden had to come out.

oops, Emerson just threw a damper on. 2% Biden lead (ie losing EC badly). https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/august-2020-presidential-race-tightens-after-party-conventions Even with that they note Trump is still declining in over-65 voters. and Vegas just tanked:

Besides the Pinellas county shocker the other shocker for Biden is a new active-duty military poll. While Trump beat Hillary 2 to 1, and Obama had a 36 percent favorable rating and a 52 percent unfavorable rating in a January 2017 Military Times poll, Biden leads Trump by a good margin. Military is a big voting block in NC and FL (as well as GA and VA). An interesting paragraph is how this younger segment of the population views themselves by "party": ""Another 13 percent said they plan to vote for a third-party candidate, and nearly 9 percent said they plan on skipping the election altogether. About 40 percent of troops surveyed identified as Republican or Libertarian, 16 percent Democrats, and 44 percent independent or another party."" https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/08/31/as-trumps-popularity-slips-in-latest-military-times-poll-more-troops-say-theyll-vote-for-biden/

While I was getting my flu shot at Kaiser last week a nurse mentioned "they" were paying $700 to be in the stage III trials. hmmm. Unfortunately the vaccine is two shots a month apart but it seems very safe, very effective and may be better as a nasal spray eventually. (Let's hope it's more effective than the flu shot).The US government has 300 million doses paid for being made now and the EU has 500 million. https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/experimental-coronavirus-vaccine-safe-produces-immune-response https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/08/28/906797539/what-a-nasal-spray-vaccine-against-covid-19-might-do-even-better-than-a-shot https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200605/covid-19-vaccine-will-probably-require-two-doses

HENDRIKBJORN of BelAmi is advertising on Hunqz in Prague. Usually he only advertises in Zurich and won't work when home. (Highly recommend).

@stevenkesslar Saw this and knew you'd like. I spent half the summer in Pinellas County, FL, The flip county for Florida. The reason polls show Biden up in FL, Charlie Crist's FL 13 is in it, May be America's oldest age county. FL 13=old people. IDK as I saw zero Dem support and Trumpsters everywhere you look. They had the 2000-boat Trump flotilla. Maybe old people never come out? IF Pinellas really is +10 Biden, then Florida is blue and the election's over. Cue Biden to hit Social Security, Medicare and healthcare hard nationally. I'm dubious about Biden and Macomb County, MI or Pinellas but this is where he wins: (there's a similar old flip district in AZ). and don't miss this comment:

The bottom two are this spring and the top is 2 years ago. As an 18-yr old BelAmi newbie he was a skinny, long-haired twink.They used him again at 24 because he got so much hotter. Like several of these guys it's a matter of whether they're bulking for muscles or shredding to show abs. Otherwise consistently much nicer than at 18.

uncaptionable photo of the day I could have gone all election without seeing this. lol

@stevenkesslar you realize now many registered Democrats, especially in the south, vote Trump and how many registered Republicans vote Democratic. Reagan Democrats, Trump Democrats, and now genius Rahm wants to ride a wave of Biden Republicans. Political parties, like the Electoral College, are anachronisms. It's surprising how many states don't register by party anymore and how many that do have pluralities of independents now. Yes, if we had an economics-based party system, like most countries, the party vote would be maybe 80% Democratic. But we don't. We have a political division based on emotional issues memes and narratives. (Ironically perpetuated by the Democratic press). Maybe a woman wouldn't need an abortion if she could afford a child. Maybe gays wouldn't need to get married if they otherwise had health insurance. Maybe rural kids wouldn't want to go kill overseas if they had free college or jobs otherwise. In truth economics is often behind what we consider social issues.

I'd maybe help Bullock and Cunningham even though they'd be conservative. Bullock could have beaten Trump easy. No Hickenlooper fan. Kelly in AZ good shot. Ditto Maine. OTOH...how much money can anyone spend in Montana?? lol. I gave to the National Vote Compact and Black House insurgents after Bernie lost.

and Bingo. Here's the Guardian and Current Affairs saying almost exactly what I did above: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/28/donald-trump-2020-election-feels-like-2016 https://news.yahoo.com/biden-seemingly-didnt-convention-polling-141300982.html The ticket has sunk well below Clinton at this point in swing states and they're all that matter.

Trafalgar was right because it's a pro-Republican poller. I don't worry much about it. And I sincerely doubt the #'s are right, especially Florida I'm afraid.. All I'm looking at now is the trend. ....Kamala chosen---2 days later Trump up 2 pts (3 in swing states) even though Biden gained in personal approval at DNC. Biden gains 4 pts in personal approval but Biden/Harris drops 3 pts in swing states....hmmm..Kenosha happens and Trump up 2 more and 3 more in swing states. Biden will have to come out now and give staged speeches...which are easy. Probably have to do staged "rallies" too. Doesn't mean he'll take secret questions or actually take any policy positions though. We'll see if Trump even got a 1 pt RNC bounce (I doubt it) and if the % stabilizes this week. 2 months is a long time in elections, even with early/mail voting.. and events will happen to affect the vote too. .

If Biden wins the Senate will probably turn blue. NC is a case of reverse coattails where the Dems for Gov and Senate are overwhelmingly popular but Biden is just tied. and several pts lower than nationally. It voted for Obama I but not II.

@stevenkesslar 1st you say you $ to Ossoff for GA Senate, then you say McBath in the same Congressional district he could not win but she did. She's a great Black candidate, he's an awful white one, in a white district more liberal than the state. He can get used to Georgia. Biden gained approval pts at DNC but no national poll pts. Why? BC Kamala's pick gained CA pts but they lost swingstate midwest votes. You should know from CA her approval peaks day 1 and goes down. She did indeed bring Wall Street, AIPAC and Silicon Valley big money. But Dems have more money than they can possibly spend already. Remember Bloomberg? Money only does so much. There's tremendous hatred of Trump but no enthusiasm for these 2. The enthusiasm is all with Trump, and that means a lot. I'm also scared because if this turns out close, and many votes will take over a month to count, there's going to be very little belief in the election. This could be Gore/Bush on steroids during an epidemic, with a meglomanic in power.

I took 3 of these. (I wouldnt waste a cum shot on a pic, BA did that one.)

@stevenkesslar It's not just the 2 pts nationally twice. It's that they're in the battleground states, all that matters, and he's within 2pts in those states. Margin of error. By itself nationally wouldn't matter. Today Trump is in the disaster relief area, and he's headed to Kenosha while Biden is in his basement. Today Vegas dropped their odds from Biden 55/44 to Biden 52/48. Not many people believe in convention bumps anymore. I think it was Kenosha this week and the midwest poll drops moved Vegas a lot. 2 months is a long time of course.