Only the best people.

[Suckrates]

17 minutes ago, Goober said:

It's reported donOLD posted this on TS about the reflecting pool "vandalism": 

“The material was cut right where the video tape showed, for 300 feet or more. People were on their knees with their hands in the water at the exact location of the ‘slashes,’” Trump wrote.

The reflecting pool is 18 inches deep  along the perimeter to 30 inches deep in the center. He thinks "vandals" (evidently, with very long arms) crawled through water for 300 feet cutting the liner with a box cutter? I'd like to see him demonstrate...

 

He ALWAYS has video and evidence and proof BUT chooses NEVER to show it.....  Me thinks he LIES ?   🤔

[Suckrates]

Don't Listen to ME....

but listen to a BLACK MAN spill the tea on Byron Donalds  !

 

 

[Suckrates]

 

For those of you that DONT think Natalie Harp is dangerous, to Trump and national security.....   just go watch  Glenn Close in FATAL ATTRACTION.....

Natalie IS Glenn Close !

[stevenkesslar]

2 hours ago, Suckrates said:

Don't Listen to ME....

but listen to a BLACK MAN spill the tea on Byron Donalds  !

 

 

 

That's a fantastic take down.   Thanks for finding it.   💞

I'm going to get very wonky and detailed-oriented  in this post.  But the bottom line is I'd be delighted if Donalds loses.  That in itself, Florida being Florida, would be a very powerful message. 

It will be even more powerful if it fits into a broader national picture that all the inroads Republicans made with Blacks and Latinos and Asians are now lost.  Because they completely ignored the reasons working class Blacks and Latinos supported them in the first place: making life more affordable, and spending money on us rather than losing Forever Wars.  And the message top Democrats will be:  I.T.S.T.H.E.A.F.F.O.R.D.A.B.I.L.I.T.Y.S.T.U.P.I.D.

My educated guess is that, if Donalds loses, it will require this combination. First, Blacks (and Latinos) who see him as an "Uncle Tom" lackey.  And, second, Whites who live in almost exclusively White parts of Florida that would rather have Jolly, a White former Republican Governor, than Donalds, a Black man.  Race will probably be a factor.  But it will be impossible to say it was race.  Because, if Jolly wins, it will be just as easy to blame Donalds' loss on both personal and political baggage he brings to the race.  Pun intended.

I will be fascinated to see how Black people vote in this election.  That's true in general, given that Trump made inroads, especially with Black men, in 2024.  And it's especially true in Florida.   I looked at several polls and asked Google and there are no polling data I can find on this race that have racial crosstabs.   So I don't think anyone really knows how Donalds will do among Blacks in Florida in a general election.  They are 13 % of an electorate that is more than one third non-White.  So whatever they do will be significant.

If I had to guess, I'd guess that this "Uncle Tom" sentiment will be prevalent and Donalds will lose the Black vote.  The main reason why is the notorious pragmatism of most Black voters, who are very used to voting for candidates with good policies but NOT Black skin. 

One big indicator of that is a recent Politico poll that shows a plurality of Blacks would trade off Black-held House seats for overall Democratic Party success, even if it meant fewer House seats held by Blacks.  In fact, slightly more Black Democrats (42 %, a plurality) were willing to trade away Black seats than White Democrats (39 %, also a plurality) if that is what it took to get a Democratic majority.  Stated differently, Blacks tend to be pragmatic team players. 

It's important to note that the people taking away the Black House seats are Republicans who are erasing predominantly Black House districts in Southern states.  Despite Black and Democratic opposition.  I'm pretty sure Blacks will not reward the Republican Party for wiping out as much of the Congressional Black Caucus as they can.

All that said, the most recent poll average by 270 To Win shows Donalds leading Jolly by an average of 7 points.  The last public poll done that shows Jolly with a 1 point lead was by Change Research in May.  An internal poll by the Democratic Guvs Assn. in August after the primary showed the same:  Jolly has a one point lead. 

Republicans have such a massive voter registration advantage in Florida that a lot of pundits think it's a fool's errand to think you can somehow overcome a built-in lead of over 1.5 million votes.  But there are lots of indications this could be more a close race, like 2018, than a blowout Republican landslide like 2022.

This July poll by Change Research, the same group that did the May poll with Jolly ahead by one point, does spell out the path to victory that could work for Jolly, assuming a blue wave keeps building.

Florida, Florida, Florida

This poll actually shows Jolly up by 6 points among likely voters.  But the poll vastly underestimated how well Donalds would do in the primary.  It said Donalds would get 37 % of the primary vote, and he actually got 48 %.  So it's safe to assume the poll underrepresents Donalds' strengths.   Also, neither RCP nor 270 To Win includes this poll in their general election average.  RCP does include it in their primary polling. And, again, Change Research was an outlier that vastly underestimated Donalds' strength in the Republican primary.  3 of the 5 pollsters got the Donalds winning percentage (48 %) right within the polling margin of error.  One was 5 points off, and Change Research was 11 points off.

But Donalds does not get 50 % of the vote in ANY poll.  So even if we assume Donalds is ahead by 5 points, it's possible Jolly could win.  This poll shows Jolly does much better than Donalds among Independents.  Florida Republicans have a registration advantage of about 1.5 million votes.  But there are 3.3 million registered voters with no party affiliation.  So there is some combination of math where Democratic turnout is strong, Republican turnout is weak, Jolly trounces Donalds with Independents, some Republicans vote for Jolly because he is a moderate former Republican, some racist Republicans don't vote for Donalds because he is Black, and most Blacks reject Donalds as an ass kissing "Uncle Tom".  That is something like what it would take for Jolly to win.

It does seem like Donalds is easy to portray as the ass kissing big money candidate who wants to give Trump and his corporate oligarch friends whatever they what.  As the polling report spells out, he has taken huge amounts of corporate money.  Donalds is easily portrayed as being on the side of AI data centers, which Florida overwhelmingly rejects.  Even on his own terms, Donalds portrays himself as a conservative warrior against woke culture.  (Ewww!!!  The Gays!!!!!!)  But moderate Florida residents may actually want a pragmatist who will focus on fixing cost of living problems, not woke culture.

A few paragraphs on race.

In that report above Change Research says that support for Jolly among likely voters increases from 6 points to 9 points when they showed voters a picture of both men and asked them to read a paragraph summarizing each.  So, inquiring minds want to know.  If true, is this because one man is White and one is Black?  Or is it the language, which in the case of Donalds says he wants to "make Florida safe" and "continue fighting the woke left in Florida"?

Where Byron Donalds struggled in the Florida GOP primary, and why it matters

That analysis also offers a few specific breadcrumbs on race.

Donalds significantly underperformed his winning percentage (by about 7 points) in areas of Florida that were over 90 % White.  Those voters were more likely to vote for the DeSantis candidate, Lt. Guv Jay Collins, who looks like your run of the mill White MAGA guy to me. 

 

It doesn't mean those voters are racist.  Nor does it mean that they won't be loyal team players and go out and vote for Donalds in droves, even though their preferred candidate lost.   Trump is underwater even in Florida, with something like 53 % disapproval.  So it's hard to imagine Team Red is going to be more enthusiastic about voting in 2026 than Democrats.   While democratic socialist Nixon might not win, she might actually get some of the younger college-educated crowd that skips midterm elections to vote.

The dream scenario for Partisan Democrat Moi is that Talarico wins in Texas, Jolly wins in Florida, and Turek wins in Iowa.  Now you have what could be called The Red Wall that worked for Trump crumbling to bits and pieces.  He'll always have Wyoming.  But even Liz Cheney bailed on Trump's Grift Party.  Which Donalds will be a token symbol of.  So they have massive problems.

It would be fair.  Republicans like to say race no longer matters.  It's about the content of your character, not the color of your skin.  If Blacks decide Donalds lacks character and has crappy policies, I'll call that a win.  

And speaking of Trump ass kissers who are lacking in color, Sis, I'll throw this in.  Since it reinforces one of my other recent rants.

 

This would be a wonderful mess for Democrats.  Turek wins Iowa after sounding like a Trump ass kissing Republican, and El-Sayed wins in Michigan after AIPAC tries to crucify him.  How the fuck do you make a party like that work?

That would be a very wonderful problem to have.  Bring it on!

[Suckrates]

34 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:

 

That's a fantastic take down.   Thanks for finding it.   💞

I'm going to get very wonky and detailed-oriented  in this post.  But the bottom line is I'd be delighted if Donalds loses.  That in itself, Florida being Florida, would be a very powerful message. 

It will be even more powerful if it fits into a broader national picture that all the inroads Republicans made with Blacks and Latinos and Asians are now lost.  Because they completely ignored the reasons working class Blacks and Latinos supported them in the first place: making life more affordable, and spending money on us rather than losing Forever Wars.  And the message top Democrats will be:  I.T.S.T.H.E.A.F.F.O.R.D.A.B.I.L.I.T.Y.S.T.U.P.I.D.

My educated guess is that, if Donalds loses, it will require this combination. First, Blacks (and Latinos) who see him as an "Uncle Tom" lackey.  And, second, Whites who live in almost exclusively White parts of Florida that would rather have Jolly, a White former Republican Governor, than Donalds, a Black man.  Race will probably be a factor.  But it will be impossible to say it was race.  Because, if Jolly wins, it will be just as easy to blame Donalds' loss on both personal and political baggage he brings to the race.  Pun intended.

I will be fascinated to see how Black people vote in this election.  That's true in general, given that Trump made inroads, especially with Black men, in 2024.  And it's especially true in Florida.   I looked at several polls and asked Google and there are no polling data I can find on this race that have racial crosstabs.   So I don't think anyone really knows how Donalds will do among Blacks in Florida in a general election.  They are 13 % of an electorate that is more than one third non-White.  So whatever they do will be significant.

If I had to guess, I'd guess that this "Uncle Tom" sentiment will be prevalent and Donalds will lose the Black vote.  The main reason why is the notorious pragmatism of most Black voters, who are very used to voting for candidates with good policies but NOT Black skin. 

One big indicator of that is a recent Politico poll that shows a plurality of Blacks would trade off Black-held House seats for overall Democratic Party success, even if it meant fewer House seats held by Blacks.  In fact, slightly more Black Democrats (42 %, a plurality) were willing to trade away Black seats than White Democrats (39 %, also a plurality) if that is what it took to get a Democratic majority.  Stated differently, Blacks tend to be pragmatic team players. 

It's important to note that the people taking away the Black House seats are Republicans who are erasing predominantly Black House districts in Southern states.  Despite Black and Democratic opposition.  I'm pretty sure Blacks will not reward the Republican Party for wiping out as much of the Congressional Black Caucus as they can.

All that said, the most recent poll average by 270 To Win shows Donalds leading Jolly by an average of 7 points.  The last public poll done that shows Jolly with a 1 point lead was by Change Research in May.  An internal poll by the Democratic Guvs Assn. in August after the primary showed the same:  Jolly has a one point lead. 

Republicans have such a massive voter registration advantage in Florida that a lot of pundits think it's a fool's errand to think you can somehow overcome a built-in lead of over 1.5 million votes.  But there are lots of indications this could be more a close race, like 2018, than a blowout Republican landslide like 2022.

This July poll by Change Research, the same group that did the May poll with Jolly ahead by one point, does spell out the path to victory that could work for Jolly, assuming a blue wave keeps building.

Florida, Florida, Florida

This poll actually shows Jolly up by 6 points among likely voters.  But the poll vastly underestimated how well Donalds would do in the primary.  It said Donalds would get 37 % of the primary vote, and he actually got 48 %.  So it's safe to assume the poll underrepresents Donalds' strengths.   Also, neither RCP nor 270 To Win includes this poll in their general election average.  RCP does include it in their primary polling. And, again, Change Research was an outlier that vastly underestimated Donalds' strength in the Republican primary.  3 of the 5 pollsters got the Donalds winning percentage (48 %) right within the polling margin of error.  One was 5 points off, and Change Research was 11 points off.

But Donalds does not get 50 % of the vote in ANY poll.  So even if we assume Donalds is ahead by 5 points, it's possible Jolly could win.  This poll shows Jolly does much better than Donalds among Independents.  Florida Republicans have a registration advantage of about 1.5 million votes.  But there are 3.3 million registered voters with no party affiliation.  So there is some combination of math where Democratic turnout is strong, Republican turnout is weak, Jolly trounces Donalds with Independents, some Republicans vote for Jolly because he is a moderate former Republican, some racist Republicans don't vote for Donalds because he is Black, and most Blacks reject Donalds as an ass kissing "Uncle Tom".  That is something like what it would take for Jolly to win.

It does seem like Donalds is easy to portray as the ass kissing big money candidate who wants to give Trump and his corporate oligarch friends whatever they what.  As the polling report spells out, he has taken huge amounts of corporate money.  Donalds is easily portrayed as being on the side of AI data centers, which Florida overwhelmingly rejects.  Even on his own terms, Donalds portrays himself as a conservative warrior against woke culture.  (Ewww!!!  The Gays!!!!!!)  But moderate Florida residents may actually want a pragmatist who will focus on fixing cost of living problems, not woke culture.

A few paragraphs on race.

In that report above Change Research says that support for Jolly among likely voters increases from 6 points to 9 points when they showed voters a picture of both men and asked them to read a paragraph summarizing each.  So, inquiring minds want to know.  If true, is this because one man is White and one is Black?  Or is it the language, which in the case of Donalds says he wants to "make Florida safe" and "continue fighting the woke left in Florida"?

Where Byron Donalds struggled in the Florida GOP primary, and why it matters

That analysis also offers a few specific breadcrumbs on race.

Donalds significantly underperformed his winning percentage (by about 7 points) in areas of Florida that were over 90 % White.  Those voters were more likely to vote for the DeSantis candidate, Lt. Guv Jay Collins, who looks like your run of the mill White MAGA guy to me. 

 

It doesn't mean those voters are racist.  Nor does it mean that they won't be loyal team players and go out and vote for Donalds in droves, even though their preferred candidate lost.   Trump is underwater even in Florida, with something like 53 % disapproval.  So it's hard to imagine Team Red is going to be more enthusiastic about voting in 2026 than Democrats.   While democratic socialist Nixon might not win, she might actually get some of the younger college-educated crowd that skips midterm elections to vote.

The dream scenario for Partisan Democrat Moi is that Talarico wins in Texas, Jolly wins in Florida, and Turek wins in Iowa.  Now you have what could be called The Red Wall that worked for Trump crumbling to bits and pieces.  He'll always have Wyoming.  But even Liz Cheney bailed on Trump's Grift Party.  Which Donalds will be a token symbol of.  So they have massive problems.

It would be fair.  Republicans like to say race no longer matters.  It's about the content of your character, not the color of your skin.  If Blacks decide Donalds lacks character and has crappy policies, I'll call that a win.  

And speaking of Trump ass kissers who are lacking in color, Sis, I'll throw this in.  Since it reinforces one of my other recent rants.

 

This would be a wonderful mess for Democrats.  Turek wins Iowa after sounding like a Trump ass kissing Republican, and El-Sayed wins in Michigan after AIPAC tries to crucify him.  How the fuck do you make a party like that work?

That would be a very wonderful problem to have.  Bring it on!

I am hopeful, and doubtful that Blacks will choose Donalds, who is attached to Trump mouth to ass, a man who has gone out of his way to HARM their community, erase their identity, and deny them equality ?    I dont think Blacks can overlook that,  even if Trump does pat Donalds on the head and says "this is one of my Blacks"......  But the Dem attack ads MUST be very clear and specific so the voters know who exactly Donalds IS......   The You Tube i posted of a Black critic exposing Donalds should run on loop.....

But are white voters anger at a high enough level for them to indulge their Racism among Trumps endorsement of the "token black" ?    And is Jolly LOUD enough to show Floridians the reality, and a New Path ?     The results will be an earth shattering signal for the future.... Character also counts,  Jolly comes off like your "uncle" while Donalds doesnt seem authentic or likable.   And turning your back on your community who is made to suffer at the hands of Trump is NOT a good look.