This has NOTHING TO DO WITH TARIFFS. BE PATIENT!!!

[stevenkesslar]

1 hour ago, Suckrates said:

I really DONT think most voters are as wrapped up in politics as you are, and as I have become ? 

No shit.   The only question in my mind is whether I am more into politics than 99 % of people, or 99.9 % of people.  Especially now I have to be careful.  Most of my friends and family are Democrats or Democrat leaners.  And they really don't even want to talk about this shit anymore.  They are either enraged, and it just gets them worked up. Or they just want to tune out a situation they can't stand and will change as quickly as they can next year.  I am pretty sure lots of people have a good reason to vote against this shit, and will.

You and I do reach slightly different conclusions about the people who vote for Trump at the margin.   Meaning NOT the core voters, but the ones that deprived him of the votes to win in 2020 but gave him the votes to win in 2024.  My point is that people driven by racism voted for Trump in 2016, and 2020, and 2024.  There is no question who they will vote for, and no way to change their minds.  There just are not enough of them to ensure he wins.  Studies have proven that, I think.  And if they were 50% + of Americans, Trump would have won by 50%+ in 2016 and 2020.

We agree that most people are not going to pay a whole lot of attention to politics.  And especially in close races like 2024 the winner often gets decided by the people who care the least about politics, and are least likely to vote.  That was definitely true in 2024.  The people who care least about politics and are least likely to vote did vote for Trump, and gave him his narrow edge.  So the hard core racists were always for Trump, and always will be.  The hard core lefties or Gay activists will always be against him.  It's these people who are disinterested and may not even bother to vote who we can largely thank for Trump 2.0. 

So mostly to me what it means is that Democrats better not create a situation like that, if we can avoid it.  But if we create a situation where people who are not interested in politics and may not even vote end up thinking anything else would be better than this shit, that is what allows Trump to get just enough votes to win.  Which he did.  To me that is a pretty simple explanation.

[Suckrates]

9 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

We agree that most people are not going to pay a whole lot of attention to politics.  And especially in close races like 2024 the winner often gets decided by the people who care the least about politics, and are least likely to vote.  That was definitely true in 2024.  The people who care least about politics and are least likely to vote did vote for Trump, and gave him his narrow edge.  So the hard core racists were always for Trump, and always will be.  The hard core lefties or Gay activists will always be against him.  It's these people who are disinterested and may not even bother to vote who we can largely thank for Trump 2.0. 

So mostly to me what it means is that Democrats better not create a situation like that, if we can avoid it.  But if we create a situation where people who are not interested in politics and may not even vote end up thinking anything else would be better than this shit, that is what allows Trump to get just enough votes to win.  Which he did.  To me that is a pretty simple explanation.

LOL yeah, its simple, but disturbing..... the racist lunatics will stay crazy and stuck on Trump and everyone else will get exhausted and Trumplogged, and just tune out, giving Trump or Trump-like a 2028 WIN. 

[Stable Genius]

But, but, but…Trump said the other countries would pay the tariffs, not us. Asking Walmart to "eat the costs" seems to imply differently. It's almost like Trump lied about the tariffs in the first place. Surely, THAT can't be true, can it? Like Mexico paying for the Wall.

 EmmettKlown? Fucknaway?

[Stable Genius]

Funny, Trump will use tariffs against our friends, but is hesitant to use sanctions against our enemies.

[Pete1111]

Trump is deporting the cheapest segment of US labor, which gradually moves the social security fund closer to insolvency (workers paying into the fund that will never collect).  How will the economic engine work if cheapest labor slips away?  

Oh right, tariffs.  So much $$ coming in.   🤣

[Moses]

9 hours ago, Pete1111 said:

cheapest segment of US labor

Do you mean illegal workers? Those who don't pay taxes, who get paid in cash, who don't contribute a single tax dollar to local fire, police, environment, roads, telecommunications, medicine, education, but still benefit from all of this?

9 hours ago, Pete1111 said:

moves the social security fund

Do illegal workers use the social fund?
Some kind of logical contradiction: if they are illegal, why do they have the opportunity to use the social fund? And if they work, then why do they use the fund? Isn't it for the unemployed?

(I honestly don't know how it works in the US)

9 hours ago, Pete1111 said:

Oh right, tariffs.  So much $$ coming in

Tariffs aren't for to get more money from import - this is just side-effect. Tariffs create environment which stimulate foreign companies to built factories  in the country, create jobs and pay taxes locally: without tariffs company will build factory in the country where labor is cheap, but tariffs may change situation - more expensive labor may be more profitable when company will count cost of cheap labor plus tariff. Also tariffs lowering trade debt of country and lowering price of servicing that debt.

 

[vinapu]

6 hours ago, Moses said:

Do you mean illegal workers? Those who don't pay taxes, who get paid in cash, who don't contribute a single tax dollar to local fire, police, environment, roads, telecommunications, medicine, education, but still benefit from all of this?

 

sound plausible but in every economy we will find legal residents locals who also work for cash and never report it i.e. tax cheaters so no reason to single out illegals for tax avoidance.

sad truth is , consumers as a whole are beneficiaries  of illegals as they perform many jobs locals don't want for  a price offered but illegals will do for reason of price  / earning difference between country of employment and original country of residence where their families still may live. 1000 rubles saved stretches much further in rural Tajikistan than in Moscow and 1000 $ in provincial Paraguay may buy much more than inside  Chicago's loop.  In short there's market for their services.

Biggest problem  and source of resentment is fact that new comers may abuse generosity of social support systems in their host countries.

As for not paying taxes, it's also myth to various degree depending on tax regime of country. People may not pay income tax by hiding income but they still pay sales taxes when they purchase goods and also property taxes through rent they pay to their landlords, just to mention  those most popular. ( in my country government take from income tax and sales tax is roughly half / half )

I'm not writing  that to voice support illegal immigration, just to illustrate that issue is much more   complex and multisided than popular clichés in media  are making us to believe

 

[Pete1111]

14 hours ago, Moses said:

Do you mean illegal workers? Those who don't pay taxes, who get paid in cash, who don't contribute a single tax dollar to local fire, police, environment, roads, telecommunications, medicine, education, but still benefit from all of this?

Do illegal workers use the social fund?
Some kind of logical contradiction: if they are illegal, why do they have the opportunity to use the social fund? And if they work, then why do they use the fund? Isn't it for the unemployed?

(I honestly don't know how it works in the US)

Tariffs aren't for to get more money from import - this is just side-effect. Tariffs create environment which stimulate foreign companies to built factories  in the country, create jobs and pay taxes locally: without tariffs company will build factory in the country where labor is cheap, but tariffs may change situation - more expensive labor may be more profitable when company will count cost of cheap labor plus tariff. Also tariffs lowering trade debt of country and lowering price of servicing that debt.

 

Having an economy that thrives on undocumented workers is like apartheid.   No argument from me, except that I'm questioning why react now after decades of living off the fruits of their labor?   Why turn on them like is happening?  Trump claimed he would get rid of the bad element, and not all undocumented workers.  I know, why should we believe him?

But either way, Trump is fucking up what has been working by establishing tariffs, by deporting workers, by growing the billionaire class, by pissing on our neighbors, our friends, our allies...

 

 

[Moses]

13 hours ago, vinapu said:

they still pay sales taxes when they purchase goods and also property taxes through rent they pay to their landlords,

mostly no: they renting property from landlords of their nationality who also do not pay taxes and buy goods in cheap shops where sales mostly going in cash and without taxation

 

[Goober]

The Dunning-Kruger effect describes a cognitive bias where individuals with low competence in a particular area tend to overestimate their abilities, while those with high competence often underestimate their abilities. 

[vinapu]

9 hours ago, Moses said:

mostly no: they renting property from landlords of their nationality who also do not pay taxes and buy goods in cheap shops where sales mostly going in cash and without taxation

 

it depends on country,

I was talking more about illegals in USA or broadly in the West where fiscal apparatus is working much better,   more than Afghanis in Iran or Zimbabweans in Zambia and similar countries where at end of day not much is provided  in terms of government services anyways.  

 ( Property tax if not paid creates lien on property  so eventually will be collected along with interest and city or state may even force sale to collect debt owing. Stores , unless dealing with stolen goods at one point are in tax chain- ie when they purchase their stock  from wholesalers )

[Suckrates]

The HUGE tariff deal Trump reached in Scotland with the EU this week, isnt about Tariffs OR the economy at all.    The EU found a way to reign Trump in, at least temporarily, by agreeing to the short term deal.   The EU decided it was better to be an ally of Trump than fight him,  and the terms of their deal was "reasonable" considering the bonkers terms of other tariff proposals.    Also this way they can keep taking Trumps temperature on Ukraine, and hopefully steer him in a positive direction with aid ?

Everyone is scrambling to be able to find a way to co-exists with Trump eventhough no one Trusts him or thi nks he has a brain in his head ! 

[stevenkesslar]

2 hours ago, Suckrates said:

Everyone is scrambling to be able to find a way to co-exists with Trump eventhough no one Trusts him or thi nks he has a brain in his head ! 

It's out of context.   But I found this funny.

Quote

“If they want to give Pete a pass — fine,” said one of them. “Because at the end of the day, he’s going to keep fucking up.”

That's at the end of a very long Politico piece about how Hegseth keeps fucking up again and again.  But Trump likes him.

In Gay terms, Pretty Pete ingests fully.  He takes Donald's old and small member in all the way, and sucks out whatever may be left.  And no matter how it tastes, Pretty Pete smacks his lips in satisfaction.  Perhaps it has replaced his alcohol addiction?  That is why Donald wants Pete.  If Pete tends to rape and throw his pals under the bus, so what?  That makes him just like Trump.

It is true that in certain fashionable circles in Paris or Brussels, it would be viewed with disdain for Christine Lagarde to get down on her knees and see if she could get the old fat ass she has to negotiate with pumped up enough to drip out whatever she can get.   So instead they make empty promises about how European businesses are going to ingest deeply in America.  Sorry.  I meant invest.  🙄

In the long term, this sucks for America.  Biden was right about that much in his 2020 launch.  If it were one time in 2016 based on a fluke in the electoral college, that can be viewed as NOT America.  Now the world knows.  This IS America.

Then again, I think they probably knew that already.

[RockyRoadTravel]

On 7/28/2025 at 4:30 PM, stevenkesslar said:

It's out of context.   But I found this funny.

That's at the end of a very long Politico piece about how Hegseth keeps fucking up again and again.  But Trump likes him.

In Gay terms, Pretty Pete ingests fully.  He takes Donald's old and small member in all the way, and sucks out whatever may be left.  And no matter how it tastes, Pretty Pete smacks his lips in satisfaction.  Perhaps it has replaced his alcohol addiction?  That is why Donald wants Pete.  If Pete tends to rape and throw his pals under the bus, so what?  That makes him just like Trump.

It is true that in certain fashionable circles in Paris or Brussels, it would be viewed with disdain for Christine Lagarde to get down on her knees and see if she could get the old fat ass she has to negotiate with pumped up enough to drip out whatever she can get.   So instead they make empty promises about how European businesses are going to ingest deeply in America.  Sorry.  I meant invest.  🙄

In the long term, this sucks for America.  Biden was right about that much in his 2020 launch.  If it were one time in 2016 based on a fluke in the electoral college, that can be viewed as NOT America.  Now the world knows.  This IS America.

Then again, I think they probably knew that already.

European imports will now be 15% more expensive for American consumers.  Japanese cars will now be 15% more expensive for American consumers. American automakers will now raise their prices 15% to match. Why?  Because they can, why sell cars at a needless 15% discount if your competitor has to raise their price 15%.  It's called monopoly controlled capitalism, we don't have a "free market".  MAGA economic "policy" doesn't give a shit about America or their supporters.  

[stevenkesslar]

11 minutes ago, RockyRoadTravel said:

European imports will now be 15% more expensive for American consumers.  Japanese cars will now be 15% more expensive for American consumers. American automakers will now raise their prices 15% to match. Why?  Because they can, why sell cars at a needless 15% discount if your competitor has to raise their price 15%.  It's called monopoly controlled capitalism, we don't have a "free market".  MAGA economic "policy" doesn't give a shit about America or their supporters.  

I think it is both more complicated and worse than that.

First, there will be tariffs on imported parts on cars manufactured in the US.  It's a war on North American supply chains and auto workers in Canada and Mexico. Screw those auto workers!

Second, as a result, prices will go up because cars cost more - thanks to Trump taxes.  How do Trump taxes lower prices?  They don't.

Third, if prices go up thanks to Trump taxes, how does that help US auto workers negotiate higher wages?  Pressure will be on auto makers to NOT raise prices any more than they have to.  Do they achieve that by giving auto workers big raises?  It makes no sense.

One of my family members who is an Establishment Republican type and works for a large consulting firm is working on this now.  He told me one prevailing view, I guess he meant among the consulting class, is that the last one to raise prices wins.   That makes sense as a business strategy, if that is what happens.  If there is any such thing as a car or SUV made 100 % in the US, in theory it could give a US car maker a competitive advantage in the US.

My response to this was to cite Ruben Gallego's claim that every Latino man in America wants a big ass truck in his driveway.  And they won't be happy when those big ass trucks cost more.  This family member could not relate.  We were actually sitting in his brand new luxury SUV with all the latest gadgets. How could he relate?

It seems like a misguided policy.  The same Establishment Republican types were behind the loss of millions of factory jobs when W. was President a generation ago.  That was when the great shredding of US manufacturing happened, while Republicans ruled and Democrats like Biden protested in favor of "fair trade". 

So Trump has kind of embraced the slogan.  But these days "fair trade" basically means "you pay more for your big ass truck".  It's not gonna go down well.

 

 

[RockyRoadTravel]

16 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:

It seems like a misguided policy.  The same Establishment Republican types were behind the loss of millions of factory jobs when W. was President a generation ago.  That was when the great shredding of US manufacturing happened, while Republicans ruled and Democrats like Biden protested in favor of "fair trade". 

 

 

 

That's partly a big ole misunderstanding.  The shedding of manufacturing jobs in the USA had/has more to do with technological change than it does with free trade.  Yes, multi-nationals chased lower wages in the 3rd world to increase profits, but equally if not more important, was the automation of production in the USA which laid off millions of American workers.  Is there anyone out there stupid enough to think that AI, under this  MAGA regime, is going to be used to improve the economic situation of the American working-class?  You know, use AI to shorten work weeks and raise wages.  That's so 2022.   

[stevenkesslar]

34 minutes ago, RockyRoadTravel said:

That's partly a big ole misunderstanding.  The shedding of manufacturing jobs in the USA had/has more to do with technological change than it does with free trade.  Yes, multi-nationals chased lower wages in the 3rd world to increase profits, but equally if not more important, was the automation of production in the USA which laid off millions of American workers.  Is there anyone out there stupid enough to think that AI, under this  MAGA regime, is going to be used to improve the economic situation of the American working-class?  You know, use AI to shorten work weeks and raise wages.  That's so 2022.   

It's already happening.   Youth unemployment keeps going up.  And there are lots of stories about unusually high unemployment rates among recent college graduates, who usually have low unemployment rates.  Maybe it is uncertainty about the Trump tariffs.  Or maybe it is AI.  Or maybe it is all of the above.  So on the one hand there is this false promise that you're gonna pay more for your big ass truck so we can have more blue collar factory jobs.  And meanwhile white collar jobs will be shredded by AI.  I don't get how that is progress, yet.

All those young Zoomer men who thought the blue collar billionaire Trump understood their problems ain't gonna be happy.

Growing China trade deficit cost 3.7 million American jobs between 2001 and 2018

Jobs lost in every U.S. state and congressional district

That's a nice summary.  We know that while Bill Clinton was POTUS manufacturing was stable - from 16.8 million jobs in Jan. 93 on his first month to 17.1 million factory jobs on his last day.  From there it was freefall to 11.4 million jobs by the Great Recession bottom in early 2010.  So you can ding Obama for inheriting a financial crisis and Clinton for advancing the WTO based on promises of US job gains.  But mostly this played out under Republican rule and Republican "free trade" policies. Biden was actually one of the ones who protested it at the time.  And as you note it was some combination of being replaced by cheaper labor somewhere else, or automation.  More for capitalists, less for labor.  What a shocker!

One nice thing about Trump is he has identified the problems, without really putting forward solutions.  He lost in 2020 in part because people who live in these former factory towns said nothing really got better under Trump.  In 2024 he won thanks in part to young men who felt at least Trump did not call them toxic.  Now they get toxic Epstein drama, and the right to pay more for their big ass trucks to support Elon's tax cuts while the deficits that will fuck them good go up.  Woo hoo!

Maybe at some point Democrats will actually fight back to solve these problems.

 

[RockyRoadTravel]

12 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:

It's already happening.   Youth unemployment keeps going up.  And there are lots of stories about unusually high unemployment rates among recent college graduates, who usually have low unemployment rates.  Maybe it is uncertainty about the Trump tariffs.  Or maybe it is AI.  Or maybe it is all of the above.  So on the one hand there is this false promise that you're gonna pay more for your big ass truck so we can have more blue collar factory jobs.  And meanwhile white collar jobs will be shredded by AI.  I don't get how that is progress, yet.

All those young Zoomer men who thought the blue collar billionaire Trump understood their problems ain't gonna be happy.

Growing China trade deficit cost 3.7 million American jobs between 2001 and 2018

Jobs lost in every U.S. state and congressional district

That's a nice summary.  We know that while Bill Clinton was POTUS manufacturing was stable - from 16.8 million jobs in Jan. 93 on his first month to 17.1 million factory jobs on his last day.  From there it was freefall to 11.4 million jobs by the Great Recession bottom in early 2010.  So you can ding Obama for inheriting a financial crisis and Clinton for advancing the WTO based on promises of US job gains.  But mostly this played out under Republican rule and Republican "free trade" policies. Biden was actually one of the ones who protested it at the time.  And as you note it was some combination of being replaced by cheaper labor somewhere else, or automation.  More for capitalists, less for labor.  What a shocker!

One nice thing about Trump is he has identified the problems, without really putting forward solutions.  He lost in 2020 in part because people who live in these former factory towns said nothing really got better under Trump.  In 2024 he won thanks in part to young men who felt at least Trump did not call them toxic.  Now they get toxic Epstein drama, and the right to pay more for their big ass trucks to support Elon's tax cuts while the deficits that will fuck them good go up.  Woo hoo!

Maybe at some point Democrats will actually fight back to solve these problems.

 

As much as Bill Clinton irritates me (his light embrace of the Reagan revolution's attack on the American middle-class [and Hilary would have been a better president than him]) I thought his quote from the Democratic convention was stunning.  When he said that in the last 30+ years 1 million net jobs have been created under Republican presidents, and 80 million net jobs have been created under Democrats.  Research backs up his statement. There's a message to bang home to anyone who's listening. (I chose the word 'bang' because you might be thinking about Man-do-me's messaging.)

[stevenkesslar]

23 minutes ago, RockyRoadTravel said:

As much as Bill Clinton irritates me (his light embrace of the Reagan revolution's attack on the American middle-class [and Hilary would have been a better president than him]) I thought his quote from the Democratic convention was stunning.  When he said that in the last 30+ years 1 million net jobs have been created under Republican presidents, and 80 million net jobs have been created under Democrats.  Research backs up his statement. There's a message to bang home to anyone who's listening. (I chose the word 'bang' because you might be thinking about Man-do-me's messaging.)

Add another great Clinton line.   Or word:  "Arithmetic"

Clinton: "Arithmetic" created surplus budgets

Dick Cheney said a long time ago that Reagan proved deficits don't matter, politically.  He has yet to be proven wrong.  But maybe that is where Zoomers come in.

I have a lot of fun teasing my nieces and nephews about their cynicism.  But their argument is that if I grew up in an America where the government actually got shit done, maybe I would be less cynical.  So now it seems like everybody under 40 likes to blame Boomers for this big ass deficit they will spend the rest of their lives paying off, for shit Boomers got and they didn't.  Assuming they have a job.   Meanwhile, it was our first Boomer POTUS, Bill Clinton, that got us a surplus.

Hopefully a lot of Zoomer men learned the hard way in 2024.  And in 2028 they might want to talk about jobs and deficits instead.  If some Democrat like Clinton can figure it out.