The Current General Election - Another Shinawatra On The Horizon?

[PeterRS]

I am rather surprised there has been no thread dedicated to the General Election currently in progress - apart from bars not serving alcohol. 

Judging by the result of the last election three years ago won by the new Move Forward Party with massive support largely from younger generations, this one could go the same way. The trouble with Thai politics is that the elite and those in oower never want to give it up. The modernist progressive Move Forward party which won the last election was disallowed largely on the basis of trumped up charges. The elitist Consitutional Court banned the party and its populist leader Pita Limjaroenrat from politics for ten years. The reason for Khun Pita being banned would have meant nothing in most other countries. But he and his team failed to do their utmost in due diligence to ensure there was no reason for banning them. On this flimsy technicality the elite acted. Sadly this is not uncommon in Thailand and the Constitutional Court cearly is made up mostly of the elite.

This year there is a subtle difference in the election. Electors have three botes to make. The first for an MP to serve their constituency. The second for a list of party's hopeful MPs nationwide. Of the 500 MPs, 400 will be elected on the basis of the winner takes all. The 100 party-ist seats are allocated proportionately around the country.

The third vote this time is in effect a referendum: do electors want a new Constitution for the country? How this Constitution will be drafted and what it will include is in the lap of the Gods - presumably the elite Gods!

Of the five major parties contesting the election, all but one have played a role in the last government. Following the disbandment of Move Forward, Pheu Thai gained the next most votes. This was the Shinawatra Clan party set up after its earlier party had been banned more than a decade ago. That was led by Thaksin's daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the youngest in his clan to rule the government. Her idiotic leaked phone call with former PM of Cambodia Hun Sen led to her resignation. And we thought that's it! The end of Shinawatra influence. But it seems we were too hasty. For the coming election, Pheu Thai has nominated Yodchanan Wongsawat, a nephew of Thaksin, as its leader! The minority BJP has put forward its recent Prime Minister, Anutin Charnvirakul, a highy ambitious snake-like figure who dissolved parliament presumably in an attempt to seek a majority.

The big question mark around this election is how the new party, the People's Party, formed from the rump of the banned Move Forward, will fare. Factually it won the last election with 151 seats against Pheu Thai's 141. But it won a whacking majority of the votes with 14.4 million votes against Pheu Thai's 10.9 million. More to the point, Move Forward gained a much larger slice of the city and younger electors' votes. Pheu Thai may hold a majority of votes in Northeast which has 133 votes up for grabs. How many of these may go to the new party is anyone's guess. The new party's basic platform is that Thailand is trapped in outdated systems that must be changed before the country can really move forward. Anutin and other parties are gambling on national security and sovereignty.

There is a far better argued article in the Bangkok Post (see below).

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/politics/3192080/democracy-calls-so-whats-new-this-time

[TMax]

My view is there will be a coalition of sorts formed after the election as no single party will win a clear majority and after what happened last time, any party thinking of forming a coalition with a certain party (of a particular clan) had better watch their backs. I truly hate dynasty politics (where families want to keep power through their generations) and just wish people in the Asia region would wake up to it and vote accordingly. 

[hank75]

2 hours ago, PeterRS said:

Her idiotic leaked phone call with former PM of Cambodia Hun Sen led to her resignation.

I still wonder occasionally who leaked that phone call, was it a disgruntled subordinate as “Uncle” claimed or the man himself 

[PeterRS]

I suspect - and this is merely a guess - it was one of Anutin's henchmen. His personal ambition has long been very obvious. Creating a massive fuss over that call played perfectly into his hands and handed him the premiership. 

[PeterRS]

It seems from the initial accounts - not aways accurate - provided by the BBC website that Thailand is falling back into the old ways. After 90% of votes had been counted, the snake Anutin's Party had a huge increase more than doubling the number of the Party's seats to 194. The People's Party, widely expected to progress from the votes for the banned Move Forward Party, actually lost quite a few seats, although it is in second place with 116 seats. If there is one blessing it is that Pheu Thai-led corrupt Shinawatra clan suffered a huge drop from the last election down to 86 seats. 

I have a feeling that one reason for the People's Party doing less well is its leader. Move Forward's Pita Limjaroenrat was a proven, highly educated, young international business leader with massive charisma. Following in his footsteps was always going to be highly problematic. Even the election of his successor, the equally young Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, came as a surprise when Sirkianya Tansakun, Pita's former Deputy, had been widely expected to take over.

Now will come the jockeying for position with no doubt the ugly side of Thai politics coming to the fore once again.

 

[TMax]

1 hour ago, PeterRS said:

If there is one blessing it is that Pheu Thai-led corrupt Shinawatra clan suffered a huge drop from the last election down to 86 seats. 

Looking at the numbers I have a feeling that an awful lot of Thai voters have had enough of that clan being in politics. Now comes the fun part, if Anutins party doesn't get the required numbers for an outright majority to form government on its own just who will he choose for a coalition partner? If he looks at what happend to the parties that went to bed with Pheu Thai previously he should see they can't be trusted and just in my view would turn on him real quick. Either The People's Party or Klatham are the only logical ones to choose from but anything is possible there.