lookin

As far as I can tell, there's a built-in problem for authoritarian followers. They have to wait until their leader has settled in on what they need to believe. If they head out on their own today, and the leader takes a different direction tomorrow, they've got some serious cleanup to do. Or they may be under the bus for good. Trump is unpredictable on the best of days. With the curves he's been thrown recently (Biden, Harris, Project 2025), he's going to take some time figuring out his targets. Anyone who speaks his mind before then is taking a big risk. I'd be surprised if someone as opinionated as Vance stays out of trouble. I wouldn't be surprised to hear radio silence from Trump's loyal followers until the cue cards are signed off and printed.

Perhaps Trump farts botox?

I continue to think that every Democratic candidate, especially at the national level, should focus like a laser on the implications of Project 2025. Trump should not have the luxury of mealy-mouthing his way around this plan to turn civil servants - many with decades of non-partisan skills and expertise - into political appointees. If Trump supports this plan, which is similar to threats he has made in the past, he needs to say so. If he rejects this plan, he should be forced to say so. Picking a lane is not something the chief deflector is likely to do. If he supports it, he's telegraphing his intent to force all citizens into compliance with the wishes of a few. If he rejects it, he's driving a wedge between himself and the oligarchs who want to replace democracy. If I were on the campaign trail, I'd make sure Trump has to confront Project 2025 in every rally, debate, interview and event he attends. In my opinion, it would be political malpractice to let this issue remain in the shadows.

Totally agree about Biden's governing ability and I've never related it to how old he was. Also totally agree about Trump's governing inability. But he was pumping mud four years ago too. And eight years ago. Pick an age and I'll show you a misfire.

Thanks, @stevenkesslar. 👍 You always dig deeper into issues and background than I've got the time and ability to do, and it provides valuable context and insight. Your 'elder statesman' role for Biden is really appealing. I think how lucky we are to have experienced and committed folks like Pelosi and Sanders and (if he follows your advice) Biden. And, if he needs a nap from time to time, I'd be happy to fluff his pillows.

Personally, I hope Democrats don't pick up the 'too old' cudgel and use it against Trump. It was misguided when used against Biden and I think it's misguided if used against Trump. Not necessary either. Trump's got a lot more wrong with him than the number of candles on his birthday cake. 🎂

In a recent survey conducted by the Presidential Greatness Project, two hundred scholars from multiple disciplines ranked Joe Biden as our fourteenth best President, a couple spots below Bill Clinton and a couple spots ahead of Ronald Reagan. They ranked Abraham Lincoln first and Donald Trump dead last. Isn't it strange that the party that brought us our greatest President of all time is now convinced it can bring back our worst? Of course two hundred Presidential scholars won't hold a candle to the combined wisdom of today's Republican strategists, so it was no doubt silly of me to even raise the question. I'll show myself out.

If you ask me, the Democratic campaign should start, first thing in the morning, with a laser focus on what Project 2025 has in store for American voters and their families. That would include what it proposes, who's behind it, and exactly how they plan to make it happen. For now, forget about Biden, forget about Harris, and let candidate selection take its course as it always does. If Democrats keep the focus on Project 2025, all of the messaging goes to defeating the current Republican agenda as outlined in Project 2025. In my opinion, it doesn't make sense right now for Democrats to focus all their attention on the Presidential election. What if Biden and Harris get elected and the Senate and the House go to Republicans? The Democrats need both the Executive and Legislative branches if they hope to get anything done and that includes retaining a democracy that's responsive to what its citizens want, rather than what the Heritage Foundation wants. I'm sure no political genius, but even I can see that there are bigger issues than squeezing out a narrow win for the Presidency and roiling up everybody in the process. Democrats need to let folks know every day in every way that Project 2025 and the Republicans who back it are planning to convert a democracy, in which citizens have a voice, into an autocracy, in which they don't. In fact, while Democrats take the next few weeks to sort out their ticket, I'll even propose an ad that can run in the meantime. Don't lose your voice! Keep 'em out.

Donald Trump: In this moment, it is more important than ever that we stand united, and show our true character as Americans . . . Melania Trump: This morning, ascend above the hate, the vitriol, and the simple-minded ideas that ignite violence . . . Donald Trump, Jr: (my father) will never stop fighting to save America, no matter what the radical left throws at him . . . I'm glad husband and wife are on the same page today and hope to hear similar messages in the days and weeks ahead. It would be nice if they could also bring Trump's firstborn under the tent. Divisiveness has brought us where we are today and continued divisiveness will take us further down a predictable road. There are 434 million guns in the US right now, including 23 million AR-15's. It's foolish to believe that anyone who circulates in crowds is out of range of a weapon that can kill at a distance of 300-400 feet. Congress can harass the Secret Service and the FBI all they like, but someone with an AR-15 and the intent to kill will find a way through. As far as I can tell, it's the intent to kill that needs to be throttled back. We can all see that social media algorithms have been designed to amplify - rather than reduce - the fear and dislike of "the other". Once a divisive message is sent, there's no limit to how many will receive it. And, just based on the odds, some who receive the message will attempt to act on it and will have the means to do so. Rather than wait for the next bullet to strike, I'd encourage us all to stop receiving and passing along divisive messages. At best, they clutter our brains with toxins and, at worst, they get amplified and push someone over the edge to violence. I'm not suggesting we all turn into Pollyanna. What I am suggesting is that next time someone makes a divisive comment, either ignore it or just call it out as divisive and let it drop. Without the feedback loop, these messages can fade into background noise and eventually die out. Until social media algorithms are tuned to filter out divisive messages, perhaps we could start doing it ourselves. I think even a little bit would help.🤞

We must have been separated at birth! 😄

Unlike Donald Trump and a few of my esteemed fellow posters, I've never believed that the President is the one and only person responsible for the accomplishments of an administration. In my opinion, the President sets the values and goals for his or her term in office, represents the country among other nations, and picks the right team to support her or him. For many years, 80% of my vote has been based on the compassion of a candidate. The other 20% would be based on the candidate's ability to select and empower the folks responsible for implementing those goals effectively. Trump may tell us that he's the only one who matters, but I don't believe it. So, in spite of Biden's recent fumbles, as well as his fumbles throughout his presidency so far, I'd be OK with voting for him again. I think with his values and a competent team around him, he could continue to deliver results that are good for the country. However, and it's a big however, the mental challenges he displayed in last night's debate are likely to increase over the next four years. There may come a time, for example, when he would not be considered trustworthy by other world leaders, or when he would pick the wrong battle or the wrong strategy to implement. Four years of keeping my fingers crossed ever more tightly, is not something I'd look forward to. The one good thing about last night's debate performance is that there's still time to do something about it. If we'd seen a Joe Biden firing on all cylinders, we'd have run the risk that he'd topple in the second debate with no time to find an alternative. So, sad as I am that Biden failed to impress last night, I'm glad the Democratic convention is still ahead of us, rather than behind us.

Barbara Res, an executive with The Trump Organization for nearly twenty years, offered some advice for the Biden debate team: “I wish [Biden] would goad him and make him go nuts, because when he goes nuts, he’s really crazy,” Res said. Not sure I can make it through the whole debate, especially as there's a test pattern on opposite, but I will be checking the late news to see if there's anything new for the scrapbook.

What's that awful stench? ... Dear Lord, please take me now . . It wasn't me, I did nothing wrong Just try to ignore it . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Something just died in here

It occurred to me that, seventy-eight years ago, little Donnie Trump was soiling his diapers while little Joey Biden was fully potty trained. Fast forward to today, and I'm wondering how much has changed.

Perhaps they're busy sprucing up his cell.

It looks like he's been rimming a water buffalo.

Personally, I don't have a problem with Biden's overall performance nor with his age but I do give some extra weight to his Vice President. Not only would I like to see a VP who could be a real contender in 2028 but also one who could step in earlier if necessary. And, sadly, Kamala Harris doesn't tick those boxes for me. I've never felt I'd enjoy having a beer with her, plus she's been given the job of fixing the border and I haven't seen any evidence that she's succeeded or even shown much interest. I worry that he'll handicap himself with Harris as a running mate, though I expect that's what he'll do. I'll still vote for him, but never stop wishing that someone like Michelle Obama would be his running mate. And, yes, I know that wish will not be granted. Similar calculations with Trump, in my opinion. Plus he'll throttle any running mate who stands for something besides kissing his ass. If you ask me, his best bet would be Nikki Haley and she does seem to be puckering up for a big wet one. 💋 I've never paid much attention to VP picks, and the issue doesn't count at all with Lichtman. But somethin' tells me it could be more of a factor this time. Both Biden and Trump need all the help they can get.

So it looks like he hit his bogey yesterday, keeping the stock price above $17.50 for twenty days, and he's been awarded another 36 million shares. If my math is right, that brings his total holdings to 115 million shares. As if on cue, yesterday Devin Nunes asked Congress to investigate the potential "unlawful manipulation of DJT stock." Now that Trump has pocketed his 'earnout' bonus, my prediction was - and is - that he'll start bellyaching that he's once again being 'treated unfairly'. It would be nice if, just this once, he'd step up and say, "I'm running this business, my name is on the door, and it's up to me to make it a success and deliver value to our shareholders. I, Donald J. Trump, will make sure my investors and supporters are not left holding the bag." If he can make America great again, why can't he make Trump Media great again?

Perhaps he'd have better luck during the holidays.

In addition to today's dilution, there's at least one other shoe ready to drop, and that's when Trump receives an additional 36 million shares. It's part of his original deal and all he has to do is keep the stock price above $17.50 for twenty of any thirty days during a ninety day period that started on March 25th. Don't ask me who came up with that bogey, but it's one that Trump is likely to hit by the end of April. I'm not sure if today's announcement has anything to do with Trump's extra 36 million shares. But it does help me understand why Trump is keeping his pie hole shut about Trump Media and DJT stock. I'm sure he wants to avoid any focus on the extra 36 million shares until they're safely in his pocket. It's so unlike Trump to keep quiet about anything. At first I thought he'd dummy up until he'd found somebody to blame for the lousy performance of yet another Trump 'business'. Based on his past performance, I'd be surprised if he doesn't already have somebody(s) in mind to take the blame. My guess is he'll stay quiet until he's got the additional 36 million shares. And then we'll hear that he's been running a 'perfect' business worth at least ten billion dollars and that somebody is out to get him and the stock is a bargain anywhere under a hundred bucks.

Looks like some folks came in this morning and unloaded a few million shares in the first hour of trading, knocking the price down another five bucks (12%). There were some buyers at that price and the stock clawed back two dollars and then headed south again. It occurred to me that Trump himself, along with his family members, have the ability to buy more shares and help support the stock price. Perhaps they were among the buyers at midmorning. It would be a nice thing to do to help his supporters stay afloat. I also remembered that Trump met with Elon Musk in early March. Ostensibly, it was to get Musk's support for Trump's candidacy. While that didn't happen, it makes me wonder if they also discussed Musk's possible purchase of Trump Media. Musk's purchase of Twitter indicated that he's not averse to pissing away his billions in search of some kind of media footprint. And, if Trump gets elected, he could sure help Musk keep the government contracts flowing toward SpaceX. Seems like there's the basis for a deal between Musk and Trump but, for now, it would seem to hinge on Trump's getting elected. So now I can see two paths forward for this struggling stock, but they both require Trump to get elected. On the one hand, I've got to appreciate the amount of risk that Trump is willing to take in his business dealings. On the other hand, I'm content to be among those who aren't along for the ride. 😳

I think you've got it right. I can't say exactly who the buyers are but it's been widely reported that institutional investors are giving the stock a wide berth, so it's mostly retail investors who are putting up the cash. And they can't be very sophisticated if they're counting on Devin Nunes to lead them to a pot of gold. His own auditors have expressed concern that the company may not be able to keep operating for much longer. As I posted upstream, I was toying with the idea of shorting the stock but there are so many others with the same idea that it's costing them 500% annual interest to 'borrow' the shares they plan to sell back at a lower price. So I'll continue to be just a bystander. The oddest thing I've come across is the decision by Forbes a couple days ago to increase Trump's net worth by $3.4 billion. I'm guessing that's based on his ownership of 79 million shares of DJT stock, which they appear to have valued at $43 a share. I'm sure he could sell a hundred shares at that price and maybe a thousand shares at that price but, if he ever tried selling 79 million shares at that price, the stock would crater. The only thing I can think of that would justify the current stock price is Trump's actually winning the election and siccing the FCC on his competitors. "But, Lookin", you say, "don't we have laws that would prevent him from driving other social media companies out of business?" Sure we do. For now.

That, and how many shares? This could be a fun thread if folks were willing to post their buys and sells, and at what prices. I've been toying with the idea of shorting the stock. Problem is, (a) I've never shorted a stock and (b) I read that this is one of the most expensive stocks to short, whatever that means. But, if I do figure out how and when to do it, I'll definitely post my numbers.

Funny, you don't look Canadian . . .. . . . . . . . . . .

Thanks for the info. It seems strange that gay clubs can survive in a place where Pride earrings get you a jail sentence. But much of the world seems pretty strange these days. Honestly, every time I get ready to tell the Russians or Chinese what to do, I see our President slow-walking the Israeli destruction of Gaza. If I can't get my own country to help a disappearing population survive, I'm not sure how effective I can be in solving problems on the other side of the world. Haven't given up, that's for sure, but for me this is a time of focus on things closer to home.