stevenkesslar

Who is saying that? Trump to all the rapists and crooks in America? JD Vance to all the men who want to grab the pussies of childless women? Kamala Harris - if that is who you mean - literally said, "Don't come." Kamala Harris - if that is who you mean - backed a compromise immigration reform bill written by conservative Senator James Lankford that Trump killed. Trump is chaos. Trump is crime. Trump is rape, Trump is sexual assault. Trump is a crook. Murder jumped 30 % on Trump's watch in 2020. Guns flowed. Blood flowed. Harris and Biden reduced murder by about 20 % in the last two years. Harris stands for the rule of law. Trump is a rapist, a liar, a crook. Let change in. Let the rule of law in. Let the future in.

Not sure I understand your point. What about Humphrey and McGovern?

And here's where we are now. The choice of states is interesting. Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona were supposed to be in the bag. Instead, they were supposed to be going after Virginia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota. Here's the new Emerson swing state poll: Compare it to this poll, back in APRIL - in other words, when people thought Biden was doing okay and could win. Harris is doing better right now than Biden was doing in April. Arizona is her weakest state and immigration is her weakest issue. Which is why I hope she picks Mark Kelly. The other thing Kelly can do that I would not underestimate is go after Trump and Vance for being weak and feeble on America's defense. Arizona and Georgia have more electoral votes combined than Pennsylvania. Trump lacks the mental acuity to do anything other than lie, rant, and divide. But Susie and Chris obviously want to block Harris two ways: stop her in Pennsylvania, and stop her from replacing Pennsylvania with a Sun Belt strategy. Harris should go for all three states. There is every reason to think she can win all three. Gallego is ahead in Arizona. Casey is ahead in Pennsylvania. Biden won Georgia, as did Ossoff and Warnock. Trump is toast.

Trump is in full melt down mode. Here's Trump's best comeback to Harris spelling out his actual crooked behavior: sexual abuse, fraud, cheating. Trump says it is "disgusting" and "real garbage" and "disgraceful" and "Third World". It is all a Democratic attack. Trump Responds To Kamala Harris: "Would Love To Be Nice, But I'm Dealing Against Real Garbage" To quote the First Gentleman, is that seriously the best he's got? E. Jean Carroll and a jury of his peers are a Democratic attack? Trump just rants and lies. He lacks mental acuity. What is wrong with this stupid crook? I'm going to keep posting that. 2 in 3 Americans do not think this is "real garbage". They are seriously concerned that Trump is a real crook. In the most recent polls,57 % of Americans want Trump to step aside as candidate. Not because he is too old. Because he is a crook. Yes, I'm glad the Republicans are talking about firing the sexist liar Vance. But first they should fire the crooked rapist Trump.

Well, you had me until the last line, @lookin. I think we're long past that.

I think some of what Vance's accomplices in crime are saying is actually helpful. A JD Vance-aligned think tank is stirring the pot with conservatives The American Compass think tank, tied to Sens. JD Vance and Marco Rubio, is challenging conservative thinking on free markets. There's an easy way to attack this. Which is it is just more preening and posing and bullshitting for votes. The simple word, which Team Trump knows well, is "lie". They lie to working class people about how the things THEY did 15 years ago turned out awful. So after we fucked you, and fucked you, and fucked you, trust us. Because now we are the good guys. Until we fuck you again. I hope Harris and whoever she picks as Veep dives into this and tears the lies apart. This is like the diet version of being against unions and workers. It's still Mountain Dew, JD. You fake liar. The nice thing about this is that even some conservatives are admitting tax cuts don't work. Oren Cass is interesting. He wants a Republican Party that is friendlier to workers. But he was one of the guys involved in Project 2025, which recommends further corporate tax cuts. It is lipstick on a pig. Romney hits Obama on free trade Back in 2012, Romney attacked Obama for not going far enough on free trade. Cass was Romney's domestic policy adviser, and literally his right hand man in the photo above. So what Cass is basically saying now is we fucked up back then, by encouraging China to take good paying factory jobs away. So now we want to fix that by putting a 10 % tax on whatever you buy that is imported, so that more things will be made in the US. Cass actually admits that the immediate impact of 10 % tariffs is prices will go UP, not down. But just like how globalization was all going to work out fine in the end, this is going to work out, too. These people all have the radicalism and extremism of recent converts. JD is a convert to Catholicism and to Trumpism. I suppose you could say he is a convert to treating women and cats decently, as well. He is totally full of shit. Biden actually has receipts on this issue. All through the Naughties, when the US was shedding millions of factory jobs under Republican rule, Biden was attacking W.'s policies and calling for FAIR trade. Trump wants to raise prices on Americans. It was Republican trade policies that fucked over factory workers to start with. The US lost 6 million factory jobs from Jan.2001 to Jan.2009 with W. and his Republican free trade policies. Trump's corporate tax cuts fucked workers over again. In 2019, when the tax cuts were supposed to bring factory jobs back, the US LOST 40,000 factory jobs. Now they want to add insult to injury by raising prices. Harris and her Veep should explain the trail of failed Republican policies that hurt workers and unions, and tear their lying asses apart.

Actually, Kamala is doing a lot better with Independents than Biden. From a new CNN poll, which shows Trump leading her by 3 points, 49/46. And that's about the worst Kamala does in the new polls. Two pollsters have her leading: Reuters by +2 and Morning Consult by +1. Two other polls show Trump leading: NYT and NPR both shows Trump at +1. These polls were all done after Biden resigned. So basically the race is tied. The first swing state poll by Emerson shows Wisconsin is tied, and Trump is leading +1 in Michigan and +2 in Pennsylvania. All of that is because Independents, women, Blacks, Hispanics, and young voters are moving to Harris. Oh, and the Gays like Harris, too! Poor Genocide Man he was so hoping Trump would win.

What do you mean? Harris proves JD's point. Harris is a single woman, basically. Yeah, she adopted children that she did not give birth to. But that doesn't count. She can not be a patriot. She isn't even really a woman. And she is certainly unqualified to serve in government without having borne children like real women do. It is the damn right message for America in 2024. Which is why most women are embracing JD's moral guidance. JD is even going to get the cat vote!

Meanwhile, Mark Kelly is simply calling him out for being an impotent little wonder of a man. I'd say he's all brawn, no brains. But that would be unfair to brawn. Weak, weak, weak. Fake, fake, fake. Sen. Mark Kelly, a Harris veep contender, rips into JD Vance on Ukraine

And here's the rough draft. The argument to Pennsylvania: "she's not one of us."

Can we do Lavender Haze? Okay, the video has nothing to do with this thread. But is is adorable. And the story is about "what can be, unburdened by what has been". And about a woman getting elected POTUS. Can't wait to see the Cackles version.

Besides. Harris, like Whitmer, is Brat. What is it about joy and empowered women you despise, @EmmetK?

And Trump is proving that older men really do slow down. Not that Trump ever had much mental acuity or integrity to start with. Why is Trump dumb as rocks? If you need any evidence whatsoever that voters want to move forward, not backward, look at what happened to Biden and his recitation of all the things he got done. What voters want to hear about is the future. So apart from the fact that those numbers in your chart are lies, lies, and lies, what does Trump want to do about 3 % inflation and wages that are now rising faster than inflation? The rapist and lying crook wants to cut taxes even more for billionaires. The rapist and lying crook wants to cut taxes even more for corporations. The rapist and lying crook wants to add a 10 % tax on anything you buy that is imported. The rapist and lying crook wants to cut Obamacare and let insurance companies cancel your health insurance because you are sick. Why would people want the rapist and lying crook back?

Tell that to the voters of Michigan. You don't like losing, do you? Rapist. Liar. Crook. Ban abortion. Cut taxes for billionaires and corporations. Try to steal elections. Pick a Veep who thinks abused women should stay with their creepy husbands and make babies. What part of that record of shame and disgust do you think Michigan voters will vote for? Ugh! Trump is an old raping lying crook. Michigan women score big, poised for key leadership in Legislature More women gain, retain leadership positions in Michigan after Tuesday election Michigan is one of 10 states that elected a female governor this year Abortion issue likely drove women turnout, lawmakers say That is what Michigan voters give a rat's ass about. Not your gross old lying crook and his pathetic gross pussy grabbing hands. And Michigan voters don't like the MAGA filth that wanted to kidnap and kill their Governor.

U.S. Approval of Labor Unions at Highest Point Since 1965

Kelly will support pro-labor legislation amid VP speculation The Arizona senator's lack of support for the PRO Act had provoked the ire of some progressives and labor groups. This could not be better. First, it shows Kelly is under serious consideration. Second, they are checking all the boxes that need to be checked. One advantage of Kelly is that while he has formally not been vetted like a Veep before, he has run several tough Senate races. His personal background is amazing. It would be really remarkable if there was some skeleton in his closet that nobody had bothered to find before. With The Tough Guvs it is probably the same. But you never know. But this opens the way for saying 1,000,000 times that Donald Trump looks down on working people and lies to them, while he cuts taxes for billionaires and corporations. It's just that simple. Do you want a crook and rapist who lies to you and hurts your interests, or Kamala the Cop and a guy raised by cops who stand for unions and the rule of law? It's not really that hard a choice! I don't think it would be a bad idea for Democrats to get into a food fight with the media about what "working class" even means. These days it is defined as people without college degrees. But that in itself is condescending, both ways. Like if you are affluent because you built your own small business but did not go to college, you are like someone who is unskilled. And if it you have STEM skills you learned in college, and built your own business, you don't really work. If there is any institution that stands for the working class, and that Americans overwhelmingly support, it is the labor union. So I think Democrats should start a food fight about who supports labor unions, and who doesn't. Because that is who stands for the working class.

I'm just going to keep posting long and boring content that I find fascinating. Of the two new polls out that were taken only after the Harris candidacy emerged, Harris is +2 in Reuters and Trump is +1 in NPR. It will take weeks for this to stabilize. But the theory that Biden was a drag on the overall Democratic field seems to be initially proving to be true. The generic Congressional vote is R +0.5 so it may be that Harris ends up about where any Democrat that is not old and feeble looking would be. Meaning about tied as of now. So was Josh. This is Shapiro at a press event today. He would be great. I love it how he literally rolls up his sleeves. But I'm sold on Mark Kelly. I posted this essay already in the politics session. John Lawrence, who served for years as Nancy Pelosi's Chief of Staff, posted this on his blog. He has been close friends with Gabby Giffords and says he got close to Kelly in his astronaut days and has stayed close. It's a great argument. The Case for Kelly Finally, this YouTube link is to one of two podcasts Mark Halperin did today. I'm posting it because there is a really good conversation between former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and several others from 23:00 to 45:00 that is thoughtful to watch if you want to know how this can all go very bad for Democrats. Sometimes when I watch or read Gingrich I think, "Can he really be that far out there, or is he just saying this for Fox News listeners?" But this suggests he's really that far out there. He thinks this sets Democrats up for a Nixon-McGovern debacle. And that once Trump is done with the "San Francisco radical" middle America will decide, to quote, "She is not one of us." I don't think there was an explicit racial or gender reference even implied by that. But it oozes through, anyway. And it is a good question. What if Kansas (or Michigan) decides this San Francisco Democrat with the weird name is not one of us? Of course, I don't think Gingrich meant this, but you could also envision this is more like the post-Watergate version of Nixon. Where America decided the guy was a crook and had to go. Either way, listening to Gingrich scared the living shit out of me. And reinforced my feelings that a White guy like Kelly, whose parents were both cops and who exudes the idea of compromise with Republicans, would be a wise choice. Both to campaign and to govern. But Shapiro or Cooper or Beshear also all exude "rule of law" and reinforce the California "Kamala The Cop" version of Harris I think we will be learning about soon. God does this feel better than a week ago!

Quite honestly, I don't even think he uses hair product. If Harris picks him, you're going to have to be Andy's fashion consultant. (Can I call him Andy?) But nothing too fancy. It's Kentucky. Queer Cheap for the Straight Veep. Maybe an LGBTQ pin on the lapel? Just for a hint of color.

Although Trump has thrown down. It's on!

On The Bulwark yesterday they mentioned that if they pick the Senator from Arizona, Harris Kelly will sound very comforting. Like the kind of Wall Street guy you want managing your investments. 😉 That may hurt the chances of the Guv of Kentucky. I mean, he is a clean cut jock type. But Harris Beshear sounds like a barber shop. And this is getting worse by the minute. How the fuck do you propose to keep the word "Kamalaphemenom" out of the dictionary? I don't think even Mary Poppins and super whatever can help with that!

And whether he can remember the name of his wife.

Well, I have some good news and bad news. Good news. In a new NPR poll, almost every important pro-Harris constituency now says they are more likely to vote in November. This is the percentage that say they are more likely to vote with Harris as the nominee. Democrats: 48 % say they are more likely to vote Blacks: 50 % say they are more likely to vote Hispanics: 46 % say they are more likely to vote 18 to 29: 43 % say they are more likely to vote In each of those groups, in which Harris beats Trump by a wide margin, only 5 to 10 % say they are now less likely to vote. So this is great news. Harris is lighting a fire under Democratic turnout among the groups where Biden was bleeding the most. That said, on every party a little rain must fall. I think you are going to find it impossible to control the joy and fun about "Kamala" on TikTok. 😃

This is not Fox News. But this is my favorite Republican reaction video of the day. It answers the question: what happens when smart White guys make dumb White guy arguments? Some smart Republican consultant who used to work for Kevin McCarthy said on Halperin's podcast today that for the next few days Republicans should essentially let 1,000 shit bombs bloom, just to see what kind of shit might stick to Harris. Makes sense to me. So here is Tom Cotton, one of their best bomb throwers, making some of their shittiest arguments. I think it proves that Sean Spicer, who knows a bit about communicating MAGAthink to America, is right. These arguments about how Harris covered up what everybody knew about Biden's age, or she staged a coup, are just stupid and a waste of time. Although I love it when Republicans talk about coup. There is now a poll out that asks the question about Biden resigning. 68 % of voters, including most Democrats and 65 % of Independents, say Biden should "finish out his term as President". Even 47 % of Republicans say that. So this is a shit bomb they should stop throwing. Unless they want the "coup" and "conspiracy of silence" talk to boomerang on them. When did Donald Trump sexually abuse and commit fraud, and when did you guys know about it? This does confirm that "San Francisco liberal" and "border czar" and "pro-crime" and "cop killer" are where the attacks will go, from the smart White guys at least. The dumb old White guys with low mental acuity, like Trump, will go to racism and sexism and "dumb as bricks".

I think that may answer your question that you asked in another thread: I'll get to approval ratings in a minute. In terms of horse race polls, what has been really obvious but not necessarily explicable is that Biden has badly lagged every swing state Democrat running for Senate. So at some point it seemed like it really does have to be about Joe Biden. And it's not like down ballot candidates are not blamed for things like inflation or immigration. So the likely suspect was that it really was about Biden's age. You pointed to approval ratings. To repeat what I said in a different post, disapproval ratings may matter as much, or more. And while Trump has mostly been stuck at no less than 53 % average disapproval for the whole last four years (and before), Harris has been on a downward trajectory this year. In the last few months she has briefly fallen a tad lower than 50 % disapproval. So it makes sense in theory at least that she might have an advantage with voters who don't approve of her, but definitely disapprove of Trump. If there was an artificially low ceiling on Biden, maybe Harris has now lifted that burden off him. The RCP average now has Harris 1.7 points behind Trump. It's really way too early to tell what impact this has on national polls, let alone in battleground states. But the snap verdict is good for Harris. That 1.7 average includes a number of polls taken before Sunday. The one @EmmetK cited from Harris (the pollster) was done last Friday and Saturday, right after the RNC attacks on Harris and Biden but before Biden resigned. So if you only count the ones that were done at least in part after Biden resigned, I think you have Yahoo at a tie, Morning Consult and Quinnipiac at Trump +2, Reuters at Harris +2, NPR at Trump +1. So that is +0.6 Trump average over five polls. If you only count the two that were done fully after Biden's resignation, I think you get Reuters for Harris +2 and NPR for Trump +1. So Harris actually has the narrowest of leads. Basically, it is a new race and it appears to be tied in polls nationally. I keep wanting to mention that Lichtman says all these polls mean nothing. The exciting thing is that it's now virtually certain that the DNC will be a Chicago love fest that will be a vehicle for messaging what Harris and Democrats want to fight for. So based on his preview of his guess, Democrats are down 3 keys for certain and 2 more likely. 5 keys down predicts success for Harris and the incumbent party. Viewed differently, the three times when incumbent parties ran candidates that were not incumbents, but when the party was unified, that candidate won either two or three out of three times. Hoover won in 1928, Bush won in 1988, and Gore lost (or won) in 2000. That last is of course what Democrats should worry most about. The swing states, and the electoral college.