stevenkesslar

Could we just face facts, please? Everybody on the fucking planet hates Genocide World, and Genocide Man. They just fucking hate him. Read the polls. I mean, Master Xi will keep that tight vice he has on your monster's old useless testicles. And pull the chain attached to it once in a while to show who is boss. Master Xi and Modi will buy cheap shit from Genocide World, for sure. But does it make sense to anyone that the thing that makes Russia's economy great now is that dead Russians are the fuel to economic growth? The US has chips and AI. China has electric cars. Genocide World has killing Russians and sadism. So nobody wants to live in Genocide World, or be ruled by Genocide Man. Certainly Americans don't favor your sadistic monster. That's not a reason Trump will win. Please don't be confused about that. People all over the world will be happy when Genocide World collapses of its own moral, political, and economic dead weight. Almost half of global strategists think Russia could become a failed state within the next 10 years Those are the experts, who talk about why the rot and decay will cause Genocide World to collapse, just like the Soviet Union did. But what poll have you not read? This is not a toss up. People all over the world despise Genocide World and Genocide Man. Most Americans view Russia as an enemy. As long as Russia's economy is about killing Russians, democracy is stronger and safer. And Russia is literally cannibalizing its own corrupt and rotten nation. That said, beyond doubt, if Trump wins it is a huge strategic win for Genocide Man, even if most Americans despise him. The decades Genocide Man spent cultivating a relationship with a greedy narcissist like Trump will have paid off again, like in 2016. America will be disgraced. Which is one reason I think Trump won't win.

This is another one we just won't know until the votes are cast. I do think this involves three dimensional political chess,though. I cited above the Republican pollster Greg Strimple who works for the Cook Political Report who said the following. If you want to watch it yourself, this is from 21:00 to 23:00 in that link. Undecided voters are NOT totally undecided. If they voted for the economy, they have decided they would prefer Trump. The problem is that they do think Trump is unhinged. If they vote based on Trump being unhinged, they will vote against Trump. So he argued Harris lost October and made a "massive strategic error" because she started to focus on the economy instead. which is playing into Trump's hands. Strimple argued she should have continued her lines of attack from the debate: that people want an end to Trump's "insanity". Objectively, it is hard to argue with the fact that she won the debate. And that when she changed the topic to her "opportunity economy" the race got closer and she stalled. The flip side is Halperin just had another focus group where everyone said they are tired of hearing this fascism stuff. STFU, Harris. That was their take. Who's right? Maybe both. It is not either/or. I am just repeating my other post. Perceptions of her on the economy have gotten better. There are polls that women think she will be better for the economy than Trump. That said, I personally believe Strimple is correct - or, more pointedly, his polls are correct. That if the thing this election is decided on is the economy, Trump will win. There are just too many people, including Democrats, who feel too sour about the economy. That said, there are polls that say voters are more likely to vote for a candidate who will raise taxes on the rich and spend it on child tax credits for the working class. Here's a 3D chess project for you. Go to your toilet, take a long shit, put the feces in your mouth, and swallow it. And savor and ingest it slowly. Don't be grossed out. Spend a long time eating it. I want you to have a real good taste of what shit tastes like. My point is that if I had to explain why Harris keeps saying something that everyone agrees they don't want to hear, it could be because nobody likes eating shit. But that doesn't mean it doesn't have an impact. One theory is that "unhinged menace" fires up her base. People who believe this is a base strategy tend to think that Harris knows she is losing. So "firing up the base" is really a strategy to lose narrowly, and not take everyone else down with her. The alternative theory is that all these fence sitters who don't want to hear "fascist" still have to hear it, anyway. They may not like hearing it at all, because they are undecided. Why would anyone undecided want to hear, implicitly, "How could you even consider voting for an unhinged fascist?" Will it get them to hold their nose and vote for Harris? Or more likely, just not vote for Trump? I dunno. Check back with me in a few weeks. Another thing being said is that the few remaining undecided voters are tuned out, and hard to reach. And apart from undecided voters, there is this other group of tuned out people, like young men, who usually don't even vote. But might vote for Trump. If you read websites about politics and know anything about child tax credits, like me, you have no fucking clue what moves these voters. Definitely not websites about politics, or the nuances of economic policy. So it does make sense to me that what gets through to these maybe maybe not voters, if anything, is, "The guy is unhinged. He is a hot mess. Don't do it." There is definitely a reason she is doing it, just like Biden did. And Biden did argue, correctly, that everyone who said he was wrong in 2022 was wrong.

I love them, too. Tim is a little over the top. But he's Gay. So whadaya gonna do? The one I like the most there is Charlie Sykes. Very thoughtful, and very down to earth. And he reeks of integrity. At best, what we see happening here has been labelled "the new centrism". I think it is true that people are just sick of this shit. And they want to meet in the middle and move beyond it. In some theoretical world, Trump actually would be the perfect agent for a "new centrism". There was a period of time between Nov. 2016 and Jan.2017 when a lot of liberals were worried about that. That Trump, who wrote checks to Harris as a candidate years ago and was kind of a right of center Democrat, would move to the center and build a lasting moderate Republican coalition. By Jan. 2017 I think we knew this guy was a narcissistic dolt, and it was gonna be "American carnage". And that was Trump on a good day By Jan. 2021 we had the Jubilant Patriotic Cop Beating. If there is a new centrism, it will not be about picking up flag poles and really just showing how much we love cops and the rule of law by smashing their fucking heads open. And do not be confused. It is the fucking cops' fault. This way as a day of love, which they fucked up by carrying guns. And being rude to patriots who just wanted to break their bones. So that is just a no go. If there is a new centrism, these folks like Sykes and Longwell will help build it. Arguably, there already are. Funny you mention that. The last few days are the first time I have started to doubt Halperin's judgment about this election. And I have a reason why. In the last few days in one of his podcasts he went after John Meacham. John Meacham! Meacham was on Morning Joe going after Trump and fascism and Jan. 6th and protecting democracy. And he was doing it in a very guarded and almost vague Meacham sort of way. Meacham would never say, "He's a fascist." So Halperin couldn't say "Meacham is a hot head." Halperin just played the tape of Meacham being Meacham. And then talked about how maybe this was an example of these anti-Trump people just not getting it, and saying all this apocalyptic bullshit that turns people off. Meacham is no leftist. He is about as centrist as it gets. I'd argue a bit right of center. He has impeccable pedigree when it comes to standards, and values, and being pro-American. So what this particular comparison just made obvious to me is that Halperin really is a deeply cynical man. I think for him it all is a circus. So really, at the end of the day, these lines Meacham is trying to draw about what is fundamentally wrong about Trump don't really matter. He's just another politician. Just like Hitler. Just like Stalin. It's just inflammatory to say Trump or Hitler or Stalin are somehow different. They are just politicians in the circus. Maybe a bit more out there. That's all. If I am at all right, it would suggest that Halperin is missing something. We'll know better after the votes are cast. But the counterpoint is definitely all those folks at The Bulwark. I'll hold up Sykes and Longwell as ones saying, "No." Trump is not just another politician. He is a threat to everything we cherish.

If I had to bet everything I own, or my life, I would bet it on Kamala Harris right now. It's not a crazy bet, for sure. Even though deranged Republicans are demonstrating how detached they are from reality, by being sure of a Trump victory. Except for guys like Karl Rove, who knows a few things about reality and winning. He just spent two hours explaining to Mark Halperin why he doesn't have a clue who will win. Harris is leading in the polls. Lichtman, who is always right, says she will win. She is clearly not an unhinged lying despicable felon. And that's just what Mitch McConnell, Liz Cheney, and his own Cabinet Secretaries say about Trump. Why isn't moral worm Mike Johnson denouncing Mitch McConnell for telling a tiny bit of the truth, in private? I would make the bet because I don't think a majority of Americans want the America you outlined above. In fact, even if Trump does win, I don't think the majority of Americans will want the sick, disgraced America they will get. We have seen this movie before, in 2017. Yes, it will be far worse. But it will have a beginning, and an end. For that reason, this might be a good time to recognize there are two reasons Trump might win. Despite the fact that he is an unhinged freak who is clearly getting more deranged every time he opens his lying law breaking mouth. The first and most important reason is simple: inflation. This has happened with leaders all over the world. At least in what I would call "Western" nations. Anyone who presided over COVID + inflation has been turned into toast. Trump was actually the first big example of that, in 2020. I am as certain as one can be that had there been no COVID he would have won in 2020. Merkel lost her mojo. So has Macron, while he is still holding on. Pretty boy Trudeau has lost his touch, and will soon be gone. The leaders who seemed to weather the storm best and remained popular were AMLO and Modi. Why that was so could be an interesting thread in itself. Final thing I'll say on that is AMLO hopefully set the model: step aside, like Biden. AMLO had to for constitutional reasons in Mexico. Let a woman take your place, and win. Rinse, wash, repeat. The Progressive Moment Is Over Four reasons their era has come to an end. That also deserves a thread in itself. I'm a huge fan of Teixeira. From his days of The Emerging Democratic Majority, to his break with left wing college graduates he grew to despise. I think that article probably is symbolic of an important turning point. Democrats have now gotten the memo that some of the shit we have said and done is just deeply unpopular. If Harris loses, it will in part be because she got the memo too late. And she has refused to discuss the memo in public, which probably was not a great decision. (See Clinton, Bill, Sister Souljah moment.) My bet is in the end Harris will win a plurality or majority in the swing states. Forced to choose between Democrats who went too far, and an unhinged felon who has never had political, moral, or legal limits, they'll take the Democrat. We'll see. Either way, right now - when we are absolutely scared shitless - is a very good time to read and reflect on Teixeira. If Harris wins, we are still going to have to adjust and move to the middle. Because a President Harris won't have a winning mandate, or even a legislative majority. If she loses, it will NOT force Democrats - particularly progressives, which I call myself - to swallow some bitter pills. It means the pills will be shoved rudely up our asses, whether we like it or not, by Trump's victory. That essay is fantastic. I will simply cut and paste Teixeira's four main points, all of which are reasons Trump could win: Like I said, Teixeira deserves a thread of his own. Each of these points is debatable, or arguably even wrong. Trump presided over one of the worst spikes in murder and illegal guns in US history. Biden and Harris, who embodies the ideal of law and order and has all her life, brought murder rates back down form the bloody, ugly, violent, and sick America the lying felon left them. Oh, and he left Harris cops with lots of broken bones. Talk about social and political disorder that voters hate! So, again, I could debate every one of these points. But if Harris loses, you can sum it up in two words: Pennsylvania, and fracking. So we basically have two choices, maybe. We may have some bitter pills shoved up our asses with a Trump victory, and have no choice. If Harris wins and we do have a choice, I'll opt for swallowing the pills voluntarily. That said, I have hope. Paul Wellstone. I keep going back to him, and will all my life. I bought Teixeira's landmark book when I was at an event in Minnesota at Carleton to honor Wellstone after he died in a plane crash. The Iraq War was raging. We didn't know yet that W. and Cheney would win despite that, in 2004. No one could see Barack Obama coming. The only comforting thing is that I was surrounded by progressive friends who, like me, were mentored my Paul. Including my best friend from college. He ran Paul's Senate campaigns and started Camp Wellstone after Paul died. Just to show how these lives and movements connect and can not be stopped, there was another crazy teacher who knew shit about politics and talked way too fast who showed up at Camp Wellstone one day. His name is Tim Walz. Gun control used to be an even better Democrat slayer than the four issues Teixeira flagged above. Go tell hunters who live in the Iron Range who vote Democratic you're for gun control. Wellstone avoided that one. Well, Tim Walz likes to hunt. So Democrats can and will figure it out. But only if we try. And I hope we don't have to lose to be motivated to do that.

Okay, I will. Trump is a Jew killer admirer. His own generals keep saying it, along with the fact that he is a fascist and a threat to American security. The self congratulation about an election Trump has not won, and which is actually as close to tied as you can get, speaks to Trump reality. Which is to say, reality is any lie the fascist wannabe wants it to be. And the cult that likes the authoritarian liar just falls in line. That is what is driving this mistaken cultish theology that Trump won already in 2024, just like he won in 2020. You folks are happy to believe your own bullshit. It was the same with Hitler. You still haven't explained why you support a Jew killer admirer. Please do.

Lichtman is the first to admit he gets butterflies in his stomach every time. He is never smug about his own fallability. Genocide Man and his cruel mass murder of men, women, and children in Ukraine will actually be an important factor. We know that Trump is on the side of Genocide Man, and he is willing to throw NATO under the bus. He's made that clear. Harris will fight for international norms, and a coalition against genocide and thuggish authoritarian rule. Lots of Republican women will vote for Harris because they are disgusted by Putin's genocide of women and children. This translates directly into one of Lichtman's foreign policy/was keys, which he says will help Harris win. In effect, Harris will win because so many Americans who would happily vote for a Republican will vote for Harris. Like Liz Cheney. Precisely because Genocide Man is a monster who eats women and children, and they feel this beast has to be stopped.

Why won't you tell us why you back a Jew killer admirer? Trump lost in 2020. Lichtman was right in 2020, and every other time So I have the facts on my side. You're the one backing the Jew killer admirer and loser. I

I don't trust you. You admire a Jew killer admirer. Why? It's sick. Even McConnell calls your Jew killer admirer is despicable. I'd much rather believe Fox News. Polls show voters have more favorable view of Harris than Trump Why do you not get that most Americans don't have a favorable view of your Jew killer admirer?

Glad to know you and Trump have being liars in common. Trump tried to change the subject today, too. He had to lie and deny what Kelly said. Just like he has to lie and deny what Pence said, what Esper said, what Milley said, what Bolton said. Trump is all about lying and denying what his own hand picked leaders say. Why? Because of course he can't admit he's a fascist wannabe loser. Because it's why he'll lose again. Why does Trump admire a sick fascist leader who killed 6 million Jews and Gays? Maybe because Hitler didn't have to lie and deny like Trump. He could just be the openly murderous fascist leader who called Jews vermin and slaughtered them, and Gays too. You'd think Trump would denounce Hitler, just like cops denounce Trump. Please explain why Trump admires fascists who slaughter Jews and Gays. Why do you support a leader who admires a Jew killer?

Trump has always had the backs of cops. And their skulls. And arms. And legs. Whatever is easiest to break. TRUMP IS LOVE Police officers injured during Jan. 6th Capitol attack denounce Trump as anti-law enforcement TRUMP IS THE LAW Police officers injured during Jan. 6th Capitol attack denounce Trump as anti-law enforcement TRUMP IS GOD Police officers

Will we have a Holocaust, whether we like it or not? Why does Trump admire a guy who killed millions of Jews and Gays? Although, given that Trump wants generals like Hitler's, you sure got the "whether you like it or not part" right.

Personally, I like Melania. I think you need to be more tolerant. I think you need to give her some time. As far as her Jew killer admiring husband goes, I think he's a loser, personally. People say he's despicable. People says he's a fascist. People say he's a threat to national security. But that's just Republican leaders and his Cabinet Secretaries and Chief of Staff talking. Trump always picks losers and liars, anyway.

It includes cops, too, right? I mean, how can you top the Jubilant Patriotic Cop Beating? Trump makes America love again! Love transcends even greatness. TRUMP = LOVE When Trump is President, every day will be A Day Of Love TRUMP IS GREATNESS! TRUMP IS LOVE TRUMP IS GOD!

What's the difference?

I think the interesting question is whether the lack of an endorsement helps Harris more than an endorsement? We know that billionaires killed these planned endorsements, Is it because plutocrats who own newspapers want more Trump tax cuts to billionaires? Or because they fear retribution by Trump, or wannabe dictator and Hitler admirer? Still wondering why Trump admires the guy who slaughtered millions of Jews and Gays. I guess that is something for cowardly billionaires to think about, though. It's a perfect example of why and how Trump is unhinged and dangerous, and a real threat to democracy. The only issue is the people who will think about it and read about it are probably against Trump, anyway. But who knows? If they just endorsed Harris, as expected, there would have been no news here. Now the news is that Trump really is a wannabe fascist, and a danger to democracy. Who knew?

Or it could be that Bezos is just scared shitless. All that stuff about locking anyone who opposes Trump up. Maybe this is the part of Jew killer Hitler's awfulness that wannabe Hitler Trump endorses and admires.

Why are billionaires who fascist wannabe and Hitler admirer Trump gave trillions in tax cuts to not endorsing Harris? Well, the question just answers itself, doesn't it? 😉 ME ME ME unhinged liar Trump was all about showering tax cuts on billionaires, himself, rich corporate donors, himself, rich conservative donors, and himself, before America fired the greedy lying loser in 2020. Billionaires Are $2.2 Trillion Richer Since 2017 Trump-GOP Tax Law Wow. What a coincidence! Jeff Bezos is number two on the list. He was a massive winner of ME ME ME liar Trump's massive hog feed to the wealthy. Along with all the billionaire donors who put ME ME ME Trump in power. Wonder who number one is? OMG!!!!! What a shocker!!!!!! If ME ME ME power hungry liar Trump cut taxes to help factory workers, why were there more paid factory jobs in America in January 2017 (12.4 million factory jobs), when the wannabe Jew killer took power, than in January 2021, when he was fired (12.2 million factory jobs). Losers: factory workers. Winners: Bezos, Musk, Jew killer admiring Trump. The tax cuts didn't help the factory workers our Jew killer admirer Trump likes to say he is for. But they sure did help Jeff Bezos. Who stopped the paper he owned from endorsing Harris. Just like another billionaire who fed at Trump's fat cat tax cut hog feed: The rich owners of The Washington Post and L.A. Times just capitulated to Trump Amazon's Jeff Bezos and NantHealth's Patrick Soon-Shiong are an argument against billionaires buying newspapers. Several other members of the LA board resigned because their billionaire, tax cut slobbering owner stopped them from speaking out against Jew killer endorsing Trump. Like the Jew killing process Trump apparently admires, sometimes good people can be silenced. Let's see, Amazon saved $1.56 billion in 2018 and $1.86 billion in 2019. Wonder how much Jeff Bezos plowed into his paper, to hire reporters who answer the question: why does fascist wannabe Trump admire Jew killers and mass murderers,anyway? I'm guessing Bezos just looked after himself. What it proves, if anything, is that ME ME ME Trump's tax cuts to billionaires, and the wannabe dictator's drive for power they pay for in return, is what Trump is all about. And it does corrupt and silence billionaires who grew richer from Trump's tax cuts. Even as factory workers who were supposed to benefit lost their jobs. And speaking of endorsements, why is Trump endorsing Hitler and Stalin? What part of killing six million Jews is the part that Jew Killer admirer Trump thinks was doing a good thing? Or is he saying mass murderer Stalin was better? Poor Putin. He sure is no Stalin. But at least Trump panders to him, and wants Putin to win. Hitler vs. Stalin: Who Killed More? What a sick liar! No wonder McConnell calls Trump a despicable human being, and Kelly calls him a fascist. While the slobbering billionaires who Trump gave fortunes to join Mike Johnson in being silent, cowardly moral worms.

I have done this riff several times, so here I go again. I recall very well when Trump was POTUS, and my brother who is a moderate Democrat and I were talking. The context is this is when Trump is doing his daily press conferences. And talking about anal bleaching or lung bleaching or whatever while Fauci is grimacing. But my brother would go off about stuff I won't repeat, verbatim. It involved how somebody with a gun needed to do something. I was a little shocked, and more than a little amused. This is the brother I would call a Bloomberg Democrat. Or a Pritzker Democrat, since he lives in Illinois. Definitely not a Bernie Bros. Definitely somebody who likes being closer to the center than an extreme. So we'll see. But I know for certain my moderate brothers have been radicalized by this asshole. The polls tells us that for every person who adores Trump, or can even just tolerate him, there is at least one person who despises him. Or even wants to see him[ ................................]. As you said: turnout, turnout, turnout! [................................] No, that is not a death threat. I was referring to people who want to see Melania getting Trump off.

Well, I guess I don't see it quite that way. This issue requires bringing in the big guns. I'm going to have to consult with Cher on this one. I'll get back to you and let you know what she says, Sis.

Kamala Harris just said that, citing General Kelly. Why didn't McConnell and Johnson call Harris out for that? Maybe because they agree with General Kelly and her? At least McConnell and Johnson now want to publicly talk about why Trump is a despicable leader who should lose, which usually they only say in private.

Johnson, McConnell ask Harris to ‘stop escalating the threat environment’ after Trump fascist remarks Their statement does not mention the former president’s recent rhetoric, in which he’s referred to Harris as a “fascist,” “marxist,” “communist” and “comrade.” McConnell and Johnson are now perpetually proving themselves to be moral worms. They will defend any lie Trump tells. Johnson defended and obfuscated around Trump's violent rhetoric about locking Schiff and Pelosi up. And aiming the US military at the American public - at least the part that does not line up behind Trump, a fascist wannabe. In McConnell's case, you can explain this away because he may be senile, and he is definitely weak. We already know in private that he says Trump is a despicable human being, who threw democracy under the bus with his violent Jubilant Patriotic Cop beating. What is Johnson's excuse for being a moral worm, who should not be House Speaker? Because he dares not speak the truth. You don't have to read past the subheader to know that if McConnell and Johnson were not moral worms, they would have been calling out Trump for being despicable and inflammatory every time he opens his lying mouth. It's not just Harris he called a Marxist. He called Pelosi a Marxist. He called Schiff a Marxist. So if that is "escalating the threat environment", they should be calling out Trump for being despicable, like McConnell says in private, every time the despicable liar opens his lying unhinged mouth in public. But the real issue here is why is General Kelly, Trump's Chief of Staff, calling out Trump as a fascist? And why aren't McConnell and Johnson calling out General Kelly, who said it? For that matter, why aren't they calling out Mike Pence, who has some backbone and would not throw democracy under the bus? Why aren't they calling out Trump's Defense Secretary, who says Trump is a security threat? Or all these generals like Milley who also have been willing to call out Trump for being the despicable leader he is? Is warning the US public what we now call "escalating the threat environment"? Or is that just speaking the truth to the American people, which moral worms like Johnson and McConnell dare not speak? And, by the way, if we want to lower the threat environment, can we please talk about the kind of gun that almost killed Trump, which most voters want to see banned? Or when it comes to actually reducing violence, can we only talk about thoughts and prayers? What losers! What hypocrites! What moral worms! Of course Trump deserves to live. And he deserves to lose. This is why.

Funny. I was just reading an article and thinking of doing another post. And I thought, "Nah .............too much." But you just gave me the perfect reason to quote the guy I was going to quote, Jonathon Martin in a new Politico article. Martin is a smart guy. And he is basically wetting the bed and saying Harris is blowing it. He is not alone. I think he is being illogical. Read that quote three times. Because if you tweek the simple ideas and put them together differently, here is what you get: "A majority of Americans in two previous elections did not think Donald Trump had the character and fitness to serve. So why would we litigate whether Donald Trump has the character and fitness to serve?" Duh! The question answers itself. Because THAT is exactly why voters turn against him. He does not have the character and fitness to serve. What more evidence is required that hammering on his lack of character is what makes him lose? He is unfit to serve. That is the message that wins. This is your point, Sis. This is exactly what Harris and her surrogates and allies of democracy like Gen. Kelly should be hammering away at. And they are. Thank God. I don't have access to the internal polls of these campaigns. But we all have access to people like Plouffe, and Axelrod, and Rove, and a myriad of other R and D pollsters. And I think what they are saying is that undecided voters will elect Trump if they are thinking about the economy and high prices when they vote. They will elect Harris if they are thinking about how Trump is unhinged and his former Chief of Staff just reminded us he is a fascist who gets a hard on for Adolph Hitler and other dictators. That's a pretty simple and clear idea about what might turn undecided voters off. To cloud this a little bit, let's play it another way. Yesterday, in addition to Liz Cheney, Harris blasted Trump for not being willing to support a higher minimum wage, even though he wants to parade around at McDonalds. Minimum wage is a very popular liberal idea. Yet we had not one but two pundits on Halperin's 2Way yesterday saying Harris screwed up. And she needs to have one simple and clear message of the day. So she should STFU about minimum wage, and just focus on her message that lots of Republicans like Cheney think Trump is a menace to democracy. My point is no matter what Harris does, some pundit is going to say she is blowing it. The only thing Lichtman would add is that these pollsters and pundits all give themselves way too much credit. Yes, Susie Wiles may think that putting Trump on camera at McDonalds will make people forget about how he wants to be a dictator, in his own words. And how he wants to arrest Nancy Pelosi and maybe finish the job on her husband, in his own words. And how Mike Johnson lies like a cock sucking little whore to pretend that Donald Trump didn't mean what he obviously meant. Lichtman basically says, "Bullshit. Fuck y'all, y'all. The American people ain't that stupid. When the votes are cast and counted, they will figure it out. They always do." One thing surprised me today. Harris polls, which is Mark Penn, says maybe 4 % of voters are undecided, based on the things I outlined above. Something like that number seems to be thrown around a lot. Yet HarrisX is a different poll and pollster. They just argued today up to 12 % of voters are undecided. So maybe there are shades of undecided. Whatever the number is, I'm now persuaded based on everything I hear that Harris has to be the prosecutor making the closing argument that Trump does not have the character and fitness to serve. That is why he lost every other time. That is why he will lose again. And to tie up one loose end, let's be clear about 2016. It's the one and only time Trump did win the electoral college, or do well enough in an election. Every other time - 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023 - Trump or his horrible MAGA ideas or his surrogates - lost. But in 2016 Hillary did not and could not make the argument that this guy has been POTUS, and he is an unhinged menace. She made the argument that this guy grabs pussies, and says bad things about overweight girls. That was necessary, but not sufficient. I think in retrospect what mattered more in 2016 was that the Democratic Party was still divided between Clinton and Sanders. And not unified around the idea that stopping Trump is the only thing that matters. In 2024 there is much more unity around the idea that stopping Trump is the only thing that matters. This is not 2016.

I thought this was an interesting update. Not so much on Lichtman, but on Democratic Party bed wetting. Cuomo is a reporter, not a politician. But we all know who his Dad was, and his brother is. So he probably is as good a voice as any for the bed wetting Democratic establishment. This shit show interview genuinely surprised me. Cuomo interviews Lichtman a lot. If I had to name one reporter who seems like he actually understands Lichtman's theory, whether that theory is right or wrong, it would be Cuomo. And in this interview Cuomo basically bungles everything. It seems obvious to me that this is just raw fear. Cuomo is hearing all the bed wetting worries about early voting this and "Trump at McDonalds" that and wetting the bed. And in the process he really sounds jumbled and ignorant about why Lichtman has consistently been right, and what his keys actually mean. As Lichtman says, you can make any prediction you want. But if you are going to use my prediction system, which has been right every time, you have to use it based on my definitions. Cuomo is just throwing spaghetti at the wall because he is worried. Lichtman's point remains the same. All this poll bullshit and photo op bullshit like "Trump at McDonalds" is not what people vote on. He says Harris has it in the bag, based on factors that are far more fundamental, like the economy. And there are polls that now say on the economy Harris is trusted more than Trump, especially by women. So Lichtman has never been wrong, and he does not sound crazy. Or like he is wetting the bed. Even if I assume he was wrong, once, in 2000, he was literally wrong by under 1000 votes in one state, Florida. He still argues Black votes were undercounted, and Gore actually won. Even if you dismiss that, the worst you can say is Lichtman was off by under 1000 votes in one state. I think we all know that if this comes down to less than 1000 votes in Pennsylvania, this is going to be a fucking nightmare. May the best lawyer win. And even on that score, I would rather have a tough prosecutor like Harris than Al Gore fighting for me, any day of the week. I watched a fun interview with David Axelrod and Karl Rove yesterday. These two guys are the wizards who got two Presidents elected four times over a period of 16 years. So if anyone knows something about Presidential elections, it is these two. They agree that it is a dead heat, and every one of seven states is up for grabs. While they don't say it quite this cleanly, they also seem to agree with the core message of some of the most pragmatic pollsters I have cited in other posts. If undecided voters break on the economy, and are focused on higher prices when they vote, Trump will probably win. If they are focused on why Trump is unhinged, and is not worthy of being in power again, Trump will probably lose. We just don't know which way undecided voters will go. But I think Lichtman makes sense. He thinks if you understand US history, and what really matters to most people, you can see where this is going. I sure hope he is right again.

Harris on Kelly reports: Trump ‘wants unchecked power’ John Kelly, Donald Trump’s longest-serving chief of staff, told The New York Times the former president is “certainly an authoritarian” who “falls into the general definition of fascist.” It's encouraging that every time the sick fascist wannabe says sick and violent stuff, revealing what a prick he really is, there is an equal or stronger force that stands for American values that opposes Trump. So Trump's thug statements about throwing Pelosi and Schiff in jail and further pissing on democracy and the rule of law brought out General Kelly, who knows full well that Trump is a wannabe Friend of Adolph. Of course the sick lying fuck now has to disown Kelly and lie more. He has to argue we should not believe what we hear from conservatives like his former Veep, his former Defense Secretary, his former Chief of Staff, his former National Security Adviser. All of whom say this guy has dictatorial values, and he does not uphold democratic standards of the rule of law. This is exactly why the sick lying ME ME ME dictator wannabe is going to lose.

Quizas, quizas, quizas!