stevenkesslar

I don't disagree with anything you said, as far as it goes. I don't think you understood either of my points about a reality check. First, tens of millions did vote for Kamala Harris as Vice President. They did not vote for Mike Johnson, or Nancy Pelosi, or Porky Pig. They voted for Kamala Harris. They voted for her in the 2020 election. They voted for her in the 2024 primary. If Biden died of a heart attack yesterday, Kamala would be POTUS today. That is the Constitutional order of things. Everybody knows that. Clever Republicans who want Biden as Trump's opponent are already showing off both their cynicism and fear by saying Democrats are plotting a "coup attempt" against Biden. Talk about coups! These anti-democratic cynics should know. But they do have a point that if we have a Democratic primary and then somehow Gavin Newsom is the nominee, how was that actually democracy? So there is this basic idea that the Veep takes the place of the POTUS if he can't serve. That is why we have a Veep. It does give the process democratic legitimacy. It is more democratic than, say, Gerald Ford, who was never actually elected as either Veep or POTUS. A lot of Republicans are saying that if Biden steps aside as nominee, it also means he is not qualified to be POTUS for six more months. That's debatable. I think the real concern is whether he can serve four more years. But mostly based on Lichtman's ideas, which are all over the internet, if the goal is to beat Trump, and Biden is going to step aside as nominee, I think Kamala would have a better shot if she ran as POTUS, not Veep. Lichtman is saying, correctly I think, that having Kamala run as non-incumbent - especially if it requires a party fight to even get her nominated - is setting up 2016 all over again. He says Biden should resign and let Kamala take his place, and she'd then be a relative shoo-in as nominee. I think Lichtman is right. Nobody thinks a "coronation" is a good idea. But if Biden resigned and Kamala became POTUS and they vote on it as the DNC, it is likely that Harris would win overwhelmingly. That would show a united party, much like the Trump/MAGA party is united. Second reality check I think you missed, which is also a major talking point of anyone actually running national elections. There would be massive legal and financial problems for any person not named Joe Biden running for POTUS, unless that person is named Kamala Harris. That is mostly because of money and infrastructure that belongs to the Biden/Harris campaign. But, in theory, if Gavin Newsom were the nominee, Republicans could challenge even getting his name on state ballots. They are already threatening to do the same if Harris takes Biden's place. But they don't have a strong legal case to do so if the name is Harris. For both reasons, the reality check is that if Democrats want to beat Trump, and the whole things is about beating Trump, and in fact what actually matters most is beating Trump, there would be so many political, legal, and financial problems picking anyone other than Harris that it would probably just be better to let Biden limp to the finish line and lose. As far as your ability to diagnose dementia, I'm honestly a bit skeptical. That has been addressed before by someone else on the board with medical credentials, which i don't have. But I agree with your non-professional point, which is that the public overwhelmingly thinks Biden - AND TRUMP - are too old. And majorities of Americans want BOTH old men to step aside.

Jesus ordered Jan. 6th to save democracy. Jesus saved Trump from an assassin's bullet to make America great again. If you don't understand that, Sis, you just ain't American. Thankfully, you're not Merrick Garland or some communist Biden appointee. So you don't have to worry about Jesus throwing your ass in jail come January. But I'm sure Jesus would have a good reason to do so, anyway.

Well, I think we did learn something this week. Trump looks best when he keeps his mouth shut and raises his fist after being shot. When he talks for an hour and a half, not so much. Truth, of course, never stood a chance for a single minute. But I give Trump credit. He did unity for something like a full 20 minutes, before he wandered off into his typical hate and lies.

Well, we know she has a thing for Jewish guys, anyway. Doug isn't even First Gentleman yet, and he is already a class act.

I like Klo. She filled Paul Wellstone's seat. And he was my political mentor. So she always has a warm spot in my heart. A Bidenesque story, meaning an old war story that makes me sound old. At the time Wellstone won his US Senate seat, in 1990, Minnesota was seen as a solid red state, with two Republican Senators who had served for over a decade. A top Reagan White House political operative who was a lobbyist for GE Capital who I was working with on a $1 billion Community Home Buyers Program at the time told me this: "Your friend (Paul) has no chance. (Incumbent Senator) Boschwitz has great constituent services. No one can touch him." Professor Paul, and my best best friend from college who ran his campaign, touched Rudy. They beat him with the kind of fiery populist working class campaign that helped turn the tide of Reaganomics and helped make Minnesota a blue state. It worked in 1990. That is what Democrats need to do in 2024. And it is eminently doable. Speaking of which, from today's news: That's rich coming from Team MAGA. At least they know what they are talking about when they talk about coups! But on the topic of coups, we will have to have a reality check about how you toss Biden away, after he won the Democratic primary overwhelmingly. The thing Kamala Harris has going for her is that people voted for her as the one who would take Biden's place if needed - twice. Once in 2020, in the general election, and again in the 2024 primary. That's a philosophical point. If we didn't elect Kamala to take Biden's place, why did we vote for her? The much more pragmatic point is there are only two people who can legally run the vast financial and human infrastructure called the Biden/Harris campaign: Joe Biden, or Kamala Harris. Harris does not have a campaign team around her, so she would start at a deficit. But Klo, or anyone else, would start at a massively bigger deficit when we talk about what it takes to win a campaign - money, and a huge GOTV infrastructure.

Of course we can. (Well, not @EmmetK, of course.) And we can also agree defeating Trump has to be based on reality. Michelle Obama has said repeatedly for years she has absolutely no interest in running for POTUS. The other reality, as a pollster I cited on another thread wrote, is that these polls that test a horse race between Trump and anyone other than Biden are going to underestimate (name someone else who is much less well known until they actually are well known). Polls about Trump versus Humpy Dumpty, Little Red Riding Hood, Peter Pan, Goldilocks, and Mary Poppins aren't really based in reality. Granted, Harris, Newsom, Whitmer, Beshear, and Pritzker are real people, not fairy tales. But I'm pretty sure Humpty Dumpty has far better name recognition than the Governor of Kentucky. I'm also pretty sure that poll you cited tests name recognition more than anything else. I'm genuinely curious how many voters who know "Biden" do not know "Harris". I would bet money there are a lot of Americans who know who Michelle Obama is, but have no idea who Kamala Harris is. When you get down to Beshear or Pritzker, that's just a given. The more interesting question that is worthy of debate is, "Can't we all agree that at this moment, in July 2024, a month before the DNC, the only person who can defeat Trump, other than Joe Biden, is Kamala Harris?"

@lookin, your wish is Kamala's command. When I spoke with Kamala several days ago, I was actually shocked that she does not follow this website! Nor has she heard of noteworthy and wise internet poster @lookin. Thankfully, for that matter, she hadn't heard of @EmmetK, either. Anyhoo, when I brought your idea to Kamala's attention, she immediately said, "This @lookin guy is smart! I'm on it!" And so it goes. Don't be surprised if she checks in with you about being her Veep, by the way. 😉 The attack on Project 2025 starts a few minutes in. This was Kamala filling in for Biden, who is out with COVID. I assume she knows everyone is watching her every word right now, and this could be seen as a rough draft of her speech accepting the Democratic nomination for POTUS. Here is my favorite part, regarding the extreme and anti-democratic parts of Project 2025, bought and paid for by the right-wing billionaire class who paid for Trump and his billionaire tax cuts in 2016 and beyond: Well said, Kamala! I'm still confused about how billionaire tax cuts, cutting Obamacare, cutting child tax credits that helped tens of millions of working class parents and cut child poverty in half, and threatening to be a dictator are good for the working class - of any race! Seems like we need to go into way more detail about all the nasty anti-middle class and anti-working class nonsense in Project 2025. To be fair, this is way way way beyond the fact tolerance of our racist idiot @EmmetK, who thinks Kamala is a Black Asian American female DEI dolt. So here is a low information comprehension question for you, @EmmetK,since understanding Project 2025 is clearly above your pay grade. How many times did Kamala cackle in her speech? A. Five times. B. Fifty times. C. Five million times. D. Not once. P.S. I am a bit concerned for @EmmetK's mental acuity and mental health, given the toxic reaction he and so many MAGA types have to actual facts. Kamala said it best herself, when I guess she was supposed to be cackling like the stupid Black woman @EmmetK thinks she is: Good news for Democrats that Kamala can call out Trump's hate and lies with a smile, warmth, and exuberance. Bad news for MAGA types who prefer testosterone to facts.

Biden Will Drop Out Of 2024 Race, Will Not Endorse VP Kamala Harris Halperin was driven into exile by Me Too, appropriately. But now he is back. And apparently his sources are still good. I like this a lot. I don't think a Kamala coronation makes any sense. I think it's better for her to win the nomination the way Biden himself did in 2020: without Obama's blessing. That said, I think it is pretty clear Kamala will win the nomination. And drive a huge spike in enthusiasm and relief among the Democratic base. It does completely reset the race. Who knows what the impact will be? But, if true, there is now only one smelly disgusting lying felon in the race who can't keep his hands off women's pussies. Whether it is raping them or taking their rights away. And that disgusting old lying felon is named Donald Trump. Donald Trump is a disgusting old lying raping felon. Donald Trump should step aside immediately! America deserves better than having a disgusting old lying raping felon running for POTUS. A majority of Americans want disgusting old lying raping felon Donald Trump to step aside! @EmmetK, 57 % of Americans want your disgusting old lying raping felon to step aside. That includes the majority of Independents. They want the lying raping felon gone. Will Donald Trump listen to Americans and withdraw from the race tonight, like the majority of Americans want?

What did facts do to you? Did they beat you? Did they throw you down the stairs? Why do facts make you feel terror? The reason we know the election will be a Trump landslide is obvious. A brand new Ipsos polls shows a tie between Trump and Harris: 44/44. Is that how we know Trump will win in a landslide? Which do you hate more, @EmmetK? Facts, or Kamala Harris? I just looked on 538 and in the last week or so I see five national polls that show Harris and Trump in head to heads. They range from Kamala tied, which is the Ipsos poll above, to Kamala behind 5 points. If I average them out she is 2 to 3 points behind Trump in polls right now. About the same as Biden and Trump. Fun fact: in 2016, Trump was about the same number of points behind Hillary in July. Who won the election? Or is that a fact you don't care about, @EmmetK? You only like culty facts. The idea that Trump always wins and is always right is a culty fact, correct? What's also interesting is that, especially in state polls, there have to be a lot of people who don't know who Kamala Harris is. Jill Biden once told a story about how one of her college students saw a picture of her with Michelle Obama, and wondered how she knew the First Lady. The student had no idea that she was the wife of the Vice President. So I suspect that in some of these polls people have no idea who Kamala Harris is, or what they think about her. A new state poll of Pennsylvania is a good example. It shows Trump leading Biden by four (49/45), and Trump leading Harris by seven (47/40). Well, that's because Kamala cackles, right? No. That's because racist idiots like @EmmetK love to kick the shit out of an articulate Black women as a DEI candidate, somehow thinking that will help win "the Black vote". Even though Kamala has won every race - DA, AG, Senator - she actually contested. How dumb is that of @EmmetK? Even Trump is not THAT stupid or racist. No wonder this guy hates facts. For anyone who is tolerant of facts, here is what the actual pollster says: I specifically mention Pennsylvania because of the three Rust Belt states Biden or Harris MUST win, Biden polls furthest behind in PA right now. So what we know based on this poll is that in a race of two knowns, Trump/Biden, this poll says Trump can get up to 49 %. In a race with a lesser known, Harris, Trump gets up to 47 %. In other words, we really have no idea what happens if and when Kamala is the nominee, and the focus of intense national scrutiny. But one thing we do know, for sure, is idiots like @EmmetK won't be able to resist saying dumb and racist things about Black women that will drive Blacks to Kamala. One other thing we know for sure. The Pennsylvania Senate race is not even close. Democrat Casey is clobbering Republican McCormick by six points, way more than Trump is clobbering Biden or Kamala in national polls. So it is one of an almost universal set of data points that shows one person is a drag on the generic Democratic ticket: Joe Biden. Baldwin is up 5 in WI, Slotkin is up 5 in MI, Gallego is up 3 in AZ, Rosen is up 5 in NV, Brown is up 5 in OH. Tester, who was leading in every poll months ago, is now down 1.5 %. So it makes it very clear that there is something specific about Joe Biden that makes him run worse than almost every other Democrat. And now we have heard why with our own ears. I don't think seeing is believing, in this case. Most Americans agree both Trump and Biden look too old. The issue is hearing. Something has changed in Biden in the last year. That seems clear. You can listen to his speeches given in 2022, when Democrats crushed the red wave, and hear the difference. That's Fall 2022. He seemed fine then. He does not sound the same today. Kamala, meanwhile, burns with passion when she speaks.

Pelosi told Biden: You’re dragging down Democrats Here's today's pop quiz for politics junkies. In her entire career, how many life and death political fights has Nancy Pelosi actually lost? Excuse me. Oh. The Divine Miss Graham has something she'd like to say.

I agree with you. The only thing I'll add is that the Presidential candidates have the megaphone. This actually worked well in 2020 and 2022. Biden led the message that Trump is a threat to democracy. The message was echoed and augmented by lots and lots of winning Democratic candidates. Talking about all the specific threats to democracy - and the working class - in hundreds of pages of authoritarian crap written by (name lots of former Trump White House and department employees) is exactly the right message.

It seems now almost impossible for Biden to stay in the race. There was some recent poll Harry Enten was blabbing about on CNN a few weeks ago showing a majority of Democrats want Biden to stay in the race. Biden certainly used that to argue this was just about elitists picking on him, not regular Democrats. But there are now multiple polls, one Ipsos and one the AP/NORC poll above, showing 2 in 3 Democrats want Biden out. You can't win an election when two-thirds of your own party would prefer not to vote for you! Schumer apparently told him he should drop out this weekend, according to ABC. Pelosi seems to be kind of saying, "President Biden is dropping out of the race, and he needs to decide when he is going to decide that." Politics is a team sport. And if your team is increasingly making it clear they are no longer is with you, there's not much Biden can do. By the way, 51 % of Independents want Trump to drop out, too. If Biden does drop out, that becomes an immediate problem for Trump.

Thankfully, the cult has some taste and manners. I would almost have guessed the NRA would be pushing souvenir AR-15s. With a free American flag and iconic photos of Trump after coming within a few inches of being assassinated by a gun that was way too easy to get. But why would we talk about gun control, anyway? President Biden renews call to ban AR-15 rifles after Trump assassination attempt

What's interesting right now is that if there is no Donald Trump, there is no Republican Party. On the other hand, if there is no Joe Biden, most Democrats would go, "Great. Then let's move on with it." In the short term, I guess that looks good for Trump. But rumor has it the guy is pushing 80. MAGA should enjoy having a cult leader while it lasts. Meanwhile, in the long term, Democrats are gradually making the transitions they need to. Pelosi is out. Jeffries is in. If Biden were to step aside, at least the polls indicate Harris would do just as well. The Democratic Party is not acting like a cult. That may actually be why Biden wins. Independents overwhelmingly feel Biden is too old, Trump is too old, and they want neither. It may be that in the end they say, "Let's take the one that is too old, but at least is not a whack job cult leader."

I'm actually kind of glad Trump picked Vance. We've been hearing about nascent Republican working class populism for years. Vance is one of the people associated with these vague ideas. So why not give it a whirl? It's an interesting concept. We don't have to question why Trump picked Mike Pence in 2016. Trump got a lot of evangelical votes. And he personally picked the SCOTUS justices who killed a woman's freedom to choose. I am sure Mike Pence even prayed for those judges. What Trump and Pence did is deeply unpopular. But absolutely no bullshit there. Trump is a master of bullshit. So it will be interesting to see how it works to pick someone like Vance, who stands for the bullshit idea that the heart and soul of MAGA is the working class. Example: Vance likes working people. So he is against the PRO Act, the #1 priority of labor unions. Vance likes working people, not "corporate pigs". So he runs with the guy who passed the biggest hog feed tax cut to billionaires and corporations ever, who wants to get elected so he can do it again. Huh? Seems like an extra large slice of bullshit to me. Just like Trump is now trying to disavow grabbing and fucking with the pussies of women in every state, either with his gross old hands or his right wing judges. But let them shit it all out in public and see if America wants to buy what looks, smells, and (ugh!) tastes like a big ass Trump/Vance turd. J.D. Vance on Elizabeth Warren, Steve Bannon and What’s Wrong With the GOP If you have any level of tolerance whatsoever for J.D. Vance's (so far) vague and ineffective ideas, that is a good read. I will say this. He offers two things Trump does not have, or want. One, Vance is clearly interested in policy. Trump is simply a venal political animal. I doubt Vance will win any policy fights with Trump, though. Two, Vance is actually interested in how to work Congress and get laws passed. Trump showed no interest in that in his first term. Infrastructure bill, anyone? That said, Trump did give Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell, and every billionaire and corporation who ever donated money to Republicans the deficit producing tax cuts they paid for. This could be at least a little interesting. That said, Vance's claim to political fame so far is a railroad safety bill he can't get passed. Because it is opposed by exactly the kind of monied corporate special interests that have bought and paid for most Republican Senators and House members. Meanwhile, Biden got an infrastructure bill, and a manufacturing bill, and a stimulus bill passed that all helped make America the leading economy in the world coming out of COVID. Vance talks about how he wants to do good stuff for the people left behind. Biden and Democrats passed a child tax credit that helped 50 million working class family members, and reduced child poverty in half. Until Republicans killed it. Because they don't have money for poor people, or Hispanic kids, or working class men in unions. But they do have money for billionaire and corporate tax cuts. Seems like the same old Republican bullshit to me. But it will be fun to watch Trump and Vance try to sell the same old turd as something fresh and new.

No. After carefully seeking medical advice, as well as consulting Mother, he apparently decided to abort his unchaste political party. Ironic, huh?

He tried. Republicans and the NRA stopped him.

That makes more sense. Trump no doubt thought it was a bullet. But it's hard to imagine if it struck his ear it would not have done more damage. Thank God the shooter missed. An assassination would have plunged us into true chaos. All the grown ups are denouncing political violence. Hopefully this cools down some of the violent rhetoric being used.

Okay. Let's have the facts. How many Russian criminals and ethnic minorities has Genocide Man processed into fertilizer? What did he have to pay their families to use them as human fertilizer for his genocide in Ukraine?

I will be voting for Biden and/or Harris. So as far as Russia goes, here is what I think my vote means. 1. Hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of Russians will need to be processed into fertilizer. The families of the criminals and ethnic minorities processed into fertilizer will have to be paid handsomely for providing bodies for Putin to process in the name of his genocide. 2. Young people will continue to flee the hell that is Genocide World, taking the future with them. 3. Putin will have to keep distorting Russia's economy away from the future, and back to the economy of World War I. Many Putin cronies will get rich destroying Russia's future. 4. All of this further cements the foundation of the breakup of the Russian Federation years or maybe decades from now. Democracy will do just fine. The Russian Federation won't. One wonders how much of the Federation Master Xi will end up owning? In a sense, all this does mean I will be voting for Putin. I hope he stays in power for a long time and continues to fuck up Russia and make it a place no one wants to visit, or live in. When he finally rots of his own old age (71 and counting) and weakness he will have proven that genocide doesn't pay. Nothing an aging Biden could do compares to how bad Putin has been for Russia.

On top of this genocidal bloodbath are a few clear facts. Putin and Trump are narcissistic liars. You can't believe a word they say. In Genocide World, it doesn't matter. If Genocide Man doesn't like you, or you disagree, he will kill you. If he wants your country, the solution is simple. Start a genocide. Kill hundreds of thousands of people FROM YOUR OWN COUNTRY and build a genocidal war economy that can only function when you kill hundreds of thousands of people FROM YOUR OWN COUNTRY. Genocide means never have to tell the truth, or say you are sorry. Trump does not have that luxury, and won't. Biden fucked up as badly as any candidate can in a debate. And America had a wake up moment where we mostly agree this guy just seems too old and can't be the leader of the free world for four more years. But neither can the narcissistic old pathological liar. So the polls haven't changed. And one new one Marist shows both Biden and Harris beating Trump. Several other new polls show Harris beating Trump. What will Genocide Man actually do in November 2024 when his loyal cock sucking gross old lying narcissist loses, and fucks up his plan to get away with genocide? One wonders how many more hundreds of thousands (millions?) of men FROM YOUR OWN COUNTRY Genocide Man will have to send off to be processed into fertilizer. Poor Vlad. This is why so many experts say in 10 years the Russian Federation will be toast. No one really likes genocide. Even if they have to pretend they do, since they have no choice. And since Genocide Man will kill you if you dissent. By turning hundreds of thousands of Russians into fertilizer, and building a war economy that gets some cronies of Genocide Man rich by promising to continuously turn criminals and Russian ethnic minorities into fertilizer. And you think the US is fucked up? This is why the best and brightest are fleeing to (name a place on the planet that is not the hellhole of Russia) and your genocide loving leadership is laying the groundwork for the breakup of the Russian Federation. Not the renewal of empire. Do the math. The US economy is ten times bigger than Russia. So If the US grows 3 % a year, Russia would have to grow 30 % a year to generate as much wealth. Sure, Genocide Man can distort the economy by building a clunky war machine that depends on mass murder of both Russians and Ukrainians. I just wouldn't count on that as a viable long term plan. Poor Genocide Man. What a sorry fucking evil loser. Trump and him deserve each other.

I think running Kamala would generate a ton of excitement. I think running her with Whitmer would be like Clinton/Gore in 1992 and Obama in 2008. It would symbolize hope and change. It would light a fire under people who are very turned off right now. That said, if it is Harris she might want to pick someone like Shapiro for the same reason Obama picked Biden: balance. Fun but boring fact. In 2008 Obama told Tim Kaine that his head was with Biden, but his heart wanted to pick Tim Kaine as Veep instead of Biden. In some alternative reality, you can argue that Kaine would have run and won in 2020, after Hillary lost in 2016. And he would now be running for a second term at a relatively young 66. Or you could also argue that Biden has had to endure more than his fair share of insults and condescension from Team Obama. Let's talk about Hillary and 2016. Lichtman predicted in Sept. 2016 that Trump would win. He argued that any generic Republican would beat the incumbent party, based on his Keys. He said, if anything, Trump would do a bit worse than a generic Republican. And he did, losing by 2 million votes and barely squeaking by in the electoral college. My guess is someone like John Kasich would have won much more decisively in 2016. So the point is Hillary was doomed. Not because she's a woman. But because the cards were dealt against her. The two specific things she could not control is that she was not the incumbent, and the party was torn in half. Lots of progressives either didn't vote or voted for Stein. Which is why she lost narrowly in three key states. If you buy Lichtman's model, 2024 is different. Lichtman is saying Biden has two of his 13 keys working against him: losing the midterms, and being uncharismatic. He'd have to lose four more. And in Lichtman's view there are only four in play: a military failure, a military success, social disorder, and the third party key. Biden would have to lose all four for Lichtman to predict defeat. And, again, Lichtman has been right 10 out of 10 times, in advance, since 1984. The one small blemish being he predicted Gore in 2000, who won the popular vote and lost the electoral college by a handful of votes in one state. So we can break that down. The issue about social chaos is the fear that we'd have protests about Genocide Joe and Gaza all Summer. Ain't happening. Lichtman turned that social chaos key against the incumbent party only three times in a century: 1932, 1968, 2020 (BLM/George Floyd). As far as the second key, Biden does not appear likely to have a military defeat (Lichtman already said Afghanistan doesn't count, and Ukraine and Israel are not defeats). So those two keys are unlikely to turn against Biden. Biden will not have a military success. And the third party key looks like a toss up. Right now the third party cabal gets about 12 % of the vote in the RCP average. Which is almost exactly the same as the third parties got in July 2016. By Nov. 2016 that was watered down to 5 %, which is Lichtman's threshold for a serious third party challenge that signals deep discontent with the incumbent party. So it's questionable whether that key will turn against Democrats. Especially if Kamala is the nominee, a lot of progressives that would vote for Stein or West will likely flip to Kamala, who they will view as far better than Trump. But let's just assume any Democrat loses both of these keys. That's a total of four against any Democrat: 1) losing the midterms, 2) no charismatic candidate, 3) no military success, 4) serious third party challenge. Lichtman's point now is that if Democrats trash their incumbent and invite a divisive party brawl, that takes away both keys that are their margin of victory, in his prediction system. It could essentially replay 2016, he fears. His Plan B is for Biden to resign, let Harris run as President Harris, and get the party unified behind her as the consensus candidate. Who, by the way, was the candidate Democratic Party primary voters chose to replace Biden if needed. She is the only candidate not named Biden that Democratic Party primary voters chose overwhelmingly. Lichtman has not predicted a divisive party brawl if Biden steps aside. He basically seems to be saying that if Democrats want to fuck it up, this is how history suggests you could fuck it up and hand the election to Trump. Have a huge party food fight. But I don't think 2024 is 2016. We did not have a bitter primary fight between Clinton and Sanders. Quite the opposite. Biden and Harris sailed through easily. The party is very unified around that idea that the horrific piece of shit named Donald Trump can not be returned to power. The question no one has the answer to right now is this: will Biden step aside? I think the chances have grown from maybe 5 % right after the debate to maybe 50 % now. Even most Democrats want something different, it seems. Independents sure do. My guess is if Biden listens to what party leaders are saying and steps aside, the party will unite around Harris quickly and with little dissent from top leaders. In this scenario it would be better if Biden resigned, I think. But that is likely a bridge too far. So my count is that Harris, running as the non-incumbent candidate, would have five keys against her. Which Lichtman says would predict a Harris victory. The sixth key that would be the decisive nail in her coffin would be if the party tears itself apart in choosing her. I just don't think that is going to happen. Everyone realizes the stakes are too high. And all these keys make common sense. Seeing Harris debating Trump would be a breath of fresh air. Yes, this is a real crisis. But what it would show, in practice, is that Democrats are capable of dealing with a crisis in their own party by putting forward someone we can all get behind who inspires hope and new ideas. Bottom line, Lichtman would argue Obama did not win because he is Black. And Hillary did not lose because she is a woman. If my scoring is right, Harris would win. But not because she is a Black woman.

In a word, YES.

Oddly, some version of that may be happening. I watched a Pod Save America interview of Jen Psaki yesterday in which she said Biden has never shone in press conferences or interviews. Put him around people and let him empathize and be Joe. Psaki says that is what he is good at, and what people love about him. I would not say the debate highlighted Biden's sympathetic kindness. It highlighted his decline and confusion. Regardless, his opponent's madness and lies shone through brilliantly. It is now clear it did not change the national polls at all. Biden was a few points behind, and is still a few points behind. The latest poll on RCP, Marist, shows Biden beating Trump by two points. People apparently can walk and chew gum at the same time. They can be shocked at Biden, and still think Trump is a nasty gross old liar who they don't trust or want to return to power. Also oddly, some version of democracy may be happening. What is happening on the Republican side is proof of theory that Trump draws in people who like authoritarian leaders. They have completely circled the wagons around their pathological liar. That's not working on the Democratic side. This is proof of theory that democracy is messy. That said, it is not a disorganized mess. If Biden were two years younger, and everything else played out the same, he'd be cruising to victory. At least according to Lichtman. He did essentially cruise to victory in 2022. After the red wave was stopped, people didn't say Biden was old and crazy. They said he was wise, and got it right. What's happening now is a complicated but serious discussion about a reality most of America now believes: Biden's time is running out. It seems like America is looking at the situation with appropriate alarm, but also sympathetic kindness. And, one way of the other, there will be a resolution. Heads it's Biden. Tails it's Harris. Psaki, who knows something about effective communicating, says Kamala is an undervalued and fierce communicator. I think she is right. Tell me this woman would not be better than Biden in taking on her opponent's madness in a debate. Eloquent. She has both sympathetic kindness, and sting.

The thread is about how Trump lies. It is about Trump's lies and treachery sucking the cock of Genocide Man and betraying American values. It is about how Trump encourages Genocide Man to attack NATO and kill, while Trump the loser basks in Putin's praise. The thread is about how Trump and Putin are both sick human beings.