stevenkesslar

We agree, Sis. And to be clear, I am hardly saying we should be tolerant of Trump or the illegal and grifty and rapey and stupid and geocidal things he does that harm America and the world ............. on a good day. On a bad day he is just an evil horrible piece of shit who does deserve to burn in hell forever. You can never be too intolerant of evil pieces of shit like Trump. Melania, on the other. She'll just go buy shoes while the piece of shit burns in hell eternally.

The one thing that misses is that there is always a dialectic. How Marxist is that? In Germany's defense, Hitler rose after years of economic misery that, arguably, was imposed on it. While I think it is unfair to argue that China suffered when US capital shipped middle class factory jobs from us to them, that is where their grievance about being held down comes from. Oddly, I feel proud that US and Western capitalism were seeds that helped a whole massive nation like China pull itself out of poverty and hunger. Ask Mao and Deng about that. In the long run, I think the US and China may find they have more in common than divides us. I hope at least. It actually could be that the new MAD is not nuclear bombs. It's superintelligent AI agents that could run amok and kill us all, if we let them. But, back to the point, nothing happens in a vacuum. So I think the first part of that statement has to be added to what you said. People are feeling insecure. It would be too simplistic to say Biden in 2024 was "weak and right." But he looked weak. If inflation were zero and there were 2 million new factory jobs and homes were cheap, you could have embalmed Biden in a coffin and he would have won. 🫨 So I think it's the insecurity, stupid. Was Iowa racist for voting for Trump twice after voting for Obama twice? Or was it that Obama didn't fix their problems? Add to that raging cynicism that anybody in power gives a flying fuck about me. And, even if they do, they can't or won't do shit about it. Like I said already, that shocks me. Especially coming from nieces and nephews who are millionaires, from hard work, and way better off than their parents at the same age. But they will uniformly tick off 9/11, the global financial crisis, and - for the conservatives - all the heavy-handed government intrusion and lies that Fauci represents to them. Even though I deeply believe he was just trying to save lives - in this case of Republicans. It doesn't excuse the racism and scapegoating and xenophobia. But I do think rising right wing authoritarianism no longer looks like a bug. Democrats need to focus on what "strong and right" means. And part of the reason the D brand looks so shitty right now is that the party looks divided and weak. It's always possible that the solution won't happen in the two party system. But usually it is movements from outside that change the two party system. A socialist didn't win in 1932. But the movements and unions influenced what FDR did. Sanders is technically an Independent. If there really is a wave, one or two Independents could win in these farm states that used to elect farmer/labor Democrats. That would help. It would be good to have some Independents rooted in farms and labor insisting both parties need to change.

An important distinction there. Germany ended as a democracy around when Hitler came to power. Ten years in, we're not there. I was looking at polling data from Fall 2022 for a specific reason when I posted my long boring blog about midterm polling. I was curious about July and August 2022. That is when Pelosi did her Jan. 6th hearings. And, as accused, it was a rigged show. The only Republicans on the committee were hand-picked anti-Trumpers. Pelosi was not going for balance. She was going for guilt and shame. I agree with her. And, arguably, it worked. At least it did not hurt. The 2022 polls show Republicans were leading the generic polling by 2- 4 % all year. In the late Summer and Fall, after the hearings, it was more like a tie. Maybe those hearings helped, at the margin, by arguing what Trump did on Jan. 6th is intolerable. But in the last month the latent anti-incumbent midterm thing came back, albeit more as a trickle than a wave. My point is I think Pelosi set the bar. She consistently called Trump out and made HIM the issue. That said, Trump said at one point that when he saw Harris campaigning with Liz Cheney (about democracy) he knew he would win. And he did. Democracy? Too abstract. Let's talk about Bidenflation. Let's talk about rent. Let's talk about Biden's new Forever War. No tax on tips was crumbs from billionaires getting the real tax cuts. But Trump and Susie Wiles knew what they were doing: prices, the border, the war. I will go to the grave thinking that if Harris had been more like Elizabeth Warren - we will both have broken teeth and blood if you even think about taking those child tax credits away and throwing all these millions of kids back into poverty - she might have been able to win. People care more about that then her house in Malibu. I've read that some of Trump's advisers think if Bernie had been nominated in 2016 he would have won. That is NOT the conventional wisdom, for sure. But it would have been right wing authoritarian populism v. left wing economic populism. Michelle "When They Go Low We Go High" Obama kind of changed her mind about tolerance. And so did I. In 2016 AFTER Trump won I recall being in Puerto Vallarta with a Republican client and friend I knew for about 15 years. Some people we were sitting by at a cafe told us their kids would no longer talk to them, because they voted for Trump. My Republican client and I both said that's horrible. I acquired TDS in Fall 2018. For me, it was the Kavanaugh thing that put me over the edge. That episode did it for lots of people, on both sides. And, objectively, I would be the first to argue Ford had a very weak legal case. I think for me it was just the way that they trampled all over her. Of course, Miss Graham felt Democrats did the same. That was when I cut ties with Republican clients and friends. And I'm not proud of it, really. But where I've drawn the line is family. My point is we've been on a ten year or so test, so far. If you count Trump coming down the escalators as the start. I do think Trump is symptom, not cause. I happily voted for Obama in 2012 and was delighted he won. But the action is always in the reaction. I do think it was Obama winning twice, and specifically Romney's loss in 2012 that set Republicans going in a different direction. Much like Biden and Harris losing helped push democratic socialism along. Nature abhors a vacuum. Trump and his authoritarian populism and authoritarian hate filled it. There is Civil War in America. And a similar thing is happening at least all over the West. Like the AfD in Germany. And while some of them may be neo-Nazis or horrible people, a common denominator every time is working class people with legitimate economic grievances that the established order - including 8 years of Obama - did not begin to solve. Mexico, meanwhile, is more unified than ever around a democratic socialist/economic populist regime committed to helping the working class and the poor. Can we please be Mexico? Por favor? Do we really want or need a Civil War like the last one? Robert Pape, who has been spot on on how Iran is a disaster for the US, says this is an age of political violence that is having global implications. Duh! He sees demographic change (race), economic inequality, and political exclusion or cynicism as key drivers, among other things. He thinks the solution is to try to slow it down and find ways to build bridges to solve problems, rather than just throw fuel on the fire. The Sadism Clown is all about feeding the fire, hoping his side can win. Or, like Hitler, just crush dissent. Trump would go so much further, if only he could. But I agree with Pape. I do think the challenge is: how do we become a more tolerant society? The Wellstone way in 1990 and the Bernie way in the last decade is unify people from the bottom up and the middle out, around shared economic grievances. Biden, who was really just playing the role, didn't do so bad. But for inflation and age, he would have won again. Having Trump as POTUS and having ICE shoot people in the head and deporting millions of people who work hard and make America a better place while we start wars we can't win that drive up prices ............................. Well, let's just say that is NOT the way to build tolerance. So for me it is a tug of war. And I sometimes adjust my limits. But I meant what I said. I do think most of the people I disagree with are kind, and loving, and trying to be tolerant. I do think, as Michael Lewis argued, where we are now does not "rhyme" with the way most Americans are. Part of my thing with the Sadism Clown is I do feel deep rage. I think he does put Judaism to shame. I think he does put religion to shame. I think he does put America to shame. He is full of hate and bigotry and toxic ideas. And he loves letting us know it. The Sadism Clown is not what makes America great. The Sadism Clown is what makes America hate. I am not for tolerating the hate and bigotry he has advocated for years. Rant over. For now.

LOL. I got new shoes, too. Still, I am washed up and tragic. I just wish I was as pretty and kind as you, Sis.

Thank you. I will enjoy it. That's why I got a new suit. It breathes. And hopefully it doesn't rain. It's hurricane season. The Gen X thing is interesting. The theory I read long ago is that they grew up under sunny Reagan optimism and conservatism. And for them, it worked. As an objective fact, we can trace the loss of millions of factory jobs in the US to the Bush era, 2001 to 2008. That was way after Reagan. In fact, Reagan was the original "Joe Sixpack" (beer, not abs) Republican who lured working class factory Democrats to his side. I think most people in my family, including ones who despise Trump now, would say that the Reagan era was good for White middle class suburban America. So it makes sense to me, as a theory, that an optimistic conservatism could be baked into their genes. Then again, in my extended family, there are two sisters who are both Gen X and absolute political opposites. Which is partly why they are not very close. And, you are right. Bill Clinton has been described as "Reagan Lite" by critics. So some would argue Reaganomics and growing class inequality has been the reigning government philosophy at least until Trump. It's all they know. Obama would disagree. He wanted to replace Reaganomics. He did not really succeed. But Obamacare was a start. The Fourth Turning theory paints a very different picture of Gen X. These were the latchkey left behind kids. They were on their own. They were the first generation, sort of, who grew up with working Moms. Ironically, my Mom worked when I was a kid. I was the youngest child, so I recall in high school I came home to an empty home. But my sister was mostly a stay at home Mom for her two daughters. My nephew, the Romney traditional conservative type, literally told me a story once - unprompted by any of my words or theories - about how he'd come home from school and both his parents would be at work. And he'd cook himself dinner. I think he said that even happened in grade school. How or whether that evolved into a "we're on our own" philosophy is not clear to me. But if we just go by Fourth Turning archetypes, Gen Xer's are the left behind, forgotten, "we're on our own" generation. And Millennials are the more communitarian "we're in this together" generation that found their own political coming of age with Obama. That all kind of fits in my extended family. I personally think of Trump as the Gen X President. Even though he is not personally Gen X. Vance is Millennial. Harris is late Boomer. So far, Gen X actually is the "skipped over" generation. At least in Presidential politics. Neil Howe, the Fourth Turning guy, argues that if a Gen Xer becomes President it would likely be a Dwight Eisenhower kind of conservatism. Ike was himself a member of the so-called Lost Generation. The Gen X nephew I refer to, who I am very close to despite his conservatism, would fit the archetype perfectly. He'd be more the Massachusetts Romney who wanted Romneycare and wanted child tax credits to eliminate poverty than the Trump grift guy who wanted only tax cuts for the rich. If I really wanted to test the limits, I would ask him: how is it possible you are on the board of your state's food bank, and yet you can vote for a President who is cutting SNAP and making your challenge far worse? I think he probably knows more about SNAP than I do. And he might say, "I would rather have Romney. But you voted for Obama in 2012. So blame the reaction of the Republican Party on yourself!" In fact, among many possible futures (if we survive AGI, that is) one scenario I could see happening is something like that. Ike was the first Republican after 20 years of New Deal Presidencies. We're not there. We're split 50/50. But I would not be shocked if we elected some democratic socialist adjacent type, somewhere between Bernie and Biden. And then after that we got some older Gen Xer like Ike who was more pragmatic and (right of) centrist. If I compare that to the option of an ascendant right wing authoritarian majority, which the Sadism Clown would love, it would not be a bad outcome from my perspective. And Ike was President NATO and President Alliance. That does not fit with Trump's Republican Party at all. Which, as I made very clear, is disappointing. For the record, this nephew and his wife call themselves Independent, although I suspect they mostly vote R. The thing he epitomizes that almost all my nieces and nephews share is this deep cynicism about government. Doesn't matter whether they are liberal or conservative. Government is useless. All we got is 9/11 and the global financial crisis. It seems very self-pitying to me. They are almost all doing better than their parents, economically. But it is very much a sign of the times. MAGA guy Rich Baris' new book about Zoomers is called "Burn It Down: What The Polls Says Young Americans Really Want" for a reason. The other dirty little secret I see is that while the 1 % may be doing incredibly well, if it is a K shaped economy that suggests the top half are doing better than okay. I'd argue it's the top 20 %, or maybe the top third, that are mostly doing better than ever. And that's partly what is stopping the revolution Bernie wants. A lot of upper middle class suburban people are, so far, just that: upper middle class. I'm curious how or if these archetypes fit with Gen Xers or Millennials or Zoomers in your families, if anyone wants to talk about it.

Yes, and no. I'd add a word: tolerance. Now I'll add more rant. If by "this rant" you mean this post, I should add this. I've always had a lot of nieces and nephews, and I have always been somewhat close to them. I say somewhat because for many years I was the cool Gay uncle jet setting around. And sometimes I took some of them with, to places like Italy or Paris or Hawaii. But for about 5 years it's been a project to spend more time with them and, now, their kids. It's the "uncle" equivalent of my siblings who want to spend time with their grandkids. One of whom is about to get married. So all these comments about politics fall into the context of family. And, yes, I can rant and say things here about my nephew's wife dumb anti-vaccine nonsense that I would never say in person. This specific brother and his kids and grandkids are pretty much the most Republican and MAGA or MAGA-adjacent extended family members, and live in a Southern red state. So for me it's more about tolerance than disappointment. Even though some things are disappointing. On the disappointment side, I had a long talk with my oldest brother last week who no one else really talks to much. And it was kind of sad and kind of funny. I think he voted for Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020, and maybe Trump in 2024. Like another Republican brother I am much closer to, he really only has bad things to say about Trump himself: narcissistic, megalomaniac. So this is a typical Republican thing I hear a lot: we don't like the man, but we like his policies. It's fair enough. You could say Bill Clinton was a predator, but we liked his policies. Right now the polls say there is a huge chunk of Americans who voted for "No More Forever Wars" Trump in 2024 who are now running away from Trump as fast as they can. Because of Iran. But this brother is the opposite. He hates Trump, but he loves his Iran war. He'd be happy if Trump nuked them. And some part of it is the "all Muslims are evil" thing. I stressed that Gay men have no love for extremist theocrats who hang Gay men in the streets. But "Nukes R Us" doesn't strike me as good policy. Polls show clearly the world is turning against America. Quickly. With cause. This echoes in his son and a niece, both conservatives. There's a line that sums it up: "They all want to kill us." One niece, who is far and away the most ignorant Fox News/Gutfeld type, and who can't name the Republican House Speaker, said that. She was talking about foreigners. She speaks Spanish, and like me she loves Mexico. But her husband won't go there any more because it is ,,,,,,, well, Mexican. My response was, "They don't want to kill us. They want to BE us." Which is objectively true, I think. Way more people come to America as immigrants to build businesses and make us better than come here to fly airplanes into the World Trade Center. Include El Sayed and his Muslim parents on that list. Polls say public opinion is on my side. So I think it is just insane bullshit. We are literally committing national suicide. And the polls show it. But fast forward and at one point I asked my nephew, who has traveled all over the world as a consultant, what he thought while he was in front of this niece. And he said, "She's right. They want to kill us." So there is this strong America First thing going on. Which is essentially a rejection of the "Beat The Nazis/Build NATO/Democratic Capitalist World Order" my Dad and their grandfather, a WW2 veteran, helped build and strongly believed in. My own theory is its kind of generational. The Greatest Generation, my Dad, built that order. His kids, the Boomers, may have rebelled against VietNam or Iraq. But we liked and respected the world order. We know what The Cold War was like. We are all for defending Ukraine against Russia. This next generation, and especially the Gen X'ers like this niece and nephew, seem to care less about it. They take American power for granted, I think. Gen X'ers are the strongest pro-Trump cohort. And at least in my own extended family they seem to echo his xenophobia and "they're just out to screw us, if not kill us" bullshit. If it were up to Trump and Gen X'ers, America might actually nuke Iran. And say, "Fuck Canada, and the rest of the world." Needless to say, my much more sensible Canadian sister-in-law is horrified. As am I. So, yes. It is disappointing. Very disappointing. Back the the title of this thread, there is some part of me that just wants to say, "Shame on you!" All that said, this is also an exercise in tolerance. Like I said, my Dad was a Reagan loving conservative. So I grew up in an environment that tolerated and even celebrated different political views. My line has always been my Dad and I didn't have the same politics. But we had the same values. Which, of course, I got from him. And from Paul Wellstone and lots of liberal Jews I've worked with, lol. "Tolerance" is definitely the theme with these red state, MAGA or MAGA-adjacent family members. They have strong families. They are kind people. They embrace me as the Gay in the family. And I embrace them. I'll add that one of my other nieces married a Black man and has a "Black" son, or a son who looks Black. When I am visiting and we all go out to eat sometimes my nephew and his wife bring their Black friend from down the street. Who is a professional who obviously prefers to live in an affluent, mostly White, but integrated suburban Southern neighborhood. So when they say "skin color doesn't matter" they are not being dishonest. They do view a lot of Democratic orthodoxy as woke bullshit. And sometimes I agree. "Latinx" is woke bullshit, for example. Most Mexicans think it is silly. There's a line I really like from Michael Lewis, the author of the book The Big Short about the subprime lending fiasco. The film made of that book is one of my favorites. I squirmed in my seat because it so creatively captured all the greed and stupidity and pain of the Wall Street-built disaster. If something turned America on its head and made lots of people deeply cynical, THAT was what did it. Plus Iraq. So I would have guessed Michael Lewis had to be the biggest fucking cynic in the world. But he is the opposite. He's an optimist who likes people. And is curious about them. His line on Trump's America is that this will not last. Because "it doesn't rhyme with America," he said. He's a writer, so it was an interesting choice of words. But I believe he is right. I think the Sadism Clown really does want a Civil War. And he wants Trump to win it, and crush anyone who disagrees. I think, based on many things he's written, he would be happy putting kids in Gaza in a concentration camp. It has been described as an open air concentration camp, anyway. The Sadism Clown would be happy deporting millions and millions and millions of immigrants. Including Dreamers, who know no country but America. And love it. But I don't think most Americans are that way. Polls show that. Like about Dreamers. And when I go to a red state and spend time with these more conservative MAGA-adjacent people I am describing, that is not what is in their heart. They don't want to be bigots or haters. They are mostly tolerant, or trying to be. One niece, one of my sister's daughters, is the exception who I think proves the rule. She seems to go out of her way to be ignorant. Except for the most extreme and racist and xenophobic things she and her husband hear on the most extreme parts of Fox News. But, again, same old same old. Compared to when she was a child I babysat, a larger percentage of America is liberal, and fewer are conservatives. Her sister sent me a text photo last Fall of her and her daughter at a Kamala Harris rally. She was proud to bring her kid to her first political rally. She donates mostly to women candidates who focus on women's issues. So I think Michael Lewis is mostly right. I think most Americans want to be better than we are right now in Trump's America. And I hope the midterms will show that. We'll see.

Why, that's the kindest thing I have ever heard, Sis. 🙄 And, yes, my ego is obviously quite fragile. So one little wisp of hate or insult from the Sadism Clown (I like your name for him, too, Sis) and I practically have a nervous breakdown. Thank you. And love. And kindness. Those never wither with age. Most people would argue social media has not been kind to love and kindness. Or community. And yet, here we are, Sis. We've always had that special bond. And since we are focusing on my ego, if you don't mind I will go off. Of course, I always go off, anyway. I went to buy a suit last night, for a wedding next weekend in the South of my oldest nephew's oldest daughter. It was really fun. The guy I had helping me was - first of all - a human being, not a robot or AI. I am never sure what to expect these days. But he was a sweetheart. It was fun throwing fashion options around. Not that he gave me better fashion advice than YOU, Sis. But you are so hard to reach these days. What with all your time and saliva consuming public service with Zohran, and what not. It's been a long time since I bought a new suit. So I was thinking about that moment at the start of my escort career when I bought a suit at a fashionable store in Paris for the first time, and I felt like I had really arrived. And I was thinking I would have looked much hotter in this new Summer suit back then. But what I love about what I do have now is the celebration of love and family I am about to walk into. In my nonprofit decades, someone, as a joke, left a Chinese fortune cookie on my inbox that said, "In youth and beauty, wisdom is rare." Lucky me. Now I get to explore the second half of that fortune. What makes this wedding also fun in the context of my anti-MAGA ranting is that at least half the people I will be with, if not more, are hard core MAGA types. And I have spent enough time around them to know that I love them, and they love me. The bride's Mom does outdo RFK, Jr. when it comes to vaccine nonsense. In fact, her father-in-law, my Republican brother, at one point attacked her vaccine nonsense, because it offended him as a fact-based science guy. And I thought, "I'm a hit man. Not a diplomat. But this is where it is best to just keep my mouth shut." Which is what my nephew, a Romney Republican at heart, does a lot. The bride's grandmother made it clear to me at one point that she thinks most Democrats are haters. She is a widow. After spending a lot of time together, the go-to line now is, "If I weren't Gay, I would marry her." And she keeps saying, "Too bad he's Gay." We get along great. My point is I hope this will be the world after Trump. I did have a Reaganite Dad. So thanks to him more than anyone else loving and respecting people with political differences comes easy to me, I think. I do blame much of this on Trump. There is a certain political genius he has in knowing that you can only win by divide and conquer. So he stokes hate and lies and bullshit. And it worked for him. Barely. But twice. As @lookin has pointed out repeatedly and correctly, it only works because in times of dislocation and pain many people are authoritarian followers who want an authoritarian asshole like Trump. Guys like Sadism Clown eat it up. He's a very special and uncommon type. I think it empowers his natural cruelty. To say it in a theoretical way, the term used is "authoritarian aggression." It's one thing for the Sadism Clown to want to submit to Trump, or conservative (anti-LGBTQ) social norms. It's another to aggressively attack outsiders and minorities. Jews of course know this all too well. But it is why I think the Sadism Clown should be called out. The Genocide Jew actually is saying they killed tens of thousands of Palestinian kids because they had to. And, actually, blame it on Palestinians. Not us. That's authoritarian aggression for you. Causes way more real world tragedy than going after a 70 year old washed up hooker who isn't 70. I was not hurt, or offended. I was, and am, amused. I really just wanted to underscore the fact that this is the kind of guy who will attack you for being 70 - if I were. And for being a successful retired male escort. If my clients were like him, I would never have had the fun romp I did. Stated differently, I was very good at avoiding people like him. Who are actually rare, in my experience. They couldn't pay me to have sex with them. That said, despite his cruelty, I'm sure he is - or at least was - quite the looker.

Now this is a perfect illustration of the difference between me and my beloved and and always younger and more beautiful Sister In Cock. In her own words, she wants COCK. In my own words, I want DATA. It goes without saying who has better priorities. My bad! 🙃 I rewatched that Rich Baris video I posted above. He said something I didn't focus on in my first listen. First, both sides tend to cherry pick the polling data that fits best with what they hope will happen. Definitely true. Second, right now Republicans are saying that this is a typical late Summer lull. But Republicans think they will come roaring back like usual as the election draws near. Maybe they'll even keep the House! Baris said that is untrue, and wishful thinking. He said the usual trend is that the party out of power usually picks up more steam as the election gets closer. So, if anything, the current D +6.6 generic vote understates how well Democrats will do. So I wondered, is that actually true? Sorry, Sis. It's not COCK. I'm no Zohran. Just a washed up old hooker here. ☹️ But the data is interesting. My own conclusion is that the D +6.6 margin right now is likely to be about where we end, if history is a guide. If anything, the poll data right now might be more accurate than the final poll average. Particularly if the poll data suggests the Democratic wave just keeps building. Either way, with a lead this big, Democrats are likely to win some double digit number of House seats and take control of the House. But I'm sure the cruelty clown will be ready to bludgeon me for being an aging male escort if I am wrong. If I used AI I could do a fancy table. But what I will do to be extra boring is just go midterm by midterm back to 2002, using RCP polling data, and show 1) Sept. 13 poll average for generic Congressional vote, 2) final poll average, 3) actual results, 4) actual change in House seats. To summarize, I think the data is clear. The trend, and polling, is always right. The party out of power always wins since 2002. 2002 was the last year the party in power gained House seats, as polls showed they would. The polls reflect which party will win, almost 100 % accurately. And while not totally accurate, the size of the lead generally does reflect the size of the electoral victory for the out party. A bigger lead in generic polls means you actually win more House seats in the end. Baris is not necessarily right that Democrats should assume a wave will continue to grow between now and Election Day. Or that we should believe it, if it happens. 2022 Sept 13 polling average: D +0.5 Final polling average: R +2.5 Actual result: R + 2.8 Actual change: R + 9 House seat, House flips Note: This is the year Baris refers to specifically regarding a surge in the last few months. And he is right, as you can see. There was a Republican (outparty) surge. That said, most of the year the Republicans were maybe 2-4 points ahead in the generic polls. September 2022 was a brief respite where Democrats seemed to even the score. So I would argue that the basic yearlong trend prevailed, And the polling for most of 2022 reflected it. It was a modestly good year for the Republicans, the party out of power. 2018 Sept 13 polling average: D + 8.3 Final polling average: D + 7.3 Actual result: D + 8.4 Actual change: D + 41 seats, House flips Note: The main difference between now and and 2018, which has been discussed a lot, is that Democrats have a much weaker brand now than in 2018. I personally have no hope that Dems will pick up anything near 41 seats for this reason. 2014 Sept. 13 polling average: R + 3.9 Final polling: R +2.4 Actual result: R +5.7 Actual change: R + 13 seats Note: Again, Baris has a point. Especially if you look at the last two times Republicans were the outparty. In 2014 and 2022, they won the generic vote by a bit more than predicted. Neither were wave years. They gained 9 to 13 seats. Wave years are the ones that seem more likely to overstate the size of the wave. And even though in 2018 Democrats did a tad better than the generic polls suggested, that did not transfer to the US Senate, where Democrats lost seats in red states. Another reason NOT to assume we can sit back and wait for a Democratic wave. That said, if in 2026 Democrats have Senate pick ups in red states - like Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa - that would be a sign of a bigger shift. 2010 Sept. 13 polling average: R + 7.8 Final polling average: R + 9.4 Actual result: R +6.8 Actual change: R +63, Obama "shellacking", House flips 2006 Sept. 13 polling average: D +6.5 Final polling average: D + 11.5 Actual result: D + 7.9 Actual change: D + 31, House flips Note: In both 2006 and 2010, there was a wave election surge toward the party out of power between September and Election Day. So, again, Baris is kind of right that things could look even better for Democrats in a few months. That said, in both cases the actual result was less than the final polling average predicted. In both cases the actual result was closer to the Sept. polling. And, in both cases, it was still a huge wave for the party out of power that flipped control of the House. At a 6.6 % lead as of today, this looks the most like 2018, 2010, and 2006. If we use that as a base, the party out of power gained anywhere from 31 to 63 seats. 2002 Sept. 13 polling average: R + 2 Final polling average: R +1.7 Actual result: R +4.6 Actual change: R + 8 House seats Note: This is the last time, and one of the few times, the party in power won the midterms. The last time before that was 1998, when Democrats gained 5 seats. I'm not sure when the time before that was. Maybe 1934. I only checked to 1958. The reason I went that far back is this chart about Trust In US Government. There are only two times since 1958 that the party in power slightly expanded their House majority during midterms: 1998, and 2002. Not coincidentally, those are one of the few times trust in government exceeded 50 % (under W. after 9/11, briefly), or at least was rising toward 50 % (under Clinton, the bull market, the late 90s budget surplus). The Iraq War and financial crisis tore that to shit. And we ain't come close to recovering yet. So this time it is Democrats turn to win, it seems. But the basic problem - trust in government - basically gets worse. Trump promised to break the glass. And even the glass breaker can't be trusted. Other than to break promises, get richer, get meaner and stupider, and grift for his family. So there is no reason to think voters will reward Trump and his party for that. I'll throw this clip in as well, so the Sadism Clown has more targets to hate and attack if all this is wrong. The cruelty clown might describe Mark Halperin as a 61 year old washed up journalist and sexual predator. The cruelty clown might describe Charlie Cook as a washed up 72 year old political analyst. I'd simply call them two of the best students of US politics around.

Sorry to spoil it with the image on the left, Sis. I was unaware of Piker until his connection with El Sayed moved him front and center. My bad. I was also unaware of his physical transformation and decision to lose weight. Kudos to him. I've probably spent 15 minutes listening to anything Piker has to say. I've spent more than that reading what other people think about what he has to say. Like whether he is anti-Semitic or anti-American. So far, I get more impressed with him the more I learn. One way to summarize his message is, "Get smart about politics. And lose weight." Democrats do have a problem with young men. If guys like Piker and El Sayed who like lifting weights help address that, more weights! Maybe Zohran will even get the memo. As well hung as he is, according to you, he could beef up a little.

I can go on about this Lichtman stuff forever. I'm a political whore and a policy wonk. So here goes. I think it is very appropriate to discuss this right now. Trump is in huge trouble with American voters. And even though they are NOT designed to assess or predict midterm elections, I think Lichtman's Keys To The Presidency help explain why Trump and Republicans are in big trouble right now. I will. Thank you. In my own mind, it is fair and appropriate to point out that Sadism Clown is not here for a policy debate, or political thought. Calling me, incorrectly, a "70 year old" washed up hooker pretty much sums up what Sadism Clown is here for. Hate, and cruelty. But now back to our regularly scheduled political thought. The YouTube summary describes Rich Baris as a "MAGA pollster." Baris himself, in the interview, describes himself as pretty much as MAGA as MAGA can be. In this context, my point is Rich Baris is doing his best to be like Alan Lichtman. Who is a liberal Democratic Jew with a world famous election prediction system that failed in 2024, leaving big egg on Lichtman's face. They both want to understand what is happening in American politics. And how it impacts the world. I think you can put what Baris says here and Lichtman's Keys and 2024 together. And it helps create understanding about what people care about. Which is NOT what Sadism Clown wants. My point about Sadism Clown is he is NOT like MAGA pollster Rich Baris. Sadism Clown wants hate, not understanding. Sadism Clown understands if you can rile people up and divide them and get them to hate, you can maybe win 49 % of the vote or so. What Baris talks about can be expressed simply in one sentence, and two words: prices, and war. Baris thinks that is what is killing Trump, including with MAGA, right now. And, I think prices and war are what killed Biden and Harris in 2024. That's my take on what Lichtman got wrong. Trump, by the way, thinks the same. Trump says he won in 2024 because of prices, the border, and war. Trump, of course, promised to end the Ukraine War right after the 2024 election. And not start another loser America weakening Forever War. Oops! You can watch the Tim Baris video if you want. It's not earth shocking or anything new to people who followed how young male voters or some Latino voters or Joe Rogan moved toward Trump in 2024. And are now moving away from him fast. If Talarico wins in Texas - who I am proudly sending money to every month to help win - Baris nails why even a red state like Texas could flip. At least in 2026. Back to Lichtman. His Keys system is based on 13 Keys. He said in Fall 2024 that Harris had 8 in her favor. Had he taken two away, it would have been just like 2016. And he would have correctly predicted a narrow Trump win, like he did in 2016. That is a very short and sweet summary of Lichtman's 13 Keys. My own opinion is that two Keys, and Lichtman's biased interpretation of his own Keys, explain why he got 2024 wrong: short term economy, and war victory. Lichtman does not agree with me, for reasons I will go into later. I think Lichtman was wrong about the short term economy. And this gets very geeky. I was described in a book about successful national working class homeownership programs I helped start as a "26 year old self taught data geek whose college mentor was Paul Wellstone." Guilty as charged. Unlike Sadism Clown, that author got my age - at the time - and my intentions right. So this is the same. In 2024 I actually found and watched an interview from 1992 in which Lichtman explained why Clinton would beat Bush 41. Lichtman argued, correctly, that even though the recession was over, people felt like they were in a recession. Bill Clinton would agree. It's the economy, stupid. I watched that 1992 interview in 2024 because the contradiction bothered me. I think I may have said that in my long-winded posts in 2024. It's a detail. But in this case, a key one. Why does what Lichtman is saying in 2024 seem to contradict what he said in 1992? If it feels like a recession, it is a recession! Trump rode that in 2024. It's the Bidenflation, stupid. I think far and away the reason Trump won was prices, and Bidenflation. Trump has said the same, repeatedly. I think Lichtman proved that, as useful as his system is, it is subjective. And we all have biases. Ukraine is harder. I got around my own doubts about Lichtman in 2024 by saying Harris has 2 Keys in her favor. So even if he is wrong about the economy Key, she should still win. The other Key that is worthy of debate, especially now, is Key 13: "The White House party has major foreign policy success." Lichtman argued that Ukraine was a Biden victory, or at least would be in the long run. Was it? I think that is very shades of grey. Like many Americans, I was stunned and disgusted in early 2025 when Trump threw Ukraine under the bus. And Trump seemed to get down on his knees to suck Putin's cock. You can make all kinds of arguments about why he did that. Personally, it disgusted me. But I know even in my own family there is this "America First" thing that my Reaganite Dad would disapprove of, were he still alive. America SHOULD help promote democracy and help countries like Ukraine, my WW2 veteran Dad thought. He spent his life being proud that he, and America, beat the Nazis. Lots of MAGA people do not agree with my Reagan loving dead Dad. Including a few of his own beloved grandchildren. As it relates to 2024, there's a great argument that Ukraine was not a Biden/Harris foreign policy success. Take that and the economy away, and Harris should have lost. And she did. As it relates to 2026, the Iran fiasco has now settled the question, in my mind. Ukraine was a very divisive issue. Trump's win in 2024 did prove that many Americans are not on board with the idea that it is America's job to defend countries like Ukraine. Or even defend NATO. But now Trump is suffering from the very fires and divisions he stoked. Which is, again, what Sadism Clown loves. Fire. Hate. Division. Now Trump has to contend with the fact that millions of his own voters in 2024 feel he lied to them. He did not lower prices. He did not end a Forever War. He started a new one. Which America is losing. The world is quickly turning against America. That is what "MAGA pollster" Baris says in the interview above. Maybe he will be wrong, like Lichtman in 2024. We'll see. Either way, I am proud I sent money to Sherrod Brown in 2024, even if he lost. If he loses again in 2026, I'll be proud again. Since he ran both times, and he is a poster child for a pro-union and pro-working class Democrat, losing in 2024 and winning in 2026 in reddish Ohio would be a pretty good thumbnail about what changed. It's about the working class, stupid. I'll wind down by taking a dig at Lichtman. The one thing that really turned me off about Lichtman was his interpretation of why he was wrong. It would have been noble to eat some humble pie, and say we all have our biases. Instead he basically blamed it on stupid voters being misled. To me, it reinforced the stereotype that Democratic liberal (and often Jewish) academics will speak down to the working class and explain to them why they are stupid and wrong. I think Lichtman's Keys are very useful, and as valid as ever. Early in his career he did try to come up with some system to predict other races, and never came close. To me, it all proves that this is subjective stuff. Even what "recession" means is subjective, now more than ever. But Lichtman and Baris are on to what matters to voters, I think. It helps me understand why Trump barely won in 2024, with less than 50 % of the vote. And why he will get clobbered now, probably. If there is a lesson for guys like Paul Wellstone or Sherrod Brown or El Sayed who want to be US Senators to take away, it's simple: "It's the working class, stupid!" But the reason these guys tend to win is they got the memo. And, by the way, Sadism Clown is right. I do have a problem with Jews like Paul Wellstone, and his values. My problem is that more people, especially Sadism Clown, don't exhibit the warmth of heart and compassion for Americans - or immigrants - that Wellstone did. He spoke often about how HIS values were based on his immigrant Jewish ancestors who fled TO America. That is the America most Americans want. Not the America of cruel and hateful Donald Trump, and his Grift Family, which is the world his loyal Sadism Clown wants. Who we are: Who we were: And, no. We won't ever see Trump's face on Mount Rushmore.

Are Jewish children the only ones you don't want dead, Sadism Clown? Trump and Musk are killing kids all over the world by taking their HIV meds away, which were provided through USAID. Even sometimes Trump ass kisser Joe Rogan acts confused and almost sorry when Bono informs him of this. "Duh! How was I supposed to know?" But it seems to delight Sadism Clown. Sadism Clown relishes in the cruelty. How many more dead kids with HIV do you want, Sadism Clown? And I was wondering how many seconds it would take you to go to your favorite hate trope. If you're not for The Genocide Jew, and you're not for genocide, you hate Jews. You're a sad cruel Jew, aren't you, Sadism Clown? You're a disgrace to your religion. You are a disgrace to ALL religion, Sadism Clown. Saying it's wrong for Catholic priests to be pedophiles is not anti-Catholic. Saying it's wrong to embrace genocide and the Genocide Jew like you do is not anti-Jewish. Most American Jews don't support what the Genocide Jew is doing, of course. You're just a big old Jewish hater, ain't ya, Sadism Clown? You seem to love to hate. If religion stands for anything, it ought to stand for being against genocide. You're not, Sadism Clown. You are THE Genocide Jew lover. You love it and defend it when the Genocide Jew kills tens of thousands of kids, plus their Moms. How many more dead kids do you want, Sadism Clown? Why are you so proud of your sadism and cruelty? Is that what makes you a good Jew in your sad twisted mind?

Which proves Trump is right. Only a dangerous socialist like Carney would do something like that. But, actually, it's worse than that. For Canadians, I mean. @EmmetK, the Sadism Clown, is back for a reason. It's show time. Dumb Murder Dog @Barknaway pretty much can't do anything but bite and bark and kill and be stupid. But with the Sadism Clown you get words and thoughts and actual bad intentions. Well, bad if you are a socialist Canadian like Carney, at least. Sadism Clowns have a much bigger skill set than just killing some kid with HIV in Asia. Or blowing up some Mom in Gaza. The real plan which you don't know is that Trump will do two things if Republicans win: 1) make all real Americans millionaires, and 2) bring Eternal Peace - not just Peace In Iran - immediately after the Election. You have these pussy socialist Republicans saying that this will explode the deficit and we can't actually do that and whatever. @Barknaway is gonna take those so-called Republicans out. They're socialists, like Carney. Deport those fuckers to Canada and tax them. Every Canadian is going to have to pay a tax to make every American a millionaire. And it's fair, when you think about it. Trump gave Canada every reasonable chance and then some to be America's 51st and Greatest State. And the socialist idiots like Carney were too stupid to figure it out. So fuck 'em. Canada is gonna have to pay to make us rich, through taxes. Which socialists should like anyway, eh? And if you fuck with us we will nuke you. Another great civilization bites the fucking dust. Breaks my fucking heart! Now the question has come up, which "real Americans" get to be a millionaire? Well, ZERO socialists from Canada do. So it is none of their fucking business. Suffice it to say that if you look like this, you are NOT a real American. And you need to go back to the shit hole you came from. And if you don't know where your shit hole is, we'll send you to Canada and tax you. That's just how generous we are. America is always the greatest and the fairest. Which is why the world loves us.

How many more children you want killed in Gaza, Genocide Jew lover? We're at well over 20,000 kids, Sadism Clown. How many more dead children you want, Genocide Jew lover? You're FOR the Genocide Jew and these policies. This is what you WANT, Sadism Clown. Not funny. Not charming. How many more dead children do YOU want, Sadism Clown?

I didn't follow it until just now. And I'm glad I didn't. Every part of the story is just incredibly sad.

As always, your facts are wrong. But you are right about one thing, Sadism Clown. Despite all the death and destruction and hate spawned by your dumb ass loser Trump, you have no shame. Absolutely none. He's a complete fucking failure. Lots of MAGA has turned against him. Most of the world has turned against America. The half of America who rejected him twice was right. Twice. But you have no shame. You're as narcissistic as Trump. I assume you're still behind the Genocide Jew and his mass murder too, huh? Can't have enough dead Palestinian women, can you? Or dead kids in Africa or Asia who no longer get their HIV meds, thanks to Musk and Trump? And you wanna keep score about Allan Lichtman while Trump flails and fails? Shows what a smart Sadism Clown you are, and what your priorities are. How many kids in Gaza and Asia are you hoping die today, Sadism Clown? You're all about The Genocide Jew still, right?

So we will see whether Krystal Ball has a crystal ball. To repeat, I agree with her analysis. It's the stroke, stupid. If true, it's ironic. In 2022 Democrats wanted Fetterman despite what was a pretty obvious health problem. Much like Republicans want AWOL Mitch right now. Fast forward and now we don't want him. And, if Ball is right, it's because of his health problems. Time will tell.

This was really good reporting. Mostly based on former Fett staff, who agree with you, Sis. I don't disagree with you characterizing him as a "ticking time bomb." If we go with that, we don't want the time bomb to go off right after Democrats have 51 seats. And Fetterman switching parties hands Senate control back to Republicans. I'd use the term "loose cannon." To me, this actually explains why politicians like Chuck Schumer are useful. El Sayed can afford to call Fetterman an asshole, I guess. But I really don't see how that helps El Sayed win, or govern. I like the idea of someone like Schumer stroking Fetterman's back enough to keep the loose cannon from capsizing the whole ship. The Trump Party would love nothing more than to have Fetterman be THEIR loose cannon for the next two years. I hope the media just pound the shit out of the guy, like Breaking Points does. He is a useless piece of shit. He sucks. He's a slob. His brain is destroyed. He has become a cruel asshole. He sucks at constituents services. He is not up to the job. He can hate the media all he wants. But I would do a Schumer and leak the shit to the media. Which, for all we know, Schumer is. Fetterman will not survive a Democratic primary. That's pretty clear. I also think Krystal Ball is right. It's the stroke, stupid! Arguably, it's not even Fetterman's fault. Arguably, he should resign for health reasons. But if I were Chuck Schumer, and if I were to win 4 Senate seats, I would be focused 1000 % on making sure John Fetterman is NOT the loose cannon who sinks my Democratic Senate majority.

I can't believe how unfair you guys are! Right now, @Barknawy deserves our support! And thanks to some so-called Republican traitors and communists, he may have some tough jobs ahead of him. Some of these communist Republicans are actually against the government handing out $5000 to buy our votes. They call themselves Republicans. Ugh! They are obviously Communists who want the government, not the Trump family, to control things! And you all know @Barknaway is a Stupid American Murder Dog, that can't speak. He speaks through Tik Tok videos that addle his dumb murder brain. So you are being completely unrealistic! Like you think he can debate ideas and shit? Or separate facts from bullshit and lies? Come on! @Barknaway is good and loyal and true. He bites kids with HIV who no longer get their meds thanks to Trump and Musk. It is what our Stupid Murder Dog is best at. Getting rid of waste, like HIV meds, so that more money goes to things that make America great. Like Musk, or Donald Trump Jr, or Eric Trump. Please don't expect a stupid dog to be logical or understand facts. It is really unfair.

Works for me. Being a socialist Californian, I get to live in Socialist Reunified Mexico in this set up. Above all else, I don't want to be part of Canada. Those people can take their shitty honey and their Gay hockey players and go fuck themselves. Literally. Fun with GIFs. 😉 (P.S. What would the shitty Canadian hockey players look like if they had shitty Canadian honey all over them as they fucked? Asking for my Canadian sister-in-law.)

That is the issue again. The numbers. His stunt at Trumpalooza didn't help. It's as if he is bending over backwards to alienate Democrats. 😡 His swooning with Republicans doesn't make that much sense to me, if the idea is politics. I don't think Republican voters would rally to him in 2026 if he flipped sides. Particularly because on most issues he votes like a solid Democrat would. Again, GovTrack says he is more liberal than Rafael Warnock or Jon Ossoff or Gary Peters - three of the least liberal US Senators. My theory is this isn't about politics, or money. He's just saying, basically, "Fuck you. This is who I am, and what I believe. I'm right." Most politicians would argue that's not really good politics - at least most of the time. And knowing nothing about pre-2020 Fetterman, it's hard to know how much his depression and health issues are the cause of it. Mostly, I just hope he goes away. Part of why I feel conflicted is that he was the ONLY Democrat to flip a Senate seat from red to blue in 2022. So there is this aspect that no good deed goes unpunished. Do we want a Democratic majority, or not? Part of why I feel conflicted is that some part of me loves the fact that Fetterman wants to give Republicans and McCormick the respect they deserve. If I go back decades, especially to when I was most active with US Senators on Capitol Hill, that is how things tended to work. At least moreso than today. And I do miss it. That was definitely the Senate of Joe Biden. That said, if what I am saying is correct, he is kind of an anachronism. As was Biden. As am I, I guess. 🫢 It is definitely the age of silos and bitter partisanship. And while Trump is more symptom than cause, I blame it on Trump. His schtick is to barely win by dividing and conquering. It worked twice for Trump. But it's not good for America. Or even his party in the long run, I think. Check back with me in 2028. In my mind, I compare him to my disdain for Manchin. While Manchin argued that his centrism was sincere, it always seem to help line his pockets. And the pockets of family and cronies. Which is clearly what Trump cares about. With Fetterman it's not the money, as far as I can tell. It's his principles. Or his stubborn and piggish behavior, if you prefer. He is not a subtle man. I think he is a depressed man who was probably never that good at politics. And whose illness is just making him worse. Go away, Fetterman! Just go away

That's my hope!

It's not. We agree. That's my point. And speaking of Dems, how's it goin with Zohran, Sis? You haven't discussed your selfless public service for a while. And I know it's not like you to get worn out. 😀

Seriously? Granted, to quote El Sayed, the guy is kind of an asshole. But he is a Democratic asshole in a state where we just lost a Democratic Senator in the last election. This is worth stressing. A Democratic Senator almost lost in Michigan in a close call in 2024. That sitting Democratic Senator is seen as a moderate. A Democratic Senator almost lost in Nevada in a close call in 2024. That sitting Democratic Senator is seen as a moderate. Democratic Senators almost lost close calls in Wisconsin and Arizona in 2024. I'd tend to call Baldwin and Gallego progressives. It will be a minor miracle if Democrats win a Senate majority. Even Jesus could not win a Democratic majority in 2026 had we lost those four close calls I just outlined. We have a Republican Senate because we lost four states in 2024: West Virginia, Montana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. West Virginia is a lost cause. And he was such a royal asshole that I don't miss Joe Manchin at all. He stands for a Democratic Party of lobbyists that cuddle up to rich oligarchs like Manchin and his family. Manchin is for putting money in his pocket and his yacht. Last thing Manchin wanted is to keep child poverty cut in half by taxing billionaires and handing out money to working class Moms. Who MIGHT have voted for President Harris and a Democratic Senator in 2024 if we could have just fought for T.H.A.T.O.N.E.F.U.C.K.I.N.G.T.H.I.N.G. We might win Sherrod Brown and Ohio back. Woo hoo! If Brown wins again in 2026 it will be because he spent his whole life and career fighting for things Democrats should fight for. Not yachts! Casey losing in Pennsylvania in a very close race in 2024 was the only "swing state" Senate seat Republicans flipped in 2024. Given the choice between someone like El Sayed and Josh Shapiro, a liberal like me would take El Sayed any day of the week. But if it takes a moderate flip flopper like Shapiro who cuddled up to AI oligarchs and The Genocide Jew until it became toxic in order to win, I'm pragmatic. I'll take that over a Republican Senator. Partly because even with assholes like Manchin I'd rather have Democratic policies helping the working class rather than Republican policies enriching the Trump family. Fetterman himself is way more liberal than Raphael Warnock or John Ossoff, according to Govtrack's ideology ranking. His problem is he is bad at politics. And a depressed individual. It seems pretty clear the depression has taken over since his health incident. But I'd rather have a depressed D vote than a happy R vote. ESPECIALLY if it is the vote that makes the D vote the majority. So I don't understand El Sayed's "ogre on a pike" comment about Fetterman. To me it proves they are both kind of assholes. Who are both a bit too macho for their own good. Fetterman's problem is depression. El Sayed's problem is he is a bit too cocky. If he loses, that will be one reason why. I send El Sayed and Senate candidates in Iowa, Texas, Maine, Georgia, Alaska and Ohio small contributions every month Most of those candidates are LESS liberal than Fetterman. Fetterman is depressed and bad at politics. He has almost invited the scorn of Democrats who missed the memo that certain Democratic excesses (cancel culture and unchecked extreme positions) helped put Trump back in power in 2024. Proof of concept of Democratic political malpractice is it does no good to win the Senate by one vote and then have Fetterman flip. He could do that anyway, which I doubt he will. He makes clear he votes with Democrats on most issues. My hope is he just doesn't run again and deals with his mental illness issues. That seems to be the main problem. He is NOT the guy beloved in 2020. If he does run, he will be primaried out. Good for him. Rant over.

Well, it's cute. But I have to say. YOU did not make that video, Sis. All black business shoes. Understandable. But such a boring choice. Why not just a hint of color? 😉

I feel really, really bad Sis. Of the guys named above, at one point or another during my long (very long) Gay career (almost unbearably long), I've had huge Gay crushes on 5 of the guys you named. And, no. While you may be curious, all I can say is The Pillow Guy was not one of them. Who needs a pillow when you can rest your head on Dean Cain's chest at night? Well, that was then. It is curious. They helped make me Gay, I guess. Did I somehow make them MAGA? So sorry!