stevenkesslar

Trump indictment forces a GOP reckoning on 2020

And, so far, it looks like he ain't gonna lose it. 😊 As an update on these comments from months ago, this new polling from Kentucky is encouraging. In a red state where Biden is down 34/55 against Trump, Beshear is leading Republican Cameron 49/41. Good for him for pandering to the middle. To make an at least somewhat logical leap to a conclusion, this adds support to my theory of Ron DeSantis. He was polling at like 60 % approval after the competent job he appeared to do (even to Democrats, the polls said) cleaning up after a hurricane. And before his culture war legislative session. Now he is polling at 50 %, with his abortion and gun laws in particular being wildly unpopular. While it's a bit wishful thinking, maybe Ron has taken himself out as a potential POTUS in 2028 and opened the door for a Democratic Guv to replace him and his unpopular right-wing policies. Meanwhile, Beshear seems to be proving that what people want, and will vote for, is competent government. Which, in his case, is left of center. But not woke. I like it that he can so far seemingly get away with calling Kentucky's Republican handling of abortion "draconian."

This is the key point I can't get around. I've ended several close friendships because I just didn't see how Republican friends could rationalize these things away. I listen to very smart Republican consultants I respect, like Whit Ayres, saying correctly that getting your mind around the idea that Trump is a pathological liar is just a bridge too far for most Trump voters. And I get it, at least intellectually For me, the easiest "shoe on the other foot" argument is that Bill Clinton was a a serial predator rapist. And, by the way, what part of rape do you not understand? What part of predator do you not understand? Do you understand that this predatory shit named Bill Clinton, who was YOUR depraved predator rapist POTUS for eight horrible years, is a rapist? And, let me ask again, do you understand what a rapist predator like Bill Clinton is, and does? Because if you understand that, how can you fucking moralize about Trump, you fucking hypocrite? At its best, that's the argument that some Trump supporters have made to me. And they have a point. No Democrat should defend what Bill Clinton did, or want more of it. But that hardly makes "grab her by the pussy" defensible, either. But, to @Lucky's point, that whole "grab her by the pussy" or, to be inclusive, "Suck my cock, Monica" thing is so FIRST indictment. We're now well beyond that. We're now at lying about losing a Presidential election. We're now at a conspiracy to illegaly retain power. Death threats to Republicans leaders, and their families, who tell the truth about who won. Inciting mobs to shit on Nancy Pelosi's floor and break the bones of lots of cops because that's just the kind of shit we MAGA folk do to defend our country. That actually is worse than raping a woman, I think. It's one thing to fuck over a woman. It's another thing to fuck over a nation, and a democracy. So I can't get beyond the fact that these MAGA folk, who believe in this dark vision of America, just need to lose. I could give a flying fuck how old Biden is. He has done a good job, in my view. So I think he deserves to win again, anyway. But even if I were unclear about that, the idea that we're going to reward and elevate a moral worm like Trump is just very very wrong. And calling him a worm is polite. Because worms aren't intentional about being worms. Trump is intentional about everything evil he does.

This thread is just about six months old. It's interesting that the indictments started with the weakest one and have now, in effect, saved the best for last. The Jan. 6th indictment is about a complicated conspiracy centered on Trump. But the picture most Americans have in their mind is MAGA supporters jubilantly and patriotically breaking the skulls and bones of police defending democracy. It's in large part about the ugliness, lies, and divisiveness of many of Trump's MAGA followers. This next one is all about Trump, Trump, and Trump. Donald Trump's lies. Donald Trump's corruption. Donald Trump's loathing of democracy. You can hate a conservative Republican Governor and a conservative Republican Secretary of State for defending democracy. And some MAGA extremists will. Raffensberger and his family will probably get more death threats. But most Americans will hear the clear smoking gun, the clear lies, and the clear contempt for democracy. Play the tape every day between now and Election Day. And, yes, do the Divine Miss Graham's hair up so she looks pretty when she defends her actions. If that's possible. 😯 I know this is a thread on Trump's indictments. But I'm glad Democrats won't be talking about that. They'll be talking about this instead. Democrats’ climate law set off a wave of energy projects in GOP districts. A backlash followed. While Trump is talking about stealing votes in Georgia and how he really, truly, awfully really, definitely, for sure thought he won the 2020 election, let Democrats debate how many jobs they created in red states. Did I mention unemployment is at a 50 year low? Did I mention how the "misery index" is lower than when Biden beat Trump? Let's talk about that while Trump defends his sorry lying corrupt ass. That article is actually a very nice summary of the complex political dynamics. Money flowing into deindustrialized and rural areas. Republicans who hate the law but love the global investment in America and US factory jobs it's creating. Michigan residents arguing that, uh, what's good for Ford Motor and Michigan factory jobs is good for the Communist Party of China. That's at least an honest debate. Democrats crushed it in Michigan last year on a platform of making government work for people and defending our rights. This will help Biden win Michigan in 2024, fair and square.

In addition to hearing about Trump's soon to be four indictments every day between now and next November, I want to hear about Corrupt Clarence every single day, too. Dems revive calls for Clarence Thomas resignation after new report I figure Corrupt Clarence is worth two Special Counsels and one high tech impeachment. One Special Prosecutor for Corrupt Clarence, and one for his democracy loathing wife. Since they share far right extremist views, I'd be okay with them sharing one Special Counsel, I guess. But the impeachment belongs to Corrupt Clarence alone. Meanwhile, the kingpin of the Biden Crime Family, Joe, is known for having dinner at Cafe Milano, shaking hands, writing nice one sentence notes, and even truly evil shit like talking on speakerphone. Still no evidence of a $5 million bribe, though. Or any favors that impacted any actual policy. The Republicans will clearly be focused on Hunter until Election Day. Even though they have no trust for Trump-appointed Weiss. Who we were told in 2018 shared Trump's  "vision for Making America Safe Again." What is it with these Trump Judases like Weiss, Pence, and Christie? Can't we trust anyone anymore? I'm fine with picking on Hunter. He deserves it for being an influence peddling shit. But Corrupt Clarence, who actually can and does influence government policy, deserves it even more. (I'm of course leaving out Billion Dollar Boy Wonder Jared and China Money Whore Ivanka, since their corruption at least can no longer influence US foreign or domestic policy.) Thomas has highest unfavorability on Supreme Court: Poll All three Democrats have net favorable ratings, topped by Sotomayer with +14 net favorable. Thomas comes in last, even behind Kavanaughty, at -11 negative. Only good news in that for Corrupt Clarence is that Trump is even less popular. And even more corrupt. It's time for a high tech impeachment of a corrupt extremist judge who is wildly unpopular because he is a national disgrace.

Judge tosses Trump’s defamation suit against writer who won sexual abuse lawsuit against him Poor Trump. The shit he and denizens of the MAGAverse have to put up with! You can't even grab pussy these days. I have two questions moving forward. One, did Burisma bribe E. Jean Carroll to do it? Two, was this part of the same $5 million bribe to Hunter or Joe Biden? I sure hope not. When you think of Hunter or Joe in bed with Carroll, not literally of course, it's kind of disgusting. But not as disgusting as thinking about Swalwell boning Hunter while he defended him. No wonder the MAGAverse is just pissed off.

Yup. You are wrong again. We're friends here. So I can be blunt, right? Please @EmmetK. Keep being you. Stay gold. Stay true to yourself. Do what you do. Please. When the anger and lies and basic lack of decency ooze out of the MAGAverse, it just turns people off. Like the wine Moms. Hell. My McCain-loving brother ain't even a wine Mom. And he says Trump is a pathological liar and megalomaniac. Please, @EmmetK. Keep doing what you do. Be you. Tell all your friends to do the same. I'm lovin it. From the MAGA-centric New York Post House Ethics Committee concludes probe into Rep. Eric Swalwell’s interaction with suspected Chinese spy And from Swalwell: So I cited the Post because they are one of the best at creating Democratic "wrongdoing" where there is none. Right now there is an enormous amount of futile intellectual masturbation going on at the Post, trying to figure out how to transform "no wrongdoing by Joe Biden" into "Joe Biden took a $5 million bribe." Even the Post is coming up intellectually impotent. So on this one, they didn't even try. You stated Fang Fang is a Chinese spy. That is incorrect. She is a suspected Chinese spy, according to the MAGA-centric Post. You stated Swalwell slept with Fang Fang. Also incorrect. All the Post mentions is that she was a campaign volunteer who raised money for him. For all I know or you know, Swalwell is correct is calling this a "false smear." You certainly haven't proven anything. Other than that in the MAGAverse anger counts for way more than facts. But let's assume you're right, and Swalwell boned her. Because that gets to why Trump will lose in 2024, I think. We then have to assume that every young stud with a libido involved in politics should be particularly careful about every hot Chinese woman (or man) he knows. Because s/he might be a spy. Which I think was the whole "Eek! Chow mein!" thing @alvnv was getting at. Trump simply attacked an Asian Cabinet member of his for being Asian. So let's assume like MTG does that Swalwell was wrong for boning Fang Fang. Even though he stopped boning her when the FBI said, "Um. We suggest you stop boning that spy woman." Or something like that. You can make a case that under the highest of ethical standards, Swalwell should have assumed that Chinese woman was a spy, and not have boned her. Or maybe he should have assumed any woman can be a spy, and not boned anyone until he was married. Poor guy! But that's the rub. If we make such assumptions, here's what follows: Trump should have assumed every hot woman near him did NOT want to be raped. Trump should NOT have assumed every hot woman near him wants her pussy grabbed by some powerful old guy. Trump should NOT have assumed he won the 2020 election when all the evidence says the exact opposite. Trump should NOT have assumed that of course at least 11, 780 more votes in Georgia were cast for him. Trump should NOT have assumed that the MAGAzens he incited to go to The Capitol and beat cops were very fine people just protecting their democratic rights. I could go on endlessly. But you get the point. Please. Raise the standards as high as you can. It makes it that much more obvious to everyone outside the MAGAverse why Trump is such a dismal political and moral failure.

Who started World War II? I don't recall. And now Germany and Japan are both strong US allies. Vlad might want to factor that into his calculations. This has not gone well for Russia. And it ain't gonna end well for Russians. Even China is becoming wobbly. So much for eternal friendship. And don't worry about Americans killing Russians. The Ukrainians you love, respect, and want peace for are very busy killing Russians right now. In a war Russia started. Probably best to focus on that.

Okay. I'll be the first to admit I was wrong on this one. But I'm blaming my error on the vast military industrial complex. Vivek Ramaswamy suggests U.S. may be aiding Ukraine because of Hunter Biden The only thing that confuses me is why it's so cheap to bribe the US to go to war. I figured that with Dan Goldman in on it, there had to be a vast international Jewish conspiracy or something. Shit. The Goldmans could pay Hunter $50 million themselves, probably. But I guess this is just how deep the tentacles of the Biden Crime Family go. Sorry, Vlad. You're no match for the Bidens. I should have given @EmmetK a third option. I think what pisses the MAGAverse off the most is not that CNN or MSNBC report on Hunter's not ready for prime time fuck ups. Or even that they report the truth about Hunter's not ready for prime time fuck ups. It's that they need Hunter to be at the center of everything in America that people don't like. Spoiler alert: next week it will be that Hunter and Joe were bribed to make gas prices all over the globe spike, so as to help Burisma. Same $5 million, it turns out. I mean, how else is the MAGAverse gonna win when the alternative is Trump? But kudos to the crafty Ukrainians. That $5 million bribe sure went a long way! 😉

CNN reports: Former business partner says Hunter Biden sold ‘illusion’ of access to Joe Biden, source says And here's a video of MSNBC also reporting accurately. Both on Comer's "where there is smoke there is fire" theory, and on Devon Archer's testimony that there is no fire. What part of "no knowledge of wrongdoing by Joe Biden" is difficult to understand? I am curious. Which pisses you off more? The fact that CNN and MSNBC have been covering Hunter and his pal's influence peddling and corruption just as much as Fox or NewsMax? Or the fact that CNN and MSNBC actually report what was said and done accurately? Or maybe you never saw this stuff, because in the MAGAverse there's a news blackout on truth? Either way, it's got to be a bitch to live in a MAGAverse with so much anger and so little reality. I'm guessing what actually puts Trump himself in a rage is that Biden is so much better than him at not getting indicted. Basically because he doesn't open his mouth and indict himself. It's actually quite ironic, I think. This is a case study in corrupt, if not illegal, influence peddling by Hunter Biden. And Joe has been known forever as the verbose Gaffe Machine In Chief. But so far there is still no actual evidence that Joe Biden lied when he said he does not talk with his son about his business dealings. Let alone that he took a $5 million bribe. What we actually have is evidence, according to Archer, that Biden was repeatedly on speaker phone around God knows how many people who have NEVER heard him talk about his son's business dealing. Must have been hard for a senile verbose gaffe machine like Joe. Trump must seethe that every one of his indictments boils down to incredibly stupid shit that we know he actually said and did. And you still wonder why he keeps leading you to loss after loss, don't you? Don't blame me or my boring but factual posts when you lose again in 2024. I'm okay with being a boring winner.

You're so predictable in your totally one-sided MAGAVerse view of the world. When I wrote that, and conceded that Pelosi manipulated a Committee the way both Republican and Democratic Congressional leaders often manipulate Committees, I had a hunch you'd do exactly what you did. Any attempt to look at it both ways will always be taken and crushed by a MAGA zealot. Because there can always and only be one truth. The Trump Truth. And one glorious MAGA worldview. So OF COURSE Pelosi sucks. OF COURSE she is the Wicked Witch. OF COURSE she is the unique embodiment of Congressional evil. And Hollywood evil, too!!!! OF COUSE no one else could do something as evil to a Committee as what that evil witch did. Nothing else matters. There is no other side. Problem is, I just don't see Trump as Dorothy. He's more like The Wizard Of Oz. The pathetic liar behind the curtain. Oh well. Thanks for being so predictable. And boring. 😉

From the clown who just lies all the time To his folks who beat cops with Trump signs To the scene where the judge is so mean That's megalomania! He grabs for the lady in tights So she sues although she has no rights He's a dream of a rapist it seems That's megalomania! The plot can be hot simply teeming with sex A Straight divorcee who grabs pussy no less It could be Ron DeSantis And if Trump killed a follower, why would MAGA be bothered? The Veep who we learn is a creep From his boss who was thrown for a loss By Biden, who we know is lyin The world is a stage, the stage is a world of megalomania!

Two points. I guess you haven't spent much time around Congress. I've spent lots of time in House and Senate committee hearings. This is par for the course. Grassley engineered who did and did not get to testify with Dr. Ford. Why would anyone think of getting the other guy supposedly in the room when the assault occurred to testify? McConnell said we can't confirm Garland because it's an election year. He then said we can confirm ACB because it's an election year. What Pelosi did falls in the same category. I support what Pelosi did in this case. Because it's clear that the MAGAverse clones would have just spent the whole time telling MAGAverse lies. MAGAzens were free to tune The Pelosi Show out. Which they did. Everything outside the MAGAverse is fake. And truth only exists in the MAGAverse. Which leads to my second point. Trump says he will seek a recusal, venue change in Jan. 6 case So when it's a Trump-appointed judge in a red place like Florida, it's fair. When it's an Obama-appointed judge in a blue place like DC, it's the height of injustice. Truth is what Trump says it is. Fairness is what Trump wants: power and money. Everything else is shit. As true and loyal MAGAzens have been trained to believe. One of my brothers, who voted for Trump in 2016, has a great word for this: megalomaniac. I think I heard him call Trump a "megalomaniac" at least a dozen times in 2020. He was proud he voted for Joe Biden. So just be careful. Since you really do have a distorted view of life outside the MAGAverse, where most people live. My brother is a perfect example. He can't tell you who he voted for for POTUS in most elections. Although he really liked John McCain. So he's not particularly political. When I asked him if he had only voted on the economy in 2020, who would he have voted for? He immediately said Trump, because his retirement account went up a lot. But all the lies and megalomania deeply disturbed him. He can't tell you most people he voted for. But he was proud to vote against Trump. For some strange reason, that is what Trump and his lies and megalomania do to most people. So don't be surprised when the whining loser loses for a third time in a row in 2024 But then, of course, it will be because everything is always rigged against him.

Dude. You guys are way too patient and way too nice. "Biden" and "Stalin" are both two syllable words that end in "n." "Mao" and "Joe" and "Xi" are all one syllable words that end in evil, Communism, and mass death. Stalin deliberately killed 6 million people. Mao killed 40 to 80 million people through starvation and persecution. These evil Communists getting Trump out of the way by putting him in jail is just the beginning. What do you guys think Joe and Xi have in mind when the true nature of the Biden Crime Family is exposed? Do you really believe they will let it be exposed? Not even a great leader like Trump can prevent it, I fear.

And thank you for helping me to understand why people in the MAGAverse are always so angry. Everything is always the opposite of what it is, and what you want it to be. It must be wretched. I feel for you guys. I mean, let's take the Biden crime family. It's so obvious that Biden took a $5 million bribe from Chinese fraudsters to get the FBI and Crooked Joe's buddy Xi to arrest them. He even put the $5 million bribe on his taxes. And yet, somehow, a majority of Americans actually buy this idea that Trump tried to steal the 2020 election. Which is clearly a fabricated distraction. And yet Trump is the one who keeps being indicted. WTF? It must enrage the good citizens of the MAGAverse. And you guys are patient. Frankly, it's the kind of tyrannical bullshit that would make me think about wanting to bust open the head of some cop at The Capitol. Speaking of saying nasty things, I do have to say that Trump warned you guys, fair and square. He said point blank that in the MAGAverse I can shoot someone, and get away with it. So the point we are at now, to complete the analogy, is that he did shoot someone. And when it is pointed out that before he shot them, he said, "I can shoot them and get away with," the good citizens of the upside down MAGAverse are arguing there can be no crime. Because Trump can say whatever he wants. The fact that he shot someone is absolved by the fact that he said he way going to do it. So if these things - like the law - frustrate you deeply, which they obviously do, you only have Trump and yourselves to blame. Precisely. Of course Trump has the right to lie about how he won the election. Of course he can believe he was the greatest President ever. And that every woman in America wishes they'd be so lucky as to be raped or grabbed in the pussy by him. That's just free speech. And the more freely he speaks, the more he repels the majority of Americans. So please, Donald, keep speaking. Tell us what you really think. But it sure has to be a bitch. For those of us outside the MAGA fun house, there is no evidence of Joe Biden taking a $5 million bribe. But there is evidence on Page 2 of the indictment that Jack Smith says right out of the gate that Trump has the right to lie all he wants about the 2020 election. As well as most other things. It's when he uses those lies with intent to steal an election that his lies become an issue. Just like his speech becomes an issue when he actually does kill someone on Fifth Avenue. It has to be a total fucking bitch that everything is the opposite of what it seems to be in the MAGAverse. My sense from the polls is that most Americans, even though we are not all lawyers, actually get these distinctions. Asked whether a given anti-democracy Trump fuck up is criminal, or simply unethical, I think the biggest majority see Mar A Lago as criminal. Because that indictment is very detailed and very specific about how he lied and covered up. Alan Derschowitz is correct that the potential weakness of this particular indictment (it's getting hard to keep track) is the absence of an undeniably smoking gun. Based on what we know so far. "I just want to find 11,780 votes." Hmmm. What could that mean? Maybe Trump intended to coronate Joe Biden as The Big Guy who runs The Crime Family Of The Year. So he was just grubbing for votes in Georgia to give Crooked Joe the respect he deserves. That must be it. Then again, if we just put aside alternative facts, a jury could take it to mean he specifically intended to get Republicans in Georgia to steal the Georgia election for him. Crazy idea, I know. But these suckers that have been duped into ignoring the $5 million bribe Crooked Joe reported on his taxes are going to disappoint you every time. So just get ready. I'm so sorry life is so complicated for you. And that it leaves so many in the MAGAverse feeling enraged. Oops! There I go again. Lying leftists and their GIFs! They'll even try to turn a patriotic cop beating into a crime. Ugh!

Which is why the stuff about Alabama - Space Force, infrastructure - actually matters. It could be what gets Biden elected. One of the arguments Lichtman makes about why Trump lost in 2020 is that Trump actually wasn't interested in governing. And wasn't very good at it. As someone who despises Trump, I'd argue that is a bit harsh. The keys that COVID swung against Trump in Lichtman's theory are the two economy keys. But any other POTUS would have had the same problem when a once in a century virus hit. Trump knew that. Woodward or someone quoted him as saying privately, "God damn virus!" Even while he was publicly dismissing the threat. What particularly hurt Trump, if I go by the reactions of my two centrist brothers, one of whom voted for Trump in 2016, was his perceived incompetence in managing COVID. Unemployment Rate+Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average I didn't realize until today that the Fed actually tracks the misery index. I read that in an article about how Biden is getting no credit for an improving economy. But the misery index is now lower than in November 2020, when Biden was elected. My broken record theory about how Trump "somehow wins" is that Biden is running in the middle of a recession. The most recent example of how that works is 2020. You can see from that chart that Trump was riding a very low misery index, which he inherited from Obama. But for COVID and the recession it caused, he probably would have won in 2020. That said, the last time a POTUS ran for re-election in a recession and won was Truman in 1948. And it is not unlike 2024. There was 20 % post-WWII inflation that makes today look mild by comparison. Democrats were brutally punished for it in 1946. But by 1948 the inflation had abated. And the recession, which pretty much started around election day, was mild. I'd argue the MAGAverse fun show of 2023 makes the "Do Nothing Congress" of 1947 look like a paragon of governance by comparison. So Biden's path to victory is a misery index of 6 % or so. Which may be in reach. But a brutal recession coming soon to a state near you is Trump's best hope of winning. So I think Biden is doing the right thing. Focus on what he got done in Alabama. And what he wants to do to finish the job. He will still be punished if people think "finishing the job" means going from inflation to recession. But if it means going to a misery index of 6 %, especially low inflation, they'll probably go for for more years. If the alternative is four more years of MAGAverse and McCarthyism, it doesn't really leave much choice.

Or ............. 7 years of "Lock Her Up" got them a Republican victory in 2016. I don't completely buy that. Alan Lichtman correctly predicted Trump would win, based on his Keys, in Fall 2016. "Lock Her Up" had nothing to do with it, he argued. What did hurt Hillary was that she was not the incumbent. If I were to add "Crooked Hillary" as a factor, it would be The Second Coming Of Comey" in late October. Clinton herself blames her loss partly on that. And why do we think the FBI is in the tank for Democrats, again? Yet one more aspect of the MAGAverse fun show that makes no sense whatsoever. So that seems to be the aspiration. They want to make 2024 about Crooked Joe. Big problem as I see it is that the argument about the Trump Crime Family is simple. Trump is a criminal. Twice impeached, thrice indicted. The argument about the Clinton Crime Family was about Bill and Hillary Clinton. Bill was impeached. Hillary had Jim Comey up her ass. The argument about Joe Biden being a criminal is that Hunter Biden is his son. Having a fucked up son is a tragedy. But it is not a crime.

To me what really needs to be investigated is this: why does Hunter Biden have so many stupid business associates? Part of it is that all these people Comer and the MAGAverse are using to build their Biden Crime Family theory are either criminal or creepy fraudsters themselves. The Burisma guy, the corrupt China dudes, Archer, and of course Ghouliani and Trump himself. Pot, meet kettle. But they're also just plain fucking stupid. What was most interesting to me about the leaked FBI memo was that the head of Burisma said Hunter Biden, his board member, is stupid. Which is pretty obvious, even to Hunter's Mom and Dad. But then why the fuck did Burisma want him on the board, and pay him so much for the illusion of influence? Stupid. And, yeah. I know. Joe Biden publicly bragged, "I am a criminal. I got the good guy who was investigating Burisma fired. And Burisma paid me $5 million to do it. It's right there in my taxes. Which, unlike Trump, I disclosed. And I also bribed or extorted all kinds of EU leaders and Ukrainian reformers to pretend the good Ukrainian prosecutor was corrupt. So I could fire him for being a good guy. And now I am publicly disclosing that I am a criminal who took a $5 million bribe. Ain't I smart?" I mean, the MAGAverse can keep doing their Alice In Wonderland schtick and pretend that everything is the opposite of what it is. It's fun to laugh at. But, sorry. You have to be pretty stupid to believe Joe Biden is that stupid. Part of what is interesting about this is we are getting a master class on how the family members of so many powerful politicians (let's say Ivanka Trump, or Jared Kushner) peddle their influence legally. And get away with it. But why single out Hunter Biden? Text messages given to FBI: Chinese wanted Biden family name to help acquire U.S. energy assets To me that is proof of concept about how Hunter Biden is surrounded by terribly stupid business associates. At least with Burisma you can try to make a crackpot case that Joe Biden publicly admitted to being corrupt. With CEFC what ended up happening, as that story outlines, is the rich China dudes Hunter was peddling influence with ended up under arrest. So the argument with Ukraine is that Burisma allegedly paid Joe Biden to get an honest prosecutor fired, who everybody else in Ukraine and the EU happened to mistakenly think was corrupt. So what was Joe Biden paid to do in China? Get a rich guy paying him placed under house arrest by his buddy Xi? Get his buddies at the FBI to arrest the guy paying him, for bribery and money laundering? That's a good one! Hunter Biden's business associates have to be really fucking stupid if they are paying money to get Joe Biden to arrest them. And people in the MAGAverse have to be a little bit less intelligent than Hunter's business associates to believe this completely illogical bullshit.

The three you mention - Scott, Haley, Ramaswamy - are interesting. Two of them are ones I hope, as a Democrat, the Republicans might nominate in the future. Why? So we can get back to normal, after the Trump MAGAverse goes away. But I don't think any of them have a prayer in 2024. Part of what's interesting and sad is that if you turn the GOP primary into a gutter, of course anybody who jumps in gets shit all over them. Rich Lowry's article on Ramaswamy nailed it. He's a smart guy and a great communicator who is charismatic. And who has no business running for President. Lowry says Vivek's "political message was created in a lab" and in many ways is more pro-Trump than Trump. Check. What's interesting is that of the three people of color, this is the guy who is taking off. Why? I think he tells old white MAGA folks what they want to hear. Like if we just prayed more, and there was less of this Gay or Tranny or CRT shit, we could get back to a more Trump-like America based on values. 🤪 Old White MAGA people like hearing that from young charismatic Indian Americans. If it sounds like I don't have much respect for Ramaswamy, you are right. The other two I view as part of the Michael Steele political project. Which happened after Democrats nominated and elected Obama and the pre-Trump Republican Party tried to adapt. So the one thing I'll mention about Haley, in that context, is that she's the one who took the Confederate flag down after a horrible moment in her state's history. Some Never Trump Republican argued she's one of the few people to come out of the Trump Administration with her reputation and integrity intact. I buy that. The way I think about Tim Scott is that if the vision of the GOP is to promote a multi-racial Main Street capitalism that makes America thrive, he's the guy to do it. Here's a few reasons I like Tim Scott. When Corey Booker was asked what he thinks of Tim Scott, he said "I love him." He'd show up on Trevor Noah and say he doesn't hold any punches when it comes to race. Which he demonstrated is true, including with Trump. He talks about how he wants an America where we have each other's backs again. The sad thing to watch about Scott is that the longer the race goes on, the more Trumpy he gets. Which is understandable, since the GOP primary is The Trump MAGAVerse Show. So now Scott says it is a privilege to be attacked by Obama. And Obama got that whole race thing wrong. And Democrats use race to control Blacks, who I guess still vote Democratic anyway. It feels like what happens when principled men pander. And Ramaswamy is still the one the MAGAverse is swooning over. Because they really only want to be told what they want to hear. 2024 is just gonna be a gutter show, where everyone is slimed with shit. For a real Republican primary, try next time. Maybe 2028.

This second post is actually going to be about Alabama. But let me preface it with what David Geffen said in 2008. In explaining why he was backing Obama, Geffen said that all politicians lie. But the Clintons bring lying to a new level, he said. This thread confirms Crooked Hillary is a rookie. And Trump has brought lying to a new level. At least in the MAGAverse. I don't think it's that if you tell a lie long enough, it becomes the truth. I think it's more like if you simply lie all the time, some people will believe whatever you say. At least in the MAGAverse. There's the big lie about the 2020 election, of course. And the Jubilant Patriotic Cop Beating. There's the Trump-appointed US Attorney who somehow covered up for the Biden Crime Family. Until a whistle blower, who was obviously right, explained how the Trump-appointed special prosecutor was simply denied the right to prosecute the Biden Crime Family. Until the Trump-appointed special prosecutor said the whistle blower was wrong, and he did exactly what he wanted to do. But somehow the Trump-appointed US Attorney is still covering up for the Biden crime family. In fairness, how could anyone expect the good people of Alabama to sort out things like where Space Force or infrastructure appropriations fit in the upside down and inside out MAGAverse? Funny how Sen. Britt forgot to comment on how Tuberville is fucking up military force readiness and national security by blocking military appointments and promotions. Oh, right. That's the truth. We don't do that So it just flows that Trumpy Republicans argue the crux of this whole Space Force thing is that the Biden Crime Family, in addition to obviously being criminal, is also partisan. Damn! That's even worse. That's the per capita breakdown of where infrastructure money is going under the Biden Crime Family. In a nutshell, if you're a red state you probably get more per capita;. If you're a blue state, which voted the Biden Crime Family in, you probably get less. The crime is that the Biden Crime Family is actually being bipartisan. Ugh! Infrastructure Bill: Funding by State That article has a handy graphic where you can see how much currently goes to your state, per capita. So California gets $1,127 per capita New York gets $1,333 per capita Alabama gets $1,387 per capita it's a crime, ain't it? Let's just hope Joe Biden doesn't ask Tuberville "How's the weather?" at those Alabama ground breakings. That's now an impeachable offense! 😜

Actually, that's almost correct. Your statement about shakedowns works as long as you exclude countries that harvest organs from young adults who are minorities (China/Ivanka/fashion trademarks!!!!), or countries that use bone saws to kill Americans (Jared/Saudi Arabia/$2 billion slush fund). Other than that, you are absolutely correct. Jared Kushner raised $2B from Saudi prince MBS Affinity Partners raised funds six months after Kushner left White House Ivanka’s Trademark Requests Were Fast-Tracked In China After Trump Was Elected

I agree. I refer to Bush 41's war as "Desert Storm." The salient point there is what I think is still called the Powell Doctrine. Have defined objectives. Get in. Get out. We did. We won. To me the Bush 43 War, what I call the Iraq war, was total folly. When I'd argue with people about it I would use some quote or part of an essay from Bush 41, in the context of defending why he did NOT go to Baghdad. Everything Bush 41 predicted could go wrong did go wrong under Bush 43. I think there were four points. We'd get bogged down in a quagmire. It would split our allies. It would divide America. It would unite our opponents, especially Iran at the time. All turned out to be true. This is actually where I would differ a bit with Mearsheimer. Watching his speech I posted above (to some centrist DC think tank) is the first time I really rethought how I have felt since the war started. I think he's just right, from a military perspective, that time and the odds are on Putin's side. If Putin's objective is in fact to take over some or all Russian-speaking parts of Ukraine. I think Mearsheimer biggest thing really is that this is wrecking Ukraine. Which is what we don't want, and which was avoidable. He'd be the first one to say, "But, we are where we are." What I think he may underestimate is all Bush 41's points. This is unifying NATO. This is turning the world against Russia, and to some degree China. Even though much of the world wants to stay neutral, understandably. This is going to be a quagmire for Putin, even and especially if he can swallow a big chunk of Ukraine. The biggest problem for the US is this could also eventually split America. Since the Trump/MAGA folks want to cut a deal with Putin so Ukraine is not our problem. On my list of what would cause Vlad to actually use tactical nukes, not bluster, #1 would be to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. My logic goes like this. He did write a love letter to Ukraine. Which I think can be read as a plea to not turn Ukraine into an anti-Russia neighbor. But when push came to shove, all bluster and rhetoric aside, he decided that it made sense to just start slaughtering Ukrainian children like pigs, anyway. That's not bluster. So it suggests he's actually willing to go pretty far. Putin's a realist. So he has to know Ukrainians now hate Russia, even if some are forced to become part of it. But to Murderous Vlad slaughtering Ukrainian children like pigs and earning their hate and retaliation forever was worth preventing Ukraine from becoming an anti-Russia NATO neighbor. So would he take it one step further and use tactical nukes in Ukraine to prevent that? I'd say there's a good chance he would. Here's a debate I'd like to listen to. It would only take on real world meaning if Ukraine can't kick Russian soldiers out, and so there is a military stalemate. The debate I want is between Mearsheimer and Kissinger. Both argued for years for Ukraine to be a neutral and peaceful bridge between Russia and NATO. Otherwise, they warned, it might get wrecked. Both argue it is now too late for that. Mearsheimer argues that there is no way Putin will let any part of Ukraine join NATO. And don't even think about it, because he will use nukes to prevent that. Kissinger argues that Russia might accept Ukraine joining NATO. But it would have to be in the context of really changing the way Russia is treated. Like not as a pariah. Mearsheimer would argue, "Good luck with that." The West now sees Putin as Hitler. And Putin has no reason to trust a word any Western leader says. Like I said, the only point at which I think this kind of debate even makes sense is if there is a military stalemate that both sides want to somehow negotiate their way out of. For now, I'm for Ukraine turning Russia's young men into fertilizer. Russian Moms can thank Vlad for that. 😱

Which is where it gets tricky. If we really wanted Ukraine to have a deterrent, there were two things we could have done. One, told them to keep their nuclear weapons, so they could decide to remove Moscow from the planet at will. Or two, actually get them in NATO in 2008, or as soon as possible thereafter. We did neither. So, again, I think we - the US, NATO, the West - helped create this uncertainty where Ukraine is now being wrecked. So part of that uncertainty is that Ukraine, by design or error, could in fact start dropping our bombs on Russia. Some have argued they have a huge incentive to escalate, since it will draw NATO in. Which is what they want. It is very understandable to me that Zelenskyy was incensed about Biden's reticence about NATO. Because he is left dangling by a thread with a brutal butcher nearby. But Biden has read the polls and knows America is not itching to go to war with Russia. And meanwhile of course Trump will settle the whole thing in a day. Or maybe a few hours. Who knows. On the list of things that could provoke Vlad to use nukes, US bombs dropping on Moscow would probably be pretty high up there. Even if they were sent courtesy of Ukraine. I'd make a clear distinction there. Some have argued that Vlad may use nukes if Ukraine starts successfully retaking the four oblasts and humiliating Russia. If he did that, that's where I hope NATO just send the jets in. Because we are defending Ukrainians who are defending Ukrainian territory. Actually attacking Moscow with US weapons is a very different thing. I was adamantly opposed to the Iraq War. I hope what we've learned is that when we go on offense, we tend to suck. When we are defending people who actually want to be defended, we do much better. If you go with the idea that Ukraine is being wrecked, which is not really what either the US or even Murderous Vlad wants, it does make sense to keep the war in Ukraine and try to make it the least bad it can be. That means, best case, Ukraine can actually win a war of attrition. Worst case, Murderous Vlad chews off and swallows a chunk of Ukraine. But then, whether he realizes it or nor, I think just about 100 % of the 20th Century - not to mention more recent adventures in Iraq and Afghanistan - suggests he's gonna have some really nasty shit inside him for a long time to come. I do think Murderous Vlad has a huge problem, either way. Poor thing. As far as US and NATO interests, I like the idea that what starts in Ukraine stays in Ukraine and ends in Ukraine. If US or NATO leaders decide it is in our interest to blow up lots of Russians, we should do that inside Ukraine. There are lots of Russian soldiers there that the locals would absolutely love to see slaughtered.

Exactly. There's two issues. I assume the generals and diplomats are both working overtime to calibrate aggression and response. So you have good ideas about measured responses. If they do A, we do B. But we don't do C. My point is that Putin, for now, is fighting a long and very bloody war of attrition. In which he has more soldiers and more artillery. So if we are talking about what NATO's force can do, I hope Putin has been told that if he does certain things, like nukes, we'll send in NATO jets. Not ships or escorts. And we will blow the fuck out of Russian soldiers and defenses. To me the absolute worst form of appeasement would be tolerating Putin's use of nukes. That said, whatever we do involving grains and ships doesn't alter the fundamental dynamic. Putin could win a long and bloody war of attrition by outmanning and outgunning his opponents. Second issue. Putin is not Hitler. This is where I think Mearsheimer, who I have cited a lot, is right on. His basic shtick, and the title of his most recognized book, is about the tragedy of great power politics. His pithy line about Hitler is that he ran "Murder, Inc." and killed about 20 million people, mostly civilians. Nazi Germany was fundamentally an aspiring great power that was going to cause trouble and had to be stopped, he argues. He viewed the USSR the same way, but less deadly. He puts Putin in a different category, I think appropriately. He argues, and I agree, that NATO fucked up in 2008 when it promised Ukraine, "We have your back, but not really." He has argued for years Ukraine was in danger of being wrecked. And now it is being wrecked. Mearsheimer has a word that I think describes this perfectly: tragedy. Especially for Ukraine. That's not excusing or apologizing for Murderous Vlad. But it is saying he is not Hitler. Meaning he does not have to be stopped at all costs, even if it totally wrecks Ukraine. Because even Murderous Vlad, in his love letter to Ukraine I posted above, seems to say that wrecking Ukraine is not the purpose of this exercise. Besides, even if he gets what he wants, like four or more oblasts, he's going to have to fix what he wrecked. While millions of Ukrainians (even if they are forced to be Russians) with dead husbands or kids dwell on how much they hate Russians. i agree with Kissinger and Mearsheimer that until Putin chose to start this war, there was a path to a neutral Ukraine that was a peaceful bridge between Russia and NATO. Not a country to be wrecked. Both those guys now argue it's too late for Plan A, thanks to Murderous Vlad. And if Ukraine wants to and can win a bloody war of attrition, I'm all for it. Like I said, what I most want now is for Biden and Congress to appropriate more money to send them more weapons ASAP. That's not appeasement. But the least bad Plan B for Ukraine may end up being a bloody and awful military stalemate. And the avoidance of even worse things that will further wreck Ukraine, like nuclear bombs dropping on Ukrainian cities or soldiers.

I agree. I was summarizing the argument someone else made. I think putting NATO ships at risk is not a particularly good idea. A better idea, if we Americans want to to roll the dice, is to blow the living fuck out of as many Russian soldiers in Ukraine as quickly and as mercilessly as can we can. With NATO planes, not ships. The only problem with my idea, like the NATO ship idea, is that Murderous Vlad might use the nuclear codes. That's probably why NATO jets won't blow the shit out of Russian soldiers. And even Murderous Vlad won't go nuclear. Short answer: you're right. That's exactly why Ukrainians will hate Russians more, and find it easier to kill you. You are right next door. How many drones from Kabul are ending up in Moscow these days? From Ukraine, a dead Russian in Moscow is just a drone's throw away. But why bother killing Russians in Moscow when it is so much easier to kill them in Ukraine? And the idea that you are slaughtering the Ukrainian children that you supposedly love, and that speak Russian, and are just like you, is precisely why Ukrainians will spend generations, if not lifetimes, wanting to slaughter you like pigs. Even the US, in Iraq and Afghanistan and Vietnam, couldn't figure out how to get Canadians to want to kill us. Somehow, Murderous Vlad managed to figure it out. Congratulations, @Moses! Long answer: let's discuss theory, and reality. As a preface, that video of John Mearsheimer saying Ukraine is more likely to lose a long and bloody war of attrition to Russia has a number of comments from what sound like very reasonable Russian citizens. Their point is that this academic, an American patriot, is able to see the world the way many or most Russians do. Why is that so hard? Article by Vladimir Putin ”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians“ Mearsheimer referred to the love letter MV (I'll abbreviate for Murderous Vlad) wrote to Ukrainians in 2021. Listening to Mearsheimer, it honestly was a head scratcher. The Western propaganda I'd heard about the love letter was that MV is some psycho. Who has these delusions about history. And I will agree with MV's critics that his historical scholarship is very one-sided. But it honestly does read like a love letter. Or perhaps a plea. Let me quote MV. And since MV has a warm fuzzy spot is in his heart for Gays like me, I'll even stipulate that We Gays should view MV kindly. So let's assume what he says is correct: I said above that I think NATO fucked up in 2008. Mearsheimer would argue that Ukraine was essentially invited to be wrecked by NATO. And now they are being wrecked, with no end of the slaughter in sight. Now I'll add that we're going to stipulate that this is basically because Crooked Hillary and the CIA could not let it go. Fucking up Libya and fucking up Iraq was not enough. Crooked Hillary just had to fuck up Ukraine, too. Let's also say, as Mearsheimer and Kissinger do, that Ukraine played their cards poorly. They had a chance to be a peaceful bridge between NATO and Russia. Which is what MV is actually begging for in his love letter. So we have Crooked Hillary doing evil shit, which we all know she is good at. And MV and Ukrainian kids, who are all peace and love. Or all Мир и Любовь in the language they both speak. Ain't it swell? Let me quote MV again, from his love letter: Aww! What a guy! I said let's compare theory to reality. So we have Vlad's love letter as theory. Now let's shift to reality. Here's the rub. If Murderous Vlad respects Ukrainians' desire to be free, why the invasion? He has to know that in every oblast but the Crimea, over 80 % of Ukrainians voted for freedom from Russia. How is this respect? And if he wants Ukrainian children, many of whom speak Russian, to be safe, why is he slaughtering them like pigs? That's a really big problem, I'd say. Maybe that's how you build respect. But I'd guess it is how you build hate. Shit. Ukraine just voted to not even celebrate Christmas on the day Russians do. So much for traditions. I could make a good argument that Murderous Vlad fell into Crooked Hillary and the CIA's trap. He said in his love letter that it was unacceptable to further stoke these "anti-Russia" feelings in Ukraine. Well, geez Louise! (How do you say Geez, Vlad! in Russian?) I'd say he got exactly what he didn't want. He lost the geopolitical game. Ukrainians now hate Russians. And of course they would happily slaughter Russians like pigs. Just like Russians slaughter Ukrainian kids like pigs. Can you blame them? So we do have the Crooked Hillary Theory. But I think Mearsheimer is also right that this is a classic example of the tragedy of great power conflict. Although he says a big part of the problem is that MV is only a great power wannabe. If there is a road to peace, it probably starts with a military stalemate. And the idea that neither the US nor Russia really benefit from this in the long run. But China does. That said, I'd much rather be the US than Russia. Ukrainians are welcoming US soldiers who train them. Yet they are slaughtering Russian soldiers as quickly and as brutally as they can. Why do you you think that is, @Moses? One way in which this is exactly like Afghanistan, whether we are talking about the USSR or US invasion, is that it is a quagmire that the invading power can't win. Mearsheimer has the most optimistic take I've heard for MV, based on what he hears from smart Russians. The very best hope is that MV can hold the four oblasts he occupies, and maybe take a few more. But that is years of bloody war that will be really bad news for the Russian economy. Probably the best case for Russia is that they're able to continue to shrink slowly, rather than shrink a lot. Maybe all those Ukrainians forced to relocate to Russia can help. The way in which this is worse for Russia than Afghanistan is that your enemy is right next door. Or, actually, inside what Murderous Vlad now calls Russia. If you think they will stop wanting to slaughter you like pigs, @Moses, dream on. But it might be wise to lock your door when you're asleep. If I wanted to make a wildly optimistic prognosis for how Ukrainians will soon be swooning over Murderous Vlad, it would simply be that he is Murderous Vlad, If they don't love him, and respect him, he will kill them. So basically what played out in Chechnya plays out in Ukraine. It could work. Mearsheimer argues that Poland will be safe for 20 or so years. Because that's about how long it will take Murderous Vlad, or his Murderous Replacement, to pacify the Russian speaking part of Ukraine. Who voted 4 to 1 against being part of Russia. Oh, did I mention that was BEFORE their kids were systematically slaughtered? I think the problem is that Chechnya has a little more than 1 million people, compared to over 2 million in Kyiv alone. And Chechnya is not split in two, with NATO on their border. So MV did get exactly the problem he didn't want when he started a war. There's every reason to think this is like Afghanistan, just closer. And easier to kill Russians. If not, the other example not far away is West and East Germany, as the younger MV knew all too well. We all know how that ended. A lot more. Google says 15,000 Soviet soldiers died in Afghanistan. The estimates are 50,000 to 100,000 Russian soldiers so far. And if MV has his way, the slaughter is just getting started. Historians suggest the 15,000 dead soldiers and quagmire in Afghanistan helped bring down the USSR. If so, what does this mean for Murderous Vlad?