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fedssocr

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Everything posted by fedssocr

  1. "where did the money go?" Most of it never really existed in the first place. It was all just numbers on a page. Real estate prices got overinflated. Property was never worth what people were paying for it. And people who were buying it didn't have any money and no prospect of ever paying the money they borrowed back. So, when sanity finally started returning to real estate values (or they just simply couldn't go up any higher) the people who couldn't pay the money back also couldn't sell their house to pay off the loan. The banks bundled all of these bad loans together and sold them to greedy investors in a con game. For a while the "value" of those things went up. And I suppose if you managed to sell out of them you would have made a killing. But when the "value" dropped all of those paper gains disappeared. And when you look at money in general, what is it really worth? The US dollar for example has nothing behind it. In the old days when we had the gold standard there was shiny metal behind every dollar. Now it just sort of exists. They call the system "fiat currency" because its value is determined simply by fiat...an arbitrary decree. It's all a big con game. And with all of this "stimulus" the Federal Reserve will have to start printing money which will drive down the value of the dollar because there will be more in circulation without anything more of value behind it. The Chinese have been buying up our bonds so we would have money to buy their manufactured goods. So they are going to be left holding bags full of American money that will be losing its value.
  2. I agree no one really knows for sure. I swing between the two extremes depending on what I have just read or heard. If you want to see real pessimism check out The Daily Reckoning http://www.dailyreckoning.com/ It's put out by a bunch of economists who have a fairly good track record of prediction although they tend to repeat themselves a lot and spend a lot of time telling you to buy gold. I am most depressed after I read their newsletters. They are definitely on the side of "this is a worldwide depression that is going to really hurt a lot of people." They recently produced a film called "I.O.U.SA" which is about American debt and how it will cripple our economy. Then I talk to people like my financial planner who is more on the side of "this is a cyclical downturn that happens on average once a decade". Sometimes it lasts a year sometimes longer. This one is longer. Of course he has a vested interest in the current system so that likely colors his opinion. So no one really does know. But I think the Daily Reckoning guys make a lot of logical sense. Their basic take, with regard to the American economy anyway, is that we have too much debt to be sustainable and that the value of our currency is wildly inflated and must at some point go into free fall. That makes sense to me. Hence their drumbeat of "Buy gold! Buy gold!" They also talk a lot about how the consumer is doing what the consumer has to do given the situation, which is to cut spending and increase saving. Which seems to be feeding into a self-sustaining downward spiral. If you are living on a fixed income in Thailand I think you are probably in better shape than you would be if you were living on a fixed income in the UK or USA because your expenses should be lower. Unless your fixed income is so low that you are struggling even in Thailand. In which case you may want to move to the countryside and start growing your own food. :-) I did notice that the USD is now fairly consistently above TBt35 for the last week or so and seems to be gaining.
  3. maybe they don't need to. I have been reading lately that Ambiance has been quite full through the "high season". Perhaps their bookings don't require them to offer any incentives.
  4. Thanks, then Hanoi it is. :-) Yes, I will be flying between places.
  5. I am planning to visit Vietnam later this year for 9 or 10 days. I am pretty certain I want to visit Hue to see the imperial sites and also Hoi An for a couple of days. I will not have enough time for both Hanoi and HCMC. SO, if you had to pick one or the other which would it be? I like ancient history and culture most of all. And cute boys of course, but I assume they are everywhere. :-)
  6. That airport line keeps getting pushed back. But the stations seem to be coming along pretty far construction wise. At least when I was driving along the highway they looked far along. Wasn't the reason why it has taken so long that the original piers for holding up the tracks were sinking in the soft ground? I wonder if there is really a way to fix that or if the whole thing will fall down once it starts running.
  7. Enjoy 35 while you can. I don't think there's much of anywhere for the USD to go but down in the future. We've got too much debt and it's only going to get worse. Eventually the world is going to catch on that we are never going to be able to pay back all the trillions we owe already.
  8. fedssocr

    Laos

    I don't want to say too much... however I had a Lao invite me to his home. Certain things may or may not have happened there. And I invited my tour guide into my hotel room briefly without any repercussions.
  9. fedssocr

    Vietnam Trip

    I will be very interested in hearing about your trip. I have been trying to decide where to vacation this year and Vietnam is on my list of possibilities. I have heard some conflicting reports about it though.
  10. I think people are excited and optimistic after what we have suffered through these last 8 years. Everywhere I went in SE Asia last month people were asking about Obama. People were excited about him. Although one guy who was a little older was also a bit skeptical. I think he basically said "But he's just another politician, right?"
  11. As you say, "what compels them"? I believe it is just that, a compulsion. As such there is little or no rationality to it. Clearly any rational person would steer clear. But I think it is a sort of mental illness almost. There was a popular TV program here in the US a couple of years ago in which a TV crew would wire up a house with all sort of cameras. They would lure an unsuspecting guy to the house with a decoy pretending to be an underage boy or girl. Then once they were inside the TV host would come out and start interrogating the guy about what he was doing there. After he finished with them and told him he could leave the police would swoop in and make an arrest. One man they lured two or three times. He was clearly mentally ill or I think borderline retarded. He was simply unable to stop himself even after he had been caught a couple of times before.
  12. wow, poor guy. Just $500 million!? That's barely enough to last a lifetime.
  13. well, I think it's true that the whole place isn't crawling with little boys being chased by old drooling men 24/7. However, I must say that I have seen some rather shocking things in Sunee that I have never seen anywhere else. So it is not difficult to see how the place comes by its reputation. Those who think there is nothing bad about Sunee must not be looking very hard, because I have not been digging too hard to see the things I have. But I do agree that there are plenty of places that are on the up and up that are perfectly fine businesses. So, as with most things, the truth lies somewhere in the middle.
  14. Thanks for those awesome photos. I really need to visit Sukhothai one of these days. I am enjoying your adventure from the comfort of my sofa as well. :-)
  15. well, they will need to keep up around 50 miles a day to do the trip in 30 days.
  16. well, people arriving now likely booked their trips long before the trouble at the airports. And now that the airports are operating you couldn't change your flights without paying hefty fees. If you prepaid for a package vacation you wouldn't be able to change that now either. I think any drop off might not be evident until later. However, I also think that people have short memories as long as there isn't shooting in the street on Silom or at Siam Paragon. If the new government can actually get to work and get some things done confidence will be restored. How bad was it? Well, it's true there wasn't a conflagration. But for those of us delayed and inconvenienced it was pretty bad. My extra week ended up costing me about US$1300 for hotel (although I clearly could have chosen much cheaper accommodation so I do take some responsibility for the cost), my transfer to Phuket, and my flight from Phuket to Singapore. Plus it cost me a week of vacation time which means I will not be able to spend the Christmas holiday with my parents as I usually do. While not physically harmful it is a bit of a blow. For those of us who could afford it, it wasn't a huge problem but that is money I won't be able to spend on other things. For people already strapped for money or elderly people or people with babies and small children I think it was a bigger hardship. For sure there are many, many, many worse places to have been other than Bangkok during that time. As the world's economy keeps falling I think we'll be seeing more and more civil unrest around the world related to that even though the current big trouble in the world isn't directly a result of the economy I think it does play a part in that people act out when they are desperate.
  17. Exactly. China basically owns the USA now.
  18. Seems like the clear idea is to give Thais the day off so they will boost tourism. Give them a 4 day weekend and they can travel within the country. Plus, don't most people get paid at the end of the month? So they will have money to spend. Seems like a sensible idea given the circumstances.
  19. I have a Thai friend who lives here in the US. He happened to be in Thailand the last couple of weeks visiting his family. They also said that they didn't think things would ever be settled until Thaksin is dead.
  20. I don't understand why she wasn't arrested on the spot.
  21. I was talking to some one who works in the tourism industry today. He believes that once the airports reopen this will quickly be forgotten unless there is shooting in the streets and dead bodies at the airport. I am not so optimistic as he is. But he has lots of people booked now who are still trying to get in so maybe he knows more than I do. Personally until the political situation gets settled to some degree I would not recommend anyone come here if they will really need to get out without a potential hassle. Of course I have lived through the current problems. If I were on the outside looking to come here instead it's possible I would feel differently. Generally I think the tourism areas are safe. But with the two sides so polarized I think the tensions will continue to go on for some time. And as much as I love the people here, I think there are plenty of other places with great people to visit. I suppose that if you are just a sex tourist there is nowhere better. But with the decline in tourism that I believe will happen there will be more desperate situations and more crime. And some of that I think will inevitably be directed to the rich guys who come here for cheap sex.
  22. Seems to be a lot of conflicting information there. The airport to open today or tomorrow but maybe not until the 15th or in seven days or...or...or... I guess cargo operations can start before passenger service is allowed. That makes sense. I wonder if the date of the 15th is a worst case for passenger service and that a week may be possible.
  23. I guess I have a little more sympathy for the airlines. This really is unprecedented. And there's no way to know when it might end. I would imagine that any contingency plan for the loss of Suvannabhumi would have been to start using Don Muang for international flights. With both of them out of commission they are stuck. And so many of their aircraft were stranded for the better part of a week that really tied their hands as well. At least THAI are doing something. United for example is completely at a loss. No flights operating at Utapao, Phuket, or anywhere else. Get yourself to Singapore or Hong Kong and they will help you. But they are not helping anyone get to those places. I have a Thai friend from the USA who is also stuck here. ANA however is flying from Utapao, so he is getting out tomorrow that way. He has to check in at the Dusit Thani several hours in advance and will be bused to Utapao. I think the airlines have finally figured out that it is a good idea to check people in in town and then put them on a bus to the airport. I wonder if they are even busing people right to the plane. That would seem the most sensible idea.
  24. In the meantime, some airlines are adding flights at Phuket. Tiger Air is adding a few flights per day between Phuket and Singapore. Singapore Airlines is also adding some flights. And several European airlines are going to operate from Phuket as well. So things will get a little bit crowded there but at least it is an airport of decent size unlike Utapao. Tiger's website shows open seats Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday. I am guessing that tomorrow they will add flights for Thursday if there is enough demand. At the moment it looks like the best bet for getting out of Thailand may well be a long drive down to Phuket. I am planning to do so on Wednesday. United has already rebooked me for Thursday from Singapore to home. I am crossing my fingers that I am able to get a seat for Wednesday.
  25. well, TAT also have a hotline/info line to call so they can give information on this program and help stranded people. The number is 03-253-5500 x1701 and I also see the number 1672 being advertised. I would guess that hotels should have these forms to fill out. I asked at the place where I am staying and they say they do not have instructions from their management company. I will talk to the front desk again tomorrow.
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