California Governor

[Suckrates]

51 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:

I wonder if Gavin Newsom will be the next POTUS, and Xavier Becerra will be the next Gray Davis.

The same factor could drive both:  recession, AI bubble collapse, bad Forever War.  Bad times somewhere in the ballpark of 2008.  In that scenario, Becerra will have been Governor for two years.  And he would own it.

If I had to bet today, I would bet that after a decade of declining 80 year olds as POTUS (not to mention a declining America) voters will want someone younger. That said, Newsom and Harris as Guv and Veep are the most experienced.  Will voters put age or experience first?  Who knows?  Will Trump actually try to go for a third term?  Who knows?

But I digress.  Nothing suggests Becerra will be a beloved Governor.  Ronald Reagan, Jerry Brown, Arnold Schwarzenegger, and Gavin Newsom were all either movie stars or political icons by the time they ran for Governor. 

Probably the best case for Becerra is he is a Democratic Pete Wilson.  Wilson climbed through the ranks as a competent bureaucrat and politician at a time when California was kind of a purple state.  Becerra could do eight years of that in blue state California, perhaps.

Not sure Kamala would be willing to play 2nd fiddle AGAIN,  when she was almost 1st fiddle in 2024......?   It would be almost like demoting herself....you never want to do that in a political arena because it sticks with you.    But as a Black woman in American politics, playing 2nd fiddle may be the best gig she can get ?   

I'm not sold on Newsom.....  he seems like the "I'm ready for my closeup, Mr Demille" kinda guy.....   He would be just another Tik Tok President......   I'm already over those. 

[stevenkesslar]

45 minutes ago, Suckrates said:

Not sure Kamala would be willing to play 2nd fiddle AGAIN,  when she was almost 1st fiddle in 2024......?   It would be almost like demoting herself....you never want to do that in a political arena because it sticks with you.    But as a Black woman in American politics, playing 2nd fiddle may be the best gig she can get ?   

I'm not sold on Newsom.....  he seems like the "I'm ready for my closeup, Mr Demille" kinda guy.....   He would be just another Tik Tok President......   I'm already over those. 

 

I wasn't suggesting that.  Although the way I wrote it was unclear.  My point is that Kamala as Veep and Newsom as Guv are the most experienced.  I was not suggesting they would end up on a ticket together.  

And the nation is not sold on Newsom, either.  The polls have been consistent. She's # 1, he's # 2, and Pete is #3. They are the three that consistently crack double digits.  I can easily see how any of those three win the nomination.  AOC is #4, sometimes cracking double digits.  I hope she runs instead of Bernie, so that wing of the party has a platform.  But I can't see her winning.

If I make the most optimistic assumptions about the economy - like this is the new Roaring 20's - the trite historical analogy is that JD Vance wins in 2028.  And he is the new Herbert Hoover left holding the bag.  I don't think that scenario is likely.  More likely is that the shit has hit the fan by 2028, and the stock market and economy have both tanked.  Lots of Americans of course feel like we are in a recession already, thanks to the generosity of the billionaires.

What Newsom has going for him is lots of experience actually running an economy.  And managing the split in a big state between progressives and traditional liberals, who are now kind of the moderates.  While Harris has the plurality of the base, she has never really done either.  Michigan is a great example.  You can blame it on Biden, not her.  But in Fall 2024 she could not unify Michigan enough to win the state.  And I don't think she ever closed the deal on how she was the better steward for the economy.  Arguably, Newsom has.  At least in California.  They tried to recall him and got nowhere.

The rise of Democrats in California was largely due to what I'd call traditional liberal women.  Feinstein, Pelosi, Boxer, Harris.  Feinstein and Boxer epitomized the Year of the Woman in 1992.  Which now seems minor by comparison.  The Governor's office was a safe space for White men like Davis, Brown, and Newsom.  Once Becerra wins it will be all men again.  And two of them will be Latino men.

If the goal was to build a made-in-the-lab ideal Democrat, I think there is a great argument that a Latino male would be the ideal.  I thought Ruben Gallego was the one who best matched that idea.  But he has stumbled around being too palsy with Eric Swalwell, and having some festering handsy whispering of his own.  The most likely Latino male that could be POTUS is 2029 is Marco Rubio.  AOC is of course Latina.  But like I said if she runs I think she will be like Bernie 2016 and 2020.  She can't get a majority in a Democratic primary.

El-Sayed was a turning point, I think.  Like Pete said, right now all eyes are on Michigan.  The fact that someone that progressive - abolish ICE!  Israeli genocide! - could win the primary in a swing state definitely shows things are changing.  And now the question is just how badly Iran wants to crush Trump's worthless rapey testicles before the election. The sorry piece of shit will limp into the midterms with fat ankles and crushed balls and a stupid barking dog rooting for dead children with AIDS in Asia. 

It's gonna be messy, and tragic, and exciting.