Brazil ignored the warnings. Now, while other countries are concerned about a second wave of coronavirus, it cannot overcome the first
While strolling on Copacabana beach on June 13, residents of Rio de Janeiro expressed concern about Brazil's efforts to combat the coronavirus pandemic.
June 16, 2020 at 3:00 pm PDT
RIO DE JANEIRO - Weeks ago, when this seaside metropolis had registered less than 10,000 cases of the new coronavirus and there still seemed to be time, some of Brazil's most respected scientists made their last call. The country has reached a crucial moment. Cases skyrocketed. The hospital system was fluctuating in capacity. Thousands had already died.
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So Carlos Machado, a senior scientist at the Oswaldo Cruz do Brasil Foundation, wanted the language to be strong. At the request of the Rio authorities, his team was putting together a list of recommendations. He needed to make it clear what would happen if they didn't immediately impose a complete block.
"This would result," warned the team in the early May report, "in a human catastrophe of unimaginable proportions."
As the coronavirus kills indigenous people in the Amazon, the government of Brazil disappears
But the authorities never instituted a blockade. The number of cases and deaths has skyrocketed. People stopped isolating, choosing to pack the beach boardwalks on weekends. And the warning turned out to be just another exit ramp that Brazil refused to take to become the second most devastated country by coronavirus in the world.
So far, the largest country in Latin America has registered more than 888,000 cases of coronavirus and almost 44,000 deaths, the second in both cases in the United States alone. But while other countries have gone through steep curves and are now focused on preparations for a possible second wave, Brazil cannot even overcome the first.
A performance protest on June 15 in Brasilia honors Brazilians who died after contracting the new coronavirus.
A performance protest on June 15 in Brasilia honors Brazilians who died after contracting the new coronavirus. (Adriano Machado / Reuters)
What is happening here seems to be globally unique. Despite the increasing numbers, the authorities have not implemented widely successful measures in other parts of the world. There was no national blockade. No national testing campaign. No agreed plans. The expansion of health care was insufficient. Instead, the hardest-hit cities are opening their doors to shopping malls and churches, even when the country routinely publishes more than 30,000 new cases a day - five times more than Italy reported at the height of its outbreak.
Inaction has taken the country on a path that scientists call the unknown.
"We are doing something that no one else has done," said Pedro Hallal, an epidemiologist at the Federal University of Pelotas. "We are getting close to the peak of the curve and it looks like we are almost defying the virus. See Let's see how many people you can infect. We want to see how strong you are. 'So this is a poker game, and we're all in."
The slums of Brazil, neglected by the government, organize their own fight against the coronavirus
Brazil is on a path to record more than 4,000 deaths per day and surpass the United States in infections and deaths by the end of July, according to researchers at the University of Washington. But just as the pandemic is widening the similarities between the United States and Brazil - two countries the size of continents with extreme inequality and populist presidents - it is also revealing the chasm between them. Brazil does not have the largest economy in the world or one of the strongest health systems. It also lacks the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The Parque Taruma cemetery, in the city of Manaus, in the state of Amazonas.
The Parque Taruma cemetery, in the city of Manaus, in the state of Amazonas. (Bruno Kelly / Reuters)
Limited resources have always meant that Brazil had far less room for error - less room for political disagreements in the face of an outbreak - than its more developed peers. But despite the bets, the country never found unity. President Jair Bolsonaro, who continues to reject the disease and its victims, called for a policy of doing nothing. He attacked governors who defended restrictive measures as corrupt liars, invaded the crowd of supporters, defying the warnings of his advisers and threatened to have a big barbecue, despite public health recommendations.
The limits of coronavirus testing in Brazil are hiding the true dimensions of the biggest outbreak in Latin America
Bolsonaro has not trained health experts and scientists to lead a response. Instead, they were undermined and ignored, marginalized and driven out. He sacked his first health minister, Luiz Henrique Mandetta, whose sober briefings calmed anxious Brazilians after he and Mandetta faced the need for social distance. Then he pushed Mandetta's replacement, Nelson Teich, who failed to share his zeal for using chloroquine as a treatment for coronavirus. (The US Food and Drug Administration this week revoked its emergency authorization for the antimalarial drug and related hydroxychloroquine to be used to treat the coronavirus, saying it is unlikely to be effective, but carry "serious potential side effects." )
Bolsonaro replaced Teich with a military man who is not a doctor.
President Jair Bolsonaro at a national flag-raising ceremony on June 9 in front of the Palácio da Alvorada, in Brasilia.
President Jair Bolsonaro at a national flag-raising ceremony on June 9 in front of the Palácio da Alvorada, in Brasilia. (Adriano Machado / Reuters)
The developing disaster stresses the limits of scientific persuasion in a country where faith in institutions has been falling for years. Federal authorities are not alone in refusing to follow the experts' guidelines. Much of the population, because of poverty or apathy, is living their lives largely as before - going to the beaches, attending parties and other gatherings, riding on crowded buses.
"It was a failure," said Lígia Bahia, professor of public health at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. "We did not have enough political strength to impose another way. Only scientists, we did not succeed. There is a feeling of deep sadness that this was not noticed."
While other countries try to open up, Brazil cannot find a way to shut down
Having decided to open up despite the scientific consensus that it shouldn't, the country is following a path that until now only Sweden has deliberately tried to navigate - but in a much less tactical and methodical way. In some pockets of the country - particularly in the north - a quarter of people have developed antibodies to the disease. If herd immunity occurs in any country, it can happen first in Brazil.
An artist wears a mask that reads "Fora Bolsonaro" during the June 15 protest in Brasília.
An artist wears a mask that reads "Fora Bolsonaro" during the June 15 protest in Brasília. (Adriano Machado / Reuters)
"The question is, 'Where is this going?'" Said Theo Vos, a professor of health sciences at the University of Washington whose models are used by the White House. "It may be that in Brazil you can start reaching saturation, where so many people in the population are in contact with the virus that it starts to decrease".
He paused.
“But it comes at a huge price. It is the kind of situation that we advise governments to try to avoid.
"We have no other example of where, at the moment, it looks darker."
A city in the process of extinction is Boa Vista, in the underdeveloped and isolated Amazon state of Roraima. More than a quarter of its 277,000 residents have developed antibodies to the disease, according to Brazilian scientists who are conducting an ongoing study. The public system has stopped testing people. Promised field hospitals never materialized. The situation has become so serious that patients are being flown to Manaus, a global symbol of the damage that the virus can cause in the developing world.
Bolsonaro, channeling Trump, rejects coronavirus measures - it's just a little cold
But most of the country is far from achieving herd immunity, which occurs when between 60 and 70% of the population has been infected or exposed to a disease or vaccine and can now resist the pathogen. In early June, less than 3% of the population had anti-covid-19 antibodies. In Rio, where 5,000 people died, the rate was less than 8%.
"No end in sight," said a big headline in the O Globo newspaper last week.
When asked Machado, a scientist at the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, how much could have been avoided if his warnings were heeded, he looked hurt.
"From the point of view of public health, it is incomprehensible that more stringent measures have not been adopted," he said. "We could have prevented many of the deaths and cases and everything else that is happening in Rio de Janeiro."
"It was a missed opportunity."
Heloísa Traiano contributed to this report.
Latin America had time to prepare for the coronavirus. I couldn't stop the inevitable.
In the developing world, coronavirus is killing many more young people
Brazil's densely packed favelas are preparing for the coronavirus: "This will kill a lot of people".
Coronavirus: what you need to read
The Washington Post is providing free coronavirus coverage, including:
Updated 16 June 2020
Brazil ignored the warnings. Now, while other countries are concerned about a second wave of coronavirus, it cannot overcome the first.
While strolling on Copacabana beach on June 13, residents of Rio de Janeiro expressed concern about Brazil's efforts to combat the coronavirus pandemic. (Reuters)
In
Terrence McCoy
June 16, 2020 at 3:00 pm PDT
RIO DE JANEIRO - Weeks ago, when this seaside metropolis had registered less than 10,000 cases of the new coronavirus and there still seemed to be time, some of Brazil's most respected scientists made their last call. The country has reached a crucial moment. Cases skyrocketed. The hospital system was fluctuating in capacity. Thousands had already died.
Support our journalism. Sign up today.
So Carlos Machado, a senior scientist at the Oswaldo Cruz do Brasil Foundation, wanted the language to be strong. At the request of the Rio authorities, his team was putting together a list of recommendations. He needed to make it clear what would happen if they didn't immediately impose a complete block.
"This would result," warned the team in the early May report, "in a human catastrophe of unimaginable proportions."
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Keep reading
As the coronavirus kills indigenous people in the Amazon, the government of Brazil disappears
But the authorities never instituted a blockade. The number of cases and deaths has skyrocketed. People stopped isolating, choosing to pack the beach boardwalks on weekends. And the warning turned out to be just another exit ramp that Brazil refused to take to become the second most devastated country by coronavirus in the world.
So far, the largest country in Latin America has registered more than 888,000 cases of coronavirus and almost 44,000 deaths, the second in both cases in the United States alone. But while other countries have gone through steep curves and are now focused on preparations for a possible second wave, Brazil cannot even overcome the first.
A performance protest on June 15 in Brasilia honors Brazilians who died after contracting the new coronavirus.
A performance protest on June 15 in Brasilia honors Brazilians who died after contracting the new coronavirus. (Adriano Machado / Reuters)
What is happening here seems to be globally unique. Despite the increasing numbers, the authorities have not implemented widely successful measures in other parts of the world. There was no national blockade. No national testing campaign. No agreed plans. The expansion of health care was insufficient. Instead, the hardest-hit cities are opening their doors to shopping malls and churches, even when the country routinely publishes more than 30,000 new cases a day - five times more than Italy reported at the height of its outbreak.
ADS
Inaction has taken the country on a path that scientists call the unknown.
"We are doing something that no one else has done," said Pedro Hallal, an epidemiologist at the Federal University of Pelotas. "We are getting close to the peak of the curve and it looks like we are almost defying the virus. See Let's see how many people you can infect. We want to see how strong you are. 'So this is a poker game, and we're all in."
The slums of Brazil, neglected by the government, organize their own fight against the coronavirus
Brazil is on a path to record more than 4,000 deaths per day and surpass the United States in infections and deaths by the end of July, according to researchers at the University of Washington. But just as the pandemic is widening the similarities between the United States and Brazil - two countries the size of continents with extreme inequality and populist presidents - it is also revealing the chasm between them. Brazil does not have the largest economy in the world or one of the strongest health systems. It also lacks the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The Parque Taruma cemetery, in the city of Manaus, in the state of Amazonas.
The Parque Taruma cemetery, in the city of Manaus, in the state of Amazonas. (Bruno Kelly / Reuters)
Limited resources have always meant that Brazil had far less room for error - less room for political disagreements in the face of an outbreak - than its more developed peers. But despite the bets, the country never found unity. President Jair Bolsonaro, who continues to reject the disease and its victims, called for a policy of doing nothing. He attacked governors who defended restrictive measures as corrupt liars, invaded the crowd of supporters, defying the warnings of his advisers and threatened to have a big barbecue, despite public health recommendations.
ADS
The limits of coronavirus testing in Brazil are hiding the true dimensions of the biggest outbreak in Latin America
Bolsonaro has not trained health experts and scientists to lead a response. Instead, they were undermined and ignored, marginalized and driven out. He sacked his first health minister, Luiz Henrique Mandetta, whose sober briefings calmed anxious Brazilians after he and Mandetta faced the need for social distance. Then he pushed Mandetta's replacement, Nelson Teich, who failed to share his zeal for using chloroquine as a treatment for coronavirus. (The US Food and Drug Administration this week revoked its emergency authorization for the antimalarial drug and related hydroxychloroquine to be used to treat the coronavirus, saying it is unlikely to be effective, but carry "serious potential side effects." )
Bolsonaro replaced Teich with a military man who is not a doctor.
President Jair Bolsonaro at a national flag-raising ceremony on June 9 in front of the Palácio da Alvorada, in Brasilia.
President Jair Bolsonaro at a national flag-raising ceremony on June 9 in front of the Palácio da Alvorada, in Brasilia. (Adriano Machado / Reuters)
The developing disaster stresses the limits of scientific persuasion in a country where faith in institutions has been falling for years. Federal authorities are not alone in refusing to follow the experts' guidelines. Much of the population, because of poverty or apathy, is living their lives largely as before - going to the beaches, attending parties and other gatherings, riding on crowded buses.
ADS
"It was a failure," said Lígia Bahia, professor of public health at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. "We did not have enough political strength to impose another way. Only scientists, we did not succeed. There is a feeling of deep sadness that this was not noticed."
While other countries try to open up, Brazil cannot find a way to shut down
Having decided to open up despite the scientific consensus that it shouldn't, the country is following a path that until now only Sweden has deliberately tried to navigate - but in a much less tactical and methodical way. In some pockets of the country - particularly in the north - a quarter of people have developed antibodies to the disease. If herd immunity occurs in any country, it can happen first in Brazil.
An artist wears a mask that reads "Fora Bolsonaro" during the June 15 protest in Brasília.
An artist wears a mask that reads "Fora Bolsonaro" during the June 15 protest in Brasília. (Adriano Machado / Reuters)
"The question is, 'Where is this going?'" Said Theo Vos, a professor of health sciences at the University of Washington whose models are used by the White House. "It may be that in Brazil you can start reaching saturation, where so many people in the population are in contact with the virus that it starts to decrease".
ADS
He paused.
“But it comes at a huge price. It is the kind of situation that we advise governments to try to avoid.
"We have no other example of where, at the moment, it looks darker."
A city in the process of extinction is Boa Vista, in the underdeveloped and isolated Amazon state of Roraima. More than a quarter of its 277,000 residents have developed antibodies to the disease, according to Brazilian scientists who are conducting an ongoing study. The public system has stopped testing people. Promised field hospitals never materialized. The situation has become so serious that patients are being flown to Manaus, a global symbol of the damage that the virus can cause in the developing world.
ADS
Bolsonaro, channeling Trump, rejects coronavirus measures - it's just a little cold
But most of the country is far from achieving herd immunity, which occurs when between 60 and 70% of the population has been infected or exposed to a disease or vaccine and can now resist the pathogen. In early June, less than 3% of the population had anti-covid-19 antibodies. In Rio, where 5,000 people died, the rate was less than 8%.
"No end in sight," said a big headline in the O Globo newspaper last week.
When asked Machado, a scientist at the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, how much could have been avoided if his warnings were heeded, he looked hurt.
"From the point of view of public health, it is incomprehensible that more stringent measures have not been adopted," he said. "We could have prevented many of the deaths and cases and everything else that is happening in Rio de Janeiro."
ADS
"It was a missed opportunity."
Heloísa Traiano contributed to this report.
Latin America had time to prepare for the coronavirus. I couldn't stop the inevitable.
In the developing world, coronavirus is killing many more young people
Brazil's densely packed favelas are preparing for the coronavirus: "This will kill a lot of people".
Coronavirus: what you need to read
The Washington Post is providing free coronavirus coverage, including:
Updated 16 June 2020