stevenkesslar

Actually, the polls got it mostly right. In 2024 RCP's poll average showed a tie. The last average showed Harris winning by a whopping 0.1 %. Trump won the popular vote by 1.5 %. Well within the margin of error. In 2016 RCP's poll average showed Hillary winning by 3.2 %. She won the popular vote by 2.1 %. Again, very close. 2016 was when this stuff about the polls being wrong started. The predictions were wrong. But the polls, which measured popular vote, were very close to the actual results. One thing that has been reliable is that Trump, when he runs, will exceed what the polls say by a bit. And the reason is now well understood. He tends to attract unreliable voters who don't pay much attention to politics and like an asshole who will ............you know ................. just burn the fucking building down. Just fucking burn it down. Burn it down. Nuke it. Blow the whole fucking thing up, okay? That is what got Trump his slim winning non-majority (49.8 %) in 2024. And now the whole world is paying the price for it. I think it all confirms my point. Bernie and AOC have not come close to figuring out how you win 50.1 % of the vote in a pissed off and turned off country.

There's a new poll that says, among Democrats, the progressives are "winning". The popularity of the Bernie/AOC tour no doubt speaks to that. Polls Find Democrats Want a More Progressive Party 50 % want the Democratic Party to be "more progressive", compared to 24 % who want it to be more moderate. But here's the problem: I embody this challenge, which is kind of a fatal flaw. In 2016 I voted for Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary, even though my heart was with Bernie. In 2020 I voted for Bernie, but only because I knew Biden was going to win the primary and I wanted to send him a message to lean left. I think I was successful. He did win, and he did lean left. But somehow that didn't build a populist majority. In 2024 I just badly did not want Trump back. Even a decomposed Biden would have been way better than this horror show. So Democrats lost 2 out of 3, and Trump won 2 out of 3. It's not completely clear why the populist right has beaten the populist left - albeit barely. And it's not clear that Bernie or Young Bernie - aka AOC - are the ticket to Democrats winning, other than in very blue places. Andy Beshear can win in Kentucky. Bernie can attract crowds there, but can't win a contest for dog catcher. But Beshear puts progressive Democrats to sleep. I think Ruy Teixeira has his finger on the pulse in his endless but wise rants. He is a liberal who yearned for, and actually predicted, an Emerging Democratic Majority decades ago. He thinks Democrats need to push the economic populism of Bernie without all the unpopular "woke" stuff. Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, the most recent two term Democratic Presidents, have pretty much said the same. There's a line I heard from Arizona Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego recently that in a weird way summed it up. I have my eyes on him because he did the best job in 2024 of winning a swing state that Biden lost by a higher margin than any other swing state. Gallego said something like, "Every Latino man wants to own a big ass truck." Which is why tariffs on big ass trucks won't endear Trump to Latino men. Fight for that! Not for "Latinx". The minor mystery is why the media and even Democrats are ignoring the fact that Mexico, which for most of my life was a de facto one party state, had all the same inflation problems the US and Canada had. But somehow Mexico elected a progressive Jewish woman running for the incumbent party in a landslide. I think the core thing was that AMLO fought like hell every fucking day for the Mexican working class. And men who wanted to own big ass trucks. Even as he rode the subway. He literally put money in the hands of the poor and the working class. There's a lesson there for Democrats.

Nor would I. I think of Cohn as an important figure in Trump's life. But to extend the point, it's possible to look at Cohn as a sort of key to unlocking an understanding of Trump. It helps explain a few things. First, why Trump will fail - if the job is winning a trade war or a global power struggle with China. Cohn was great at getting away with shit, as you note. And that alone gave him a certain type of respect and notoriety. But that kind of respect doesn't build alliances. Cohn did not build NATO. He was best at attacking and conning people. Second, it helps explain why some of America is attracted to Trump. Fear and loathing, basically. Cohn played a useful role when people were scared of Communists and Evil Gays and wanted an attack dog. Thankfully, Ike was POTUS and McCarthy and Cohn were just relatively minor players. The GOP Establishment could control it as a useful side show. No such luck this time! The simple but I think key problem is that you don't form alliances by bullying people. Or at least by bullying people most of the time. China has their own problems with the same. Including the coercive aspects of Belt and Road. But it seems clear already that Trump's bullying and abdication of strategic and shared democratic interests is just sending lots of nations to China.

I don't get it. Can anyone explain this to me? One simple bumper sticker that makes some sense about what Trump is doing is this: "The whole world against China." Let's forget about the fact that Republicans, more than Democrats, championed the idea that trade and outsourcing and globalization are inherently good and fair. Since billionaires like Elon Musk make more money doing it. Let's also forget that maybe it doesn't make sense to dramatically reverse course after decades of building up China with trade and investment to now say, "Oh, geez. We fucked up." What I really don't get is this. If we assume the goal of the whole world against China is good, how does Trump plan to get there by humiliating, fucking, robbing, and raping the rest of the world? Only a pathological narcissist like Trump would decide that bullying is the way to do this. Jon Stewart recently had a good interview with Oren Cass, who as much as anyone is the intellectual promoting this idea of a new America First conservatism. Cass is smart and interesting. As Stewart noted, his first claim to fame was the 2012 Romney campaign. Wasn't Romney a big promoter of free trade and global capitalism? Cass thoughtfully ticked off all the arguments that make some sense: America carries too much of the defense burden for the world, America is getting screwed by everyone on trade, blah blah blah. Let's also forget about the fact that all these pro-globalization and pro-China arrangements were put together decades ago by a country called ................... what's it's name? Oh. America! As Cass noted, nations are allowed to change their mind every century or so. But the core of the debate is that China is rising and has to be outorganized. Many Democratic foreign policy intellectuals have also been pushing the idea that in a US v. China battle, China is likely to win simply based on size, state-funded innovation, and the hunger of a rising player. While Biden was getting feeble, lots of foreign policy geeks in his Administration pushed Trump-like ideas for organizing the world against China. Rahm Emanuel has been bragging that thanks to smart diplomats like him the US had China kind of on the ropes diplomatically as well as militarily. So now the idea is that the way to build this "everyone but China" alliance is to hurt the economies of all our allies, ask them to pony up lots more for defense, and say nice things about Putin. Only a narcissist like Trump would believe that if he just appeases Putin, Putin will forget about his strategic interest in allying with China against America and democratic institutions. After all, democracy is hardly Trump's first love, either. This seems like a good formula for helping China and Russia win by pissing off every ally we have, and hurting their economies while we insult them. What am I missing?

I understand your point, Sis. But why sully a perfectly lovely word like "prostitute" ? 😉

We have an abundance of riches in Guvs. And Newsom, Whitmer, Shapiro, or Moore, to name four, are probably more likely to be able to unify the party than Rahm or Andy. But who knows? I don't think it's possible to guess yet what voters will be in the mood for after four full years of this train wreck. But it won't be Trump.

A few heartening interviews and articles about ascendant moderate Democrats: I absolutely love every moment of that interview. Particularly the part where Rahm states that the tens of millions of Americans who were screwed by globalization or left behind have every right to be furious. Of course, when he runs for POTUS he will also argue that these Trump voters have every right to be furious at Trump for trying to take their Obamacare away in 2017. And (possibly) taking their Medicaid away in 2025 to pay for Elon Musk's tax cuts. The insolent stupid pig Donald "Judas" Trump is way more stupid than Rahm. And I love it that Rahm attacks Democrats as too weak and too woke, and Trump as a corrupt man guilty of betrayal. Trump is the Judas of America. Betraying the working class that trusted him, betraying democracy, betraying Ukraine, and empowering Putin and Xi. I still have high hopes our stupid POTUS pig will find his sorry ass in jail before his destructive and narcissistic life ends. Compared to Rahm, our handsome Kentucky country boy comes off like a pussy cat: Andy Beshear has some advice for Dems on hammering Trump over tariffs I think the idea that the Guv of Kentucky or a loud-mouthed moderate Jew from Chicago, both White men, will be the Democratic nominee of 2028 is quite a stretch. But, at the very least, they will both add to a loud debate that will move the party to the center. And refocus it on the working class and away from culture wars. Good luck, guys!

It means protection of Ukrainian men, women, and children from Putin's genocide. Something you could obviously give a flying fuck about, in your own words. Trump could give a flying fuck about it to. Nor could you give a flying fuck about the absence of democracy in Genocide World. You come here to support genocide, and the mass murder of Ukrainian men, women, and children by Genocide Men. You attack efforts by Ukraine to defend itself from genocide. You are Putin's Genocide Fan.

Talk about blaming the victim! May as well go back to Trump claiming Ukraine started the war with Russia. How long did Trump's lame ass pro-authoritarianism lie last? You fail to mention that the banning of political parties occurred in March 2022. Geez, what happened then? Let me think. Hmmmmm. Oh, that's right. GENOCIDE MAN STARTED A GENOCIDE IN UKRAINE. Your murderous leader started killing Ukrainians. Shocking how Ukraine tried to defend itself from Genocide Man, isn't it? Good luck sorting your way through that. Who knows what is true and what is lies made up by spies on one side or the other? What we do know is that Putin's whole life is about spies, deception, killing opponents, and now genocide. I can see why Ukrainians would be concerned about political parties aligned with the country and leader that started a genocide against them. If you are so concerned about democracy, why not call off the war, let Ukraine have an election to join NATO and the EU, and let Russia have an election where all the real political opponents of Putin are not all killed or jailed?

Interesting interview you posted . Who dies in the end has been relatively predictable, I think. It is the logical conclusion of who is spiraling out of control all season. In Season 1 it was clearly Armand, although Tanya was a nut case as well. She got hers in Season 2. The confusing thing about Season 3 is that both Tim and Rick seemed to be nut jobs spiraling toward their inevitable demise. So which one would it be? Mike White cleverly did both in, in a way. It's just that one was imaginary, and the other real. Which also feeds into Mike White's main theme: money rules, and corrupts. Of course the nut job with the most money would live. Despite the fact that he fantasized about killing his entire family, and almost pulled it off. It's hard to see Chelsea as a nut job spiraling out of control. But that article you posted makes the case as well as it can be made, in the words of the actor who played her. Another comment I read somewhere summed it up as a great example of how women who try to fix broken men always end up getting hurt in the end. I did feel the finale of this season was lame compared to the first two. I think its because Armand and Tanya's deaths were played for laughs. I saw it as a Gay man doing satire about The Evil Gays. And I loved it as such. This was more like a Shakespearean tragedy. Nothing wrong with that. But I like my Evil Gays better, sorry to say. We didn't even get Lochlan as the incestuous demon twink, as it turned out. Exactly WTF is an Evil Gay gonna do for comedy now? 🙄 On that note, I do have a few recommendations for Season Four. Parker Posey is the new Jennifer Coolidge, both Gay icons. So to be fair to The Evil Gays, Mike White has to bring Victoria back next season and kill her off. The easiest way is for her to dump Tim and find another rich guy. I'd suggest Saxon, who could simply take over the family business. At least Mike White could finally deliver on all the teasing about incest. 🤑🤢🤑 And maybe Lochlan could be the new Greg, who likes to watch his Mom and brother get off!

I'm happy to take a hit for being less than perfect in backing Lichtman, until he was proven wrong this time. It's off topic. But the question of why a smart guy like Lichtman was wrong this time is interesting I still think his theories make sense. Of the 11 elections he predicted in advance, Lichtman got 9 right. The 2 he was wrong on - Gore in 2000 and Harris in 2024 - were both close races. His retrospective predictions going back to the Civil War of who should have won, based on his Keys, were also wrong twice: 1876 and 1888. The 1888 race is interesting because it also involved tariffs. And the only other incumbent POTUS to lose re-election, Grover Cleveland, who then came back from the dead to win a second term four years later. Remember, the co-author of the Keys theory was a Russian expert who loved peace and democracy. Oh, the good old days! When Vlad was a good guy! Vladimir Keilis-Borok Where I really part company with Lichtman is his own very defensive analysis of why he was wrong in 2024. He's essentially arguing voters were stupid, and they fell for all kinds of disinformation by Trump. Kind of like Old Joe arguing voters didn't understand how great Bidenomics was for their pocketbook. What I like the most about his Keys is that they argue democracy matters, and voters are smart. (Not really something that has ever been proven in Genocide World, I know.) So I would argue that in 2024 voters were smart. They recoiled from inflation and high prices. So I think Lichtman got his short-term economy key wrong. Technically, there was not a recession. But poll after poll showed that people felt like there was one. Lichtman split the difference on his foreign policy keys by calling Gaza a military loss for Biden but Ukraine a military victory. That is debatable, of course. Change those two keys and it would have predicted a narrow Trump victory instead. Or, in short, history is complicated. None of this bodes well for Trump. 1. If the election were held today, Trump would do even worse on the short-term economy key. He promised to lower prices. Smart voters understand that he will instead raise prices through unpopular tariffs. 2. Americans started out unified behind Ukraine, but by 2024 were divided on partisan lines. We can thank our lying traitorous Donald "Judas" Trump for turning Republicans against Ukraine and the defense of democracy, in the US or elsewhere. But as much as Americans were gradually divided on the Ukraine War, they are already unified in their repulsion of Trump's global trade war. It is a disaster that hurts democracy, hurts capitalism, and only helps Xi and Genocide Man. 3. Democrat Cleveland won the popular vote in 1888 by defending consumers and explaining that tariffs hurt them. But he lost the electoral college, because Republican Harrison had the strong backing of pro-tariff industrialist fat cats. Sound familiar? Four years later Democrat Cleveland came back to win, still arguing - with plenty of evidence - that Republican tariffs that helped people like Elon Musk and other rich donors hurt the working class. Sound familiar? The insolent pig Trump is a stupid, stupid, stupid pig who understands neither the economy nor history.

How appropriate you defend the lying barking dog. You at least appear to be defending the lying barking dog by posting thread titles that didn't quite nail what actually happened. Okay, mea culpa. I am less than perfect. But I was not spreading lies like the lying barking dog comes here to do. It is ironic. Genocide Man is a fountain of lies. Starting with his dismissal of any notion that he kills all his political opponents in Russia. And his lie that Ukrainians he mass murders actually want to be part of Genocide World. And his lie about stealing the children of Ukraine after murdering their parents. Although I must admit George W. Bush gave Murderous Vlad a run for his money with his WMD lies. Oh, the good old days! In fairness, I think most of what you say is factually correct. Or at least debatable. Even if it is mostly intended to support genocide, and attacks on democratic institutions and alliances.

Bonus question for 25 Trump Lies And Hate and Racism points Which Fake News DEI leader, who was only respected because he was a DEI Black piece of shit loser, sold Zelenskyy the platinum mine? A. Nelson Mandela B. Desmond Tutu C. Martin Luther King D. Any other useless stupid incompetent Black appointed by Joe Biden, such as DEI Veep Kamala Harris. The lying barking dog only comes here to spew lies and hate.

Bonus question for 10 bonus Trump Lies And Hate points. Which two Brady children died of the measles? The lying barking dog only comes here to feed us lies and hate.

I don't think anything will change until the midterms. Democrats will at least take back the House, more than likely. At that point a coalition of Democrats in the House and centrists in the Senate, including ones like Collins and Murkowski, can hold sway and keep Trump in check. Depending on how bad things get, Democrats maybe can turn the tide in rural and working class areas where we supposedly have no mojo anymore. The apt comparison to me is Sherrod Brown v. JD Vance. In 2024 Vance had the wind of voter anger at inflation at his back. Even so, he was on a ticket that barely won. Meanwhile, Sherrod Brown was finally taken down by an association with a party that is supposedly out of touch. Even though he basically did everything right when it comes to the working class - except being a Democrat. MAGA populism may lose its luster to rural and working class voters when it results in inflation and recession. The lesson is: be careful what you wish for. I just spent two weeks hiking in Utah and Arizona with one of my brothers, who I will call a McCain Republican. I recall in 2016 when he explained to me that he would vote for Trump, who he thought would be good for the economy, because it "will be interesting." My response at the time was that nuclear war would be interesting, too. But that doesn't mean I'd vote for it. By 2020 he voted for Biden, arguing that even though he still thought Trump was better for the economy, he had proven himself to be a "megalomaniac." In 2024 he bit his lip and voted for Harris, for the same reason. If Trump fucks up the economy, it takes away the one thing he barely had going for him. The insolent pig is stupid and weak. The stupid pig does not even understand that he is fucking up the one thing he had going for him. What a stupid, stupid, stupid pig!

It's the inflation, stupid! What is wrong with our insolent stupid racist POTUS pig? Why can't his deformed narcissistic pig brain understand this? It is not that difficult a concept. Even the elite media and terrified Republicans can get it right. ‘The opposite of what Americans voted for’: Market turmoil causes Trump backlash With the markets in chaos as a result of Trump’s tariffs, the president is facing the most sustained criticism of his term from within the GOP. It's the inflation, stupid! What is wrong with the insolent pig's stupid brain? Can't he fathom what voters are pissed about? The crude racist insolent pig Donald "Judas" Trump has been a racist his whole life, back to his filthy racist lies about the Central Park Five. The racist pig had a brief moment when Black and especially Hispanic and Asian Americans were open to him, due to well documented anger about too many high prices and too many undocumented immigrants in their communities. There is no question that working class Hispanics in particular lifted Trump to his narrow victory in 2024. So what does the racist insolent pig do? Attack diversity, dishonor Black Americans in particular, and RAISE PRICES. He has set the entire working class back, regardless of skin color. We now have equal opportunity in America. We all have the same opportunity to have a stupid racist insolent pig as President.

The insolent traitorous pig deserves to spend the rest of his useless pig life in jail. It ain't over til it's over. The pig may end up in a sty where he belongs before he wrecks America, democracy, and capitalism.

Once a stupid and weak insolent pig, always a stupid and weak insolent pig. Oink! Oink! Oink! Stupid worthless pig! Jamie Dimon calls out the weak and stupid insolent pig for destroying everything that makes America strong. But the narcissistic insolent pig is too stupid to get it. Larry Summers calls out the weak and stupid insolent pig. He says Trump saying tariffs are good for growth and stability is like saying avoiding vaccines is good for avoiding measles. But the stupid and insolent narcissistic pig is too vain and feeble minded to understand the concept. Oink! Oink! Oink! Stupid weak useless POTUS pig! Even Pig Ball Licker Ted Cruz thinks the weak and feeble and stupid pig is doing super dumb shit that is bad for America. Texas-sixed dumb shit to contrast with the weak and stupid insolent pig's small and useless pig brain. But Donald "Judas" Trump is simply a weak and stupid traitor. All the stupid and weak insolent pig is good at is licking the balls of Master Xi, and his genocidal pit bull Vlad. The stupid and insolent pig is too feeble-minded and weak to even understand he is making China and Russia stronger, and America and our allies weaker. Oink! Oink! Oink! The stupid and weak insolent pig is an embarrassment who is destroying everything he shits and pisses on. A truly worthless pig!

Once an insolent pig, always an insolent pig. My quote of the day is Jamie Dimon, hardly a socialist, saying Trump will ruin economic alliances it took a century to build. He bankrupted all his pig-like piece of shit Trump scam companies, and now he is working on bankrupting the US. The insolent pig Donald "Judas" Trump is a traitor to all the principles America holds dear.

A sad last line. "Putin is on the wrong side of history. freedom. and human aspirations. The tragedy is that now the United States seems to have joined his side."

Nope. I'll thank you for being such a fierce advocate of democracy and human rights in Ukraine. You'll stop at nothing to save the lives of Ukrainian women and children. And whenever global experts want informed analysis on democracy, they always turn to @Moses for insight. Politico, which would not be allowed to flourish by your genocidal monster, has already been attacked by our traitorous insolent pig. No wonder why! You might read a few of their articles and learn something. They write, and think, a hell of a lot better than ChatGPT.

We Dug Into the Polls. Democrats in Congress Should Be Very Afraid. Every once in a while there is some new conventional wisdom that the media clings to, despite the fact that it is wildly untrue. In 2006, the mass media helped build the argument that home prices never go down. In 2010, they all said home prices will never go up again. (Tell THAT to pissed off Zoomers). In 2010, they were saying that austerity was in and the rich would now hide their wealth. Tell that to Donald Trump and Elon Musk. But many of these ridiculous myths are political. In 2008, the Republican Party was dead. Until 2010, it turned out. Now the Democratic party is dead. Despite actually netting one US House seat in 2024. I love it that all the right wing media that populate the MAGA universe think that they are above the MSM. Even as they act just as stupid as the MSM. They more than anyone else are celebrating the stupid idea that the Democratic Party is doomed or dead, as Trump's approval continuously ticks down. Poor things! If Trump simply ate a few House Republicans that pissed him off, Democrats would have a House majority. Poor Mike Johnson. Best not hang out in the White House kitchen, Mike. Maybe Hannibal Trump will turn some weak and fawning Republicans like you into Southern fried chickens. I get the argument that Schumer is a wimp. But I also get the Politico argument that Schumer is pretty good at one thing: winning. New York politics is a blood sport. And he always survives. It seems like the best solution to the Democrats' problem now is just that: winning. I am glad Democrats are enraged and pissed. As the article argues, it will hopefully lead to lots of good upheaval in the Democratic Party. Just like it did to Republicans after 2008. Which, by the way, WAS a real landslide. Schumer and Democrats need to let Hannibal Trump and Elon Lector go right ahead and eat lots of Republicans alive. I know, it's gross. But who ever accused Trump or Musk of having good taste? My beloved Sister In Cock @Suckrates just posted about how The Homophobic Bitch from Wyoming is whoring for Musk and pissing her own voters off by defending cuts to government programs that help Wyoming. Great! But I don't understand why they let them leave the town hall, instead of chopping them up for some exotic dinner for Musk at the White House. But they'll get there eventually, I'm sure. They're not against SNAP or Medicaid or veterans. They're just against waste, fraud, and abuse. So they just have to figure out whether the working class Republicans they will dine on are waste, fraud, or abuse. Recall that Wyoming is the state that just handed Liz Cheney her head on a silver platter a few years ago. Yummy! 🤢 So apparently they can do without the Cheney wars. But not without their government benefits. One great thing about that article is that I think it tells Democrats exactly what we need to do, at least at an abstract level. Someone like Trump needs to come along, throw the pieces of the Democratic coalition up in the air, see where they land, and then put them back together in a different way. We'll see if Democrats can do better than the insolent, stupid pig. Since he is insolent and stupid, I think we can. The thing I worry about is that Democrats may be dumber than Dorothy. And we won't figure out that we really don't need to look any further than our own back yard. The back yard of the US has a name, by the way: Mexico. In Mexico, you could run a country beset by COVIDflation, which killed incumbents all over the world. And yet you could still win in a landslide with a lefty woman of color. How? You just had to fight like hell for the working class every single fucking day, and mean it. AMLO did. The voters loved it. Not that Democrats need to worry about what Latinos think, right? Republicans mock the idea that we would help the poor or the working class by simply putting money in their hands. But, in fact, AMLO just put money in their hands. Funny how everyone likes more money, just like Elon Musk. I was a whining bitch when Democrats let those expanded child tax credits expire in 2021. But guess what? They put money in the hands of tens of millions of Black, Hispanic, and White working class families. Remember? All those people who voted for Trump because they were pissed about prices, and Biden's perceived failure to do anything about it?. If some Democrat like AMLO or Claudia comes along, the insolent pig's party will be the one that gets slaughtered. The big problem in my mind is whether the money whores in the Democratic Party will tolerate it. Because working class fighters are the Democrats who will rob from the rich and actually put money in the hands of the working class. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, two of the biggest money whores in Congress, are gone. And Trump's money whores, led by Musk, are pissing people off. It is time for Democrats to fight about who the fuck we are actually fighting for. If Democrats can not be at least as smart as Dorothy - or Claudia - it is our own damn fault.