stevenkesslar

It is a huge saving grace in my mind that Trump, a pathetic man who managed to NOT win a majority with 49.9 % of the vote, actually did win a popular vote plurality. As opposed to 2020, when he lost by 7 million votes, and whined like the cheating felon he is that he won. The polls make clear people understand that Biden, unlike Trump, is going out with grace and dignity. That will help Democrats in the long run. Mark Halperin spent months making what I think is a stupid argument. That Democrats are now going to have the biggest mental health crisis in US history. I really don't know why someone as smart as him, who got most things right, has such a huge blind spot. My guess is he has a huge axe to grind with the elite mainstream media. Which he used to be a prince of. So maybe it is lingering resentful for his own creepy vibe with women. Who knows. But I think he does think liberals are emotionally weak elitists. Meanwhile, he spent the last few weeks of the campaign saying the media was treating Trump unfairly. Like why would they go off about statements about Liz Cheney having guns pointed at her. It's not like he said he wanted to kill her! In fact, there is massive volcano of hurt and anger and rage fomenting. I am 1000 % sure of that. Where it goes and what it does, who knows? Berniecrats are pissed that Biden didn't govern like AMLO, who had the effective legislative majority Biden never had. That would have made a huge difference. There are things he could have won for Latinos, like child tax credits, or higher taxes on billionaires, that Kamala could have said she would fight like hell for. Moderates, many of whom are perfectly fine with throwing the working class under the bus, are bitching about culturally extreme positions. At least some of Black America is saying, "Okay. America just told us who we really are. We elected a rapist and liar and felon who was fired in 2020, instead of a Black female prosecutor who stands for immigrant success and law and order, not lawlessness. So this is all going to take time to work itself out. But it is already clear that a lot of the feelings will channel into resistance and will be headed Trump's way. Michael Steele, who knows something about Republicans and race, called the Trump Party the "zombie party." I think he is right. Getting 49.9 % of the vote in an environment where many incumbents are in fact losing in landslides is not a mandate, or a realignment. The nice thing about the not majority 49.9 % popular vote win is Democrats can't explain away our problems. Biden won 51.3 % of the vote in 2020. So if we want power and the ability to actually convince the working class we are fighting for them, we need at least 51 % of the vote. Probably in several elections in a row. That gives Democrats something clear to focus on. And with the wall of lava of inflation no longer racing at whoever Democrats nominate - once we have a real nomination again - it is more than likely we will have the wind at our backs, just like in 2020. I hope Trump tries to unify the country. But only the MAGA true believers like you think Trump will, @EmmetKruelty. You obviously believe America can be "unified" by being beaten into submission with cruelty and lies. It's the same basic strategy you are frothing at the mouth for in Israel. Beat them into submission. In that case, with bombs and lots of dead women and children. Why are you so cruel?

Public Narrowly Approves of Trump’s Plans; Most Are Skeptical He Will Unify the Country Sadly, what our cruel lying clown says is never reality. And, no, Bibi The Baby Killer does not try hard not to kill the tens of thousands of Palestinian women and children he has killed. He kills them wantonly, and intentionally, according to 120 countries that call him a war criminal. And you froth at the mouth for more genocide. The person I am hoping takes the Pew poll to heart is raping lying felon Donald J. Trump. Not much hope of that, I know. But one can hope. Americans clearly are hoping. Fox and CNN and Edison polls all make it clear that Trump's winning margin is people who fear he will act like a dictator, and think his legal trials should continue. The Pew poll shows a majority of people don't see him as honest, or even tempered, or someone who cares about ordinary people. But they are pissed about inflation and immigration, so they voted for him anyway. The one thing he has going for him is the hope that he will do better on the economy. That should be a massive flashing red light to any MAGA true believer who wants to deal with reality, which is not @EmmetKruelty. Trump was FIRED because of the COVID economy in 2020. Biden came in with a net +23 % approval rating in 2021. Trump can only dream about that. So if Trump thinks he has a mandate and does his tax cuts for billionaires and mass deportation, he is literally asking for a repeat of Trump 1.0. Not surprisingly, there is a slightly larger percentage of people like me who STRONGLY DISAPPROVE of Trump's policies than there are MAGA true believers like @EmmetKruelty, who STRONGLY APPROVE of Trump's policies. Hopefully Trump (or the smart Trumpers, like Susie Wiles) look at that poll and see an opportunity to reach out to the middle and actually build a majority - which 49.9 % is not. Maybe they will do immigration reform and open the door for some illegals to gain citizenship while they deport rapists and murderers, as Rand Paul already suggested. Maybe they offer expanded child tax credits to Latino and Black Dads, rather than tax cuts to White billionaires like Elon Musk, as he and Trump cut programs the working class relies on. Or maybe not. What would you guess, @EmmetKruelty? You ALWAYS tell the truth. Personally, I could give a shit if Trump reaches out to me, a Harris supporter. I don't trust him as far as I can ejaculate on a woman I am raping. Not that anyone in Trump World would ever do that! The job of Democrats is to cooperate when they can, seek to win things people care about through compromise, and resist when they must. We don't need Trump's advice on how to do that. I hope Trump reaches out to, and listens to, the voters who held their nose and voted for him. Or the union members who voted for him. Or the "Bro vote" that voted for him because Joe Rogan said so. That is Trump's huge incentive. If we assume he has a strategy, and can execute it. If we assume he is what Jared Kushner says - he never has a strategy, so he can achieve it any way he wants - he might instead do exactly what Democrats expect. Lie, divide, and ineptly try to keep his 49.9 % together. Didn't work so well in Trump 1.0, did it? I'm hoping he tries to moderate and unify, which is completely against his nature. I want him to force Democrats to get real about the working class. Bernie Sanders tried to do that in 2016 and 2020. And it failed. There are endless comments on social media about Berniecrats who agree with what Bernie just said. Biden didn't deliver for people who are working class. Or younger and struggling. Here's one of my favorites I cut and pasted: Part of the failure is due to Bernie. It was obvious in 2020, especially on Super Tuesday, that lots of moderate people had real qualms about a democratic socialist. Even if they agreed with his working class populism. In context, a lot of Bernie supporters were progressives who were behind "LatinX" and "Defund The Police". Bernie was smart enough to know that was toxic. He is an expert at being for the culturally moderate working class. His supporters? Not so much. I am one of his supporters. And in 2021 I was okay with Biden's policies on the border. Now I wish the reaction among Democrats had been much harsher. But most of the failure was due to inflation, which has taken out incumbents all over the world. The HUGE relevant exception is Mexico, where AMLO was able to get a woman elected in a landslide to succeed him. What part of that is not a lesson for Democrats? He did it by consistently fighting for, and winning for, the Mexican working class. Despite an inflationary economy. Which most Mexicans were willing to overlook. Because they had a conviction politician who fought like hell. FOR THEM. Trump is a conviction politician who fights like hell. But FOR HIMSELF. Not the US working class. My point is, it seems clear that sometimes people have to learn the hard way. And Democrats just did. So the smart thing to do is admit we fucked up, and move on. I think if Trump actually tries to be a good and unifying President this time, which is unlikely, it will help Democrats. By forcing us to get our shit together. Please, President Trump. Try to ignore everything @EmmetKruelty says and try to be a good President this time. Please try to unify America. No one believes you actually will, by nominating guys like Gaetz and Hegseth. But please try.

That's tough, since we don't even know who they are yet, really. But I'll go with two. Which is small, compared to Trump 1.0. But Trump is a small man. In terms of the content, I'm just assuming it will be more of the same lawlessness as Trump 1.0 Someone from Defense. Something about a secret deal with Putin about Ukraine, that basically throws them under the bus. And then a cover up. Pro-NATO Republican defense hawks will be pissed off about this one. At least one person will be indicted for lying to Congress and obstruction of justice. So I am just putting one as a place holder. But this is the obvious one. Wild card: Elon Musk. A nice guy, and what not. But he's the kind of guy who will think he can do whatever the fuck he wants. And might trample over various laws in the process. Lots of lawsuits against somebody by people he fires. That's assuming Trump does not throw Musk under the bus first, of course. Bonus points: Will Trump be impeached for acting like a dictator? I'll say no. He will act like a dictator, and it will drive his poll numbers down. Democrats will instead focus on organizing the working class for 2028. Hey, I can at least hope!

Wow. I qualify what I said. The first three sentences are actually true. Not everything you say is a lie. And I agree with the final statement. Let Hegseth and Gaetz get their day in front of Congress and see where it takes them. I am sure they are both just the victims of nasty women. I'm sure Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski will call out these evil women who just make shit up about sexual assault. That stuff really pisses Joni Ernst off, for some reason.

Why does the cruel clown lie and lie and lie? Why does the cruel clown lie and lie and lie? I guess Republican women who Hegseth finds attractive are just like Palestinian women and children. Who cares what they think? Duh! It is obviously their fault. Nothing to talk about here. It's an important detail that the woman didn't call the police to accuse Hegseth of anything. A nurse at a hospital called the police because a woman showed up alleging she was sexually assaulted. The police got directly involved due to the actions of a nurse at a hospital, according to the police report. I dunno. Maybe she was a Democrat with a crystal ball, who knew someday this guy would be nominated for Defense Secretary? Surely you can make up some lie about that. TRUMP2024 MAGA DENY EVERYTHING. LIE. LIE. LIE. LIE. LIE. LIE THROUGH YOUR TEETH. LIE. LIE. LIE. LIE. LIE. COME ON NOW. KEEP LYING. LIE. LIE. LIE. KEEP LYING. GOTTA KEEP IT UP. LIE. LIE. LIE. LIE. LIE. LIE. THIS IS NOT ABOUT TRUTH. THIS IS ABOUT REVENGE.

Where are all these videos and witnesses you keep making up? Where is the video you claim exists? Where are the witnesses you claim exist? You just keep opening up your mouth and spewing lies. The police did not find the woman's allegations to be false. The opposite. They sent it to the DA. I mean, yes. Spewing lies is better than spewing bombs on Palestinian women and children, which seems to excite you even more. You clearly and passionately express your lust for unleashing sexual predators, and Bibi The Baby Killer. What is up with that, cruel clown? You are consistent, though. You could give a shit about facts. You just make shit up in post after post. TRUMP2024 MAGA DENY EVERYTHING. LIE. LIE. LIE. LIE. LIE. LIE THROUGH YOUR TEETH. LIE. LIE. LIE. LIE. LIE. COME ON NOW. KEEP LYING. LIE. LIE. LIE. KEEP LYING. GOTTA KEEP IT UP. LIE. LIE. LIE. LIE. LIE. LIE. THIS IS NOT ABOUT TRUTH. THIS IS ABOUT REVENGE.

There were witnesses that spoke up that said Hegseth was pawing up women during the conference, in part because he has no self control and likes to fuck women, despite being married and having children. According to multiple witness accounts, Hegseth drugged her and took him to his room. This is all on video. Her husband said that as soon as she told him about the incident she provided the details that Hegseth took her phone and would not let her leave. The husband immediately went to Hegseth's rooms and said, "Why did you rape my wife?" Hegseth said, "Because she is a feminist bitch who told me I was inappropriate to women. The bitch deserved to be raped. I'll rape any bitch I damn well choose." This is on audio. Wow! My account is very different than the cruel clown's with no credibility. Wonder why? I just made most of that up. Just like you made up the detail that the police found NOTHING to back up the case. They actually referred it to the DA, which means the exact opposite of your lie. The DA also did not find NOTHING, as you falsely claimed. They state they did not believe they had sufficient evidence to prove his guilt in a court of law, which is of course typical in cases of sexual assault and rape. We know this because E. Jean Carroll had to work hard to convince a jury that felon Donald J. Trump is a sexual predator. But that's a fact, too. Trump is a felon, and a proven sexual predator. The multiple articles I read said Hegseth was touching women inappropriately. The articles did not cite sources for that claim. So mostly it is he said/she said, based on multiple article I've read. Every article cited known facts. Like that the police recommended the case be forwarded to the DA. No article I read said anything about a video. Where do you get this from? Truth Social? Why do you lie? Why do you just make shit up? You don't want to read that half of American Jews think you support racism, and/or apartheid, and/or genocide. But you will happily read propaganda from MAGA World that just makes shit up, with no proof whatsoever. Where is the video you claimed existed? Where is the report about the witnesses? You lied or speculated about Fox News paying this woman off, when they knew nothing about it. So it seems like this is just the cruel clown with no credibility spouting lies again. What a shocker! TRUMP2024 MAGA DENY EVERYTHING. LIE THROUGH YOUR TEETH. THIS IS NOT ABOUT UNITY OR GOVERNANCE. THIS IS ABOUT REVENGE.

He was hiding it from Fox. Maybe they don't like sexual predators anymore? Why do you lie every time you open your mouth? A cruel clown with no credibility! The police did not say the allegations were false. They obviously believed they might be true, since they turned it over to the DA. The DA decided not to prosecute because they did not feel they could prove Hegseth's guilt. Quite common in rape and sexual abuse cases. As convicted lying raping felon Trump knows. Why do you lie every time you open your mouth? A cruel clown with no credibility! Where's the video? Or is that a cruel clown lie, too? Like the sick and cruel lie that Bibi The Baby Killer tried very hard not to kill tens of thousands of Palestinian women and children before he killed them? Why do you lie every time you open your mouth? A cruel clown with no credibility! The saddest thing is that Trump most likely knew about this before finalizing his choice. Hegseth was smart enough to pay this woman off. So he was likely smart enough to tell Trump this was going to explode. Trump seems not to care. He wants his loyalist - unqualified or not, predator or not. And he is baiting, just like he did with Kavanaugh. Piss off some irritable women, and win some of the testicle vote. I can see why he likes to divide and conquer. It is the only way he wins - some of the time. But it is part of why Trump got shellacked in 2018, and lost in 2020. So he isn't the smartest guy with two testicles. Unity is just not in his playbook. It has to be domination, win or lose. TRUMP2024 MAGA LIES SEXISM RAPE

Why do you assume Democrats are as hateful and unprincipled as you are? For you, nominating a child rapist as AG is just the same as nominating a Gay married man for Treasury Secretary. I mean, frankly, your enthusiasm for Gaetz and Bessent isn't quite at the level of your euphoria for Bibi The Baby Killer. But we get it. You are definitely on board with all these guys. I thought you might at least grasp that other people are able to make principled distinctions. My bad. Why would I think that a pro-Genocide Gay Jew like you has principles, or compassion?

Interesting background. He was Executive Director of George Soros' hedge fund. And, as @EmmetKruelty pointed out, he is married to a man with two kids. I personally take some of what is happening as a victory. Even a decade ago I don't think Republicans would have confirmed any Gay Cabinet member. Half of Republicans, and most evangelicals, still oppose same sex marriage. Democrats have forced them to make it normal. Less than a decade ago, in 2018, Kevin McCarthy decided he needed to integrate the Republican House, so it wasn't just White men with a few White women. The woman's wave of 2018, brought to you by Nancy Pelosi in a mass reaction to Trump's sexism, forced Republicans to do that. So, yes, we suffered a big fucking loss. Actually, not that big, really. But it hurts that America rejected a strong leader who is a woman of color for this sexist raping felon. Regardless, I'm proud of the fact that the LGBTQ community fought like hell to make it normal to be Gay and conservative. Nothing wrong with that. Genocide, on the other hand, is a whole different discussion. Poor Emmet! Bessent is pro-tariff. I suppose that is a job requirement in the Trump Administration. But I'll be curious to see if a rich raping felon like Trump and a rich conservative hedge fund manager really want to raise prices at Walmart for Latino Moms and Dads. We know expanded child tax credits promised by Harris didn't quite close the deal. Somehow, I doubt that tariffs on Walmart crap will make working class Latinos board the Trump train. Unless Tom Homan forces them to at gunpoint, of course.

Ah. So now American Jews are vermin? Is that the latest? You have already said 40,000 dead Palestinians don't count. Why should we even believe they are dead? All we need to know is we tried very hard not to kill women and children when we planned to kill them. Now half of American Jews are a "tiny fringe," too. Vermin? Anti-Semitic? Jew haters? Oh, and 120 countries are a "tiny fringe." Who would even think Bibi is a Baby Killer? A war criminal? How funny. What a fringe thing for 120 countries to say. But I am glad you are confident that Trump is for Bibi The Baby Killer unleashing his genocide. We wouldn't want you to be alone at the slaughter. I WILL NOT READ! I WILL NOT READ! I WILL NOT READ! JUST GIVE ME MY GENOCIDE, GOD DAMN IT! TRUMP2024 MAGA UNLEASH BIBI THE BABY KILLER SILENCE THE AMERICAN JEW TINY FRINGE SILENCE THE 120 COUNTRY TINY FRINGE UNLEASH THE WAR CRIMINAL!!!

But we're not talking about 76 million people. Or inflation. We're talking about you, and your very special gift for cruelty. Can't get more pro-Genocide than saying the lives of Palestinian women and children don't matter. And we shouldn't even take them seriously. Are you now a bigot about Hitler's generals, too? Trump admires them! They are swell guys. Loyal, too. What's your problem? I'm sure you could sure use more of them in Gaza when Bibi The Baby Killer is unleashed. They'll do whatever you want. Now there's a thought. Maybe Bibi The Baby Killer could be your date. What a couple! Just make sure he doesn't have a layover in Europe. TRUMP2024 MAGA/BIBI THE BABY KILLER STARVATION RACISM APARTHEID GENOCIDE

You poor thing. I thought it would be Adolph. Is it something about you he doesn't like? At least bring one of his generals. Trump admires them. They are damn loyal. If anyone else gets out of line, they'll know what to do.

It is still very hard for me to get my mind around the fact that she used to be Gavin Newsom's wife.

I agree with that completely. That actually fits with my view of their political narcissism. Jared, the son-in-law, used Trump 1.0 to feather his nest with lots of Arab money. And China. And Israel. He does not need, or wish for, a sequel. So they are being just like Daddy. Don Jr. is in it for the money, and the glory. Just like Daddy. To the degree that we are right, it does suggests that JD Vance is an empty vessel. Or a beard, if you will. There still is no real political strategy. Just a strategy to win now, barely. In 2016 it was Pence, SCOTUS justices, and court evangelicals, who will get us just over the top. In 2024 it is court this confused idea of an anti-labor union working class party, that exists to cut taxes for billionaires and help bosses, not workers. Huh? Until I am proven wrong, I think it only worked - narrowly - because Biden and then Harris had a wall of lava coming at them, called inflation. The thing that comes closest to being a real political strategy is that Trump takes all his racism (the Central Park Five) and loathing of immigrants (who are not family members) and projects that out, successfully. Especially in 2024. He gets some Black conservative votes even as he calls Harris a dumb lazy woman, who maybe is Black because she decided to be. No bigotry there whatsoever. But people, including moderate Black and Latino and Asian people, are pissed about The Illegals. Democrats fucked up that one badly. Ask the 2012 version of Barack Obama, Deporter in Chief, who along with Bill Clinton in 1996 is the only President to win over 70 % of the Latino vote. All this does reconfirm the Trumps understand power. They are the best hucksters ever. And they have excelled at fooling some of the people some of the time. But the bill always come due, as it did in 2018 and 2020. If we are correct, their bill comes due in 2026 and 2028. But they have sure had a good long run, with lots of power and money and glory. And as much as I am confident in Democrats' ability to learn lessons, I think the whole JD Vance/Josh Hawley/working class GOP thing will give us a run for our money. Which they will get lots of, from billionaires and corporations, who want tax cuts. And the ability to do whatever the fuck they want.

I WILL NOT READ!!! I WILL NOT READ!!! I WILL NOT READ!!!! Why are about half of younger American Jews openly anti-Semitic, according to the "openly anti-Semitic" Jewish Electorate Institute? Half of younger American Jews believe you are championing racism, and/or apartheid, an/or genocide in Israel. I WILL NOT READ!!! I WILL NOT READ!!! I WILL NOT READ!!!! Why are half of younger American Jews openly anti-Semitic Jew haters? TRUMP2024 MAGA RACISM APARTHEID GENOCIDE

Can't we just be honest? I think it's Make America Rape Again The latest Harris poll asked about Cabinet nominees. Not suprisingly, with most of them the most common answer is "I don't know." Gaetz was the only one who had way more opposition (36 %) than support (28 %). Hegseth has 29 % in favor (mostly Republicans), 30 % opposed (mostly Democrats) and 42 % "I don't know." Is there anything that suggests any woman is going to come forward? I haven't read anything. Cornyn said Gaetz would have been "Kavanaugh on steroids." Including the girl he had sex with saying, "Yes. I was a child and he had sex with me." Doesn't sound like the woman who Hegseth paid off has any plans to speak up, does it? The more fruitful issue to me is that I think Republicans specifically vetted and rejected him for some leadership role at DOD in 2017. So if he was rejected for a small supporting role then, how does studying at Fox U prepare him for the leading role today? That's a good question. Or is Trump just appointing incompetent loyal bomb throwers? In the same general ballpark, Elon Musk has far and away the most people favoring him (38 %) and opposing him (37 %). That could go either way. The idea of making government more efficient is always a winner. But there is a long history of Republican CEOs who come in saying government would be so much better if it were run like their corporation. They fire people and fuck it up, like Musk did at Twitter. So I think that could end badly, too. And at the very top we have Trump, with his long record of bankruptcy and breaking shit. Including why he lost in 2020. So I hope Democrats focus on that. It's the same ballpark as W. in 2008. They fucked up the Iraq War, they fucked up Katrina, and then the mother of all fuck ups, the predatory lending/subprime global economic disaster. I could definitely see Trump 2.0 ending badly. Because he is simply so good at breaking shit.

So I will take this in a few directions you may not agree with. Basically to compliment some of the things Trump's kids have done. But I will end by pointing out just how hollow it is, if the goal is to build a working class Republican Party. Back in the day, guys like Trump had press handlers who worked the networks to position their candidates well. And they still do, of course. Like Harris and her Fox News interview. But there is something open and democratic about the idea that Trump asked his 18 year old son who he should talk to to win an election. I'm sure that is mostly hyped bullshit, like most things Trumpian. But it is partly real. I like what Charlemagne Tha God said. We don't need a Democratic Joe Rogan. Democrats need to talk to Joe Rogan. Bernie actually did, and Rogan endorsed him. So part of this is just about how the "Bro vote" wants the respect it deserves. When the deeper analysis of this election comes out, I'm really interested in finding out who these younger people who voted for Trump are, and why. And who did they listen to? In particular, who did Latinos listen to? I suspect the answer is that they listened to each other, and Trump. But they also listened to Ruben Gallego. Who organized a boxing match and used the culture he grew up in and exudes to sell himself. The exit polls say that Harris won about the same percentage of the White vote, and the same percentage of the senior vote, as Biden in 2020. I think that is because if you are a White senior who owns a home and a nice stock-based retirement account, it really is the best economy ever. If you are a young Latino who wants to buy a home, or a young Black man struggling to pay rent in a blue state, not so much. The younger and less White voters were, the more they seemed attracted to Trump in 2024. It had to be the economy, stupid. We'll know more soon. I think it's premature to say that being pissed at Biden in 2024 is the same as embracing a working class Republican coalition. What is that, anyway? Tax cuts for billionaires? I also give credit to Donald Trump, Jr. If there is an heir to the throne, he is it. And it rarely works that way. Americans may watch Dynasty, but we are not a dynastic power. The big exception is George W. Bush. But I don't think there is any reason to think MAGA would settle on Don Jr. to fill his Dad's shoes. But Don Jr. has spoken. As much as anyone, he was the one who talked his Dad into JD Vance. Plus some rich donors. He obviously sees in Vance a future for MAGA. And he may be right. I think the verdict is out. It must be interesting being a Trump kid. They are obviously loyal. But Jared was the one who used Alice In Wonderland to describe Trump. "If you don't know where you are going, there are endless ways to get there." So far, the destinations have included numerous bankruptcies, and big election defeats in 2018 and 2020. Trump does not have a strategy. So I think JD Vance is in part an attempt, including by Don Jr., to put a working class/MAGA strategy around Trump that might survive the man himself. Our beloved @EmmetKruelty champions two things above all others: ignorance, and cruelty. So I WILL NOT READ I WILL NOT READ I WILL NOT READ anything that does not fit in my purist ideology, @EmmetKruelty says. Regardless, here is an interesting piece written by some fanatic who thinks Trump = Hitler, written in one of the worst left wing pieces of shit ever printed, The Guardian. The author is named JD Vance. How Donald Trump seduced America’s white working class I think that headline is well written. The answer is, "It really didn't take much." Trump basically had to sound like them, and play to their cultural norms. Policy? Let's cut taxes for the rich, and cut Obamacare. That sure helps the working class, right? The glass half full way to view this election is that it sets up - or just continues - a great fight. Which is good for America, good for non-Whites, and ultimately maybe good for Democrats. If we are smart, and listen. Maybe JD Vance will persuade Trump to do immigration reform, rather than mass deportation. Maybe he will persuade Trump to raise taxes on billionaires, to help Latino families with child tax credits or forgivable loans to start small businesses. Maybe he will come out firmly behind labor unions, and labor union priorities. Vance did sponsor a few piecemeal progressive bills with Elizabeth Warren, to show off his working class cred. So we'll see. But I ain't holding my breath. Michael Steele, former head of the RNC, just called the Republicans a "zombie" party. I think he is right. They won a narrow victory. But I don't think there is an heir. Or an idea of what a working class Republican Party even is Trump is old, and getting older. As Steele said, if Democrats are not able to defeat a party that is hollow on the inside for the working class, especially when we no longer have the weight of inflation on our backs, it is our own damn fault. That said, Trump and Ruben Gallego both like boxing as a working class guy thing. Maybe we should just throw Barron in the ring, and see how he does. https://x.com/ChuckRocha/status/1835330173190729903

I agree with the overall picture you paint. Especially that Trump is despicable, but he understands the use of power. There is a riff going around in Black America now, at least as I can see it online, that applies: "This is who America is. Now we know." Which essentially means, "We had a chance to be our best selves. And we chose to be our worst selves." It reflects disappointment, and also anger. The polite version I can see online is that many Blacks feel racism and sexism played a role in this at the margins. That's obviously a biased opinion, which my full-on MAGA niece would not agree with. Either way, the idea that we have now done this twice, and the second time with a not really a mandate 49.9 % of the vote, says something. As it applies to Ukraine, or anything with foreign policy, the Theory of Kamala was that she is, at core, a cop and enforcer who believes in standards. So she would have been particularly good at reaching out to the world to say, "Let's have standards. Let's enforce norms together." That was certainly my hope. Then there was the argument that she would have just been seen as weak. With Trump, there is no question about weakness. The assassination attempt was probably a marginal factor in his victory. It did make him look tough as shit. So with Trump we will for sure get "America First." Which in a sense means "America Last" when it comes to whether China or the US wins the energy race. We made our bed. As Black America is saying, this is who America is. Let the Chinese figure out how to help Africa build clean energy. Putin got one thing right. A divided America is more likely to focus internally. Hence, "America First." That said, I do blame it on Republicans. Over a few decades, they went from one extreme - let's invade Iraq! - to another - let's be wobbly about NATO, which has been at the core of why we have not had World War III since 1945. I don't think I, or Democrats, have changed. I was against the Iraq War, which was an act of US aggression that backfired. I am one of those people who believe we need to defend Ukraine, which was an act of Russian aggression. I think the Democrats can build back - this was a narrow loss, not a landslide - and we will probably end up somewhere in the middle. There's a new Gallup poll that says a little more than half of Ukrainians want a quick peace deal. Including the idea of ceding territory to Russia. They must see the handwriting on the wall with Trump's win. And there also has to be a lot of war fatigue. So if this lays the groundwork for a ceasefire, that's a blessing for lots of Ukrainians and Russians. The only part of what you said that I'm not sure I agree with is the idea that Biden could have done anything that would have actually allowed Ukraine to win. Other than World War III, and bringing the US and NATO in. The political and military goal was always to help Ukraine defend itself, not join the fight. Especially with 20/20 hindsight, the US general who said in Fall 2022 that now is the time to negotiate peace, when Russia is humiliated and on its back foot, was probably right. But, even then, Russia occupied most of the parts of Ukraine they occupy now. So, in the real world, while the general may have been right, I doubt Ukrainians themselves would have wanted to make that kind of peace deal then. in other words, I think this is about the best outcome the US and Europe could hope for. Putin finally put his foot down, and said, "Enough." Again, you can blame this, too, on George W. Bush. He was the one who insisted Ukraine should be in NATO, which Merkel predicted could lead to war. She was right. How likely is it that Russia could have completely taken over Ukraine? Who knows. How likely is it that Russia came close to using a nuclear weapon? Who knows. But I don't blame Biden for exercising caution to not drive Putin to extremes. There is a lot of reporting that says when the chips were down for Russia going nuclear was under serious debate. But, taking my Democrat hat off, I see this aspect of Trump's election as kind of a blessing for Ukraine, Russia, and the world. The war seriously crippled the economy of both Russia and Ukraine. Russia is even more of a corrupt mess than it was, with a backward economy that isn't even in the global game. They had some growth by building a war machine that essentially was fueled by massive Russian death. Who wants to build that economy? Smart Russians who could fled. The world, in every poll, looks at Russia unfavorably. There is probably a reason it seems like everybody in the world wants to get into the United States illegally. What does that say about us? So this is not some big Russian military victory. It is a stalemate. NATO is stronger. If Trump wants to play Big Man Politics and cut a deal with Vlad that cements a stalemate for years or decades to come, that's mostly a blessing. I still think all the futurists who say that in 10 or 20 years the Russian Federation will collapse of its own rot, just like the Soviet Union did, are correct. None of this involves any mandate on Trump's part. The polls more or less say Americans are split on whether to help Ukraine more or less. That said, Democrats are solid about helping Ukraine defend itself. Republicans want to help Ukraine less. "America First." So if there is some ceasefire that locks in stalemate, that will make Trump more popular. Assuming he can get a deal, and make it stick. Like when Bush 41 won a spectacular military victory in the first Iraq War, it won't play much of a role in what happens to Trump in the 2026 or 2028 elections. The other sort of blessing is that it makes even clearer to Europe that the US is wobbly. And they should look to themselves for their own defense. Some diplomat who was arguing for a stronger NATO and EU defense policy pointed out that Europeans should not really have to give a shit about what people in Wisconsin do every four years. I think that is a wise attitude.

Does Trump have a mandate? It's kind of a stupid question. Because a mandate is in the eyes of the beholder. The more interesting crystal ball question to me is this: now that Trump has won, can he consolidate the win into a coalition that holds for more than one election? We know he failed to do that in 2016. What I find most interesting is that when Biden won by 7 million votes in 2020, with 51.3 % of the popular vote, Republicans said it was a stolen election. Trump will win by something like 49.8 % of the popular vote, and something like a 2.5 million vote margin, when the last votes in California are counted. On the electoral college side, it is a repeat of both 2016 and 2020. Change 200,000 votes or so in the blue wall states and it changes who the winner is. So my answer, until further notice, is that the Republican Party is just deeply unprincipled. Politicians lie and flip flop every day of the week. Voters expect it. But when they say Biden stole the 2020 election, and they have a Jubilant Patriotic Cop Beating and try to steal the election themselves, that just doesn't get swept under the rug. Even if Trump just won the popular vote, narrowly, thanks to inflation. These are deeply unprincipled people. And I don't believe a word they say about their mandate. This way of thinking actually connects very will with what VOTERS seem to have said, in terms of a Trump mandate. In a new Harris poll by Mark Penn, who was very close to correctly predicting the vote outcome, 68 % of all voters said their biggest hope for Trump 2.0 is "end inflation and price increases." Whatever mandate Trump won is focused on working class affordability. If Trump does his tariff thing, which I doubt he will, it will raise prices on Americans. If he deports every low paid farm worker, the same. Oops! Of course, Matt Gaetz is looking for a job now. Picking cherries, Matt? 😨 Most Democrats, and half of Independents, said in the latest Harris poll that their worst fear is that Trump acts like a dictator. I take that as confirming that the message got through loud and clear, and is still felt by many voters in the middle. Including many who voted for Trump, because of the economy, stupid. One other little hint in the Harris poll is that 53 % of all voters, and 55 % of Independents, want Trump's trials to continue. So you can argue that voters did give Trump a mandate to be tried by a jury of his peers, as POTUS. It won't happen, of course. I suspect this may help explain why Gaetz imploded. Senate Republicans can read polls, and know there is no mandate for lawlessness. Or sex with children. So if we are very lucky they nipped that idea of a mandate in the bud. Pod Save America: The Biden campaign had internal polling showing that Trump was going to win 400 electoral votes at the same time that they were insisting he was a strong candidate. This is the part I am most interested to learn more about, when the books are written. Because there are lots of reasons to believe that Trump may have been on his way to a much more significant electoral blowout. Many Democrats and Republicans were saying this in the Summer, around when Trump was coronated at the RNC. What did Biden know? What did Pelosi do? Is it true, as I have read repeatedly, that Obama wanted Mark Kelly to be the nominee? How could that ever have happened, legitimately, without a Democratic primary? I do think the history books are going to blame this more on Biden, and his ego, then on Harris, and her politics of joy and caution. The thing that might have worked better is if Biden had not run, and Harris fought her way through a Democratic primary. Or if they had been selfless, and choreographed a show where Harris threw Biden under the bus on immigration, and some other things. But any idea premised on Biden not having an ego was always going to fail. And it might have just made Harris look like a disloyal flip flopper. The simple explanation I keep coming back to is that Biden and Harris both had a massive wall of lava coming at them. As did every leader who presided over COVID-era inflation. So it isn't a shock that neither could outrun it. But I also buy the idea that if Biden had been on the ballot, it would be a whole lot worse. The other question I hope lots of strategists write about is: why did Mexico dodge the bullet, and elect a woman from the left-wing incumbent party in a landslide? I think the simple answer is Mexican voters felt they had a working class party that fought for the working class, and won for the working class. In the eyes of the US White working class, Biden and Harris failed to do that. 41 % approval - Bush 41 in 1992 - Incumbent party (Bush 41) loses by - 5.6 % 39 % approval - Biden in 2024 - Incumbent party (Harris) loses by -1.7 % 37 % approval - Carter in 1980 - Incumbent party (Carter) loses by -9.7 % I posted that whole list of 19 elections since Truman on a different thread. What is surprising is how incredibly simple this is. There are 19 races. In 18 out of 19, the incumbent party won the popular vote if the incumbent President had an approval rating of 50 % or higher. The one exception was Nixon in 1960, who lost the popular vote by - 0.2 % The other two caveats are that Gore in 2000 and Clinton in 2016 also won the popular vote, on the tailwinds of an incumbent with over 50 % approval, but also lost the electoral college. So Presidents with 50 % approval or higher will always see their party win, with the one big caveat being "the third term curse." A sitting President with a 50%+ approval rating is a proven ticket to victory, so far. Unless it is a popular President who can't run again. Then all bets are off. In all 8 examples where the incumbent President had an approval rating under 50 %, the incumbent party lost. The highest approval rating of these 8 was Gerald Ford in 1975, with 44 % approval. So all eight incumbents in these losing elections were well below 50 % approval. And it is clear that the degree of unpopularity influenced the vote outcome. Ford lost by -1.9 %. Stevenson, carrying the baggage of Truman's 30 % approval rating, lost by - 10.9 % The two candidates who outperformed in relative terms were Humphrey in 1968, and Harris in 2024. Humphrey lost by -0.7 %, and Harris by -1.7 %. Of the four incumbents with approval ratings under 40 %, three of four led to wipeouts: Truman had 30 % approval, and Stevenson in 1952 lost by -10.9 %. Carter had 37 % approval, and Carter in 1980 lost by -9.7 %. W. had an epic low approval of 26 %, and McCain lost in 2008 by - 7.2 %. Biden had 39 % approval, but Harris did way better than the other three, losing by "only" -1.7 % What the numbers suggest is that incumbency helps. But only when the incumbent is popular, and only when they are the ballot themselves. Incumbency hurts when they are unpopular. And in 1968 and 2024 Democrats very likely cut their losses by switching out unpopular incumbents. I think the two examples on either side of Biden 2024 help answer the question of whether Trump has a mandate. And how this is likely to play out. Reagan 1980 had as big a mandate as you can get. In addition to a crushing national victory, Republicans won 12 Senate seats, 34 House seats, and 4 Governorships. That all got translated into a legislative agenda that had liberalism and Big Government on the ropes for decades. Clinton 1992 was an election quite like 2024, in this sense. It was the original "it's the economy, stupid" election, thanks to Jim Carville. Like in 2024, voters took an unpopular incumbent out. But in 1992 Democrats won no Senate seats. And Republicans, the losing party, won 9 House seats. Clinton had a rocky first two years, with lots of big failures, like Hillarycare and Gays In The Military. Mandate? Not so much. The fact that the down ballot results in 1992 actually favored Republicans, slightly, could be taken as a harbinger of the 1994 Republican blowout that was to come. That said, Clinton licked his wounds and moved to the center and did manage to consolidate his 1992 victory. This time Democrats lost 4 Senate seats, they will likely gain 1 or 2 House seats (the final two uncalled California races), and they lost no Governor races. That's much more like 1992 than 1980. It's bad news that Democrats had no chance to hold 3 Senate seats in red states, as it turned out. It's good news that Democrats won 4 of 5 Senate seats in swing states that voted for Trump. It's also good news if Democrats learn lessons from winners like Ruben Gallego, among others. About how to appeal to the working class by being like them, and promising economic populism. The scariest news to Democrats is this. Of the 8 out of 19 Presidential elections since Truman that incumbent parties lost due to unpopular incumbent Presidents, the winning party was able to consolidate their victory in 5 out of those 8 elections: Eisenhower in 1952, Nixon in 1972, Reagan in 1980, Clinton in 1992, Obama in 2008. The two times the winning party failed to consolidate were Carter in 1976, and Biden in 2020. In both cases, inflation was the big nail in the coffin. So unless inflation comes roaring back, history does suggest that Republicans, now that they are in power, have a very good chance of consolidating their victory. That said, we have seen this movie before. Trump won in 2016 despite the fact that Obama had a 52 % approval rating, and Clinton won the popular vote by a 2.2 % margin. Given that Biden's approval rating in 2024 was 13 % lower than Obama's in 2016, it certainly makes sense that Trump would do better in 2024 than 2016. Many Republicans have said that if they had a nominee with fewer liabilities, they really would have won in a landslide. We'll never know. The other close example to Trump on a mandate is George W. Bush in 2004. He claimed a 50.7 % win gave him a mandate. He did more unpopular things, as his Iraq War became more and more unpopular as well. That "mandate" did not end well. If I had to bet, I'd bet that Trump will again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, and fuck it up. He really doesn't seem to have a strategy, other than retribution and rage. Tax cuts for billionaires, tariffs that raise prices at Walmart, and cutting programs that help the working class may be what Elon Musk wants. But it was not Trump's mandate. I think Democrats who are popular Governors who want to be President in 2028 - and there are many of them - are smart to sit back and give Trump enough rope to hang himself with his own mandate.

I WILL NOT READ! I WILL NOT READ! MANY AMERICAN JEWS ARE JEW HATERS! IF ALMOST HALF OF AMERICAN JEWS THINK MY POSITIONS ARE RACIST, OR SUPPORTING GENOCIDE, OR SUPPORTING APARTHED, JUST BECAUSE I THINK PALESTINIANS HAVE NO RIGHT TO OBJECT TO THE MASS SLAUGHTER OF THEIR WOMEN AND CHILDREN, THAT IS BECAUSE JEWS ARE ANTI-SEMITIC. You sure do have a twisted idea of facts, don't ya honey? Meanwhile, fact still is that Bibi The Baby Killer is now a war criminal in 120 countries. Give genocide a chance! It does seem like that is the idea. Mass slaughter and ethnic cleansing now, and we'll see where we get later. At least we'll have fewer Palestinians. Majority support for Bibi The Baby Killer's woman and child killing genocide machine is gradually falling apart, most slowly among Republicans. But you must be thrilled @EmmetKruely. More reinforcements are on the way, thanks to Trump, to kill Palestinian women and children. Woo hoo! Let's celebrate. How many women and children can we kill without trying to kill them, do ya think? 41 % of Democrats, a plurality, now want to decrease military aid to Israel. 35 % of Independents, a plurality, want to decrease military aid to Israel. So the debate as of today among Democrats, had Harris won (she will lose by about 1.5 %, a narrow loss), would be do we cut military aid, or keep it the same? Republicans are all over the map. 30 % want to increase military aid, 30 % want to keep it the same, 24 % want to cut it. What we know for a fact is that, across the board, support for military aid to Israel keeps going down among Democrats, and Independents, and Republicans. Nobody likes genocide. Especially when we are paying for it. A very good round of genocide should get Democrats to 50 % support for cutting military aid to Israel. Frankly, I am happy to let this be Trump's problem. It is clear that Israel keeps electing their Baby Killer, who wants his genocide. Trump doesn't, But he can't tell Bibi The Baby Killer what to do. Saudi Arabia and all the others can't and won't make peace with Bibi The Baby Killer's woman and child killing genocide machine. So Trump can spin his wheels for four years, as Bibi The Baby Killer gets his way and quietly continues with his ethnic cleansing while he buys time. At some point he will die, and be replaced by someone worse. The sad and pathetic thing about you is you really have no idea that Hamas is winning. You are so short-sighted and close-minded and bigoted that you just can not grasp what they are doing. But facts are facts. They have figured out how to gradually transform the global perception of Israel into Genocide Jewland. All over the word, the leader of Genocide Jewland is seen as a murderous war criminal, who starves innocent woman and children to death. Yes, Hamas is a sadistic terrorist organization willing to see countless more innocent Palestinians and Jews die. Duh! But you are so bigoted that you really can't see how they are winning. That's how small and distorting your hatreds are. You are letting Hamas win the war, and you can't even see it. They have not been rooted out, as they were supposed to be in a month or a year of whatever. And they won't be rooted out. Their ideology of hate is growing, thanks to Genocide Jewland. All over the world, people look at Israel and now see Genocide Jewland, and Bibi The Baby Killer. You are so caught up in your enthusiasm for Bibi The Baby Killer that you just don't see it. Ehud Barak does. He's a man of peace. But he is also the personification of the Israeli military. His motivation is he is smart enough to see what Hamas is gradually doing. You don't. Poor hateful thing! After four more years of genocide and unrelenting ethnic cleansing and torture and starvation, we'll see where we are. For now, I am happy to let it be Trump's problem. Enjoy your genocide while it lasts.

You always manage to think of something that trashes The Gays, and endorses the rapey, slimey, "just put your dick in the bitch and shut her the fuck up" gross underbelly of Trump and Trumpism. Why are you so cruel? Hey, at least you are not a war criminal, though.

Sadly, yes. I took it as an encouraging sign that there are still adults in the room. Or, more precisely, in the Republican caucus in the US Senate. Sen. Cornyn said it would be "Kavanaugh on steroids." Ya think? Thanks, Republicans, for sparing us of that.

And as of now Democrat Derek Tram is leading by 400 votes in CA-41, which would be a Democratic pickup. Incumbent Republican John Duarte is leading by 350 votes in the other uncalled race, CA-13. But his winning margin went from 3000 votes one day to 2000 votes the next day 350 votes yesterday. At least so far the trend with the final ballots being counted is they favor Democrats. There are an estimated 5000 votes left to count. The outcome in 2022 was 222 Republicans, 213 Democrats. At the time, the idea was that Democrats escaped a red wave. At the very least, even if Democrats lose both of these California races, we did no worse than in 2022. We might pick up a few seats. Some Republican landslide! It's still a very big defeat. But as it has sunk in, I hope that is good in the long run. Either Democrats have to embrace economic populism and the multi-ethnic working class, or they continue losing. It is not really a difficult choice. What I think we know for sure is that in 2026 and 2028 Democrats won't have a massive wall of lava coming at them, called inflation and higher costs.

BLAH BLAH BLAH I WILL NOT READ! I WILL NOT READ! IT CAN NOT BE TRUE THAT ALMOST HALF OF YOUNGER AMERICAN JEWS THINK I SUPPORT RACISM, APARTHEID, AND GENOCIDE. I WILL NOT READ THAT! MY MIND IS CLOSED IT CAN NOT BE TRUE THAT FOMER IDF HEAD AND PM BARAK SAYS BIBI THE BABY KILLER NEEDS TO CONTINUE THE WAR AND SLAUGHTER BECAUSE HE IS EMPOWEWRED BY RACIST ALLIES! I WILL NOT READ THAT. PALESTINIAN LIFE HAS NO VALUE. IT IS ANTi-SEMITIC TO WHINE ABOUT HOW BIBI THE BABY KILLER SLAUGHETERED TENS OF THOUSANDS OF WOMEN AND CHILDREN. THESE PEOPLE ARE NOT TO BE BELIEVED WHEN THEY COMPAIN ABOUT BEING KILLED. AND EVEN IF THEY WERE SLAUGHTERED, WE TRIED VERY HARD NOT TO KILL THEM. MY MIND IS CLOSED. I WILL NOT READ! ANYONE WHO DOES NOT SUPPORT BIBI THE BABY KILLER IS ANTI-SEMITIC. ICC issues arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu over war crimes in Gaza BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN 120 COUNTRIES BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN UNITED KINGDOM BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN THE NETHERLANDS BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN BRAZIL BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN NIGERIA BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN FINLAND BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN AUSTRALIA BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN COSTA RICA BIBI THE BABY KILLER: WAR CRIMINAL IN KOREA ALL OVER THE WORLD, BIBI THE BABY KILLER IS A WAR CRIMINAL THE WHOLE WORLD IS ANTI-SEMITIC! HOW SMART TO HAVE A MURDEROUS LEADER THAT THE WHOLE WORLD SEES AS WAR CRIMINAL! I WILL NOT READ! I WILL NOT READ! TRUMP2024 MAGA STARVE WOMEN AND CHILDREN KILL WOMEN AND CHILDREN ETHNIC CLEANSING FOR WOMEN AND CHILDREN