stevenkesslar

That is where it gets interesting. And, again, why everybody wants to live in the US and nobody wants to live in piece of shit Russia. We have freedom, you don't. And the free press is more free than ever. It is funny that a pro-Trump asshole like Elon Musk, oligarch wannabe, can buy Twitter, ruin it, be an asshole, say whatever stupid shit he wants, and then say we don't have freedom in America. What a stupid fuck. Honestly, I wish we could send Elon Musk to Russia, so Genocide Man could turn him into meat. Or poison him. Genocide Man excels at killing his own people. Elon will want too much power. And Genocide Man will feed him to his dog. I mean, Musk is really stupider than Putin. He owns X, is the richest man in the world, says stupid shit constantly, and somehow thinks America is run by a Deep State. Except for Elon Musk, I guess. It is just stupid shit, endlessly. That's what freedom of speech means, I guess. So we Americans have very different views of whether we should help Ukraine more. MAGA folk who watch Tucker Carson think we help Ukraine too much. Did I mention Tucker excels at sucking Vlad's cock, in public? I watch MSNBC and former Republican Joe Scarborough and think we don't help Ukraine enough. There is no doubt that Genocide Man wants Trump to win. Even though he is the world's worst liar when he says he loves Kamala. Nobody believes Putin. Nobody wants to live in his murderous rotting shit hole. Will Genocide Man win his bet on Trump today? Check back with me later. But I think Genocide Man has already lost the whole fucking ball game. He is a stupid murdering genocidal freak. He has turned ALL of America against him. There are people who would rather see America dump Ukraine. There are people who want America to help Ukraine more. But we all agree. NATO is good. Russia is bad. We simply can not wait for your rotten murderous corrupt Federation to collapse, just like the Soviet Union did. You deserve it. You are genocidal freaks. You deserve to have the whole fucking world against you. Which you do. You deserve it. Believe me, America has been there and done that. Forget about Japan. That was before I was born, after Japan attacked us. They are now our ally. Get in the fucking 21st Century, you genocidal freak. In the century we actually live in, we had our own disaster, Iraq, and our own stupid dumb shit, W, who led the charge into Iraq. So, yeah, America was dumb as fuck. I think W and Iraq is one of the causes of Trump. I don't like forever wars, either. But this is not 2008. This is 2024. And nobody in the whole fucking world likes or respects Genocide Man, or wants to live in Genocide World. Everyone wants out of Genocide World. Genocide World has a huge shortage of people to work in the Russian tech industry, and even the Russian defense industry. Good paying jobs. But Genocide Man is sending Russians to be processed into meat, so everybody who is smart just can't wait to escape Genocide World. Meanwhile, everybody desperate for freedom and prosperity wants into America. Do you understand the difference, Genocide freak? Freedom wins. You lose. You deserve it. Even the most MAGA and Trump of folks don't want to live in Russia. They don't like Russia. They don't want to be you.

And a BIG shoe drops. The smartest Democrats who have been most freaked out about the early vote numbers cite one name, and one name only .............. Jon Ralston. he's the dean of Nevada politics, who like Ann Selzer has gotten it right every time in a state where statewide elections are always close. Ralston has been beating the drum for weeks that there has been a flood of Republican early votes. And that looks bad for Democrats. Like Karl Rove, he says it's very hard to reach conclusions because we just don't know what the new normal of voting is. But he now says Democrats will catch up. So the dean of Nevada politics who always gets it right says Kamala Harris and Jacky Rosen will win in Nevada. If Ralston is right - one last time, like he always is - it's already one strike against Team Halperin. I like this game.

So you just know I gotta go long on this one. Here is an interesting psychobabble answer to your question. If Trump wins, Mark Halperin has been arguing for months we will have the "biggest mental health crisis" in US history. It's a serious statement. He thinks tens of millions of Americans really won't understand how this could happen. They won't feel they recognize the country they live in. I disagree with that prognosis. If Trump wins, it will be like 2016 to 2020 on steroids. There will be enormous Democratic resistance, starting immediately. I'll make it worse, then better. I've watched Halperin's 2Way channel regularly for months. The good thing about it is he has brought both Harris and Trump supporters together to talk in respectful, informative ways every day. That is why I watch it. Halperin clearly feels empathy for both sides. For Harris supporters like me, he thinks what we miss is that lots of Trump supporters simply think the Left has gone too far. And lots of Trump supporters deeply feel the Establishment, meaning most institutions and definitely government, is broken and needs to be disrupted. I don't actually miss that. I get all that. Harris is a California liberal who embodies all these fears and is seen as too far Left. Regardless of who wins, those are real problems we need to fix. And if Trump wins, that will be why. So these are things Democrats better pay attention to, even if we win. What really surprised me is Halperin and his R (Sean Spicer) and D (Dan Turrentine) co-hosts picked who they think will win the House and Senate. All three agree Republicans will take the House. All three agreed Republicans will end up with 53 to 54 Senate seats. The latter really surprised me. Turrentine is a lifelong moderate Democrat who has worked for Jared Polis, Joe Manchin, Hillary Clinton. So is he no Sandernista. But that might give him a clearer and more centrist view of what is really happening. When I heard that, I immediately thought, "Oh my God! Am I blind? Am I really missing something?" Or, all three of them could just be wrong. So now it gets better. I do think Harris will win. I've cited Lichtman, who is never wrong. The stock market has performed exactly like it does in years when the incumbent party wins. The poll averages have Harris slightly ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin, and only 0.3 % behind in Pennsylvania. So the polls are tied, as well as unreliable. But there is no bad news for Harris in what I just said. And Halperin is one of a chorus saying Trump's last few weeks were awful. He sounded just like the unhinged menace Harris has painted him to be. So the most interesting thing at the moment is Ann Selzer. She was the canary in the coal mine in 2016 and 2020. Both times she said the country is more for Trump than the polls are telling us. Both times she was right. Now she is saying the exact opposite. Older women in particular are sick of it, and abortion is a huge driver. If Selzer is the canary in the coal mine a third time in a row, it means the surprise tonight will be that the polls modeled themselves too much on 2016 and 2020, for fear of underestimating Trump again. And Harris and Democrats will do better than expected. Selzer's poll shows 2 Democrats in Iowa CD 1 and 3 clobbering their incumbent Republican opponents in what Cook Political Report call toss ups. So if Selzer is right, as she almost always is (she was wrong about Kerry in 2004, but only by a few points) it is going to be a surprisingly good night for Democrats. Democrats will take the House. Basically 2022 redux, but slightly better for Democrats. I watched several interviews yesterday of the data geeks who understand the early vote stuff inside out. That is the best argument Republicans are making now. The early vote is a wave of Republicans voting in record numbers. But the Democratic numbers guys - Tom Bonier, Joe Trippi - say Republicans simply got their core voters to vote early. They have no turnout machine. Meanwhile, Democrats have a massive turnout machine. And we got new voters to vote early. And women are voting is record numbers, way more than men. So the Democrats who understand the math best say Elon Musk, who is screaming that MAGA is crushing it, is an ignorant fool who has no fucking idea what he is talking about. I definitely buy that. They predict a red mirage (which we already have in the early vote numbers Musk cites) followed by a blue wave. If Team Halperin is missing something, it boils down to one word: resistance. To Halperin's credit, he wants to play nice and be empathetic to both sides. In part, I suspect, because his business model depends on it. What he may be missing, that Selzer is picking up, is deep principled bipartisan resistance. Kamala Harris PLUS Liz Cheney. And rage that this whole Trump thing is just NOT okay. If what Selzer is saying is true, MAGA is about to get flushed down the toilet by America. And Team Halperin just missed it. Or, they saw it and discounted it. Halperin actually had a great interview with Ann Selzer a few days ago. But he obviously doesn't quite believe her. Neither, by the way, does Newt Gingrich. How shocking is THAT, LOL? I'll add Michael Moore one last time. He speaks for me. He has been a pretty good canary in the coal mine, too. He is not even pretending to base his prediction on polls. He has a deep gut feeling for the working class, and resistance movements. His Spidey sense tells him we are going to see a wave of women. And it will boil down to RESISTANCE. So I will let him say it in his own moving words below. The part I am quoting is at 7:00 Hope Moore and Selzer are again the canaries in the coal mine, who understand the heart of America more than most.

The issue is nobody believes you. And nobody supports your defense of genocide and Genocide Man. I wonder whether you believe your own defense of genocide. Or whether you are even a person. Can I call you Genocide Bot? Russian disinformation accelerates toward the election You do know you are failing, right? The only reason you have not failed in Ukraine yet is you've had to reorient your shitty corrupt economy around turning 700,000 Russians into meat. The wrecked economy and cost on Russian human life only accelerates all the internal forces in the Federation that will lead it to collapse. You are a shit hole. No one wants to be you. Or to live in your shit hole. Meanwhile, Americans are having a good old food fight. We're voting more than ever. So we may be divided. But we are definitely democratic, and strong. Check back with me tomorrow. I was reading an old article by Stan Greenberg, the pollster, about how Democrats should deal with inflation and cost of living issues, And I ran across this: Again, that article is from 2022, when higher food prices and gas prices were peaking. So Greenberg was discussing ideas of what Democrats should do about it. The article isn't about foreign policy. For whatever reason, he includes NATO and Russia in his survey. And it is telling. What are Americans warmest to? NATO. What are Americans ice cold to? Russia. We despise Genocide Man. Go ahead and turn 1 million more Russians into meat, if you are committed to genocide and murder and killing Russians. It is why the whole world thinks Russia is a shit hole. Putin did this. Genocide Man is why NATO is stronger than ever. And why we despise Putin, and his genocide and failing attacks on democracy. He is as stupid as he is genocidal. What a miserable mess he has made. Thank you for making the US tougher and stronger. Please hurry up and disintegrate, as the Russian Federation is destined to do. Just like the Soviet Union, which actually was a great nation compared to Putin's miserable and murderous Genocide World. No one believes you. No one respects you. No one wants to be you. You are failing.

That's a no brainer. Did you watch the video above? What I will do, and what happens if Trump wins, is actually the same reason Harris will win. "STAND UP." Oh! So sorry! I forgot. You can't do that in Genocide World. You have no idea what it means. You just come here to defend genocide. Full List of Putin Critics Who Have Died in Mysterious Circumstances In Ukraine, a city grieves for a family killed in a deadly Russian missile attack.

That's my point. Genocide freak. You just don't get it, do you? For all our flaws, the United States is a democratic capitalist country that is resilient and strong. In one day we will elect our first Black Asian American female President, a symbol of the strong and prosperous multi-racial liberal capitalist democracy we are becoming. What was the Soviet Union? A failed state. It collapsed of its own rot. What are YOU becoming? GENOCIDE WORLD. A piece of shit country with an economy that processes its own people into meat and invades the neighbor you claim to love. And slaughters the women and children you consider your own. Genocide freak. What do you have? A sadistic mass murdering authoritarian leader nobody wants to be ruled by. No freedom. Oppose Genocide Man and you get prison or poison. And you come here to deny genocide, and pretend it does not exist. Genocide freak. I'm grateful to your sadistic mass murdering awful piece of shit leader. You are stuck with Putin. You are stuck with how he is trashing your economy and destroying your wealth and prestige and processing his own people into meat. He has been a big part of the noise and conflict in America. A Republican, Bob Mueller, proved this and documented the interference of Russia in our elections. That which does not kill us makes us stronger. So what happened? More people vote than ever. Democracy, while in conflict, is alive and well. We are having a free and passionate democratic fight about who we want to be, and what we stand for. Putin, a sadistic corrupt piece of shit monster, has made America stronger. And forced us to fight for what we want to be. Sadly, he has created a genocide in Ukraine. Monster! That is who he is. That is what he does. You are stuck with your monster and rot and death.. We're winning, you're losing. Because your leader is Genocide Man, and he is turning your country into Genocide World. Nobody wants to be you. Nobody wants to live in your hell hole. Seemingly everybody wants to live here. In the United States of America. Yes, it creates some problems. But tomorrow we will elect the child of immigrants, a symbol of the multi-racial liberal democratic society we have fought for, and are becoming. Eat your heart out, genocide freak.

Now be nice. Here's Tim again, interviewing Ann Selzer. Please .... no comments about Tim's choice of hair products. It gets better. It sounds like two of four Iowa districts may flip from red to blue. One by a large margin. Unless her polls are just totally off. My take away is this may be a classic case of "the action is in the reaction." As Selzer notes, a six week abortion ban dropped in Iowa this Summer. She thinks that is one factor driving a shift. It certainly fits with the broader narrative that reaction against abortion bans has been underrated. This also reminds me of Super Tuesday 2020. There was really no logical explanation for how Biden's broken down campaign won in states like Minnesota and Massachusetts where he had no campaign, and sitting US Senators were his opponents. But sometimes organic waves just happen. We'll see soon. The other interesting question is whether any of this is a canary in the coal mine for other states. Selzer gives the smart professional answer: who knows? This is about Iowa. But Texas and Florida are the other two states that come to mind. Texas had an abortion ban drop in 2022. Florida's dropped this year. There's really nothing in either state's polling that suggests some wave of women who are reacting to abortion bans are about to deliver a shock Senate win. But it would explain why both Senate races seem to be at least a bit closer than they should be. In 2018 when Beto was hot, the final RCP polling average showed Cruz leading by 6.8 points. The closest Beto was in any individual poll was 3 points behind. The final results were Beto lost by 2.6 %, significantly outperforming the polls. Right now the three most recent polls in Texas all show Cruz 4 points ahead. It seems nuts to think there will be a blue wave in Texas, kind of like in 2018. Even though it fell short of taking out Cruz. If anything Texas and Florida have been ground zero for Latinos moving to Trump. At the very least, this suggests that while there may be long term movement of Latinos to the GOP, or Trump, in Texas and Florida, there are also powerful countertrends in both states.

Absolutely. The potential good news here is that if Harris wins Iowa, not only does it put the election in the bag for her. It throws a curve ball at all the election denialism that is already baked into the cake if it is a close race. This poll was the canary in the coal mine in 2016. I remember that well. It tore into the narrative about Hillary cruising to victory. This poll tears into the narrative that it is a close race. There have been concerns raised here that I am drinking Mark Halperin's Kool Aid. I'm wondering whether Halperin is drinking the Kool Aid. He recently trashed his media colleagues for buying David Plouffe's assertion that late breaking voters were going to Harris by 10 points or more. He quoted Chris LaMAGA or whatever his name is in Trump World saying all Harris has now is a losing "bullshit machine." Halperin has been asserting that Harris's path to victory in the Sunbelt is seemingly closed, perhaps. While he cities "insiders" on both sides, he mostly sounds like he is a voice for Trumpers these days. I'll start a different post on this, because it's both interesting and funny, I think. Halperin has been going off about how unfair the media has been to Trump recently. Like how they handled the "shooting Liz Cheney" thing. Aw. Poor Donald Trump! Don't ya hate how everybody bullies him? Then again, there is growing evidence that lots of women don't like male bullies. Iowa confirms that Independents, especially women Independents, may be breaking for Harris in a huge way - enough to maybe create a shock win. Here's happy Gay boy Tim Miller talking about the new NYT/Siena poll, which is another established heavy lifter. They show Harris has a 16 point lead among people deciding in the last few days. Which explains why Harris leads in North Carolina and Georgia in their poll. By the way, @Pete1111, we found the secret weapon to tone Tim down. Daylight savings time!

Proof of concept, as we discussed. Sam Stein literally had to tell Tim Miller to take it down from here to here. Gotta love out happy Gay boy!

A few really important parts of this: This is double bad news for Trump. He is losing women. And women are the ones who are most likely to vote. More evidence that the wave of women is growing, and can not be stopped.

I'm not denying any facts whatsoever. You are. The problem with the US right now is that everybody wants to get IN. The problem with Genocide World is that everyone wants to get OUT. Genocide World is a rotting murderous piece of shit country that is going to collapse. You are a shit hole. Sorry. You don't have freedom. You have a shit economy. You turn your people into meat. These are just facts. Yes, too many poor people desperately want into the US because it means freedom and prosperity and hope. Even first generation immigrants, Mexican Americans, are pissed off that it is just TOO MANY PEOPLE who want IN. Meanwhile, anyone with talent in Russia wants OUT. Because they don't want to be processed into meat by Genocide Man. These are just facts. Genocide Man has to get Crazy Kim to send his people over to be processed into meat. And we know that Crazy Kim is not sending his best. 😉 So you can trash wealthy Americans all you want. Because it is what undemocratic authoritarian Russia WILL NEVER HAVE. Eat your heart out, you genocide freak. Your piece of shit country is going to collapse. And you deserve it. Because you are the land of genocide, rot, and death. The problem in the US is there are far too many rich Americans in states like where I live, California, who are fabulously wealthy because right now, as The Economist said, the US economy is the envy of the world. So even liberal Democrats like Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom are timid about raising taxes to help the working class. So some of the US White working class is having a nice little failing peasant's revolt with Trump. The Democrats could solve this problem by raising taxes on the rich to help the working class. Trump won't do it because he is a lying selfish piece of shit. Harris is afraid to do it, too, because her donors are Silicon Valley fat cats. So this is a problem. And you are right. When she wins, and if she has the votes to raise taxes on billionaires, some of these rich Americans who have little or no real loyalty to America will leave. Boo hoo! These are facts. Meanwhile. you live in Genocide World. You can't even think of having a peasant's revolt, because Putin would kill them all. All he has to do is send them to the front to be processed into meat. These are facts. Everyone knows it. You have no democracy. You have no freedom. Even your murderous sadist leader is afraid of having to force his own people into going to the front to be slaughtered. And your economy, which is running out of wealth, now depends completely on the slaughter of Russians. You have to kill or injure something like 700,000 Russians just to keep the piece of shit Russian economy from collapsing. So eat your heart out, genocide freak. Go ahead and try to convince me that it is a problem that some rich Americans, who are free to do what they want, want to go live in Antigua or San Miguel or wherever. Because they sure as fuck don't even want to set foot in your worthless shit hole of a country, which is drenched in blood and going to collapse. You deserve it, genocide freak. Eat your heart out that you will never have our wealth, our power, our freedom, or our prestige. Because your sadistic leader is Genocide Man.

I am shocked! What really surprised me is that most wealthy Americans want to move to either Russia, or North Korea. Who knew? 😲 Apparently there is some fear that if they move to Russia their money will be confiscated by Genocide Man, who will send them to the front to be processed into meat. And while the wealthy don't give a shit about America, or democracy, they seem to have a hang up about being slaughtered. So the #1 destination turns out to be North Korea. Apparently the food is better. And it is easier to bribe Rocket Man so he does not send you to Genocide World to be processed into meat. Apparently there is a growing shortage of Russians who want to be processed into meat by Genocide Man. Who knew? Mark Cuban will be the first to go. He hates strong women who vote for Trump. I bet he'll love living in Kim World. Maybe with a visa to Genocide World for fun and kicks? If you like strong men, it is double the fun. Now, back to reality. It sounds like these wealthy families have all sorts of nonpolitical reasons to move to the Caribbean, or someplace warm and friendly. If there is a main "political" reason, the article says several times it is a trend that started with COVID. Although part of it is "political unrest", which makes sense. On the face of it, I would reach two conclusions, both of which are weak. First, this is another indicator of a Harris victory. It does not make sense to me that billionaires want to leave right before a massive tax cut hog feed that will blow up the deficit, just like Trump did in his first term. Harris, on the other hand, will raise their taxes to help the working class, if she has the votes. That said, it also makes sense that the ultra-rich have so much wealth that they just care more about political instability. And they don't want four more years of crazy. Second, it reinforces the idea that a lot of wealthy Americans are not particularly loyal to America. Working class factory workers who vote for Trump don't have the option of buying a mansion in Antigua and investing a quarter million to get citizenship. It's yet one more data point that if the Democratic Party wants to win, broadly, they need to dump "LatinX" and what are seen as extreme "culture war" positions and refocus on economic populism. Tax the rich! It is a wildly popular policy. And they are more interested in moving to Antigua than staying around and fighting for the American values - LIBERAL DEMOCRACY AND CAPITALISM - they say they stand for. Which is one of the very best things about Genocide World. Rich people there can argue that we need democracy. And we need Genocide Man to pay more taxes. They don't have to worry about which country to move to. Putin will simply choose a prison cell or toxic poison for them.

I mostly agree. First, this is something only political junkies care about. Most people are not following polls. At Thanksgiving last year we somehow got into a discussion about what website we scan first every morning. I answered "Politico." One of my relatives, who is a very smart professor who cares about politics, said, "Ugh!" That said, when Biden resigned I was the person she texted to find out what it meant. I said Harris will take his place, and it will be better. She does not follow polls. Most people don't want to ride the pollercoaster. Second, I think what most pollsters say consistently is that the trend does matter. So if this measures a trend where voters are generally improving their rating of how Harris would manage the economy, which is what seems to have happened gradually, that matters. Third, I think Harris has won already, simply because Lichtman has already predicted it. The most critical I can be of him is he was wrong in 2000, when it came down to a handful of votes in one state. So if it comes down to a handful of votes in one state, like Pennsylvania, all bets are off. I will repost this chart I have been mostly using for the stock market all year. The bullish stock market also seems to predict a Harris victory, as Politico just noted. This chart looks exactly like what the market looks like in a year when the incumbent party wins. In fact, the S & P has done even better than the average year when the incumbent party wins. If the incumbent party were going to lose, the S& P should be limping along right now. Like in an average year when the incumbent party loses, right now S & P returns should be negative. Not +20 %. So if I had to pick some tool to predict who will win, I would NOT pick polls. I'd pick Lichtman, and the stock market. But the trend does seem to be that Harris is looked on more favorably, and as a better manager of the economy, compared to when she jumped in the race. All of these are good signs for Kamala.

I thought this was interesting and encouraging for Harris supporters: Harris pushes economy as Trump’s advantage shrinks That article links to another Politico article that states this: That later statement is in line with what David Plouffe says, based on supposedly better insider private polls. Their efforts have paid off, in that the gap on the economy has narrowed. That said, the overwhelming takeaway from almost every poll I have seen is that the economy and immigration hurt Harris, and abortion and concerns about democracy help her. There's been a lot of debate about whether Harris is screwing up by talking too much about "Trump unhinged" versus talking about the economy. While it is both/and rather than either/or, I fall in the camp that thinks the following. If the election is about the economy, Trump wins. If the election is about Trump, Trump loses. Right now, today, the election is about the unhinged stuff Trump is saying. The fact that he made such stupid unforced errors just as people who have been tuned out are tuning in reinforces just how unhinged he is. I'd rather have undecided voters thinking about what Trump meant when he said something about somebody shooting Liz Cheney in the face. That said, it pleased me that a recent poll asked voters what specific policy ideas would make you more likely to support a candidate. In that poll, Harris's expanded child tax credits were #2 on the list of most popular ideas that would make voters more likely to vote for a candidate. With #1 being Trump's idea of drilling more oil and gas and making America more energy independent. Some of her specific ideas seem to be getting through to the working class people, including Trump voters, those child tax credits helped when inflation was raging. Clintonista strategist Doug Sosnik said earlier this year, when Biden was the apparent nominee, that if this election is about the economy, Trump probably wins. He cited the huge percentage of voters (most of whom are Trump supporters) who say we're on the wrong track. He said if it is about whether people want more Trump crazy, Trump loses. When asked by Bill Kristol which was more likely, Sosnik guessed the election would be about whether people want four more years of crazy. I think it's turned out Sosnik was right. If so, Harris wins.

He and Putin are wedded for life. There's two views of the Putin/Trump thing, both of which could be true, The more conspiratorial version is that Trump is an asset developed decades ago. It makes sense that Putin, or Russian intelligence more broadly, would always be looking for opportunities to cultivate loyalties with rich and powerful Americans. Especially ones who might need a supportive and kind Russian hand to help them out of ...................... bankruptcy. All the help and business deals with Russians seem to have always been kept within the boundaries of laws. Putin would of course want that, too. A disgraced felon in jail is a bit less helpful. The Fiona Hill theory is less conspiratorial. At core, it's a theory about rich guys who just want to be oligarchs and authoritarians. And will do whatever they have to in order to achieve their goals. I can see why good MAGA folk, who are perfectly happy following authoritarian leaders and aren't particularly concerned about democratic standards or Western military alliances or Ukraine, would see this as a plus. Why not play nice with authoritarians and prevent World War 3? Seeing as how playing nice with Hitler definitely prevented World War 2. 🤔 It could be some of both. Whatever loyalties were being built with Putin's merry band of oligarchs and allies decades ago probably had nothing to do with a plan to make Trump President one day. But whether there was a plan in Putin's mind or not, those Russian investments sure paid off. Now Putin and Trump can just be partners in crimes. Literally. Of course, the whole idea is that if they do it, it's not a crime. That's been taken care of in Russia long ago, at least. The US? Check back with me next week. So, yeah, Trump will be the gift that keeps giving to Putin as long as he is alive.

This will be interesting to watch when Trump loses. There are no doubt a lot of complicated things involved in the rotten Trump empire. But what this business reporter says makes sense. Trump should sell part of his shares to address his huge debt problems. And the minute he does that he undermines faith in DJT. Which is already built on a house of cards, and funded in the past by Putin cronies. What's a lying fascist wannabe felon gonna do? When he loses, DJT will be in big trouble. Which makes me think he would want to sell at the front end of it, which will just fuel more selling. Then again, Putin ain't going nowhere. There has to be a way he can bail out Trump again, you'd think.

Harris campaign: Late-deciding voters are ‘breaking by double digits’ for the VP Trump doubles down on violent rhetoric in final stretch Wonder if these two headlines could possibly be related?

What may be "fake" is the polls. Meaning Trump overperformed his poll numbers in 2016 and 2020 - the latter of which was impacted by COVID and Democrats having a weak or non-existent ground game. Then in 2022 - including in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan - all these Democrats outperformed their polls. Democratic Governors won supposedly close races by big margins. I would not rely on how the polls will go this time. Exactly. Both favor Democrats right now. Those were the two things that filled up Morning Joe today. 1) Why do we want a President who threatens to kill his political opponents? 2) Turnout of women is strong, and looks good for Harris. It's early vote, and past voting patterns have definitely changed post-COVID. So everybody smart (e.g. Karl Rove) is saying we don't know for sure. But I think what is becoming clearer by the day is a wall of women is voting in droves. And men are not measuring up. https://x.com/Cernovich/status/1852038704468234747 Again, nobody knows for sure what this means. But these are facts, not right wing bullshit. They are scared. And smart people who know what it takes to win have been saying for months that Trump's ground game is a delusional mess. I'll keep repeating this, because the growing evidence suggests my instinct is right. Much of my life experience could be summarized this way: if you want to win, organize women. While Trump has been flapping his lips about dogs and cats and why women need him to protect them, Harris has been organizing hard. Trump has organized women against him. Harris has organized women for her. We'll know soon. But at this point the wave of women can't be changed. And it looks like it will be powerful.

Aw! Poor thing! The sexist raping rights removing lying loser is gonna lose! Aw! No red wave. No blue wave. A wave of women is forming to take the sexist raping rights removing lying loser down. They don't like him, or want him. Who knew? Aw! Poor things! The male fascism loving say dumb shit "fuck the bitch" testosterone vote is just so impotent! Real men don't vote! They point their guns at Liz Cheney and shoot. Disloyal bitch! Who ever would have guessed their ground game sucked? Just dumb men with lots of testicles saying offensive shit all the time! How could a dumb fuck fascist wannabe like Trump even see this coming? https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1851717440998453751

Trump on Liz Cheney: ‘Let’s put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her’ Murderous sick fuck. Murderous sick fuck. Murderous sick fuck. Murderous sick fuck. Murderous sick fuck. Murderous sick fuck. Murderous sick fuck. Murderous sick fuck. Murderous sick fuck. Murderous sick fuck. Murderous sick fuck. Murderous sick fuck. Murderous sick fuck. Murderous sick fuck. Murderous sick fuck. Murderous sick fuck. Let's see how moral worm Mike Johnson tries to explain this one away. Trump was really talking about law and order, and how the cops he sicked his fascist mob on love him, I'm sure.

Or maybe they are. I'm guessing that investors - they might be better be called traders - are manipulating the hell out of DJT. After plummeting during the Summer and September as Harris rose, it probably had to have a rebound, anyway. So this had to be related to optimism that Trump would win the Presidency as he "won" October. But I'm betting shrewd traders, not necessarily big or rich traders, tended to buy at the bottom. And the MAGA true believers saw the stock rising and bought in. As the stock plummets again, the true believers are likely the ones who bought at the top, and will take the biggest falls. And speaking of stocks: The stock market’s surprising bet on who will win the presidency I talk about Lichtman a lot, since his prediction system has been nearly perfect. But this chart has been my one of cheat sheets for the stock market all year. I have been following it closely: What's interesting and unique about that chart is that it's the only one I've ever seen that distinguishes between years when the incumbent party wins, and years when it does not. I found that somewhere earlier this year. And by the time I found it, like maybe around March, the market had already gone up a lot. So all year long I've been taking that as an indicator that leaned toward Biden and then Harris winning. In other words, if this were a typical year when the incumbent party was going to lose, the market would have performed poorly for the first part of the year. It did not. Beyond that, that chart has been very accurate in predicting what happened during the year - if you assume Democrats, the incumbent party - will win. The most important thing it suggested is that 2024 was going to be a good stock market year. Which it has been As legendary trader Jim Roppel has been saying, "MAX LONG". That in and of itself is NOT an indictment of the Biden/Harris economy. That chart says if this is an average year when the Democrats (incumbent party) win we'll have a market dip in April and May. We had a dip in April, which typically would be the biggest dip of a good year, and was not that bad. It shows a dip in July. We had a big dip, even bigger than the Spring dip. Other than those small variations, 2024 has performed almost precisely like one would expect in a year the incumbent party - Democrats - win. I have taken this to indicate two things all year. I want to be long in the stock market, which I have been. And Biden, or now Harris, will win. Which I think she will. There ain't nothing wrong with this picture for a Democrat who wants to make money. Does the recent shit show of DJT - either the stock or the racist felon - indicate bad things to come for MAGA true believers? I dunno. But I would not say the picture looks particularly good for MAGA. Whether we are talking about the stock, or the unhinged felon.

Aspiring fascists want to know. What is the special quality real leaders like Trump and Putin have? Here's my best guesses: 1. Tolerance for genocide, as long as it makes you and your wannabe oligarch pals rich. 2. Tolerance for oligarchy, as long as it makes you rich. 3. A certain zest for stealing elections. 4. A certain zest for breaking the bones of cops who stand in the way of stealing an election. 5. Just being a felon, plain and simple. It's a tough choice, really. Anybody know?

Truth Social’s stock price is soaring. It’s not just Trump supporters buying in. Note that article is from March. But I doubt much has changed. I think the easy question is who is NOT buying it: It's a perfect metaphor for the election, really. Sure, maybe it is crazy and stupid. But as long as it might make you a little money, so what?

The key word there is "base". His base is not 48 % of the electorate. That's the number many people, like Plouffe, argue is his ceiling. That includes a lot of people who will NOT eat shit for Trump. But they do feel the economy has been shit under Biden. I think that does matter. If Harris wins, the good play is to be graceful. Especially to people who were on the edge of the knife and tilted Trump's way because they just feel the last four years sucked. If Trump wins, I know for sure my anger goes deeper. We're at rage. I don't think these feelings are unique to me. Funny timing reading your post. Just got off the phone with a friend I have not spoken with in a long time. He is a Democrat who lives in SF and deeply dislikes the homelessness and open air drug dealing. At one point a while back he did say that if Trump promised to clean up the homelessness, and had what sounded like a real plan, he would consider voting for Trump. I assumed that was just venting, and he did not mean it. So his brief take on the election was like yours and mine. Horror and shock that Trump could even be a serious candidate. So you have some big chunk of America that is at Defcon 1 who feels like this is a fucking nightmare. And it is war. I think this favors Harris. One truism I have heard a lot this year is that people really dislike choosing between Biden and Trump. So whichever party manages to give people some other choice will win. That favors Harris. Another truism I have heard a lot this year is that whoever this election is about will lose. Right now the election is about Trump, and four more years of crazy, I think. Even all this stuff about how the polls are wrong and Trump will of course win, maybe by a landslide, makes it about Trump. I think that actually favors Harris. You're for sure right that I am trying to convince myself Harris will win. Stated differently, I am NOT a Republican. Right now it really does seem to boil down to two words that start with T: testicles, and testosterone. Trump definitely has the testicle vote. I mean real men. Not women, not pussies, not Gays, not transgender freaks. Real men who just know we are going to CRUSH that idiot bitch's ass. She's toast. We will CRUSH the idiot bitch. She is an idiot bitch loser, and we will fucking CRUSH her. Get it? That's cocky, pun intended. But other than the word "bitch", all that was said at the racism rally at MSG. Some guy yelled out she's an idiot, and Trump turned it into a riff. They may as well all have stood up and grabbed their balls. More fun than raising your hand and chanting "Heil Hitler." I have convinced myself that it will be sweet when these cocky guys lose. It's the equivalent of bragging about your cock size, and how big your loads are. But it turns out you are actually impotent. Poor things. Fuck em. They deserve it. The reality is that nobody knows. I think we can stop with Karl Rove and David Axelrod. They won four elections in a row. They do have testicles, I imagine. But they are proud of their brains. And they are saying they do not have a fucking clue. Rove, and other data freaks, are saying anyone reaching conclusions based on higher Republican vote by mail is probably wrong. Because it will take several cycles of Republicans embracing vote by mail to know what the new normal is. So the guys with the big balls are just talking shit. It will be deeply emotionally satisfying when their testicles get them absolutely nowhere. Dems see signs for optimism in gender gap in early vote Across battlegrounds, there is a 10-point gender gap in early voting so far, according to a POLITICO analysis. Lichtman has the prediction system I have the most faith in, given his track record. But on this one I will go with Michael Moore. He's got testicles, too. But on this issue I would rather view him as the crazy aunt in the attic who somehow is always right. In 2016 he was ranting crazy shit about how pissed off people in Michigan would vote for Trump. In 2022 he pissed all over the idea of the red wave. Now his line is, "Do you actually know any women? Have you talked to them about how they feel?" Again, if Rove and Axelrod don't know, nobody knows. Jen O'Malley Dillon, who is testicle-free, is wisely saying this is gonna be awful close folks. If you give the tiniest shit, better go vote. Happily, I did yesterday. Usually I mail it in. But this time I took it to City Hall just to make sure. What sucks for me is I had to vote for Raul Ruiz, my Democratic incumbent House member who will win in a landslide. If I lived a mile away I could have voted for Will Rollins. I did send him as much money as I could. It has been clear for months that Trump's poll numbers depend on a lot of people who usually don't vote, or have never voted. Many of whom are men. So he is pushing the testicle vote hard. But what if it turns out real men don't vote? That article says there is no evidence yet that real men who talk shit and cum hard and often are actually turning out to vote for Trump in droves. I have read several times over the years that Obama's win in 2012 was absolutely grounded in epic Black voting. Obama won Independents in 2008 and lost them in 2012. So something had to offset losses among Whites and Independents. What I did not know is that Team Romney went into Election Day thinking they had it in the bag. The theory of the case, stated recently by people like Steve Schmidt who would know, was that in 2012 Obama could not possibly exceed the Black vote he got in 2008. But he did. And that election was not particularly close. There is a lot of talk about the Black vote right now, and how that doesn't look good for Harris. But I think what it boils down to in 2024 is that Harris needs women to win. She needs a wave of women. And if she gets that, she wins. And it certainly looks like it is possible. I've said mildly patronizing shit for years to some of the best women organizers around, who are friends, about how organizing women is different than organizing men. Especially if they have kids, and it involves their kids. Women would slit their wrists if they needed to protect their children. They will certainly go vote. So if Harris needs suburban women to go vote, that very fact in itself favors her. This is theory. But it squares with reality. In 2022 the poll average said Whitmer would win by 5 points. The last Trafalgar poll, which favors Republicans, said her race was tied. Whitmer won by 10.5 %. It was a wall of women. Same pattern in Wisconsin. Evers was supposed to lose, narrowly. He won by 3.5 %. Same pattern in Pennsylvania. Shapiro was supposed to win by 10. He won by 15. Maybe what matters more in 2024 is all this testicle vote that is just yearning to have Trump in power. Or maybe real men are all talk, and they don't vote. They didn't perform in 2022. Poor things. Impotent! That was right after inflation peaked at 10 %. I think it is just a fact that in Fall 2022 the average American, especially the average working class American, had lost ground in the last few years due to inflation. Now they have gained at least a little ground since 2020, thanks to low inflation and rising wages and low unemployment. The misery index (inflation + unemployment) was 7.8 % when Biden took over. It is now 6.5 %. The economy is better now. I am trying to convince myself Harris will win. And I think it is working. I really do think Harris will win. And it will be because of a wave of women. Too soon to know. But it seems to be happening right now.