stevenkesslar

Golly gosh darn @Kostik. It is so much worse than you think. I think the problem is you don't understand how evil the US is. And how corrupt democracy is. The problem is you live in Genocide World, where everyone is kind and loving. Except to the women they rape, and they children they kill. And The Gays, of course. So you have no idea of how horrific and evil it is in the US. Pressure on Boeing grows as Buttigieg says the company needs to cooperate with investigations You can see the real problem already. Homosexuals! Now, a smart guy like you might ask, Why would they put perverts and sex criminals in charge of an investigation? And why would they be investigating Boeing anyway, when they're killing people who tell the truth about Boeing, who Hunter Biden owns half of. (Vlad owns the other half, of course. Vlad owns everything, and kills anyone who fucks with him.) Here's how diabolically fiendish the evil US is. This is all a head fake. Just like when Vlad said he really hopes Biden wins. Everyone knows Pervert Pete is a sex criminal. But thanks to all the do gooders here we can't just kill the son of a bitch, like he is Navalny or something. We have to be more devious. So we put him in charge of an investigation to figure out who is gonna say bad stuff about Boeing. That gives us our hit list, see? I mean, it's not like we can just kill everyone who writes something negative about Vlad, or something. We have to get a hit list. Smoke 'em out. Then we kill 'em. Just watch. That's what is really going on. All those people who say bad things about Boeing are going to be taken out. Now, you may be thinking, But what about the sex pervert who heads the Dept. of Transportation? Vlad wouldn't stand for this kind of moral outrage. See, that's what is different in Genocide World. Vlad is too nice. Too honest. We use these moral degenerates like Pervert Pete to make an example. He'll get on a plane some day, with a few hundreds other passengers, and it will just mysteriously fall out of the sky. Yeah, innocent people die. So what? That's how we do things here. Cruel, I know. But the US ain't like Genocide World.

Oh. Do you mean facts? What did they do to you? How did facts abuse you? You poor thing! A new poll just out reinforces what I have been saying about third party voters. It is even better for Biden than I thought. This polls shows Trump leading 40/38, a two point margin just like the RCP average. Here's what else it says: If 15 % of Biden or Trump voters change their mind, that could go either way. But with Stein and West, it actually can't. In this poll, 2 % of voters back Stein, and 2 % back West. If many of them shift - which they are saying they are open to doing - guess where they will go? You think Stein and West voters will vote for Trump? That alone would give Biden a small lead, if that is the only thing that changes. If there is a recession that is about to hit, that is the main thing that could change people's mind negatively against Biden. But, as I documented above, the momentum is going the other way. People are feeling better, not worse, about their personal financial situation. The good news for Biden is it's almost impossible for more people to say his age is a concern. That is now baked into the cake. Meanwhile, 57 % of voters say they approve of Trump's Presidency. So we know at least 7 % of Americans that NEVER approved of Trump's Presidency FOR ONE DAY while he was POTUS are open to being reminded about why the fired Trump is the first place. They will be reminded. Sorry for being abusive by stating facts, @EmmetK.

Because every poll does not show Trump leading Biden. Two recent polls showed Biden leading Trump. But, facts aside, if the polls make you feel better, good for you. I would not bet on them in March of an election year, though. Remember all those "red wave" polls from 2022? But let's talk about why Trump has a small lead over Biden now, in March 2024. First, the cult hates Biden. So start with hate and this fact-free cultish environment. That's your base. Second, a lot of people who see Trump for the dangerous crook he is are pissed at Biden: inflation, Gaza, etc. So they say I won't vote. Or I will vote for RFK, or Stein, or West. That's lowering Biden's numbers overall, and in four or five way polls. The thing we know from every single election - every single one - is that won't hold. That's a fact. Which means it does not permeate the cult brain. Third, as @floridarob said, people get serious walking into the voting booths. Or, as that guy Trump complimented said - what's his name? You know, that guy Trump really admired. That guy Trump sent a note to, complimenting? Shit? Who is it? Trump really likes him Oh, Allan Lichtman That's right. Trump admires him. Lichtman says when people get serious, they vote based on fundamentals. That's why Carter was leading Reagan in the polls. Until he lost in a landslide. The misery index was sky high in 1980. Now it is lower than when America fired Trump. That's how Biden is going to win in November, @EmmetK. You heard it here first. I'm going to explain it. But, please. Stop reading, @EmmetK. Stop reading now. These are facts. The cult brain feels abused by facts. And I don't want to abuse you with facts. That first "better off" poll is what people told Mark Penn in a recent Harvard Harris poll. You can see this question is polled a lot, and the findings are reliable. And there is a trend. Here's an important fact. Penn's polls always skew toward Trump. His latest poll showed Trump beating Biden by 6. Emerson shows Biden beating Trump by 1. The RCP average right now shows Trump beating Biden by 2. So we're using a data set that skews a bit toward Trump. The second set of numbers are how people actually voted in 2020, based on how they felt about their personal financial situation. So the math is simple. If everything stays the same, and nothing changes, Biden wins. Here's the math. If this is like 2020, the 45 % of people who feel worse off will break 77/20 for Trump. They want change. Just like in 2020 the "worse off" crowd voted overwhelmingly for Biden. So Trump wins that slice overwhelmingly. So if Trump gets 77 % of that chunk it's 35 %. With the better off crowd, the opposite. Trump only wins 26 % of those votes. That's 8 %. In 2020, people who said they are about the same voted 34 % for Trump. That's 9 % of that chunk. So if nothing changes and this is like 2020, Trump gets 35 + 8 + 9. That's 52 %. Trump wins. Woo hoo! But wait! I said Biden wins. Why? Because people are feeling better about their financial situation every month. That's extremely clear. When inflation peaked, almost 2 in 3 Americans said they felt worse off than a year before. Because they were right. Inflation sucks. That's down to 45 %. If nothing changes and the declining trend stays the same, it looks about like this in November. 38 % of people, a plurality, will say they feel worse off than a year ago (meaning last November). The additional 7 % who shift off "worse off" split between "better off" and "the same". This is what has been happening consistently since Summer 2022. So in November 2024 the numbers are 38 % worse off, 32 % better off, 30 % the same. Do the math. If Trump gets 77 % of the worse off, that's 29.3 %. If he gets 26 % of the better off, that's 8.3 %. If he gets 34 % of the "feels the same" crowd, that's 10.2 %. Add the numbers up and it's 48 %. Do the same for Biden and it's 52 %. Biden wins. Woo hoo! Could this happen? Fuck yeah! It DID happen in 2020. Of course, some people will vote for RFK and Stein and West. But these numbers are very similar to what happened in 2020. It's not cultish fact denial to think that people who voted for Biden in 2020 will do so again. Including people who view Biden as the lesser of evils, because they can't stand Trump. Even among Democrats, polls show up to half of Democrats are voting for Biden as a vote against Trump. Will the economy keep improving? Anyone making money in the stock market? Why? Anyone notice inflation is 3 %? Anyone think interest rates are going to go down, not up? (Except in Genocide World, aka Russia, where interest rates are sky high and going up.) Biden will remind people that the misery index is LOWER than when they fired Trump in 2020. And he'll remind people that Trump is for Genocide Guy, aka Putin. I know I am going heavy on facts, which are abusive to the cult brain. But these are really important facts. There's two things in particular in that Harvard/Harris poll that are very bad news for Trump. The first is that 57 % of people in that poll say they approve of Trump's Presidency. That's horrible news for Trump. Because it has nothing to do with reality. During every single day from 2017 to 2021, Trump never get 50 % approval. Let alone 57 %. So he is unquestionably set for a fall. Everything people don't like about Joe Biden is in their face every day. Like his age. What people hear about Trump right now is, "He won". That's about to change. Trump cut taxes for the rich, which blew up the deficit. Trump tried to take your health care protections away. Trump sent his thugs to the Capitol to break the bones of cops when you fired him. Murders spiked when Trump was President. Murders are down 10 % in 2023. Fentanyl deaths spiked under Trump. Trump is a crook. Trump is a rapist. Trump is a liar. Trump is a loser. These are all facts. If this is as good as it gets for Trump, while he is on a roll with his primary victories, it ain't nowhere good enough. If this is as bad as it gets for Biden, that's good news to me. Remember that in early 1980 Carter was beating Reagan. In 1983 Mondale was beating Reagan. The even more devastating thing for Trump is that Harvard/Harris poll actually says the youngest voters, under 25, support Trump over Biden by a 20 point margin. Penn is telling us voters aged 19-24 will vote for Trump over Biden 55/34. That is what is baked into Trump's 6 % lead over Biden. Meanwhile, this Economist poll says voters aged 18 to 29 will vote for Biden 55 to 32. And they show a dead heat, 44/44. Biden won "the youth vote" almost 2 to 1 in 2020. Which seems more likely? I think this one is a no brainer. Many older 2020 Trump voters have died. The youngest voters voting for the first time may not like Biden. But do we really believe they want Trump to win, so he can ban abortion and make climate change denial federal policy? Don't bet on that. I have no idea why these polls showing Trump leading have such unbelievable numbers about how young voters love Trump. They don't. This may be one where polling methodology with young voters who don't answer phone calls is skewing reality. I don't know. I do know Gen Z is not Trump's base. They despise him. If I made one questionable assumption, it is this. You can see that in 2020 almost 2 in 3 voters who felt the same as four years ago voted for Biden. That is unprecedented. In every other election since 2000, where we have exit polls, voters who felt the same as four years ago tended to split their vote about 50/50. So why did 65 % of this group vote for Biden in 2020? And will they do it again? That's the most interesting question about the 2024 election. And no one knows. But we do know they voted for Biden in 2020. Often because they could not bring themselves to vote for Trump. So when Nikki Haley says, and the polls confirm, that she would have attracted voters that don't really want either Biden or Trump, she is probably right. I think this is why the cult just fucked up fatally by choosing the crooked person a majority of America will not vote for, just like in 2020. The cult brain doesn't care about these things. The cult brain wants to chant the name of one dead American. And make America great again by pushing all kinds of lies and blame and hate and negativity. The cult is led by a lying crooked loser. The cult is not going to win.

He took no civics class, obviously. That's the problem. Actually, it's worse. His civics class is being taught by Donald Trump and his Cult. You get extra credit for lies, and breaking the bones of cops to destroy democracy. Needless to say, it is tragic. Much is being lost. First, @EmmetK, I'll state again that your own chart shows that accidental drug deaths soared under Trump, and are slowing under Biden. Fentanyl trafficking across the border soared under Trump. So it is a bipartisan problem. Trump let it fester and get worse and worse. Your own facts prove it. But, hey. Why bother with facts? Seemingly, Sen, Katie Britt ignored the civics classes, too. And the facts. She must have gone to Trump U. Sex trafficking survivor slams Britt for inaccurate story in SOTU response Sure, go ahead. Get it all wrong, and blame it on Biden. That's a Cult thing to do. It's his fault. Here's what's being lost by this asinine, uncivil behavior: actually doing something. Two of the most significant bills to protect women from sex trafficking are the Violence Against Women's Act, and the Trafficking Victims Protection Act. I think they are viewed as the landmark and cornerstone protections that have both been very effective. Both depended on strong bipartisan support to actually do something. The Violence Against Women Act was introduced in the House by Dem. Rep. Jack Brooks. But Biden did the heavy lifting in the Senate, and appropriately takes credit for it. The TVPA is acknowledged by most advocates as the single most effective piece of legislation in cracking down on sex trafficking, where it has been fully funded and enforced. That was liberal Democratic Sen. Paul Wellstone and conservative Republican Sen Sam Brownback. Very bipartisan. Sen. Britt went to the Mexican border, met the trafficking victim above, and then did nothing - other than attack Biden for something that did not happen in the US, and happened while W. was President. By comparison, Sen. Brownback went to Nepal, met victims of trafficking, was moved to do something, and joined Wellstone on bipartisan action. Perhaps that is why Brownback had a distinguished career as both a US Senator and Governor. Much like Bob Graham of Florida, who with Sandra Day O'Connor was an advocate for teaching civics in school. All very honorable public servants. Too bad they weren't able to help Sen. Britt. She could use some civics. And some facts. The fun fact about the TVPA for those who knew and loved Paul and his wife Sheila is that she was one of the forces behind the bill. She organized the wives of other Senators she was friends with, both Democrat and Republican, to get their husbands to make protecting women from sex trafficking a priority. That is civics. That is actually doing something. But don't ask me. Ask Republican Ken Buck, who just announced he's had enough of the bullshit and won't even serve out the rest of his term:

Exactly. Cult thinking. Murder declined in every major city in America in 2023, based on that chart I posted twice now. But instead of caring about fewer murders - thousands less murders - you just want to engage in cult blame. It doesn't matter to you that murders spiked - by the thousands - under Trump. Your duty is to worship him. The cult does not know the names of the thousands who were murdered during Trump's murder spike. The cult does not care about them, or their families, or their stories. The cult does not care about the tens of thousands of innocent women and children being killed in Ukraine by the genocidal monster Trump wants you to bow down to. All the cult wants to do is engage in its ritualistic blame and hatred of Joe Biden.

Facts, anyone? Your own chart: In 2017, when Trump was President, accidental drug deaths soared to all time highs. In 2018, when Trump was President, accidental drug deaths soared to new all time highs. in 2019, when Trump was President, accidental drug deaths soared to even higher all time highs. In 2020, when the American public ended the failed Presidency of this incompetent crook, accidental drug deaths soared by 20,000 deaths in one year alone, to a staggering new all time high. Altogether, based on your own chart, which only goes to 2020, accidental drug deaths soared under the crooked incompetent Trump at an unprecedented pace. Under Biden, they are rising at a much slower pace, and may be starting to flatten out. You are literally blaming the horrific rise in deaths under Trump on Biden. Literally. All your chart does is extrapolate the horrific rate of increase of the tens of thousands of additional deaths that happened under incompetent Trump, and blames it on Biden. Even though those rates flattened out under Biden, and declined in many states. What did facts do to you, @EmmetK? Did facts abuse you? Because you are very abusive to facts.

Bibi the Butcher? He's not my best friend. He's the genocide dude. I thought Bibi and Vlad were best friends. They are both into genocide, after all. Sadists of a feather flock together. There's at least tens of thousands of women and children killed thanks to each of the genocidal sadists. What Bibi is doing in Gaza is in the ballpark of what your genocidal sadist did in Mariupol. And about ask quickly.

I don't speak Russian. In addition to all your other ridiculous and laughable arguments, are you now claiming that what the Russian journalists that Putin does kill are allowed to say in Russian media is also US propaganda? This Biden dude must be pretty smart to get past Putin and get the Russian journalists Putin doesn't kill to report US propaganda. In other words, genocide not only leads to Vlad turning hundreds of thousands of Russians into fertilizer. It leads to Russians committing more murder, too. Who'd have guessed?

Biden is a murderer. A mass murderer. @EmmetK's chart proves it. In 2017, when Biden was President, accidental drug deaths soared to all time highs. In 2018, when Biden was President, accidental drug deaths soared to new all time highs. in 2019, when Biden was President, accidental drug deaths soared to even higher all time highs. In 2020, when Biden was so demented that the American public ended his failed Presidency, accidental drug deaths soared by 20,000 deaths in one year alone, to a staggering new all time high. Now that Donald Trump is President, and making America great again, he's got a handle on the problem. Accidental drug deaths seem to be starting to flatten out. But we have a lot more work to do.

Exactly. Thanks to demented dictator Biden, murder went through the roof last year. Just last year, 200,000 Americans were turned into fertilizer by criminal Ukrainians invading our country. Jews! Nazi Jews! Meanwhile, in Russian cities, there is no murder thanks to Vlad. Anyone who says there is a murder problem in Russian cities needed to be silenced. Or sent to jail. Or poisoned. Or shot in the head There is no murder in Russia. Russia Records First Rise in Murder Rate for 20 Years – Kommersant

I didn't say that. I said Vlad is blameless for the problems of the Russian Federation. How could he be? There are none. I love Vlad. Much like I love cats, dogs, and Ukrainian children. Living ones. With mothers. And fathers. Living ones. Vlad is perfection. And he has made Russia a perfect image of his perfect, beautiful self. Vlad is love. Vlad is kindness. Vlad is decency. Vlad is kindness. Vlad is perfection.

Trump's plan to end the Ukraine war is to totally cut off funding, says Putin's closest EU ally This is going to hurt Trump. The cross tabs of this new poll I referred to in the prior post are worth taking a look at. People have a lot of conflicted feelings about both wars going on right now. I for sure do. This poll helps illuminate how people feel about Ukraine. Here's the most informative question, which I will quote verbatim (in italics): Q: Since Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022, the United States has responded in part by allocating $113 billion to support Ukraine’s war effort. Which of the following best aligns with what you think the U.S. should be doing in terms of financial aid to the Ukrainian war effort? Continue providing financial aid with specific conditions requiring diplomatic progress (i.e., negotiations to reach a settlement to the conflict) 48 % Stop providing financial aid altogether 30 % Continue providing financial aid without any conditions attached 22 % I think another question helps illuminate that. When asked how the war will end, the answers are all over the map. A plurality of 41 % say, "Dunno." 38 % say through a negotiated settlement. 12 % say Russia will win militarily. 11 % say Ukraine will win militarily. So there is huge uncertainty, but negotiations seem like the best road to peace. Most people I know feel this way. But they also feel like we have to keep giving Ukraine military aid. Trump is in trouble. One reason to question both his mental health and his political judgment is that he is saying extreme, and extremely unpopular, things. He should know that. And if he doesn't, there's a problem. No surprise, Republicans are most likely to support stopping financial aid. But that's 48 % of Republicans. So we're watching this movie right now. Republicans have to tie themselves in knots explaining how we stand up to Putin and support Ukraine by cutting them off. This is going to make Republicans looks weak. 54 % of Democrats and 51 % of Independents support the first choice, continuing aid while promoting diplomacy. 29 % of Democrats and 21 % of Independents support continuing aid with no strings attached. So, basically, about 3 in 4 Democrats and Independents support continuing military aid while seeking a negotiated solution. Trump's "not a penny more" and "Putin can do whatever he wants" to our allies is way, way, way out of touch. It almost seems too good to be true that both Trump and Biden both have a very serious genocide problem in their own parties. This is not the US that was eager to go on offense with Iraq and their WMD. It is not even the America that felt it had to go on defense in Afghanistan after an unprecedented brutal attack on the homeland. "Genocide Joe" is now at serious risk of losing Michigan, and the Presidency, thanks to being complicit in Bibi The Butcher's genocide. Joe has gotten the memo. He is starting to talk about conditional aid to Israel. The rift between Bibi and Genocide Joe will grow. Quickly. "Genocide Don" will have that problem soon. If he's honest, he'll say Bibi - like Vlad - can do whatever the hell he wants. That won't sit well with Independents. The bigger genocide problem for Trump, in the GOP, is his willingness to cut Ukraine off, and reward Putin's genocide. That's how lots of old school Republicans will see it. The part that seems to be too good to be true is that both parties are saying to their nominee: "Give peace a chance." That's not a surprise for left wingers. This is NOT my World War II veteran Dad's Republican Party. I hope they stay this way. I kind of like it. That said, I'll end with a pop quiz. Which of these ones is not like the other: 1) Vladimir Putin. 2) Hamas 3) Bibi Netanyahu 4) John Lennon. Call me lefty. One wanted to give peace a chance. The other three have spent their whole time in power giving genocide a chance. America may have changed for now. But the world is still the same.

Everything in Russia is perfect. Everyone loves Russia. Tourism there has reached an all time high. Ukrainians are flocking to Russia to live. Especially children. How could a country be luckier than to have Truth, Light, Beauty, Wisdom, and Hope all embodied in its perfect loving leader? Compared to that America is hell. Everyone wants out of America. Everyone wants in to Russia. Russia's Central Bank Raises Key Rate to 16% Amid Growing Inflation Russia’s inflation spike sets Kremlin and central bank on collision course Russian consumers feel themselves in a tight spot as high inflation persists God bless Vladimir Putin, for making Russia perfect! God damn Joe Biden, for his genocide and lies. How can Russia ever thank Putin, other than by turning themselves into fertilizer?

Exactamente! Vlad the Kitten, the charitable and kind and loving democrat who revived Russia and brought it to gentleness and warmth and love, is revered the world over. America is hated!!!!!! Could not be more true. Vladmir Putin, font of knowledge and wisdom, lover of kittens and kids, the beating heart of Russia, Ukraine, God, Truth, and Humanity, is leading the world to a future of love and values. Not even Nazi Jews, ethnic minorities, or The Gays can stop him. The United States is seen for what it is. Home to indecency, stagnation, sloth, and The Gays. God Bless Russia! God Bless Vladimir Putin! Only through him are we saved!

Americans Remain Committed to NATO Two-thirds want to see U.S. increase or maintain commitment to NATO I of course just posted that, but it bears repeating. I'm talking US domestic politics now. The equivalent point is that 2 in 3 Americans agree with Trump on immigration. Biden has not been tough enough. We should close the border. So do people care more about keeping "illegals" out of America? Or about keeping Ukrainians safe from a genocidal sadist? In terms of how this plays out in November, I think it matters a lot that in both cases Republicans are just blocking anything and creating chaos. They are blocking money going to Ukraine, which most Americans, and many House Republicans (but not most Trump Republicans) support. They don't want compromise on immigration. I would bet money that whole "do nothing Congress" thing is going to hurt them in November. Now let's add what the CIA Director just said. I pray to God he is right. His point is that NOT funding Ukraine is a "massive and historic mistake". Same thing Biden said. We should not bow down to Putin, a genocidal sadist. Most Americans agree. They see Putin as a genocidal sadist. They support NATO. They do not want Ukraine to lose. They believe we should support Ukraine. Biden, and his CIA director, are preaching to the choir. This is what it means if Putin gains "significant ground". Your genocidal sadist killed a baby boy in Mariupol. His parents are heartbroken. For all we know, your genocidal sadist also managed to kill the mother, the father, the doctors and the nurses. Your genocidal sadist killed tens of thousands of innocent people in Mariupol. People who voted 80 % against being part of your genocidal sadist's nation. They were right. Why would anyone want a genocidal sadist as a leader? Why would Russians want a genocidal sadist leader who processes them into fertilizer? Trump's best argument is that we need to end this, and focus on building pretty new buildings in Ukraine. Buildings built over the bodies of all those dead Ukrainian babies, and dead Russian soldiers. It's an argument. But if that is the best Trump has, he's gonna lose. At least based on that argument. But it does make it sound like Trump is against killing baby boys. Trump is for building pretty buildings. If Burns is right, and Trump's effort to block aid to Ukraine encourages Vlad to go big on genocide, it mostly makes Trump look weaker, and stupider, and more of a Putin cock sucker. I love that picture. Two of the best Putin cock suckers in the world, amid the opulence of Mar A Lago. Please, let's plaster that picture all over America. And please, make sure that photos says: "Not a penny more to Ukraine if I win. I, Donald Trump, will cut off all aid to Ukraine if I win." Is it is reasonable to have Orban suck Trump's cock while he says it? Or maybe Orban and Trump sucking Vlad's cock? It's an idea. Maybe we can be like Russia, and suck Putin's cock. And if we can't be like Russia, we can be like Hungary. A junior cock sucker. A wannabe Putin cock sucker, gradually undermining democracy every way we can. That way Putin won't kill our babies, and rape our women, and kill our soldiers. It's an idea. If Putin does launch an offensive, and what Americans see on TV are more dead baby boys, and more sobbing Moms who may be dead themselves soon, this is not good for Trump. Because it just makes him look even more like the weak, pathetic, selfish Putin cock sucker that he is. One thing I'm hoping, for Ukraine's sake, is Putin is smart enough (spoiler alert: he's not) to hold off on the genocidal sadism a bit until after the US election. Putin should be smart enough (spoiler alert: he's not) to figure out that making it clear that Trump pals around with baby killers who are genocidal sadists isn't really what we expect of our Presidents. If you don't believe me, just pay attention to all the feelings about Gaza, as you already know. Putin would be doing Bibi The Butcher a big favor by taking the focus off his genocide in Gaza and putting it back on the genocide in Ukraine. An offensive that kills more babies and Moms in Ukraine would accomplish that. And Putin is the kind of genocidal sadist that will do it. I have a very hard time believing that the 2 in 3 Americans who support NATO will buy Trump's vision of weakness, stupidity, and lining up to suck Vlad's cock like Tucker did. Maybe America will become Putin's cock sucker. The ones who do will rationalize it by saying Vlad's not such a bad guy after all. Which is a bit hard to believe when the images on TV are about how the genocidal sadist is killing babies in Ukraine again. But who knows. Maybe America will bow down to Putin. But I would not bet on it. This could backfire. I'm guessing Burns has been reading the polls, as Biden has: That's an interesting poll, compared to the way most ask the question. Because there is this seeming contradiction. If you ask whether Americans want to send aid to Ukraine, they say yes. If you ask whether Americans think we need negotiations for a peaceful settlement, they say yes. That poll sound right to me, based on lots and lots of polls on Ukraine. I think most Americans agree with Burns (and Biden) that we need to keep arming Ukraine. So, as Burns says, Ukraine "can regain the offensive initiative by early next year and negotiate from a position of greater strength." Those poll numbers sound right. There's some wing of militarists who think we should arm Ukraine forever, or jump in the fight ourselves. Maybe 1 in 5 Americans would go for that, the poll suggests. Maybe 1 in 4 or even 1 in 3 Americans just want to cut Ukraine off and leave them to the genocidal sadist. Trump is one of them. Why? I guess it makes America Great Again. And then there's this huge center that wants to aid Ukraine's defense, but try to end the war through negotiations. It's a form of peace through strength. Burns and Biden are centrists. They obviously have read the polls. Trump is saying we should not give Ukraine a penny, I guess. Cut 'em off. Be nice to Putin. I think that makes him look weak, and extreme. If Vlad ramps up the genocidal sadism, it will make Trump look even weaker. And then there is this, from one of Trump's potential running mates: Huh? And we punish the murderous dictator by NOT sending the military aid Ukraine desperately needs, so the genocidal monster can kill more Ukrainian babies? I am pretty sure this will hurt Republicans. They'll look both weak, and hypocritical. The question it raises is whose cock are these weak Republicans sucking? Trump's cock? Putin's cock? Both cocks? Ugh!

Russia Records First Rise in Murder Rate for 20 Years – Kommersant Granted, 7,628 murdered Russians ain't nothing compared to the hundreds of thousands of Russians your genocidal sadist is processing into fertilizer. Not to mention all the men, women, and children of Ukraine who those Russian soldiers kill, torture, and rape before they are processed into fertilizer. You're always welcome in California, @Kostik, if it makes you feel safer. And you won't get beaten up, jailed, or killed for being Gay.

Come on, @Kostik. You can do better than that. What with all the genocide Russia is causing, and the hundreds of thousands of Russians Vlad is processing into fertilizer, you mass murderers know more than anyone about murder. All Dementia Joe can do is say murders are down by about 2000 a year in the US. That ain't nuthin compared to Vlad's Glorious Genocide. 'It is historic': US poised to see record drop in yearly homicides despite public concern over crime The year is expected to end with over 2,000 fewer murders than in 2022. Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year I suck at math. But let me give this a try. In the US, we have 2,000 fewer murders a year under Biden's leadership. In Russia, we have maybe 200,000 more Russians being processed into fertilizer under Vlad's leadership. Personally, I'm figuring when Vlad orders them to go on offense, which he will, that's maybe 500,000 more Russians processed into fertilizer. Since the common sense rule in Ukraine now is that when you try to advance, or even move, a drone or a gun sees you and kills you. It worked well for Russia on defense. But it still means you had a lot of Russians processed into fertilizer. It will work less well when Russians have to advance through Ukraine's defenses. But it is good for cows, and grass. Obviously this explains why everyone is trying to get into Russia, and no one is trying to get into the US.

Okay. I had to get the logical part out of my system. Now that I have, let's go with the emotional part. Donald Trump is the smartest man alive, who knows more than anyone else, and was the best President ever. That much is self-evident. How else can we explain his overwhelming re-election in 2020, and the stunning string of Republican victories ever since?

Sweet! Go ahead and laugh. It will make it even more satisfying for me when Biden wins. You can have two theories about Americans, @EmmetK. 1. Americans are essentially stupid. They see a dumb Trump ad and say, "Yes. I am sheep. Feed me 30 seconds of dumb and I am yours." or 2. Americans are essentially smart. They care about the economy, war and peace, social order, and important things. That's what determines who wins. You are the poster child for the first theory. You are deeply committed to stupid. Even when your own cult leader says, "Good call, professor" after he predicts your cult leader will win in 2016, you have to process out of your brain that your own cult leader is smart enough to acknowledge intelligence sometimes. That is how deeply committed to stupid you are. Lichtman is committed to intelligence. He's got a good explanation for why people vote the way they do. He's been right in 1984. And 1988. And 1992. And 1996. And 2000. And 2004. And 2008. And 2012. And 2016. And 2020. But this is completely irrelevant to you. You are that completely dedicated to stupid. Your brain is so wired to cult that you will take that 30 second ad and say that's all it takes. But Lichtman says the ads don't predict who wins. Lichtman just did it again a few days ago. That headline is inaccurate. Lichtman did not say Biden will defeat Trump. He said it is a fluid situation. Things can change. 2020 is a perfect example. Lichtman has as much as said that if the election were in January 2020, Trump would have won based on his Keys. But the economy tanked, changing two of his keys. The social chaos of Summer 2020 turned his social order key against an incumbent for the first time since 1968. You can say Lichtman is a flaming asshole. But when he predicted in September 2016 that Trump would win, people thought he was nuts. He was correct. He was correct again in 2020. So his point is clear. A lot would have to change for him to predict Biden is going to lose. A recession would do it. A sudden and stunning defeat in Ukraine would do it. But, while he didn't spell it out, neither might do it alone. He's saying "a lot" would have to change. Several things would have to suddenly turn against the incumbent, just like they did in 2020. If it happened in 2020, it can certainly happen again in 2024. But, right now, Lichtman is saying Biden is on track to win. If you want to be even more of a fool than your criminal cult leader, and say, "You're stupid, professor. Bad call," go ahead. It's what smart people expect of people who are deeply committed to stupid.

Damn! Once again. We agree. This isn't even a debate. You keep making my arguments for me Americans Remain Committed to NATO Two-thirds want to see U.S. increase or maintain commitment to NATO That poll is less than a month old. So, yes. Trump wants to bow down to Putin. Trump is okay with Putin's genocide. Trump wants to weaken if not destroy NATO. These are all among the many reasons this weak, corrupt, law-breaking, cop-bone breaking wannabe fascist will lose. You're just deeply fucked, @Moses. You keep saying outrageous shit. If you think Americans will elect Trump so he can bow down to Putin and destroy NATO, you are clueless in your denial. At no point have you rebutted my main point. You condone genocide. You think genocide works. You actually want MORE genocide. Now you want to argue that we can kill as many children as we want. We can kill as many women as we want. We can kill as many men as we want. See? Genocide works. We did it is Grozny. You just have to kill as many children, women, and men as it takes, dump them in mass graves, and pave them over in concrete and put new buildings on top of their bodies. Ain't it swell? Doesn't it look pretty? I'd say there's probably a 30 to 50 % chance that in a decade Chechnya will be an independent state, after the Russian Federation breaks up. That's a very hard one to call. What's easier to call, because it's inevitable, is that your genocide in Ukraine will weaken Russia - politically, economically, and militarily. It's happening right now. You can't deny it. Interest rates are soaring. Inflation is soaring. Bankruptcies are soaring. The US stock market keeps making new highs, and the average American's net worth is up 30 % since 2019. Vlad needs an inflationary pretend budget, and he needs to process hundreds of thousands of Russians into fertilizer, just to TRY to keep this genocide going. You think you are on a sustainable or winning path? Give me a fucking break. Yes. The Jew is a Nazi. Got it. Makes perfect sense. You're so far out there, @Moses, that I would not stop at the Pope. Let's bring in the master of fantasy, Walt Disney. You'll need it. Let's have happy talk about genocide. That's what you want, and what you actually need. Happy talk about the genocide, to try to think it is not just pure evil. When you wish for genocide Makes no difference where you die All the hate your heart desires Will come to you. As you build your war machine No cruelty is too extreme When you wish for genocide As Russians do Kill their babies rape their Moms Shell their cities with your bombs When you wish for genocide You always lose. Here's the thing @Moses. Thanks to your genocide, 90 % of Ukrainians love Vlad even more than Walt Disney. They just can't wait for Russian soldiers to kill their men, rape their women, and blow up their babies. It is sowing love and respect for Russians, which will build 100 years of peace. If that's the fantasy you want to believe, enjoy it while it lasts.

Yup. You deserve the Petraeus Propaganda Award. You are proving it with every post. This is exactly why 90 % of Ukrainians don't want to make peace with your genocidal sadist. Putin is a man of genocide, not honor. He has made that very clear. At the end of 20 Days of Mariupol, it says, "An estimated 25,000 people are known to have died in the siege of Mariupol. The true toll is probably much higher." Can you show us the pictures where you rebuilt the 25,000 dead people? The film showed us the dead mothers your genocidal sadist kjiled. The film showed us the dead babies your genocidal sadist killed. Show us the pictures of how you rebuilt the dead. This is why 90 % of Ukraine does not want to make peace with your genocidal sadist. Ain't gonna happen, @Moses. Believe and dish out all the propaganda you want. But the hell will continue, thanks to what your genocidal sadist did. Can you estimate for us how many more Russians need to be processed into fertilizer? How high does inflation in Russia need to go? How high do interest rates need to go in Russia? How many bankruptcies? Educate us, please! This is not happening because of NATO. Not because of the US. Not because of Europe. It is happening because Ukrainians see Putin as the genocidal sadist he is, and Russians soldiers as the torturers and rapists and mass murderers that they are. How could they not? Everything you are saying confirms my points, and often restates them. I'll restate that I'm okay with saying the US committed genocide in Iraq. I opposed it. Most Democrats opposed it. Nancy Pelosi opposed it. How did it end? Very badly for the US. Even though we are far more powerful than Russia, and we had a world of allies. And yet somehow you want to believe the propaganda that it will end differently in Ukraine. Even though Ukraine is stronger, has way more allies, and probably hates you more. And already has demonstrated that they know how to kick your ass. What Ukraine proved in 2023 is that they don't have superpowers. They couldn't just walk through horrific killing fields of defense set up by Russia like heroes in a Marvel movie. But you are not winning a war that is a quagmire. And will continue to be a horror that drains Russia of blood and treasure. Just like our invasion of Iraq (or Afghanistan, or Viet Nam) did to the US. Grozny and Chechnya makes my point. It was an internal civil war, not an occupation of another country. And even then, it took about a decade to quell the war. The key verb is "destroy". That is correct. Russia destroys. Russia kills. Russia rapes. Russia tortures. Again, you are making my point. And yet you can't simply connect the dots of blood of how genocide works. Even though you are pointing to the US and describing, quite accurately, how it worked in Iraq. And how it will end for Russia in Ukraine. You condone the genocide, and deny the genocide. You condone mass murder. You just won't admit that this is precisely why 90 % of Ukrainians don't trust the genocidal sadist, and his rapist soldiers, who have done this to them. They found something like 800 Chechen bodies in mass graves from the 1995 Chechen war. They found something like 5000 bodies in mass graves from the second Chechen war. Did you restore them? Can you show us the pictures? Your point is this: "GENOCIDE WORKS." We committed genocide in Chechnya and it worked. We were willing to destroy everything, and kill everyone. We killed the men. We killed the women. We killed the children. Our strategy was to destroy, and commit genocide. And it worked! Woo hoo! If you think that will work in Ukraine, this is why I gave you the Petraeus Propaganda Award. Everything about Chechnya tells us precisely why Russia will lose in Ukraine. Chechnya has a bit more than 1 million people. In Ukraine, there are maybe 10 times as many WHO LEFT UKRAINE because of the genocide, and are absolutely determined to return from Poland or wherever they are. Then there's the maybe 37 million people still in Ukraine. You think this is like Chechnya? You think you can just destroy and destroy and destroy and keep on with the genocide and win that way? Show me one example in history where that actually worked. Every recent example - Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Viet Nam - shows why genocide and mass destruction doesn't work. It just dooms millions of Russians to suffering and being processed into fertilizer. This is not for me or you to decide. Personally, I hope that 90 % of Ukrainians get tired of the war. I hope they shift and maybe decide they can live without Crimea. And maybe just build a huge fucking wall and join NATO. But even that will take a very long time. The only other alternative is what happened to the USSR in Afghanistan. It ground Russia down (with only 10 % of the dead Russians we already have in Ukraine) and it ground the Russian economy and morale down. And that took many years. So it took 10 years of hell, mass murder, rape, torture, and genocide in Chechnya, which has 1 million people and is part of the Russian Federation. If you think it will ONLY take 10 years in Ukraine for Russia to win, you are deluding yourself, Gen. Petraeus. You are explaining why you will lose to us. And you don't even get it. You also don't get that the US does rebuild. The appropriate example, especially in Europe, is what happened after World War II. The US did occupy. The US and our allies came up with the Marshall Plan. We did rebuild Germany. It became a vibrant economy. It has been a strong ally to America. In my view, Germany was a good ally when Schröder opposed the Iraq War. We should have listened. I agreed with him. Germany is a strong ally now in welcoming Ukrainian refugees and opposing your genocidal sadist. Have you noticed that Ukrainians hate Russians, and the idea of being part of Russia? Have you noticed how they can't wait to be part of the EU and NATO, and build a wall between them and your genocidal sadist and his raping and mass murdering soldiers? So, again, all your points explain the details of why and how Russia will lose. The US is probably one of the best examples in all of world history of how you win a war and occupy the country of the loser. And rebuild it in a way that, 80 years later, it is one your strongest allies. Japan is another example. Although, as you like to point out, the US nuked Japan. Did you notice whose side Japan is on now? Do you understand why the Japanese people feel the way they do? We did nuke them, after they bombed the shit out of us and started the war. It is a great example of how you go from being enemies to being allies, based on mutual self-interest. Where did the Soviet Union or Russia ever do that? Poland? East Germany? Estonia? Lithuania? Afghanistan? Ukraine now? Give me a fucking break! All you have proven so far is that in a small part of your failing federation, genocide can be made to work. For now. If and when the Federation collapses, Chechnya will be an independent country. Thanks for pointing out how hollow all your propaganda is.

Congratulations, @Moses. I am proud to bestow on you the esteemed Gen. David Petraeus Award For Military Propaganda And Bullshit. Petraeus had a knack for explaining how the Afghan surge was going to work beautifully. And then how the Iraqi surge was going to work beautifully. Needless to say, by the time he started cheerleading for Ukraine's 2023 offensive, hearing Petraeus on TV talking about how successful it was going to be sounded like ................. well, bullshit. Sounds like you're reciting the bullshit and propaganda you hear and read from Vlad's war planners. I'm not good at military strategy. Which is why I'm good at saying there are some very common sense things that aren't that complicated that anyone can understand. The rhetoric about taking back Crimea always seemed particularly overconfident. After Russia had months to set up defenses in the areas they occupied, it seemed predictable that it would be a huge challenge to get through them. And - what a complete surprise! - it was. That's why I give Gen. Milley credit for not spouting bullshit. And instead advocating negotiating for peace while your enemy is weak. Problem, as @reader noted, is who actually believes Putin is honorable, or keeps his word? What also seems common sense is that all the rules of occupying wars apply here. It's their country, not yours. They hate you, they want to get rid of you, they want to kill you, and they will gradually and incrementally do that. If Russians want to keep fighting and turning millions of yourselves into fertilizer, maybe that will work. But the history of this is that you're in for years and years and years of hell. Just like in Viet Nam, Afghanistan, and Iraq, to name the most obvious quagmires. It's already fucking up Russia's economy badly, and that will just continue and escalate. You don't want to believe it. Fine, Gen. Petraeus. Cheerlead and bullshit all you want. I don't see Vlad stopping. And I think Milley was right. He can't win militarily, and neither can Ukraine. My guess is the most likely thing that will change is Ukraine may eventually decide that they were overconfident. And that some of this territory - especially Crimea - will never be part of Ukraine again. But that is a long way off. 90 % of them don't want to make peace with Russia on Russian terms. Again, because Putin is a man of genocide, not honor. So I think you're stuck with a future of trying to keep an economy based on genocide and turning Russians into fertilize going. Best of luck. And congratulations on you new honor, @Moses. Too bad I can't give you an Oscar, as well. That went to the people who documented Vlad's genocide., The global effort to document the genocide and the horror of Putin's Russia is just getting started.

We agree. The stuff about how Boris Johnson kept Ukraine from making a peace deal with Kind And Loving Vlad is laughable bullshit. We know that. We don't know what would have happened if Ukraine had listened to Milley. Who certainly had a good point. If there was a deal to be made, it would have been simple at core. Putin gets out of Ukraine. Ukraine stays out of NATO. Somehow they try to get along. Kissinger's idea that somehow Ukraine could be a bridge between Russia and the West was a good idea. Vlad's invasion killed that idea. I can see two huge problems with Milley's idea. By 2022, Putin had bet his power and his place in history on his special military operation. So clearing out of Ukraine, even if he got a commitment on NATO, is something that would have looked like a loss. You know better than me how that might have played in Russia. It certainly would have been good news for all the Russians being processed into fertilizer. The other problem is how Ukrainians feel. That's simple, too. They hate you. They want to kill you. I know my language is over the top. But 90 % of them say they don't trust Putin, because of his genocide, and won't agree to give away land for peace. So the idea that they will make peace with Russia anytime soon seems extremely unlikely. They'd much rather kill you. Harsh, and blunt. But true. It's bad news for both Ukraine, and Russia. Which is why I guess you want to blame Biden, or whoever. I guess this is why Russians might hope the Pope performs some miracle or something. But Milley seemed correct in 2022 and just as correct in 2024 that a military victory is impossible for either side. More likely this is a long and horrific and bloody slog that ends like Afghanistan did, for both the USSR and US. You're fucked. You can't say you were not warned.

So I stumbled upon something else that predicts a Biden victory in November. Before I state it, let me summarize what I like about Lichtman. Other than he has been right every time since 1984. Even Trump sent him a personal note in 2016 saying, "Good call, professor." What I like about his system is that it is based on objective pattern recognition, which he developed with a Russian who was good at predicting earthquakes. When the economy is growing, when there is no recession, when there is an incumbent and no party conflict, when there is no scandal. etc ... then the incumbent party is likely to win. So this is another thing about patterns. To be clear, that chart is not meant to make predictions, or explain causal relationships. I just went looking for a chart about average patterns of the stock market during presidential election years. Usually it's just one line: here's what happens, on average, in a year someone is running for President. I've never seen one like this before. Where it basically says, "Tell me who wins, and then I can tell you how the stock market does on average." Of course, we have no idea who will win. What we do know is the S & P is up 8 % year to date. Which is better than the S & P usually does in a year when the incumbent party wins. In a year when the incumbent loses, the S & P is usually down up to 5 % around now. So historical patterns suggest the stock market's bullishness is also bullish for Biden. While this is not meant to explain a causal relationship, it does make sense that if the stock market is weak, it probably reflects a weak economy. A strong stock market probably reflects a strong economy. But don't tell any Trump supporters. It may spoil the fun they are having thinking we are in a recession, things are awful, and Trump will win. That bullish chart above makes perfect sense to me. That's an amazing chart, which is bullish for Biden, too. What it's saying is if you bought $1,000 worth of NVDA in January 1, 2019, it would have been worth about $14,500 on January 15, 2024 when that chart was made. The article asks where NVDA will be in five years, It's now about seven weeks later. As of March 8, 2024 the same $1,000 would be worth $26,800. NVDA has almost doubled this year. i don't own it. I own SOXL, a tech/chips ETF of which NVDA is a major component. The shares I bought last Fall have tripled. The shares my nephew bought in Fall 2022 have gone up 7x. Young people like him are having a hard time buying homes. Now he and his wife can buy one for cash, if they choose. Not everybody owns tech stocks, or stocks. But average net worth is up 30 % since 2019. The main reason why is 2 in 3 Americans own homes. Biden has something to do with this, good and bad. He's getting the rap for high inflation and high interest rates. That's fair. He's not getting much credit for the economic growth, even though the CHIPs Act and the infrastructure bill and all the technology investments they triggered have a lot to do with both of those charts above. I do have to bet on this one, and that chart above makes perfect sense to me. As that chart suggests, there probably will be a stock market correction soon. And these stocks like NVDA that are flying straight up like space ships will calm down for a few months and correct. But I'll also bet that the rally will continue at least through the election, as happens in a typical Presidential election year when the incumbent wins. This is all bullish for Biden. And he does deserve credit for getting infrastructure and technology investments made that Trump completely failed at. Just like Trump failed at taking people's health care away. When that debate happens, which is just starting, it's going to help Biden and hurt Trump.

Call me Gay. And I have had sex with more than a few priests. But when it comes to fashion, sorry. I've always had a thing for a man in uniform. Beyond his good fashion sense, Milley's negotiating insight was right in Fall 2022. What he said makes more sense than what the Pope just said, with all due respect. I'm not saying Ukraine should have listened to him. But I agree with what Milley said. A military victory does not seem possible for either side. And I'm glad he said it. If only to show the US military is not against peace. It makes way more sense to me than what felt like yet another dose of Petraeus and his gaga military overconfidence. @Moses is teaching us that Putin is now setting up Russians with the same overconfidence both Ukrainians and Americans had in 2022. That's the percentage of Ukrainians who want to join NATO. It is an amazing, but understandable, reversal.