stevenkesslar

The Emerging GOP Plan To Beat Kamala Harris I argued in one of my long-winded rants that Biden resigning would completely fuck up Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita and their cynical plan to enable Trump's authoritarianism. The two dictator enablers are now on record. And if this is the core of their plan, Biden and Team Pelosi have fucked them up good. They are in big trouble. The beauty of the campaign Wiles and LaCivita built was one simple and obvious idea: Biden is old, weak, and feeble. Arguably, they did it so well that they forced Biden to resign. Although mostly they just poked US voters to feel what they felt anyway, but a little more intensely. My moderate sister-in-law texted me today to let me know how relieved she is Biden is out, and Harris is in. She didn't need Susie Wiles or Chris LaCivita to feel that way. But if we want to give Wiles and LaCivita credit for being geniuses, they were so genius that they just completely fucked over Trump and fucked up his campaign. Donald Trump is now the oldest candidate running for President in US history. He is also a rapist. He is also a felon. He is running against a prosecutor. And he is nominee of a party that wants to talk about "coverups" and "coups". Great. Let's talk about how Republicans and their extremist SCOTUS justices want to cover up Trump's crimes against democracy. Let's talk about coups. Mike Pence knows a lot about that! The first part of their new plan that makes the most sense is based on the other thing that is simple and obvious: lots of working class people who don't own homes or stocks were hurt by the Biden/Harris economy. They can tie Harris to that and hope just saying "inflation" wins them an election. Even though inflation is now down to 3 %, and wages are raising more than inflation. Even on this part, I think Harris can slaughter Trump. He wants to cut taxes for millionaires and billionaires. Most Americans want Democrats to tax millionaires and billionaires more. Those child tax credits that cut child poverty in half for one year helped 50 million or so working class parents, grandparents, and kids deal with the costs of things. Until Republicans refused to extend them. Tax cuts for billionaires and taking away things that help working class families. Including Obamacare. How is this helping the working class? I think Harris can prosecute that case well. The second part of their plan, that Kamala engaged in a cover up about Biden's health, shows how desperate they are. How can Biden being old be a cover up, when Americans saw it with their own eyes? It's actually insulting. They said the same thing in 2020, when America fired Trump. They've been saying the same thing for years, with noting to pin it on. Other than the fact that Kamala's eyes and ears are as good as everyone else's. Meanwhile, they want to cover up the fact that Trump is an old rapist and a old felon who only lies when his lips are moving. He is so old that he is the oldest nominee for President in US history. Susie and Chris will wish they could cover that up. But they can't, any more than Biden could cover up his age. It's too soon to tell, but I think there is going to be a groundswell of support for Biden stepping aside as nominee that is broad and deep. Including among Independents. So the idea that we should pick on Joe Biden for being old, or that Kamala should have been cruel to Joe for being old, is a hard sell. And compared to what? Picking on Trump for being a rapist? Being a crook? Being a liar? Trying to overturn an election? Presiding over a 30 % spike in murder? Killing more factory jobs than he started with? Cutting taxes for billionaires? If Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita want Trump to go off about how Kamala covered up things everyone knows, great. Let's talk about what Trump wants to cover up. Starting with his criminal behavior and attacks on cops and democracy. The third part of their plan, going after Democrats for staging a coup, is almost laughable. The best part about it is that having two old rich White cynical political hacks tell Blacks and women that it is somehow undemocratic that a Black female Vice President is now the Democratic nominee is as tone deaf as Biden saying "you ain't Black" if you vote Republican. But Wiles and LaCivita will not be uttering the words. Trump will. And Trump is the rapist who hand picked the radical justices who took womens' rights away, and gave Trump immunity to do whatever rape or crime he wants. So this rapist and felon is going to lecture a prosecutor on how SHE somehow came to power in violation of some democratic principle? GIVE ME A FUCKING BREAK. I can't wait for that debate. Trump should be asked to resign, every fucking day. Granted, we have not had a national referendum on Biden's age and Trump's crookedness. But we do have polls. And big majorities of American have said for years that neither Biden not Trump are fit to serve four more years. So if Trump wants to say it is undemocratic for Biden to listen to what voters wanted and step aside, and empower his #2 rather than threaten to hang him, let Trump do it. But the only place that leads is that 57 % of voters want Trump to step aside as nominee, too. Because he is a crook. 2 in 3 voters think it is a serious crime that Trump tried to interfere in a democratic election. So if Trump wants to talk about coups and democracy, that's a winning debate for Kamala. I hope she actually asks him to step aside so she can run against someone that Americans don't view as a crook and rapist. There's some great line some speechwriter there can come up with. "America wanted two old men to step aside as nominees - one for being too old, and one for being too crooked. Joe Biden listened, and did step aside. Americans respect that. When will you, ex-President Trump? Because America fired you once, and they really don't want you back." If this is the best Trump's hatchet man and woman have, they are in big trouble.

Some interesting factoids. Way too early to tell what polls will say about Trump v. Harris once they poll her as the prospective POTUS candidate. But RCP now has aggregated all the horse race polls up to today. And Trump is leading Harris by 1.7 points, compared to 3 points ahead of Biden. That is certainly not bad news for Harris. I can't recall any other Presidential election where we knew in July a candidate would win because they were 1.7 points ahead. And we may know by the end of August whether Kamala will win. Here's the short version of Lichtman's take on this: If you want the longer version here is a one hour special podcast by Lichtman from tonight on YouTube. Now that it is a fait accompli, Lichtman has toned down his rhetoric about how forcing Biden out would be a self-inflicted disaster. What he is focusing on now is that Democrats can avoid defeat by quickly unifying around Harris. Which, I think, is a fait accompli as well. I think there are now something like like 3 or maybe 4 state delegations that have already pledged all their delegates to Kamala at the DNC. What I love about Lichtman is that his rules not only work. They also make common sense, if you want to have a flattering view of democracy. It makes common sense that swing voters will be more attracted to unity and purpose than to chaos and division. I think Democrats know this is not 1968. And the war is not in our party. The war is to beat Trump. As far as the keys go, as Lichtman says in his video Democrats move from being down 2 keys to being down 3. The incumbency key is lost. Assuming Democrats can unify around Harris, and avoid chaos, that means 3 of his 4 undetermined keys would need to fall to predict Democratic defeat after the DNC. Because he does plan to make a prediction after the DNC in August. It sounds like he leans toward two more keys falling (the foreign policy keys) and the other two not falling (third party, social disorder). So if that's 5 keys against Kamala, she wins. It does underscore how important it is that Democrats now have to unify and get this right. The main thing about Lichtman's system is it's very simple: 5 or fewer keys against you, incumbent wins. 6 or more against you, the incumbent party loses. It doesn't matter which keys. That said, I was curious. If I counted it right, there have been 5 elections since The Civil War where the incumbent party ran a candidate who was NOT the incumbent, and who only emerged after a big party food fight. 4 of those 5 lost. There were three examples where the incumbent party ran a candidate who was NOT the incumbent, and who never went through a party food fight. 2 of those 3 won. The three times an incumbent party ran someone who was not an incumbent but was from the same party and who the party was unified around were Bush in 1988 (after Reagan), Hoover in 1928 (after Coolidge) and Gore in 2000 (after Clinton). So that was 2 out of 3 wins. And Lichtman would argue that Gore won, but the election was stolen from him. So this hardly looks like a death sentence for Kamala. The five examples where a party in power ran a non-incumbent after a big party fight were Clinton in 2016, Humphrey in 1968, Stevenson in 1952, Blaine in 1884, and Hayes in 1876. Hayes actually won. So that is 4 out of 5 losers. Or 4 out of 4 losers since 1900, as Lichtman said in the video above. So this idea of welcoming chaos at the DNC that a lot of media talking heads invite, because it would be fun for them, is not a good idea if the goal is to beat Trump. Biden staying on as POTUS raises some interesting possibilities. The thing Lichtman keeps mentioning as a game changer that could turn one or both of his foreign policy keys in Democrats' favor is something like a ceasefire in Gaza with the release of hostages. In theory, Biden is now useless, because he is a lame duck. No one has any reason to listen to him. But if Harris were suddenly tied with Trump in the polls, that would make a difference.. Like if Bibi thought he can't just wait for Trump to save his ass. And if Harris does win, I actually like the idea of Joe sticking around in 2025 as a sort of war ambassador on Ukraine and Israel. He has expertise and relationships on foreign policy that are really unmatched with any living American. And it addresses the fact that he is not demented. He's just old. Biden's role still may not be completely done when Harris wins. I would love to stick a bomb up Bibi's ass and Putin's ass by forcing them to still have to deal with Biden as an elder statesman in 2025, under President Harris.

This is like an abundance of riches all of a sudden. I'm used to two things. First, feeling zero excitement about Biden, even though I feel like I should feel excited. Second, feeling like I am suffering from Democratic autism. Maybe this is cruel to Joe Biden, who I voted for and love. But I have watched so many interviews lately where I feel like, "Can't ............ you ...................... please ............................ just ............................. finish .................................... the .....................................fucking ......................................sentence." So the idea of Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg running around and dropping clever and witty shit bombs all over the Felon And His Ass Licker is thrilling. Like I want a month of THAT just to catch up from this drought that we have been in, where I had to listen to 90 minutes of Trump's lying ass and then watch JD Vance go lick it!. I had never actually heard Josh Shapiro, so I went to YouTube to find Josh. And this felt just the same. Please put him on a stage and just let this man go off on Trump. He actually kind of reminds me of Kamala. He's got this sense of joy and exuberance. And he winds it up but you know this sharp verbal shit bomb is coming. And it does. This is such a relief. Any of these White guy Guvs, or Kelly, or Whitmer, would be good. By all accounts I've heard Mark Kelly is the boring national hero type. GI Joe without the hair, and someone people deeply respect. So maybe he looks good just standing strong and silent next to Kamala. Rather than the loud mouthed Gay from DC or the loud mouthed Jew from Pennsylvania of the loud mouthed woman from Michigan. I am just happy to be able to hear what needs to be said. Please, speak! Every .................... fucking ................. day!

Pop quiz two, for bonus points. Kamala actually ran this ad in her 2020 campaign. Can you spot which one is the prosecutor, and which one if the felon?

Congratulations! You win. I'm proud of you. You win the prayers of Mike Pence. God bless you!

Some Republicans who are trying to defend the lying old raping felon they nominated for POTUS are trying to argue that Democrats have engaged in a "coup". Can you spot which of these four is a "coup"? 1. 71 % of Americans wanted Biden to step aside because they think he is too old to serve another term. 57 % of Americans wanted Trump to step aside because they think he is too crooked and dishonest to serve another term. Biden listened to voters. Republicans cover up for Trump's lies and crimes and treat him like he is invincible. Is that the coup? 2. 2 in 3 Americans think Trump may have committed serious crimes, such as inciting an insurrection and trying to overturn the results of a presidential election. Most of them do not believe Trump is fit to serve another term for this reason. Extreme right wing members of the SCOTUS, including all the ones Trump hand picked, are now saying Trump is immune from just about any legal accountability for anything he does as POTUS. Even Bush 45's AG, Alberto Gonzalez, who pushed the powers of W. to the limits during the Iraq War, says he thinks SCOTUS went too far. Is that the coup? 3. At the RNC, Trump's granddaughter argued that you can judge a POTUS by how he treats the people around him. Joe Biden chose Kamala Harris to be his Vice President. 81 million Americans ratified her choice as #2 in 2020, as did 14 million Democratic primary voters in 2024. Now based on the concerns of 2 in 3 Democrats about his ability to serve a second term he has uplifted her to take his place and carry the torch. Which was obviously hard for him given his own political ambitions. Is that the coup? 4. Donald Trump lost the 2020 election and demanded his Vice President overturn a free and fair election. When Pence refused, Trump sent his mob to The Capitol where they beat the shit out of the cops they love and screamed, "Hang Mike Pence." Is that the coup?

Since you want to get into it, let's go. That's just wrong. You are completely wrong. Why are you saying things that are not true? Especially on a day when every Democrat feels like Joe Biden is a patriot who just made a big sacrifice for his party and country. Why are you doing this? Stop saying things that are just not true. Seriously, are you suffering from cognitive decline? If you could understand the plain meaning of what Biden has said, which I posted above, you would not be saying such stupid and factually incorrect things. It strikes me that you may actually be bad at discovering simple facts, for whatever reason. So let's just have a very brief and simple summary of facts, okay? FACT 1: Biden says he has been seen by a neurologist three times in three years, as part of an annual physical. Biden has not seen a neurologist 8 times over the last several months. You just made that up. FACT 2: The neurologist who sees Biden has been the neurology consultant at the White House since 2012, and sees many others as well. This is why Dr. Cannard has been at the White House regularly lately. As well as regularly for years. Some right wing source, I think Fox but maybe not, jumped on something about eight visits to The White House in some recent period of time. They apparently did not bother to check that he visits the White House regularly going back years, since he is their neurology consultant. FACT 3: The President was specifically checked for Parksinsons in February 2024, and cleared. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Letter7.8.24.pdf That's the letter from Biden's doctor. So to follow your claim, you'd have to believe that - at the very least - Biden, his doctor, and his Press Secretary are all lying to the public, and Biden has Parkinsons because you say so. Again, any evidence whatsoever?

I know you can't help posting without adding an insulting tone. I get that. The reason I put "appears" in quotes was to quote you. You are alleging, with absolutely no facts to back you up, that Biden lied to the American people about a diagnosis he says he does not have, and then "appears" to have instructed his Press Secretary to do the same. Again, do you have even the tiniest shred of fact to back up anything you are saying? You also said, with no facts to back you up up, that Reagan had dementia when he was POTUS. I'll repeat. His own doctor who treated him for Alzheimers said when he died that his condition would not have impaired him 15 years ago, when he was POTUS. Since you appear to be unconstrained by facts, I guess what the doctor who actually treated him said doesn't matter to you. . Every time I have asked you to support things you say with facts, you simply make more statements with no facts to back them up. Right now, you sound like a far right crank who says Biden has some disease which he does not. If he does have Parkinsons, provide some evidence. If you have no facts, you are a doctor who doesn't know what he is talking about. It's not a great look.

Van Jones 🧡 Joe Biden

The deep lack of respect for the intelligence of Americans, and Black women in particular, shines through. Kamala Harris did not cover up the fact that Joe Biden is old. It is insulting to Americans to suggest they did not figure that out on their own. They did. Why do you cover up that Trump is a crook? Why do you cover up that Trump is a rapist? Why do you deny his 30 % murder spike? Why won't you guys work for the compromise ideas that got border crossings down 40 % since Trump killed the bill conservative Republicans spent a year putting together? It is insulting to Americans, and especially the 57 % who want Trump to step aside, to refuse to listen to them and to instead just lie to them. When will Trump stop being a liar and a crook? When will he listen to America, rather than lie to America? You are just being insulting and dumb. What a shock! GOP is pissed What weak, feeble losers! What losers! How weak! How pathetic! These weak feeble losers did not realize that Joe Biden is a patriot? These weak feeble losers did not realize that they could spend endless amounts of dirty money from billionaire and millionaire donors who want their fat cat tax cuts, all to trash Joe Biden, and Biden would not outsmart them? How weak! How feeble! What pathetic losers! Why do you like these losers? These losers lost in 2018. These losers lost in 2020. These losers lost in 2022. These losers lost in 2023. And now these losers will lose in 2024. Seriously, you fucking stupid clown. Seriously. Did Susie Wilies really not see this coming? Pelosi and Biden are not demented. They are pros in their 80's who are sly, smart, and cunning. You really have such shit for brains that you did not see how easy your whole rotten anti-democratic plan made it to pull the rug out from under you? You idiots deserve to lose. Now all the racist and sexist attacks will start. "Kamala Harris is illegitimate". Where have we heard that before? How weak!

In other words, you want to pump up racism and ignore 57 % of Americans who see Trump for the crook that he is and want him to drop out. I guess at least Trump is honest about wanting to be a dictator. Good luck with that, clown! Rick Wilson:

Even for a lying losing low IQ felon like Trump, you would think they could do better than this. Trump Campaign: "Kamala Was In On It, She Covered Up Joe's Obvious Mental Decline" First off, where is Joe's dementia diagnosis? There is none. What we do know is that Trump was judged by a jury of his peers to be a crook. Several times. He is the kind of raping felon Kamala Harris has thrown behind bars many times. Joe Biden is a patriot who loves his nation and put love of country above his political ambition. He listened. 57 % of Americans want Donald Trump to step aside, too. Will Trump listen? Or is this always about his lies and his own ambition? (Dumb question, I know.) Kamala Harrfis has not covered up the fact that Joe Biden is old. America figured that out just fine on her own. Kamala Harris will not cover up the fact that Donald Trump is an old rapist lying felon. She will not cover up his rape. She will not cover up the fact that he is a crook. She will not cover up his lies. She will not cover up his desire to kill Obamacare. She will not cover up his billionaire tax cuts. She will not cover up his 30 % murder spike. She will not cover up that he killed factory jobs in America. She will not cover up that he killed a compromise immigration bill, after which Biden took unilateral action and border crossing went down 40 %. When will Republicans stop covering up for old gross lying rapist felon Donald Trump? When well they address the Trump rapes? When will they address the Trump attacks on democracy and free elections? When will they address the Trump crimes? When will they apologize for his mob beating cops viciously? When will they for once tell the fucking truth to Americans about the crook they nominated for President?

When are you calling for your lying raping felon to get out of America's way? 57 % of Americans want Trump to step aside. 2 in 3 Americans are appalled at all the criminal acts that make Trump a crook. The porn star hush money conviction was only a start. Biden has listened to America. He has stepped aside. Trump is next. When will Trump stop lying to America, and start listening to America? And what do you personally have against Black women who exude joy, intelligence, truth, hope, and adherence to the law?

I'll take that as a serious comment and post this excellent piece by a moderate about working class voters and immigration. A Masterclass on Not Treating the Working Class as Second Class The whole essay is excellent. I'll add a few facts that surprised me. Lower-income working class voters (meaning without college degrees, as is the norm to define "working class" now) split almost evenly between Trump and Biden in 2020. So the idea that non-college working class voters are now overwhelming Republican is NOT true. The working class voters (meaning ones with no college degree) who are most for Trump are three things: White, and evangelicals, and relatively affluent. And it is the extreme culture war stuff that plays particularly well among White working class evangelicals. As that essay argues, most working class people - especially those who are not evangelicals - do NOT like the extreme culture war stuff. But they also don't like "open borders" immigration policies they associate with Biden and Harris. That was written two months ago. In theory, that was a path for RFK, Jr. But his campaign has basically dried up, and Biden has dropped out. I think a way to think about that now is it is great political advice for Kamala Harris. This is probably the best argument for bringing Mark Kelly into this race. He is a moderate. He went after Biden on immigration. He is seen as one of those people who genuinely wants to reach out to Republicans and find middle ground. The perfect symbol of that is an immigration bill crafted by Kyrsten Sinema and one of the most respected and conservative Republicans around. That bill failed, thanks to Trump being more interested in political attacks and his own power than in actual compromise. Regardless, Biden took executive actions that have slowed down border crossings. A Harris/Kelly ticket is a new chance to talk about immigration and sensible middle ground reforms that support the working class that lives in America already and that both sides can agree to. Guess how much border crossing numbers plummeted after Biden put in a new policy Trump is in it for himself, and his own power. He does not want compromise. He does not want change, other than to put his own lying ass back in power. Trump has no record to run on. He killed manufacturing jobs in America. The lying raping sack of shit is one of the few US Presidents who left office after a record of division and lies with fewer factory workers than when he started. What a lying sack of shit. All Trump does is lie to the voters who want him to step aside. Biden brought back almost 1 million manufacturing jobs. The factories that will build all these chips under Biden's bipartisan CHIPS law are being built in Arizona, like crazy. So Mark Kelly is the guy who can talk about working class factory jobs in Arizona, and a bipartisan and moderate approach to immigration.

I'm impressed that Halperin turned out to be right. He put his ass out there on the thread I started, saying from his sources it would be as early as Sunday. And he was right. If any of you political whores are interested this is an instant one hour commentary podcast Halperin just did after the announcement, with lots of smart operatives including Morning Joe on board. Smart discussion. The audio goes out at points but it captures a lot of good initial thinking by political pros, including Halperin.

I would not object, for sure. But I think it is better to kick the ass of the fake sycophant who supposedly represents the future of MAGA Trump worship and ass kissing: JD Vance. My Sister in Cock Suckrates is right. JD gets the eyeliner vote. Other than that, I think it is all bullshit about how they love the working class as they give tax cuts to billionaires like JD's more recent ass kissing pal Peter Thiel. Secretary Pete is right. This is simple. This is about what rich White guys want. Women should work at Walmart and have babies. No abortions. And maybe they'll get a $100 tax cut while Peter Thiel gets a fortune. Fuck Trump. The lying raping felon should resign, like America wants. Give JD and his ass licking a chance, and let's kill that cancer before it can grow.

Watch this guy. Helps put Arizona in play. Helps with the White male vote in all the swing states. Helps tone down immigration. Wife is a national hero on gun control. Massive crossover appeal to Never Trump and moderate Republicans.

You know he already did, right?

71 % of Americans want Joe Biden to drop out. 57 % of Americans want Donald Trump to drop out. Strong majorities want both old men gone. The difference in percentages is that Democrats have had an honest discussion of the fact that Biden's age raises questions about his ability to serve four more years. That is now off the table. He listened to Americans, including 2 in 3 Democrats, and is gone. When will Trump stop lying to Americans, and start listening to them? 57 % of America wants the lying raping felon gone. The issue with Trump is worse. It's not that he is old, and people question whether he can serve until he is 88. It is that he is a crook, a rapist, and a liar with no integrity. He lies constantly. He rapes. He breaks laws. He undercuts democracy. He tries to steal elections. He is a thug, a bully, and a felon. When will Donald Trump listen to the American voters and drop out? America does not want his old lying raping stench around anymore. We fired him once. If he won't listen to America and drop out we will have to fire him again. I mean, fire the sad and weak raping lying felon from the fake dictatorship he enjoys at his right--wing rallies, where he is treated like The Messiah. Joe Biden listened to the Lord Almighty, and America, and dropped out. Donald Trump and his radical followers believe he is the Lord Almighty. Ugh! The concern that Trump is a lying rapist felon with no integrity who should not lead America has been growing for a decade. Poll: Most Americans say Biden and Trump are not 'fit' to serve as president That poll is from almost exactly one year ago. The belief that Biden and Trump need to drop out has only grown. With Biden, it grew from 55 % a year agoto 71 % now, based on perceptions of his age. With Trump it grew from 53 % a year ago to 57 % now, based on the fact he is a crook with no integrity. Vast majorities of Americans have believed for years that Donald Trump is a crook who is not fit to be President. When will this lying raping felon step aside and stop being a disgrace to America, democracy, and the rule of law?

Reagan did not have dementia while in office, according to the doctors who treated him for Alzheimers 15 years later. Where do you get your facts from? Is there some doctor that says Reagan had dementia in 1988? So you are saying Biden "appears" to have instructed his Press Secretary to lie. Do you have anything whatsoever to back that up? It would take a vast conspiracy to cover up a diagnosis like you are suggesting has been given, and is being lied about. Yes, you are saying Biden is directly lying to the American people. You are saying he has Parkinsons, is lying about it, and is instructing his Press Secretary to lie about it. Is there any evidence to support this? Yes. You are saying you "suspect" Biden has been diagnosed with Parkinsons, is lying about it, and has instructed his Press Secretary to lie to the world about it. And, no, you are not making a fool of yourself. I "suspect" all these statements are based on facts you can support. Anyways, we both got what we wanted. Biden has resigned. And, at least I'm happy he threw his weight behind Kamala. I think the single most important thing right now is the Democratic Party unifies and goes into FIGHT and FACT mode.

Kick Ass Kamala has themes written for her already: WE HAVE TO FIGHT

Biden has dropped out This is not a talking point, clown. When will lying rapist Trump drop out? 57 % of Americans, and a majority of Independents want the lying raping felon to drop out. Trump trashes democracy. Trump blew up the deficit with his Trump tax cuts for billionaires. Trump extremist judges killed Roe v. Wade. Trump is a liar. Trump is a rapist. Trump is a felon. America wants Trump to drop out. When will Trump leave? Or will he just keep trying to kill democracy instead?

Speaking of which: Biden on trickle down, 2021 Biden on trickle down, 2023 And Biden on trickle down, January 2024: I think this is what people love about Joe Biden. He is committed to progressive ideas, like that the rich should pay their fair share of taxes. And he is passionate about it. So I picked those three videos for a reason. You can see the passion in each video. But you can also see the aging. There is no demented Joe Biden here. The first two clips last just a minute or two. Even in the longer 2024 version, the last video, he is passionate and funny at times. That last 23 minute video is from January 2024. (The trickle down rap, which is good, is from 15:00 to 17:00). That's before the SOTU address he aced, and a month before his last cognitive test that he says he aced. So it should be no surprise that Biden was mostly on message and did just fine here. But if you listen to the first few minutes of the last video, especially, when he was maybe warming up, you can also hear the confusion about his son, and about a US Rep. And "anyway". And the verbal stumbling and stuttering that he seems to be doing more and more. That's not dementia. But it's not inspiring. I know I am over the top on posting today. I spent the whole day watching every video of Joe Biden speaking I could find on YouTube from the last six months or so. I just felt like immersing myself in Joe Biden in a way I never have before. I don't think there is an argument that Biden is demented. I'm no doctor. But I'm almost certain someone with dementia could not be doing what Biden is doing in any of those videos. I think the issue is 100 % political, not medical. It's about Biden as a candidate. But it's also about what Biden would be like as President in a second term. Trump has built his most professional campaign ever, with two leaders who know how to take their opponents out. Susie Wiles built Ron DeSantis up, then tore him down. Chris LaCivita destroyed John Kerry by Swiftboating him. Their plan now is to destroy Biden for being old, weak, and feeble. And it's hard to watch these recent videos and not believe that Biden himself is making their case for them. That Howard Stern interview is a long watch. And a very moving video. It's only two months old. If Biden were retired, and he were just reflecting on his life, the easy conclusion is that this is why people love Joe Biden. Over 1 million people viewed this video. And the comments are overwhelmingly positive and flattering. Even adoring. One recent comment from two weeks ago states, "All those deserting him after the debate should watch this interview." But I think that cuts both ways. I can definitely see that this is the Joe Biden that is compassionate, and older and wiser. And I can also see why Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita think this is the Joe Biden that can easily be portrayed as old, weak, and feeble. And thus defeated. There's a particularly poignant moment at 1:07:00 that relates to what is happening now. He's told the story in many interviews about how his dying son Beau made him promise to not quit, to not step back from public life. So in addition to whatever his wife and bat shit crazy Hunter are telling him, who knows what Biden is thinking about his promise to his dead son? But I know where I hope Biden gets to in his mind and heart, after watching this video. He's the guy who said yes to our first Black President, by being his Veep. And he's the guy who will hand over power to our first Black female President, who served as his Veep. And he's the guy who helped beat Trump, twice. Beau, and his Mom, would be very proud of that.

Of course we never know for sure whether what these reporters say based on inside sources is true. But I have read that so many times - at least dozens - that I assume it is true. I think I've probably read it maybe a dozen times just in the last week, in the context of what Obama and Pelosi and Schumer are doing now. In a few contexts. One, these are the geniuses who decided Hillary should run in 2016. Two, these are the geniuses who managed to blow the 1994 and 2010 midterms. Look what I (Biden speaking) did in 2022. How many dozens of Democrats did I dispatch to the grave? (Answer: almost none.) I'm sure Biden is extremely proud of how Democrats navigated the 2022 midterms on his watch. Which he should be. But if any of that is true, it's not the best Joe. Both Claire McCaskill and Heidi Heitkamp, who are both now MSNBC talking heads, said pretty much the same thing on TV the last few days. This is not an appropriate time for Biden to be angry. This is a team sport. And, in a sense, you could say Biden is being asked to take one for the team. (My words, not theirs, but I think it reflects their main point.) McCaskill and Heitkamp should know. I love them both. They took one for the team when they got buried in Missouri and North Dakota in the 2018 red wave in red states. They are the kind of red state moderate Democratic Senators we need to nurture and love more of, if we are ever going to have 60 votes in the Senate again. And they are right that it doesn't help if we lose Jon Tester or Sherrod Brown. And when all these people with very good political acumen are all saying the same thing - Biden is simply a drag on the ticket - you have to listen. To be a bit more cynical, what I find even more convincing is this. When Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita base the entire Trump 2024 campaign on one theme - Biden is weak, old, and feeble - Democrats should listen. There is no guarantee that switching the candidate they have built an army to defeat will fuck them up. But I think it will probably fuck them up. I think suddenly Trump becomes the one who is the old crook and rapist, with a tough prosecutor coming after his sorry lying ass. That's not my idea. That's the thing a majority of Americans say about Trump in polls, and have for years. He is a crook, with no integrity, and he should stand down as the nominee. So I think if Biden listens to people - including most Democrats - this will fuck Trump up. Then Trump is the old raping asshole who the majority of Independents want to stand down. That's what I mean when I say Biden, who is not senile, is being asked to take one for the team. And, if the team is right, he's being asked to do this based on the principles he says he most cherishes and wants to defend. So that's the fascinating counterfactual. And on this one, I am just going to argue Lichtman's Keys are right. He's been right 10 out of 10 times, by my count. (Gore in 2000 can be debated.) And his argument makes perfect common sense. People vote based on how Presidents and their parties have governed, not based on how well they debate or campaign. Let alone polls, or stupid ads. So Lichtman says that Joe Biden or any Democrat non-incumbent would have lost in 2016. It had nothing to do with Hillary being a woman, or being a Clinton. But if Obama had been able to run for a third term as an incumbent in 2016, with his party unified behind him, Obama would have won. If you buy that, which I do, Biden was lucky. Hillary was the one who took one for the team in 2016. Since Lichtman says whoever ran in 2016 was going to lose - even running against a sorry loser like Trump. Lichtman also argues that whoever ran in 2020 was going to beat Trump, who had governed poorly and now had the Keys turned against him. I buy that, too. We can't have a redo. But had we Democrats not chosen Biden, we would not have this problem now. I am a Lichtman fanatic, and have been for many years. His theory makes sense in practice. But, more important, I'm a pragmatist who likes to win. And he has been right every fucking time. But I do have one philosophical problem with his theory. If you buy it, he basically argues that what the challenging candidates do and say in campaigns is pretty much irrelevant. Only one of his keys indirectly deals with that: challenger charisma. So he says Obama would have won, anyway. But it helped in 2008 that Obama could draw in people from the other side. Just like in 1980 Reagan would have won, anyway. But it helped that he had charisma and was able to draw in "Reagan Democrats". But his system definitely suggests Biden's argument is correct. Forget about debates and polls and what David Axelrod says. They are overrated. People will decide based on how Joe Biden governed. Period. And right now that bet looks good for Biden. So the last thing we should do is throw Biden under the bus. The problem, to me, is his system suggests that what Biden may do in 2025 or 2026 or 2027 or 2028 is irrelevant. Whether he is sane, or even alive, is irrelevant. Why even think about it? And Lichtman may be right. The closest precedent was 1984, when Reagan was arguably in worse shape than Biden cognitively. Who cared? He was the incumbent, running on a good record. And he won in a landslide. Lichtman is saying Biden is poised to do the same. And Democrats may be about to fuck it up, because some rich donor is wetting his pants. Again, speaking as a Lichtman fanatic, I know how I have squared this circle. This has to be viewed by Democrats as a bet on the future. Which is, I would guess, exactly what Team Pelosi is thinking. And as soon as you say that, it is outside the scope of what Lichtman even claims to be good at. And you also have to start with the idea that if 70 % of Americans, including 65 % of Democrats, think Biden is not the right guy, they are probably right. And the reason they are probably right is not about what Biden did in 2020, or 2022. Or even how he debates in 2024. It's about what they see coming down the road for Biden in 2025, and 2026, and 2027, and 2028. I'm not a doctor. But when I listen to Biden today, it's hard to think 70 % of Americans are wrong. Months ago, Lichtman was saying loudly that Biden was down only 2 of the 6 keys Biden would need to lose to predict his defeat. So a lot would have to change for Democrats to lose. Well, it has. In June, right before the debate, Lichtman said that if nothing else changes, Democrats will probably lose 2 more of his Keys (both the foreign policy Keys) when he makes his final prediction in August. So if that is where he ends up, with Biden as nominee, he's down 4 keys. And Biden wins. Losing the incumbency is key five. And that seems a given now. If Biden steps aside as nominee, he will not resign. In fact, the only reason I can see him accepting this in his mind is that he will have to believe he can help Kamala win, and seal Trump's fate. So that leaves one key: party unity. Either Democrats are able to unify and turn this to their advantage under Harris. Or we basically just nailed our coffin shut. Bad news: maybe we are about to die. Good news: we get to decide our own fate. I'll add a caveat to what Lichtman says about 2016 that is perhaps THE most important issue for Democrats right now. Lichtman turned six keys against the Democrats in 2016, and two were that Hillary was not the incumbent, and there was a massive divisive fight among Democrats. If Kamala is not the incumbent, it recreates that situation. But I think it is just common sense that right now there is not a food fight between Sandernistas and Clintonians. Quite the opposite. The whole point is Democrats are unified against Trump, but they think Biden has lost the ability to lead the fight. Lichtman himself has said on his podcast that is not at all predetermined that this has to end in a big Democratic brawl. If Democrats can unify around Kamala, it in fact prevents the fatal sixth key from turning against her in Lichtman's system. To get off Lichtman, I do see see this as a bet, and a reasonable one, on the future. Even if Biden/Harris wins, it now seems clear that it's going to be ugly as Biden keeps aging. Lichtman is probably right, in concept and in practice. That will only matter at the level of Presidential vote in 2028, when people are judging the last four years. If 2027 is when Biden can't even complete a sentence, or has a stroke, Democrats can kick the can down the road to 2028 in terms of any price they pay. Or, if Harris simply takes his place, like many other Presidents have, there may be no price to pay. But 2 in 3 Democrats would rather just avoid going down that road completely. It's a bet. But it makes sense to me. If things go well, Democrats prove to be the adults in the room who listen to 70 % of America, make a change, and try to give Americans what they actually want. That is not obviously a recipe for failure. But the thing that Lichtman is saying that makes common sense, and that the soul leaders of my party - like Jim Clyburn - are saying, is that this has to be grounded and presented in unity. This can't be an ugly food fight. Michelle Obama does have to show up in Chicago and tell America why she thinks Kamala Harris is the right choice. And why Donald Trump is the wrong one. It's a wise bet to make, I think. But I can feel for Joe, and how it's a bitter pill for him to swallow. To end with your simple point, which I of course blew up into a rant, I think Biden would have lost in 2016. He was lucky to run in 2020, when he could win. Now he should focus on what he wants history to say about him, and America.