stevenkesslar

No 180 on my part. More like 100 % behind Allan Lichtman, who is focused on how Democrats win and Trump loses. If there is an all knowing wise guy in this debate, he's it. He was right 10 out of 10 times in picking who would win, and why they would win. (I'm excusing his call for Gore in 2000. Lichtman argues Gore actually won, if the votes were all counted. Even if you disagree, Gore won the popular vote and the electoral college outcome hinged on a small number of votes in one state.) In fact, I'll take a victory lap and argue I out-Lichtmaned Lichtman. In his first few chats with CNN, right after the debate, Lichtman argued that Biden withdrawing from the race in a way that led to a party bloodbath (my word, not his) would be a disaster for Democrats. I agree. What I found confusing, and wrote in several posts, is that it seems like Biden resigning the Presidency and letting Harris run as the consensus candidate AND POTUS would solve that problem. Sure enough, a few days later Lichtman did an interview on News Nation I posted above in which he said exactly that. To summarize again, he has a Plan A and Plan B. Plan A is President Biden runs for re-election under the Biden/Harris ticket, and is favored to win. Plan B is that President Harris runs for re-election under the Biden/Harris ticket, and is favored to win. I'm no pollster, let alone Allan Lichtman. Nor am I a neurologist. But my gut feeling is the same as yours, @unicorn. I think we agree. Biden at least appears to be showing signs of slipping. If 80 % of voters, including most Democrats, think he is not the best candidate to beat Trump, that merits serious reflection. Speaking of neurologists, Sanjay Gupta has weighed in with excellent advice, using words that seem to lean slightly to our shared opinion - emphasis on the word opinion. Biden should undergo ‘detailed cognitive and movement disorder testing,’ Sanjay Gupta says Gupta said low sleep, low blood sugar levels, or illness could have contributed to his debate performance. Perhaps coincidentally, that echoes the precise words of Nancy Pelosi. Is this an episode, or a condition? They both are making a lot of sense. The only thing I would add is that Trump should take the same tests. Including one specifically for narcissistic personality disorder. I'll point out what I view as the key flaw in Lichtman's initial logic, in his first CNN interview. He said Biden should be judged by three and a half years of performance, not 90 minutes of debate. I absolutely agree, as far as that goes. But I think the reason 80 % of Americans are concerned is they see two old men, neither of whom appear to be fit to serve. The question is about the future, not the past. Lichtman appears to have gotten the memo. I think Gupta's advice lays the groundwork for both Plan A and Plan B. Best case for Biden, it was low blood sugar and a cold. Reagan and Obama both survived debates in which they stumbled and fumbled. And in Reagan's case even seemed senile and lost for a moment. Worst case for Biden, it lays the groundwork for his resignation for the good of party and country. If Lichtman's Keys are right for the 11th time in a row, President Harris is set up to run as the consensus candidate, and incumbent. And kick the gross old porn star fucking felon she will run against into the shit can of history, once and for all.

Seriously? Sure. There are bad apples in every barrel. But, for the most part, the MAGA movement is extremely warm and welcoming to Blacks and all people of color. This is why in every MAGA crowd, you see many Black and Hispanic and Asian American faces under the charming red hats. Trump has bent over backwards to acknowledge the historic discrimination against people of color. Not to mention the growing income inequality caused by things like massive Republican tax cuts to mostly White billionaires like Trump. He wants to cut the ACA because he knows it discriminates against Blacks and Hispanics with pre-existing conditions, who would be far better served by more Republican tax cuts to mostly White billionaires. Rep. Mary Miller thanks Trump for ‘victory for white life’ in gaffe at rally Donald Trump and his followers are no doubt the least racist people in America. Trump vows to fight 'anti-white feeling' in the United States

In other words, you conceded my point. Thank you. I'm not a lawyer, let alone a SCOTUS justice. And we'll never know for sure what would have happened had this radical ruling been in place. But an example that has been cited would be the tapes that ended up indicting Nixon and forcing his resignation could have been shielded as "official" acts under an "absolute immunity" interpretation of the radical pro-authoritarian ruling of Trump's hand-picked radical "Justices". If they can even be called that after backing authoritarian injustice like brutally beating the shit out of cops to suspend a democratic transfer of power.

Sweetie, I think you forgot 1974. Had this radical SCOTUS and its pro-authoritarianism ruling been in place then, Nixon would never have had to resign. The radical hand-picked Trump SCOTUS members are increasingly anti-democracy and pro-authoritarian MAGA folk.

The axiom in politics is, "When you're explaining, you're losing." Biden is now a textbook example of that. Part of the problem is that his explanations make things worse. He traveled the globe twice, after which he took a few days off and then spent a week at Camp David preparing for the debate. If that is asking too much of a POTUS, he is basically explaining why he should not be POTUS. Almost every Democratic leader and pundit agrees that Biden needs to get out a lot more. He tells the Democratic Governors the problem is he needs to go to bed earlier. Huh? So far, the more he or his surrogates explain, the more he has to explain. That's not a winning strategy.

The part of this that is not just funny stupid nonsense is that Trump would actually do it, if elected, thanks to his hand picked right wing SCOTUS justices wanting to empower his most authoritarian whims. The Jubilant Patriotic Cop Beating involved Trump specifically telling his radical supporters to go The Capitol, where they beat the leaving shit out of lots of cops. Mayor Eric Adams decried the "river of guns" flowing into NYC from states with Republican "let guns flow" policies, thus resulting in the brutal murder of NYC cops from Republican-sanctioned illegal guns. Murder and violent crime are down about 15 % in 2023 under Biden's pro-cop Administration. But the lying fact-free idiots of Fox News can only bitch about crime in blue cities, while they ignore the massive spike in murder and crime under Trump in 2020 that Biden has now reversed. Republicans are not the party of truth, law, and order. They are the party of lies, guns, and violent authoritarianism. Police officers injured during Jan. 6th Capitol attack denounce Trump as anti-law enforcement P

This is an example where it is almost a no brainer that Kamala would be a better communicator than Biden. I think it was Jon Stewart who ripped into Biden for flubbing the debate question on abortion and actually using it to bring up his weakest point - immigration. Harris is surgical on the question. She points out that Trump hand picked - HAND PICKED! - the three justices who overturned Roe v. Wade with the specific intent of overturning Roe v. Wade. What she can't say is that women don't want the gross old hands of a fat and lazy and stupid narcissist on their pussies. But that is how many women feel. Ugh! Gross disgusting old pussy grabbing hands! Biden/Harris can be either a both/and or an either/or. Either way, everyone knows that Harris could be called on to be POTUS later, if not sooner. So I think all the attention on her is a positive, regardless of how this plays out. She is a better communicator than Biden or Trump. Period.

I agree with that. That older WSJ article you like to cite about Biden's alleged mental frailty mostly named Republican sources like Mike Johnson and Kevin McCarthy. They are hardly disinterested medical professionals qualified to diagnosis dementia - in either Biden or Trump. It's possible that some of the unnamed sources in that older WSJ article were Biden staff members. But we will never know that for sure. The idea of having a June debate was either really stupid, or diabolically genius on the part of Biden's staff. Stupid if it rested on the assumption that somehow Biden would just kick Trump's ass. Diabolically genius if the hidden agenda was to expose Biden's weaknesses to 50 million viewers. Either way, regardless of what is going on with Biden, it is way better to have this debate now than in October. What I'd pay more attention to in the poll you cited is that 47 % of Americans view Trump very unfavorably, and 45 % view Biden very unfavorably. 44 % view Harris very unfavorably. That is actually very good news for Kamala. I think it is reasonable to assume that anyone who will actually vote in 2024 knows and has an opinion about these three individuals. The 2016 and 2020 elections were won at the margins - especially in the key swing states. So what 47 % v. 44 % means is that all three candidates start with close to half of America probably dead set against voting for them. But if we assume one of these three needs 50 % to win, the math is simple. Trump can only turn off 3 % of the voters who are not already dead set against him and still get to 50 % of the vote. Harris can turn off 6 % of the voters who are not already dead set against her, and still get to 50 % of the vote. That means Harris has a lot more room to maneuver among the small part of the voting population - maybe 10 % or so - who are really up for grabs and will decide who wins the election. It's also true that if Kamala were suddenly POTUS, she'd be younger, newer and more exciting. Trump would still be the same old lying narcissist with his criminal and old pussy grabbing hands to gross Americans out. Of course, it's probably a given that in a race with RFK, Stein, and West no candidate will need to get 50 % of the vote to win. Which may be why the "DEI incompetent Black woman" label stupid losing Republicans will definitely pin on Harris may help to explain why stupid losing Republicans who lost in 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2023 will lose again in 2024. As a Democrat, it is kind of amazing to watch how a stupid loser like Trump inspires so many to act stupidly and lose so often. In that poll you cited, Stein gets 1 % of the vote and West gets 1 %. The fact that they only get 1 % each helps explain why Biden is only 2 % behind Trump in the poll you cite - even after his crappy debate malpractice. The closer the election gets, the more likely that disaffected and progressive Democrats who don't like Biden will hold their nose and vote for him, anyway - just like they did in 2020. That is partly because they learned from experience in 2016 that voting for Jill Stein in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin basically helped Trump win. What white men in Iowa or brown lesbians in California think of Kamala Harris is irrelevant to the election outcome. What matters a lot more is what Black men in Philadelphia, women in Madison, and Muslim Americans in Michigan think of Kamala. So please, please, please. If Harris is the nominee, I beg you to trash her brutally and cruelly. I hope Trump makes it absolutely clear that he thinks this worthless Black female cackling gasbag is incompetent. And only qualified to run for POTUS because she is Black and a woman. Let your true colors out, so to speak. Please. Just do it. Forcing Biden Out Would Have Only One Beneficiary: Trump On the specific topic of race and gender, Charles Blow's essay makes the case for Biden by design, and the case for Harris by omission. Blow cites my sage Allan Lichtman to argue that removing an incumbent POTUS in a way that leads to a bloodbath in Chicago would be two big nails in Democrat's coffin. In the last day or so Lichtman has basically fact checked Lichtman's own Keys, and come up with a Plan B. If Biden resigns and Harris is POTUS, and sails to nomination as the head of the Biden/Harris ticket, the same result is achieved. Democrats are running an incumbent, and there is no party bloodbath. Lichtman now argues, based on his Keys, that whether it is President Biden or President Harris defending their Administration, both would be favored to win. Blow also cites the well known suspects - sexism and racism - for explaining why Hillary lost in 2016. And why running Kamala could be risky. But if that's true, why is another Black woman - Michelle Obama - kicking Trump's ass by double digits in a hypothetical race? How racist and sexist is that? So an alternative logical explanation is what Lichtman argued in September 2016: the governing party (Democrats) gets a thumbs down based on his Keys, and any generic Republican - even Donald Trump! - will beat whoever they nominate. He said it in September 2016 and he was right. In the context of the current crisis, it is very important to note that two of the Keys Lichtman turned against Hillary in 2016 were the same two that matter now. She was not the incumbent. And the 2016 primary was a bitter and divisive fight that split the party and was not healed by November 2016 (Superpredator!) So Lichtman is now arguing that the most important question is not whether the candidate is President Biden or President Harris. It is how to avoid running someone who is not the incumbent President after an ugly party bloodbath. The good news is that Lichtman is 10 for 10 on Presidential elections. And he says unless lots changes, either a President Biden or President Harris is favored to win. It's now on Biden to prove quickly, if he can, why he deserves a second term. I am fine with that. After all, stupid losing Republicans led by Trump lost in 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2023. If Democratic leaders are only half as stupid as losers like Trump, they ought to be able to figure this out.

It means you are the all knowing wise guy. I think we should send you to DC to help Pelosi and Jeffries and Clyburn and Schumer figure it out. Although I'm sure they don't even know what Grand Rounds means. Thankfully, you have diagnosed the patient. Why even get a formal evaluation? Regardless, I stand by my idea that Michelle Obama clobbering Trump 50/39 in a hypothetical poll speaks to how many if not most voters are hungering for hope and change.

You're getting my drift now. 😉 Actually, I was thinking of digestive congenitalitis. It's a rare disease mainly afflicting former escorts who now have less cock to suck. I don't think it is Biden's problem. But how would I know. Anyway, enough for the cocky humor. We now return you to your regularly scheduled bloodbath.

I'm glad you included the words "probably" and "some". The fact is we have no idea what those Governors said to Biden. We have no idea what most party leaders are saying in private. I think the only thing we know for sure is that opinion is all over the map. Here's one thing I view as bedrock. Nancy Pelosi knew it was important to avoid a party bloodbath replacing her last year. She was successful in choreographing a transition free of division and conflict. Both Trump and Biden knew it was in their interest to avoid a divisive primary bloodbath. Both Republicans and Democrats rallied around their leaders, both of whom are or have been POTUS. Again, everyone in the big boy's and girl's room knew a bloodbath would hurt their chances. My point is that I am 100 % sure Democratic party leaders are right now focused on one thing: how do we stop this from turning into a bloodbath? I am confident they will solve this problem. As Lichtman said, they have a good Plan A and Plan B, if they want to avoid Trump and chaos. In my view it was the luck of the draw whether Biden stumbled in a debate, or Trump had a stroke. Either, or both, are disasters just waiting to happen. So the idea that we somehow know that Biden is about to be diagnosed with dementia or Trump is about to have a stroke doesn't make any sense to me. The day after the debate I was with three family members, and we all agreed there was maybe a 5 % chance that Biden would have to bow out. I'd now say it's maybe 25 %. I personally think that this was a godsend. Even though the debate went exactly the opposite as planned. Sometimes it makes sense to circle the wagons and suppress dissent. But when 80 % of Americans say this guy is just too old, the strategy is simply not working. Never Trump Republican pollster Frank Lutz said months ago that the party that will win is the party that does not have Biden or Trump as their nominee. Since both are unpopular symbols of a stinky status quo. The fact that Michelle Obama somehow beats Trump by double digits mainly speaks to the fact that a majority of people want hope and change again. I think the wisest Democrats in the room are now quietly trying to figure out what that means. And I don't think anyone knows the answer yet. True. It's an odd slip. I of course meant congenital heart failure. I think it's because, as much as I love to talk about genitals, I tried to avoid doing so around Mom and Dad 😲

Sorry to be a total bitch, my dearest and most darlingest Sister In Cock. But you know me. Some political pundit was on TV last night saying that, for the first time, Trump is approaching 50 % in polls. The figure the pundit used was that, previously, Trump was limited to 46 % or so of the vote. To be precise, he "won" with 46.1 % of the votes in 2016, compared to 48.2 % for Hillary. He lost with 46.8 % of the votes in 2020, compared to 51.3 % for Biden. Those percentages of course depend on a shifting turnout base, that increased by close to 20 million votes between 2016 and 2020. Regardless, so far it has been an axiom of US politics that a majority of Americans reject Trump, his lies, his narcissism, and his gross old pawing and molesting and pussy grabbing hands. That has not changed. In the current RCP average, which includes lots of post-debate polls, Trump is still stuck at exactly 46.7 % of the vote. Try as they might, Team MAGA can't spin a gross old pussy grabbing asshole as anything other than a gross old pussy grabbing asshole. Voters are smart. They just don't like gross old pussy grabbing assholes. The Democrats' biggest problem now is Biden's age. That is part of what is holding Biden down to 43.8 % of the vote. Their second biggest problem is voters don't like inflation (problem solved) or higher prices (problem unsolvable) either. So what we don't know is whether switching out Harris for Biden will help or hurt. Either way, we need someone who can argue passionately that the solution to 2022 inflation is NOT 2025 tax cuts to billionaires, skyrocketing deficits that will result, and a war on women and their bodies. Trump, as felon, is not getting any more popular. A majority of Americans reject his old pussy grabbing hands. Ugh! The problem is that Biden is getting quickly and alarmingly less popular.

I'll say this ad nauseum. Be careful hat you wish for. Trump lost by millions of votes in 2016. He was President solely due to a quirk in our election system - the electoral college - that was in large part designed to support slavery. It was a legal victory, for sure. But hardly a mandate. He spent his term showering wealth and tax cuts on billionaires like himself. And seeking retribution by gutting a now popular health care law that keeps millions Americans from being sick and broke. Trump and MAGA led Republicans to defeat in 2018. Trump and MAGA led Republicans to defeat in 2020. Trump and MAGA led Republicans to defeat in 2022. Trump and MAGA led Republicans to defeat in 2023. The one bright exception was Kevin McCarthy's smart and disciplined effort to recruit and elect non-White and non-male conservatives to the US House, which helped him achieve the slimmest of Republican majorities. That happened despite Trump's frequently racist and sexist bile. And his inability to keep his gross old disgusting hands off women and their pussies. Ugh! So go ahead and continue to be brilliant, @EmmetK. You have a perfect track record of hating facts, and backing losers who lead you to more losses. Just be careful what you wish for.

Sorry you had to go through that with your mother. I'll never forget when a doctor approached me in a hospital and told me my mother had vascular dementia. I sent a fact sheet I found on the internet out to my Dad and siblings, which opened a discussion about what to do about it. My Mom subsequently spent five years in a nursing home. And it was painful to watch her completely lose herself. My Dad, on the other hand, lived to be almost 100 and died of cognitive heart failure. He visited his wife in the nursing home almost every day, for years. He remained sharp as a tack, mostly. But in his 90's my brothers and I would keep track of his assets for him, put his bills on autopay, arrange for in-home care for things he could no longer do on his own. Therein lies the problem for Biden, and Democrats. Nancy Pelosi summed it up nicely by saying we don't know whether this is an "episode, or a condition." It would be good for both Biden and Trump to take the most rigorous cognitive function tests out there, since that might help answer questions. It won't surprise me if one outcome of this shit show is Congress passing an age limit on Presidents, just like we have a two term limit. For now, we just don't know. Nor do we know if Trump is demented, as well as a narcissistic liar incapable of speaking the truth who has dictatorial tendencies. If there is "deafening advice from almost everyone to quit for the good of the country," I am not hearing it. What I heard yesterday is pretty much every Democratic Governor in America defending Biden - albeit with big reservations. The quiet part is mostly NOT being spoken out loud. At least not yet. Allan Lichtman just answered what I viewed as the $1 million question: how do Democrats get out of this shit show and defeat Trump? I think he's spot on that Democrats have to choose between Plan A and Plan B. Otherwise we get Plan C 🤢: four more years of Trump and MAGA, in all their flaming and hideous glory. Plan A is hold the line and argue this is an episode. If I think about my Dad, that could very well be correct. When my Dad was 81 he was still sharp as a tack, and would be for another decade and more. Even though he was clearly slowing down physically. Plan B is recognize that what happened to your Mom and my Mom could be starting to happen to both Biden and Trump. Again, we just don't know. I'd like them both to take several cognitive tests. If party leaders and donors force Biden out - it now seems clear he will have to be forced out - I think he should simply resign. Let America have a preview of Cackling Kick Ass Kamala. Biden's deputy campaign manager was on TV last night spelling out why, legally and functionally, the Biden/Harris campaign juggernaut is really the only game in town that can defeat Trump. The Wisconsin Democratic chair was on TV talking about how last weekend 1500 or so Biden/Harris volunteers door knocked. You can't replace that infrastructure overnight. If Biden himself can't lead the Biden/Harris ticket, which Democrats chose in the primary overwhelmingly, Harris then has to. Lichtman's Keys are all based on common sense. It makes common sense that if Biden is not the nominee, we do not want a party bloodbath. We want to project order, reason, transparency, and change. We want the nation to see Kick Ass Kamala in action, calling out Trump for his lies and stupidity. And demanding he keep his gross old hands off womens' bodies.

I don't think whoever wrote this has run a national campaign, or talked with anyone who has. This is basically saying, "Let's make extra sure Donald Trump wins. The #1 job of Democrats is to make absolutely sure Trump wins." There is a huge battleship at sea called the Biden/Harris campaign. Right now, even after an awful debate (by Biden, not Harris, who shone in her own interviews) that warship is still pretty close to beating Battleship Trump. To replace a juggernaut with a toy boat would be truly suicidal. That's what replacing Biden or Harris with (name a human being other than Biden or Harris) would do. Some lawyer would likely think of ways to skirt campaign finance and other laws. But it would put any Democrat not named Biden or Harris at a huge disadvantage. All the people who have worked on Presidential campaigns are saying this. Even people like Jim Clyburn, who is talking about a sort of pseudo-primary, are making it clear they think Harris will win the delegates, no doubt with Biden's help. While it would be a bridge too far for Biden, if he is going to step aside Biden should resign. Kamala would be President, and it would be a done deal without a party fight. By voting for Biden in the primary, Democrats actually did vote for Kamala as the #2 that would replace him if needed. If party leaders now decide it is needed, and Biden agrees, Kamala is the one. More important, if the problem to be solved is beating Trump, she would be better off being able to run as an incumbent. Lots of Republicans are saying Biden should resign. They should be careful what they wish for.

First, there are no reports of his dementia. Second, you are false in saying their are reports of his dementia. It is true that lots of people, including me, think Trump is a demented narcissist. Psychologists have written articles about Trump's narcissism. But there is no actual medical or neurological report saying the Felon In Chief is diagnosed with dementia. We do know Trump is a convicted felon, though. That's just a fact. If there is a medical or neurological report stating Biden has dementia, please share it. Otherwise, you have yet again documented your contempt for facts.

Are we talking about the election, or a bath house, Sis? 😲

Thanks for confirming my point.

Ugh! Racism and sexism all rolled into one. The Republican argument is always the same. If she's a woman, a Black, and a Democrat, she is an unqualified loser. How fucking stupid can MAGA dolts be? They don't seem to realize this argument led them to failure in 2018. They don't seem to realize this argument led them to failure in 2020. They don't seem to realize this argument led them to failure in 2022. They don't seem to realize this argument led them to failure in 2023. It's not possible that all White male Republicans are that stupid, is it? They can learn from failure after failure, right?

Actually, if you cared about facts rather than lies and insults, you would know the answer. Kamala Harris is the winner. Joe Biden and Donald Trump are the losers. Biden for sure lost the debate. He looked old and weak. That said, Obama blew the first debate with Romney by even bigger polling margins. Not to mention Reagan's senile moments in his first debate in 1984. So Biden now has to get up off his ass and prove he can fight, or die. If he dies, Kamala takes his place. I would not call her a loser. If you cared about facts (which you don't ... lol) you might have read Tim Ryan's essay, "Kamala Harris Should Be The Democratic Nominee For 2024," which voices what lots of Democrats are saying in private I think Nancy Pelosi just delivered what could be considered the official response of the Democratic Party elite, now that Team Blue has had a week to talk to each other and think about it: Pelosi does nothing without a plan of how she will win. She never let votes come to the House floor when she did not know the outcome. So that statement above already hints at the plan that is in moving into place. Maybe this was just a bad episode of The Joe Show. Or maybe it is a condition. And, by the way, what about that crazy narcissistic liar - Donald Trump - who just said he doesn't know how electricity works and how planes fly? Which is worse? Trump lies, Trump stupidity, or Trump failure? Trump failed in 2018. Trump failed in 2020. Trump failed in 2022. He is a liar, a criminal, and a narcissist. I think Nancy Pelosi is on to something. She is an expert at figuring out how to do three things: 1) lead Trump to failure, 2) lead Trump to failure, and 3) lead Trump to failure. If there is anyone particularly capable of ushering Joe Biden to the side, it is the respected House Speaker who stepped aside herself. And who choreographed a seamless and unifying transition of power in the US House. Here is another fact @EmmetK is unconcerned about. We don't know whether Joe Biden has a condition called dementia. We also don't know whether Donald Trump has a condition called dementia. Pelosi, as an aging leader who wisely stepped aside, is the right person to ask a great question: are EITHER of these old men fit to be our leader? In a CNN poll released today, 75 % of all voters said Democrats have a better chance of winning WITHOUT Biden. That's up from 53 % in January. Even among Democrats, 56 % now say their party has a better chance of winning WITHOUT Biden. By contrast, 60 % of all voters and 83 % of Republicans say they have a better chance of winning with Trump. That may seem like great news for Republicans, and bad news for Democrats. But here's a cool Jedi mind trick. Imagine Kamala Harris is the nominee, and not Joe Biden. Suddenly all that reverses. And then Donald Trump is unquestionably the old stinky narcissistic liar. Voters seem to be beginning to imagine just that. In the new CNN poll, Trump beats Biden 49 to 43. That's essentially unchanged from before the debate, and for most of this year. Meanwhile, Trump beats Harris 47 to 45, which is a statistical tie. In every recent poll I have seen, Harris does as well or better than Biden in a horse race against Trump. Meanwhile, Trump beats Newsom, Buttigieg, and Whitmer by either 4 or 5 points each. It's clear Democratic leaders are not ready to throw Biden under the bus .. yet. But if that moment comes, and it could, Harris is the only realistic replacement. Now is a good time to start talking openly about what that would mean. And especially what it means for a MAGA movement that is stuck with the smelly old narcissistic liar and loser and felon they happily fell in line behind. Check out Kamala talking to voters on the night Joe Biden floundered. It's one night. But I think she defended the accomplishments and vision of their Administration better than he did. David Axelrod is right. Republicans who are calling on Democrats to dump Biden should be careful what they wish for. They may not like the outcome in November if we do.

The AI blowhard is probably not AI. If @EmmetK were an AI creation, he would be able to get facts right. But the real @EmmetK is completely incapable of making factually correct statements. All he can do is insult and say things that are factually incorrect. Factually Wrong @EmmetK just drinks that MAGA KoolAid and believes whatever lies the ex-Felon In Chief spouts. In this post-debate poll, Harris is now seen as significantly stronger than Biden, and more fit to lead the country. What is stunning and sad is that in the new Harris poll Trump beat Biden on EVERY one of 10 debate performance measures: Trump seemed more Presidential. Trump seemed more electable. Trump was a better communicator. Trump had better policy ideas. Trump knew the issues better. This is victory by default, since Biden was incapable of prosecuting the case against Trump. If a lie is not challenged, it becomes the truth. The good news is that in that new Harris poll, Trump leads by ONLY 4 points. The Harris poll has been one of the most consistently pro-Trump polls all year, and usually shows Trump doing a few points better than the RCP average of polls. So it makes two things very clear: 1. The race is close, and either side could win. 2. The biggest drag on Democrats and Biden in particular are concerns about the economy and inflation. To win, Democrats need to win the argument about how they want to grow the economy for the middle and working class - not the rich guys like Trump who want more Republican tax cuts to billionaires. That's the other post-debate poll that Factually Wrong @EmmetK doesn't care to be bothered with. Harris is just as strong, or weak, as Biden in the horse race polls. There is no magic bullet. The main reason it makes no sense to even seriously consider any race on that list other than the top two - Biden OR Harris against Trump - is that any other candidate would have to start raising money and building a campaign from scratch. The only person that could take over the Biden/Harris campaign - and Presidency - if Biden were to drop out or resign is Vice President Harris. It would be political suicide for Democrats to pick someone else who polls no better and has to start from scratch. Not to mention the massive intraparty bloodbath overlooking Kamala Harris would unleash. The good news in this to me is that MAGA is led by an unpopular cult leader who about half of America sees as a criminal and unfit lying narcissist. The Democrats are not a cult. They are a mostly well organized team that had many significant achievements in the last four years. Most of which Joe Biden personally fathered. And many of which required some bipartisan deals on infrastructure or gun control or LGBTQ rights (legal same sex marriage), to name three of many examples. Meanwhile, Republicans want to wage a holy war against the uterus and the most vulnerable members of the LGBTQ community. There was supposed to be a bloodbath when Nancy Pelosi resigned and the various progressive and centrist Democratic factions went to war. Instead, there was unity and a calm and professional transition. There was supposed to be a bloodbath when Joe Biden announced last year he would not run again., Media bed wetters kept saying the knives would come out and Team Harris and Team Newsom and Team Whitmer would start attacking each other. Never happened. If the Joe Biden of 2024 were even the Joe Biden of 2022, let alone 2012, this debate would not be happening. However it is resolved, party leaders know the last thing Democrats need is a bloodbath. And the first thing they need is unity. David Axelrod said on CNN right after Biden's miserable debate that Republicans better be careful what they wish for. Because if they get their wish, and Biden steps aside, that probably won't work well for Republicans, he said. He's right. If the problem to be solved is that we have an old leader who is unpopular, particularly among Blacks and minorities and young voters that Democrats need to win, replacing that leader with a younger Black and Asian American woman who is a prosecutor by training is one logical solution. If all the powers that be - Obama, Clinton, Pelosi, Schumer, Jeffries, donors - decide Biden simply has to go, I would bet money they will tell him he has to resign and let Kamala run as the incumbent President. That is extremely unlikely to happen, because Biden will say no. But if the next month or two shows a continuously floundering Biden who is incapable of prosecuting the case against Trump, it may be the best solution to Biden's growing age problem.

Exactly!

I just posted the interview of Lichtman in a different thread before I read this. Here it is again. I think he is right, like every other time since 1984. (Abby Phillips below says "9 out of 10". In 2000 Lichtman predicted Gore would win. Which he did if you look at popular vote. Since 2000 he has stated that his predictions are based on the electoral college system, not the popular vote.) The hypothetical question I would like someone to ask Lichtman is this: what would happen if Biden resigned as President now, and by August President Harris was nominated near unanimously at the convention? Lichtman's argument is that by dumping Biden Democrats lose 2 of his 13 keys: incumbency, and no divisive party contest. Biden stepping aside as a candidate and having an open convention would potentially recreate 2016. He argues not having an incumbent and having a bitter party feud were two of the six keys that led to Hillary's downfall and Trump's win. A bitter bloodbath is almost a given if you start with the assumption that Harris has to go, too. Many Blacks and women would disagree. Probably with fatal consequences like in 2016. If Biden resigned now, it would seemingly avoid at least one of these two negatives. It would avoid a bitter party fight. Harris would be the incumbent, who actually led her potential Democratic primary opponents in almost every poll taken this year. A new poll shows her leading Newsom in a primary 39 to 18, with everyone else left in the dust. The same poll says voters view her as stronger than Biden, and more fit to lead the country. If Biden released all his delegates to the new President, there would be no fight. Harris also would seemingly meet the standards Lichtman sets for the advantages of incumbency. She could set the national agenda, which would be a continuation of what Biden and her have done so far. The media spotlight would shine on her, not Biden or Trump, as our new President. Arguably, she could defend the Biden/Harris agenda - and go after Trump's lies and macho bullshit - more forcefully than Biden now can. I am not arguing Biden should do this. And he almost certainly will NOT do it. But if the point of this exercise is stopping Trump from winning in 2024, it is the only alternative that makes any sense if the rare chance that Biden resigns under pressure actually comes to pass. If I believe what I read, the emerging plan is to put Biden in front of more one on one interviews and interactive town halls to prove the debate was just one bad night. That makes sense to me. Trump and Biden should both be given lots of rope. And lots of opportunities to hang themselves.

If someone is to blame for this, I blame the people who voted for Biden in the 2020 primary. It was obvious then he was old. That said, it was also obvious the #2 choice, Sanders, was also quite old. Anyone who thought it through could have predicted that almost every President runs for a second term. And the few who can but don't (Truman in 1952) or who quit (LBJ in 1968) usually help bring about defeat for their party. All of this was an argument for nominating someone like Harris or Buttigieg in 2020, so we had a younger incumbent in 2024. We didn't do that. So the circling of wagons around Biden now makes sense. Just like the circling of wagons around another old man, Trump, does for Team MAGA. Oh well. It's not a shocker that in 2020 people were more focused on beating Trump in 2020 than gaming out 2024. So, really, no one is to blame. Speaking of beating Trump, what the media bed wetters seem to ignore is that the magic bullet they want simply does not exist. A post-debate poll showed both Biden or Harris losing to Trump by 3 points (48 to 45). But every other potential candidate (Whitmer, Newsom, Pritzker, Shapiro) also loses to Trump by 2 to 3 points. So the argument is we should dump Biden and Harris, who have a massive campaign infrastructure in place, and replace them with someone who has no campaign infrastructure and is no more popular than Biden or Harris. Huh? There's a reason why the media bed wetters are media bed wetters, and not campaign strategists. Should Democrats replace Biden? Hear what historian thinks There's my buddy Allan Lichtman saying that the debate will have "zero" impact on the outcome. Just like Romney thrashing Obama by an even larger percentage in the first 2012 debate had "zero" impact on Obama winning. I think he is right. What's obvious is that Democrats are facing headwinds in keeping the White House in 2024. All year long polls have shown that is true regardless of who we nominate. I think we can mostly thank post-COVID global inflation for that. Almost every incumbent party (AMLO being a huge exception) in democracies across the world are facing the same problem. But it makes common sense that having an incumbent who got a lot of stuff done, and avoiding a party bloodbath, are probably wise ideas. The media bed wetters don't seem to get this. They seem to just want drama. What the bed wetters also don't seem to get is that all roads that involve dumping Biden lead to Kamala Harris. That poll I cited above says in a primary Harris would beat her closest opponent, Newsom, 2 to 1. Trashing a Black female Veep for a White male invites civil war among Democrats that would make the current bed wetting, or the bitter feelings between Clintonites and Sandernistas in 2016, look like child's play. If Democrats want to win in 2024, and they don't want Biden, they have to embrace Harris. The idea that we instead go in a smoke filled room and a rich White guy like Newsom or Pritzker somehow emerges makes no sense. It makes Democrats look like authoritarians. All that said, if the powers that be really have the power to dump Biden against his will, I would be very excited about a Harris/Whitmer ticket. Two strong women running against Trump would be energizing in exactly the way Biden is not. Whitmer on the ballot would help lock down Michigan, and probably other Midwest swing states as well. The way to do it would be for Biden to simply resign "for the good of the country" and let Harris run as an incumbent. I am not sure if that would meet Lichtman's incumbency key. But if Harris were suddenly President and Biden released all his delegates to her at the convention, it would avoid the party bloodbath that an open convention would invite. That is the best argument for dumping BOTH Biden and Trump now. Both are old men. And voters have good reason to think neither will be fit to govern in 2028. At age 82 in Jan 2025, Biden would have an over 1 in 3 probability of dying in office. At 78, Trump would have over a 1 in 4 chance. They would go into second terms with life expectancies of 7 and 8 more years, respectively. Kamala Harris would have a life expectancy of 24 more years. Biden resigning would immediately reverse the dynamic and make Trump the crazy old guy, while allowing both Harris and Biden to defend a good four year track record. The chances of Biden deciding to do this under pressure seem to be about 1 in 10, at best. To end where I started, the smart way to prevent this current bedwetting would have been to nominate Harris, or anyone younger, in 2020. Democrats did not do that. But just like in 2020 I think we have several good options to keep Trump from winning a second term. Lichtman's reading of his own Keys, which have been right every time since 1984, suggest either a President Biden or a President Harris would be likely to win in November.

There's a double entendre there. Trump is nuts. But if Biden starts talking to an empty chair, I don't think it's possible for him to stumble and mumble more than Clint Eastwood did. Or, here's a thought. If Trump is a no show, let Obama sit in the empty chair and talk to Trump's empty podium?