stevenkesslar

Hunter Biden Got a Sweetheart Deal and Everyone Knows It. We Have a Two-Tiered Justice System | Opinion So are Republicans really going to do this, to entertain Democrats and help Biden, for the rest of 2023 and 2024? Really? Is that really how desperate they are to force Americans to eat shit every day until next November? Is their thirst for party suicide so acute (with the exception of traditional Republicans with names like Sununu and Christie and Barr - and maybe 1 in 4 actual Republican voters) that they want to kill themselves with bullets even before the pillow fight with lightweight and senile Joe Biden begins? Please, bring it on! So I'll get two things out of the way. First, Hunter Biden is a piece of shit. Period. Sorry, Joe. I voted for you. And I will again in 2024. But I have to say it. Your one living son is a piece of shit. I'd be happy to see the little entitled brat in jail. And, btw, did you read what he said about your "cunt" of a wife, Jill, in those texts? What a piece of shit! I decided to resurrect this old thread from pre-2020 because I was loud at the time that Hunter was serious enough baggage for Joe that maybe it should have been disqualifying. But, we now know, it wasn't. Being a socialist was disqualifying for Bernie. Bernie made Joe look so much better by comparison on Super Tuesday. So don't be shocked if Trump does the same, again, in 2024. Second, the polls say very consistently that most voters view Joe Biden as too old, rather than too criminal. Donald is the one they really tend to see as too criminal. Including many Republicans. But I quoted @TotallyOz above because this really should have been settled back in 2019 or so. Like Oz, I was singing the praises of Elizabeth Warren back then. Had she been nominated, historian and always correct Presidential election predicter Alan Lichtman would argue any Democrat (even a woman!) would have beaten Trump in 2020. If she were running again, we would not be worried about her age. Or her alleged corruption. Or even her recipes!!! So I was a Warren fan boy. In part BECAUSE Joe was old in 2019, too. But I am a realist. It is what it is. Joe is the guy. Even if he dropped dead tomorrow, Kamala would be the girl. And, whatever you think of her, every single poll shows she'd do worse than Joe in 2024. At least as of now. So, Joe's the guy. Even loudmouths like Gavin Newsom, who I'm sure would like to be POTUS, get that. So with those two stipulations, I can't believe Republicans want to dig their hole even deeper by forcing even more shit into the mouths of Americans every day. Isn't lying about the 2020 election enough? Isn't lying about raping or sexually harassing women enough? Isn't Trump lying about his taxes enough? Isn't Trump lying to the FBI, the DOJ, and even his own lawyers enough? He has gotten away with murder his whole miserable criminal life. And he knows he could shoot a cop in the middle of Fifth Avenue, or the US Capitol. And his ardent followers would blame the crime on the dead cop Trump killed. So really? Really? We're now going to have 15 or so months of this shit shoved into our mouths every day? About how we have two different systems of justice? And how Donald Trump is an even bigger victim than Jesus Christ? Really? And The Mighty MAGAttes still wonder why Republicans like Christie and Sununu say Republicans lost everything they could have won in 2020 and 2022 because of this miserable, lying, criminal narcissist? To their credit, Christie and Sununu and Barr believe in the power of conservative ideas to win. What does MAGA believe in? That crime should not be punished? That Newsweek article above is the mildest version of the crap being served in every right wing blog around. The hard core version is that Biden needs to be impeached, immediately. Because he is obviously guilt of bribery. Apparently MTG got the memo. Of course, Republicans in swing districts and swing states may lose their seats over even more divisive lies in 2024. But, like those Republicans are saying, who ever accused MTG of being a team player? Or even of being factually correct? The massive factual gap between Republicans saying "Lock Her Up" in 2016 and saying "Stop Persecuting Trump" in 2024 is entertaining for Democrats like me. I love irony. And it really does suggest they don't have any strategy, or logic, or facts, on their side. And this just deepens the hole. 62 % of Independents just said in a CNN poll that because of these indictments, Trump should step aside now. How does whining about being persecuted help Trump with that 62 %? Trump doesn't want to go to jail. But when a US Attorney Trump appointed while POTUS decides not to send Hunter Biden to jail, Trump whines. How does that help win the 62 % that want him to go away now? How does it even pave the way for Trump to get pardoned when he is found guilty, too? Whatever people think about whatever "deal" Hunter should have gotten for owning a gun while being a drug addict and cheating on his taxes, Republicans are now on record as being against political "deals." Which is odd. Since they seem to want the mother of all political deals for Trump. They want a pardon. Or, better, let's just pretend he won in 2020 and never lied about, or lost, anything. Had Trump cooperated with the Feds like Hunter Biden did, he might well have gotten a slap on the wrist rather than an indictment. And he still might get a plea deal. And even if Trump pleads innocent, and is found guilty, most Republicans still want to let him completely off the hook with a pardon. And the logic of saying that, when they want both Hillary and Hunter locked up, is ........... ? The good news for Trump is that this probably increases the chances that Americans, including Democrats, feel that no matter how criminal he is, we just shouldn't lock Trump's criminal ass up. He was POTUS, after all. Maybe we just lock him in Mar A Lago, with lots of documents to sort through. The deal with Hunter is also implicitly bad news for the Republican case against Senile Criminal Joe Biden. I mostly believe Jamie Raskin. Who claims that by the time Barr and Trump parted ways over Trump's lies and criminality in 2020, Barr's DOJ and Trump's FBI had investigated all the Burisma Bullshit sufficiently enough to decide there was nothing other than Hunter's legal influence peddling there. Back in 2019 I posted a great Atlantic article on Page 1 of this thread about how legal influence peddling sucks. I still feel that way about Hunter. Most people do. But if we are going to punish him, how do we punish Ivanka? Like for all those patents she got in China while Daddy was POTUS? Or Billion Dollar Baby Jared, whose Saudi patrons have invested billions in him after he did them four years of policy favors? What punishment does Jared deserve? Hopefully nothing involving bone saws! If Joe Biden took a $5 million bribe, and Bill Barr felt the claim was based on anything other than the flimsiest of allegations - or FBI forms reporting hearsay - it is hard to imagine he would have kicked it out of Trump's DOJ. Even to a Trump-appointed US Attorney. But, Barr says he did in fact punt all that stuff to a Trump-appointed US Attorney for "further investigation." We all just learned the results of that investigation. Would a Trump-appointed US Attorney sweep a $5 million bribe to Hunter and The Big Guy under the rug? I doubt it. So, again, Republicans just seem to want to dig their hole deeper before 2024. But, hey. Go ahead, MTG. Impeach Biden, anyway. No one ever accused you of having good political judgment. Or facts. Being the excellent propagandist that Sean Hannity is (at least when he's not with Gavin Newsom, who rebuts all his BS in rapid fire fact telling), Sean knows that one of the best things Republicans have going for them is that 57 % of Americans think Joe Biden took a $5 million bribe. I find THAT almost impossible to believe. Only because it has been so clear, for decades, how the Biden variety of DC legal influence peddling works. Arguably, even his sister did it, by being a paid campaign chief or top adviser. For sure his brothers peddled influence. Bro Jim will even state the obvious. That having the last name Biden doesn't hurt. Hunter just took it too far. But even he didn't go far enough, or resist in the way Trump did, that got him slammer time. His Mom is probably right. Hunter has poor judgment. But all of this strongly suggests that Joe Biden's political judgment is good. And he is an expert at keeping his ass well within the legal lines. The thing that worked for Republicans about Hillary and her emails is that even she admitted she had all those emails. And that same poll Hannity quotes above documents that even half of Democrats, including me, feel Hillary obstructed justice by acid washing her emails. Meanwhile, lawyers will spend the next year with a constant drip drip drip of facts, facts, and only facts documenting how Trump lied to the FBI, lied to his own lawyers, lied to his own J6 followers who are headed to jail, and lied to the American public in general about losing an election. And asked other Republicans to lie with him. So at some point Republicans are going to need proof of Biden's $5 million bribe. As Joe himself said, "Where's the money?" So far, they have nada. Maybe Bill Barr is a crappy lawyer. And maybe the Trump-appointed US Attorney who just gave Hunter what Trump views as a slap on the wrist sucks, too. But none of this suggests that there is any evidence whatsoever of Joe Biden taking a $5 million bribe. I know this whole long post focuses on 1000 % negative crap. So I'll end with the opposite: an optimistic rant by Arnold Schwarzenegger. Which is connected to my main points. I think Arnie is right that people are hungering for something better than this. And more unifying. Which may be a reason most Independents want neither Trump, nor Biden. But, if that is the choice they have, wanting to get beyond the lies and constant divisiveness will probably help Biden again. Like it seems to have in 2020 and 2022. We'll see. But I'd bet on Arnie being right about Trump. I don't have Arnie's good looks or box office mojo. But, like him, I'm good at math. He's right that having the conservative base - or at least the ones who will subordinate raw politics to principles and facts - is just not enough. You need Independents, too. What does it tell us that 62 % of Independents (and 85 % of voters who are NOT Republicans) want Trump to drop out now?

Barr has been surprisingly refreshing to listen to. For many liberals he is still kind of a fascist himself. But what is helpful about him right now is he is bending over backwards to say there is something called "the law". And it is not the same as politics or partisanship. And this idea that the law means one thing for Republicans, and another thing for Democrats - which is what Republicans are having a huge pity party about - is just not the truth. Period. The law is the law. And Trump's former AG knows something about the law. Period. That probably explains Barr being precise in saying that whatever would have to be proved in court on J6 is not the same as what has to be proved about Trump obstructing justice with the military and nuclear documents. I'm not a lawyer. But I suspect Barr is on target in arguing that it would be hard to prove in court that Trump wanted a violent riot. Or he specifically wanted people to beat the shit out of cops. Or he specifically wanted them to kill Mike Pence and Nancy Pelosi. Or even that he specifically wanted some kind of revolution. To use Barr's words, as much as I view lying about losing an election and trying to subvert democracy as the bigger crime, it is probably legally correct that none of what Trump did on J6 makes him "toast," legally. Whereas on obstructing justice by keeping military and nuclear documents, Trump is "toast," as Barr said. A lawyer like him would probably know. In @Lucky's defense, the indictment he was referring to is Bragg's case. One can certainly argue that, in retrospect, all it did was draw support to Trump and help him raise money. Kudos to Paul Ryan and John Bolton, two more lifelong conservatives who are loudmouths about this. Ryan on CBS just referred to the Bragg case as "petty." But he made a big point about how Trump fucking with the government to treat military and nuclear secrets as his own personal records is just wrong. And illegal. Bolton pointed out that the DOJ or anyone should put pressure on NYC and Bragg to let the other indictment (or maybe indictments?) go first, since they take precedence. My theory, which Ryan and Bolton and Barr are all reinforcing, is that each indictment is like a nail in the coffin. While the J6 and Georgia "find me 11,780 votes" indictments may not be as clean legally, they sure seem to be like more horrific offenses, and huge nails, to me. And to most Independents, according to I think every poll. I'll add RCP's AB Stoddard as another right of center thinker who says very clearly, "Enough! This man is a fucking spoiled brat. We should not feel sorry for him. How long are we going to tolerate this total bullshit? It's abusive. I hate it." She almost says it that bluntly. I hope Republicans get their way regarding the double standard with Hillary Clinton. There's three very important things we know about Hillary, if we want to be fair and avoid a double standard. First, the bumper sticker of Election Year 2016 was, "Lock Her Up!" Taken literally, it is okay for me, as a Democrat, to follow that standard and argue Trump is guilty before proven innocent. So he should be locked up immediately. Second, Clinton was not indicted. But her emails were talked about all year in 2016. Let's just assume for purposes of being fair that Clinton's emails and obstruction were the same as Trump's legally - which they are not, of course. The point is, assuming it's the same thing, we of course need to talk every fucking day about how Trump is now a total piece of shit - a murderous traitor and scumbag - that needs to be locked up. Now! Just like Hillary was in 2016. Fair is fair. Third, few people realize this, but Hillary lost the election in 2016. (She actually won the popular vote by the millions. But most Democrats - unlike most Republicans - respect The Constitution.) So if the fair and uniform standard is that in the final week before the 2016 election the FBI was biting huge pieces of Hillary's ass off, that is what they should do to Trump. Rip his fat ass apart. And be precise. Who care's about 2023? If we are being fair, the FBI needs to make sure it drives a seriously fucking sharp machete straight up Lock Him Up Don's law breaking ass IN THE WEEK BEFORE PEOPLE VOTE IN 2024. Neither Comey, nor the FBI, said their intent was to make sure Hillary lost in 2016. But she did lose. And Hillary and I both agree that the machete they drove up her ass IN THE WEEK BEFORE PEOPLE VOTED IN 2016 was probably the fatal nail in her coffin. So, if we are being fair, we need to save the best for last. We need to make horrific charges against Trump. Hopefully not even based in fact, like Comey's October surprise in 2016. Fair is fair. Republicans who whine about double standards perhaps don't know that Hillary lost in 2016, thanks to the FBI. Or maybe that is the double standard. Perhaps what they really mean is that it's okay that what Hillary did maybe cost her the Presidency in 2016. But in 2024, we want Trump to be above the law, unlike Hillary. I'll leave it to conservatives like Bill Barr and Paul Ryan and John Bolton to help the MAGA True Patriots to figure that shit out. 😯 Good luck, guys. Speaking of Hillary, I think the real danger here is that, in the weird world of politics, this does the opposite of what it did in 2016. In 2016 all the allegations involving national security and breaking laws definitely hurt Hillary. The polls showed it, and she lost the election. If there is something similar, it is what Paul Ryan just argued. Republicans would have won the Senate and more House seats but for Trump in 2022. He argued that Trump is the one candidate who will hand the election, and the Senate, to Biden in 2024. Because these are all nails in his coffin. But he also noted that politics in never linear. So in some weird way, the danger is that a majority of Americans actually feel sorry for Trump. Because he is right. He is simply be persecuted. And the majority of fair-minded Americans know it. The polls, and the 2020 and 2022 election results, suggest the exact opposite. Barr is saying loud and clear Trump broke the law. And, thus, is "toast." But who knows? Trump and MAGA are sure hoping that people feel sorry for our poor little rich juvenile delinquent. Stranger things have happened. I'll be very broken record about this. In the end, I think it's the economy, stupid. Or, a bit more precisely, it's the recession, stupid. As of yesterday one bullish stock talking head said we are on the verge of an expansion. And the S & P will end 2023 at 4800. Meaning by Election Day 2024 we will be well into all time highs. Mike Wilson, the Bear In Chief at Morgan Stanley, says the S & P ends 2023 at 3900. Which one is correct, and the implications on the economy and inflation, probably matters more to Biden than Trump's indictments. Happily, most talking heads - bull or bear - premise their arguments on the idea that by next Fall inflation will be back to "normal." Wilson thinks that will hurt corporate earnings, and the S & P. Because the free ride for big corporations being able to crank up profits to record levels based on COVID is over. Not his exacts words. But if he's right, that may actually help Biden.

There's a lot of Democratic and media types using the word "toast" to describe Trump these days. It's interesting that Trump's former AG is using it as well. On Fox News, no less. I think Barr realizes that when the history books are written, he doesn't want to go down as a Watergate-style co-conspirator. It's also worth reviving this headline from May 2020, when Barr actually was the Attorney General. And wanted to prove he was no Rudy Ghouliani: Barr says it's unlikely Justice Department will investigate Obama or Biden "The legal tactic has been to gin up allegations of criminality by one's political opponents based on the flimsiest of legal theories," Barr said. That's months after Barr had been fact checking Ghouliani's Biden bribery allegations. And one month before the FBI memo was written memorializing what is basically hearsay. Jamie Raskin claims the matter was closed in 2020. Barr disputes that and says they sent the stuff to Delaware for further investigation. Either way, Barr's words on Biden in 2020 speak for themselves. Just like his words on Trump today. I think we can be sure that if in Summer 2020 Trump's Justice Dept. had actual evidence that Joe Biden had accepted a $5 million bribe, Barr would have been arguing that Biden was ............................ what's the word? .............................."toast." Instead, Trump is toast. And Biden is President. Case closed, hopefully. You didn't even have to be Sherlock Holmes to figure this one out. 😉

Be my guest. Post all you want about Chasten. The Poitico article is longer than most of my longest posts. And well written. Can't get enough of Chasten, @Lucky? 😉

Because, @Mavica is hopefully correct about this: As I said above, I hope he is right. But everything in politics is relative. If the economy is booming and inflation is a low single digit in 17 months, another reason to vote for Biden/Harris. If we're in a recession, another reason to vote for Trump. I would not bet on how that plays out. Although, it's worth noting that with this second indictment the betting pools just lowered Trump's odds of winning the Presidency. Maybe they know something. I keep going back to Alinsky's maxim: the action is in the reaction. So, yes, the true and pure MAGA minority will be for Trump. They will defend every toxic lie. That's part of the reaction. But that's a majority of the Republican Party, which is a minority. They can't win an election based on their true and pure version of lies and pus. And, for some strange reason, many Republicans and Independents don't like to swallow huge buckets of pus. That's the other part of the reaction. And the more clear it is that, yup, these are lies and this is pus and pus is disgusting and this is disgusting shit you really don't want to swallow ................... geez, who knew? The less people want to swallow it. Because, really, it is pus. The theory and interpretations about 2022 @Mavica may be referring to is that Democrats did a good job targeting certain swing Senate and House races, and outspent and organized Republicans in them. I posted a very long ass essay from a well known poli sci prof that argued just that, somewhat convincingly. That could help explain why Democrats (other than Max Frost) didn't do so well in Florida. They focused on seats they thought they could win. Like in Georgia and Arizona. Which they won. That said, I don't fully buy it. At least in blue states and purple states, the pattern was amazingly clear. If you were a generic conservative for conservative stuff, including DeSantis, you tended to do well. If you swallowed the Trump pus and spewed pus-filled lies about election bullshit, you lost. Even in red states, like Kentucky this year, the pure MAGA candidates that spewed election lies tended not to do so well in Republican primaries. Which underscores the point. Conservatives, running as normal conservatives, did pretty well in 2022. They should have, given that the opposition party usually does do well in midterms. In particular, DeSantis did really well in Florida, compared to 2018. Most likely because he was perceived as handling the hurricane well, with something like 2 to 1 approval among Floridians in polls. So there is no reason to think DeSantis, running as a conservative in a general election, would do badly. Especially if he's running against President Recession or President Inflation. As a Democrat. I'd never vote for either Trump or DeSantis. But I would feel a lot better about the risk of a conservative like DeSantis winning than I would about a pus-filled liar and rapist and democracy killer like Trump winning. I'd of course rather see the Republicans nominate Tim Scott or Nikki Haley. But who's kidding who? They barely register in the polls. For 2024, the Republicans will nominate some version of a MAGA White guy. Period.

Chasten Buttigieg Has Grown Up. So Has His Hometown. A touching portrayal of Chasten. And, indirectly, the changes in Michigan and the whole world since he was a kid. I'll add one thing. Like Michelle Obama and a minority of other highly respected political spouses, one thing that works well for him is that he seems to honestly just feel his way through things. In a way that we, especially Gay men, can relate to. And, like Michelle, he always goes high. It's exciting to think someday he could be the First Gentleman. 😊

Great. What do we know? Or are you assuming people can read your mind? 😉 I tend to agree with Republican analysts who feel generic conservatives did well. (Kemp killed Abrams and Abbott killed Beto by convincing margins, for example.) And would have done better (in swings states like Georgia and Arizona) if Trump had not tainted so many candidates with his lies. Okay, let's clear this up. I'm dumb, and try to hide it by being verbose. So you're probably right. It's really dumb ass to think a recession could cost someone the Presidency, right? That said, Alan Lichtman, who actually does write books, has guessed every Presidential election right in advance since 1984. In 2019 he was pretty clear that, without spelling it out, Trump was on track to win in 2020. By the time he actually made a prediction in August 2020, he said Trump would lose because three things had changed in the last year: 1) long term economic growth tanked, 2) there was a recession, (both due to COVID), and 3) mass social unrest. So, basically, Lichtman predicted correctly that the economy would be the key nail in Trump's coffin. It was. So dumb ass as it sounds, I'm worried about a recession now being the nail in Biden's coffin that gets Trump elected. If Harris were the nominee, it would be worse. She would not be the incumbent, presumably. And just getting her nominated would be a huge party fight. And she wouldn't be the nominee, anyway. Because every single poll shows that in an open fight with Kamala and Hillary and Pete and Bernie all running, Biden would win again. Just like he did in 2020. In terms of Biden being blamed for things, well ... what is he not being blamed for? He's being blamed for being too old, for starters. Including by over 2 in 3 Independents, who think he can't handle the job. Trump has now been indicted twice, with a third indictment likely on the way. And he's almost as old as Biden. So while I view it as wildly ironic, Trump supporters don't seem to blame Trump for any of his crimes. Meanwhile, people do blame Biden for being too old. And inflation. And the economy. And other things. Hope you're right .... or not. Because that statement can be taken two ways. If it's a replay of 2020 in the sense that people just want Biden more than Trump, you're right. I know I do. But I'm in the minority that approves of the job Biden is doing. And that does think he clearly can handle the job. Again, how many huge bipartisan laws has he signed now? How many big laws did Trump sign, other than his partisan deficit swelling giveaways to billionaire campaign donors? If it's a replay of 2020 in the sense that people want a change, because they don't like the track we are on, Biden loses. In November 2020 about 60 % of Americans said we were on the wrong track. Now it's 65 %. That's scary. Again, hope you're right. And at the end of the day people say that even if they feel the economy sucks, Trump sucks worse for all kinds of reasons. I sure feel that way. But I wouldn't be too confident about it. It was actually right about now in 1983 that supposedly one term Reagan broke out of a crappy approval rating in the high 30's, because the economy was improving. By the end of 1983 his approval rating was back over 50 %. And the economy, and stock market, were on a tear. He, and the S & P 500, never looked back until he won in a landslide in November 1984. If we dodge the recession, and the economy is better in a year, I feel confident about Biden. If we instead get mired in a recession (the majority of Americans say this feels like a recession now) I'm not as confident. But to the main point in my post. I assume we agree that swallowing the pus of Trump's democracy-killing lies and bullshit and indictment spree is going to be hard for lots of Independents. Even if they feel Biden is too old. And inflation really bothers them.

I like the way these indictments are coming down. Whether by design or coincidence, they started with the weakest links in the chain. Not that infidelity, sexual harassment, and payoffs to shut people up about them are nothing. Trump allegedly keeping top secrets illegally is a bigger deal. But not as bad as, "Oh, fuck democracy. I'll just lie about losing a Presidential election and start a riot at the Capitol. Beat the shit of some cops, maybe, too. And infest the entire body politic with lies, lies, lies, and hate, hate, hate, and my own super sucky pus. Who cares, anyway?" The pus-swollen sore just keeps growing bigger. So I'm fine with multiple tries at lancing the infected boil from our democracy. No one knows, or ever will know, how Democrats beat the red wave last Fall. But we do know that anyone who looked like a principled conservative did well. I'd include Kemp, Sununu, DeWine, and also DeSantis on that list. DeSantis has never said Trump won the 2020 election. Meanwhile, all the MAGA spawn that spouted Trump Lies and Trump Pus went down uniformly. Except in red states or districts where Trump Lies are like Gospel and Trump Pus is like Holy Water. So thrice married Trump will be running in 2024 probably thrice indicted. And the whole thing about lying about the election and starting a riot and beating the shit out of some cops will be at the center of the debate. I still think that if there is a recession, Trump probably wins. There are even worse things than lies and pus, I guess. But this makes it harder for moderates and independents to hold their nose and open their mouths and swallow four more years of Trump Lies and Pus. Meanwhile, how many bipartisan deals has Senile Old Joe signed into law while Trump lies and oozes pus?

I'm posting this here since it relates to how Biden/Harris does in 2024. These are articles about two studies that bode well for Democrats in 2024. They both suggest that Democrats were able to stop a red wave in 2022 through effective mobilization of their voters where it really mattered. If they did it in 2022, they can do it again in 2024, presumably. Why the 2022 midterms broke for Democrats and what that means for 2024 As a former community organizer, it's not hard for me to believe the idea that organizing and mobilization made a difference where it really mattered. This is consistent with what Senate campaign head Gary Peters said both before and after the midterms. His focus was on face to face voter contact, he said. It may have helped that Democrats were weak at that in 2020, compared to Republicans, because of different perceptions about COVID and human contact. That problem was apparently solved in 2022. It would also fit with this theory that Republicans, who did lots of organizing and voter registration under the leadership of Ron D, got the red wave in Florida that skipped the Rust Belt. It will always be a mystery to me why our first and only Community Organizer In Chief, Barack Obama, let the DNC and party machinery collapse on his watch. Lots of people think that helped drive the destruction of state and local Democratic benches in Obama's time. Or was it just the overall reaction against Democrats in 2010 and 2014, that nothing could have stoppedd? Mystery At The Midterm: What Happened To The Red Wave? That academic, who makes me look concise by comparison, provides lots of evidence that Democratic money, mobilization and organizing made a huge difference in the key swing states. His main argument is that there was a red wave. But Democrats built a breakwater that stopped it in most of the places that mattered. Campbell, the author, dismisses much of the conventional wisdom about 2022. Like the idea that there was national reaction against Trump. Or that a youth blue wave countered the older MAGA red wave. That matters a lot for 2024. I personally have a hard time believing Trump was NOT the toxic horse that derailed the GOP cart. Basically by shitting all over the wheels with his democracy killing lies and democracy raping bullshit. What was particularly interesting about 2022 is that all the relatively "normie" conservatives that did not drench themselves in Trump's bile did well. DeWine, DeSantis, Sununu, Kemp. Meanwhile, pretty Kari Lake showed up to the Guv's Ball all fashion forward, drenched in Trump's vomit. Voters rejected her, and most of the other pus-covered election deniers. Geez. Why could that be? Same trend seemingly just played out in Kentucky, where a few more election denying turds were flushed down the toilet in Republican primaries. But then, I'm biased. 😯 We'll learn more in 2024.

Got it. I read stories from every site mentioned so far.. Politico is my go to site every day. Since it's all politics, all well written, and all well reasoned given my point of view. Real Clear Politics is my other go to site every day precisely because it offers a "Bernie to Bannon" perspective. It used to be viewed as more or less truly independent. Since MAGA times it has taken a right turn. As a lefty, that is why I like it. They'll post articles from lots of left wing places like In These Times or The Nation, but also even more right wing pieces on the same subjects. So you get a lot of different perspectives, if you want them.

Holy Lucky lottery ticket, Batman! I think the race is over. And neither Biden nor Trump will win. Randy Rainbow is throwing his weight, and his show tunes, behind Guv Meatball. I think that gets Ron the Gay vote, the Fashion vote, and the Broadway vote. That's a majority, right? 😉

I know this is a thread about third parties. And part of your point is the Democrats need to moderate to win. Especially in states like Kentucky. So I thought the results of the primaries in Kentucky and elsewhere were encouraging, as Politico reports it: The Republican Party is an interesting mess. David Cameron, a McConnell protege, is exactly the kind of face I hope the Republican Party keeps building: normal, multi-racial conservative capitalism. I'm glad he put Crazy Rich Croft to bed. Just like the "normal" Republican Secretary of State put another Trumpy sounding election denier to bed. That said, Cameron apparently thinks he has to run on a culture war agenda about trannies and churches. And somehow Trump endorsed the right person in this race. While DeSantis somehow managed to reinforce the idea that he is the very conservative guy, kind of mean, kind of a bully, who backs losers. When it seems like he would want to be the competent Guv, like Beshear, who handles disasters well and wins. Mostly, I like where my Democratic Party is. Beshear knows his limits in Kentucky. I think Biden knows his limits in a political environment where Kentucky doesn't matter to his re-election chances in 2024. But Pennsylvania does. Speaking of which, Democrats kept the Pennsylvania House and elected a pragmatist as the likely first female Mayor in Philly. I was surprised the "Black progressive" won in Chicago. But he was running against a White kind of conservative. I think Philly is a good example of the tug of war Democrats are having between "progressive" and "pragmatic" voices. I'm biased. But it seems clear there is room for both. And we need both to win. In the case of Philly, the "Black pragmatist" who wants more cops on the street won. If the goal is to win and govern, I'd rather be Beshear than Cameron. And I'd rather be Biden than Trump or DeSantis. To make this book length, I of course have to add one more point. So I'll repeat that I'm not sure about third parties. I watched an interview of Allan Lichtman a few weeks ago on some radio show. He pointed out, no surprise, that nominating Biden is the best chance Democrats have to win in 2024. Because he is the incumbent. And he will prevent a bloody intra-party fight, like the Republicans will likely have. Lichtman did not mention it. But a strong third party candidate would be a third potential nail in Biden's coffin. So Lichtman's model, which he used to predict every POTUS race since 1984 correctly in advance, says that you need 6 nails out of 13 for Biden's coffin to be nailed shut in 2024. Him being the incumbent, with no party war, and no strong third party candidate, would eliminate three of those nails. Lichtman said it's too early to predict 2024. But the four things he is watching are the long term economy, whether there is a recession, and whether there is a military success and/or a military failure. In other words, important stuff. Not polls or bullshit. Not "age." He did predict, I'd bet correctly, that "age" will turn out to be a lot of useless noise. Just like it was for Reagan in 1984.

And here I always thought HE was "The One." So this is arguably a bit off topic. But Biden's approval ratings have something to do with whether Biden will win in 2024. They have tanked in Rasmussen in the last week. Granted, Rasmussen tends to be biased toward Republicans. But, biased or not, they have a daily rating you can compare apples to apples. Biden Approval Index History Back in Summer 2022 when inflation peaked Biden often had a -30 approval index on Rasmussen. Meaning the difference between those who strongly approve and strongly disapprove. The most recent rating that bad was July 22, 2022 when 49 % strongly disapproved and only 18 % approved, for a -31 approval index. As recently as April 11, 2023 Biden was down to - 9, meaning 31 % strongly approved and 40 % strongly disapproved. Presumably the easing of inflation has a lot to do with that. That's the first time since Summer 2021 Biden's negative approval index was as low as a single digit. So he seemed to be recovering. As of today, it's -27, with 48 % strong disapproval and only 21 % strong approval. That down from -12 just a week ago! It has to be the debt ceiling/default scare. The polls I've seen say Americans are overwhelmingly in favor of reducing the deficit. Which would seem to favor McCarthy. But they are also overwhelmingly against linking deficit reduction to default. Which would seem to favor Biden. So who knows? When McCarthy just said "they want a default more than they want a deal" he's implicitly saying that he's willing to hold the US hostage to getting a deal. There's no snap poll that measures how people react to statements like that. But there are polls saying THAT is exactly what most Americans don't want. It is hard for me to imagine Biden, McCarthy, and McConnell allowing a default to occur. If only because it would make all of them, and many others, look like shit. If there is some debt reduction deal my guess is that, along with the continuing reduction in inflation pressures, it will gradually add momentum to Biden's case for a second term.

Sad, but true. I could write a book about this. But I'll do the greatest hits. My Dad was a Reaganite conservative. We really enjoyed talking about politics, for the most part. Even though I'm a lifelong liberal. One of the lines I used with one of my nieces recently, who is about as conservative as my Dad, is that while we disagreed about many things we shared the same values. Which were his values, of course, which I learned from him. My Dad and I both happened to adore Democratic Senator Bill Proxmire from Wisconsin. My Dad never met him, but loved his populist Golden Fleece Awards poking fun at stupid and wasteful government projects. I met Prox repeatedly and worked with his staff on the Senate Banking Committee. Because he was the father of the Community Reinvestment Act, our main national anti-redlining law. My Dad was the one who taught me the value of owning a home. Proxmire was the one who got a controversial law passed that has made it easier for Blacks to get mortgages to buy homes. I won't go on. You get the picture. Most of my life I spent lots of time in the US Capitol, the Oregon State Legislature, or various City Halls. And it wasn't like rocket science to get along, find common ground, and cut deals with the conservatives you disagreed with. I blame this on Trump. He is playing divide and conquer to win. So far it has only really worked once, in 2016. Hopefully Republicans learn decisively in 2024 that's it's just a bad way to play the game. But @Latbear4blk is absolutely correct that Trump is more the symptom than the cause. I was fine with CNN exposing what Trump's base is really like. You couldn't miss the ugliness. To me, it was horrifying. I've mentioned a few times that one of my brothers, who is a McCain conservative I 'd say, voted for Trump in 2016. He told me if he voted in 2020 solely based on the economy, he would have voted for Trump again. In 2020 he called me almost proud to inform me that he voted for Biden, because he decided Trump was a "megalomaniac." He lives in a rural area. He told me he told one of his conservative neighbors he voted for Biden. He said the neighbor said, "Get the hell off my lawn." I do think this may be Biden's secret weapon, including in 2024. And the flip side of the age issue. He actually believes what he says about respecting your opponents, and compromise. I think moderate people get that about him, and like it. So right now, I suspect when you put the politics mostly aside, Biden and McConnell and McCarthy agree they are all on Team USA. And we can't have a default. And we need to do something about the debt. Trump is the one saying on CNN, "Why not default?" I'm actually confident, or at least hopeful, that a majority of Americans will prefer Biden against Trump again, old and sometimes wise as he is, because of things like this.

I hit the like button about one minute into that video. Because I agree 1000 % with Anderson Cooper. I agree 0 % with Brian Tyler Cohen on this one - even though I do agree with him most of the time. But I like the video, and thanks for posting it. This is the debate we need. To me, it boils down to this. A conservative friend of mine used to repeatedly tell me this axiom of his. He thought what defines conservatives is that they debate things. And if you disagree, you disagree. What defines liberals, at least educated ones, is that if you don't agree with them it's just because they didn't explain it well enough. So they just have to explain it to you again. I never agreed with my friend. But Bryan Taylor Cohen appears to be that kind of educated liberal in this rant. He doesn't trust people to figure it out for themselves. If we ever needed proof that the American people could figure it out for themselves, the 2022 midterms provided a really good argument. In a year that should have been a broad reaction against Biden, principled and honest conservatives did just fine saying conservative things. But democracy-trashing and dishonest Trump spawn were all sent back to the hell they came from. That's democracy. God bless it. Cohen's argument that the media helped Trump win by giving him a platform in 2016 makes no sense. If that's true, why did Trump lose after the media gave him an even bigger platform for the next four years? Could it be because people actually paid attention to what Trump was saying and doing? And said we need to get rid of this abusive loser? Cohen seems to be implicitly arguing for censorship. He seems to think if we ignore 70 million or so Americans, they will go away. I think we know by now that they won't go away. And that censoring them only plays into their politics of anger and grievance. Let them call smart women nasty. In 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2022, that just helped Biden win the smart women vote. I think only media types would pat themselves on the back by thinking the media has that much power, either way. I'm with historian Lichtman. It's the economy, stupid. Were it not for COVID, Trump probably would have won in 2020. The COVID economy was what put the final nails in his coffin. But we can only hope, if Republicans nominate Trump, and even if the economy is weak next year, that a long and deep debate will bring moderates and Independents to where John Meacham is, and wants America to be. Defeating this abusive and lying loser has to be the most important thing on the agenda. That is the debate this CNN town hall opened. Is it possible that is the debate they wanted to start?

Not that I've never led a thread off topic. But let's return to our regularly scheduled crisis in American democracy, okay? Great article, @pitman. I'm always one for calling out right-wing billionaires. (Did I mention I think we should raise their taxes, too, to reduce the deficit? But, being a bipartisan guy, I'd say let's tax left-wing billionaires more, too. But there I go again, hijacking a thread about Trump and CNN to talk about taxes on fat cats.) I'm fine with saying it's the media, stupid. But I'd take that sentiment and go the other way. Compared to a generation ago, the media has gotten way more partisan. CNN led the way, along with Fox. All through US history, of course, there have been slanted and even toxic media sources. But I do think right now the media itself is helping to divide us. They build money making silos, and encourage us to stay in them by telling us what we want to hear. Which, in the case of Fox, was a bunch of lies, as we all just learned. Kudos to CNN for proving they can spout just as many lies. Even if it was indirectly through Trump, and the CNN moderator fact checked him. Reich is 1000 % correct that the media needs to hold Trump accountable for his lies, and venom about women, and democracy-bashing. Had I edited his essay, I would have suggested Reich point out that Kaitlan did that, exceptionally well. To me, that is exactly what made it so scary. The truth didn't matter. Go ahead. Call her a "nasty woman." To me, it did feel like it could have been Hitler saying, "nasty Jew!" With the crowd ready to smash the windows with glass. Not that they aren't the kindest "patriots" around, who can't get a fair trial anywhere. That said, we should all fear what comes next. I'd like America to stew over that. John Meacham, as I noted above, put it very well in historian talk. It's basically the same point @Riobard made above in psychology talk. This is a pathology. And it is deeply rooted. And hopefully a majority reacts the way Meacham said he did, personally. It is almost more important than anything else that we stop this. Now. As much as it is the media, stupid, I'll be the one to keep saying broken record that it is fundamentally the economy, stupid. Morning Joe likes to point out that in the recent bad-for-Biden ABC/WaPo poll that has triggered the Democratic inside the Beltway bed wetters, we also learned that 56 % of Americans think Donald Trump should face criminal charges in "investigations of whether he tried to illegally overturn the results of the 2020 election." What is bad for Biden, and what Morning Joe does not mention, is that in the same poll 54 % of Americans say Trump did a better job handling the economy when he was POTUS than Biden has in his term "so far." Emphasis on the words "so far." Morning Joe did say that when voters are talking about Trump, Democrats win. When voters are talking about Biden, Republicans win. I'll paraphrase to argue that if Americans care most about the economy, Trump would win today. If Americans care most about how Trump is a convicted, impeached, and indicted loser and liar and abuser, Biden would win today. We know Democrats did amazingly well last Fall, when inflation was higher than today. And when even more voters than today said the economy was on the wrong track. So that gives us a window into how Americans voters may weigh these important things. It's almost as if people voted as if eliminating some pathology, or perhaps some pathological liar, was more important than anything else. Meacham 1, Pathological Liar 0. Stay tuned. If Donald Trump is not senile, he should be. Only a senile old fool would go on CNN and insult suburban women in .................. how many ways? He should have been talking about the economy, stupid. Not how Kaitlan is a "nasty woman." Then again, maybe not: Q1 2017 to Q3 2020: GDP per capita growth from $54,866 to $56,479 = 2.5 % growth for Trump's term up to Election Day 2020 Q1 2021 to Q1 2023: GDP per capita growth from $57,882 to $60, 470 = 4.5 % growth for first half of Biden's first term Even a senile old fool would realize that whatever senile fool brought us 4.5 % growth is better than the senile fool that brought us only 2.5 % growth. At least up to the point where voters decided to fire this abusive and lying loser. Could that be why President Trump, who is no fool, failed to explain how the economy did better under him? The interesting question is why voters feel Trump did better on the economy, when GDP has grown faster under Biden. And unemployment under Biden is at a record low, and lower than it was under Trump. But I guess that would take a whole book to explain. I just can't think of one word - or one GIF - that would explain it. 😉

First, let's not be rational. You are getting into it with my dearest and most darlingest sister, who I love. So of course I have to defend her. We are two of the sweetest and lovingest and loveliest gals you've ever met. But don't fuck with us. Second, let's be rational. The picture you posted doesn't suggest Biden "is able to say only 3 sentences," as you stated. Not to be a bitch. But YOU are being the irrational one, sweetie. If he can read instructions saying ask the President of the AFL-CIO a question, he can probably say more than "Who are you?" Which I'm guessing is not the question he asked the President of the AFL-CIO. Third, If he can follow a detailed list of instructions, he's probably not senile. If Trump and/or Biden can do interviews, which I have seen both do recently, they are not bonkers. That's one of the virtues of a CNN town hall with either candidate. It demonstrates that, even though are seniors, they don't just look at a camera and drool and fart. Fourth, by your own standard, what the fuck is wrong with this convicted abuser and liar and loser? I mean, yeah. Maybe Biden shouldn't need written help to know the President of the AFL-CIO will be joining virtually. But who needs written help to understand empathy? What kind of wretched and convicted abuser and liar and loser - other than President DJT - would need to be cued to say "I hear you" when meeting with shooting survivors? It actually could be taken to mean Trump's brain is addled. Or, it could be taken to mean his brain is toxic. Which is quite understandable, seeing as how it spent an entire life in the body of a convicted abuser and liar and loser. Let's have some empathy for President DJT, okay? 😉 Seriously, guys. Can't we split the difference on this protocol stuff and just call him President Loser? Or President Toxic? Whatever we name him, Trump should NOT be President again.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled monologue. I thought the Morning Joe crowd nailed it regarding Trump's lie and ego fest on CNN. Scarborough said it's enormously stupid of Trump and his supporters to think a performance like that will help him. He argued Biden said it best in a tweet: "Do you want four more years of that?" Willie Geist cited the Morning Joe axiom that politics is about addition, not subtraction. Outside of Trump supporters, he asked, how many Independents who are not excited about Biden watched that CNN town hall and said, "Yup. That sure makes me want to vote for Trump." John Meacham, who is no radical, reminded me of Saul Alinsky's axiom from Rules For Radicals: the action is in the reaction. He said watching that Trumoy crowd and their deep connection to Trump, despite his lies and trashing of norms, made him feel like defeating this thing Trump represents has to be the biggest priority. This is coming from a guy who styles himself as Mr. Bipartisan Moderate. I agree with Meacham. I'm glad they had an audience of Trumpers. It was scary. I think a lot of moderates and Independents who are not fans of Biden will watch that and feel like, "No. No. We can't have this."

Pray tell. Who? And don't forget. There's GIFs as well as emojis. 😉

My darlingest love, it does go to show that even mature cock suckers can change. You were always the one that could take more. I guess as I have aged, with enormous grace, I have developed a certain tolerance. Although not for Trump's little thing, of course. Or his lies. We both know size matters. And the bigger the better. Even with rope, it turns out. I think Kaitlan just kept handing Trump enormous amounts of rope. And he hung himself, again and again. Not hung in the way you and I prefer, of course. Had I been in the audience, grace would mean giving out free Pepto Bismol. Half the shit he said made me want to vomit. Had the audience booed and hissed every time President DJT opened his mouth, that would have just looked like CNN socialists. Who have no grace regardless of age. They are simply extremists who are wired to be cruel to an abusive liar who can't even get a fair trail, for Pete's sake. (Don't let me get distracted about Pete and Chasten's sex life, though.) So I personally liked the optics of Trump saying all this ridiculous implausible shit while an audience of the faithful, I guess, mostly sat in awe and reverence. Sure, they could have actually had Trump abusing or even raping someone to applause. But calling Kaitlan a nasty girl went far enough, I think. The way Trump will win is to talk 24/7 about how the Biden economy sucks. And the Trump economy was better. I posted already that when asked about the economy, stupid, voters right now say Trump did a better job on the economy by 52/36 or so. I'm not sure I trust that number. The grass is always greener on the other side. Regardless, whenever Trump is explaining his lies, his abuse, his rapes, why "Hang Mike Pence" is not an actual death threat, or why cop beaters are "great people," he is losing.

It was well done. My take away is it illustrated the difference between Trump, a serial abuser and loser, and Reagan, who figured out how to win two landslides. My favorite three explanations: 1. A rioter who was killed is a "patriot." The cop who shot her is a "thug." Generally, rioters who attacks cops viciously and murderously and try to stop a peaceful transfer of power are "great people." 2. Mike Pence deserves no apology because Pence is wrong that his life was in danger. Which, technically, is not as bad as Trump saying something like Pence deserved to die, because he wouldn't be Trump's choice, anyway. We all know Pence was Trump's choice, until he declined to abuse The Constitution. 3. None of this would have mattered if Chris Miller had deployed the National Guard, as Trump ordered him to do. Except Miller says Trump lied about that. Except Trump says Miller lied. Can someone explain that? So, I think it helps frame questions that all Americans should think about. Why is it that Donald Trump can't get a fair trial, anywhere? Why is it that the only people who tell the truth these days are Donald Trump and Tucker Carlson? Somebody does need to explain these things to us. Why not believe a convicted abuser and serial loser like President DJT? I agree with My Dearest and Darlingest Sis @Suckrates that Trump set a new despicable low in his deposition. Which, sadly, he could not match on CNN. He only called Kaitlin Collins a "nasty person." In my book, that fell well short of telling her she wouldn't be a choice of his, either. If the people who actually believe Trump's lies and slurs want him to win in 2024, I'm afraid he's going to have to explain, and lose, a lot more.

I don't disagree with anything you are saying. We're just having a nice debate about what the alternative is. One way to read what you just wrote is that Biden will be a one term President, either way. If he chose not to run, he would for sure be a one term President. If he chose to run, which he has, then maybe you are saying he will most likely lose. But you did say above that maybe what that really means is that Harris ends up being POTUS. You are not disputing one of my main points. Which is that if Biden had not run, because he had accepted early on he was a one term President, the likely winner of a 2024 Democratic primary would be .................... Kamala Harris. Or Bernie Sanders. My guess is that, like lots of Gay men, you might wish Secretary Pete would be the nominee. I'd be happy to see him be our first Gay POTUS. Chasten would make a great First Gay Gentleman. But show me the poll that says Pete would win. In every poll I have seen he is #3 or #4 or #5 after Kamala and Sanders. He ran in 2020. And Biden beat him. This recent Harvard/Harris poll is a great one for Democrats like me to read and feel sick and worried about. Because on the one hand it shows people feel we are on the wrong track, and Biden is too old. Ugh! On the other hand, it shows that in a Democratic primary in 2024 Biden gets 37 % of the vote. Harris gets 10 %. Secretary Pete gets 7 %, less than Hillary Clinton at 8 %. Meaning ...................... wait for it ......................... Biden wins. Even though lots of people feel that the nation Biden is currently POTUS of is on the wrong track, and Biden is too old. Let's talk about Biden himself. Yes, it's easy to blame this on him. Because he's always wanted to be President. And now that he is he doesn't want to quit. But here's some facts, so you be the judge. In 2016 Obama himself basically thought Hillary should be the one, and Biden should step aside. That seems like the thing no one wanted to say out loud. True or not, Hillary was the one. She lost. Trump won. In 2020 I read somewhere that Barack said something like, "Joe, you don't have to do this." But Joe did it. And he won, with Barack's help. Biden could be the wise leader who in 2024 says it's best I not run. But, if you go by polls, that leads to a bitter 2024 primary that nominates someone who is viewed even less favorably than Biden. So if the point is we don't want Trump back, which I don't, nominating Harris or Sanders does not help. So is Biden really being selfish or unwise? He's a master political whore. You can argue he sees the handwriting on the wall clearer than most people. He beat Trump once, and he thinks he can beat him again. The polls are crystal clear that nominating Harris, who most likely will be nominated if Biden does not run, will not help beat Trump. Part of my point is this is what VOTERS are doing. You implicitly acknowledge that when you said maybe the "poor American people" are getting what we deserve. I'll paint a rosier scenario than you. What if Biden wins? I have never been a particular fan of Joe Biden. I did not vote for him in the 2020 Democratic primary, as I said above. But he's actually done better than I thought he might. He has kept his party united. He has gotten important legislation passed. And he's been way better on NATO and Ukraine than Trump would have been. People in Ukraine, and people anywhere who care about democracy prevailing over Putinism, should be happy Biden is POTUS rather than Trump. So if Biden wins in 2024, is that a disaster? I don't think so. Back in 2020, when I would have preferred President Warren, I thought if I end up with Joe Biden the model for a successful Biden Presidency was Konrad Adenauer. "Der Alte" lived to be 91. He served as Chancellor until he was 87, and head of his party until he 90. He was confirmed as Chancellor in the Bundestag by only one vote in 1949. But he managed to keep winning until he resigned in 1963, when one of the coalition partners said they'd only support him for his final term if he promised to resign. By the end of his time in power he was taking naps in the afternoon. No one thinks of Adenauer as a senile loser. I doubt history will view Biden as a senile loser. Der Alte transitioned Germany from a Nazi nightmare to a solidly democratic and prospering nation. Biden will not have that legacy. But if Biden/Harris win in 2024 they will have transitioned the US from Trumpism to whatever lies in store for us in 2028. I can live with that. My hope is that two losses in a row for Trumpy Republicans will have the same impact losing had for Democrats in the 1980's. Maybe they'll nominate Tim Scott in 2028. He wants to unify America, he says. Unlike Trump, he says he wants us to have each other's backs again. He a cheerleader for mainstream multi-racial American capitalism. I'd love to see a race between Republican Tim Scott and Democrat Kamala Harris in 2028, whether she is POTUS or Veep at that point. That would make me feel proud to be an American. Part of your premise is that Kamala "babbles" and did not "make a good Administrator." That's your opinion. There are lots of Republicans who think Secretary Pete is a joke, who is the worst Secretary of Transportation ever. They're entitled to their opinion, too. As far as objective measures go, Kamala won every race she ran for, usually by wide margins. Including two statewide offices, where she won 57 % and then 61 % of the vote. Pete ran for statewide office in 2010 and lost. You can say Kamala bowed out of the POTUS race in 2020. But Pete bowed out of the race for DNC Chair in 2017 before the first ballot. Call them losers. But they both did live to fight another day. Biden may have been laying the groundwork for a Kamala/Pete ticket when he chose both. If Harris and Buttigieg run together in 2028, I'd vote for them in a heartbeat. But if they run against Tim Scott, and he wins, I'd be happy for him to be our first Black Republican President. He's someone I deeply admire for his values. So Trump winning in 2024 would be a disaster to me. But Biden winning would not be. I actually think it could lead to lots of good scenarios. And, like Adenauer did, I'd argue Old Joe did what he promised and protected democratic values. I know this is a monologue. But to me, it is going to be the economy, stupid. And whether Biden or Harris or Bernie or Pete or Gavin or Gretchen top the 2024 ticket, it will be the same economy. That is what will seal Biden's fate. The bad news is that right now, according to that poll above, about half of Americans say their personal financial situation is getting worse. The good news is that is down from 64 % last Summer, when inflation peaked. The other good news, for Democrats, is that despite these facts Democrats did amazingly well in the midterms, based on what Biden did and talked about. Meanwhile, Trump election deniers did horribly. And yet Republicans want to restore a Liar In Chief who abuses and loses. So the main thing I think that could get Trump elected in 2024 is "the Biden recession." But there is nothing anyone can do at this point to stop that, if it is going to happen. Including Joe Biden.

Okay. But it seems like you just repeated my answer to your question, but phrased it differently. Again: And the alternative is? You didn't actually say there is none. But you kind of said there is none. I inserted the word VOTERS in there because that's the issue. The weird thing is VOTERS are saying two things at the same time. First, we don't want Biden and Trump. Second, we do want Biden and Trump. 😯 The explanation is that there are two different groups of voters. If there were a primary of Independents only, someone other than Biden or Trump might win. I'm not even sure of that. But in a Republican primary, Trump will win. In a Democratic primary, Biden will win. The Republicans did actually encourage candidates to come forward for the last 2 years. Why? Because Trump lost in 2020. So DeSantis came forward. Haley came forward. Pence came forward, and others. And yet, somehow, in one recent poll Trump is up 60 % in a Republican primary. How did that happen? I think it is Republican VOTERS. Blame it on them. You're of course right that no Democrats (other than marginal ones like Kennedy) have announced they are running. But that it because Biden is the incumbent. Just as important, if any of these other big stars did announce, they would lose. So Gavin Newsom could announce and run against Biden. And, if the polls are right, he'd lose badly. Gretchen Whitmer, also discussed a lot given how well she did in Michigan, could announce. And she would lose. So is the idea that Governors or Senators or Sanders, who polls say would lose, should become candidates, so they will lose? Unless I am missing something, it sounds like you want a robust primary, like 2020. Great. But then Biden will win it, like in 2020. That is what the polls say will happen. The only problem with that is that you quoted someone above saying Trump is is "characterologically unfit," to be President. Which IMHO is putting it mildly. So in practice what it sounds like you're saying is maybe we should have a Democratic primary like 1980. Which the incumbent will win. But which will weaken him. Which will help elect Trump. I'm not dismissing the issue of Biden's age. It is clearly the elephant in the room. And everybody is actually talking about it, including you. But voters in both primaries are still saying loud and clear that, regardless of who else runs, we're going to nominate Biden and Trump. So it's not clear to me what you think "party leaders" in either case should do. They seem to mostly be accepting the will of the VOTERS, whether they like it or not. About half a dozen GOP Senators were on TV yesterday after the Trump abuse verdict saying he's unelectable in 2024. But some of them pretty much said that this is what voters in my party want. What should they do? The best theoretical solution I can think of to the problem, as you state it, is a national jungle primary. Like in California. If there were enough Independents, who in theory outnumber Democrats and Republicans, maybe some third person could emerge. Like a Ross Perot. The 1992 election was, in effect, a jungle primary. But even then Perot came in third. In practice, even if we could just decide to have a jungle primary - which we can't - most Independents would likely lean toward either Trump or Biden. Which is exactly what will happen, anyway. There's a word for it, by the way. Democracy. 😉

At the time the Jan. 6th hearings were happening, a lot of conservatives said it had made absolutely no difference in the polls. The hearings were a big nothing burger. And of course Biden got lots of pushback for trying to make the election about democracy, when people were mostly pissed about inflation. Somehow, the red wave of 2022 never happened. There's no truly objective way to know why. Even if you read every poll. People sort it out in their own minds. But it sure seems like all this stuff about democracy and Jan. 6th and election denial made a difference. And as you said, both sides have their issues. It's now clear a lot of people will vote Democratic simply because of abortion. If Trump wins, it will be because of the economy, stupid. A recession is what I think could take Biden out. But even in a situation like that, for a lot of people it will be lesser of evils. As it was last year, with inflation. But the 2022 midterm results suggest that for a lot of people, the election denial and Jan. 6th and the whole Trump thing was just a bridge too far. Even though I am a liberal, what I thought was particularly good is that all the "normie" conservatives (DeSantis, Kemp, Sununu, DeWine) did just fine. But all the Trump election deniers went down in flames. It could not have been more clear. And yet, so far it seems the Trumpy Republican base basically doesn't give a shit. One of my brothers, who I would describe as a right of center Independent, voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. The one candidate in his life who he really wanted to vote for for POTUS was John McCain in 2008. He and my Dad were both in the Navy. So his whole thing in 2020 was that Trump was a "megalomaniac." But I asked him if he had only voted on the economy in 2020, who would he have voted for. He answered "Trump," in a heartbeat. I asked him why. He said, "My retirement account went up a lot." So he is an example of what I'm hoping is a majority of Americans who are not Biden fans, but just see Trump as a threat to values they actually do treasure. The worse the economy is in exactly November 2024, the harder it is for Biden to ask people to overlook things like inflation. I hope Georgia is a big deal. And I hope it pops in 2024, not now. Right when people like my brother are focused on whether they can hold their nose and vote for Trump. The unavoidable problem with Jack Smith is it is easy to say that he's tied to DOJ. And so that's Biden. And so it's just another political witch hunt. Granted, Fani Willis is a Black Democrat like Alvin Bragg. So she'll be attacked for that. But most of the content of the case in Georgia is about Trump going after Republicans to lie and cheat and steal. Raffensperger and his whole family were getting death threats. There's not a lot of ambiguity in the phrase "find 11,780 votes." And whatever anyone thinks about hush money to hookers, or even sexual abuse and defamation, stealing an election is a big deal.

And the alternative is? That is both a question, and the answer to your question, @Lucky. It is a serious question. Since I am over my bandwidth quota, I waited a day to see if someone else would comment. But I'm genuinely curious whether other posters have ideas about how we could have, or still could, get to some ticket other than Biden/Harris 2024. I have my own answer to THAT question. It involves going back to the choices made in 2020. But at this point, in May 2023, I don't see any realistic alternative. Other than for Biden to have said he's not running. But he is. But let's play out what the alternative is. Before Biden announced, there was a year of polls showing that, if everybody ran, it would be a repeat of 2020. Biden would win a plurality of the vote. In every poll that shows him running against Veep Kamala or Secretary Pete or Bernie or Warren or even Michelle Obama, Biden wins. What happens if Biden drops out? Most polls say Harris wins. Which is what many (White) Democratic voters don't want. Then again, other polls says if Biden didn't run the next most popular choice is Bernie. Which is what many (moderate) Democratic voters don't want. I'll always think Super Tuesday 2020 was one of the strangest days in US politics. You just don't win primaries in states where you have no money, no staff, no organization, and the Senator from that state (Klo or Warren) is on the ballot. Yet Biden won Massachusetts and Minnesota. Jim Carville, who thought nominating Bernie would elect Trump, had yet another pithy way of saying it. He said the Democratic Party needed an intervention. And on Super Tuesday 2020, Democratic voters provided the intervention. But the key point is that it was voters, in a Democratic primary. There was a spontaneous tidal wave that buried Bernie and nominated Biden. I bold-faced your point about party leaders. It at least implies the idea of a smoke-filled room. Or a contested convention where Barack and Michelle or Bill and Hillary or somebody decides what makes sense. But, again, Carville was right about one thing. If the Democratic Party needs another intervention, that's what primaries are for. In a race against Robert Kennedy, Jr., Biden wins the primary 3 to 1. The people have spoken. I'll add this, which is speculation. If there is any party leader that was the architect of 2020, it was Jim Clyburn. He brought Biden back from the dead. He pushed Biden to pick Harris as his Veep. Clyburn never has, and never would, said this. But my reading of the tea leaves is that he felt that after 2016 running a woman or a Black would be a bridge too far for many voters. I think he saw Biden/Harris as the best bet to take out Trump. It worked. So if Clyburn is the party leader you want, Clyburn is very clear that he wants to finish the job with Joe and Kamala. So, again, what's the alternative, really? I think the fact that there is no alternative answers your question. It's not necessarily relevant, but Republicans are doing the same thing. Trump was just convicted of crimes. And at least so far, Ronny D seems to be as pure as Snow White. (Don't tell Ron. He doesn't like Disney.) And yet Republicans are going with the old loser. The one thing you can say about Biden is that he NEVER ran for POTUS, or Veep, as the party's nominee, and then lost. I think that's part of the equation, too. It's still not clear to me why Biden was the only guy who could beat Trump in 2020. But that's a big part of why he was nominated. And now people are talking like he's the only guy Trump can beat. It's a perfectly fine fear to have. But what's the alternative? I was for Warren in 2020. I voted for Bernie, in California, knowing by that point that Warren was toast and Biden would win the nomintaion. My vote was a memo to Joe saying, "Go left, old man. Go left." He did. I think he's a master political whore who has done a good job of moderating the differences in the party. Did I mention he sucked Joe Manchin's cock at least well enough to get old Joe (M, not B) to vote for Really Important Stuff that Biden and Democrats could run on in 2022? Which helped them avoid a bloodbath? I won't post the polls. But a big chunk of older Democrats view Biden favorably. There are almost NO young Democrats - it is literally a single percentage - that strongly approve of Joe Biden. They think he's too old. Many if not most of them would rather have Bernie or Kamala. So that's a problem. Will they even vote? But they did vote in 2022. And the shit Biden did get done, like climate change, or tried to do, like voting rights and student debt relief, helped. I worry about younger Democrats a lot more than older Democrats. They have to turn out in 2024 and vote for Biden if we don't want to Make America Great Again, Yet Again. Will they? But the polls clearly say that for most of them the alternative is Kamala or Bernie. Is that what you want?