stevenkesslar

Glad you liked the film. I read several interviews with the director, Andrew Haigh. He wanted to leave what really happened open to interpretation, so that people talked about the movie after the movie. He succeeded! He also said one of the sub-plots he wrote into the movie is that Adam, thanks to Harry, was finally able to get out of his lonely world and find love - with Harry. You can imagine that however you want to. But ending the movie with "The Power Of Love" wasn't subtle. Of the maybe half dozen articles/interviews I read, this interview with Haigh, and this article in Empire which quotes Haigh on key points, were the most helpful in elaborating what Haigh's intentions and subtexts were. There's spoilers in both articles for anyone who hasn't seen the film. I'll quote what Haigh said in the Empire article about whether most of the movie existed inside Adam's head: So you can choose to view it however you want. The feeling that resonated for me is that whether you think some of the people we meet in the film are really ghosts, or this is all just happening in Adam's head, Haigh said he wanted to make a "ghost story". So Adam is haunted, one way or the other. In a different interview he said he could have had a much happier and simplistic ending. But he preferred a more difficult ending, because that is how life actually is most of the time. That resonated for me, too. Certainly for someone like Adam. That New York Times article I hyperlinked above talked about how this film, like many other recent LGBTQ films, provide a form of "emotional reparations" for Gay men who grew up in a world that was a lot less tolerant to Gay men than the one we live in today. That works for me. Andrew was a deeply wounded guy. The point Haigh clearly wanted to make is that, in the end, there was healing and moving on for Adam. He was able to find love. But in a difficult way. For me, the final plot twist with Harry wasn't the most interesting part of the movie. I would have been fine with the simpler happy ending Haigh did not choose. What resonated the deepest for me were the scenes with Adams parents. Because that is a form of haunting I feel, and I think many if not most Gay men feel. I think what you said is correct: you can share nothing with your parents, and then it's too late. But I think Haigh made it more complicated than that. Even if you do get to share, in the ghostly way Adam got to, it's still not ever going to be quite right. Here's what Haigh said, which I'll quote extensively. Because I think he really nailed it. I was sobbing during that scene. Because it brought up all the feelings with my own Mom and Dad, when I came out to them as an adult. My Mom was textbook correct, in saying, "We love you any way you are." Then she asked me if there was anything else I needed to tell them. Which I'm pretty sure meant, "Are you telling us this because you are dying of AIDS?" All I said is, "I'm fine. I'm healthy." My Dad took having a Gay son very hard. He read and thought and came around. Sort of. So my point is that is was definitely okay, and maybe even good. But it was never great. And, like Haigh, it was easy for me to be in an empathetic space, even though I was still the kid that was strange and seeking acceptance. I don't think my parents, lifelong Catholics, could every completely embrace the idea of having a Gay son. But that was okay. Like Haigh said, it's complicated and messy. One of the best sets of experiences I had with my Dad was the last five years or so of his life, when my Mom was in a nursing home with dementia and he deeply missed his lifelong partner in crime. I spent a lot of time with him, just bullshitting. And the nice thing is at that point it had nothing to do with being Gay, or sexuality. It was just about love and caring between a father and son. Even if there were elements of it that were better left unsaid. Haigh said in one of those interviews that his own Dad, who died of dementia, at one point forgot that his son was Gay. Haigh said that didn't really matter to him at that point, either. I can relate. It was a really beautiful, wise, and deep movie that captured a lot of my experience about growing up Gay.

Two long articles that go in different directions. Both of which - or all of which - are probably partially true. You don't have to read either, @EmmetK. We all know facts and analysis are not your thing. The GOP Is Burning Bridges With Young Voters for Generations—Thanks to Trump That rings true. The main reason it rings true is simply an objective fact. Young voters proved by voting that they are repulsed by Trump, MAGA, and the ideas they represent. Put abortion and climate change at the top of the list. They not only proved that in November 2020. They have proved it in basically every election at every level of government since. The young Wisconsin voters who changed the state's Supreme Court because of abortion don't seem likely to suddenly want Trump in office . So he can try some kind of national abortion ban by executive decree. So it seems unlikely that young voters who carried Biden to victory in 2020 and are now pissed at him, in particular for being "Genocide Joe" to Bibi Netanyahu's mad bomber, are going to vote for Trump. But this goes to the heart of all your incorrect thinking about polls, @EmmetK. There are two different but related things happening. In Biden/Trump matchups, Trump is now winning. Why? In large part because young voters are either not supporting Biden, or saying they will support Trump. Then when you add more names - RFK, West, Stein - it's the same thing. The polls that add all the names make what is really happening the clearest. When they are given five choices, not two, young voters in particular don't support Trump any more than exit polls say they supported him in 2020. Which is to say, young people are wildly opposed to Trump, as the author above says. At the same time, it's becoming clearer and clearer that young voters don't like Joe Biden and what his administration is doing. The destruction of Gaza and the killing of 30,000 Palestinians has clearly been a tipping point. Polls are now screaming it, consistently. So they say they will vote for RFK, or West, or Stein. When you subtract Biden's vote, it makes Trump's lead bigger But, either way, there is no question that Trump is now slightly leading in national polls for the first time. And there is no question that it is specifically because of young voters who specifically wanted to get rid of Trump in 2020. But are now either sour with Biden, or simply done with Biden. The big thing we don't know is exactly how deep the animosity toward Biden and his policies goes among young voters. It seems very likely that is a work in progress. And Democrats should be deeply worried. This second article is long and all over the map. But it is probably mostly correct for that reason. Whatever is happening in the polls right now, it is complicated. And probably no one knows or can predict what it actually means for November. What Democrats’ panic over young voters misses It is shocking that since October there's been a series of polls saying Trump is now tied or even slightly ahead of Biden with the young voters who nailed Trump's coffin shut by huge margins in 2020. As the article notes, such huge swings among particular voting cohorts rarely happen. And need to be viewed with skepticism. It is easy for me to get my mind around why young voters are repulsed by Biden's support for what they see as genocide in Gaza. It's harder for me to believe that the same voters would elect Trump. Who will give Bibi a blank check to kill as many Palestinians as he wants. The fact that many of the young voters who elected Biden have shifted from being disappointed in him to being repulsed by him doesn't make Trump any less repulsive to them, as the Gen Z author above argues. I think there are three things that are relatively certain at this point. First, the levels of support currently shown for RFK, Stein, and West are not going to hold. That was my point above. That Vox article basically says that every polling expert who knows anything about polling knows that third party support in the early stages of election cycles NEVER translates to as much support when people actually vote. So that will mostly help Biden. Many, but not all, voters who moved away from him to some other name will move back. In part because they will decide they are even more repulsed by Trump. It still could be enough to nail Biden's coffin shut, though. Just like Stein nailed Hillary's coffin shut in 2016. Thanks, Jill! Asshole! Second, this is incredibly bad news for Biden, no matter what you make of both articles. As a Democrat, I can rationalize this away easily enough. Two of my nephews expressed this view of Biden recently. They understand why Democrats are better off running with an incumbent. But they just DO NOT want this incumbent! They almost shouted it. But, as an example of low information voting, they had no idea who John Kasich is. Or why compromise-oriented Democrats like me like him. And these two are very smart college graduates. So I can only imagine what young voters who get their information off Tik Tok know. Or, more importantly, don't know. So it is very easy for me to believe some pollster calls some Gen Z voter (if they ever answer their phone) who is pissed at "Genocide Joe". And they say they will vote for RFK or Stein or West - or even Trump. But once Biden reminds them that Trump's SCOTUS killed his student loan cancellation plan, and that Trump would be better to Bibi and worse to Palestinians, and that Trump mostly wants tax breaks to billionaires and abortion bans, that may change. Who the fuck knows, really? Nobody knows, really. But it is a monumental roll of the dice on the part of Biden and Democrats to assume young voters don't really mean it. Because they do really mean it. They did nail Trump's coffin shut in 2020. In 2024 they could take the nails out of the coffin and make him President again. They don't even have to vote for Trump, which I think is unlikely. They just have to vote third party. Or, most likely, not vote at all. Third, this is exactly why I think Allan Lichtman will once again be right in the end. One of his main messages is that the polls are fickle. And that what matters is the fundamentals. This is a textbook example of it. We know for a fact that in every election since 1984 polls at one point or another showed either the Democrat or Republican winning. Including in 2016, when a few polls on a good day did show Trump with a tiny lead. And yet somehow Lichtman got it right every time - with a small caveat about Gore in 2000, who did win the popular vote and lost by a handful of votes in one state that are still kind of an historical black hole. If I go with Lichtman's correct bets so far, and I had to bet $100,000 today, I'd bet it on Biden. Mostly because, as of February 2024, it seems like the fundamentals - as Lichtman outlines them - are on Biden's side. Another way of saying it is that polls based on low information young voters who get their news off Tik Tok probably are very fickle. They could easily change again six months from now. Both articles are right that the election hasn't really started. When we get to the part where we talk about how Trump killed Roe v. Wade, and how he wants abortion bans and a firm policy of climate change denial, that may change how many young people feel. But both articles seem spot on about young voters who are not at all enamored of EITHER political party. As a Democrat, I mostly view this as a good wake up call. And Gaza is a perfect example. It's understandable that Biden making vague statements about caution while 30,000 Palestinians, mostly women and kids, are slaughtered is just not going to cut it as policy. Either Democrats decide they're willing to take one for Bibi. Or they have to pay attention to why young voters have a deepening feeling of repulsion from Biden. Even if it is mostly based on what they see on Tik Tok. The repulsion over Gaza is a fact. But it's also a symbol for all the other ways Democrats (or Republicans, but not Trump) are going to have to work harder to win and keep the votes of Millennials and Gen Z. By coming up with policies and accomplishments that they actually like, and are not repulsed by.

Bot related. But speaking of old US ex-Presidents, this guy doesn't sound crazy. He sounds prescient.

Thank you. That's my point. It's easy for me to see why Biden has a problem with younger voters who view Trump as anathema. I have a lot of nieces and nephews. The oldest ones are Gen X. And while they tend to be more conservative, like the generation that grew up under Reagan (and the dismantling of the USSR), they don't like MAGA and old people bickering. The Millennial and Gen Z cohort can't wait for generational change. And I just keep repeating I can't wait, either. One could argue Trump and Biden look like the last leaders of the Soviet Union. That's fair. But what's interesting is those leaders did actually symbolize a corrupt Communist economy that was aging and about to collapse. That's hardly the United States today. I just wish I had bought even more semiconductor stocks. I'm up almost 100 % since last Fall on FNGU. Biden may be having a hard time getting his ideas across. The US stock market, and American-led technological innovations, are speaking with a roar. One of my nephews said it best recently. This food fight in the US will end when Baby Boomers age out. Trump is a Boomer, as was Bush 43 and Clinton. Biden is too old to be a Boomer. Happily, the resilience of the US economy, and the global capitalist economy, does not really depend on Biden or Trump. Russia will only be a tiny part of it. Enjoy your time out. Eat some vegetables. Tragic, isn't it? Which is why as a Gay man and American I am grateful that we have Vladimir Putin's Russia to offer the world light and hope. Plus decency, kindness, and fairness.

It's Taiwan, actually. That's the point. Master Xi is tolerating his sadistic and genocidal lapdog because it tests whether Master Xi can get away with a bloodbath in Taiwan. So far, survey says, "no". And somehow Dementia Joe managed to get a huge bill on US semiconductor factories passed. Let's check back on that in a decade. This is one reason why millions of Russians will be turned into fertilizer in Vlad's Glorious Wartime Fertilizer economy. Republicans have a hard on for confronting or containing China. So even if the MAGA folks don't give a shit about Ukraine and democracy, the bipartisan consensus on NATO and alliances will hold. Because Republicans, despite Trump, won't want to to encourage Master Xi to go after Taiwan like Murderous Vlad is going after Ukraine. Democrats, and the rest of the planet, seem to understand that a war between China and the US would be a global disaster that must be avoided. Whereas a regional war that primarily turns Russians into fertilizer is tolerable. We know this because Vlad's Glorious Wartime Fertilizer Economy is seemingly working well for Russia. Have fun! That's not a prediction, or a hope. It's a tragedy. Why would a country want a genocidal sadist as a leader who intentionally turns his people into fertilizer? But, hey, you guys have a free and fair election coming up. As it happens, just read a new article on the topic in one of our best sources of lies and US genocide propaganda, Politico The West tried to crush Russia’s economy. Why hasn’t it worked? Great article that nicely summarizes most of the main reasons why. I had no idea what to expect when all the sanctions hit. I don't think anyone did, really. Partly because it's never been done before. But just think about that. One thing about the Cold War is it was all about the US and USSR not fucking with each other. So now we're in a situation where most of the leading economies in the world have agreed, "Let's just let Murderous Vlad go to economic time out for the rest of our lifetimes." If you think that says something good about Russia, or is good news for Russia, go ahead and believe it. Master Xi will still buy your oil. India will buy your weapons, even as they form strategic alliances with the US. Everyone likes cheap shit being sold by a desperate sadist. Personally, I think this is pretty good news for the world. Russia is in economic time out for a very long time. If Russia wants Vlad's Glorious Wartime Fertilizer Economy, it's your choice. Since Russia is one of the few democracies in the world, of course. 😉 Like I said, there is money to be made turning Russians into fertilizer. And Vlad and his kleptocrats will make it. You are right that the US imprisons more people than Russia. But at least we don't turn them into fertilizer. 😲 But if it works for you, your choice. The long term consequences are the same. Historians will debate what ended the USSR forever. But US technology was one of the big reasons. In two ways. Directly, we won an arms race that was in part based on superior technologies. Vlad now thinks he can win that game. Ha ha. Second, the overwhelming force of US and Western technology was just financially too much for the USSR. The Soviet Union actually did a good job at industrialization and factories. GDP growth in the 50's and 60's was great for you. But the digital economy didn't work so well for the USSR. And it isn't working so well for Russia, it seems. Funny, since Russia is all about democracy and open information and innovation. But, hey, you will always have fertilizer and oil and weapons from North Korea and Iran. If you think that's how you win in the end, good for you. Might want to read some history, though. By the way, that article above confirms everything you are saying about how all US journalism is propaganda designed to promote US genocide, US hegemony, and Mostly Super Bad American Shit all over the planet. Wheras Vlad's Russia and "news" is docile, decent, and kind. Obviously the headline screams that US propaganda will do anything it takes to make it seem like US and Western policies against Russia are working perfectly. As it happens, I went to college with the co-founder of Politico and we worked on the student newspaper together. So I can confirm that he is deeply committed to US propaganda, and the overarching goal of US genocide. We used to sit around and drink beer as college students and speculate about how to create crappy stories that deceive people and promote mass murder. Which is obviously what Politico does. It's just that Americans and the rest of the world are too stupid to figure it out. That said, the plan worked. When I went to college the Cold War was still raging. So you had the USSR and Pravda, promoter of kindness and decency. And the US and the New York Times, promoter of genocide. Obviously, genocide won. The USSR is history and the US/NATO doctrine of genocide and lies won. Democracy is of course just a lie that billions of people have been fooled into. Which is why Vlad is the best. In addition to figuring out how to turn Russians into fertilizer, he's one of the few leaders left that will tell you the truth! Other than Trump, of course.

That picture is a great example of my point about Russia being outside the cultural mainstream for the rest of our lifetimes. First, @Moses, thanks for being honest about Russia's "strong" homophobia. And your point about Poland makes sense. Russia is certainly not the only place in the world with a conservative and homophobic government. But who the fuck wants to live in Zakrzówek? It's not exactly Ibiza or Puerto Vallarta. I don't think we're missing much, really. Apparently, two groups that do not want to, or can't, live in Zakrzówek are Poles, and Jews. I say Poles because the population of Zakrzówek declined from 7,212 in 2002 to 6,243 in 2021. At least you can't blame that on The Gays! IMHO I think we should let them have their homophobic sign. At least it adds a hint of color to a boring place no one wants to live in anymore. Jews may have wanted to live there at one point. But they didn't really have a choice, either. So it's an extreme example of everything that is backward and indecent and cruel. And has been for a long time, it seems. Moscow is an explosion of Gay culture compared to Zakrzówek, I suspect. But the LGBTQ movement there is still fucked. Like Jews in Poland in 1942, unfortunately you are on the wrong side of history. It is a tragedy . Especially because, these days, most of the rest of the world is on the right side of history.

A statement like that reflects your ignorance, or perhaps I should say inexperience, of the fabric of democracy and social change And it also is a great example of the price people will pay in Russia for Murderous Vlad's genocide. At least the price LGBTQ people will pay. On an issue like LGBTQ rights, it's just a given that almost every government everywhere will be behind the curve - 100 % of the time. This was certainly true in the US. We're an easy minority to target and discriminate against. We know this because it has actually happened for almost all of human history. It was a disappointment, but not a surprise, that when Obama was running in 2008 he was against same sex marriage. Same sex marriage lost a key vote in California the same night Obama won in 2008. Biden actually was more ahead of the curve than most politicians. He has survived in politics as long as he has by being cautious. And never getting too far ahead of the curve. But on same sex marriage, I think the fact that he came out relatively early showed what has always been in his heart. Regardless, it took decades of fighting politicians like Biden to even begin to get into the edges of the political mainstream on same sex marriage. Vlad is of course doing the opposite. Appeasing the conservative values of his base. And gaining support by doing it. I can hardly blame him for that, compared to the genocide in Ukraine for example. Again, we're such an easy target. And always have been. How could a genocidal sadist resist? At least he's not rounding The Gays up and throwing them in prison. Yet. Russia is, by Vlad's choice, now out of the Western economic, political, and cultural mainstream for decades to come. And it's fine if a lot of Russians, even the majority, say, "Good riddance." Vlad will do a great job with his kleptocrats of building an economy that relies on weapons, fossil fuels, and turning millions of Russians into fertilizer. There's money to be made in doing so, as you noted. Good for you. I made 15 % in one day on Thursday on SOXL and FNGU, which are exchange traded funds of all the big semiconductor and digital economy names. We now have an economic divide where the US leads the development of many of the most important technologies of our time. And Vlad increasingly excels at turning Russians into fertilizer. Woo hoo! Gays will pay a price because this not only limits Russian exposure to high end technology and free trade. It also limits and in fact pretty much ends the grassroots and personal cultural exchanges that have done a huge amount for the LGBTQ movement all over the world. Gay tourists are probably #1 on the list of Gay ambassadors. Except tourists don't want to visit Genocide World anymore. Let alone Gay tourists. One of my organizing partners in crime took what worked in the US on same sex marriage and brought it to Ireland and made it work. On a national referendum. In one of the most Catholic countries in the world. So that's the kind of thing that probably would NOT have happened in Russia a decade ago, anyway. But it sure as shit won't happen now. Thank your sadist for that. Not Grandpa Joe. Of course, most Russians don't view this as paying a price, at all. They view it as Vlad's noble defense of traditional Russian values. You can have the 20th century and genocide, if you prefer. Or the 19th century and genocide, even. America, and the global LGBTQ movement, can and will build the 21st century without you. Maybe you can catch up in the 22nd century. But that's for another lifetime. For now, you're just out of the mainstream for decades to come. But enjoy your beer.

We're back to square one. What did facts do to you? Why does it seem to hurt so deep and so bad? Fact: Ross Perot polled in June 1992 at 39 % Fact: Ross Perot got 19 % of the vote in November 1992. Fact: Ross Perot polled 19 % in May 1996 Fact: Ross Perot got 8 % of the vote in November 1996. You can do the same with any election/ Every independent polled way better than the vote share they actually got. That's even more likely to happen this year given how people feel about Trump. The good news for Biden is a lot of those West and Stein voters, in particular, are going to end up voting for Biden. The bad news for Biden is even if that's true, he looks like he is in serious danger of losing Michigan, anyway. Whether people pissed at him about "genocide" vote for RFK, or West, or Stein, or just don't vote is a question of slight variations in the size of the nails in the coffin. Biden needs a committed base that will get out to vote. He had that in 2020. He has a serious base problem in 2024. And it is showing in Michigan, in particular. The other good news for Biden is it's early in 2024. So he has time to do something about it. Or maybe the people who obviously turned against Biden will change their mind. But that seems like a very hollow hope. Particularly when the most likely scenario between now and November is that Bibi will just keep dropping bombs and the death toll will keep rising, while nothing else happens. As predicted, it's turning into a long term quagmire for Israel. And it looks more and more like a potential death sentence for Biden.

Actually, Trump has Netanyahu. It's hard not to read the polls and think the issue is not Dementia Joe. If there is a Joe Biden that is a disaster for Democrats, it is "Genocide Joe". 2024 ELECTIONS Michigan may soon show just how badly Biden’s cease-fire stance is hurting him The polls, picture, and quote all speak for themselves. Biden has a huge Michigan problem. And he can thank Bibi Netankillyu for it, more than Trump. Something happened in October. As you can see from the RCP poll above, for most of 2023 the race was a toss up. There was endless talk about inflation, and immigration, and Biden's age all through 2023. And the polls were stable, with either Biden or Trump with a slight statistical lead of maybe one percent. Then it changed after October. Trump built a lead of close to three percent at one point in the RCP average. All this may be coincidence. But Oct. 18th, when Biden actually was in Israel, right after the attack, was the last time he was tied with Trump (43.9 % each) in the RCP national average. Then as the 2,000 pound bombs started to drop and the headlines became about thousands and then tens of thousands of dead innocent Palestinians, Biden's poll numbers just kept getting worse. Again, maybe it is a coincidence. But that period from mid-October to late November when Trump opened up a lead over Biden nationally is when the news was all about the endless slaughter of innocent Palestinian women and children. The more Palestinian children Bibi Netanyahu kills, the better Trump does in US polls. Especially in Michigan. I'm not sure how Biden stops Bibi, or Israelis, from the indiscriminate slaughter of Palestinian children. That is now a huge problem for him. Biden's problem is particularly clear in Michigan. And as that story above suggests, a lot of it has to do with young voters who are hardly MAGA supporters. And Palestinian voters, or their friends and allies, who feel this is genocide. Many Palestinian Americans have family members being killed in Gaza. The RCP Michigan polls are very clear. RCP cites nine Michigan polls taken before the October 7th Hamas attack. Biden led in five, Trump led in one, and three were tied. The three polls taken in August, September, and early October 2023 all showed Biden leading slightly in Michigan. There are eleven polls taken in Michigan since Oct. 7th, most of which are counted in the current RCP average. Trump leads in nine of them, Biden in only one, and one is a tie. The current RCP Michigan average is Trump +4.6 %. There's only one pollster on that list where you can do a clear comparison of polls by the same pollster before and after Oct. 7th. In an August 2023 poll EPIC-MRA showed Biden with a one point lead in Michigan. By late November 2023 Trump led by five points, according to the same pollster. In a Feb. 2024 poll just out by EPIC-MRA Trump leads by four points in Michigan. This is no doubt why Democrats in Michigan are freaking out. Again, the shifting polls themselves seem to be clear about why this is happening. If this does not change, Trump will win. Allan Lichtman will be wrong for the first time since 1984. Although, as I said in that thread, he has NOT made a formal prediction yet. And he made clear what happens with these wars is part of the reason why. It is a fact that Biden was leading in the Michigan polls before Bibi starting dropping the bombs. Once Bibi lashed out, Biden started to lose Michigan. If he loses Michigan, he loses the Presidency. Maybe Trump should make Bibi his Veep. Since Bibi as much as anyone will get him elected. And Bibi is wildly unpopular in Israel. Biden currently has a 0.6 % lead in Pennsylvania, according to RCP. If you look at those polls, they also confirm something happened in October. There were three polls in Pennsylvania in the 60 days before October 7th. Biden led in two of them, with the average of the three being Biden +0.7 %. There were three polls taken in late October and early November in Pennsylvania. Trump led in all three, with the average being Trump +3.7. In Pennsylvania the race has now flipped back to Biden, ever so slightly. Trump currently has a 0.6 % lead in Wisconsin. There are not enough polls to reach any conclusion on trends. But Biden's last poll lead in Wisconsin was in late October 2023. Biden's poll numbers in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada are all worse than Michigan. So if Biden loses those three but keeps Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, he has 255 electoral votes. Michigan has 15. So it's the tipping point to a Biden victory. One final extremely lopsided polling result. Among Democrats, 32 % say Biden is being "too supportive" of Israel. Only 1 % of Democrats say Biden is "not being supportive enough" of Israel. A plurality of Democrats, 43 %, say what Biden is doing is "about right", and the rest are unsure. The problem for Biden is that 2024 is clearly going to be a base election. People in the middle don't want either candidate. So if a third of Biden's base is open to the idea that he is Genocide Joe, he has a very serious problem with his base. My hope, like most Democrats, is that as inflation went down and the economy grew Biden's poll numbers would grow, too. So far, nothing about the economy has changed that calculus. But if the calculus has changed to include the body count of dead Palestinian women and children, that can seemingly only get worse. There is no plan for Gaza, and no plan for the West Bank. Other than vague talk about a two state solution, which the leader of Israel opposes, as the bombs keep dropping. The way this may be hurting Biden the most is by reinforcing the sense that he is old and not in control of events. If Trump wins, that problem solves itself. Trump would seemingly do fine among the MAGA base if he held up a sign saying, "Duh! Drop more bombs. Kill more Palestinians, stupid!" It could be like 2016 all over again in Michigan. Back then it was the factory jobs, stupid. Now it seems like it's the genocide, stupid.

Good news, Emmet. I am sure Vlad really welcomes this win for Biden, decency, and truth. Granted, Hunter is a fucked up mess. But what with Vlad being a stalwart for decency and kindness and truth, I am sure he is delighted that all the Trump lies and rot and cruelty are being righted. God bless Vlad. Such a just and decent fella!

Yes, the RCP betting odds are a very reliable source. Let's go over some odds. In 2022 there was a 50 % chance that Murderous Vlad, when he was faced with a unified NATO and a POTUS committed to helping democracies like Ukraine, would decide to go ahead and launch a murderous genocide, anyway. And he did. Whereas you are right that Putin did not invade Ukraine while Trump was President. That's because experts say there is only a 20 % chance Putin will be sadistic asshole when he has a compliant US President who trashes NATO and gives Vlad what he wants. There are worse odds, though. In 2016 Trump only had a 13 chance of being elected, according to the RCP betting odds. Hillary had an almost 9 in 10 chance of winning. So I wouldn't be so certain about Trump's 44 % chance of winning now. Shit, that's less than 50/50. Here's a slightly bitter pill for you, @EmmetK. Trump is a dumb ass. That said, he's a genius compared to you. He knew Lichtman knows how to place good bets, and he congratulated him. You're not smart enough to realize that, @EmmetK. You bet on losing betting pools. Good news is that no one can be more of a dumb ass than Ron DeSantis. He went from a 35 % chance of winning a year ago to a 0 % chance today. How do you do that?

They preferred that. Who wouldn't rather stay in their barracks than be turned into fertilizer. Fact: as long as Trump was trashing NATO and dividing the US, which was giving Vlad everything he wanted, of course Vlad was happy. If Trump is elected he'll give Ukraine away, to the extent he can, empower Putin, and weaken the US. Trump is a weak Putin cock sucker. He'd be a convicted rapist other than it was proved in court that he couldn't get it up enough to actually rape. The guy has issues. He is weak. Putin helped Trump in 2016, whether Trump wanted his help or not. See the Mueller report and all the Russians charged. Putin didn't like Hillary, either. Turns out he doesn't like people who challenge him. When he can, he murders them. including mass murder. Putin does like cock suckers who try to please him. Trump lost in 2020. Trump is weak. Trump is a loser. Only weak losers end up being cock suckers for sadistic rulers like Putin who commit genocide.

Yup. I sure believe what Vlad tells friendly journalists he calls in to tell them things he wants them to hear. Proving once again you'll believe anything Trump says and support anything he does. That's what a cult is all about. Putin didn't have to invade any country or turn hundreds of thousands of Russians into fertilizer when Trump was around. Trump just gave him what he wanted. You view Trump's weakness as strength and Biden's willingness to fight for our values as weakness. That's what the MAGA cult is all about, too. Weakness. Lies. Rot. One thing the world learned from Tucker's cock sucking session interview with Vlad is that our sadistic and corrupt billionaire is as bad at lying and spin as he is good at genocide. The fact that he has to announce he is for Biden simply underscores how he's doing everything he can to elect Trump. And you will help him. But if you believe Putin wants Biden for four more years than you also have to believe that Vlad is a friend of every journalist and opposition leader in Russia. And that planes just accidentally explode in mid-flight.

YES! YES! YES! Trump scared the shit out of people. No one ever fucked with him. Under Trump China never would have invaded the US with the China virus to kill over 1 million Americans. Wouldn't have dared. Under Trump men were more virile. Under Trump penises were all at least an inch longer. Under Trump the nation was kinder and gentler.

I get the point. And you are for sure half right. Trump is always the elephant in the court room. But personally I always had Putin pegged as a twink. Not a bear.

I'm tired of the misery!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Can't we actually WIN just for once???????????????????????? Inflation down to 3 % Stock market at all time highs Net worth of average middle class American up 30 % since 2019 Lowest unemployment in half a century STOP THE MISERY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I CAN'T TAKE IT ANYMORE! Joe Dementia Biden is toast. He fucked us over so bad. Joe Dementia Biden is the new Jimmy Loser Carter. In 1980 Carter got his ass kicked because the misery index peaked at 21.9 in Summer 1980!!! Biden is going to get his ass kicked even worse! The misery index is 6.8. That's one point lower than when Trump left office! It's horrible! STOP THE MISERY! IMPEACH LOSER DEMENTIA JOE!

Wonder who he could be talking about?

You're getting sloppy in your genocide lies. You forgot he is a Nazi. That's how Vlad rationalizes the genocide. Get with it! Vlad is counting on solid lies from his people.

No. I described how Vlad just turned 50,000 Russians into fertilizer to gain maybe ten kilometers. You should be disgusted and appalled at how your mass murdering butcher kills Russians. But of course you are not. Do genocide, lie, kill. Do genocide, lie, kill. Do genocide, lie, kill. What has Plan Vlad meant for Russians lately? From the Institute For The Study Of War: Do genocide, lie, kill. Do genocide, lie, kill. Do genocide, lie, kill. Lately Plan Vlad killed maybe 50,000 Russians to gain maybe ten kilometers of territory in Ukraine. Are we saying Ukrainians welcomed those Russians? That's a weird way to show hospitality. Do genocide, lie, kill. Do genocide, lie, kill. Do genocide, lie, kill. As Zelenskyy himself said and I quoted above, the essence of Plan Vlad is a murderous lack of concern for human life - Ukrainian, or Russian. He can't actually win a war. What he can do is literally throw hundreds of thousands and eventually maybe millions of Russians at Ukrainian soldiers to be turned into fertilizer. Vlad's hope has to be that the will of Ukraine eventually breaks. But if that were going to happen, it would have happened the day Vlad invaded. Ukraine has no choice but to defend itself. Ukraine has a big recruitment problem. But the silver lining in that cloud is they have to stop listening to shitty advice from US and NATO military planners about unrealistic offensive operations. Ukraine is having to do a big and deep reality check, which will pave the way for future - if more limited - successes. Do genocide, lie, kill. Do genocide, lie, kill. Do genocide, lie, kill. The Ukrainians will have to figure out how to play defense in a long war. But we know how that story ends. The Soviet Union in Afghanistan. The United States in Afghanistan. Ukraine has more men than Afghanistan, a much more advanced economy, and far better and stronger allies than the Taliban did. If the Taliban could fight a long defensive war and eventually grind the US and USSR down, Ukraine will have no problem figuring out how to do that with Russia. In the meantime, Vlad needs to prepare potentially millions of Russians to be turned into fertilizer as the Russian economy becomes more and more based on killing Russians. Go ahead. Try it. Maybe it will work better than for every other mass murdering sadist.

You are just echoing Vlad's transparent strategy. It has certain benefits. Do genocide, lie, kill. Do genocide, lie, kill. Do genocide, lie, kill. By all accounts the majority of dead are Russians. The genocide requires turning limitless numbers of Russians into fertilizer. A sadistic authoritarian can make that work for a long time. Vlad is planning on 170,000 more Russians. Why? Do genocide, lie, kill. Do genocide, lie, kill. Do genocide, lie, kill. Most of the new Russian soldiers will be fertilizer eventually. Vlad doesn't care. Do genocide, lie, kill. Do genocide, lie, kill. Do genocide, lie, kill. That's what Russia is all about today. You couldn't be making it clearer. Do genocide, lie, kill. Do genocide, lie, kill. Do genocide, lie, kill. Again, you're good at making the case for this. Just do genocide, lie, kill, and keep doing it. Eventually everyone will agree genocide is just being decent. Everyone everywhere, even in Poland, will say Vlad is just one helluva nice guy. But, actually, no. Goebbels died by suicide at the age of 47 after helping to destroy his country. So much for just repeating lies. Vlad can try it again and see how it works. But it never does.

I feel sorry for the guy. Who knew Putin wasn't the decent and forgiving fellow @Moses and @Kostik make him out to be? But some poor Russian soldier who went AWOL with one of Vlad's helicopters is small ball compared to what else Murderous Vlad his killed: How Russia killed its tech industry The invasion of Ukraine supercharged the decline of the country’s already struggling tech sector—and undercut its biggest success story, Yandex. Even TASS reports Russia has a shortage of 1 million IT specialists. Geez, wonder why? Putin can kill one helicopter pilot who escapes. He can't kill more than 10 % of the IT industry that fled. The fact that Putin's economy grew at all in 2023 was a surprise. But no one ever said Vlad's sadism was not clever and calculating. He's building a war economy that is good at two things: making weapons, and turning Russian men into fertilizer. At least with the former, there no doubt have to be some good engineering and manufacturing jobs. But the smart Russians know Russia is fucked for generations to come, even after Murderous Vlad is fertilizer himself. That is why they are leaving in droves.

Thanks for the explanation, @lookin. I was curious. And I agree with you. It's fair. And it makes sense, on this, and many things, to use Trump as an example of the consequences of pathological law breaking and lying.

Poor desperate thing. It hurts real bad to be unloved, doesn't it? Poor @Moses. How bad does it hurt to be hated? Spotlight on Poland: Negative Views of Russia Surge, but Ratings for U.S., NATO, EU Improve Poland and its Jews lived through - or died during - Hitler's genocidal nightmare. So they don't want a repeat with your genocidal sadist. That is for sure. They hate Putin. They see him for the genocidal monster he is. The Trump/MAGA crowd has no principles and is willing to throw Ukraine and Europe under the bus. And pretend to make peace with a genocidal sadist who is committing mass murder right now. Thank God for the Polands of the world, who are close enough to the genocidal bloodbath and don't want Putin's genocide in their borders. They hate you. They just hate you. And they always will. This is what Putin, your genocidal sadist, has done to Russia. The world hates you. And Poland in particular would love it if Putin's Russia just went to hell.

Upon checking, I go back to my main point, @EmmetK. You can't be trusted with facts. What in God's name did facts do to you? How bad does it hurt? I was on 538 checking polls and I thought I'd see what they say about Texas. So, you have one fact on your side. There are a few polls done in January and February this year that show Cruz with a double digit lead over either potential Democratic opponent. But there is another poll by NPA that shows Cruz and Allred in a dead even tie. And an Emerson poll that shows Cruz just two points ahead of Allred. Within the margin or error. The YouGov-sponsored polls clearly paint a more optimistic picture for Cruz than the others. Allred is actually doing better in polls against Cruz than Beto was in 2018. Which was a good year for Democrats. In 2018 the final RCP poll average showed Cruz beating Beto by 6.8 %, with individual polls ranging from a Cruz lead of 10 points to 3 points. Cruz actually won by 2.6 points. The Emerson poll was closest to the final result, showing Cruz beating Beto by 3 points. Emerson now shows Cruz beating Allred by only 2 points. Again, that's within the poll margin of error. We've heard that song about Texas going blue before. As much as I wish Taylor Zakhar Perez was down there organizing the shit out of the state, which he did in Red White & Royal Blue, in reality the President's son is actually Hunter Biden. So he won't be of much help in the way TZP's fictional son was. That said, Cruz is unpopular, too. And not just with most of his Senate colleagues. Oh, and did I mention Trump treats Cruz like a piece of shit? Being pissed on by Trump and running away to Mexico from a state with a power outage probably doesn't help Cruz with voters. Cruz wants to gut Obamacare. Cruz wants to gut abortion rights. Cruz wants tax cuts for the rich. Cruz is a phony who went to an elite school and pretends to be a populist. Except when it comes to walking through airports. If there is any red state US Senator who is disliked and phony and could lose in 2024, Cruz is the guy. What's most interesting about those polls to me is there is seemingly no difference in a general election between Allred and Gutierrez as Democratic candidates. I suspect some of that is it's early days and both may be relatively unknown. Gutierrez wears the progressive label on his sleeve. Allred is Mr. Moderation, with a strong helping of bipartisan compromise. Which probably explains why Allred is way ahead in the Democratic primary. People in Texas clearly want a moderate winner. It may also be that for the uber-MAGA Trump crowd, all Democrats are part of the Deep State/uber-Left/child blood drinking Hillary cock sucking crowd. The true MAGA folk will just send Trump their money as he pathologically lies and commits crimes. No wonder you can't be objective about facts. Or Allred's unlikely but definitely possible chances of winning. What did facts do to you, @EmmetK? What did they do to you?