Covid Spike in BKK?

[Sky]

I have been reading news reports discussing a spike in Covid cases in Bangkok, and throughout Thailand. I’m reading the numbers of new infections as of early June were remarkably high. The articles also discussed current outbreaks in Singapore, Hong Kong, and China.

Are any of you who are currently in Bangkok or who have recently visited, seeing any “evidence” of an infection at the bars, restaurants, or massage shops?

By evidence,I’m referring to visible signs, or workers being absent due to illness for reports from other visitors or other  workers..  I know one cannot see, diagnose, or confirm a Covid infection on a visual basis however, just curious if anyone has any information that is fresh and coming from someone who has just been there “ on the ground”.

Thanks in advance for any first hand reports.

 

[vinapu]

Coming from the airport this morning where I dropped my visiting guy notices quite high number of people wearing masks, perhaps 1 in 10 if not 8

[PeterRS]

I was at BNH last week for a bad bronchial cough. I was rather surprised that one of the tests they did was for covid.

[Moses]

6 hours ago, Sky said:

I have been reading news reports discussing a spike in Covid cases in Bangkok

Newspapers can't publish advertisement on empty pages, so they have something to publish. 

So they write about 20000 new cases and 3 deaths. Or about 10000 and 1 death.

The most significant thing is: how harmless is COVID in Thailand - 1 death from 7000-10000 cases, while in UK 1 death from each 50 (sic!) cases.

[thaiophilus]

11 hours ago, Moses said:

Newspapers can't publish advertisement on empty pages, so they have something to publish. 

So they write about 20000 new cases and 3 deaths. Or about 10000 and 1 death.

The most significant thing is: how harmless is COVID in Thailand - 1 death from 7000-10000 cases, while in UK 1 death from each 50 (sic!) cases.

That looks unlikely. I suspect your sources are defining their terms differently. So I asked duck.ai (GPT-4o):

"is the current covid death rate significantly different between Thailand and UK?"

It replied:

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Search

As of mid-June 2025, the COVID-19 death rates in Thailand and the UK show notable differences:

Thailand

• Total Confirmed Deaths: Approximately 34,715 deaths from around 4,799,180 confirmed cases.
• Death Rate: This results in a death rate of about 0.72% (34,715 deaths / 4,799,180 cases).

United Kingdom

• Recent COVID-19 Deaths: In the week ending June 13, 2025, there were 69 deaths attributed to COVID-19, which accounted for 0.6% of total deaths that week.
• Total Deaths Registered: The total number of deaths registered in the UK for that week was 10,902, with COVID-19 being the underlying cause for 45 deaths (0.4% of total deaths).

Comparison

• Overall Death Rate: The overall death rate in Thailand (0.72%) is higher than the recent COVID-19 death rate in the UK, which is significantly lower when considering the total population and the recent weekly statistics.
• Contextual Factors: The differences in death rates can be attributed to various factors, including healthcare systems, vaccination rates, public health responses, and demographic differences.

In summary, Thailand currently has a higher COVID-19 death rate compared to the UK, reflecting the ongoing impact of the pandemic in different regions.

Search Results

• COVID-19 pandemic death rates by countryWikipedia
• Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, pro...Office for National Statistics

 

[Sky]

Thanks for all the replies and constructive information.  
 

Not just seeing newspaper articles, am reading Thai medical info from public health and university medical centers.  
 

Reading data from Singapore and Hong Kong/ China about greatly increased infections.  
 

Many visitors are seniors, or have comorbidity conditions which make for increased risk.  
 

Any additional info or first hand information from venues would be greatly appreciated. 

[Moses]

1 hour ago, thaiophilus said:

The total number of deaths registered in the UK for that week was 10,902,

well it is problem for UK, when statistic office publishing 10902 and UKHSA publishing 1292 weekly cases

https://ukhsa-dashboard.data.gov.uk/respiratory-viruses/covid-19

[Riobard]

3 hours ago, Sky said:

Thanks for all the replies and constructive information.  
 

Not just seeing newspaper articles, am reading Thai medical info from public health and university medical centers.  
 

Reading data from Singapore and Hong Kong/ China about greatly increased infections.  
 

Many visitors are seniors, or have comorbidity conditions which make for increased risk.  
 

Any additional info or first hand information from venues would be greatly appreciated. 

I follow bi-weekly WHO epi bulletins and I translate to exposure risk based on established algorithms that adjust for case contagion period and incidence ascertainment bias. Incidence in Thailand surged early May but has since settled to about half that recent curve peak.

For Thailand mid-June, not adjusted for regional variation, your interaction with 25 individuals on any given day means an exposure risk of 60%. Obviously that does not guarantee viral transmission. If you want to lower that risk metric to a set value you need to tell me what your risk tolerance is in percentage terms and I can compute what rule of thumb to employ regarding number of contacts. These would be contacts in which common sense in terms of physical proximity would guide you behaviourally.

Mortality is trending at about 1 in 2,000 cases, .05%, or less if the true incidence denominator is underestimated. 

[Riobard]

5 hours ago, thaiophilus said:

That looks unlikely. I suspect your sources are defining their terms differently. So I asked duck.ai (GPT-4o):

"is the current covid death rate significantly different between Thailand and UK?"

It replied:

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Search

As of mid-June 2025, the COVID-19 death rates in Thailand and the UK show notable differences:

Thailand

• Total Confirmed Deaths: Approximately 34,715 deaths from around 4,799,180 confirmed cases.
• Death Rate: This results in a death rate of about 0.72% (34,715 deaths / 4,799,180 cases).

United Kingdom

• Recent COVID-19 Deaths: In the week ending June 13, 2025, there were 69 deaths attributed to COVID-19, which accounted for 0.6% of total deaths that week.
• Total Deaths Registered: The total number of deaths registered in the UK for that week was 10,902, with COVID-19 being the underlying cause for 45 deaths (0.4% of total deaths).

Comparison

• Overall Death Rate: The overall death rate in Thailand (0.72%) is higher than the recent COVID-19 death rate in the UK, which is significantly lower when considering the total population and the recent weekly statistics.
• Contextual Factors: The differences in death rates can be attributed to various factors, including healthcare systems, vaccination rates, public health responses, and demographic differences.

In summary, Thailand currently has a higher COVID-19 death rate compared to the UK, reflecting the ongoing impact of the pandemic in different regions.

Search Results

• COVID-19 pandemic death rates by countryWikipedia
• Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, pro...Office for National Statistics

 

If a Medicine student I’m research mentoring produced this quality of reporting they would be going back to the drawing board after disposing of the stinking trash heap produced by the ill-advised AI attempt. 

[Travelingguy]

20 hours ago, PeterRS said:

I was at BNH last week for a bad bronchial cough. I was rather surprised that one of the tests they did was for covid.

People are tested for Covid every day all over the world.

However, the best information on population prevalence is probably the work related to sewage sampling for Covid and other illnesses 

[Sky]

2 hours ago, Riobard said:

I follow bi-weekly WHO epi bulletins and I translate to exposure risk based on established algorithms that adjust for case contagion period and incidence ascertainment bias. Incidence in Thailand surged early May but has since settled to about half that recent curve peak.

For Thailand mid-June, not adjusted for regional variation, your interaction with 25 individuals on any given day means an exposure risk of 60%. Obviously that does not guarantee viral transmission. If you want to lower that risk metric to a set value you need to tell me what your risk tolerance is in percentage terms and I can compute what rule of thumb to employ regarding number of contacts. These would be contacts in which common sense in terms of physical proximity would guide you behaviourally.

Mortality is trending at about 1 in 2,000 cases, .05%, or less if the true incidence denominator is underestimated. 

Thank you @Riobard for your fact/research based reply.  It’s good to hear that the incidence in Thailand has settled to about half of the recent curve peak. Hopefully that trend line continues and within the next 30 to 60days one can hope for another decline.

My risk tolerance is more in line with 25% (zero is unrealistic). Being vaccinated should result in that 25% contact exposure risk being even less.

I’m planning to go to Bangkok mid July, and have been hoping for some indication of a decline in the infection rate. My cause for concern is particularly based upon the large number of visitors from Singapore, Hong Kong and China, where infection rates have been particularly high. Those visitors typically visit the same venues I do which include restaurants, bars, massage venues, shopping centers, etc.

Personally, I don’t like being around sick people and I’ve never had Covid. The new variant NB 1.8.1 is more highly contagious than prior types.
No one wants to fly into a “war zone” just to have a good time! 

[Riobard]

1 hour ago, Travelingguy said:

People are tested for Covid every day all over the world.

However, the best information on population prevalence is probably the work related to sewage sampling for Covid and other illnesses 

Certainly valuable as an adjunct to the agenda of prevalence estimation and stratification of predominant variants. And fecally fascinating. Moreover, the same samples can be utilized for flu and RSV shedding and Canada does that surveillance with consistently up to date ratings.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436524000549?ref=pdf_download&fr=RR-2&rr=956968a7b901a2b6

[Riobard]

51 minutes ago, Sky said:

Thank you @Riobard for your fact/research based reply.  It’s good to hear that the incidence in Thailand has settled to about half of the recent curve peak. Hopefully that trend line continues and within the next 30 to 60days one can hope for another decline.

My risk tolerance is more in line with 25% (zero is unrealistic). Being vaccinated should result in that 25% contact exposure risk being even less.

I’m planning to go to Bangkok mid July, and have been hoping for some indication of a decline in the infection rate. My cause for concern is particularly based upon the large number of visitors from Singapore, Hong Kong and China, where infection rates have been particularly high. Those visitors typically visit the same venues I do which include restaurants, bars, massage venues, shopping centers, etc.

Personally, I don’t like being around sick people and I’ve never had Covid. The new variant NB 1.8.1 is more highly contagious than prior types.
No one wants to fly into a “war zone” just to have a good time! 

China and Hong Kong incidence trending down from a recent peak. In that same period Singapore was trending upwards but the pattern in the broader region has been a shortlived surge.

A risk tolerance of 25% infection event probability sets the estimate person contact number as 8, pared down from the 25 I previously outlined as associated with 60% risk.

I can update briefly from the next bulletin first week of July.

[daydreamer]

7 hours ago, thaiophilus said:

That looks unlikely. I suspect your sources are defining their terms differently. So I asked duck.ai (GPT-4o):

"is the current covid death rate significantly different between Thailand and UK?"

It replied:

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Search

As of mid-June 2025, the COVID-19 death rates in Thailand and the UK show notable differences:

Thailand

• Total Confirmed Deaths: Approximately 34,715 deaths from around 4,799,180 confirmed cases.
• Death Rate: This results in a death rate of about 0.72% (34,715 deaths / 4,799,180 cases).

United Kingdom

• Recent COVID-19 Deaths: In the week ending June 13, 2025, there were 69 deaths attributed to COVID-19, which accounted for 0.6% of total deaths that week.
• Total Deaths Registered: The total number of deaths registered in the UK for that week was 10,902, with COVID-19 being the underlying cause for 45 deaths (0.4% of total deaths).

Comparison

• Overall Death Rate: The overall death rate in Thailand (0.72%) is higher than the recent COVID-19 death rate in the UK, which is significantly lower when considering the total population and the recent weekly statistics.
• Contextual Factors: The differences in death rates can be attributed to various factors, including healthcare systems, vaccination rates, public health responses, and demographic differences.

In summary, Thailand currently has a higher COVID-19 death rate compared to the UK, reflecting the ongoing impact of the pandemic in different regions.

Search Results

• COVID-19 pandemic death rates by countryWikipedia
• Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, pro...Office for National Statistics

 

It seems AI may be an educated fool, in that it knows many things, but it lacks common sense.

In the example above, duck.ai (GPT-4o) is comparing apples to oranges, and coming up with a mistaken conclusion.  It has taken the total (cumulative) deaths from Thailand (since COVID-19 began), and compared them to one week of recent UK deaths.

The Thailand number of COVID-19 deaths reported to WHO for the 7 days to 8 June 2025 was 43.

For the same reporting period, the UK shows no data on the WHO site.  However, for the week ending 6 June 2025, the UK's Office for National Statistics reported  77 deaths from COVID-19. 

Given that the population of Thailand is larger than that of the UK, I would venture to challenge the above conclusion by duck.ai (GPT-4o), and determine that the current death rate from COVID-19 in the UK is higher than the current death rate from COVID-19 in Thailand.

https://data.who.int/dashboards/covid19/deaths?m49=001&n=c

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending6june2025

https://globalstatcompare.com/compare?countries[]=THA&countries[]=GBR

 

[Riobard]

And absolute weekly number of Thailand deaths has since halved, so I wouldn’t compare the mortality rate between two nations according to population denominators based on as short a period as one week. Besides, the only reason mortality was raised, essentially a nothing-burger tangent that was meant to dismiss the implications of infection during a holiday, was to throw a curve into the inquiry. It wasn’t a question about the worst possible outcome or the quality of epidemiological surveillance. 

[daydreamer]

That's why I said current death rate.  

That was the most recent comparable data I could find from June 2025.

[Riobard]

27 minutes ago, daydreamer said:

That's why I said current death rate.  

That was the most recent comparable data I could find from June 2025.

Right, understood. But there are an additional few weeks of mortality data and that was the basis of my point about temporal periods. You are bang on the money in assessing and illustrating that the program read “current” from the question posed and then confounded cumulative and recent. The problem is that both cumulative data and recent data are current while the former combines the historical with the latest, net historical because a minute ago is history. The output can only be as good as the framing of the inquiry.