1 hour ago, Pete1111 said:

 

 

And speaking of cesspool.  There are few conservative blowhards I dislike more than Ted Cruz and Laura Ingraham.  So this is sweet.

Tell it, Lyin Ted.

 

They obviously have figured out they have a big Texas problem.  And the two cesspool buddies are whining like bitches.  Poor things!

We've all learned that polls consistently underestimate Trump's support - when he is on the ballot.  It seems to me that with midterms it is either neutral, or even that polls underestimate Democratic strength. 

2022 was expected to go badly for Democrats, and it didn't.  In 2018 I was following a bunch of Senate races I was contributing too closely.  And the polls were pretty accurate.  McCaskill in Missouri and Heitkamp in North Dakota, among others, were doing okay in the polls until the whole Kavanaugh thing started.  Which drove out the Testicle Vote in red states, but helped women in House races in blue districts.

So it ain't over until it's over.  But even without any more of a blue wave than we have right now, looks like we keep Georgia and Michigan and gain North Carolina, Ohio, Maine, and Alaska.  That's technically enough.  So Democrats don't need Texas or Iowa to have a majority.  But if something that could be called a real blue wave develops, Iowa and Texas could go blue again, too.

Kicking Ken Paxton and Ted Cruz in the balls would sure be sweet!  And since Iowa really turned solid red due to Trump, and Texas has been solid red for a long time, getting a Democrat elected to the Senate in either or both states would be a clear sign that our piece of shit POTUS that could never win 50.000000001 % is just a miserable fucking loser!

Of course, we could always send Trump to Canada, rather than prison.  Canadians seem to love Trump!  🤔

6 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

 

And speaking of cesspool.  There are few conservative blowhards I dislike more than Ted Cruz and Laura Ingraham.  So this is sweet.

Tell it, Lyin Ted.

 

They obviously have figured out they have a big Texas problem.  And the two cesspool buddies are whining like bitches.  Poor things!

We've all learned that polls consistently underestimate Trump's support - when he is on the ballot.  It seems to me that with midterms it is either neutral, or even that polls underestimate Democratic strength. 

2022 was expected to go badly for Democrats, and it didn't.  In 2018 I was following a bunch of Senate races I was contributing too closely.  And the polls were pretty accurate.  McCaskill in Missouri and Heitkamp in North Dakota, among others, were doing okay in the polls until the whole Kavanaugh thing started.  Which drove out the Testicle Vote in red states, but helped women in House races in blue districts.

So it ain't over until it's over.  But even without any more of a blue wave than we have right now, looks like we keep Georgia and Michigan and gain North Carolina, Ohio, Maine, and Alaska.  That's technically enough.  So Democrats don't need Texas or Iowa to have a majority.  But if something that could be called a real blue wave develops, Iowa and Texas could go blue again, too.

Kicking Ken Paxton and Ted Cruz in the balls would sure be sweet!  And since Iowa really turned solid red due to Trump, and Texas has been solid red for a long time, getting a Democrat elected to the Senate in either or both states would be a clear sign that our piece of shit POTUS that could never win 50.000000001 % is just a miserable fucking loser!

Of course, we could always send Trump to Canada, rather than prison.  Canadians seem to love Trump!  🤔

So Cruz calls Talarico a communist?

The Repubs keep tossing around the term "Communist".  Does anyone besides the Cult buy into that?

 

4 hours ago, Pete1111 said:

The Repubs keep tossing around the term "Communist".  Does anyone besides the Cult buy into that?

It's actually fun to watch them running scared.  Especially castrated little pussy JD Vance.

I will give Trump credit for this.  If you are going to be Roy Cohn, you really want to be an incredible asshole.  It's the logic of authoritarians.  If they don't lick the shit off your ass, kill them.  Or at least be relentlessly insulting to Lyin Ted Cruz and Little Marco Rubio.  And if if you can shoot someone in the middle of 5th Ave. and get away with it, why the fuck not?  🤔

I don't get it, since I am not an authoritarian follower.

But JD Vance is a castrated little pussy compared to Trump.  The castrated little pussy has been saying for years we should be America First.  And we should not be spending blood and treasure in places like Ukraine or Iran.  And then his narcissistic amoeba brain boss invades Iran on a whim.  And the castrated little pussy says has to eat his words in public defending President Amoeba's dumb fuck impulses.  The castrated little pussy is gonna have to explain why he was the mouthpiece for a fucked up and failed war that is America Last in 2028.  Pussy!  

So the castrated little pussy boy uses Dog Whistle 101 language about how El Sayed thinks we should "have sharia law".  And how if you criticize that idea you must be a White supremacist.  And about how El Sayed is "evil" for some vague reason that better describes how Donald Trump sows hatred by pitting one group against another.  So El Sayed goes into how making health care and food unaffordable is what's really evil.

El Sayed has actually done slightly better in the polls since the castrated little pussy boy started a fight he can't win.  But that is what these losers do.  Start fights they can't win.

I think El Sayed does come off a little too cocky for his own good.  But in this case the castrated little pussy boy asked for it by calling him "evil" for allegedly doing what Vance's amoeba brain boss actually does do - constantly.

Abdul had the better insult, I think.  He just called Vance boring.

There is no evidence so far that "communist" or "evil" or "they want sharia law" is working.  It's just pussy boys using dog whistles. 

Poor Papaw can't help.  Maybe JD's momma will punch Abdul, like she said she's like to to protect her castrated pussy boy son.

On 9/4/2026 at 12:30 AM, stevenkesslar said:

It's actually fun to watch them running scared.  Especially castrated little pussy JD Vance.

I will give Trump credit for this.  If you are going to be Roy Cohn, you really want to be an incredible asshole.  It's the logic of authoritarians.  If they don't lick the shit off your ass, kill them.  Or at least be relentlessly insulting to Lyin Ted Cruz and Little Marco Rubio.  And if if you can shoot someone in the middle of 5th Ave. and get away with it, why the fuck not?  🤔

I don't get it, since I am not an authoritarian follower.

But JD Vance is a castrated little pussy compared to Trump.  The castrated little pussy has been saying for years we should be America First.  And we should not be spending blood and treasure in places like Ukraine or Iran.  And then his narcissistic amoeba brain boss invades Iran on a whim.  And the castrated little pussy says has to eat his words in public defending President Amoeba's dumb fuck impulses.  The castrated little pussy is gonna have to explain why he was the mouthpiece for a fucked up and failed war that is America Last in 2028.  Pussy!  

So the castrated little pussy boy uses Dog Whistle 101 language about how El Sayed thinks we should "have sharia law".  And how if you criticize that idea you must be a White supremacist.  And about how El Sayed is "evil" for some vague reason that better describes how Donald Trump sows hatred by pitting one group against another.  So El Sayed goes into how making health care and food unaffordable is what's really evil.

El Sayed has actually done slightly better in the polls since the castrated little pussy boy started a fight he can't win.  But that is what these losers do.  Start fights they can't win.

I think El Sayed does come off a little too cocky for his own good.  But in this case the castrated little pussy boy asked for it by calling him "evil" for allegedly doing what Vance's amoeba brain boss actually does do - constantly.

Abdul had the better insult, I think.  He just called Vance boring.

There is no evidence so far that "communist" or "evil" or "they want sharia law" is working.  It's just pussy boys using dog whistles. 

Poor Papaw can't help.  Maybe JD's momma will punch Abdul, like she said she's like to to protect her castrated pussy boy son.

On 9/4/2026 at 3:30 AM, stevenkesslar said:

It's actually fun to watch them running scared..

On 9/4/2026 at 3:30 AM, stevenkesslar said:

It's actually fun to watch them running scared.  .

It's even more fun to read the crap you post. Have your political instincts improved since November 8, 2024? How did that work out for you? LOL.
Still worshipping at the feet of your icon, Allan Lichtman? What a total embarrassment he turned out to be. Of course, not nearly as embarrassing as you, who touted him as the greatest political prognosticator of modern day. Is he still hiding in his hole? Or have you joined him in there? Not likely since even he would be too ashamed to be seen in public with a 70-year old washed up hooker.

On 9/4/2026 at 12:30 AM, stevenkesslar said:

It's actually fun to watch them running scared.  Especially castrated little pussy JD Vance.

I will give Trump credit for this.  If you are going to be Roy Cohn, you really want to be an incredible asshole.  It's the logic of authoritarians.  If they don't lick the shit off your ass, kill them.  Or at least be relentlessly insulting to Lyin Ted Cruz and Little Marco Rubio.  And if if you can shoot someone in the middle of 5th Ave. and get away with it, why the fuck not?  🤔

I don't get it, since I am not an authoritarian follower.

But JD Vance is a castrated little pussy compared to Trump.  The castrated little pussy has been saying for years we should be America First.  And we should not be spending blood and treasure in places like Ukraine or Iran.  And then his narcissistic amoeba brain boss invades Iran on a whim.  And the castrated little pussy says has to eat his words in public defending President Amoeba's dumb fuck impulses.  The castrated little pussy is gonna have to explain why he was the mouthpiece for a fucked up and failed war that is America Last in 2028.  Pussy!  

So the castrated little pussy boy uses Dog Whistle 101 language about how El Sayed thinks we should "have sharia law".  And how if you criticize that idea you must be a White supremacist.  And about how El Sayed is "evil" for some vague reason that better describes how Donald Trump sows hatred by pitting one group against another.  So El Sayed goes into how making health care and food unaffordable is what's really evil.

El Sayed has actually done slightly better in the polls since the castrated little pussy boy started a fight he can't win.  But that is what these losers do.  Start fights they can't win.

I think El Sayed does come off a little too cocky for his own good.  But in this case the castrated little pussy boy asked for it by calling him "evil" for allegedly doing what Vance's amoeba brain boss actually does do - constantly.

Abdul had the better insult, I think.  He just called Vance boring.

There is no evidence so far that "communist" or "evil" or "they want sharia law" is working.  It's just pussy boys using dog whistles. 

Poor Papaw can't help.  Maybe JD's momma will punch Abdul, like she said she's like to to protect her castrated pussy boy son.

The MAGA elite depend on their sheeple being lazy thinkers. Spoon feed the MAGA sheeple some emotionally charged pablum and they lick it up and come back for more "please sir can I have some more."

All of the foreign wars that The Great Incompetent has started seems to have eroded his base somewhat. It's amazing what is required to have some reality from Earth 1 seep through into the MAGA sheeples' brains.

7 hours ago, EmmetK said:

Not likely since even he would be too ashamed to be seen in public with a 70-year old washed up hooker.

As always, your facts are wrong.

But you are right about one thing, Sadism Clown. Despite all the death and destruction and hate spawned by your dumb ass loser Trump, you have no shame. Absolutely none. He's a complete fucking failure. Lots of MAGA has turned against him. Most of the world has turned against America. The half of America who rejected him twice was right. Twice.

But you have no shame. You're as narcissistic as Trump.

I assume you're still behind the Genocide Jew and his mass murder too, huh? Can't have enough dead Palestinian women, can you? Or dead kids in Africa or Asia who no longer get their HIV meds, thanks to Musk and Trump?

And you wanna keep score about Allan Lichtman while Trump flails and fails? Shows what a smart Sadism Clown you are, and what your priorities are.

How many kids in Gaza and Asia are you hoping die today, Sadism Clown? You're all about The Genocide Jew still, right?

11 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

As always, your facts are wrong.

But you are right about one thing, Sadism Clown. Despite all the death and destruction and hate spawned by your dumb ass loser Trump, you have no shame. Absolutely none. He's a complete fucking failure. Lots of MAGA has turned against him. Most of the world has turned against America. The half of America who rejected him twice was right. Twice.

But you have no shame. You're as narcissistic as Trump.

I assume you're still behind the Genocide Jew and his mass murder too, huh? Can't have enough dead Palestinian women, can you? Or dead kids in Africa or Asia who no longer get their HIV meds, thanks to Musk and Trump?

And you wanna keep score about Allan Lichtman while Trump flails and fails? Shows what a smart Sadism Clown you are, and what your priorities are.

How many kids in Gaza and Asia are you hoping die today, Sadism Clown? You're all about The Genocide Jew still, right?

Hey Mr. "Great political instincts", Is this the only Jew you don't hate?

And how did that work out for you? LOL.
Note for the future: When one idiot (who thinks of himself as having "great political instincts") shows respect for the opinion of another idiot (a so-called "expert"), it is time to pack it up. You both now have ZERO credibility. Repeat: ZERO!

14 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

As always, your facts are wrong.

But you are right about one thing, Sadism Clown. Despite all the death and destruction and hate spawned by your dumb ass loser Trump, you have no shame. Absolutely none. He's a complete fucking failure. Lots of MAGA has turned against him. Most of the world has turned against America. The half of America who rejected him twice was right. Twice.

But you have no shame. You're as narcissistic as Trump.

I assume you're still behind the Genocide Jew and his mass murder too, huh? Can't have enough dead Palestinian women, can you? Or dead kids in Africa or Asia who no longer get their HIV meds, thanks to Musk and Trump?

And you wanna keep score about Allan Lichtman while Trump flails and fails? Shows what a smart Sadism Clown you are, and what your priorities are.

How many kids in Gaza and Asia are you hoping die today, Sadism Clown? You're all about The Genocide Jew still, right?

Best to address the lies without directly engaging - in my humble opinion. When you're walking along the street and come upon a St. Bernard's dump do you step in it, or do you safely avoid it and comment "wow that was a big shit."

It's tempting to take the hate bate.

3 hours ago, EmmetK said:

Hey Mr. "Great political instincts", Is this the only Jew you don't hate?

Are Jewish children the only ones you don't want dead, Sadism Clown?

Trump and Musk are killing kids all over the world by taking their HIV meds away, which were provided through USAID. Even sometimes Trump ass kisser Joe Rogan acts confused and almost sorry when Bono informs him of this. "Duh! How was I supposed to know?"

But it seems to delight Sadism Clown. Sadism Clown relishes in the cruelty. How many more dead kids with HIV do you want, Sadism Clown?

And I was wondering how many seconds it would take you to go to your favorite hate trope.

If you're not for The Genocide Jew, and you're not for genocide, you hate Jews.

You're a sad cruel Jew, aren't you, Sadism Clown? You're a disgrace to your religion. You are a disgrace to ALL religion, Sadism Clown.

Saying it's wrong for Catholic priests to be pedophiles is not anti-Catholic. Saying it's wrong to embrace genocide and the Genocide Jew like you do is not anti-Jewish. Most American Jews don't support what the Genocide Jew is doing, of course. You're just a big old Jewish hater, ain't ya, Sadism Clown? You seem to love to hate.

If religion stands for anything, it ought to stand for being against genocide. You're not, Sadism Clown.

You are THE Genocide Jew lover. You love it and defend it when the Genocide Jew kills tens of thousands of kids, plus their Moms.

How many more dead kids do you want, Sadism Clown?

Why are you so proud of your sadism and cruelty? Is that what makes you a good Jew in your sad twisted mind?

2 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:

Are Jewish children the only ones you don't want dead, Sadism Clown?

Trump and Musk are killing kids all over the world by taking their HIV meds away, which were provided through USAID. Even sometimes Trump ass kisser Joe Rogan acts confused and almost sorry when Bono informs him of this. "Duh! How was I supposed to know?"

But it seems to delight Sadism Clown. Sadism Clown relishes in the cruelty. How many more dead kids with HIV do you want, Sadism Clown?

And I was wondering how many seconds it would take you to go to your favorite hate trope.

If you're not for The Genocide Jew, and you're not for genocide, you hate Jews.

You're a sad cruel Jew, aren't you, Sadism Clown? You're a disgrace to your religion. You are a disgrace to ALL religion, Sadism Clown.

Saying it's wrong for Catholic priests to be pedophiles is not anti-Catholic. Saying it's wrong to embrace genocide and the Genocide Jew like you do is not anti-Jewish. Most American Jews don't support what the Genocide Jew is doing, of course. You're just a big old Jewish hater, ain't ya, Sadism Clown? You seem to love to hate.

If religion stands for anything, it ought to stand for being against genocide. You're not, Sadism Clown.

You are THE Genocide Jew lover. You love it and defend it when the Genocide Jew kills tens of thousands of kids, plus their Moms.

How many more dead kids do you want, Sadism Clown?

Why are you so proud of your sadism and cruelty? Is that what makes you a good Jew in your sad twisted mind?

Step past the steam pile of shit, and continue on with your day and your thoughts.

4 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:

Are Jewish children the only ones you don't want dead, Sadism Clown?

Trump and Musk are killing kids all over the world by taking their HIV meds away, which were provided through USAID. Even sometimes Trump ass kisser Joe Rogan acts confused and almost sorry when Bono informs him of this. "Duh! How was I supposed to know?"

But it seems to delight Sadism Clown. Sadism Clown relishes in the cruelty. How many more dead kids with HIV do you want, Sadism Clown?

And I was wondering how many seconds it would take you to go to your favorite hate trope.

If you're not for The Genocide Jew, and you're not for genocide, you hate Jews.

You're a sad cruel Jew, aren't you, Sadism Clown? You're a disgrace to your religion. You are a disgrace to ALL religion, Sadism Clown.

Saying it's wrong for Catholic priests to be pedophiles is not anti-Catholic. Saying it's wrong to embrace genocide and the Genocide Jew like you do is not anti-Jewish. Most American Jews don't support what the Genocide Jew is doing, of course. You're just a big old Jewish hater, ain't ya, Sadism Clown? You seem to love to hate.

If religion stands for anything, it ought to stand for being against genocide. You're not, Sadism Clown.

You are THE Genocide Jew lover. You love it and defend it when the Genocide Jew kills tens of thousands of kids, plus their Moms.

How many more dead kids do you want, Sadism Clown?

Why are you so proud of your sadism and cruelty? Is that what makes you a good Jew in your sad twisted mind?

Well, let's actually look at the thru-line here. Bibi is the proponent of Genocide, the Jewish people arent, and Bibi is a friend of Trumps, and Trump hates "ethnics", so Bibi is actually doing what Trump encourages and endorses.... ALL roads lead back to Trump, although The Iran war WAS Bibi's idea.... Bibi finally found the accommodating stooge he was searching for for years !

But it is also no surprise that thru out history The Jews get blamed for everything, and have suffered for it....... And while Jews suffer, the anti-semites like Kunt Klown salivate.... Its just natural to who they are...... RACIST FUCKS !

And NOW, a moment for a Hassan Piker palate cleanser !

3 hours ago, EmmetK said:

You both now have ZERO credibility. Repeat: ZERO!

I can go on about this Lichtman stuff forever. I'm a political whore and a policy wonk. So here goes.

I think it is very appropriate to discuss this right now. Trump is in huge trouble with American voters. And even though they are NOT designed to assess or predict midterm elections, I think Lichtman's Keys To The Presidency help explain why Trump and Republicans are in big trouble right now.

11 minutes ago, RockyRoadTravel said:

Step past the steam pile of shit, and continue on with your day and your thoughts.

I will. Thank you. In my own mind, it is fair and appropriate to point out that Sadism Clown is not here for a policy debate, or political thought. Calling me, incorrectly, a "70 year old" washed up hooker pretty much sums up what Sadism Clown is here for. Hate, and cruelty.

But now back to our regularly scheduled political thought.

The YouTube summary describes Rich Baris as a "MAGA pollster." Baris himself, in the interview, describes himself as pretty much as MAGA as MAGA can be. In this context, my point is Rich Baris is doing his best to be like Alan Lichtman. Who is a liberal Democratic Jew with a world famous election prediction system that failed in 2024, leaving big egg on Lichtman's face. They both want to understand what is happening in American politics. And how it impacts the world.

I think you can put what Baris says here and Lichtman's Keys and 2024 together. And it helps create understanding about what people care about. Which is NOT what Sadism Clown wants. My point about Sadism Clown is he is NOT like MAGA pollster Rich Baris. Sadism Clown wants hate, not understanding. Sadism Clown understands if you can rile people up and divide them and get them to hate, you can maybe win 49 % of the vote or so.

What Baris talks about can be expressed simply in one sentence, and two words: prices, and war. Baris thinks that is what is killing Trump, including with MAGA, right now.

And, I think prices and war are what killed Biden and Harris in 2024. That's my take on what Lichtman got wrong.

Trump, by the way, thinks the same. Trump says he won in 2024 because of prices, the border, and war. Trump, of course, promised to end the Ukraine War right after the 2024 election. And not start another loser America weakening Forever War. Oops!

You can watch the Tim Baris video if you want. It's not earth shocking or anything new to people who followed how young male voters or some Latino voters or Joe Rogan moved toward Trump in 2024. And are now moving away from him fast. If Talarico wins in Texas - who I am proudly sending money to every month to help win - Baris nails why even a red state like Texas could flip. At least in 2026.

Back to Lichtman. His Keys system is based on 13 Keys. He said in Fall 2024 that Harris had 8 in her favor. Had he taken two away, it would have been just like 2016. And he would have correctly predicted a narrow Trump win, like he did in 2016.

That is a very short and sweet summary of Lichtman's 13 Keys. My own opinion is that two Keys, and Lichtman's biased interpretation of his own Keys, explain why he got 2024 wrong: short term economy, and war victory. Lichtman does not agree with me, for reasons I will go into later.

I think Lichtman was wrong about the short term economy. And this gets very geeky. I was described in a book about successful national working class homeownership programs I helped start as a "26 year old self taught data geek whose college mentor was Paul Wellstone." Guilty as charged. Unlike Sadism Clown, that author got my age - at the time - and my intentions right. So this is the same. In 2024 I actually found and watched an interview from 1992 in which Lichtman explained why Clinton would beat Bush 41. Lichtman argued, correctly, that even though the recession was over, people felt like they were in a recession. Bill Clinton would agree. It's the economy, stupid.

I watched that 1992 interview in 2024 because the contradiction bothered me. I think I may have said that in my long-winded posts in 2024. It's a detail. But in this case, a key one. Why does what Lichtman is saying in 2024 seem to contradict what he said in 1992? If it feels like a recession, it is a recession!

Trump rode that in 2024. It's the Bidenflation, stupid. I think far and away the reason Trump won was prices, and Bidenflation. Trump has said the same, repeatedly. I think Lichtman proved that, as useful as his system is, it is subjective. And we all have biases.

Ukraine is harder. I got around my own doubts about Lichtman in 2024 by saying Harris has 2 Keys in her favor. So even if he is wrong about the economy Key, she should still win. The other Key that is worthy of debate, especially now, is Key 13: "The White House party has major foreign policy success." Lichtman argued that Ukraine was a Biden victory, or at least would be in the long run. Was it?

I think that is very shades of grey. Like many Americans, I was stunned and disgusted in early 2025 when Trump threw Ukraine under the bus. And Trump seemed to get down on his knees to suck Putin's cock. You can make all kinds of arguments about why he did that. Personally, it disgusted me. But I know even in my own family there is this "America First" thing that my Reaganite Dad would disapprove of, were he still alive. America SHOULD help promote democracy and help countries like Ukraine, my WW2 veteran Dad thought. He spent his life being proud that he, and America, beat the Nazis. Lots of MAGA people do not agree with my Reagan loving dead Dad. Including a few of his own beloved grandchildren.

As it relates to 2024, there's a great argument that Ukraine was not a Biden/Harris foreign policy success. Take that and the economy away, and Harris should have lost. And she did.

As it relates to 2026, the Iran fiasco has now settled the question, in my mind. Ukraine was a very divisive issue. Trump's win in 2024 did prove that many Americans are not on board with the idea that it is America's job to defend countries like Ukraine. Or even defend NATO. But now Trump is suffering from the very fires and divisions he stoked. Which is, again, what Sadism Clown loves. Fire. Hate. Division. Now Trump has to contend with the fact that millions of his own voters in 2024 feel he lied to them. He did not lower prices. He did not end a Forever War. He started a new one. Which America is losing. The world is quickly turning against America.

That is what "MAGA pollster" Baris says in the interview above. Maybe he will be wrong, like Lichtman in 2024. We'll see.

Either way, I am proud I sent money to Sherrod Brown in 2024, even if he lost. If he loses again in 2026, I'll be proud again. Since he ran both times, and he is a poster child for a pro-union and pro-working class Democrat, losing in 2024 and winning in 2026 in reddish Ohio would be a pretty good thumbnail about what changed. It's about the working class, stupid.

I'll wind down by taking a dig at Lichtman. The one thing that really turned me off about Lichtman was his interpretation of why he was wrong. It would have been noble to eat some humble pie, and say we all have our biases. Instead he basically blamed it on stupid voters being misled. To me, it reinforced the stereotype that Democratic liberal (and often Jewish) academics will speak down to the working class and explain to them why they are stupid and wrong.

I think Lichtman's Keys are very useful, and as valid as ever. Early in his career he did try to come up with some system to predict other races, and never came close. To me, it all proves that this is subjective stuff. Even what "recession" means is subjective, now more than ever. But Lichtman and Baris are on to what matters to voters, I think. It helps me understand why Trump barely won in 2024, with less than 50 % of the vote. And why he will get clobbered now, probably.

If there is a lesson for guys like Paul Wellstone or Sherrod Brown or El Sayed who want to be US Senators to take away, it's simple: "It's the working class, stupid!" But the reason these guys tend to win is they got the memo.

And, by the way, Sadism Clown is right. I do have a problem with Jews like Paul Wellstone, and his values. My problem is that more people, especially Sadism Clown, don't exhibit the warmth of heart and compassion for Americans - or immigrants - that Wellstone did. He spoke often about how HIS values were based on his immigrant Jewish ancestors who fled TO America. That is the America most Americans want. Not the America of cruel and hateful Donald Trump, and his Grift Family, which is the world his loyal Sadism Clown wants.

Who we are:

Who we were:

And, no. We won't ever see Trump's face on Mount Rushmore.

1 hour ago, Suckrates said:

And NOW, a moment for a Hassan Piker palate cleanser !

Sorry to spoil it with the image on the left, Sis.

I was unaware of Piker until his connection with El Sayed moved him front and center. My bad. I was also unaware of his physical transformation and decision to lose weight. Kudos to him.

I've probably spent 15 minutes listening to anything Piker has to say. I've spent more than that reading what other people think about what he has to say. Like whether he is anti-Semitic or anti-American.

So far, I get more impressed with him the more I learn. One way to summarize his message is, "Get smart about politics. And lose weight." Democrats do have a problem with young men. If guys like Piker and El Sayed who like lifting weights help address that, more weights!

Maybe Zohran will even get the memo. As well hung as he is, according to you, he could beef up a little.

51 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:

Sorry to spoil it with the image on the left, Sis.

I was unaware of Piker until his connection with El Sayed moved him front and center. My bad. I was also unaware of his physical transformation and decision to lose weight. Kudos to him.

I've probably spent 15 minutes listening to anything Piker has to say. I've spent more than that reading what other people think about what he has to say. Like whether he is anti-Semitic or anti-American.

So far, I get more impressed with him the more I learn. One way to summarize his message is, "Get smart about politics. And lose weight." Democrats do have a problem with young men. If guys like Piker and El Sayed who like lifting weights help address that, more weights!

Maybe Zohran will even get the memo. As well hung as he is, according to you, he could beef up a little.

We'll see how it goes....my hubby Zohran is a very busy man, and I need COCK....... Hassan has a bit more time on his hands, and gotta admit, he is a sexy MOFO now....... As long as I keep it in the Muslim sphere, I dont feel like I'm cheating...... And they ALL have wonderful, warm smiles.....

THIS is what we get from King Trump.......

3 hours ago, Suckrates said:

And NOW, a moment for a Hassan Piker palate cleanser !

Now this is a perfect illustration of the difference between me and my beloved and and always younger and more beautiful Sister In Cock.

In her own words, she wants COCK. In my own words, I want DATA. It goes without saying who has better priorities. My bad! 🙃

I rewatched that Rich Baris video I posted above. He said something I didn't focus on in my first listen. First, both sides tend to cherry pick the polling data that fits best with what they hope will happen. Definitely true. Second, right now Republicans are saying that this is a typical late Summer lull. But Republicans think they will come roaring back like usual as the election draws near. Maybe they'll even keep the House!

Baris said that is untrue, and wishful thinking. He said the usual trend is that the party out of power usually picks up more steam as the election gets closer. So, if anything, the current D +6.6 generic vote understates how well Democrats will do.

So I wondered, is that actually true? Sorry, Sis. It's not COCK. I'm no Zohran. Just a washed up old hooker here. ☹️ But the data is interesting.

My own conclusion is that the D +6.6 margin right now is likely to be about where we end, if history is a guide. If anything, the poll data right now might be more accurate than the final poll average. Particularly if the poll data suggests the Democratic wave just keeps building. Either way, with a lead this big, Democrats are likely to win some double digit number of House seats and take control of the House. But I'm sure the cruelty clown will be ready to bludgeon me for being an aging male escort if I am wrong.

If I used AI I could do a fancy table. But what I will do to be extra boring is just go midterm by midterm back to 2002, using RCP polling data, and show 1) Sept. 13 poll average for generic Congressional vote, 2) final poll average, 3) actual results, 4) actual change in House seats.

To summarize, I think the data is clear. The trend, and polling, is always right. The party out of power always wins since 2002. 2002 was the last year the party in power gained House seats, as polls showed they would. The polls reflect which party will win, almost 100 % accurately. And while not totally accurate, the size of the lead generally does reflect the size of the electoral victory for the out party. A bigger lead in generic polls means you actually win more House seats in the end. Baris is not necessarily right that Democrats should assume a wave will continue to grow between now and Election Day. Or that we should believe it, if it happens.

2022

Sept 13 polling average: D +0.5

Final polling average: R +2.5

Actual result: R + 2.8

Actual change: R + 9 House seat, House flips

Note: This is the year Baris refers to specifically regarding a surge in the last few months. And he is right, as you can see. There was a Republican (outparty) surge. That said, most of the year the Republicans were maybe 2-4 points ahead in the generic polls. September 2022 was a brief respite where Democrats seemed to even the score. So I would argue that the basic yearlong trend prevailed, And the polling for most of 2022 reflected it. It was a modestly good year for the Republicans, the party out of power.

2018

Sept 13 polling average: D + 8.3

Final polling average: D + 7.3

Actual result: D + 8.4

Actual change: D + 41 seats, House flips

Note: The main difference between now and and 2018, which has been discussed a lot, is that Democrats have a much weaker brand now than in 2018. I personally have no hope that Dems will pick up anything near 41 seats for this reason.

2014

Sept. 13 polling average: R + 3.9

Final polling: R +2.4

Actual result: R +5.7

Actual change: R + 13 seats

Note: Again, Baris has a point. Especially if you look at the last two times Republicans were the outparty. In 2014 and 2022, they won the generic vote by a bit more than predicted. Neither were wave years. They gained 9 to 13 seats. Wave years are the ones that seem more likely to overstate the size of the wave. And even though in 2018 Democrats did a tad better than the generic polls suggested, that did not transfer to the US Senate, where Democrats lost seats in red states. Another reason NOT to assume we can sit back and wait for a Democratic wave. That said, if in 2026 Democrats have Senate pick ups in red states - like Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa - that would be a sign of a bigger shift.

2010

Sept. 13 polling average: R + 7.8

Final polling average: R + 9.4

Actual result: R +6.8

Actual change: R +63, Obama "shellacking", House flips

2006

Sept. 13 polling average: D +6.5

Final polling average: D + 11.5

Actual result: D + 7.9

Actual change: D + 31, House flips

Note: In both 2006 and 2010, there was a wave election surge toward the party out of power between September and Election Day. So, again, Baris is kind of right that things could look even better for Democrats in a few months. That said, in both cases the actual result was less than the final polling average predicted. In both cases the actual result was closer to the Sept. polling. And, in both cases, it was still a huge wave for the party out of power that flipped control of the House. At a 6.6 % lead as of today, this looks the most like 2018, 2010, and 2006. If we use that as a base, the party out of power gained anywhere from 31 to 63 seats.

2002

Sept. 13 polling average: R + 2

Final polling average: R +1.7

Actual result: R +4.6

Actual change: R + 8 House seats

Note: This is the last time, and one of the few times, the party in power won the midterms. The last time before that was 1998, when Democrats gained 5 seats. I'm not sure when the time before that was. Maybe 1934. I only checked to 1958.

The reason I went that far back is this chart about Trust In US Government. There are only two times since 1958 that the party in power slightly expanded their House majority during midterms: 1998, and 2002. Not coincidentally, those are one of the few times trust in government exceeded 50 % (under W. after 9/11, briefly), or at least was rising toward 50 % (under Clinton, the bull market, the late 90s budget surplus). The Iraq War and financial crisis tore that to shit. And we ain't come close to recovering yet. So this time it is Democrats turn to win, it seems. But the basic problem - trust in government - basically gets worse. Trump promised to break the glass. And even the glass breaker can't be trusted. Other than to break promises, get richer, get meaner and stupider, and grift for his family. So there is no reason to think voters will reward Trump and his party for that.

I'll throw this clip in as well, so the Sadism Clown has more targets to hate and attack if all this is wrong. The cruelty clown might describe Mark Halperin as a 61 year old washed up journalist and sexual predator. The cruelty clown might describe Charlie Cook as a washed up 72 year old political analyst. I'd simply call them two of the best students of US politics around.

3 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

Now this is a perfect illustration of the difference between me and my beloved and and always younger and more beautiful Sister In Cock.

In her own words, she wants COCK. In my own words, I want DATA. It goes without saying who has better priorities. My bad! 🙃

I rewatched that Rich Baris video I posted above. He said something I didn't focus on in my first listen. First, both sides tend to cherry pick the polling data that fits best with what they hope will happen. Definitely true. Second, right now Republicans are saying that this is a typical late Summer lull. But Republicans think they will come roaring back like usual as the election draws near. Maybe they'll even keep the House!

Baris said that is untrue, and wishful thinking. He said the usual trend is that the party out of power usually picks up more steam as the election gets closer. So, if anything, the current D +6.6 generic vote understates how well Democrats will do.

So I wondered, is that actually true? Sorry, Sis. It's not COCK. I'm no Zohran. Just a washed up old hooker here. ☹️ But the data is interesting.

My own conclusion is that the D +6.6 margin right now is likely to be about where we end, if history is a guide. If anything, the poll data right now might be more accurate than the final poll average. Particularly if the poll data suggests the Democratic wave just keeps building. Either way, with a lead this big, Democrats are likely to win some double digit number of House seats and take control of the House. But I'm sure the cruelty clown will be ready to bludgeon me for being an aging male escort if I am wrong.

If I used AI I could do a fancy table. But what I will do to be extra boring is just go midterm by midterm back to 2002, using RCP polling data, and show 1) Sept. 13 poll average for generic Congressional vote, 2) final poll average, 3) actual results, 4) actual change in House seats.

To summarize, I think the data is clear. The trend, and polling, is always right. The party out of power always wins since 2002. 2002 was the last year the party in power gained House seats, as polls showed they would. The polls reflect which party will win, almost 100 % accurately. And while not totally accurate, the size of the lead generally does reflect the size of the electoral victory for the out party. A bigger lead in generic polls means you actually win more House seats in the end. Baris is not necessarily right that Democrats should assume a wave will continue to grow between now and Election Day. Or that we should believe it, if it happens.

2022

Sept 13 polling average: D +0.5

Final polling average: R +2.5

Actual result: R + 2.8

Actual change: R + 9 House seat, House flips

Note: This is the year Baris refers to specifically regarding a surge in the last few months. And he is right, as you can see. There was a Republican (outparty) surge. That said, most of the year the Republicans were maybe 2-4 points ahead in the generic polls. September 2022 was a brief respite where Democrats seemed to even the score. So I would argue that the basic yearlong trend prevailed, And the polling for most of 2022 reflected it. It was a modestly good year for the Republicans, the party out of power.

2018

Sept 13 polling average: D + 8.3

Final polling average: D + 7.3

Actual result: D + 8.4

Actual change: D + 41 seats, House flips

Note: The main difference between now and and 2018, which has been discussed a lot, is that Democrats have a much weaker brand now than in 2018. I personally have no hope that Dems will pick up anything near 41 seats for this reason.

2014

Sept. 13 polling average: R + 3.9

Final polling: R +2.4

Actual result: R +5.7

Actual change: R + 13 seats

Note: Again, Baris has a point. Especially if you look at the last two times Republicans were the outparty. In 2014 and 2022, they won the generic vote by a bit more than predicted. Neither were wave years. They gained 9 to 13 seats. Wave years are the ones that seem more likely to overstate the size of the wave. And even though in 2018 Democrats did a tad better than the generic polls suggested, that did not transfer to the US Senate, where Democrats lost seats in red states. Another reason NOT to assume we can sit back and wait for a Democratic wave. That said, if in 2026 Democrats have Senate pick ups in red states - like Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa - that would be a sign of a bigger shift.

2010

Sept. 13 polling average: R + 7.8

Final polling average: R + 9.4

Actual result: R +6.8

Actual change: R +63, Obama "shellacking", House flips

2006

Sept. 13 polling average: D +6.5

Final polling average: D + 11.5

Actual result: D + 7.9

Actual change: D + 31, House flips

Note: In both 2006 and 2010, there was a wave election surge toward the party out of power between September and Election Day. So, again, Baris is kind of right that things could look even better for Democrats in a few months. That said, in both cases the actual result was less than the final polling average predicted. In both cases the actual result was closer to the Sept. polling. And, in both cases, it was still a huge wave for the party out of power that flipped control of the House. At a 6.6 % lead as of today, this looks the most like 2018, 2010, and 2006. If we use that as a base, the party out of power gained anywhere from 31 to 63 seats.

2002

Sept. 13 polling average: R + 2

Final polling average: R +1.7

Actual result: R +4.6

Actual change: R + 8 House seats

Note: This is the last time, and one of the few times, the party in power won the midterms. The last time before that was 1998, when Democrats gained 5 seats. I'm not sure when the time before that was. Maybe 1934. I only checked to 1958.

The reason I went that far back is this chart about Trust In US Government. There are only two times since 1958 that the party in power slightly expanded their House majority during midterms: 1998, and 2002. Not coincidentally, those are one of the few times trust in government exceeded 50 % (under W. after 9/11, briefly), or at least was rising toward 50 % (under Clinton, the bull market, the late 90s budget surplus). The Iraq War and financial crisis tore that to shit. And we ain't come close to recovering yet. So this time it is Democrats turn to win, it seems. But the basic problem - trust in government - basically gets worse. Trump promised to break the glass. And even the glass breaker can't be trusted. Other than to break promises, get richer, get meaner and stupider, and grift for his family. So there is no reason to think voters will reward Trump and his party for that.

I'll throw this clip in as well, so the Sadism Clown has more targets to hate and attack if all this is wrong. The cruelty clown might describe Mark Halperin as a 61 year old washed up journalist and sexual predator. The cruelty clown might describe Charlie Cook as a washed up 72 year old political analyst. I'd simply call them two of the best students of US politics around.

Sis, I am sensing that Kunt Klowns insensitive personal comments about you hit a nerve, or made you feel some kind of way ?

Shake it off !

Even at your advanced age, I am SURE you still turn the heads of admirers with onset cataracts ? And bottoms up, you always have "earning power".....

I prefer to focus on your intelligence, savvy perspective and commitment...... Those are all things that will never wither with age.....

And as soon as Trump dies and MAGA fades, Kunt Klown will be nothing more than a washed up right wing lunatic that licked shit out of Trumps ass.....and wasted his energy and life on a man who didnt give a fuck about HIM !

1 minute ago, Suckrates said:

Even at your advanced age, I am SURE you still turn the heads of admirers with onset cataracts ? And bottoms up, you always have "earning power".....

Why, that's the kindest thing I have ever heard, Sis. 🙄

And, yes, my ego is obviously quite fragile. So one little wisp of hate or insult from the Sadism Clown (I like your name for him, too, Sis) and I practically have a nervous breakdown.

9 minutes ago, Suckrates said:

I prefer to focus on your intelligence, savvy perspective and commitment...... Those are all things that will never wither with age.....

Thank you. And love. And kindness. Those never wither with age. Most people would argue social media has not been kind to love and kindness. Or community. And yet, here we are, Sis. We've always had that special bond.

And since we are focusing on my ego, if you don't mind I will go off. Of course, I always go off, anyway.

I went to buy a suit last night, for a wedding next weekend in the South of my oldest nephew's oldest daughter. It was really fun. The guy I had helping me was - first of all - a human being, not a robot or AI. I am never sure what to expect these days. But he was a sweetheart. It was fun throwing fashion options around.

Not that he gave me better fashion advice than YOU, Sis. But you are so hard to reach these days. What with all your time and saliva consuming public service with Zohran, and what not.

It's been a long time since I bought a new suit. So I was thinking about that moment at the start of my escort career when I bought a suit at a fashionable store in Paris for the first time, and I felt like I had really arrived. And I was thinking I would have looked much hotter in this new Summer suit back then. But what I love about what I do have now is the celebration of love and family I am about to walk into. In my nonprofit decades, someone, as a joke, left a Chinese fortune cookie on my inbox that said, "In youth and beauty, wisdom is rare." Lucky me. Now I get to explore the second half of that fortune.

What makes this wedding also fun in the context of my anti-MAGA ranting is that at least half the people I will be with, if not more, are hard core MAGA types. And I have spent enough time around them to know that I love them, and they love me. The bride's Mom does outdo RFK, Jr. when it comes to vaccine nonsense. In fact, her father-in-law, my Republican brother, at one point attacked her vaccine nonsense, because it offended him as a fact-based science guy. And I thought, "I'm a hit man. Not a diplomat. But this is where it is best to just keep my mouth shut." Which is what my nephew, a Romney Republican at heart, does a lot.

The bride's grandmother made it clear to me at one point that she thinks most Democrats are haters. She is a widow. After spending a lot of time together, the go-to line now is, "If I weren't Gay, I would marry her." And she keeps saying, "Too bad he's Gay." We get along great.

My point is I hope this will be the world after Trump. I did have a Reaganite Dad. So thanks to him more than anyone else loving and respecting people with political differences comes easy to me, I think. I do blame much of this on Trump. There is a certain political genius he has in knowing that you can only win by divide and conquer. So he stokes hate and lies and bullshit. And it worked for him. Barely. But twice.

As @lookin has pointed out repeatedly and correctly, it only works because in times of dislocation and pain many people are authoritarian followers who want an authoritarian asshole like Trump. Guys like Sadism Clown eat it up. He's a very special and uncommon type. I think it empowers his natural cruelty.

To say it in a theoretical way, the term used is "authoritarian aggression." It's one thing for the Sadism Clown to want to submit to Trump, or conservative (anti-LGBTQ) social norms. It's another to aggressively attack outsiders and minorities. Jews of course know this all too well. But it is why I think the Sadism Clown should be called out. The Genocide Jew actually is saying they killed tens of thousands of Palestinian kids because they had to. And, actually, blame it on Palestinians. Not us. That's authoritarian aggression for you. Causes way more real world tragedy than going after a 70 year old washed up hooker who isn't 70.

I was not hurt, or offended. I was, and am, amused. I really just wanted to underscore the fact that this is the kind of guy who will attack you for being 70 - if I were. And for being a successful retired male escort. If my clients were like him, I would never have had the fun romp I did.

Stated differently, I was very good at avoiding people like him. Who are actually rare, in my experience. They couldn't pay me to have sex with them.

That said, despite his cruelty, I'm sure he is - or at least was - quite the looker.

7 hours ago, stevenkesslar said:

Why, that's the kindest thing I have ever heard, Sis. 🙄

And, yes, my ego is obviously quite fragile. So one little wisp of hate or insult from the Sadism Clown (I like your name for him, too, Sis) and I practically have a nervous breakdown.

Thank you. And love. And kindness. Those never wither with age. Most people would argue social media has not been kind to love and kindness. Or community. And yet, here we are, Sis. We've always had that special bond.

And since we are focusing on my ego, if you don't mind I will go off. Of course, I always go off, anyway.

I went to buy a suit last night, for a wedding next weekend in the South of my oldest nephew's oldest daughter. It was really fun. The guy I had helping me was - first of all - a human being, not a robot or AI. I am never sure what to expect these days. But he was a sweetheart. It was fun throwing fashion options around.

Not that he gave me better fashion advice than YOU, Sis. But you are so hard to reach these days. What with all your time and saliva consuming public service with Zohran, and what not.

It's been a long time since I bought a new suit. So I was thinking about that moment at the start of my escort career when I bought a suit at a fashionable store in Paris for the first time, and I felt like I had really arrived. And I was thinking I would have looked much hotter in this new Summer suit back then. But what I love about what I do have now is the celebration of love and family I am about to walk into. In my nonprofit decades, someone, as a joke, left a Chinese fortune cookie on my inbox that said, "In youth and beauty, wisdom is rare." Lucky me. Now I get to explore the second half of that fortune.

What makes this wedding also fun in the context of my anti-MAGA ranting is that at least half the people I will be with, if not more, are hard core MAGA types. And I have spent enough time around them to know that I love them, and they love me. The bride's Mom does outdo RFK, Jr. when it comes to vaccine nonsense. In fact, her father-in-law, my Republican brother, at one point attacked her vaccine nonsense, because it offended him as a fact-based science guy. And I thought, "I'm a hit man. Not a diplomat. But this is where it is best to just keep my mouth shut." Which is what my nephew, a Romney Republican at heart, does a lot.

The bride's grandmother made it clear to me at one point that she thinks most Democrats are haters. She is a widow. After spending a lot of time together, the go-to line now is, "If I weren't Gay, I would marry her." And she keeps saying, "Too bad he's Gay." We get along great.

My point is I hope this will be the world after Trump. I did have a Reaganite Dad. So thanks to him more than anyone else loving and respecting people with political differences comes easy to me, I think. I do blame much of this on Trump. There is a certain political genius he has in knowing that you can only win by divide and conquer. So he stokes hate and lies and bullshit. And it worked for him. Barely. But twice.

As @lookin has pointed out repeatedly and correctly, it only works because in times of dislocation and pain many people are authoritarian followers who want an authoritarian asshole like Trump. Guys like Sadism Clown eat it up. He's a very special and uncommon type. I think it empowers his natural cruelty.

To say it in a theoretical way, the term used is "authoritarian aggression." It's one thing for the Sadism Clown to want to submit to Trump, or conservative (anti-LGBTQ) social norms. It's another to aggressively attack outsiders and minorities. Jews of course know this all too well. But it is why I think the Sadism Clown should be called out. The Genocide Jew actually is saying they killed tens of thousands of Palestinian kids because they had to. And, actually, blame it on Palestinians. Not us. That's authoritarian aggression for you. Causes way more real world tragedy than going after a 70 year old washed up hooker who isn't 70.

I was not hurt, or offended. I was, and am, amused. I really just wanted to underscore the fact that this is the kind of guy who will attack you for being 70 - if I were. And for being a successful retired male escort. If my clients were like him, I would never have had the fun romp I did.

Stated differently, I was very good at avoiding people like him. Who are actually rare, in my experience. They couldn't pay me to have sex with them.

That said, despite his cruelty, I'm sure he is - or at least was - quite the looker.

I think this rant has helped you work out the "disappointment" you feel in people ? It's truly sad that "we all cant just get along", but in the era of Trump, he doesnt want us to..... So we put up with the nonsense, the cruelty, the name calling and disrespect as "a sign of the times", but is it really, OR is it really the degradation of humanity in a Trump world ?

I am 75, and I may be washed up too, erections are more difficult to achieve, and gay porn is less alluring as my libido drops, but each day I strive to be authentic, and the best person I can be, kind to others, and that's ALL I can do...... There have always been haters, and there will always BE haters...... But as you have done, wallow for a bit and THEN, rise above the shit !

As a wise drag queen once told me....."Honey, dont ever let ANYONE steal your sparkle".........

5 hours ago, Suckrates said:

I think this rant has helped you work out the "disappointment" you feel in people ?

Yes, and no. I'd add a word: tolerance.

Now I'll add more rant.

If by "this rant" you mean this post, I should add this. I've always had a lot of nieces and nephews, and I have always been somewhat close to them. I say somewhat because for many years I was the cool Gay uncle jet setting around. And sometimes I took some of them with, to places like Italy or Paris or Hawaii. But for about 5 years it's been a project to spend more time with them and, now, their kids. It's the "uncle" equivalent of my siblings who want to spend time with their grandkids. One of whom is about to get married. So all these comments about politics fall into the context of family. And, yes, I can rant and say things here about my nephew's wife dumb anti-vaccine nonsense that I would never say in person. This specific brother and his kids and grandkids are pretty much the most Republican and MAGA or MAGA-adjacent extended family members, and live in a Southern red state.

So for me it's more about tolerance than disappointment. Even though some things are disappointing.

On the disappointment side, I had a long talk with my oldest brother last week who no one else really talks to much. And it was kind of sad and kind of funny. I think he voted for Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020, and maybe Trump in 2024. Like another Republican brother I am much closer to, he really only has bad things to say about Trump himself: narcissistic, megalomaniac. So this is a typical Republican thing I hear a lot: we don't like the man, but we like his policies. It's fair enough. You could say Bill Clinton was a predator, but we liked his policies. Right now the polls say there is a huge chunk of Americans who voted for "No More Forever Wars" Trump in 2024 who are now running away from Trump as fast as they can. Because of Iran. But this brother is the opposite. He hates Trump, but he loves his Iran war. He'd be happy if Trump nuked them. And some part of it is the "all Muslims are evil" thing. I stressed that Gay men have no love for extremist theocrats who hang Gay men in the streets. But "Nukes R Us" doesn't strike me as good policy. Polls show clearly the world is turning against America. Quickly. With cause.

This echoes in his son and a niece, both conservatives. There's a line that sums it up: "They all want to kill us." One niece, who is far and away the most ignorant Fox News/Gutfeld type, and who can't name the Republican House Speaker, said that. She was talking about foreigners. She speaks Spanish, and like me she loves Mexico. But her husband won't go there any more because it is ,,,,,,, well, Mexican. My response was, "They don't want to kill us. They want to BE us." Which is objectively true, I think. Way more people come to America as immigrants to build businesses and make us better than come here to fly airplanes into the World Trade Center. Include El Sayed and his Muslim parents on that list. Polls say public opinion is on my side. So I think it is just insane bullshit. We are literally committing national suicide. And the polls show it. But fast forward and at one point I asked my nephew, who has traveled all over the world as a consultant, what he thought while he was in front of this niece. And he said, "She's right. They want to kill us."

So there is this strong America First thing going on. Which is essentially a rejection of the "Beat The Nazis/Build NATO/Democratic Capitalist World Order" my Dad and their grandfather, a WW2 veteran, helped build and strongly believed in. My own theory is its kind of generational. The Greatest Generation, my Dad, built that order. His kids, the Boomers, may have rebelled against VietNam or Iraq. But we liked and respected the world order. We know what The Cold War was like. We are all for defending Ukraine against Russia. This next generation, and especially the Gen X'ers like this niece and nephew, seem to care less about it. They take American power for granted, I think. Gen X'ers are the strongest pro-Trump cohort. And at least in my own extended family they seem to echo his xenophobia and "they're just out to screw us, if not kill us" bullshit. If it were up to Trump and Gen X'ers, America might actually nuke Iran. And say, "Fuck Canada, and the rest of the world." Needless to say, my much more sensible Canadian sister-in-law is horrified. As am I.

So, yes. It is disappointing. Very disappointing. Back the the title of this thread, there is some part of me that just wants to say, "Shame on you!"

All that said, this is also an exercise in tolerance. Like I said, my Dad was a Reagan loving conservative. So I grew up in an environment that tolerated and even celebrated different political views. My line has always been my Dad and I didn't have the same politics. But we had the same values. Which, of course, I got from him. And from Paul Wellstone and lots of liberal Jews I've worked with, lol. "Tolerance" is definitely the theme with these red state, MAGA or MAGA-adjacent family members. They have strong families. They are kind people. They embrace me as the Gay in the family. And I embrace them. I'll add that one of my other nieces married a Black man and has a "Black" son, or a son who looks Black. When I am visiting and we all go out to eat sometimes my nephew and his wife bring their Black friend from down the street. Who is a professional who obviously prefers to live in an affluent, mostly White, but integrated suburban Southern neighborhood. So when they say "skin color doesn't matter" they are not being dishonest. They do view a lot of Democratic orthodoxy as woke bullshit. And sometimes I agree. "Latinx" is woke bullshit, for example. Most Mexicans think it is silly.

There's a line I really like from Michael Lewis, the author of the book The Big Short about the subprime lending fiasco. The film made of that book is one of my favorites. I squirmed in my seat because it so creatively captured all the greed and stupidity and pain of the Wall Street-built disaster. If something turned America on its head and made lots of people deeply cynical, THAT was what did it. Plus Iraq. So I would have guessed Michael Lewis had to be the biggest fucking cynic in the world. But he is the opposite. He's an optimist who likes people. And is curious about them. His line on Trump's America is that this will not last. Because "it doesn't rhyme with America," he said. He's a writer, so it was an interesting choice of words. But I believe he is right.

I think the Sadism Clown really does want a Civil War. And he wants Trump to win it, and crush anyone who disagrees. I think, based on many things he's written, he would be happy putting kids in Gaza in a concentration camp. It has been described as an open air concentration camp, anyway. The Sadism Clown would be happy deporting millions and millions and millions of immigrants. Including Dreamers, who know no country but America. And love it. But I don't think most Americans are that way. Polls show that. Like about Dreamers. And when I go to a red state and spend time with these more conservative MAGA-adjacent people I am describing, that is not what is in their heart. They don't want to be bigots or haters. They are mostly tolerant, or trying to be.

One niece, one of my sister's daughters, is the exception who I think proves the rule. She seems to go out of her way to be ignorant. Except for the most extreme and racist and xenophobic things she and her husband hear on the most extreme parts of Fox News. But, again, same old same old. Compared to when she was a child I babysat, a larger percentage of America is liberal, and fewer are conservatives. Her sister sent me a text photo last Fall of her and her daughter at a Kamala Harris rally. She was proud to bring her kid to her first political rally. She donates mostly to women candidates who focus on women's issues.

So I think Michael Lewis is mostly right. I think most Americans want to be better than we are right now in Trump's America. And I hope the midterms will show that. We'll see.

31 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:

Yes, and no. I'd add a word: tolerance.

Now I'll add more rant.

If by "this rant" you mean this post, I should add this. I've always had a lot of nieces and nephews, and I have always been somewhat close to them. I say somewhat because for many years I was the cool Gay uncle jet setting around. And sometimes I took some of them with, to places like Italy or Paris or Hawaii. But for about 5 years it's been a project to spend more time with them and, now, their kids. It's the "uncle" equivalent of my siblings who want to spend time with their grandkids. One of whom is about to get married. So all these comments about politics fall into the context of family. And, yes, I can rant and say things here about my nephew's wife dumb anti-vaccine nonsense that I would never say in person. This specific brother and his kids and grandkids are pretty much the most Republican and MAGA or MAGA-adjacent extended family members, and live in a Southern red state.

So for me it's more about tolerance than disappointment. Even though some things are disappointing.

On the disappointment side, I had a long talk with my oldest brother last week who no one else really talks to much. And it was kind of sad and kind of funny. I think he voted for Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020, and maybe Trump in 2024. Like another Republican brother I am much closer to, he really only has bad things to say about Trump himself: narcissistic, megalomaniac. So this is a typical Republican thing I hear a lot: we don't like the man, but we like his policies. It's fair enough. You could say Bill Clinton was a predator, but we liked his policies. Right now the polls say there is a huge chunk of Americans who voted for "No More Forever Wars" Trump in 2024 who are now running away from Trump as fast as they can. Because of Iran. But this brother is the opposite. He hates Trump, but he loves his Iran war. He'd be happy if Trump nuked them. And some part of it is the "all Muslims are evil" thing. I stressed that Gay men have no love for extremist theocrats who hang Gay men in the streets. But "Nukes R Us" doesn't strike me as good policy. Polls show clearly the world is turning against America. Quickly. With cause.

This echoes in his son and a niece, both conservatives. There's a line that sums it up: "They all want to kill us." One niece, who is far and away the most ignorant Fox News/Gutfeld type, and who can't name the Republican House Speaker, said that. She was talking about foreigners. She speaks Spanish, and like me she loves Mexico. But her husband won't go there any more because it is ,,,,,,, well, Mexican. My response was, "They don't want to kill us. They want to BE us." Which is objectively true, I think. Way more people come to America as immigrants to build businesses and make us better than come here to fly airplanes into the World Trade Center. Include El Sayed and his Muslim parents on that list. Polls say public opinion is on my side. So I think it is just insane bullshit. We are literally committing national suicide. And the polls show it. But fast forward and at one point I asked my nephew, who has traveled all over the world as a consultant, what he thought while he was in front of this niece. And he said, "She's right. They want to kill us."

So there is this strong America First thing going on. Which is essentially a rejection of the "Beat The Nazis/Build NATO/Democratic Capitalist World Order" my Dad and their grandfather, a WW2 veteran, helped build and strongly believed in. My own theory is its kind of generational. The Greatest Generation, my Dad, built that order. His kids, the Boomers, may have rebelled against VietNam or Iraq. But we liked and respected the world order. We know what The Cold War was like. We are all for defending Ukraine against Russia. This next generation, and especially the Gen X'ers like this niece and nephew, seem to care less about it. They take American power for granted, I think. Gen X'ers are the strongest pro-Trump cohort. And at least in my own extended family they seem to echo his xenophobia and "they're just out to screw us, if not kill us" bullshit. If it were up to Trump and Gen X'ers, America might actually nuke Iran. And say, "Fuck Canada, and the rest of the world." Needless to say, my much more sensible Canadian sister-in-law is horrified. As am I.

So, yes. It is disappointing. Very disappointing. Back the the title of this thread, there is some part of me that just wants to say, "Shame on you!"

All that said, this is also an exercise in tolerance. Like I said, my Dad was a Reagan loving conservative. So I grew up in an environment that tolerated and even celebrated different political views. My line has always been my Dad and I didn't have the same politics. But we had the same values. Which, of course, I got from him. And from Paul Wellstone and lots of liberal Jews I've worked with, lol. "Tolerance" is definitely the theme with these red state, MAGA or MAGA-adjacent family members. They have strong families. They are kind people. They embrace me as the Gay in the family. And I embrace them. I'll add that one of my other nieces married a Black man and has a "Black" son, or a son who looks Black. When I am visiting and we all go out to eat sometimes my nephew and his wife bring their Black friend from down the street. Who is a professional who obviously prefers to live in an affluent, mostly White, but integrated suburban Southern neighborhood. So when they say "skin color doesn't matter" they are not being dishonest. They do view a lot of Democratic orthodoxy as woke bullshit. And sometimes I agree. "Latinx" is woke bullshit, for example. Most Mexicans think it is silly.

There's a line I really like from Michael Lewis, the author of the book The Big Short about the subprime lending fiasco. The film made of that book is one of my favorites. I squirmed in my seat because it so creatively captured all the greed and stupidity and pain of the Wall Street-built disaster. If something turned America on its head and made lots of people deeply cynical, THAT was what did it. Plus Iraq. So I would have guessed Michael Lewis had to be the biggest fucking cynic in the world. But he is the opposite. He's an optimist who likes people. And is curious about them. His line on Trump's America is that this will not last. Because "it doesn't rhyme with America," he said. He's a writer, so it was an interesting choice of words. But I believe he is right.

I think the Sadism Clown really does want a Civil War. And he wants Trump to win it, and crush anyone who disagrees. I think, based on many things he's written, he would be happy putting kids in Gaza in a concentration camp. It has been described as an open air concentration camp, anyway. The Sadism Clown would be happy deporting millions and millions and millions of immigrants. Including Dreamers, who know no country but America. And love it. But I don't think most Americans are that way. Polls show that. Like about Dreamers. And when I go to a red state and spend time with these more conservative MAGA-adjacent people I am describing, that is not what is in their heart. They don't want to be bigots or haters. They are mostly tolerant, or trying to be.

One niece, one of my sister's daughters, is the exception who I think proves the rule. She seems to go out of her way to be ignorant. Except for the most extreme and racist and xenophobic things she and her husband hear on the most extreme parts of Fox News. But, again, same old same old. Compared to when she was a child I babysat, a larger percentage of America is liberal, and fewer are conservatives. Her sister sent me a text photo last Fall of her and her daughter at a Kamala Harris rally. She was proud to bring her kid to her first political rally. She donates mostly to women candidates who focus on women's issues.

So I think Michael Lewis is mostly right. I think most Americans want to be better than we are right now in Trump's America. And I hope the midterms will show that. We'll see.

Gen-Xers came of age during the Reagan revolution. For many this supply-side neo-conservative hellscape we've been living in for the last 40 years is all they know. The direct attacks by the American right-wing on the middle-class, working-class and farmers is assumed to be the only economics there are.

Enjoy your wedding. It's hot and humid still in the south, I hope your summer suit breathes.

On 9/13/2026 at 9:23 AM, Suckrates said:

And NOW, a moment for a Hassan Piker palate cleanser !

Piker has lived in WEHO longtime. Staying fit avoids risk of all the harrumphs one might hear from the gay cats when you let your body go.

There's a fun video on YouTube of Piker and his gay buddy at WEHO Pride. They played a game asking various queens who, between Piker and his buddy, was dressed more gay, even though Piker wore a tank top and stylish sunglasses. Piker lost each time and he was a little perturbed, bless his heart. ❤️

1 hour ago, stevenkesslar said:

Yes, and no. I'd add a word: tolerance.

Now I'll add more rant.

If by "this rant" you mean this post, I should add this. I've always had a lot of nieces and nephews, and I have always been somewhat close to them. I say somewhat because for many years I was the cool Gay uncle jet setting around. And sometimes I took some of them with, to places like Italy or Paris or Hawaii. But for about 5 years it's been a project to spend more time with them and, now, their kids. It's the "uncle" equivalent of my siblings who want to spend time with their grandkids. One of whom is about to get married. So all these comments about politics fall into the context of family. And, yes, I can rant and say things here about my nephew's wife dumb anti-vaccine nonsense that I would never say in person. This specific brother and his kids and grandkids are pretty much the most Republican and MAGA or MAGA-adjacent extended family members, and live in a Southern red state.

So for me it's more about tolerance than disappointment. Even though some things are disappointing.

On the disappointment side, I had a long talk with my oldest brother last week who no one else really talks to much. And it was kind of sad and kind of funny. I think he voted for Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020, and maybe Trump in 2024. Like another Republican brother I am much closer to, he really only has bad things to say about Trump himself: narcissistic, megalomaniac. So this is a typical Republican thing I hear a lot: we don't like the man, but we like his policies. It's fair enough. You could say Bill Clinton was a predator, but we liked his policies. Right now the polls say there is a huge chunk of Americans who voted for "No More Forever Wars" Trump in 2024 who are now running away from Trump as fast as they can. Because of Iran. But this brother is the opposite. He hates Trump, but he loves his Iran war. He'd be happy if Trump nuked them. And some part of it is the "all Muslims are evil" thing. I stressed that Gay men have no love for extremist theocrats who hang Gay men in the streets. But "Nukes R Us" doesn't strike me as good policy. Polls show clearly the world is turning against America. Quickly. With cause.

This echoes in his son and a niece, both conservatives. There's a line that sums it up: "They all want to kill us." One niece, who is far and away the most ignorant Fox News/Gutfeld type, and who can't name the Republican House Speaker, said that. She was talking about foreigners. She speaks Spanish, and like me she loves Mexico. But her husband won't go there any more because it is ,,,,,,, well, Mexican. My response was, "They don't want to kill us. They want to BE us." Which is objectively true, I think. Way more people come to America as immigrants to build businesses and make us better than come here to fly airplanes into the World Trade Center. Include El Sayed and his Muslim parents on that list. Polls say public opinion is on my side. So I think it is just insane bullshit. We are literally committing national suicide. And the polls show it. But fast forward and at one point I asked my nephew, who has traveled all over the world as a consultant, what he thought while he was in front of this niece. And he said, "She's right. They want to kill us."

So there is this strong America First thing going on. Which is essentially a rejection of the "Beat The Nazis/Build NATO/Democratic Capitalist World Order" my Dad and their grandfather, a WW2 veteran, helped build and strongly believed in. My own theory is its kind of generational. The Greatest Generation, my Dad, built that order. His kids, the Boomers, may have rebelled against VietNam or Iraq. But we liked and respected the world order. We know what The Cold War was like. We are all for defending Ukraine against Russia. This next generation, and especially the Gen X'ers like this niece and nephew, seem to care less about it. They take American power for granted, I think. Gen X'ers are the strongest pro-Trump cohort. And at least in my own extended family they seem to echo his xenophobia and "they're just out to screw us, if not kill us" bullshit. If it were up to Trump and Gen X'ers, America might actually nuke Iran. And say, "Fuck Canada, and the rest of the world." Needless to say, my much more sensible Canadian sister-in-law is horrified. As am I.

So, yes. It is disappointing. Very disappointing. Back the the title of this thread, there is some part of me that just wants to say, "Shame on you!"

All that said, this is also an exercise in tolerance. Like I said, my Dad was a Reagan loving conservative. So I grew up in an environment that tolerated and even celebrated different political views. My line has always been my Dad and I didn't have the same politics. But we had the same values. Which, of course, I got from him. And from Paul Wellstone and lots of liberal Jews I've worked with, lol. "Tolerance" is definitely the theme with these red state, MAGA or MAGA-adjacent family members. They have strong families. They are kind people. They embrace me as the Gay in the family. And I embrace them. I'll add that one of my other nieces married a Black man and has a "Black" son, or a son who looks Black. When I am visiting and we all go out to eat sometimes my nephew and his wife bring their Black friend from down the street. Who is a professional who obviously prefers to live in an affluent, mostly White, but integrated suburban Southern neighborhood. So when they say "skin color doesn't matter" they are not being dishonest. They do view a lot of Democratic orthodoxy as woke bullshit. And sometimes I agree. "Latinx" is woke bullshit, for example. Most Mexicans think it is silly.

There's a line I really like from Michael Lewis, the author of the book The Big Short about the subprime lending fiasco. The film made of that book is one of my favorites. I squirmed in my seat because it so creatively captured all the greed and stupidity and pain of the Wall Street-built disaster. If something turned America on its head and made lots of people deeply cynical, THAT was what did it. Plus Iraq. So I would have guessed Michael Lewis had to be the biggest fucking cynic in the world. But he is the opposite. He's an optimist who likes people. And is curious about them. His line on Trump's America is that this will not last. Because "it doesn't rhyme with America," he said. He's a writer, so it was an interesting choice of words. But I believe he is right.

I think the Sadism Clown really does want a Civil War. And he wants Trump to win it, and crush anyone who disagrees. I think, based on many things he's written, he would be happy putting kids in Gaza in a concentration camp. It has been described as an open air concentration camp, anyway. The Sadism Clown would be happy deporting millions and millions and millions of immigrants. Including Dreamers, who know no country but America. And love it. But I don't think most Americans are that way. Polls show that. Like about Dreamers. And when I go to a red state and spend time with these more conservative MAGA-adjacent people I am describing, that is not what is in their heart. They don't want to be bigots or haters. They are mostly tolerant, or trying to be.

One niece, one of my sister's daughters, is the exception who I think proves the rule. She seems to go out of her way to be ignorant. Except for the most extreme and racist and xenophobic things she and her husband hear on the most extreme parts of Fox News. But, again, same old same old. Compared to when she was a child I babysat, a larger percentage of America is liberal, and fewer are conservatives. Her sister sent me a text photo last Fall of her and her daughter at a Kamala Harris rally. She was proud to bring her kid to her first political rally. She donates mostly to women candidates who focus on women's issues.

So I think Michael Lewis is mostly right. I think most Americans want to be better than we are right now in Trump's America. And I hope the midterms will show that. We'll see.

I'm sorry Sis, but tolerance, as you lay it out may NOT be such a good thing, for it is Tolerance of Trump that has led us to this point..... Little by little his crazy shit and harmful acts became "normal", and just another day of Trump. Him knocking down this and that, and building grotesque golden garbage, putting his face and name everywhere is now NORMAL, and just Trump doing Trump, so we tolerate it..... The voters may verbalize discontent, but lets see what they do in the mids...... In the meantime everyone is letting Trump do EVERYTHING, because of Tolerance...... At this point, I have NO patience for tolerance..... I want to really fuck some shit and some people up !

The Germans "tolerated" Hitler, to the near extinction of Jews...... And now in a different fashion, Trump is pulling the same "Nazi" shit with minorities..... Will we TOLERATE it ? Some will and are..... but those are mainly lost broken souls who sold themselves to Trump for him to FIX them..... they cant be FIXED ! And Trump is NOT a fixer. History shows he is a DESTROYER..... Resistance requires us to abandon TOLERANCE now......