War in Ukraine Developments

[floridarob]

Ah, the greatest hits of Kremlin spin. Sure, Russia is so strong that it can’t even build a new car without Chinese parts, its tech sector is crippled, and its middle class is vanishing. You brag about ‘buying through Turkey and the UAE’ like that’s a sign of strength instead of desperation.

As for GDP — maybe read beyond the headlines. Russia’s so-called ‘growth’ is just war spending and inflated state budgets, not real innovation or prosperity. Meanwhile ordinary Russians face skyrocketing prices, a brain drain of talent, and a future tied to smuggling routes.

And that debt number? Worthless when your currency is volatile, your reserves are frozen abroad, and your economy is propped up by oil discounts to China and India. You don’t prove sanctions failed — you just prove Russia is surviving like a black-market economy, not succeeding.

[Mavica]

Quote

" ... thank you for reminding me my youth when I travelled length of Soviet Union ..."

Aside from the perpetuation of the terror the Russian leadership has engaged in, in the Ukraine ... I have an affinity for the Russian people.  I previously had the opportunity to travel in Russia (40+ years ago, in the 1980s) and just prior to its indefensible attacks on the people of the Ukraine I'd been in the final planning stage of extended rail travel from London to Beijing crossing Russia on the Trans-Siberian Railway - with stops along the way.  

[vinapu]

1 hour ago, Mavica said:

... I have an affinity for the Russian people. 

People and culture is great, it's state which is senselessly oppressive and at the same time secretive holding prosperity back.  The same can be said about few Middle Eastern nations  as well ,  Iran, Egypt and Saudi Arabia are coming to mind

[PeterRS]

28 minutes ago, vinapu said:

People and culture is great

I entirely agree. Like @Mavica I visited Moscow and Leningrad three times near the end of the Soviet era when everything was so depressing. Supermarket shelves almost empty. The buffet lunch at the Ukraine Hotel with very little to choose. On my second Moscow visit coming out of the Cosmos hotel I was met by a group of teenagers all wanting the buy the rather old jeans I was wearing. At least they were smiling whereas it seemed most people never did.

10 and 12 years ago I once again visited St. Petersburg and Moscow. The difference was night and day. Apart from the glorious culture and architecture, my friend and I were met with much kindness. The hotel staff could not have been more pleasant, one even giving us tips of places to visit that are not in most guide books. My hair was pretty gray by then and I remember on the train en route to see Catherine's stunning Palace, two University students even got up to give us their seats. In all my years in Bangkok with now even grayer hair, that has happened just once on the Skytrain or subway.

[Moses]

4 hours ago, floridarob said:

And that debt number? Worthless when your currency is volatile

Did you meant "strong"?

"Russian ruble: The curious case of the world’s best-performing currency this year"

"Ruble is Top Performing Currency outpacing Gold" https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-15/ruble-surges-as-best-performing-global-currency-outpacing-gold
 

I got +35% via currency trade in 6 months.

 

I wrote here back in 2022 that Biden's decision to ban Russia from paying in dollars was the stupidest decision of the century: it is impossible to push Russia out of world trade due to its high share in many markets.

Therefore, when sanctions were introduced, Russia simply began to trade in rubles, and this strengthened the ruble. All, what Biden's administration got from this ban - lost control on Russian payments.

Just 3 months after Biden boasted that the rate was 200 rubles per dollar, the ruble strengthened 3 times and became 60 rubles per dollar.

Reader wrote just six months ago that the ruble collapsed again and became 120:1, and now it is 80:1.

Volatility is not a problem, but an opportunity to earn. A lot of money.

Meanwhile share of US $ in SWIFT payments dropped from 59.3% in 2021 to 49.1% in August 2024.

[floridarob]

 

Congrats on bragging about making 35% trading rubles — the same currency that only swings because it’s propped up by artificial capital controls, oil sales to China at a discount, and the Kremlin banning Russians from moving their own money freely. That’s not a ‘world-class’ currency, that’s a casino chip in Putin’s house.....

Yes, the ruble bounces — because it’s volatile and manipulated. Real investors don’t call that stability, they call it risk. You can’t buy credibility with capital controls.

Don't  pretend the U.S. ‘lost control.’ The dollar is still used in almost 90% of all global forex trades and is the reserve currency of the world. The ruble? Barely a rounding error outside of Russia’s forced trade partners, including SWIFT transfers 🥺

You can dress it up all you want, but a currency that needs constant rescue, bans on outflows, and black-market channels isn’t ‘strong’ — it’s on life support. You’re mistaking Putin’s desperation moves for economic genius, which is why this sounds less like analysis and more like comrade propaganda 🤷‍♂️

[Moses]

2 hours ago, floridarob said:

That’s not a ‘world-class’ currency, that’s a casino chip in Putin’s house.....

Since at any moment it can be exchanged to crypto or any other currency, there is no difference.

 

2 hours ago, floridarob said:

Don't  pretend the U.S. ‘lost control.’ The dollar is still used in almost 90% of all global forex trades and is the reserve currency of the world.

You still not got?

I didn't wrote what US lost global control. I wrote: because of stupidest Biden's decision US lost control on Russian trade: now whole trade is going by alternate channels and US doesn't see where and what Russia buys and sell. Instead of almost total transparency at past, when 95% of trade went via US banks, US now is blind. And that is one of the main reasons why sanctions don't work.

[PeterRS]

17 minutes ago, Moses said:

that is one of the main reasons why sanctions don't work.

There is a whole host of reasons why sanctions don't work. When I was in Iran, despite sanctions there were cans of Coca Cola everywhere and bottles of Heinz tomato ketchup freely available. Korean cars were everywhere. I could go on, but the point is I was informed that many of the consumer goods had come in from Malaysia via Dubai. Here in Bangkok there are branches of many Myanmar companies solely to get round the sanctions on these same companies' head offices based in Myanmar.

Several major counties have banned the sale of arms to Myanmar.  Russia freely sells arms to successive juntas which have committed horrendous atrocities on its people over decades. Through the Russian State Atomic Energy Company, Russia signed a nuclear pact with Myanmar in July 2023, ostensibly to build reactors but no one knows the real reason. In January, a member of the Japanese yakuza pleaded guilty to attempting to steal weapons grade plutonium and other nuclear materials from Myanmar for sale to Iran. Although the amounts were small, could they have originated in Russia?

China sells arms to the military junta but also to the rebel militias. More than most countries it has an interest in seeing an outcome of the civil war favourable to itself. The last thing it wants is a western-style democracy beholden to America on its border. Not that that is likely to happen given the USA's persistent lack of interest in helping any group in Myanmar. The BURMA Act that provided for aid to the rebel militias saiied through the divided Congress in April 2022. In the Senate, Republican members repeatedly complained about its cost and it was rejected by the Foreign Affairs Sub-Committee. It then died. Trump's actions have een worse.

So governments know perfectly well that santions are not only a relatively ineffective economic tool, they can not infrequently have unintended negative consequences.

[Moses]

7 minutes ago, PeterRS said:

So governments know perfectly well that santions are not only a relatively ineffective economic tool, they can not infrequently have unintended negative consequences.

Sure. Like recession in Germany.

And in 2022 I wrote, what with sanctions EU will shoot own legs.

[floridarob]

Sure, you can swap rubles for crypto, but that doesn’t make the ruble any more stable or reliable. It’s like trying to fix a leaky boat with a cup of water — technically possible, but it doesn’t change the bigger problem.... and I'm not talking about balcony safety.

[Moses]

2 hours ago, floridarob said:

Sure, you can swap rubles for crypto

Dear, I can swap ruble to any currency. In bank apps or in exchange stall. Here is no limits on exchange. The only limit is to bring cash over border above $10,000, but why I need cash when I have bank cards?

P.S. And before you will start to talk about VISA and MasterCard sanctions...

A lot of countries are happy to open bank accounts and issue cards for Russians. I got bank card without visiting China and even without leaving home, just ordered it via app in one of Russian banks for a small fee ($30). Proof: photo of card with this thread in background

 

P.P.S. (just trolling) Oh, I forgot about one more limit: as private person, I can't transfer abroad more than USD 1 million per month without obtaining in advance special permission from Central Bank (I must fill form on website of State service and wait up to 24 hours).

[floridarob]

Bragging about a $30 workaround card from a backdoor bank isn’t the flex you think it is. That’s like saying your house is solid because you found a crack big enough to crawl through.

A truly strong economy doesn’t need back-alley fixes to keep money moving — the fact you do just proves the system is broken. And honestly, the fact you felt the need to post ‘proof’ just makes it look like you’re trying to convince yourself more than anyone else 🤷‍♂️

P.P.S (not trolling) I’m genuinely curious — from your perspective, do you see any parallels between the political and economic tactics Trump has used in the U.S. and the way Russia is run? For example, in terms of executive power, media control, or handling dissent?
 

[Moses]

1 hour ago, floridarob said:

A truly strong economy doesn’t need back-alley fixes to keep money moving

Oh. That they say to you?

Fact: only 39 countries from about 200 support sanctions. So, when you think who is in isolation - think twice.

[vinapu]

1 hour ago, Moses said:

 

Fact: only 39 countries from about 200 support sanctions. So, when you think who is in isolation - think twice.

lets not over do it. Other then immediate neighbours nobody cares what  stand of any issue of countries like Belize, St Kitts and Nevis, San Marino, Togo, Timor Leste or Samoa is.

All countries are equal but  not all carry the same weight. If president of Gambia will call on Russia to end war in Ukraine immediately  will Russia care ? But if Modi will say the same it will be "ooo" factor across the world

[Moses]

7 hours ago, vinapu said:

All countries are equal but  not all carry the same weight. If president of Gambia will call on Russia to end war in Ukraine immediately  will Russia care ? But if Modi will say the same it will be "ooo" factor across the world

In UN 1 country = 1 vote

[Moses]

10 hours ago, floridarob said:

P.P.S (not trolling) I’m genuinely curious — from your perspective, do you see any parallels between the political and economic tactics Trump has used in the U.S. and the way Russia is run? For example, in terms of executive power, media control, or handling dissent?

I do not follow closely internal situation in US, sorry: no interest. But I told already some my impressions in general: US isn't real "democracy" - it is "clan gerontocracy" with strongest corporate influence, legalized bribing in form of lobbying, mess in law, and high crime. 

Also I wrote already: Trump is doing right things for state in economic in crisis - tariffs, stimulation of local manufacturing, cutting expenses and working with enormous national debt.

On geopolitical  scene Trump got 2 positive results very fast: Thai/Cambodian crisis and Azerbaijan/Armenia crisis. His participation in regulation of Israeli/Palestinian crisis isn't that successful (I think because of strong pro-Israeli lobby in US). 

[Moses]

The Russia/Ukraine conflict was initiated by attempts by Europe and US Democrats to remove Ukraine from Russia's influence. This began in the 2000s with external stimulation of nationalist ideas and sponsorship of nationalist parties, in the hope that Russia, given its weakness at the time, would not be able to keep Ukraine close to itself. There were 3 attempts - 2004, 2008, 2014.

The expectation was that under the pretext of "installing democracy" Ukraine would be drawn into NATO and the EU, thereby weakening Russia's strengthening as a global geopolitical player and the second military and nuclear power in the world.

Russia has repeatedly stated and warned that it will not tolerate NATO's eastward expansion threatening national security and contradicting national interests. Europe and US Democrats believed that they could cope and overestimated their ability to manage the situation without involving the world in a third world war or a nuclear conflict.

The Western-sponsored and encouraged coup in Ukraine in 2014 brought extreme nationalist forces to power and legalized Nazism. This was not accepted by the predominantly Russian population of eastern Ukraine and caused separatist movements and the formation of "republics" in eastern Ukraine.

The new Ukrainian regime tried to destroy these "republics" by military means, but encountered fierce resistance: local security forces - the military, police, and secret services - were on the side of the separatists. Then the Kiev regime began regular bombing and shelling of the rebel territories: the first bombing was carried out on June 2, 2014, on the capital of the Luhansk region (and the new "republic").

For almost 8 years, Russia tried to stop this carnage. There was the Minsk Agreement - 1, Minsk Agreement -2. All of them were only on paper and did not stop Ukraine from committing genocide against Russians. On the contrary, over these 8 years, the following were gradually banned in Ukraine: Russian as the second official language, Russian in newspapers, magazines and cinema, Russian-language schools, the Russian Orthodox Church.

And more than 16,000 Russians were killed.

The trigger for the hot conflict was the inclusion in the Ukrainian constitution of a declaration on joining NATO at the end of 2021, despite Russia's warnings. From that moment on, a military conflict became inevitable.

So world came to February 2022.

And let me remind you: Russia did NOT plan to seize Ukrainian territories all this time - the "republics" were not recognized by Russia. And even after the start of the military operation, Russia did not recognize them - until the collapse of peace talks in Istanbul in the spring of 2022.

Only when Ukraine interrupted peace talks in Istanbul, Russia recognized the "republics", referendums were held in the summer of 2022 and these territories were accepted into the Russian Federation. This happened six months after the start of the conflict and now Ukraine has no chance of getting these territories back.

But everything could have turned out differently, if not for the naive ideas of gerontocrats and European bureaucrats about the possibility of overpowering the second military machine and the second nuclear power in the world, if not for Boris Johnson's false promises to Zelensky that Ukraine would defeat Russia.

[Moses]

By the way, do you know which country is Russia's closest neighbor with a sea border?

USA. The distance between the closest territories of the Russian Federation and the USA is only 4 km (2.2 miles)

[vinapu]

7 hours ago, Moses said:

In UN 1 country = 1 vote

it's why  Security Council  and veto of permanent member was devised. Smaller countries have their say but ultimate decision making lies with biggies

[Moses]

Hackers got database of Ukrainian ministry of defense.

Ukraine lost in total 1,700,000+ of military personal - died or missed.

Samples of docs published by hackers:

  

[floridarob]

9 hours ago, Moses said:

and working with enormous national debt.

Yet he's increased it.... all cuts he's made of services for all, go to tax cuts/breaks for corporations and the super wealthy.

What’s striking is how much his style mirrored strongman politics elsewhere — centralizing power, undermining institutions, and demanding loyalty over competence. From the outside, does that feel familiar to you in Russia, or do you see them as very different kinds of leaders?

 

10 hours ago, Moses said:

I do not follow closely internal situation in US, sorry: no interest. But I told already some my impressions in general: US isn't real "democracy" - it is "clan gerontocracy" with strongest corporate influence, legalized bribing in form of lobbying, mess in law, and high crime. 

Also I wrote already: Trump is doing right things for state in economic in crisis - tariffs, stimulation of local manufacturing, cutting expenses and working with enormous national debt.

On geopolitical  scene Trump got 2 positive results very fast: Thai/Cambodian crisis and Azerbaijan/Armenia crisis. His participation in regulation of Israeli/Palestinian crisis isn't that successful (I think because of strong pro-Israeli lobby in US). 

 

[Moses]

1 hour ago, floridarob said:

What’s striking is how much his style mirrored strongman politics elsewhere — centralizing power, undermining institutions, and demanding loyalty over competence. From the outside, does that feel familiar to you in Russia, or do you see them as very different kinds of leaders?

I don't see Trump as a "strong leader" at all - he is acting like businessman...

[floridarob]

4 hours ago, Moses said:

I don't see Trump as a "strong leader" at all - he is acting like businessman...

A businessman, maybe — but one who bankrupted casinos, airlines, and even steaks. That’s not leadership, that’s mismanagement.

At least Putin doesn’t brag about bankrupting his own ventures the way Trump does — he just hides the corruption under the table. 😉

[PeterRS]

3 hours ago, floridarob said:

A businessman, maybe — but one who bankrupted casinos, airlines, and even steaks. That’s not leadership, that’s mismanagement.

Add to that bankrupting and closing a university he started up, the textbook of lies he told and has never fulfilled in order to build a golf course in Scotland north of Aberdeen, and a subject surely closer to @Moses heart, starting a hugely unsuccessful brand of vodka that quickly died after five years. Or at least died everywhere except, some internet sources suggest, in Israel where some is still sold! That's because it was kosher vodka for Passover! Only as the Jerusalem Post discovered, it has a non-kosher ingredient. When asked about this, the Trump Organisation refused to comment!

Given that the vodka was actually produced in the Netherlands, were it available today I presume it would be subject to sanctions! 

[vinapu]

14 hours ago, Moses said:

Hackers got database of Ukrainian ministry of defense.

Ukraine lost in total 1,700,000+ of military personal - died or missed.

 

if true, it means Russians killed them. Not sure it's right thing to brag about it if one is Russian