The war in Iran

[stevenkesslar]

8 minutes ago, vinapu said:

I'd remove both Korean and Gulf war from the list as they were response to blatant and real aggressions.

 

And I'd agree with @Moses on several of those.

VietNam was infamously disastrous for both VietNam and the US.  It was definitely a war of aggression.  Add to that the unproven theory that JFK wanting to get out of VietNam got him assassinated by the US military industrial complex/Texas oil hawks/etc.

Iraq was also infamously disastrous and a war of aggression that ended badly for America and the world.   How quickly we forget.

I opposed Gulf War I (Bush 41, not Bush 43) at the time.  That said, in retrospect it is a model of how to do war, if we choose to do it.  Kuwait was invaded.  That is a fact.  Just like Putin invaded Ukraine.  The Powell Doctrine famously limited the military objectives to limited ones, which the US achieved and then left.  

The verdict is out on Trump's War Of The Week. 

Venezuela seemingly achieved its limited objectives without opening a bloodbath.  In part because Trump did not try regime change.  What he is doing now in Iran is a whole different matter. 

My guess is it only gets worse for him.  Whatever rises from the ashes will probably be worse.  With much more reason to hate and kill Jews and Americans.

I remember a discussion with a Republican friend in the run up to Iraq.  Like most Democrats, I strongly opposed Bush 43's Iraq War.  A Republican friend of mine supported the idea, but argued Bush 43 would "fuck up" by putting boots on the ground.  He was sure right about that. 

I asked him what he thought the US should do if it didn't want to put boots on the ground.  He said, "That's easy.  Blow the shit out of them."   I asked, "What if what rises from the ashes is even worse?"   He said, "That's easy.  Blow the shit out of them again."

A true American, I guess.  Now we'll see how well that works for America.

[vinapu]

5 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:

 

  Now we'll see how well that works for America.

I'm more concerned of how well that works for Iran itself. I remember well how hated that American friend Shah was and 

how jubilant Iranians were he was gone. Perhaps too jubilant as it created ground for ayatollahs to rise and entrench. 

[stevenkesslar]

26 minutes ago, vinapu said:

I'm more concerned of how well that works for Iran itself.

I agree.  But I think the verdict is in.   It is working out badly for Iran.  The question is,  how bad?

This helps explain Trump's reaction when Putin invaded Ukraine.  Trump said, "This is genius".  At the time he was still in the dog house for his Jubilant Patriotic Cop Beating at the Capitol.  So he got a lot of push back.

I think we now know "genius" and "savvy" meant something like, "Gosh.  I wish I could do that."  And now Trump has.

So this is a different version of Ukraine.  I'm sure Putin and Trump both feel they have a long list of grievances, which we have all heard about.  But now the idea of restraint is completely gone.  The strong will just pick on the weak.  That is the new world order.  Putin started it.  Trump said, "Me too!"

I know my best case scenario. It goes something like this.  Which is wishful thinking, but at least conceivably plausible.

America is repulsed and rejects MAGA and America First in 2026 and 2028.  I am likely to vote for Gavin Newsom.  There are downsides of a California liberal.  But I think in 2028 I want a proven leader who has high approval in California (like Reagan did back in the day) and has governed one of the biggest, open, and forward looking economies in the world.  And is bending over backwards to show he wants to cooperate with the world, not fight it.

In a wishful thinking scenario if we wait a few years it is conceivable Iranian reformers could again gain the upper hand, like they have before.  Unlikely, but not out of the question.  If the timing works right and there is a different US President with a very different agenda, like who isn't itching to start wars, that could potentially lead to better outcomes for two exhausted countries.

One can hope.