The war in Iran

[stevenkesslar]

8 minutes ago, vinapu said:

I'd remove both Korean and Gulf war from the list as they were response to blatant and real aggressions.

 

And I'd agree with @Moses on several of those.

VietNam was infamously disastrous for both VietNam and the US.  It was definitely a war of aggression.  Add to that the unproven theory that JFK wanting to get out of VietNam got him assassinated by the US military industrial complex/Texas oil hawks/etc.

Iraq was also infamously disastrous and a war of aggression that ended badly for America and the world.   How quickly we forget.

I opposed Gulf War I (Bush 41, not Bush 43) at the time.  That said, in retrospect it is a model of how to do war, if we choose to do it.  Kuwait was invaded.  That is a fact.  Just like Putin invaded Ukraine.  The Powell Doctrine famously limited the military objectives to limited ones, which the US achieved and then left.  

The verdict is out on Trump's War Of The Week. 

Venezuela seemingly achieved its limited objectives without opening a bloodbath.  In part because Trump did not try regime change.  What he is doing now in Iran is a whole different matter. 

My guess is it only gets worse for him.  Whatever rises from the ashes will probably be worse.  With much more reason to hate and kill Jews and Americans.

I remember a discussion with a Republican friend in the run up to Iraq.  Like most Democrats, I strongly opposed Bush 43's Iraq War.  A Republican friend of mine supported the idea, but argued Bush 43 would "fuck up" by putting boots on the ground.  He was sure right about that. 

I asked him what he thought the US should do if it didn't want to put boots on the ground.  He said, "That's easy.  Blow the shit out of them."   I asked, "What if what rises from the ashes is even worse?"   He said, "That's easy.  Blow the shit out of them again."

A true American, I guess.  Now we'll see how well that works for America.

[vinapu]

5 minutes ago, stevenkesslar said:

 

  Now we'll see how well that works for America.

I'm more concerned of how well that works for Iran itself. I remember well how hated that American friend Shah was and 

how jubilant Iranians were he was gone. Perhaps too jubilant as it created ground for ayatollahs to rise and entrench. 

[stevenkesslar]

26 minutes ago, vinapu said:

I'm more concerned of how well that works for Iran itself.

I agree.  But I think the verdict is in.   It is working out badly for Iran.  The question is,  how bad?

This helps explain Trump's reaction when Putin invaded Ukraine.  Trump said, "This is genius".  At the time he was still in the dog house for his Jubilant Patriotic Cop Beating at the Capitol.  So he got a lot of push back.

I think we now know "genius" and "savvy" meant something like, "Gosh.  I wish I could do that."  And now Trump has.

So this is a different version of Ukraine.  I'm sure Putin and Trump both feel they have a long list of grievances, which we have all heard about.  But now the idea of restraint is completely gone.  The strong will just pick on the weak.  That is the new world order.  Putin started it.  Trump said, "Me too!"

I know my best case scenario. It goes something like this.  Which is wishful thinking, but at least conceivably plausible.

America is repulsed and rejects MAGA and America First in 2026 and 2028.  I am likely to vote for Gavin Newsom.  There are downsides of a California liberal.  But I think in 2028 I want a proven leader who has high approval in California (like Reagan did back in the day) and has governed one of the biggest, open, and forward looking economies in the world.  And is bending over backwards to show he wants to cooperate with the world, not fight it.

In a wishful thinking scenario if we wait a few years it is conceivable Iranian reformers could again gain the upper hand, like they have before.  Unlikely, but not out of the question.  If the timing works right and there is a different US President with a very different agenda, like who isn't itching to start wars, that could potentially lead to better outcomes for two exhausted countries.

One can hope.

[bucknaway]

[Stable Genius]

Could it be that Trump wants the USA to be is a state of war during the midterm elections so that he can use that state of war as an excuse to suppress dissent?

[vinapu]

24 minutes ago, Stable Genius said:

Could it be that Trump wants the USA to be is a state of war during the midterm elections so that he can use that state of war as an excuse to suppress dissent?

or gather people around the flag like Anutin did recently in Thailand

[bucknaway]

[Pete1111]

Persian secret police under the Shah tortured and murdered far fewer dissidents than under the Islamic Republic.  One might hope Iran can form a new government that does not eliminate political opposition through violent means.  But I wouldn't count on it.

One might hope their policy of executing gays, which began under the Islamic Republic will cease.  However, my sense is Persians are bitterly hostile towards gays and lesbians. 

My experience here in Southern California both in the workplace, in school and socially is they have a big problem with gays, and are some of the least likely people to become allies.  

That said, younger gay Persians are more empowered here in the States.  From that, some Persians have become less hostile, yet I still would not trust them to relearn what they've been taught and long believed in.

Personally, I would have misgivings making personal sacrifice for countries where people  would hang me from a crane or toss me from a rooftop.  

Yes, I know that's a narrow minded view.  It's probably one of the few points Bill Maher makes that doesn't bother me as much, how religions affect on the people is fucked.  When he points out how ridiculous Queers for Palestine seem, it almost goes without saying.

For now, are the woke queers busy crafting a position on Iran?

[stevenkesslar]

20 hours ago, Moses said:

The standards were settled by US far ago. As I wrote in another thread "Trump isn't first, Trump will be not last".

 

 

First, dear @Moses, I will say one thing in the defense of the US, and democracy. 

We have polls now saying that something like 60 % of Americans oppose what Trump is doing in Iran.  We have an election in a matter of months.  So this probably seals the deal that Trump gets his ass kicked.  That is one good thing about America on a dwindling list of good things about America.  Unless Trump tries to stop an election.  Again.

But this article made me think about your post:

Why Khamenei’s killing hit Putin where it hurts

Quote

In May 2012, not long after Gaddafi’s overthrow, Putin returned to the presidency after a stint as prime minister. He took to the job on an apparent mission to break with the West and root out domestic dissent, which he accused of seeking to work with Russia’s enemies to achieve regime change. 

 

Quote

“It was precisely Gaddafi’s death that became a turning point in Russian politics — both foreign and domestic,” writes Alexander Baunov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center based in Berlin.

 

Whether Libya was a turning point for Putin is debatable.  It's not like he was a fan of democracy beforehand.  

It's also worth noting that this happened after W. had pushed the brilliant idea that Ukraine should be part of NATO.

It's also worth noting that the Libyan disaster happened under Obama, and his Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.  And let's recall one of her problems in 2016 is that she had voted to support the Iraq War as a US Senator.

It's also worth noting that Obama himself, who most Americans and people around the world still admire and respect, stated that Washington tends to have a bias toward war.  And he didn't know what to do about it.

 

Quote

• "The Obama Doctrine": In interviews, particularly leading up to a 2016 Atlantic article, Obama indicated that the Washington establishment has a "bias toward action" and often pressures the president to "unthinkingly drift toward war" in various regions.

 

Trump is certainly proof of concept.  It's a remarkable reversal of what "America First" means.

I've always been more of an "America Together" kind of guy.  One of the few US wars I strongly supported was what we did in Ukraine.  There's no question that a country was invaded, and was actually asking for our help.  And that most of the world was on Ukraine's side.  That makes a difference.

So it is kind of amazing that we went from Trump pissing all over that effort, to Trump deciding to invade a country that didn't ask for our help.  The leaders that didn't ask for our help are now dead.

This is very fucked up.  Like Obama, I don't really know what to think about it.  Other than to hope that Americans repudiate this, including at the polls in November. 

And to realize, like Obama did, that in the long run war begets war.

[stevenkesslar]

6 hours ago, vinapu said:

or gather people around the flag like Anutin did recently in Thailand

What is a remarkable and unfortunate accident of history is that W. and Trump are among the worst warmongers in US history.  And both got elected because of slavery, and put us into wars in Iraq and Iran.

The US electoral college has multiple purposes.  But one historical purpose was supporting slave states.  It was designed intentionally for that purpose.  It enabled Bush to win in 2000, and Trump to win in 2016.  In most other democracies that go by popular vote they would have been the losers.  Even in 2024, when Trump won the popular vote, he couldn't even get to 50 % in a two way race.

Both used the slenderest of victories to do really bold and bad shit.  It ruined W.'s legacy, for sure.  And I am guessing Iran will ruin whatever legacy Trump actually has left to ruin.

There is a good argument that Trump is doing this because he knows he won't ever have to face voters directly again.  So this is what he wants his legacy to be.

It shows remarkable ego and arrogance.  Arguably even dementia or personality disorder.  There are no lack of polls saying loud and clear this is NOT what Americans, including many of his own voters, want.  And yet he did it anyway.