air travel in the coming months

[Londoner]

Any thoughts on what seems to be an imminent  crisis caused by jet-fuel shortages?  I've booked flights for June; and I'm becoming anxious.

[PeterRS]

Qatar has just sent an email offering considerably reduced price tickets ex-Bangkok (about 20%-25% off from what I recall) to various destinations including London and New York. No idea if they work in the opposite direction.

[vinapu]

Best we can do to ourselves is to be stoic. Book the flights, prepare for the trip and in THE DAY go to the airport and fly. If it won't work, have some contingency plan and sleep well assuming that all will work as it should. Being anxious doesn't help. Even in best of times  our travel plans may be ruined by some unexpected event like getting stuck in the elevator due to power failure or breaking leg while walking down the stairs . 

[jimmie50]

Since moving to Denver a couple of years ago, weather delays and cancellations are always a concern...especially during the winter months.  One would think the airport was prepared to handle snow and ice, but it seems like the first few flakes of snow that fall they are ready to cancel flights and close the airport.  lol.  Go figure.  Anyway, it is always good to have a plan B and plan C just in case.  My concern at the moment isn't so much about getting there for an upcoming trip.  It is more about the ability to get back home.  The longer this drags on with no end in sight, the lower jet fuel supplies become worldwide.  They have already been reporting in the news that Europe currently has approximately six weeks of jet fuel remaining.  While one always needs to question the accuracy of news reports, it does give one a reason to perhaps rethink any immediate travel plans.  

[Primeone385]

4 hours ago, jimmie50 said:

Since moving to Denver a couple of years ago, weather delays and cancellations are always a concern...especially during the winter months.  One would think the airport was prepared to handle snow and ice, but it seems like the first few flakes of snow that fall they are ready to cancel flights and close the airport.  lol.  Go figure.  Anyway, it is always good to have a plan B and plan C just in case.  My concern at the moment isn't so much about getting there for an upcoming trip.  It is more about the ability to get back home.  The longer this drags on with no end in sight, the lower jet fuel supplies become worldwide.  They have already been reporting in the news that Europe currently has approximately six weeks of jet fuel remaining.  While one always needs to question the accuracy of news reports, it does give one a reason to perhaps rethink any immediate travel plans.  

I agree with @jimmie50 My trip to brazil is towards the end of the may 3 weeks from today. I am going to be in Rio until June 25. Which means if there is a possibility I could be stuck in that window. I am not even sure how to get back other than plane. In a reasonable amount of time. If there is one. I cannot help but think of how many trains, boats, and buses that would have to go through South America just to get back to Central America. But God how I wouldn't mind being stuck in brazil longer lol. 

[daydreamer]

15 hours ago, Londoner said:

Any thoughts on what seems to be an imminent  crisis caused by jet-fuel shortages?  I've booked flights for June; and I'm becoming anxious.

Here are my thoughts:

It looks like your Thailand trip is safe for June, @Londoner.  At least if you can make it to Thailand, your return flight home should not run into fuel supply issues.

I just read some good news that Thailand is nearing storage capacity for jet fuel, and is considering allowing exports of it to neighboring countries, to be determined.  All six refineries in Thailand are running at full capacity.  Of course, that could change as crude oil supplies get tighter this summer.  

Stockpiled oil around the world is currently being drawn down, and with roughly 20% of world oil supply removed from the market, and current supplies being used faster than being replaced, shortages are inevitable, as stockpiles are depleted.

Viet Nam and the Philippines currently have jet fuel supply issues, as well as New Zealand, and severe shortages are expected in Europe beginning in six weeks.

Airlines have recently said they would cancel flights if the fuel supply at destination airports was questionable, as that could impact their aircraft to return to home airports.  

If you're planning to visit any neighboring countries of Thailand in the next six months, it would be prudent to not include the flight to neighboring countries as part of your long haul ticket, but instead book that short hop on a separate ticket.  That way, in case of fuel shortages, your ticket to return home would likely not be impacted.

There have been numerous news articles in the past few days predicting a looming jet fuel shortage crisis this summer.  Also, the price of jet fuel has doubled since the war began.  

Interestingly, I just read yesterday that airlines can charge fuel surcharges on previously purchased tickets.  Travel gurus advise buying your ticket soon, but that may not insulate you from a later surcharge.

From Google AI - "A severe jet fuel shortage is predicted for summer 2026, particularly in Europe, following the Iran war, with supply constraints potentially cutting 5%-10% of flights. The IEA forecasts a 1 million barrel/day year-on-year decline in supply, leaving Europe with roughly six weeks of fuel left, forcing airlines to cut capacity and surge airfares." 

Here's the link to the very recent article about the Thailand jet fuel supply:

https://www.nationthailand.com/news/general/40065464

 

[PeterRS]

Flight cancellations or major delays are one of the bugbears of regular travel. Thankfully, apart from those affected by weather, we do not see too many.

Other factors can also come into play, though. I once missed a flight from Tokyo's Narita to Hong Kong because of increased security as a result of some bomb scare. All traffic into Narita was always closely inspected with passengers having passports and tickets checked. This happened to me when the security checks ahead of my bus were taking around 100 minutes instead of the usual 10. I missed my flight merely by minutes and then had to pay for overnight accommodation at an airport hotel.

The worst though was on a Cathay Pacific flight from Hong Kong to London in the days of the old Kai Tak airport. Scheduled to depart at 11:30pm, push back from the gate was delayed when an air conditioning problem had to  be fixed. We finally taxied to the end of the runway, reaching there are 11:45. After a seemingly interminable wait, the captain advised we could not take off and would have to return to the gate. The problem was that HKG then had a curfew with no flights in or out permitted after 11:45. The captain said they had been negotiating with the authorities to permit a one minute delay, and were denied. So we had to go back through security and immigration, either go home or spend the night in a hotel paid for by the airline. We took off at 08:30 the next morning. The only benefit was that I was able to see the pyramids below in the late afternoon sun!

Curfews are not uncommon at airports like Heathrow, Sydney, Frankfurt, Zurich, Paris Orly,  Toronto and Schippol affected.

But the possibility of fuel shortages is somewhat scary for those with travel plans over the next few months. I've suffered from that too. A flight from Hong Kong to Melbourne was cancelled at 2 days notice due to a jet fuel tanker drivers strike meaning the aicraft could not fuel up for the return. And again many years ago I was on the then longest flight in the world, Northwest Airlines flight from Detroit to Seoul. After dinner and a sleep, I asked the purser if we were close to Seoul. She pointed out that there had been very strong headwinds and the captain was not sure if there would be enough fuel to get to Seoul (gulp!) But added that a contingency refueling stop at Narita was being considered. Fortunately it was not necessary and the plane did not fall out of the sky!!

[daydreamer]

Last month, I purchased an airline ticket to Thailand for later this year.  I bought it the day after the missiles started flying in Iran in early March.

Yesterday I checked to see if the price has changed - wow, the same airline, same date, has increased in price 54% since last month.  This is likely not because seats are selling out fast, as the flight date is more than six months from now.  

I know ticket prices fluctuate, but that's a huge price increase, likely due in large part to the jet fuel outlook for later this year.

[jason1975]

15 minutes ago, daydreamer said:

Last month, I purchased an airline ticket to Thailand for later this year.  I bought it the day after the missiles started flying in Iran in early March.

Yesterday I checked to see if the price has changed - wow, the same airline, same date, has increased in price 54% since last month.  This is likely not because seats are selling out fast, as the flight date is more than six months from now.  

I know ticket prices fluctuate, but that's a huge price increase, likely due in large part to the jet fuel outlook for later this year.

Fortunately for you that you bought your air ticket before price increase! Now you have more money to spend on boys!

[jimmie50]

48 minutes ago, daydreamer said:

I know ticket prices fluctuate, but that's a huge price increase, likely due in large part to the jet fuel outlook for later this year

You might want to double check the fine print on your ticket.  Some places allow airlines to pass on a fuel surcharge even after you have purchased the ticket.  Our next door neighbors got hit with such a surcharge after the fact on a recent trip to Africa (last week).  They had purchased the tickets months ago...long before missiles started flying.  Regulations vary by country, but it seems here in the US the airlines are allowed to pass on the fuel surcharge regardless of when the ticket was purchased.