Air Fare Increases and Schedule Reductions

[PeterRS]

With Trump pulling out of talks on reopening the Straits of Hormuz, the jet fuel situation can only get worse. Some airlines have already increased fuel surchares. Cathay Pacific started this last month. Since April 1 there has been a second round of increases. All tickets irrespective of class now attract an additional 34% surcharge. Round trip flights to Australia, New Zealand, USA, Canada, Europe, Middle East and Africa now have a US$500 surcharge. Inter-Asian tickets now add US$100. On long haul flights this represents a 174% increase in little less than one month. The carrier has also stated it will review fuel surcharge amounts every two weeks.

Singapore Airlines has already raised fares but I can not find out by how much because the airline merges fuel costs into the basic ticket price. THAI has said it plans to increase by 10%-15% which seems pretty low compared to the hikes by CX. 

As I wrote yesterday, there are still some deals to be had with Qatar now offering limited business class seats from Bangkok to London at Bt. 99,000 for the next few weeks. But with Doha having the USA's largest air base in the Middle East and already targetted by Iranian drones, the chances of last minute cancellations must surely be quite high.  

19 of 20 major airlines have already cut capacity. Lufthansa is cutting 20,000 flights over the next 6 months. United plans to cut 5% of capacity and the airline's CEO has stated that fares may have to go up by 15%-20%. Air New Zealand has slashed flights for May and June.

https://milelion.com/2026/03/27/cathay-pacific-hikes-fuel-surcharges-for-the-second-time-in-two-weeks/

https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/flight-cancellations-airlines-lufthansa-united-easyjet-jet-fuel-shortage-b2964033.html

[TMax]

I've been looking at Thai Airways Perth / Bangkok fares for early November and at the moment the cheapest business class is about $4100 Australian but will have to wait until June to make my booking, I only look at business because now days as I just hate economy cattle class. Hoping the fares don't jump too much between now and the time I book but if it does I will just have to suck it up. Qantas and Jetstar (2 crap airlines) have already started dropping some routes (domestic ones mainly), mostly the not so busy ones but they will likely be looking at some other routes but I did hear something about reduction in international flight frequency on some routes.

[Keithambrose]

16 hours ago, PeterRS said:

With Trump pulling out of talks on reopening the Straits of Hormuz, the jet fuel situation can only get worse. Some airlines have already increased fuel surchares. Cathay Pacific started this last month. Since April 1 there has been a second round of increases. All tickets irrespective of class now attract an additional 34% surcharge. Round trip flights to Australia, New Zealand, USA, Canada, Europe, Middle East and Africa now have a US$500 surcharge. Inter-Asian tickets now add US$100. On long haul flights this represents a 174% increase in little less than one month. The carrier has also stated it will review fuel surcharge amounts every two weeks.

Singapore Airlines has already raised fares but I can not find out by how much because the airline merges fuel costs into the basic ticket price. THAI has said it plans to increase by 10%-15% which seems pretty low compared to the hikes by CX. 

As I wrote yesterday, there are still some deals to be had with Qatar now offering limited business class seats from Bangkok to London at Bt. 99,000 for the next few weeks. But with Doha having the USA's largest air base in the Middle East and already targetted by Iranian drones, the chances of last minute cancellations must surely be quite high.  

19 of 20 major airlines have already cut capacity. Lufthansa is cutting 20,000 flights over the next 6 months. United plans to cut 5% of capacity and the airline's CEO has stated that fares may have to go up by 15%-20%. Air New Zealand has slashed flights for May and June.

https://milelion.com/2026/03/27/cathay-pacific-hikes-fuel-surcharges-for-the-second-time-in-two-weeks/

https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/flight-cancellations-airlines-lufthansa-united-easyjet-jet-fuel-shortage-b2964033.html

Luftwaffe also cancelled  an entire airline subsidiary at a few days notice. Judging from all the complaints  I read, they seem to be dire, let alone the various strikes.

[daydreamer]

1 hour ago, Keithambrose said:

Luftwaffe also cancelled  an entire airline subsidiary at a few days notice.

I believe the Luftwaffe was terminated with the defeat of the Nazi regime at the end of WWII.

[PeterRS]

8 hours ago, Keithambrose said:

Luftwaffe also cancelled  an entire airline subsidiary at a few days notice. Judging from all the complaints  I read, they seem to be dire, let alone the various strikes.

That was a small subsidiary Lufthansa CityLine that was due to be closed down anyway in 2027.

[Keithambrose]

On 4/27/2026 at 7:02 AM, PeterRS said:

That was a small subsidiary Lufthansa CityLine that was due to be closed down anyway in 2027.

Oh, that's ok then, only 25 aircraft. No problem!

[Keithambrose]

On 4/27/2026 at 12:34 AM, daydreamer said:

I believe the Luftwaffe was terminated with the defeat of the Nazi regime at the end of WWII.

Er, joke......

[PeterRS2]

WIth Trump comitted again to the war he stated he had ended a couple of months ago, I wonder if any member has had his flights ex-BKK to Europe cancelled or rescheduled? I am booked on Royal Jordanian flights to Europe in early September as Jordan was initially not caught up in the attacks from Iran. Now there is news of Iranian attacks on US bases in Jordan. Since I have 6 other pre-paid flights within Europe, I am getting concerned that my RJ flights might be cancelled.  

[macaroni21]

Trump is so mercurial and the situation so fluid that even if people say they have seen no cancellations, is that any assurance what tomorrow or the next week may bring?

I just heard, well maybe not 'just' but a week ago, from my brother in law that a couple of months ago when he to had to go to Germany for a conference after a few days stopover in Hong Kong (family matter, I believe), he chose a Chinese airline to get from HK to Frankfurt via Shanghai or Beijing (can't remember which he said it was). He didn't want any risk of cancellation too. The route over Russia was relatively quick, he said. Russian airspace isn't closed to Chinese airlines.

What I don't know (I didn't ask) was the price advantage or disadvantage, but I had the sense that peace of mind was worth paying for, if necessary.

Perhaps you could explore a similar alternative routing via China. Since you were going to transfer in Amman anyway, changing in Shanghai or Beijing isn't an added inconvenience.

[PeterRS2]

17 hours ago, macaroni21 said:

Perhaps you could explore a similar alternative routing via China. Since you were going to transfer in Amman anyway, changing in Shanghai or Beijing isn't an added inconvenience.

If anything happens re cancellation of my RJ flight, I will do that. I have flown Chinese airlines quite a few times and have found them very efficient and comfortable. Normally I would try for a ticket on Cathay Pacific, but their prices have been soaring recently.

[Keithambrose]

10 hours ago, PeterRS2 said:

If anything happens re cancellation of my RJ flight, I will do that. I have flown Chinese airlines quite a few times and have found them very efficient and comfortable. Normally I would try for a ticket on Cathay Pacific, but their prices have been soaring recently.

An article today commenting on drastic cuts at Aer Lingus, suggested  that the entire airline may be closed.

[PeterRS2]

14 hours ago, Keithambrose said:

An article today commenting on drastic cuts at Aer Lingus, suggested  that the entire airline may be closed.

Yet again no link - and I can not find even one that confirms this supposed news that the airllione may be closed. Please provide the link.

Besides, Aer Lingus remains profitable with an operating margin last year of 11% and flew to 93 destinations with a passenger load factor of 79%. This is greater than many European airlines!

Like many airlines it is cutting a few routes. These are to Denver, Minneapolis, Las Vegas and Seattle. They represent a mere 6% of its route structure! It continues to fly to a host of US cities including New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Washington, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Miami, Cleveland and Seattle  And as Finnair has been doing for years, it is reducing  less than a handful of European routes to summer only. One route from Dublin to Split is the only one cancelled in Europe.

https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2026/0716/1583733-aerlingus-cuts-analysis/

[Keithambrose]

4 hours ago, PeterRS2 said:

Yet again no link - and I can not find even one that confirms this supposed news that the airllione may be closed. Please provide the link.

Besides, Aer Lingus remains profitable with an operating margin last year of 11% and flew to 93 destinations with a passenger load factor of 79%. This is greater than many European airlines!

Like many airlines it is cutting a few routes. These are to Denver, Minneapolis, Las Vegas and Seattle. They represent a mere 6% of its route structure! It continues to fly to a host of US cities including New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Washington, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Miami, Cleveland and Seattle  And as Finnair has been doing for years, it is reducing  less than a handful of European routes to summer only. One route from Dublin to Split is the only one cancelled in Europe.

https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2026/0716/1583733-aerlingus-cuts-analysis/

As you perhaps know, 11% profitability, though good, is below the level demanded by IAG, hence the issues. Possible break up, as a solution, was put forward by Willie Walsh, reported in 'Head for Points' on 18th July.

[PeterRS2]

2 hours ago, Keithambrose said:

As you perhaps know, 11% profitability, though good, is below the level demanded by IAG, hence the issues. Possible break up, as a solution, was put forward by Willie Walsh, reported in 'Head for Points' on 18th July. 

Thank you for the link. What Willie Walsh does say is that the 11% margin is just below the 12%-15% margin demanded of IAG members. It is just 1% below and the airline's measures are being taken to bring that percentage well within the required margin. He did not state failure to do so would lead to closure. He said failure to make cuts COULD lead to the airline being shrunk substantially OR it could be closed down.

But let's take a moment to look at IAG and Willie Walsh's record as its CEO from which he resigned in 2020. Before then he was the CEO at Aer Lingus and then BA. When he ran BA, he encountered/created a lot of problems including computer blackouts and strikes. In flight services were also sometimes cut, and I recall an inter Europe flight in business class when all we were offered was a bottle of water handed out at the door. I can recall the old days of its rival British Caledonian which served full meals on its inter-Britain services and whose in flight long-haul services were far better. BA, prior to its merger with BEA, then killed it.

Let's also recall that IAG only has four airlines in its group - British Airways, Iberia, Aer Lingus and Vuellig. That hardly makes Willie Walsh the unbiased expert he always likes to sound. Let's also recall that IAG is only the 5th largest airline group globally in terms of revenue and the third largest in Europe. Aer Lingus could, if it so wished, apply to move to one of the two larger groupings of Lufthansa or Air France-KLM.

That Head for Points article adds and omits several issues. Walsh's comments are no doubt Willie Walsh practising a degree of self preservation for BA. He has always believed BA should have a monopoly of routes to North America. But he forgets that the passenger levies and taxes out of Dublin are vastly lower than those charged by Heathrow, so it can offer lower fares. Dublin's passenger duty is the lowest of any capital city in Europe. From next year Dublin will charge €8:85 per passenger. Three years ago Heathrow wanted to increase taxes from €37 to €47. Government regulators forced a decrease until the end of this year when they will rise again.  

Let's also remember that Willie Walsh mandates cuts at Aer Lingus -

because the airline is not profitable. Yet it is one of the more profitable airlines in the world. The Irish Airline Pilots’ Association believes that Aer Lingus is the ninth most profitable airline in Europe with the fifth-highest operating margin . . . Whilst bad, especially in terms of staff numbers, the route cuts are not as harsh as some people feared. Losing just three of the 20 long haul routes to North America is at the lower end of expectations.

Hardly the sort of figures of airlines which are about to close. Let's not forget that Willie Walsh has had problems in the past with other airlines under his banner. When he took over Aer Lingus, he turned it into a low cost carrier. When he took Iberia under IAG's wing in 2011, that airline was in a dreadful financial state - far worse than that facing Aer Llingus now. This became a huge drag on IAG's profits and resulted in major losses in 2012 and 2013. Why he is moaning on about Aer Lingus now shows he has conveniently forgotten his earlier near disastrous financial mistakes with iberia.

[khaolakguy]

5 hours ago, PeterRS2 said:

The Irish Airline Pilots’ Association believes that Aer Lingus is the ninth most profitable airline in Europe with the fifth-highest operating margin

That's nothing to shout about, particularly as Irish Airline Pilots might just have a vested interest in the issue!

[Travelingguy]

I think that IHG is sabotaging Aer Lingus.  They are cutting 10% of their workforce.  11% is an outstanding profit margin, and this despite the fact that they get so much less investment than other IHG airlines.  I think Aer Lingus would be better off with Air France/KLM or Lufthansa.

[PeterRS2]

Re my earlier post, I will no doubt be accused by some as having a bias against Willie Walsh? Think so? Well I do! He took over from one of the most astute minds in the arline business. Sir Rod Eddington had been Managing Director of Cathay Pacific until his appointment to BA in 2000. He got rid of a number of his predecessor's unpopular initiatives and brought a degree of class back to the front cabins. His successor Willie Walsh was basically a low cost carrier believer as became obvious throughout much of his tenure. A pilot himself, he clearly knows the business inside out, but I still believe his loyalties lie in the low cost carrier model and far from that of legacy airlines.

I stuck with BA for 15 years for one reason only - it took far fewer flights and considerably less expense to reach its Gold Executive class status compared to Cathay Pacific. Then in 2015 I took return flights from Berlin to Chicago via LHR which were dreadful. I tore up my BA card and donated remaining Avios miles to charity.

[BjornAgain]

On 7/20/2026 at 12:59 PM, PeterRS2 said:

...His successor Willie Walsh was basically a low cost carrier believer as became obvious throughout much of his tenure. A pilot himself...

Happy to join you in any Willie Walsh bashing. In terms of being a pilot, lets just say he wasn't held to high exteem by his colleagues, hence his jump into management.

Remember when he was appointed in 2000 to CEO of Air Lingus, Google, Yahoo, Ask Jeeves and the BBC were forced to update their syntax/ spell checkers across their UK platforms, as Willie was deemed an offensive word at the time! Therefor; initial news bulletins were surpressed.