Myanmar Junta Threatens Disaster on Thai Border

reader · April 11

From The Irrawaddy

It was to be expected.

Min Aung Hlaing and his regime have in the last few weeks suffered a series of major defeats in Arakan and Kachin states and most recently in Karen State at Myawaddy, an important border trade town. These defeats are significant for two reasons.

First is the humiliation factor: They have inevitably eroded morale among troops while seriously undermining trust in Min Aung Hlaing within the military and its loyalists.

Second is the strategic factor: The defeats have cut major supply and trade lines, giving control over important border crossings to anti-junta liberation forces, increasing the resistance’s access to resources, and significantly altering the regional and international view on the junta’s ability to control the country.

For those reasons, Min Aung Hlaing and his regime are left with little choice but to attempt action that:

Instantly grabs media and public attention.
Is destructive and painful enough to divert attention away from recent defeats in Kachin State and Myawaddy.

The junta cannot undertake a major offensive in Kachin for logistical and geographic reasons. Neither can it send ground troops into Arakan State, because this would inevitably lead to massive losses and more humiliating surrenders.

Myawaddy is the only place where the junta can realistically mount a counteroffensive. Its goal would not be to seize back the border town (the military and its overarching power structure are no longer capable of retaking and consolidating control over territories and towns they have lost).