stevenkesslar

And Vox took the truth and ran with it. Asking a logical enough question: why would it be so easy to think such rumors are true? J.D. Vance didn’t have sex with a couch. But he’s still extremely weird. The rumors were easy to believe, especially when the potential VP has such terrible ideas about sex. There was another great 2Way chat with Mark Halperin tonight in which a theory came up about Tim Walz. Alex Castellanos, the Republican political hack I have cited in posts, said some candidates are Teflon and some are Velcro. He suggested that, watching Walz at that rally tonight, Walz may have a coat of Teflon. He hunts, he fishes, he smiles, he laughs, he hugs kids who hug him when he signs a bill giving them free lunches. Meanwhile, JD says women without kids suck. And women with abusive husbands need to man up. Too early to tell. But Walz may be the Teflon candidate, and JD may be the Velcro one.

https://www.facebook.com/GovTimWalz/videos/393678466713436 When he was in the US House, Walz represented the district I went to college in. Northfield, MN is a liberal enclave with two liberal arts colleges in an otherwise red part of Minnesota. I was a student there when the only other Democrat House member elected in a century, Tim Penny, flipped the seat. Much like Walz did, by knowing how to play to the center and connect to rural and small town America. I remember back in my college days going door knocking for my college professor Paul Wellstone in the first campaign he lost, for State Auditor. A conversation I will never forget is knocking on the door of some Gay guy with AIDS in an apartment building. This was the 1980's, back when AIDS was a death sentence. He basically said something like, "I could give a shit about your candidate. I am Gay man and I have AIDS and no politician gives a shit about me." So I told him Paul supported LGBTQ rights, blah blah blah, which he eventually did as a US Senator. Walz is already being attacked as a "radical", basically because he stands up to bullies. This shows how much has changed. And how much political leadership makes a difference. Nancy Pelosi and the Ryan White Act. Joe Biden and being one of the political leaders in the forefront on same sex marriage, who made it the law of the land on his watch. I'm a Californian who went to college in Minnesota. I could not be more proud of these two leaders, and how they have our back. And speaking of rural and small town America: Why Pelosi and other House Dems were privately pushing Walz I was leaning to the idea that Shapiro was probably the best choice. Because it would have made a statement about moderation. And it would have helped Pennsylvania. But now that I know about him, Walz seems like a bigger bet with a potentially bigger reward. Especially if I imagine Walz can help candidates in swing states and swing House districts, which they apparently think he can. He knows the House, he is respected in the House, and a Harris/Walz team - if elected with a Democratic House and Senate - could get a lot of shit done. This will be an epic and good fight for the future.

In terms of these labels like "radical" and "socialist", I think we're already getting a glimpse of how shallow and ineffective they will ultimately be. Just like they were with Obama. If you watched the Kamala/Tim show in Philly, you heard this already. I think this may have been Walz's best applause line at the rally: How radical is that? 😉 One thing Walz said three times, in complimenting Harris, is "joy". He talked about how Harris fights for what she believes in with joy. As does he. I think he is showing off his well earned emotional intelligence. I feel the same way about both of them. And I think that conveys itself to people, and will help them. Team Raping Felon will of course give it their best shot, as Mr. Rich Felon and Mr. Silicon Valley Hypocrite argue that they stand for Middle America and its values. But I think it is all bullshit. Even Ohio voters knew when, when Hillbilly Bullshitter dramatically underperformed just about every other Ohio Republican. And I am increasingly confident the bullshit and lies and hate and filth and sex scandals and tax cuts to billionaires and bullying and cruelty and meanness and just abhorrent weird creepy shit that is everything Trump stands for is going to be flushed down the toilet, where shit belongs to go. There is a lot to be said for joy!

Why Tim Walz Was the Guy Another great article on why Walz was picked. There's another phrase that has been used by a few smart political operatives that makes sense: "work horse versus show horse." Instead of gradually learning Walz is a socialist, to the degree that people even give a shit about him what they will probably learn is that, like Shapiro, he cares about getting shit done. It matters that Walz heads the Democratic Governors Association. And that he flipped a rural centrist Congressional seat blue. And that he actually could get popular left-of-center laws passed involving things like education, health care, family leave, abortion rights. This is what a party that is NOT focused on a personality, but instead is focused on winning and governing, actually does.

Of course, to comment on my own post, why am I not surprised Newt Gingrich does not agree? Hope apparently does spring eternal with Gingrich. He was a real somebody in 1994! So he can keep calling Harris and Walz "radical" all he wants. Walz won by 54 % in 2018 and 53 % of the vote in 2018. How radical is that? By comparison, the former Democratic Guv Mark Dayton, who was a scion of a rich liberal Minnesota family, won by 44 % in 2010 and 50 % in 2018. Minnesota has been accurately described as Iowa, with the Twin Cities - which is what makes it blue. So Walz has been battle tested. And survey says he is not radical. This does set the tone for the election, I think. Democrats have to do one extremely difficult thing. They have to open their mouths and tell voters what they believe from the bottom of their hearts. Meanwhile, Trump and Vance have a very easy job. They just have to lie, rape, steal, and break laws. Lies are not lies. It is Donald Trump being regal and explaining the truth to us morons. Rape is not rape. It is Donald Trump being kind enough to fuck America. Stealing is not stealing. It is just Donald Trump letting Mike Pence have fun being hung for once. And Republicans who break laws are just standing up for law and order. I will happily vote in a way that I really never have before. It will be like flushing the toilet of all this nasty hate, shit, and bile that Trump brought to America. It's time to clean out the asshole.

Hope slings eternal? 😉

I think Tim Walz just solved the label problem. What a monster! I'm lovin it!

Or not. I love the pick! I'm of course the guy that communicates in longs blocks of boring text. I'm no Tim Walz. But it sounds like part of the reason he was picked is he lit up the internet as the old White guy calling Republicans "weird". And roasting how they are mean bullies who love tax cuts for billionaires and punish and scapegoat queers and have nots. Jab those hypocrites, rapists, and felons with your pitchfork, Tim! And how could you NOT love this guy? I think his appeal is he's the anti-JD Vance and anti-Donald Trump. He did things that are real, and that people really care about. He is a real person who speaks like a real person. I think what stands out to me is that I am very proud of my party, the Democrats. First, they got the old White guy, Biden, out of the way. He needed to go. Second, they let the dynamic Black woman rise. The base of the party loves it, and Harris is leading Trump by 2 points in the 538 average! Third, this decision process speaks well for Harris. She got lots of heavy hitters to vet, think through, and interview the finalists, then met with them. If the reporting is correct, Shapiro had reservations about giving up his job, which he is basically pretty new at. Walz has been Guv for six years, has a great record, is an excellent communicator, and does have the Biden appeal to old White guys. And probably is the most progressive on lots of issues. And the state and style are very Midwest: Wisconsin, Michigan, western Pennsylvania. If there is a downside to this it is the path of least resistance choice. Since no one disliked him the way some people disliked Shapiro (Jewish/Israel) or Kelly (not strong enough on unions). But frankly that's okay. Because Walz could be POTUS, and so he should stand for the ideals and values of his party. He does. I'm lovin it!

I'm saying she's a liberal, based on Senate career ranking. And she is perceived as a liberal by voters. If we want to use Senate career rankings, Obama was the 7th most liberal Senator during his time, whereas Harris was the 3rd most liberal. Or, in short, they were both pretty liberal. Clinton, Kerry, and especially Sanders were ranked as slightly more liberal than either Obama or Harris. So if we are just going by the facts, you can have a debate about whether any of those people are "too liberal" to win. Obama obviously did win, twice. Clinton came close. So I don't think Harris is too liberal to win. I'll add this. She is already making space between herself and "progressives" on issues like fracking. That makes sense to me. Stu Stevens, who was Romney's politico, made a good point. You can argue based on 2020 that Harris is a failed politician at the national level. But Stevens argues the opposite. She won every race she was actually on the ballot for. And she has deftly played her cards and been vague and obtuse when needed to get in position to be Veep, and now POTUS candidate. So her blurring of lines, much like Obama did, may be helpful. She can own being a liberal, which is better than being a flip flopper, but also be vague when needed and let people think what they want. Meanwhile, "San Francisco radical" is the phrase Newt Gingrich coined recently, and Alex Castellano is throwing around, too. The idea is basically that she can be portrayed as so "radical" that she'll lose badly. Gingrich is the one who specifically said this will be like McGovern/Nixon in 1972. I think he is full of himself. By this point in 1972 McGovern was already losing in a landslide in polls. So I think the better comparisons are Obama, Clinton, and Kerry. That includes one win, one landslide win, one popular vote win that was the narrowest of electoral college losses, and one loss. Unrelated but related, RFK has melted down in the polls. So that matters due to Allan Lichtman's keys. Unless something changes - namely, a recession - he will very likely predict Harris will win after the convention this month. According to Lichtman, she has three of his keys against her for sure: not incumbent, 2022 midterm losses, not charismatic. It sounds from his YouTube weekly talks like Lichtman will turn both foreign policy keys against the incumbent party. That's five keys against Harris. And his system says it takes six keys against you to lose. One other interesting fact. The only times Lichtman has been wrong, both predicting in advance since 1984 and predicting retrospectively since the Civil War in his book, is when a candidate with five keys against him - meaning he supposed to win - actually lost. Lichtman judged Grover Cleveland to have five keys against him in 1888. Meaning he should have won. And he did win the popular vote, 48.6 % to 47.8 %. But he lost the electoral college to Benjamin Harrison. Sound familiar? Same thing in 2000. Al Gore had five keys against him, and Lichtman did predict in advance he would win. Again, he did win the popular vote. But he lost Florida. Sound familiar? So I think that is the worry. All of this suggests it will be a close race. And it could end like either 2020 (Harris squeaks by in the electoral college) or 2016 (Harris wins the popular vote but narrowly loses the electoral college). On this point of "liberal" or "radical", some moderate Republican politico in Pennsylvania who is on TV a lot is also saying that even if she picks Shapiro he just thinks Harris is too liberal to win the state. Especially due to fracking. Which also hurt Clinton in 2016, of course.

I've been watching a lot of Mark Halperin's daily 2 Way conversations, which is exceptionally good political reporting and rapport by the Game Change co-author. Some of the Republican regulars keep insisting that when voters find out about how liberal Harris is, she'll tank. Newt Gingrich, always a flame thrower, got out early in predicting this sets Democrats up for a McGovern style loss. Since Gingrich likes to talk history, one would guess he'd know that by August 1972 the polls showed McGovern was in fact headed to a landslide defeat. The polls now show Harris tied. Whatever! Harder to dismiss is Alex Castellanos, a more moderate GOP type who usually doesn't make such far out predictions. But so far he's holding tight on the idea that Kamala is like Wile E Coyote, running on air. Look out below! If that's true, voters don't know it yet. The polls and momentum and money make that clear. Gingrich is calling Harris a "San Francisco radical" and is banking on the fact that her record will indict her. Funny to think about Harris being indicted. 😉 One of the first factoids that was used is that Harris is more liberal than Bernie Sanders. Three points on that. Sanders denied it. And according to GovTrack, the source used, Sanders is and was the most liberal Senator of all. But the third and most interesting point is that Harris's liberal voting record is almost exactly the same as this guy named Barack Hussein Obama. Remember him? President Barack Obama Voting Record Vice President Kamala Harris Voting Record They don't give either a numerical score. But if you look at that chart as having ten lines with 5 meaning center and 0 meaning most liberal, Obama and Harris would both be right at about 0.7. That's liberal, for sure. Obama had eight Senators more liberal than him, including Clinton, Kerry, Sanders, and Sherrod Brown - who manages to keep getting elected in now red Ohio. Harris had three Senators more liberal than her, including Sanders. (Brown moved from about 0.5 to about 1.5, probably to keep getting elected in Ohio, I'd imagine.) Needless to say, the national voting history of Obama, Clinton, and even Kerry and Sanders does not suggest landslide losses. Kerry is the only one of the four who actually lost the national popular vote. The polls in Summer 2016 said Sanders would have beat Trump had he been nominated. Kamala Harris Is Unburdened And Has A Prime Opportunity To Define Herself That article is the most substantive one I have seen so far on voter perceptions of Kamala Harris. And trust in her, versus Trump. Sounds like Harris is being helped by excitement, not ignorance. Voters know where she stands on abortion, health care, climate, democracy, and rights. No wonder women, young voters, and non-White voters are flocking to her. Harris actually does a little bit better than Trump on those issues. Which may be why she is tied, and in place to open a lead soon. The attack ads will no doubt find Harris's vulnerabilities and pounce on them. But the idea that she will be branded as a radical doesn't seem likely - anymore than it led Obama, Clinton, Kerry, or Sanders to landslide losses. Harris now has the momentum of Obama in 2008. He won, right? 😉 And then there is this: Sure, Obama had "Dreams Of My Father" and that whole birtherism mystique. But a book on crime written by a prosecutor seems more down to earth, and moderate. Harris is more like Road Runner than Wile E Coyote, I think. She will likely outpace the Failing Felon, who polls say voters believe is old and lacks mental acuity. Poor loser!

It's just a bad time for genocide, isn't it? 😒 A month ago, Genocide Man Russia and Genocide Man Israel could look forward to The Raping Lying Felon being elected POTUS, so they could proceed with their genocides. Now Harris is giving genocide a run for its money. And they say she isn't tough? Putin will not alter course. Being the macho murdering he man he is, he may think it will be easier to deal with a woman. Bibi is a different matter. President Harris has a Jewish husband, and is likely to have a Jewish Veep. That will make it easier for her to push the Genocide Jew. Not to be confused with "Genocide Joe", of course, who is basically history. Specifically, it will strengthen Biden's hands in negotiating with Bibi the Butcher, since Bibi will have to calculate that things may get worse for the genocidal asshole under Harris. That said, Israel - unlike America - truly seems to be going further and further right. Bibi is now tied or slightly leading in the polls again. And he's using US opposition to his butchering to stir up right wing support. Same thing Genocide Vlad does in Russia, the soon to be failed and disinetgrating state. So Bibi the Butcher, like Genocide Vlad, may just do whatever he wants.

And was her first "Black" job the one where she was dangerously radical - practically murderous as well as very low IQ - and she freed raping Black hordes who murdered and were the nastiest people you ever saw? Or was that the first "Black" job where she mercilessly threw gentle loving kind Black men in jail because she is a mean ruthless bitch who will do anything for power? In addition to using every racist trope they can think of and being really stupid, the Trump campaign seems confused about which Kamala Harris they are trying to beat. They are flip flopping on social media. On the one hand she's the radical who doesn't believe in borders or jail. On the other hand she is the not Black woman who Black man should not vote for because she will throw their ass in jail. None of it is moving the needle. Except to prove, yet again, that Trump goes to stupid and racist when he is losing. Meanwhile, there's this. She's probably the only person to run for POTUS who has written a book about being smart on crime and safety. Which is bad luck for Trump, seeing as how he is the first racist felon rapist to run for POTUS.

Slammer time. I guess they try Celebrity Inmate or something, though. 😲

Trump is obviously losing. And he knows it. He just goes to racism and stupidity when he's losing.. The thought of not having to listen to four more years of this man's lies and hate is delighting me.

I love it. The more truth Harris tells, the more Trump lies. She's obviously going to drill down on what's good for the middle class versus Trump's pandering to Big Oil and corporate tax cuts. And facts, like America is producing more energy than ever. And she's obviously going to moderate on fracking. One poll already has her tied with Trump in Pennsylvania. There's this assumption that once "the real Kamala" is explained to America, her bounce will flatten. I don't think so. I think Harris is rolling out the "real Kamala" now. And she is no more liberal than Barack Obama. Didn't he win in a landslide after all kinds of failed character attacks? 😉

Who's cackling now? Who's cackling now? Who's got the stupid and sexist eyebrows? Trump's sad and blue. And JD too. They're just two super weird dudes!

As far as I am concerned his Megyn Kelly interview sucked. He still sounded like he thinks childless women are somehow inferior. He managed to imply that the children of immigrants, in general, are inferior to native born children. His wife is the child of immigrants. Huh? Maybe he is just dumb as rocks. But the part that fell the most flat to me as an explanation is this: Profoundly anti-child? Harris clearly plans to run on very popular policies that could be paid for by taxing billionaires. Like parental leave and child care. The expanded child tax credit cut child poverty in half for one year, until Manchin and Republicans killed it. It helped something like 50 million kids. While it was not the main point, it softened the blow of inflation on working class families when the whole world was going through post-COVID inflation. It would soften the blow of higher prices on working class families with children now. This is a set up question for both JD and Trump. If they are down on childless cat women, will they support pro-family and pro-child policies? Both these guys come off as sexist pigs who are dumb as rocks.

Maybe he's just busy having sex with his couch? Maybe he and JD are even finding comfort together. It relieves the tension, you know. I mean, let's be honest. Just a week ago, @EmmetK thought this huge climax was in the bag Now Trump is just the old guy who can't get it up, And poor Emmet is fucked. May as well enjoy it.

That's part of the problem. They said he's mostly absolutely immune, and if there are any questions left someone else can figure it out. I'm not a lawyer. But since appointing a SCOTUS nominee is an official act, he could probably sell it to Musk. Although that has to be approved by the Senate. Maybe a better example would be if he shot JD Vance on 5th Ave., just because Trump fucked up in hiring him but won't say so, and then paid Elon Musk to replace him. Picking a Veep is an official act.

Border crossings lower than when Trump left, after trying to steal an election and having his mob beat the shit out of cops. Trump trashes compromise immigration bill conservative Lankford and moderate Sinema spent a year working on. Compromise? No. Pass laws? No. Break laws? Yes. Rape? Yes. Lie? Yes. Meanwhile, Kamala said don't come. America will choose rule of law, not the raping lying felon.

Wait. I don't get it. Donald Trump is purposefully lying about Project 2025 for political reasons? Huh? Donald Trump never lies! How could this be? And the raping lying crook is not only lying about the future. He is lying about the past. The raping lying crook has been here before, and done this before. Now it will be even more extreme and anti-democratic. From Project 2025 website: These are some of the things the extremists at Heritage take credit for already doing in Trump 1.0 - Trump leaving Paris climate accords. No, there is no climate change. - Trump reducing federal funding for highways. Why do infrastructure instead of cutting taxes for the rich? - Trump defunding and delegitimizing Affordable Care Act implementation and trying to repeal it completely. - Trump defunding any group that provides abortion counseling. - Trump eliminate teen pregnancy prevention grants. (Women should stay at home and have babies, right JD?) - Trump undermining and kill federal safety protections for workers in OSHA. Many of the worst ideas in Trump 1.0 were not adopted because they did not have the votes, especially after the 2018 midterms. The proposals for Trump 2.0 are more extreme.

Who is saying that? Trump to all the rapists and crooks in America? JD Vance to all the men who want to grab the pussies of childless women? Kamala Harris - if that is who you mean - literally said, "Don't come." Kamala Harris - if that is who you mean - backed a compromise immigration reform bill written by conservative Senator James Lankford that Trump killed. Trump is chaos. Trump is crime. Trump is rape, Trump is sexual assault. Trump is a crook. Murder jumped 30 % on Trump's watch in 2020. Guns flowed. Blood flowed. Harris and Biden reduced murder by about 20 % in the last two years. Harris stands for the rule of law. Trump is a rapist, a liar, a crook. Let change in. Let the rule of law in. Let the future in.