stevenkesslar

Well. 2 out of 3 ain't bad. 😉 I hope you are right.

Did facts bully you when you were a kid? Did facts beat you? Did facts rape you? What did facts do to you, @EmmetK? Clearly, you hate facts. You simply can't be trusted to use facts. What did facts do to you? The article says nothing about how Biden is heading for a "landslide defeat". In fact, Trump is leading Biden by 1.9 % right now in the RCP average. That's not a landslide, @EmmetK. That's within the statistical margin of error. What did facts do to you? Did they harm you? Did facts bully you? To your second "important takeaway", the article actually confirms what most posters -BUT NOT YOU - have been saying. Both Biden and Trump are too old. 59 % of voters say that, including the vast majority of Democrats and Independents. The people who are out of touch are MAGA Republicans. What is it about facts with you people? In addition to denying that Trump lost in 2020, and in addition to all the cop bone breaking and denial about that, now you are in full denial about Trump being too old. And perhaps demented. What did facts do to you, @EmmetK? Why do you hate facts so much? 73 % of Democrats agree Biden is too old. About the same percentage of Independents say Trump is too old. So the only people who are out of touch are Republicans. Only 35 % of them are willing to admit Trump is too old. And too dangerous. And probably demented. That's not a shocker, of course. The cult has to believe Donald Trump won the 2020 election. The cult has to believe "patriots" were being taken "hostage", when they were mercilessly beating the shit out of cops and trying to steal an election. And hang Mike Pence, too. So the notion that MAGA Republicans can admit to themselves that Trump is an old, demented fascist is clearly beyond the pale. It doesn't really help you win an election. Because the third or so of Americans who are in denial about Trump are going to vote for him, anyway. He could be dead, or in prison, and they'd vote for them. Everyone else? They think Trump is too old. And the election will remind everybody just how dangerous he is. That didn't work so well for Trump or Republicans in 2020. Or 2018. Or 2022. So you might want to wait before you plan your landslide party. Poor @EmmetK. What did facts do to you?

So you're actually MORE alarmed than I am. I figured you meant the opposite. Again, Social Security's average says Biden has a 40 % chance of being dead by 2028. You are saying it's likely higher. I'll now take it one more even more speculative step. I Googled Reagan and Alzheimer's to see what I could find. This is interesting: Tracking Discourse Complexity Preceding Alzheimer’s Disease Diagnosis: A Case Study Comparing the Press Conferences of Presidents Ronald Reagan and George Herbert Walker Bush So two big caveats. This study proves nothing about Reagan. And I am not a doctor. I have no special expertise at diagnosing anything. That said, this study suggests Reagan was in fact showing subtle signs of Alzheimer's by the end of his second term. Whereas Bush 41, who was never diagnosed with Alzheimer's, never showed similar early signs as POTUS. We know Reagan was diagnosed - at least officially - in 1994. We know he died in 2004 at the age of 93. And we also know this is an N of 1. But just going off this N of 1, it does suggest that Biden or Trump could have a long way to go before they are diagnosed, if they in fact are showing signs of dementia. It was a long time from 1989, when Reagan left office, to 2004, when he died. Historians would mostly agree that it did not prevent him from having a successful Presidency. Those two videos comparing Biden winning SC in 2020 and 2024 are scary. Given the obvious change in four years, I can only speculate what the picture in 2028 would be. But it for sure won't be better. Same with Trump. That said, if they are like Reagan - which is a huge if - I still think that if they actually die in office it will be of something else. If they don't die, they would have to be increasingly managed by staff. Which is not how it is supposed to work. I think we all agree that Team Biden is in fact that: a team. So the idea that Biden could be managed in his decline seems way less than optimum, but possible. The idea that Trump could be managed in his decline .................... well, we can just stop at the phrase "Trump could be managed." He can't be. Even his supporters know that. So an unhinged Trump with dementia is an even more frightening thought.

I don't disagree with anything you said. You're looking at it as you should: as a doctor, with precision. My point is broad and political. The most likely adverse medical outcome with either Biden or Trump is NOT what happens on the campaign. It's what happens after one of them is elected. And that problem is not likely to be dementia. It's likely to be death. Again, I'm not predicting it. But I would go with the Social Security numbers as in the ballpark. So I'll simply restate what I said above. One positive way to look at it is that there is less than a 50/50 shot they will die in office, in both cases. But with Biden it's not a whole lot under 50 %. And with Trump saying there is a 1 in 4 chance he'll die in office sounds realistic to me. Simply given Trump's weight I would say that offsets his slightly younger age. But, again, all that is totally speculative. BOTH are too old, neither should be the candidates, and it will be good in 2024 if we have younger people running. I'd be more than happy with Kamala v. Nikki. Pick a woman of color, conservative or liberal. And a hell of a lot younger. That would be a good place for America to be, in my mind. But not this. Someone posted these two videos of Biden, four years apart, on the evening of his South Carolina victory. It is the best compare and contrast I have seen so far. If I want to make excuses, I'd argue that in 2024 he was actually in a more informal setting, in Delaware, among friends. So he wasn't dressed for, or making, a political speech in the way he was in 2020. When he was in South Carolina, and had just come back from the political dead. Regardless, watching the videos it is very clear to see that one Biden looks and feels a lot older than the other. Neither seem demented, at least from my non-medical perspective. But one definitely looks and feels a lot older.

To date, Klemen Slakonja's interview and musical performance with Vlad has gotten 53+ million views. Who knew Vlad was so versatile? That compares to Tucker's 10.4 million views on You Tube. Maybe Tucker should have added some music???? You never heard of Klemen Slakonja? Nobody else has, either. What does it tell us that he gets 5 times as many YouTube views because he makes Putin look like an asshole to the entire world?

Nah, I wasn't burned. I certainly expect the worst from Murderous Vlad. And I found it amusing to watch two men make fools of themselves. Like, this is real journalism? The world really thinks of MV as this decent guy who has simply run out of kindnesses to bestow on people? It would make for great parody on Saturday Night Live. If criticism of Putin were allowed in Russia. Mostly it feels tragic. Because all this is about millions of Ukrainians and Russians being dead or displaced, thanks to your murderous sadist. I will tell you two things that do burn me. George W. Bush, 20 years ago. His pushing the Iraq War opened a Pandora's box that led to this kind of adventurism. America invading Iraq without real cause, other than lies, laid the groundwork for Putin to do something similar once he thought he had a chance to get away with it. That burns me. Arguably, one could also blame Bush for pushing the idea that Ukraine should join NATO. But Putin has actually made the best case for NATO in my lifetime. Ask Sweden and Finland about that. If anything, Putin makes W. look strategeric for trying to protect Ukrainians from a mass murdering sadist. Second, Republicans today burn me. That military aid should have gone to Ukraine last year. The EU figured it out, fortunately. And now Republicans looks like they are done with the bullshit and ready to put their money where their mouth is. But it is a global embarrassment that America looks unsteady. That said, again because of our tragic adventurism in Iraq, it's not an entirely bad thing that a lot of Americans are rethinking how much the US wants to be a warmonger. I hope Republicans remember this the next time Republicans want to invade some country. Why do you even care about Tucker's ratings? Have you actually convinced yourself somehow this is a sign that Putin is winning, or will win? The whole things smells of desperation to me. For sure with Tucker. He already lost the war when he was fired for cynically pushing Trump's lies and bullshit about a stolen election, which he clearly did not believe. So Tucker is desperate to stay relevant. And I'm sure Putin's PR on this is that some famous American journalist came to Russia to give your murderous sadist the respect he deserves. If this makes Vlad feel important, good for him. He'll win his election, of course. They don't allow real debate in Russia. But you know that already, @Moses. One other mistake Russia is making, perhaps, is that maybe you think you can change us. Is that the idea here? That would be a very American thing to do. For Vlad to decide he will use Tucker to somehow remake us in his image. And share Vlad's Russian values. America tried that on Russia, too. And democracy obviously failed in your case. I think America and most of the world got the memo. We're no longer trying to change you, and form real alliances. It's now back to just containing you. You can have your war economy for as long as you have Vlad, or longer. There are millions of Russian men who will unwillingly and unhappily be turned into fertilizer so Vlad and his klepto friends can be rich, powerful, and murderous. Through his invasion, he is teaching the world what Russian values are. Your country and people are hated. Russia will be hated and shunned for the rest of our lifetimes. China will buy your cheap oil and India will buy your weapons. They aren't stupid. But you will be hated and shunned. The whole thing with Tucker is just a joke. But enjoy it if it makes you somehow feel better.

Correct. Two people come to mind. David Axelrod, who is the Democrat with the most credibility who has publicly taken on Biden. Which resulted in Biden biting back. And Dean Phillips, who many Democrats call a traitor for recently pointing out on Twitter that ... ahem .... Kohl and Mitterand died ages ago. So the media seems to be playing the wrong game. There's all this speculation about how either Biden or Trump might bow out. It's all stupid horse race shit based on this Hail Mary pass notion that somehow Biden or Trump will NOT do exactly what they plan to do. There are some more thoughtful voices saying that ........... duh ............ unexpected health problems can easily happen to anyone in their 80's. A.B. Stoddard and Bill Kristol in Kristol's conversations series come to mind. So either Biden or Trump could just suddenly die any day now. Biden had a few close calls already as a much younger man. Technically, Trump did too with COVID. His first wife died at 73 from something as simple as falling down stairs. (Maybe that's why Trump walked slow and held the rail in the famous video.) The problem with this scenario is of course we can't game out either's completely unexpected death during the campaign. But if one of them is not alive in November 2024, that actually seems like the most likely scenario to me. Neither one will bow out. That's a media fantasy, I think. Trump may be convicted. But he'll still be running for President. Also correct. But I think the way that will play out is not which one is more dangerous as a candidate. It's which one is more dangerous as a second term President. That is what Americans will decide this Fall. We have been there and done this before. I'm not great at history. Someone smarter than me can list the sitting Presidents who were basically a basket case before their ultimate death. The most obvious example that comes to mind is FDR. Because his health was seriously failing at least as early as 1943. Arguably, he had it easier than Biden because he didn't start his campaign until Sept. 1944. But that was because he had to run World War II in the meantime. So, if America could get through that, we can probably get through Biden being re-elected as well. I don't think he looks any worse than this, which was FDR in 1944. So if you buy these assumptions, dementia is NOT the health problem we should be talking about, necessarily. Yes, you are right. Either may be demented. Even today. But they will still be President. And Biden and Trump are both proof that the aging process normally happens slowly. The five most likely causes of death for White men their age are: 1) heart disease, 2) cancer, 3) stroke, 4 ) COPD, 5) pneu/influenza. Dementia or Alzheimer's is not even on that list, at least as a cause of death. How likely is it either will die in office? Pretty likely, actually. Social Security actuaries say that at 82, on inauguration day, Biden has about 7 more years to live. He has an almost 40 % chance of dying in the next four years. Trump, at 78, would have an average lifespan of a whopping nine years left. He only has a 25 % chance of dying in the next four years. I guess one positive way to look at it is that odds are either would still be alive to complete a second term. Speaking of the dead, my former client and deceased friend Epigonos, who never posted here but was a regular on Bill's site, loved to say this: "We don't elect a President. We elect a gang." To the degree that people think that way in November, it means Biden will win. Biden has always been a team player. Politics is a team sport. And to survive and thrive in it for as long as Biden has, you have to be a pretty good team player. And it shows right now. Yes, maybe Biden is demented. But he has a team around him who covers his ass. Just like FDR and all the other Presidents who had health problems before him did. Trump is not a team player. And everyone knows it. It's why some of his cult loves him. He is NOT part of that whole mess. That helps explain why he was a one term President, I think. And why he will likely remain a one term President. If we have to be stuck with one old man who is demented, would you rather have the guy with the strong team? Or the guy whose team is always an unstable house of cards, even when he is at his best? Again, we have been here and done this before. In 2020 Americans decided to hire Biden and fire Trump. Because they felt Trump was too dangerous. So if the question is 2024 is which old man is more dangerous, odds are that the decision of 2020 won't change.

It's another thing Trump is unfairly maligned for. There is tremendous diversity in the MAGA base.

True. Life has been so unfair to Trump. But Nancy Pelosi - the real one - did nail what Trump is good at in that Newsweek interview I posted above. Happily, Pelosi was mostly wrong about something else she said: I think at the the time she said that, many thought Ron DeSantis might be that guy. Turns out he was even worse at strategery than W. So we're just stuck with Stinky again. And he's not a strategeric genius, either.

Thank you. That interview with Gen. Milley reminded me of another conversation he had with Nancy Pelosi. The real Nancy Pelosi. Not the one Trump gets confused about. This is another reason why most Americans won't rest easy with the idea that Trump, hater of democracy and breaker of cop bones, could have his finger back on the nuclear button. Nancy Pelosi Sought Assurances 'Maniac' Trump Couldn't Use Nukes After Election: Book

I loved it. Although it is not a feel good movie. The critics are all right. It is an emotionally evocative work about the enduring power of love. And the complications of that when you're a Gay man of a certain age. I also loved Red, White, and Royal Blue. And this is pretty much the opposite. RWRB speaks to young queers who want to and now can believe boy meets boy and they live in a fairy tale. All Of Us Strangers isn't about a fairy tale world. It's about the world we Gay men actually grew up in. Lots of discrimination, lots of AIDS, lots of death. Add some ghosts and it makes for one hell of a story. The Queer Kids Are All Right. And Now They’re Making Me Better. I don't know if that link will transfer, since someone posted it as a shared story from a New York Times reporter on a different site. It's a good read. In case the link doesn't work and you can't get it online, the phrase that really worked for me in that story about recent queer cinema is "emotional reparations." As in, a lot of recent LGBTQ film provides a form of emotional reparations for everything that we didn't necessarily get growing up. Like support, and understanding. I think RWRB and Heartstoppers are just sweet fairy tales. I took All Of Us Strangers, appropriately titled, as a form of emotional reparations for those of us who didn't grow up in a sweet Gay fairy tale. Fellow Travelers comes to mind as another recent and excellent example. The director and writer, Andrew Haigh, insists that the movie overall is a story about a Gay man accepting himself and overcoming obstacles to love. One could debate that, given the final plot twist. Haigh says he wanted to make a movie that made people think. But I think you settled the question for us, @unicorn. The fact that you can go see a movie like this WITH YOUR FIANCE (a man, I assume) settles the question. To quote the fairy tale heroes of Red, White, and Royal Blue, "We won." In real life, we got the happy ending. Congratulations! Even if Gay men like Andrew Scott's character in the movie, and Andrew Haigh in real life, paid an emotional price for it.

Hey, @Moses. You're a swell guy. Can I ask a favor? Speaker Johnson in increasingly tough spot on Ukraine Sad to say, my dear. But looks like we might have a second displaced Republican House Speaker in a row. And, no. Don't ask me to explain it. I'm a Democrat, and my Dad was a Reagan Republican. So how the fuck would I know? What with all this decency and good will in Russia, do you think maybe you could find Speaker Johnson a new home? 😉

And I have bad news for you, dear. I watched the interview. And poor Russia is stuck with an evil, lying prick who excels at turning Russian men into fertilizer in Ukraine. Poor things! If you take pride in the fact that people actually are concerned to know what an evil, lying, mass murderer like Putin is up to, then good for you. It could be worse for Russia. The US is stuck with Tucker Carlson, and the best economy in the world. 1 out of 2 ain't bad. 😉 At least you can get rid of Tucker. And speaking of getting rid of journalists, I thought the funniest part of the interview was when poor Tucker asked whether Vlad might see it in his heart to free Evan Gerschkovitch, the WSJ journalist Murderous Vlad detained as a political pawn. I'll quote MV directly: What a swell guy, that Murderous Vlad! And what great journalism on Tucker's part, digging the truth out or MV! And I am sure the millions of dead and displaced mothers and children of Ukraine would agree. Murderous Vlad appears to have run out of good will and decency. Although Vlad got one thing wrong. Ukraine is perfectly willing to "reciprocate" his good will and decency. Maybe that's why nobody wants to be Russian, or go to Russia. And Russia's wonderful economy is now built around sending its men to Ukraine to become fertilizer. Organized Tourism to Russia Drops by 90% in 2022 – Kommersant With all due respect to Tucker, I knew all these things already. I'll stick with the Wall Street Journal, I think. But I'm glad Vlad enjoyed his visit with Tucker. Oh, and me being me, have to make a final point, which the Wall Street Journal expressed accurately: Ukraine-Israel Aid Package Clears Major Hurdle in Senate Some GOP lawmakers join with Democrats to advance measure The vote was 2 to 1 for Ukraine, with 17 Republicans joining all Democrats. That happens to accurately reflect the 2 in 3 Americans who actually believe in standing by our principles, and our allies: Maybe when Tucker comes home he can interview our own evil, lying prick - Trump - about why he is so committed to undermining democracy, and brave people willing to die for it.

You're really going to be disappointed, aren't you? Anyhoo, Gov. Pelosi is calling her opponent, Trump, demented. And trying to push him out of the way, too. It ain't going so well. I'd assume the same with Biden. Except Dementia Joe doesn't have Gov. Pelosi running against him. And, besides, Trump can't defeat Biden. It's not possible. Ask Trump. Obama is still President.

You don't actually read, do you? You're going to be disappointed, aren't you?

From the Al Jazeera article on 2020: From the Fox story on 2022: No Democrat is claiming Hunt is a DEI House member, like Republicans are claiming Kamala is a DEI Veep. Yes, as a lifelong Democrat I'm proud of the fact that my party has been the leader (mostly) for racial and gender and LGBTQ equality for my whole life. But I take this as fruits of our victories. McCarthy knew the Republican Party could no longer be the party of White men. It's a work in progress, which has probably been set back by Trump. And I do think it is a good thing for America to be less polarized by race, gender, or sexual orientation.

Mostly. But I give them credit for this. US Republicans grow more diverse in newly won House seats Women and minorities predominate among Republican winners in 2020 House elections that trimmed Democratic control. House GOP majority younger, more diverse than it's been in years GOP ran historic number of female, African American and Hispanic candidates in 2022 This is probably giving Kevin McCarthy way too much credit. But he seemed to have this quaint idea that Republicans should focus more on recruiting female and Black and Hispanic and Asian conservatives. And less on breaking the bones of cops. Weird choices, I know. But this seemed to help McCarthy win House seats in 2020 and gain a slim majority in 2022. For that, they fired him. Why focus on building the future, when Trump wants to instead focus on the past? How could Nikki Haley (or was it Nancy Pelosi) make America great again? Loser! The plan for 2024 seems to be to make sure they stop Biden from doing anything, and call him demented. Same thing Pelosi is saying about Trump. 😉

I assume you mean the 2016 campaign. I was never thrilled with Hillary. And her Fall ads were mostly attack ads that did not worked as hoped. Whenever the gamble is that someone is unelectable (Reagan in 1980, Trump in 2016) and will be defeated if they are attacked, it simply has not worked. For the same reason, the idea that Biden is unelectable in 2024 because he is demented won't work, either. Especially if the alternative is Trump, as opposed to Haley. I found the 2020 campaign exciting. First, I was excited to get rid of Trump. Second, I think that race was about the future of the Democratic Party. But I would say that, of course, being a lifelong Democrat. It was more of a debate about hope and positive change than it was an attack ad to me. I do see both Biden and Trump as damaged goods. Biden did not look great tonight attacking a journalist for voicing how most voters, and even I think a majority of Democrats, feel about his age. I have an interesting running debate with one of my sisters-in-law that may be an irrelevant anecdote, or may help explain why Biden will win. Sorry in advance for being long-winded. In 2020 I was a fan boy of Elizabeth Warren. This sister-in-law is also a professor, so I thought she might like Warren. She didn't, at all. Her visceral reaction was negative. She liked Biden. When I asked her why, she couldn't really explain it. She's center/left. I think she probably liked the idea that Biden could win. And was more moderate than Sanders or Warren. I think a huge chunk of America felt that way. That really showed up on Super Tuesday, when Biden inexplicably won states he didn't even campaign or spend money in. Like Minnesota and Massachusetts. After Biden WON my sister-in-law reminded me of that conversation, where she couldn't really explain why she liked Biden. She said this is probably why she leaned toward Biden. He could win, and he'll be okay. Last Thanksgiving she made a point of saying how she really hopes Biden does not run again. Mostly because of the age thing. Being a bit of a bitch, I asked her what she was thinking in 2020. Because Biden seemed old then, too. But it's fair that in 2020 people were worried about 2020, not 2024. I get it. So I personally feel like I am stuck with the consequences of a choice my party made in 2020 I was never fully on board with. Now I feel I have no choice. I like Biden, and I mostly approve of his Presidency. But he is too old to be POTUS That said, he is still way better than Trump, who is also old and much scarier to me. There is no evidence in polling that dumping the incumbent for someone else would make it easier to beat Trump. The opposite. It would tear the party apart, most likely. Since the polls show Democrats are split about who that someone else might be. Whitmer is the only one who does a little bit better than Biden in polling against Trump. And even that's close. Newsom does no better, and Harris does worse in polls. Allan Lichtman, who has guessed every race for POTUS right since 1984, is saying loudly that dumping an incumbent and having a big party fight (like in 1980) is always a recipe for disaster. Stick with Biden if you want to win, is his message. So my guess is, in the end, the naysayers who Biden needs like my sister-in-law will fall in line. Right now they are telling pollsters maybe they like RFK or maybe they like someone else or maybe they won't vote. But the main reason why I think they'll fall in line is that the alternative is Trump. Literally, a little bit demented may be relatively better than a fascist who seems out of his mind. And is quite old, too, by the way. So 2024 will be all attack, all the time, in a way 2016 or 2020 or 2022 were not, I think. Trump and Biden both need to make the other look even worse. Every one of my nieces and nephews who are center or left think Biden is way too old. They can't wait for someone younger and better. So the good news about the negativity of 2024 is it probably does set up an election in 2028 that is about generational change. It's time. Most Presidents since 1992 have been Baby Boomers. Or older, in Biden's case.

You're right. People do have lots of concerns about the President: his leadership, his judgment, his temperament, his truthfulness, his emotional and mental state. That is why they fired him in 2020. But what's new? I thought this was a nice mildly race-baiting detail in the RNC attack on Dementia Joe on Twitter: Of course it's not enough to say Biden doesn't have the brains to be President anymore. They have to vaguely imply that Kamala, a Black woman, never had the brains to be President. And is only there because she's a Black woman. Former South Carolina Governor Nancy Pelosi, who is running for President against Trump, is apparently okay. 😉 Although Trump says Gov. Pelosi sucked at keeping the Capitol secure when he sent his mob over to break the bones of cops. Glad Trump is in charge of his facts and faculties! Meanwhile, Biden, Trump, and Harris are all viewed unfavorably by 55 % of Americans. Buckle up your seatbelts. 2024 is going to be a long and giant attack ad.

Obviously, that's a question for Kevin McCarthy! Or Matt Gaetz!

Obviously, that's a question for Mike Pence! While we are doing Bible study, I have a few other questions: 1. Where in the Bible does it say you should allow Trump thugs to break into Nancy Pelosi's home and crack her husbands skull open and then accuse him of being Gay? 2. Where in the Bible does it say you should allow Trump thugs to poop on Nancy Pelosi's office floor, even if they were apparently being held hostage on Jan. 6th by the cops they assaulted? 3. Where in the Bible does it say Trump's cultists should support such evil, reprehensible things?

Senators unveil long-awaited border deal It faces an uncertain vote in the Senate this week and even longer odds in the House. It would be more forgivable for Trump to say any compromise needs to be "perfect" or it isn't worth passing if he were simply the political gadfly he had been most of his life. But, as POTUS, he proved how bad he was at compromise. And getting any laws passed. Except for those deficit busting tax cuts for really rich people, like him. What makes this worse is it's pure political cynicism. Trump and his MAGA House-mates would rather see more fentanyl deaths and more border crossings than pass a bipartisan law to reduce the problem.

So much for MAGA's fake and cynical populism. Ted Cruz wants lawmakers to get security escorts through America’s airports Turns out there were "serious security threats" at the US Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, too. But Cruz doesn't want to talk about that with constituents waiting in lines at airports, does he? Cruz voted against a bipartisan bill that got the support of 68 US Senators to prevent another Jan. 6th from happening by closing the wormy loopholes Cruz himself wanted to use to steal an election. Even more despicably, Cruz plotted with MAGA cultist Maria Bartiromo about how a Republican appointed commission could "legally" steal an election Biden won by 7 million votes. If there is any Republican other than Trump who has created good reason for angry mobs to protest the cynicism and phoniness of MAGA populism, it's Ted Cruz. I can only pray that some day I run into him at an airport. So I can walk up to him and say, "You are a cynical man with no principles. Other than your own empowerment, and giving huge tax breaks to the rich guys who fund your cynical campaigns."

Thanks for breaking up my text. 😉 There's one other polling thing I wanted to post that I think is vaguely relevant. But I figured I was way over my verbosity quota already for one post. So here I am, back for more. The Most Popular Public Figures (Q4 2023) # 19, liked by 48 % of Americans #46, liked by 41 % of Americans Let me tell you how I got to this listing, before I tell you why it may help explain why Biden will beat Trump again. I was thinking of how similar Trump and Arnold Schwarzenegger are in important regards. #4, liked by 60 % of Americans In addition to both being Republicans, they have the rare distinction of having risen to the top in three different fields. Whereas most of us never get to the top in one. For Schwarzenegger it was bodybuilding, then entertainment, then politics. You could argue that is actually a step down each time. 😉 I tend to think the best time to be Arnie was when he was young and hot and unknown. And everything was ahead of him. Trump did close to the same thing: real estate, then entertainment, then politics. We can quibble over Trump's bankruptcies. But both men rose to the top despite obstacles. Arnie's biggest obstacle was a big waist in Career 1, and a funny voice in Career 2. He rose above that. Partly because he has always been good at people, and politics. Trump is mostly good at people and politics, too. He just proved that DeSantis is a rookie and introvert when it comes to people. Which is what politics is about. Now a bit about how they differ. Schwarzenegger is an immigrant. What I adore about him, as a Democrat, is his willingness to put politics aside and try to believe in what he thinks is best about America. Trump has none of that. He is a racist immigrant basher who consistently brings out the worst in America. That is what Trump, like his mentor Roy Cohn, excels at. Bringing out the worst in people. As Schwarzenegger himself argued in his great speech after Jan. 6th. He despises Trump and compares Jan. 6th to his experiences with pure evil as a boy in Nazi Austria. So what all that led me to is checking out polls on Arnie's popularity. Which I figured would be high. I was right. As a bonus, I found that poll above that actually compares Arnie, Biden, and Trump. Arnie is #4. Biden is #19, right next to Jill who is #21. Trump is #46, and actually below both his wife (#35) and his daughter (#41). People like Trump less than they like Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, AOC, Condoleezza Rice, or Ben Carson. I think that says a lot about the dynamics of this election. Being the leader of a cult is not the same as people actually liking you. In this poll, 48 % of Americans say they like Joe Biden. Only 41 % say they like Donald Trump. I think Biden gets to 48 % despite the fact that people don't particularly like what he has done on inflation and immigration. I think Trump tops out at 41 % because of what people see he stands for. Meanwhile, Arnie is liked by 60 % in this poll. Maybe that's largely because of his Hollywood background. But I think it's also because people respect what he stands for. All three have won the top prizes they were eligible for in electoral politics. If Arnie could run for POTUS, which he can't as immigrant, he'd probably kick the ass of either Biden or Trump. It is easier to win an election when at least 50 % of the people like you. I think this poll will factor in in the end. In Spring 1980 Jimmy Carter was kicking Ronald Reagan's ass in the polls. Even by late Spring, when John Anderson was in the race as an Independent, Carter consistently had a lead of 5 % or more in a three way race. Not unlike what Trump has now, when you include RFK Jr. We all know that didn't hold up in November 1980. People may have liked Carter. But they didn't like a 20 % misery index. Again, the misery index now is LOWER than when Biden took office. Trump created more misery, based on Reagan's misery index, and Biden has lowered the level of misery - as of today. Why would people want more misery from someone they don't really like? Most Americans DO NOT LIKE Donald Trump. Almost half of all Americans, including just over half of women, think he should be disqualified for sending out his mob to beat the shit out of cops and try to kill democracy. I think this helps explain why Arnie has always been a winner. And Trump only wins some of the time. Being a narcissistic racist rapist pig, he of course does not understand his limits. So he pushes himself too far, and loses. That is what he is doing right now. It explains why he will probably lose the election. People just won't vote for a raping liar who they don't even like. A few interesting side notes. Arnie, like Trump, got into trouble for being incapable of keeping his dick in his pants. In Arnie's case, it was a consensual relationship with a maid, which resulted in a love child. People - but not his ex-wife - seem to be willing to overlook that. In Trump's case, it would have been rape if he could actually maintain an erection while raping. People, especially women, may be less willing to overlook that. This poll also suggest that America is either not racist, or less racist. And we can thank Democrats for that. Of the top five most popular public figures, one is the Queen and another is Arnie, a Republican immigrant. So the three that were born in America are MLK, Barack Obama, and Michelle Obama. (Fact check: Obama was born in America.) The fact that three of the five most liked public figures are Black, and all are closely associated with the Democratic Party, says a lot of good things about America. So does the fact that a White immigrant who loves America was able to rise to the top of the Republican Party in his state. I'd like to think that the party of Lincoln will soon be the party of Nikki Haley and Tim Scott. But don't hold your breath. When it comes to trying to be less racist, there is no question that Democrats let MLK and the Obamas in. With mostly open arms. (Well, there was George Wallace, who at least asked for forgiveness.) The Obamas, even more than the Bidens, stand for the Democratic Party today. Don't hold your breath for Nikki Haley or Tim Scott. Most of the Republican Party is rejecting them for a guy that Arnie, a Republican, compares to a Nazi. This is why I think Trump is going to lose.

Hate to rain on the parade of Trump insults with a dose of reality. But that joke about Trump's pussy grabbing true self made me think of this: Inside Trump's Election A-Team: Lean, Mean and Largely Unseen All of that rings true to me. It should come as no surprise that (__ immigrant or ___ Gay or ___ leftist) baiting Republicans can do worse than surround themselves with a bunch of mostly effective Roy Cohns. Trump learned that himself a long time ago, of course. It can certainly work well for a while. Maybe even through a whole election campaign. The obvious problem with this strategy is that it doesn't change who the person at the top is. And the person at the top, Trump, is still a total fucking mess. Technically, he is more of a total fucking mess than ever. You want insurrection? He's your guy. You want rape? He's your guy. You want to see cops publicly be beaten savagely, so you can see what it looks like when the bones of cops break on national TV? Trump is your guy. He is a total fucking mess. And the guy who rapes and lies and leads mobs to break the bones of cops when he loses an election is still there. He is almost certainly going to be the Republican nominee. So Trump, who hates losing, has been disciplined enough to allow a disciplined team to form around him. Who no doubt COULD help him win. Which is pretty much what happened after he won in 2016 and formed a fairly impressive Cabinet. How long did that last? The thing about being a disciplined subordinate to Trump is that you can't change Trump from being Trump. It may not be so obvious now, when people are mostly focused on all the things they don't like about Joe Biden. But it will become obvious soon enough. When Trump opens his mouth, it becomes obvious. When Trump sends mobs to The Capitol to savagely beat cops because he needs to lie about being a loser, it becomes tragically obvious to the whole planet. Here's a poll number that is brand new that shocked me. And that I think is very bad news for Trump. I will quote the question and answer verbatim. 30. Trump Disqualified Due to 14th Amendment According to the 14th Amendment, no person shall be able to hold office if they have engaged in insurrection or rebellion. Do you think Donald Trump should or should not be disqualified from holding office as a result of the 14th Amendment? Should be disqualified: 47 % Should not be disqualified 38 % Not sure 15 % How do you win the Presidency when 47 % of America thinks you should be disqualified from even running? That's not going to go away. The pussy grabbing and lies and rape and cop beating and chaos are not going to go away. Even if Trump has a disciplined team around him. The good news to the MAGA minority in that poll is that, in theory, that leaves 53 % of America that COULD vote for Trump. But the truer number is probably closer to 38 % that actually WANT to vote for him. It's shocking that only 38 % of Americans are certain that the Republican nominee should not be disqualified. And 51 % of Americans with grabbable pussies (aka women) think he SHOULD be disqualified. How do you win the votes of people who don't like you because you grab pussies, brag about it, and send people off to beat cops when you lose elections? That problem won't go away. A good campaign team can try to hide it. Especially while people are still mostly focused on how inflation or immigration suck, and Biden is to blame But the insurrection part is not going to go away. And the evidence from 2022, when inflation was a lot higher, is that Americans are much more likely to overlook inflation than they are to overlook insurrection. This is why Trump is likely going to lose, regardless of what the polls now say. This is what many smart Republicans who have won many elections are saying. That Republicans will probably lose an election they could have won if they had nominated a candidate people actually like. They are the same types of Republicans who were saying a year ago that DeSantis would turn out to be a weak, unlikable candidate with a flawed core strategy. They were right. They are probably going to be right again.