stevenkesslar

I think the near consensus is that the Strait of Hormuz is Iran's new nuclear weapon. Although Robert Pape thinks they'll end up with actual nuclear weapons in a few years, too. Of course, the MAGA/Election Denier/War Loss Denier/Rape Denier/Factory Job Loss Denier crowd will have none of it. Pape thinks this will end like VietNam: the Democrats will defund it. If that is true, it suggests that the Gay Hanging theocrats will want Democrats to take over and starve the war. But we agree. They are all purpose theocrats. There is a possible upside here. Back in W.'s day Tony Blair said something that stuck with me. He said it is rare in history for all the puzzle pieces to be thrown up in the air. When they land again it gives leaders a chance to sort them out differently. That may not be verbatim. But something like that. At the time I marveled at what a total ass kisser he was, making a strategic disaster seem like some kind of historical gift. But this could be such a thing, if we are all lucky. It gets the US out of the Mideast Forever War business, hopefully. If the Iranians are as tough ass as they can be with Trump, I think it sets Democrats up to eventually give as little as possible to Iran to set up at least some kind of precarious order. Coalitions will change. On balance, the US has already lost strategic power and will lose more. But given that we have proved repeatedly that we use power stupidly, when W and Trump are in power especially, that is not a bad thing. The thing Trump is saying that is true is that the Iranian economy is wrecked. So if there is a war between the part of the US that is MAGA stupid, and the part of Iran that is zealots who wants Holy War, great. Let them keep trying to destroy each other. Maybe the dipshit leaders will all assassinate each other. Now wouldn't that just suck? We'll all pay a price for it, of course. But the idea that Trump and Iran's zealot leaders are both getting weaker is not necessarily a bad thing. Oh, and let's not forget the Genocide Jew. Although even if the Genocide Jew goes, a majority of voters in Israel do seem hellbent on their genocide. Any candidate that has a chance of winning opposes a two state solution, which a strong majority of Americans favor. There is only one downside. If things get bad enough, Trump will turn our stupid barking dog into Trump Steaks to feed the troops. I'd miss the poor stupid yapping thing.

It pains me to see those two images side by side. It made me think, "She'd never suck Trump's 10 inch cock, would she?" Then I snapped out of it, and realized Trump doesn't have a 10 inch cock. Melania is there for the money, not the meat. Plus Iran is crushing his tiny testicles. Really he has very little to offer. Zohran is clearly the better choice. Jew or not, he'll make you feel at home and appreciated, Sis.

I wasn't suggesting that. Although the way I wrote it was unclear. My point is that Kamala as Veep and Newsom as Guv are the most experienced. I was not suggesting they would end up on a ticket together. And the nation is not sold on Newsom, either. The polls have been consistent. She's # 1, he's # 2, and Pete is #3. They are the three that consistently crack double digits. I can easily see how any of those three win the nomination. AOC is #4, sometimes cracking double digits. I hope she runs instead of Bernie, so that wing of the party has a platform. But I can't see her winning. If I make the most optimistic assumptions about the economy - like this is the new Roaring 20's - the trite historical analogy is that JD Vance wins in 2028. And he is the new Herbert Hoover left holding the bag. I don't think that scenario is likely. More likely is that the shit has hit the fan by 2028, and the stock market and economy have both tanked. Lots of Americans of course feel like we are in a recession already, thanks to the generosity of the billionaires. What Newsom has going for him is lots of experience actually running an economy. And managing the split in a big state between progressives and traditional liberals, who are now kind of the moderates. While Harris has the plurality of the base, she has never really done either. Michigan is a great example. You can blame it on Biden, not her. But in Fall 2024 she could not unify Michigan enough to win the state. And I don't think she ever closed the deal on how she was the better steward for the economy. Arguably, Newsom has. At least in California. They tried to recall him and got nowhere. The rise of Democrats in California was largely due to what I'd call traditional liberal women. Feinstein, Pelosi, Boxer, Harris. Feinstein and Boxer epitomized the Year of the Woman in 1992. Which now seems minor by comparison. The Governor's office was a safe space for White men like Davis, Brown, and Newsom. Once Becerra wins it will be all men again. And two of them will be Latino men. If the goal was to build a made-in-the-lab ideal Democrat, I think there is a great argument that a Latino male would be the ideal. I thought Ruben Gallego was the one who best matched that idea. But he has stumbled around being too palsy with Eric Swalwell, and having some festering handsy whispering of his own. The most likely Latino male that could be POTUS is 2029 is Marco Rubio. AOC is of course Latina. But like I said if she runs I think she will be like Bernie 2016 and 2020. She can't get a majority in a Democratic primary. El-Sayed was a turning point, I think. Like Pete said, right now all eyes are on Michigan. The fact that someone that progressive - abolish ICE! Israeli genocide! - could win the primary in a swing state definitely shows things are changing. And now the question is just how badly Iran wants to crush Trump's worthless rapey testicles before the election. The sorry piece of shit will limp into the midterms with fat ankles and crushed balls and a stupid barking dog rooting for dead children with AIDS in Asia. It's gonna be messy, and tragic, and exciting.

I wonder if Gavin Newsom will be the next POTUS, and Xavier Becerra will be the next Gray Davis. The same factor could drive both: recession, AI bubble collapse, bad Forever War. Bad times somewhere in the ballpark of 2008. In that scenario, Becerra will have been Governor for two years. And he would own it. If I had to bet today, I would bet that after a decade of declining 80 year olds as POTUS (not to mention a declining America) voters will want someone younger. That said, Newsom and Harris as Guv and Veep are the most experienced. Will voters put age or experience first? Who knows? Will Trump actually try to go for a third term? Who knows? But I digress. Nothing suggests Becerra will be a beloved Governor. Ronald Reagan, Jerry Brown, Arnold Schwarzenegger, and Gavin Newsom were all either movie stars or political icons by the time they ran for Governor. Probably the best case for Becerra is he is a Democratic Pete Wilson. Wilson climbed through the ranks as a competent bureaucrat and politician at a time when California was kind of a purple state. Becerra could do eight years of that in blue state California, perhaps.

The interesting question is: who would replace him? Dick Durbin is the Whip, and he is retiring. Amy Klobuchar is the titular #3 and she'll be Governor. I don't she loses to the Crazy Pillow Guy. I'd vote for Elizabeth Warren. She ain't exactly young, either, though. Hakeem Jeffries ain't going away. So she would be a left-of-center offset to him. She is good at small donor fundraising. And she is a team player. I think Democrats will do better in 2028 if they nominate what Democrats would call a "moderate," and Republicans would call a "communist." That's not my preference. That's just math. Moderates outnumber liberals in primaries, and general elections. And someone younger would help. Age order for leading POTUS candidates is AOC 36, Ossoff 39, Buttigieg 44, Shapiro 53, Newsom 58, Harris 61, Sanders 84. It will be interesting, if Democrats are lucky enough to have the majority. In theory, Schumer did his job well if El-Sayed and Troy Jackson are part of a Senate Democratic majority. Both men basically said Chuck's not their guy. Talarico has been noncommital, and deflected. Will they be the ones who fire him? That three minute interview is a great example of how on message El-Sayed is. And I love how he pivots at the end from Schumer to RFK, Jr. It is kind of amazing. I can remember meetings about bank redlining with Al D'Amato. Chuck Schumer is no Al D'Amato. The idea that Chuck Schumer is the new Al D'Amato, and AOC is how we move New York to the left, is kind of amazing. Same for Mamdani. Fucking Boomers! Although, in truth, my Sister In Cock has always been the type of whore who has gone for younger men. And their penis.

Well, pot. Meet kettle. For a country that is famous for coming up with smart and peaceful solutions, I might have expected better than this. In an act of true American altruism, I will be flying to Calgary this week to see if I can negotiate a Peas Full Solution. Clearly, Americans are good at peace deals. And peace, in general. 🤔 And the solution to this one seems remarkably simple. Can't they just rename the province Canadumb? 😉 And speaking of names, and penises. (Sorry, Jon, I just can't let it go.) While I don't talk about penises with my Canadian sister-in-law, she does talk about vaginas. She did live and teach school in Regina for years. And she said they really do pronounce it like Vagina. I had to think aboat that for a while.

Which is why I will always love you, and be jealous of you, Sis.. Even if you suck at math. And we all know Ossoff is a Jew with a fake penis, anyway.

From Truth Social: From Reality: From Forbes: More gold! Less health care! More dead children with HIV in Africa and Asia. More tax subsidies for Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos! Bark, dog, bark!

Jeff Bezos’ Amazon Received Almost 10 Percent of Corporate Tax Subsidies Last Year Oh my darling beloved definitely much younger and prettier and more well hung Dearest And Darlingest Sister In Cock. How can I put this delicately? Well. Here goes. You always sucked at math. Except when it came to inches, of course. 😉

I already made my views clear. This is the part of that poll that I find most interesting. I think it's the same with things like "defund the police." Very nuanced perspectives on very complicated issues. And the filter I run it through is the line I cited above by some liberal Black civil rights leader: "Many Blacks are conservative, and would vote Republican if the party wasn't so damn racist." So in Florida we will very likely have a Black Republican Guv, first in the nation, who Blacks in Florida overwhelmingly vote against. The questions to me are: Who are you fighting for? What are you fighting for? I think there is an excellent argument that Tim Scott was fighting for a more inclusive (dare I say DEI?) Republican Party, knowing many Blacks hold moderate to conservative views. Had he gained traction in his race for POTUS in 2020 and won, things would be very different. The fact that Tim Scott got nowhere, and that in fact Trump decimated the short list of DEI-type things Tim Scott fought for, says a lot to me.

Communist Jew hater! Poll: Jewish Americans view Mamdani more favorably than Netanyahu Zohran Mamdani's parents are Mahmood Mamdani, a prominent academic and author, and Mira Nair, an acclaimed, Academy Award-nominated filmmaker. Both were born in India

That photo was posted by Trump on "Truth" Social. El Sayed's wife is a psychiatrist whose parents come from India. JD Vance's wife is a lawyer whose parents come from India. Trump's wife is an immigrant who opposes bullying on social media. Sing it, Neil. There's still hope.

Quite, You always think with your mouth full. And yet, somehow, you never use your teeth. I've been jealous of that skill my whole life.

It's more fun to watch stupid shit when the guy saying it is cute. Iran makes dramatic new demands around Strait of Hormuz And don't worry. It's not your fault. And stupid yapping dogs don't even need White Castle sliders for relief. But Trump will probably eat half a dozen to get over it. loser /ˈlo͞ozər/ A loser is a person, team, or thing that does not win a game, race, or contest. Core Definitions In a Contest: A player or team defeated in a game, match, or competition. Habitual Failure: An informal term for someone who struggles to succeed in jobs, relationships, or life goals.

Oddly, I don't talk about penises with her. It's not that she's Canadian. It's that she's my sister-in-law. If I were Straight, it could make a decent porn movie I guess. 🙄

It'll be okay, Sis. I think you need a good stiff drink and some comfort food. But don't eat too much.

I heard fact loss under Republican Presidents is normal. Is the same true under Canada's nasty leadership? And here's a concerning fact. I called my Canadian sister-in-law (who actually lives in the US) about Thanksgiving plans yesterday. She knows I am a political whore, whereas she wisely focuses on hockey, mostly. She wanted a brief analysis of what the fuck is happening, since she was headed to a wedding in Vancouver chock full of Canadians who live in Canada. Some of whom know me and trust me. Ugh! Is the tide turning? I hope so, I said. Will the Democrats take the House? Almost certain, most pundits say. Will the Democrats take the Senate? 50/50, say the pundits. We even talked about whether the Democrats can get their shit together and elect some younger more moderate candidate like Buttigieg or Ossoff in 2028. I forgot to mention that I have been spending quite a lot of time on the internet discussing Jon Ossoff's penis recently. Shouldn't it be concerning that Canadians rely on people like me for information? Fact.

Trump vows to hunt down leakers who revealed missile shortage President seeks jail sentences for culprits while insisting US has ‘massive amounts’ of munitions Apparently Trump and Patriot Pete even clashed about this at Camp David. Hope they had makeup sex! But I was concerned for your well being, Sis. I thought maybe they'd haul your ass before a Committee like Fauci and make false accusations. Then I realized you have an alibi. You can't say much when your mouth is full. Although, given what you say about Zohran's ample loads, I guess your mouth could have been leaking. Anyhoo, I guess all's well that ends well. POTUS can burn lots more Iranian girls to death, lie about it, and still have plenty left to end Iranian civilization. And, by all accounts, Zohran has far more than you need. Seems like America Is Great Again. No doubt soon Canada and Greenland will be begging to join our bliss.

After all these kindler and gentler things Senator Hawley has done for our community, as documented below, shouldn't we be extending our warmth and kindness to him in return? He has lost the love of his life, another deeply humane and truthful Republican champion of our rights and equalities. Josh Hawley Lindsey Graham

Correct. It is a strange thing. Harris was often accused of being the DEI Vice President, and therefore a DEI Presidential candidate. Republicans are not calling Donalds a DEI Gubernatorial candidate. So you have a Black man who will make history in Florida because Republicans will support him, but Blacks won't. That's not a judgment, positive or negative. As you point out, it's a fact. My point is that Sen. Tim Scott and Gov. Byron Donalds would not be possible in Strom Thurmond's Democratic Party, or Strom Thurmond's Republican Party. My own view is that we are a long way from the idea that what matters is the content of your character, not the color of your skin. Republicans under Trump seem like they could care less about the content of your character, period. But the color of your skin used to be a hard barrier. Not only to be Guv or Senator. Simply to vote. Now it's not. I've said this many times, and I should repeat it. I view this as a Democratic victory. Kevin McCarthy, when he was House Speaker, was very blunt about this. In 2019 at the SOTU he looked around. Republicans were a minority party. And if you looked around, it was almost all White men. Democrats were a sea of color. He says he did the math and figured out Republicans had to do a better job of reaching out to, and electing, House members who were not White men. And they have. So it's a Democratic victory in the sense that we Democrats made the Republican Party look like the party of White men. And some of them, at least, decided that's not what they wanted to be. Like I said, I think Trump himself moved us back on the issue of race, not forward. It is the party of Whites under him, who actively work against the interests of Blacks, I'd argue. If most Blacks see it that way, sounds like my perceptions align with reality. The person I'd give the most credit to for trying is former RNC chair Michael Steele, who is persona non grata now. He calls Trump's party a "zombie party" that will fold as soon as the Democrats get their shit together. But he was the one who, in the wake of Obama, pushed for diversity in the Republican Party. Nikki Haley and Tim Scott were elected in 2010 during Steele's tenure. And he touted them as a Republican version of DEI, which is now discredited. Haley then appointed House member Scott to the Senate when Jim DeMint resigned. Young Black voters are becoming more conservative than their parents. Here's why The thing I'd point to in that article is that only 1 in 10 of the oldest Blacks view the Republican Party as welcoming. But half of younger Blacks do. Again, I view that in part as a victory of Democrats. Obama scared the shit out of Republicans. And I think older Blacks and younger Blacks are both right. A party with Strom Thurmond as Senator is not the same as a party with Tim Scott as Senator. I don't follow it all that closely. But I think Trump pretty much has trashed Tim Scott's efforts to come up with specific race-based efforts, like helping minority-owned businesses. Some Black civil rights leader whose name I don't recall said something like this: "Lots of Blacks are conservatives. They'd vote Republican a lot more if the Republican Party wasn't so damn racist." Polls consistently show that, right or wrong, Americans are moving away from race-based criteria. Most Americans support Supreme Court's ending of affirmative action, poll finds Black Americans were most divided in their responses, while white Americans most strongly supported the measure. If the DSA is smart, THAT should be their rallying cry. Not some of the nonsense that turns me off, like getting rid of the US Senate. Focus on building an America where all poor people and all working class people get help climbing the ladder. What we have under Trump is crumbs like no tax on tips to workers while Elon Musk is flooded with tax cuts and government contracts.

"We just showed them the Michigan way. And that's what we're gonna do in November when we beat Mike Rogers."

Hassan says he is Christian. That's the funny and sad thing. I know nothing about the guy. But it does seem like it boiled down to what his name sounds like. And now for an opposing point of view. This whole interview shows how on message El-Sayed is. But what he says that I timestamped at 17:40 is really an election winner. And, in the spirt of the open-minded and big-hearted America we are building: There have only been three Black Governors in US history. He would be the fourth, if he wins the Florida race. Which the polls say he will, with Trump's help. He will be the first Black Republican Governor. I've followed his career enough to be be able to make a few good guesses. Donalds cracked a pretty simple code. If you compliment Trump and are obedient and loyal, he's on your side. Until you give him a reason to throw you under the bus. If you want a deeper dive, listen to what Donalds told the folks at Breakfast Club about Jan. 6th. Total Trump bullshit, in my mind. But definitely a loyal guy. Second, Donalds is running against the guy many presume DeSantis wanted as his heir. So it's another way for Trump to stick it to DeSantis. Tim Scott said he is a Republican Senator from South Carolina due to a "change of the Southern heart." I take him at his word. You don't get to be a Republican Senator unless a lot of Republicans vote for you. I would go back to what El-Sayed said. I think this is all good news for America. It's two steps forward, one step back. I see Trump much more of a step back on race. I think people like Tim Scott and Byron Donalds are rising as much despite him, as because of him. What happened to Hassan does say something about the White Republican base. And for lots of reasons, as someone from the North, it makes sense to me that a Black Republican would actually have a harder time in the North than the South. King said he thought he knew racism pretty well. And then he got to Chicago and Mayor Daley. While there's not a lot of data about it, I think that Blacks are the one race in America who are slightly more likely to be Republican if they are college-educated, and younger. Donalds is a poster child for that. And it makes sense. When Jim Clyburn was a young man, Democrat Strom Thurmond left the Democratic Party because it supported Black civil rights and was opening up to leaders like Clyburn. The same Black young man in South Carolina today has a Black Republican US Senator. Hopefully a young Muslim man in Michigan will soon have the same symbol of diversity, equity, and inclusion. Oh. That's right. DEI is a four letter word in Trump's America.

I did check with Tom. He said be patient, have rizz, and keep your mouth full. 🤔 Sometimes it just happens naturally. No. I didn't provide public service, Sis. I could never do that to Zendaya.

No spoilers. But inquiring minds do want to know. Who will save us? No, Tom! Nice try. But it's the wrong movie. Next time, read the book.