stevenkesslar

Have to admit I am a bit disappointed, Sis. The AI is fine. I was just really looking forward to a sequel to Red White & Royal Blue. I didn't realize it was going to be Red White & Genocide.

Trump’s trade war sparks broad backlash The insolent pig Trump is deeply stupid and deeply cruel. He is going to betray and hurt lots of people who voted for him because he is a venal narcissistic asshole. The stupid insolent pig and traitor promised to lower prices. Instead he is raising them.

The insolent pig Trump is a traitor. Veterans cuts spark GOP backlash on Capitol Hill The insolent pig is a traitor. Trump is betraying everything the nation stands for and fought fought for as he backs Genocide Man. Veterans are being stabbed in the back by this incompetent traitor.

You're funny. First, by Trump standards, I thought it was a good speech. One Republican strategist said Trump seemed relaxed and on a good vibe. I'd agree. But .......... This is a bit like elections in Russia ........................ RIGGED! And you are like Putin's liars in Russia. You leave out any facts that doesn't fit your lies and bullshit. It makes complete sense that Trump has now slipped into net disapproval after a bit more than a month. Even though he gave a speech his supporters loved. Of course when most of the people who watch the speech are Republicans, or "Independents" who use that word to say, "I'm for Trump, but don't want to be held accountable for it," that means most people watching the speech will approve of it. But, again, Trump was Trump at his best ............... entertaining, and even more long winded than me. You of course noticed Trump DID NOT talk about foreign policy much. Nor did he whine about everything his pal Vlad and him have been through. He knows people completely disagree with him on that. Even within his own party.

Facts ... facts .... I know. Bullets work better in Genocide World. Here's another new poll that shows even worse results for Genocide Man, and his loyal insolent pig Trump. No wonder Trump suddenly forgot he called Zelenskyy a dictator. Report: Americans Agree - Russia is Responsible for the War

I almost cried when I saw that tonight. For the first time, Trump has net disapproval. The poor guy is slowing down. It took him a month longer to get to this point than when first blew his job in 2017. And on a night when he brought down the house with his wit, charm, and searing intelligence, no less! It is so unfair. He is so perfect. And, speaking of perfect, I was thinking @Barknaway has been doing a perfect job of spreading pro-Trump hate, lies, and ignorance. How could his strategy of plastering this website with hate, lies, and ignorance possibly have not worked? It's so unfair. He's the smartest impulsively reacting dog since Pavlov was around. I want to lend a hand, and I think we all should. I propose that we now give @Barknaway up to 5 treats a day, for every 100 videos he posts. i don't think 500 videos a day is asking too much. I have no idea how many he has posts, since everyone ignores them. So obviously we need more. I also think we need to combat a certain intellectual laziness in his scattershot approach, and focus him on the things we know work best: So: Two extra treats a day for saying anything hateful or wrong about trans children. One extra treat a day for saying anything hateful or wrong about anyone LGBTQ. Three extra treats for saying anything hateful or wrong about undocumented immigrants. (I'm already adding three treats for you saying that the measles outbreak in Texas was probably caused by immigrant children.) Can anyone else think of particularly hateful or ignorant things we want to give @Barknaway extra treats for? And, @Barknaway, could you be a pal and start a post that records how many videos you post every day? No one pays attention, or watches them. But we would like to know how to probably reward you. We deeply regret your failure. And we'd like to work with you to turn this around. Just like JD Vance is Ukraine's strongest ally, and will do anything for them.

This poll shows 44/51 approval, for -7 net disapproval of Trump's leadership. The insolent pig is loyal to Putin, not the US or democracy. The insolent pig is a traitor. The more he tries to shove Genocide Man down America's throat, the more resistance the insolent pro-Putin pig will get.

The loyal piglet sounds like a warmonger. The loyal piglet Vance is loyal to Trump, who is loyal to Putin and authoritarianism. The loyal piglet is not for peace. The loyal piglet is also incredibly stupid. Maybe Trump only wanted someone stupider than him for his # 2 The loyal piglet disgusts me. When he is not busy destroying century old alliances built out of wars his whining ass never fought in, he is attacking Zelenskyy for supposedly not wanting peace. The sadistic and stupid logic of the loyal piglet is that Ukraine is the aggressor, and Putin is the peacemaker. Ukrainians who want security guarantees that a genocidal monster won't attack them again are simply against peace. What a sadist. This is insanely cruel to Ukraine. It is as if the traitorous stupid piglet wants to leave Ukraine as exposed as possible. How can the traitorous stupid piglet be against peacekeepers? The stupid traitorous piglet is a nightmare for Ukraine and peace, and a gift to Putin. The loyal piglet is stupid. And he has to think Ukrainians are really stupid to believe a line like that. It just shows what a stupid and horrible leader the loyal piglet would be. Trump just called Ukraine's leader a dictator. He blamed Ukraine for starting the invasion. He is taking Putin's side. He just announced he is freezing weapons delivery. The tough guys in the Republican Party are having verbal schizophrenia publicly agreeing with everything Zelenskyy says about Putin, and yet blaming him for saying it. And now the loyal piglet says you don't need Europe for security guarantees. Even though Trump said he wants Europe to handle security guarantees, since he sides with Putin. You just need us. And more vague and empty promises. Right, JD. Thanks for adding insult to injury. You just stabbed Ukraine in the back. And now your girly man ass is insulting them, and Europe as well. Vance is not only wrong, wrong, wrong. He is stupid. And a sadist. He is an embarrassment to the United State of America.

Trump halts aid to Ukraine The minerals deal is still on the table. So are deals with Russia. No shit! How do you figure? 😉 I assume the insolent pig's latest outburst is based on not liking the fact that leaders in Germany and France are actually calling him out for his betrayal of Ukraine and Europe. The thing that is nice about Trump is you really don't have to guess. He's just upfront in his recklessness, stupidity, and retribution. He is like a pissed off child. So it seems about 99 % clear that Ukraine will not get security guarantees from Trump. And that the insolent pig will do everything he can to ally with Putin. Despite the fact that only 4 % of Americans actually sympathize more with Putin on this issue, as shown in multiple polls. And, left to his own resources, at this point it is more than a reasonable guess that Trump will happily throw the security interests of both Ukraine and Europe under the bus. The fact that a pro-US conservative German leader is calling Trump out almost assures that is how Europe sees it. That's a recent Jan. 2025 poll on how people feel about pardoning the J6ers. I posted that because this is in the same ballpark. In my view, pardoning Putin for genocide is much worse than pardoning the J6ers for an attack on cops, and a peaceful transfer of power in a democracy. But both basically involve MAGA authoritarian followers being willing to say whatever their leader says is the truth. If Putin is the peacemaker, not the aggressor, than Trump must be right. And Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson must be wrong, too. But we'll pardon him, too. For now. That is how Trump and his loyal followers roll. Ian Bremmer argued in that article about that European leaders better pander to Trump quick, if they want to avoid a "full rapprochement" between "the Americans and Russians". I'm pretty sure Starmer and Macron and Merz will dance that dance soon. If only to say they gave it a whirl. But Trump has made it as clear as he can that he and Putin are allies. They share an aligned "vision" - to quote his pals in Russia. And that is the way it is. What's not to like about authoritarianism? That poll above is probably a good guess of how many Americans will go along with it.

It's better you just post videos, @Barknaway. Because when you open your mouth, you just spout ignorance and hate and stupidity. Yup, blame everything on immigrants. I'm stupid. I'm a hater. Blame the fucking immigrants! I have no facts. I just post lie after lie after lie after lie every day. But fuck! I'm MAGA now. I can say any ignorant thing I want and it has to be true. One of many reasons I stopped watching your videos is that in a number of them somewhat honest posters admit this is just some shit I read on the internet. I have no idea whether it is true or not. But pass it along. You folks prize ignorance like a badge of honor. There is an obvious common denominator here. It is not immigrant status. It is vaccination status. The dead American child, and most of the children affected, have that in common. Not vaccinated. Texas is not releasing the immigration status of the children, or their names. I think they think the important fact here is that they're not vaccinated. But what do health experts know? The non-ignorant bright idea here is that vaccinated children likely won't catch or spread measles from other kids, whether they are immigrants or not. And they won't die. And by the way, Trump is POTUS now. And measles spreads quickly. So this is on Trump. Since MAGA blamed Biden for the death of anyone an immigrant killed, if you think this may have been because of an immigrant - with no proof - then you should blame Trump for the child's death. If some immigrant child crossed the border with measles and spread it, that had to have happened while Trump was POTUS. More likely, it is a direct result of the lack of vaccination. But that would mean Trump is accountable. We can't have that! Facts and bright ideas just get in the way of your ignorance and hate campaign. So go back to your videos. You have a lot of work to do. Trump is getting less popular by the day. Ever wonder why? IGNORANT LIAR

No one knows for sure. But the most likely explanation for the insolent pig's outburst is that he wanted a political win last Friday. If that is true, he should be pissed at his own Vice President and his own temper for fucking that up. Is it possible the insolent pig and his recklessness is his own worst enemy? That would sure be a shocker, wouldn't it? 🤪 All Trump did is expose that his stupid and vain brain sucks at making deals. I think it is better for the world and Ukraine and Europe if they just make deals around Trump, for a while. The ego and stupidity of the insolent pig can be manipulated to bring him on board later. What a humiliating embarrassment that this vain insolent pig is our leader!

Trump and Zelenskyy’s White House clash a ‘deliberate escalation’ by US, says Germany’s Merz U.S. president’s rage was pre-planned, likely next chancellor says. The insolent pig Trump is a traitor. The insolent pig Trump is stupid and vain. Thanks to his stupidity and vanity and ego and recklessness, he is destroying our alliances with Europe. The insolent pig Trump is breaking America.

Trump’s ‘indecency’ endangers transatlantic alliance: French PM François Bayrou calls U.S. president’s treatment of Zelenskyy “a staggering scene marked by brutality.” The insolent pig Trump is a traitor. The insolent pig Trump is stupid and vain. Thanks to his stupidity and vanity and ego and recklessness, he is destroying our alliances with Europe. The insolent pig Trump is breaking America.

I know I am in full rant mode with long posts. But I am learning a lot of new things. And I assume everyone who is not interested just ignores what I post. Top Republicans say they want Ukraine deal 'back on track' That was completely predictable. Again, Mike Johnson spoke for most Americans when he said we want Putin to be defeated. But most Americans are sober, and realize for now he can't be. Sorry we feel that way. Couldn't happen to a nicer genocide maker. I don't think JD Vance speaks for most Republican Senators. I think most of them want the US to keep arming Ukraine. They probably also want to offer Zelenskyy the security guarantees he wants. But they know they have to blow smoke up Trump's ass constantly. In Trump 1.0, the grown ups in the room were in the White House. One very clear indicator that the insolent pig has the brain of a child seeking retribution is that he made sure all the people he appointed are loyal to him. But I think this proves that he just can't do that with Republicans in the Senate and House. Johnson will blow smoke up Trump's ass, and then make pro-Ukraine deals. Thune seems to not even have to bother blowing smoke up Trump's ass. He just does what the majority of Republican Senators want. Which is his job. This confirms that the majority of Republican Senators want to defend Ukraine. Despite Trump's affection for Genocide Man, his mafia crony. If I had to bet, I'd bet that statement is wishful thinking. Trump runs the administrative branch. And he wants it his way. There is a silver lining on that cloud. In theory, Trump can keep Putin defanged for four years. Meanwhile, the EU can get organized around its own defense against Putin. If a Democrat wins in 2028, the bipartisan consensus is back on track. That is far from perfect. But it is probably good enough. I haven't read much about Zaluzhnyi until you mentioned him. But I can see lots of advantages in him beating Zelenskyy in an election. 1. If there is an election, it means there is at least some kind of fragile truce. 2. As you said, he is wildly popular. Ukrainians love him. 3. He is pro-NATO and effective at killing Russians, by all accounts. Vlad does not like him. NATO and US hawks love him. 4. He dresses better than Zelenskyy. Hopefully, he can tell stories about how Trump, in every war he has fought in, felled thousands of enemies with his erect penis alone. He will tell Trump stories about how Ukrainians read books to their children about how wise and powerful Trump is. And how handsome. If only Trump could be King of Ukraine! The fourth part may be the most important to Ukraine's future, sadly. That is how stupid and narcissistic our insolent pig is. And now we are stuck with him.

You're funny. You are such a lying hypocrite. This is rich coming from you. Getting Zaluzhny, a popular general, is like stepping out of the frying pan into the fire for Putin. He is pro-NATO, as that anecdote above explains. If you are looking for another corrupt Friend Of Vlad's this guy is not who you want. Vlad knows that, which is probably why Vlad put him on a "wanted" list. Too bad he can't kill him, like he does all his domestic political opponents. The main reason Ukraine can't have an election now is also thanks to Vlad. They are in a war. I'm sure Zelenskyy, like any politician, would prefer to win any election he is in. But he did appoint and promote Zaluzhny. What this makes obvious is that Vlad has also made Ukraine a very militarist society. They have to be, because their lives and existence are on the line. I don't know Ukraine at all. But it might be a bit like the US in the 1950s, when we had a very popular General as President. I don't think this is good for Russia. On a similar note, I read this today: I think that is a great summary of the basic conflict, and the motivations. I am pretty certain Zelenskyy is speaking genuinely from the heart. Ukraine hates Putin. Ukraine hates Russia. The only good Russians are dead Russians. And Ukrainians have killed a lot of them. I don't think this is what Putin had in mind when he invaded. I don't think Ukraine was a CIA-designed trap for Putin. It is obvious how Ukrainians feel without any help from the CIA. But if you want to to believe this was a CIA trap, Putin was a fool to walk into it. I will repeat the basic principle of Brzezinski, which played out exactly as he hoped in Afghanistan for the USSR, and then for the US. It played out the same way for Poland, his beloved homeland, as well as the rest of the Warsaw Pact. His point was that even when Poles more or less accepted the USSR as an inevitable reality, and didn't mind it all that actively, it was still only a matter of time. It was easy to pick the threads of the alliance apart, with zero actual weapons. Sending in a beloved Polish Pope really put that on steroids. In Ukraine, you have deep and active and daily hate of Russians. I've been in Europe a lot, and know that many Europeans know more about the US political system than Americans do. So I'm guessing many Ukrainians know that this is a war in the US between two political parties. And even between two factions in the Republican Party. It will not last forever. But what will last forever, or at least a century, is the deep hatred for Russia Genocide Man has now created in Ukraine. Good luck with that.

Top HHS spokesperson quits after clashing with RFK Jr. Thomas Corry resigned over disagreements with the HHS secretary and his approach to the measles outbreak. Donald Trump's 4 Year Plan. Break shit. Then it won't work. Repeat. Break shit. Then it won't work. Repeat. Break shit. Then it won't work. Repeat. Break shit. Then it won't work. Repeat. Break shit. Then it won't work. Repeat. Break shit. Then it won't work. Repeat. Break shit. Then it won't work. Repeat. Break shit. Then it won't work. Repeat.

Texas measles outbreak grows to 146 cases, largest in decades The latest update comes two days after the first death was reported in a school-aged child who lived in the outbreak area. Donald Trump's 4 Year Plan. Break shit. Then it won't work. Repeat. Break shit. Then it won't work. Repeat. Break shit. Then it won't work. Repeat. Break shit. Then it won't work. Repeat. Break shit. Then it won't work. Repeat. Break shit. Then it won't work. Repeat. Break shit. Then it won't work. Repeat. Break shit. Then it won't work. Repeat.

This is just a different dumb ass version of the yapping dog's Canada v. US. A big lose-lose for the US and our allies, that the insolent pig does not seem to realize strengthens China. There’s Only One Winner in a U.S.-EU Trade War: China Here’s how a common U.S.-EU trade strategy on China can help avoid a transatlantic trade war. I think the verdict is in last Friday that, given the choice between America First or America Alone, Trump will take America Alone. If he can't have America First on his terms, he'd rather not have it at all. He'll see America Alone as a victory. MAGA will yappingly agree. The big problem with this article's idea is simple: no tariffs is like saying bad shit about his pal Vlad to Trump. Don't even bother. Ain't gonna fly. The insolent pig's brain thinks like a child seeking retribution. It can't handle the complexity of what this author lays out. As a Democrat my basic instinct would always be to celebrate when the SPD wins in Germany. I remember the days when the SPD's Gerhard Schroeder and Putin were allied in trying to stop the US from invading Iraq. It absolutely infuriated Republican friends that I agreed with Schroeder and Putin. They thought I was un-American. Look how that played out. 😉 So right now I feel like it is a happy coincidence that Germany elected a very pro-NATO and pro-US and hard ass conservative leader instead. If you throw Merz and Donald Tusk and Macron and Starmer in a room, you may have a Europe that can be solid behind Ukraine. Trump won't be. The author of this article is right that Trump now has a natural ally in Germany - if Trump thought like Reagan did. But he doesn't. He is just an insolent pig, traitorous to allies. So now the question is whether the EU, with a strong German leader, can get its shit together while Trump focuses on breaking as much shit as he can.

You posted that in between me making two posts on polls. So that CBS poll answers your question. It is taken from the 26th to the 28th, and the Oval Office shit show was on the 28th. So it will be interesting to see whether that shifts perceptions a little. I think Trump's authoritarian followers have mostly spoken. They are on his side. I suspect some Republican veterans are getting worried about Trump, though. Those guys really don't like Putin. So one way to answer your question is that the glass is 96 % empty. Very few Americans sympathize with Russia. I think 96 % of Americans are right. No American forced Putin to decide to invade Russia. If joining NATO is the pretext, it was always an empty promise. Again, if I could go back to Bucharest in 2008 and show W. what the impact of the empty promise would be, maybe he would have shut the fuck up. Regardless, it was an empty promise. It's just as likely that Putin would have invaded anyway. Either way, that glass is 96 % empty. And I have now shown you several polls that confirm that almost no one in America sympathizes with Putin or Russia. That said, I think there has been a disappointing but not surprising shift. Republicans, not Democrats or Independents, are suddenly a lot more likely to say that we support neither side. It's the same thing as saying we abandoned our allies, but it sounds nicer. I think there is also a shift that more Republicans are willing to say maybe Russia is friendly. It is too early to tell. But one third of Americans, mostly Republicans, saying Russia is friendly is a big increase from a few months ago, I think. And Putin can thank Trump for that. As a Democrat who sympathizes with Ukraine, I have no fundamental problem with any of this. I can make a great argument that this is cleaner than what would have happened if Harris has won. Either way, most people - most importantly Ukrainians - now see the war as a stalemate. The big plus with Trump is that he may be able to get Putin to play nice for at least as long as he is POTUS. I will keep arguing that he is, in effect, the security guarantee Ukraine wants. But only for four years. Your stupid AI model did not understand that "from now on" really has to mean until 2028. Depending on what happens in 2028, things may be very different in 2029. Hold that thought. Either way, Putin's unprovoked invasion was halted at a terrible price to Russia. And almost no price to the US. I wrote it that way intentionally. The job of the US was to support our ally. We did. If people died in Ukraine, that is because Genocide Man killed them. The US did not kill any people. Ukraine asked for help, and the EU and NATO and the US gave them the help they asked for. And while many of Trump's followers know very little about NATO or the EU, and say lots of incredibly ignorant things, those polls above confirm that almost all Americans want Europe as our ally. Not Putin. But Republicans don't want to help Ukraine anymore, because Trump runs their party now. He likes authoritarian leaders like Putin, and aspires to be one himself. So that now all has to play out. Again, Vlad must be laughing his ass off. Enjoy the show. It won't be pretty.

And I'll repeat Republican Senator Lisa Murkowksi's quote, too: When she said that a few days ago, it was meant as an admonition. Not surprisingly, it also kind of worked as a prediction. But it is complicated, and involves a Republican mind fuck to get there. From the same CBS poll I quoted above: So those first two polls mostly show that nothing has changed. Almost nobody supports Russia. Almost all Americans see Europeans as allies, or at least friendly. I'm sure if CBS had polled Mike Johnson's exact language above - "Putin is the aggressor" and "I'd like to see Putin defeated" most Americans would agree. With many politically ignorant MAGA Republicans, you would first have to explain that Mike Johnson is the Republican Speaker of the House, and an ally of Trump. That is how authoritarian followers think. Just tell me what Trump says. He is always right. I obey. Those second two polls are a disappointment, but not a surprise. Trump shit all over Zelenskyy for saying what most Americans think about Putin. Meanwhile, he went on and on about what poor Vlad and him had to go through when Vlad interfered in a US election. I'm pretty sure most Trump supporters who actually watched that felt sorry for the insolent pig, if not his Russian pal. It's not really true that the US walked away from Ukraine and our allies. The Republican Party under Trump walked away from Ukraine and our allies. And that's not really true, either. Because Johnson knows Zelenskyy is telling the truth about Putin. He is saying the same things himself - much more forecefully than Zelenskyy does. And politically uninformed authoritarian followers who like the idea of having allies in Europe probably have no idea that Trump is destroying the very alliances they say they want. So everyone just has to dance around Trump while he breaks shit. It is incredibly fucked up and ignorant. But it is where we are. Trump loves to break shit. The theme of Season Two really is RETRIBUTION. And until it becomes clear to more people that broken shit doesn't work, they will applaud that breaking shit is really cool. Meanwhile, Putin is laughing his ass off.

I posted these Zelenskyy quotes already in another thread. But they are funny, and sad: Zelenskyy said this: First, polls consistently show this is how most Americans feel. A brand new CBS poll after the Oval Office shit show shows one third of Americans see Russia as an enemy, one third as unfriendly, and only one third see Russia as friendly or an ally. Second, this is the exact opposite of what Trump thinks and says. This kind of language is now branded as unhelpful, if not warmonger, for people like Trump who want Peace. Third, these were actually things House Speaker Mike Johnson just said, in an article about why Zelenskyy may have to resign. He is basically saying Trump is wrong, and Zelenskyy is correct, and saying what most Americans think. And Zelenskyy should have to resign for that. WTF?

Putin can, and in fact has, come up with an endless list of grievances about how Ukraine or NATO forced him to invade. But no one forced him to invade. The easy way for me to agree with your basic point is to go back to Bucharest in 2008. Donald Trump was a reaction to many things. But many of those things were George W. Bush. In the film version, I would send the 2025 version of Donald Trump back to Bucharest, I would have him show W. what the bloody current outcome would be for Ukraine. I'd also show him the devastation in Iraq. And the humiliating end in Afghanistan. I might add January 6th, and point out that the reaction against you led to this. George. And add how his Veep's daughter is now persona now grata among the new MAGA Republican Party. I don't think W. planned on any of that. So my hope is he would react in abject horror, and shut the fuck up about Ukraine joining NATO. On an objective level, it is now clear that no good came of it so far. Kissinger at the time said that Ukraine should be a neutral bridge between Russia and the West. Maybe that was a better idea. That said, I think the same holds true for Putin. This is clearly a good moment for Putin. Maybe a bit like W. under his "Mission Accomplished" sign in Iraq. Famous last words. But W. actually thought he had won in Iraq. All Putin has is a bloody stalemate. My argument, which you won't agree with, is that this has already gone badly for Putin. And it's not going to end well in the long run. It is interesting that you focus on 2019 in your journal of grievances. Trump was President then. And he would kick you out of the Oval Office, too, @Moses, for suggesting that he did not have his buddy Vlad's back. So what if Zelenskyy did this or that? Trump wasn't going to let them join NATO. Nor was Biden. Nor did Biden. Nor will Trump now. It's a weak argument to say that Putin had to invade Ukraine because of something that has been talked about for 15 years, but has always been an empty promise. I will repeat again that, for all his horrors, I would take Trump over W. in a heartbeat. At least this version of the Republican Party isn't launching an adventure like Iraq. And if Harris had won I think there would have been pressure to find a way to freeze the stalemate, too. So I'm personally good with a break in the forever wars. And its now clear that both Ukraine and the EU won't make it easy for Trump to throw their interests under the bus to make a deal Putin would love.

Brzezinski Interview 1998 Interview with Zbigniew Brzezinski on Afghanistan in Le Nouvel Observateur So this post will be really off the rails. I am long winded, anyway. But this one is a bunch of complicated but fascinating ideas. In summary, my point is that I would be quite worried that Putin just won a huge battle, but will still lose the war. This post is about Afghanistan and Poland, in particular. And the point is that Zbig, as I will call him, was a native Pole who was the hawk in the Carter Administration. His theories about how these national conflicts play out over the long haul have sure proven to be accurate, every time. His belief in the Carter years was that Poland was too culturally different than Russia for the Warsaw Pact to last. And the job of the US was to gradually and slowly engage in positive ways and pick that alliance apart. That strategy obviously worked under Reagan and Bush 41. Putin would argue that if any country is just like Russia, it is Ukraine. I've never been to Ukraine. So what do I know? But I suspect Zbig's theory is right in this case, as well. Whatever peace or truce or stalemate is created, this will never be forgotten or forgiven by Ukrainians. At some point, when Brezhnev Andropov Gorbachev Yeltsin Putin is dead, Ukraine will probably get their chance for what they all now want: to get out of Russia's orbit forever. Trump will just be a sad chapter in history. The way I got to Brzezinski and 1980 is something Jeffrey Sachs said in that interview I posted above. Sachs is the peacenik who I admire. He is sympathetic with Putin's view, that somehow Putin was almost forced to invade because of NATO. Sachs claimed in the article I posted that Zbig admitted before he died that he and Carter started funding the Afghan rebels even before Brezhnev invaded Afghanistan. He said their goal was to lure the USSR into a Vietnam-like trap. I had never heard that before. So Sachs railed against the US, and also indirectly the USSR. Both empires broke this poor nation Afghanistan for 40 years, he argues. No wonder people hate the US, and the USSR or Russia. We treat their countries like toys, break them, and walk away. I agree with his overall rant about US and USSR and Russian imperialism. He is largely right. Exhibit A for me on the US side is always the Iraq War. But part of Sachs' point is that Afghanistan was a disaster for both the USSR and the US. Brezinski's theory was that this kind of subjugation is always easy to gradually pick apart, if you try. So he thought the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, a country that has always repelled outsiders, was a sitting duck. He was right. This is from the 1998 interview of Zbig I hyperlinked above Famous last words. Little did Zbig know that those agitated Muslims would attack America in 2001, and draw the US into the same quagmire. So both the US and USSR are guilty of enormous amounts of stupidity and hubris. Sachs is wrong on his point about Zbig, I think. I found some 104 page essay on this topic from 2012 and read the whole thing. Carter and Zbig did not lure the US into Afghanistan. They of course did not want the invasion. In part because it made Carter look weak. Zbig's point is that if the Soviet Union does invade, we will help the indigenous rebels turn it into the their VietNam. The first installment from the US was only $500,000 in non-lethal aid, given months before the invasion. When it was pretty clear the USSR would invade. So my rejoinder to Sachs is that Afghanistan has done a pretty good job fucking up their country on their own, thank you. When neither the USSR nor US were helping. But it does speak to how even the biggest superpowers in the world can not subject people who don't like them for long. The really fascinating parts of that essay go into great detail about how the beginning of the end of the Warsaw Pact started under Carter. Again, Zbig's theory was that people in Poland and the Iron Curtain wanted to be free. So he pushed the idea that instead of being afraid of provoking Breshnev, we should be doing everything we can to promote Western values and ideals in Poland. Fate intervened, and perhaps God was on Poland's side for once. Zbig met Pope John Paul II when they were both nobodies. They became immediate allies, Poles who hated the USSR domination. In a few years Zbig was in the White House, and we had our first Polish Pope. They talk about when the Iron Curtain really ended was when John Paul II went to his Polish homeland in 1979. We all know the history. It took another very messy decade or so for Poland to become a free market democracy, and for the USSR to collapse. But Zbig's basic theory has proved true, whether in a Muslim nation like Afghanistan or Catholic Poland. When Zbig and Reagan and the Pope set about to turn all these cultural and political and economic cracks into canyons, it really wasn't particularly hard. I think Ukraine falls into exactly the same historical pattern. I'm quite sure the CIA manipulated the hell out of Ukraine. Just like Putin has manipulated US elections. Did the CIA actually set a trap for Putin to invade Ukraine, knowing it would be a quagmire like Afghanistan? First, there is no proof. Second, I doubt it. Much like Carter did not want to be seen as weak when the USSR invaded Afghanistan, I don't think Trump or Biden or anyone wanted Putin to invade Ukraine. Whether it was intended or not, has Ukraine been a trap for Russia? Yes. I think it has. It killed lots of Russians. It screwed up your economy. And so far what you have is a bloody stalemate. And while it seemed objectively true 10 or 20 years ago that Ukrainians were neutral if not friendly to Russia, that world is gone. They hate you. They just spent years killing you. Zelenskyy was undiplomatic in the Oval Office for a reason. His people clearly hate Putin, and don't trust Russia to do anything but kill them, rape them, and steal their children. Trump has put Republicans in the impossible position of having to argue everything Zelenskyy says about Putin is true. But he should resign for saying so. Even though most Americans and Ukrainians agree with him. Putin did not have to invade. I think everything Brzezinski argued correctly would play out in Afghanistan and Poland and the rest of the Warsaw Pact will probably play out in Ukraine as well. You and I agree, I think, that as long as Trump is POTUS there will be some kind of peace or truce or stalemate in Ukraine. Neither Trump not Putin will want to mess with each other. So that is potential good news. I don't think Trump will convince the US, or the EU, that Putin is now our ally. Quite the opposite. But there will be a cold peace, at least. I would be worried that this is much worse than Poland in 1980. The reality is that the USSR could have invaded and crushed Poland in 1980, and almost did. The fact that they were bogged down in Afghanistan actually saved Poland from an invasion, some former Brezhnev associates have argued. But I'm sure the USSR could have crushed Poland's nascent rebellion if they tried. They did try to crush Ukraine. And it failed, badly. So now everyone gets a time out. But there is no reason to think the Ukrainians won't be just like the Poles. I think Putin walked into it a trap of his own making. Check with me in a decade, when Trump is long gone. And Putin is either old, or dead.

Thanks for a clear answer. That is the big one, of course. And I think it is clear that Putin has won that, at a very steep price for both Russia and Ukraine. This may not be entirely fair. But I do blame this on W. His two great horrors were the Iraq War and the Global Financial Crisis. The first was clearly his fault. I blame the second on him as well, since he ran all the regulatory agencies that at the very least tolerated Wall Street building a mortgage time bomb. But W.'s insistence that Ukraine had to join NATO could be seen as a third time bomb, that just took longer to go off. John Mearsheimer is one of my Top 10 academics that I listen to a lot. He is viewed by some as a Putin apologist. But mostly what he talks about is how Ukraine joining NATO was of course always going to be an existential threat to Russia. I think the honest statement that has to be added to that now is that the US turned out to be a paper tiger. If Ukraine wanted to be part of NATO, and the US was absolutely determined to make it so, that is one thing. But the US has basically shown again it is unreliable in the long run. So with 20/20 hindsight I think W was the original sin back in 2008. Congratulations. If Putin's goal was to keep Ukraine out of NATO, I think he won that. At least for a long time to come. That said, no one forced Putin to invade. It's not like Zelenskyy was just about to sign a treaty joining NATO. Quite the opposite. W.'s original sin in 2008 - if we view it as a sin - was that it was an empty promise. Ukraine was divided about NATO until Putin invaded. Now they are unified in hating Putin, and wanting nothing to do with Russia. So the ironic thing is that, now that Ukraine is unified around hating Russia and wanting to be in NATO, suddenly Trump wants to take away the empty promise. History has many strange and sad turns.

Great, Vlad. I cited the source. But you don't believe facts. Third time in a row, thank you. You are good at proving how stupid AI is.