stevenkesslar

One other footnote. Two new polls are out showing El Sayed in the lead. One by 3 points, one by 7. A recent Fox poll, which had been the only one after the primary, had him down by 4. No reason to put much faith in any of these polls. But, still, it is a relief. It suggests there was no sudden swing away from El-Sayed after all the ranting and raving about how he will make it harder for Democrats to win. If anything, these two polls suggest the opposite: his message about how it's the economy, stupid, maybe was getting through. That said, there are a whole lots of polls now that suggest Democrats need BTE: big tent energy. We have four states with a moderate and a progressive Democrat running statewide. And in every state the candidate who can be labeled as the more moderate one is doing better. In Michigan Benson has an 8 point lead, says RCP in their poll average, compared to 0.7 % for El-Sayed. In Minnesota Klobuchar has a 12 point lead, compared to a 5 point lead for Flanagan. In Georgia Ossoff has a 7 point lead, compared to 2 points for Lance Bottoms. In Florida Jolly is down by 5 points, compared to 10 points down for Nixon. I'm not sure it's quite correct to say Lance Bottoms is the progressive. But Ossoff definitely has worked hard to present himself as bipartisan when it comes to legislating and constituent services. And electing a Black Governor is a progressive thing in Georgia. Or anywhere. This gives Democrats a big clue about 2028. We have to be a big tent party. As a liberal, it breaks my heart that having a moderate at the top of the ticket may make sense politically. But these numbers suggest it does make sense politically.

Creepy! Creepier! Trump Team Is Pissed at Aide Secretly Enabling Crazed Nighttime Rants

Show some respect. Someone has to change the diapers.

Fair enough. (White) Republicans love to rail again DEI in general. And any Black Democrat as too stupid to be anything other than a DEI candidate, in the eyes of some of them. Including Harris. No racism there whatsoever! So it's fair to attack Donalds as the DEI exception to the We Really Do Like White Power rule. I think the concession the majority of Republicans have made to Obama and racism is that, in their eyes, skin color no longer matters. Which I think is largely true, as this race suggests. But they don't want to hear about DEI or racism or intersectionality. Because - again - race no longer matters. And to the degree that we can say we voted for this Black Senator or that Black Governor because they were the best candidate, they have a point. Like I said, I think this is mostly good for America. I feel sorry for Tim Scott. Unlike Donalds, his rise had nothing to do with Trump. In fact, he ran against Trump in 2024 and got nowhere. He is, albeit secretly, a DEI guy who feels the government should help Blacks and other minorities and women build Main Street capitalism. If he were POTUS and Elizabeth Warren chaired the Banking Committee, they could make deals. But as far as I can tell, Trump shit on and tore apart everything Tim Scott stood for. So it's not a case of small cock energy so much as Tim Scott is simply politically castrated. And speaking of politically castrated worthless pieces of shit ........................... What's interesting about last night is Trump LOST most of the candidate races he endorsed. Two House seats in Florida, and one Guv race in Wyoming. And since Trump is a scumbag and rapist, he of course just had to endorse the Republican scumbag Cory Mills. Kudos to Republicans for doing what Democrats did in Maine. Empty the trash. They don't even want to follow the lead of their small cock losing lying piece of shit POTUS anymore. All of this is more handwriting on the wall that the raping lying So Small A Cock It Has No Energy POTUS who is a genocidal piece of shit has overstayed his corrupt welcome with more and more Americans. Did I mention the monstrous piece of shit got us into a monumentally losing Trump Forever War in Iran because he is a stupid egomaniac? Piece of shit! Piece of shit! Piece of shit! Loser SDE piece of shit who made America lose again. What was even more interesting is that the Democrats went in two different directions at once. The DSA did not get the Guv candidate they wanted in Wisconsin. But they did get her in a Florida Senate race. Which likely means its an even bigger loss for Democrats. Meanwhile, the one hope Democrats do have - in Florida - is merging with the left wing of the Republican Party and putting forth former Republicans like Jolly and Crist. I like David Jolly. He speaks to a bygone era of bipartisan politics I miss. In Florida and Texas that could be the path for Democrats to win. By building the moderate brand of the Democratic Party in red states while others like AOC and Bernie and El-Sayed try to build a more progressive version of the party elsewhere. There is nothing new about the idea that the Southern part of the Democratic Party is always more conservative. And I have to raise a toast to Bob Graham, former Senator and Guv of Florida who I adored from a distance. His daughter Gwen is now Jolly's running mate. In retrospect, it was a big mistake that she narrowly lost the Democratic primary in 2018 to Andrew Gillum. It was exciting at the time. And he would have been Florida's first Black progressive Guv. But it turned out he was a mess. And it set the stage for DeSantis and Republicans to rise. Had Gwen Graham won the primary in 2018 it might have been different. Or, maybe, Jolly and her are just an echo of the bipartisan past. We'll know in November.

Donalds' win is historic. If he wins the general he will be the first Black Republican Governor. There's an endless list of things I don't like about the Trump version of the Republican Party. But the fact that they will elect Black Governors and Senators in red states is not on the list. I take it as a victory of Democrats, in part. The Republicans looked at us and figured out they can't be the (exclusively) White Party. As much as I am a partisan whore, I think it's good for America and good for minorities that both parties are now at least trying to compete for their votes. And electing them to Congress and now a Governor's seat. That said, I think the Republicans have a very hard lesson coming in 2026. Anger about inflation opened a door for Republicans to Hispanics and Blacks and Asians in 2024. And a lot of nasty shit Team Trump has done since then seems to be slamming it closed again. We'll see.

Wall Street is actually quite capable of figuring out how to drive the global economy over the cliff all by themselves. The big question is whether the bubble finally pops before or after 2028.

Actually, I suspect Trump's human binkie has to tolerate our Dumb Murder Pup. Harp wants Trump all to herself. And when the dog yaps it can get to be annoying. I heard the day Trump signed the order shit canning USAID and dooming millions of HIV kids to death that @Barknaway yapped for three hours in excitement. Hard to believe. But Trump's binkie is even more loyal to Trump than our puppy. And she keeps her mouth shut. The Stupid Murder Dog better watch his step. Harp is no dummy. She may put him down.

True. And why was I not surprised? 😉

He's amazing. He takes all Trump's bullshit about how Democrats are extreme and shoves it right down the throat of all the eligible Republican nitwits, lunatics, and haters. Trump is at something like 40 % approval and 56 % disapproval if Georgia. I'm hoping the tide is strong enough that Lance Bottoms wins, too.

How to know you are Gay, before you knew you were Gay: I remember when I was a kid, like maybe 12 or so, my brother-in-law caught me soaking my hands in Palmolive. Madge said so, after all! "What the fuck are you doing?" he asked me. I had no fucking clue. But my Sister In Cock was worse. I can't tell you how many times Mom caught her trying on her high heel shoes. And Dad got really pissed when my Sister In Cock tried on his condoms. 🙄

I prefer to think of you as a woman of high principles. Just like me. One can hope some of it would rub off on Trump and Melania. But, alas. It's a lost cause.

You and I often post about what I think are basically two different groups of voters. Even though there's always some overlapping. You often focus on what I'll call True MAGA Folk. And you often refer to them as MAGA. In that Buddy Carter ad he branded himself "MAGA Warrior" and basically did say, "I'll go after the sick fuck homos. The boy pussies who carry purses and shit." Even in a Republican primary in Georgia the "let's hunt us some homos" guy got only 1 in 4 primary votes. I know I'm outnumbered as a liberal. And as a Gay man, of course. So my first instinct, like in looking at a poll, is always to look at where the Independents are. You're making the same point I am about empathy, which you call "more tolerant." I agree. But being empathetic and more tolerant doesn't mean they are on the right side of the issue. But it does mean empathy and tolerance could be the way to persuade them to move toward what we view as the right side of the issue. I do think "Gays in the military" and "same sex marriage" and "trans women in female sports" all have that in common. We're up against bigoted assholes like Buddy Carter, who pride themselves on their bigoted views. Empathy and tolerance are weapons to fight that. It was interesting when I read that Gallup poll on Gays in the military from 1993 I hyperlinked above. The answer to the riddle was hiding in plain sight, all along. In the whole population, support for Gays in the military was 50 % opposed/43 % in favor in 1993. But for voters who knew someone Gay, it was completely different: 63 % in favor, 31 % opposed. That's not exactly rocket science. But it speaks to empathy. People who know someone Gay or trans are far more likely to be for these things. Because they see us as people, not freaks. It's the same with Islam. There's been studies that showed the people who feel most threatened by Islam are the ones who live very far away from a mosque. I actually think Pete could be the nominee in 2028, for a few reasons. The most important one is youth. After 12 years of Old Geezer Presidents, and with more Millennials and Zoomers voting than ever before, the idea of some President who doesn't look like he belongs in a coffin could be a very powerful thing. I also think the math will be the same as in 2016 and 2020. In the end, the moderates will decide who the Democrats nominate. Not the liberals like me. If Central Casting is looking for someone younger and more toward the center, Buttigieg, Ossoff and Shapiro would be at the top of my list. And all three register now in the polls - in that order.

So here is another rant, since you love them. I'll just post the article and let it do the ranting - or research - for me. How Marriage Equality Supporters Beat The ”Princess” Ad Marriage equality–related campaigns won in four states this month. The victories, in part, came after a yearlong, behind-the-scenes national research effort. Note that is from 2012. And I've posted it several times before. But it's the best article I've ever read on how queers won the battle of the year decade century millenium. My own view is that on trans sports we are actually closer to the 1990s and Bill Clinton. Bill Clinton tried to do something to help LGBTQ people that helped him win in 1992. It blew up in his face, and led many Gay men to view him as a traitor. But it was all about math. About 50 % of Americans opposed Gays in the military. Let alone same sex marriage. It took two decades, and a ton of analysis and organizing, to win. And the "analysis" actually supports what you are saying. "Analysis" like saying "Gays deserve fairness" or "Gays want basic rights" was necessary, but not sufficient. What worked better, particularly for moderates, was heart over head. Feelings. We're just guys who fall in love with guys and want to be able to be committed to them. For life. Because we love them. That's what worked.

Proof of concept. Buddy Carter even believes there's only two genders. It's a really stupid ad. Happily, Buddy Carter got nowhere with it. Couldn't even win him a Republican primary. He came in third place. Loser! So, for the type of MAGA diehards you are talking about, SIs, we agree. They're redneck assholes. Trump turds. Stupid bigoted dumb fucks. With those jerks, I just have my fairy godmother show up, wave her wand, and repeat three times, "Turn to shit! Turn to shit! Turn to shit!" They ain't worth the time of intelligent women with lots of cocks to suck, like you and me. Now, speaking of cocks. And not to be too analytical. But I know you excel at math, Sis. Especially when it comes to counting to 12 or so inches. So here is a simple math problem. 80 % of voters either support a ban on trans women and girls participating in female sports (about 66 %), or feel uncomfortable with such participation (14 % or so). Meanwhile, Trump has never won 50 % of the vote running for POTUS. What percentage of the total American electorate did not vote for Trump, does not identify with MAGA, but still either supports a trans ban, or feels uncomfortable with trans women and girls in female sports. 1. 0 % 2. 100 % 3. 30 % If everyone who opposed Democrats on this issue was a fervent Trump/MAGA piece of shit, I'd agree with you. Hillary did not help herself in 2016 by calling these people "irredeemable" in public. But here on the internet, we Sisters can be honest. Empathy only gets us so far. Problem is there are a lot of people who are not Trump voters who are against us on this issue. Analyze that and get back to me.

Great question. Simple answer and long answer. Simple answer: Empathy. Long answer: I think there are three culture war issues that are toxic to Democrats. 1) Trans/forcing boys to be girls, 2) Defund the police, 3) Open the borders and let rapists in. Those are arguably Trump's three greatest hits for years now. They got him in the White House. Twice, by my count. "High prices" no longer works for him like in 2024, since his dumb ass failures are the cause of high prices. So they are pivoting to "communism." Happily, I don't think voters will somehow be convinced that Trump's high prices are okay, since Democratic communism is worse. 🤔 You asked about trans, of course. I think that issue more than any is crying for a "Sister Souljah" moment. And girls' sports is the ideal place to focus it. Republicans obviously love the issue because it is an 80/20 issue. Pew says 2 in 3 Americans favor a legal ban on trans participation in girls' sports, and about 80 % of Americans feel uncomfortable with it. By one count last year there were 745 anti-trans bills in state legislatures. It is a wildly popular and effective way for sporting Republicans to pummel Democrats to a bloody pulp. For sports betting, this is awesome. Because on this issue Democrats will lose pretty much every fucking time. Some Democrat running for President should take a pretty hard line position that some of this stuff went too far. And the ideal person to do that is Pete Buttigieg. Since it would burnish his "reasonable moderate" credentials. Someone like Pete can do it with a tone of empathy. Of course we want to help these kids. Of course they deserve our empathy. Newsom has been working this issue of trans in sports. He was Mayor Same Sex Marriage, so he also has empathy credentials to talk about this. And there is a "fairness" difference he has focused on. Giving marriage to Gay men essentially said we don't want to take anything away from marriage, or Straight couples. We actually want to add to it. An equivalent would be having trans sports teams. Which we do, of course. But that doesn't really solve the issue of whether a lone trans woman or girl can compete or join a team. The nice thing about Trump 2.0 is we now know that if we want 100 % of an issue, we will actually get 0 %. At least once the reaction grows strong enough to elect someone like Trump. You want open borders? Great. We'll deport your nephew, who has a child and works at a construction company. That's what Hispanics in Texas are learning. You want no restrictions on trans women in sports? Great. We'll have 1000 fucking bills and talk EVERY FUCKING DAY about how these trans people are a MENACE to your daughter. How is that better for trans people and immigrants? Jon Ossoff created a "how to" guidebook on this, as far as it goes. He voted against a federal ban on trans women and girls participating in female sports. He says his support for the LGBTQ community is "ironclad." So he framed it as keep the federal government out of these decisions. If this was supposed to give Republicans a way to make Ossoff look extreme, it's not working. But it begs the question of who should decide, and what limits are okay. My own impression is that "local control" and "eligibility standards" are a moderate path that neither bans something completely, nor condones something 100 %. Something like this from SF.gov, which sounds Ossoff-like: Same thing with the border. The happy news is that perceived Biden "open borders" led to Trump "ICE bullets in American bodies," which horrified middle America. Democrats now have an opening for a reasonable compromise once we take power again. My personal experience, anecdotally, is this inflames moderate Moms in particular. I had a fascinating dinner with the wife of one of my nephews, with her two teen daughters present. She knows I am a "Gay activist" type. So she basically interrogated me. And it was clear that all this stuff about doing stuff to teens without parental knowledge or consent makes her feel Democrats are nuts. It fits right in of course that she is a quasi-anti-vaxxer who likes RFK, Jr. And probably there is no way for a Democrat to win her vote. But she lives in a Southern state, and she could probably go for somebody like Andy Beshear. All that said, we have a close relationship. And she and her Mom,, who is even more conservative, are very comfortable with me being Gay. That said, while we were at dinner, she said, "I would have a real problem if one of my daughters turned out to be Gay." Happily, one of her daughters is marrying a guy next month. Can't wait for the wedding. Empathy and tolerance were the cards the LGBTQ movement played expertly to win legal same sex marriage. I think a majority of Americans, including many conservatives, are open to empathy on this issue. They are not open to what seem like crazy and radical ideas to them. Some smart and empathetic politician at the national level, like Pete Buttigieg or Jon Ossoff, is going to need to figure this out. The polling and my personal experience, of which I cited just one example, align with the idea that a lot of moderate Moms see this as textbook evidence of how Democrats are way too far out there. Great question. We should be asking questions like this a lot. Rant over.

And just to prove I am a cheap and lying whore, it actually turns out you CAN steal a pen, on film, and get elected to the US Senate. Watch how a future US Senator steals an expensive pen. I guess we are all cheap whores at heart. But there is a lesson to be learned. Ethics and values do matter more than Mount Blanc pens. Over 35 years after he won a Senate seat while stealing a pen, Penny Flanagan will lead Minnesota Democrats to victory in the US Senate with the same message about what really matters.

Which is why you will always be my dearest and darlingest Sister In Cock. But let's be honest for a minute. In addition to being my much younger and prettier sibling, you are simply being way too kind. 💞 You of all people know all about my small handful of youthful transgressions. And, if we're being honest, I guess there were quite a few not so youthful transgressions, too. For example, the time I got involved in public service with that young and extremely well hung Oregon lawyer and state legislator comes to mind. He had a thing for Mount Blanc pens, as well as having his penis sucked. How could I be against pens and penis? So I stole that Mount Blanc pen to impress him. Happily for you, Sis, Mamdani is a democratic socialist. You provide public services according to your abilities. We don't need Mount Blanc pens to provide public service to the well hung young generation of leaders. But I digress. This all of course comes to mind because of Ken Paxton, and the scandal involving the Mount Blanc pen. The polls suggest Halperin is right, and Talarico will win. One can hope. Simply proving that I am not always right, despite your kindler and gentler words about me. All that glitters is not gold. And it is the nice thing about being an older and cheap whore, if we're really being honest. They can't take our Mount Blanc pens away. Or our virginity. 🫢

Well it looks like Democrats will get the close Senate race we voted for in Michigan. The four latest polls show El-Sayed behind by an average of four points, with one poll from a few weeks ago showing him ten points behind Rogers. There is a clear polling contrast between moderates and the progressives that are pushing the fringe. Cook Political Report now lists both Georgia and North Carolina as "Leans Democrat." Michigan is the only currently blue state considered a tossup. The other three tossups are Maine, Alaska, and Ohio, all currently with Republican Senators of course. I have no regrets about this. Enough progressives won primaries in states or House districts that could go either way that it will be a good test of the theory that progressives can win in swing races. It will also test the theory that, in order to win, progressive and democratic socialist candidates will have to moderate and explain themselves to swing voters. I was actually surprised when I look at the GovTrack ideology rankings that Warnock is the most conservative Democratic Senator,. And Ossoff is not far from Warnock. That no doubt helps explain why they can win in a state that is as much red as purple at the state legislative level. While I am a Berniecrat at heart, I'm already reconciled to the idea that Democrats will nominate a Presidential candidate that is a moderate in 2028. I think 2016 and 2020 proved that progressives just don't have the votes at the national level. Some "new younger Biden" will come along. Meaning someone who positions themselves to the right of all the progressives on the left. If I had to guess now it could be Buttigieg or Ossoff. Or Warnock, if he runs. As much as I like Gay Power and BDE, I think the idea of "The Rev" running for President after eight years of Trump would be healing. Literally. I don't think its possible if Harris runs. If she doesn't, who knows? Here's Fareed's take on why Democrats need to moderate on the culture wars. I agree with him. I think the fact that we lost narrowly to Trump twice proves both that the culture war issues are hurting Democrats. And that if we nominate a moderate for POTUS we can win. That said, I don't want to go through another Democratic Presidency where a few "moderates" like Sinema and Manchin derail everything a moderate President like Biden is fighting for. While we may not be able to have a progressive President, packing the House and Senate with progressives who can win will help when it comes to actually legislating an economic agenda. And I don't fully agree with Fareed. Meaning even if Democrats can't moderate enough on "woke" issues to win Missouri or Montana, I think pushing for a populist economic agenda can go a long way. Fareed makes great points about how younger people are the ones most getting screwed. Had Sinema and Manchin supported those expanded child tax credits, which helped tens of millions of working class families, I think Harris could have won based on that one change alone. She could have argued that Democrats actually did something to help with inflation. And cut child poverty in half. The fact that Democrats could not even keep that victory, and Kamala paraded around with Liz Cheney, says a lot about what Democrats should NOT do next time.

She's going after Scott Weiner hard. He was the last San Francisco candidate I volunteered for before I left San Francisco in 2012, when he was first running for Supervisor. It's funny because by any other standard he would be a flaming Gay liberal. But by SF standards he was the conservative in the race. Pelosi clearly wants to put her hands on the scale of who gets to succeed her. At least, as you note, she quit while she was ahead and at the height of her power. I was never a huge DiFi fan. Seeing her go the way she did was sad. On the topic of SF, it is interesting that Mayor Lurie and his moderation is wildly popular in a supposedly crazy liberal city. San Francisco led the way on wokeness, as much as any other City. Maybe they are now leading the Democrats in a different direction.

I'm so relieved to hear that. The yapping dumb dog is going to need a tremendous amount of emotional support.

But other than that, he's been a damn great President. Right? Right?

To paraphrase .......... If it walks like a narcissistic, raping, lying, election stealing dangerous piece of shit ..........................

If it walks like a duck .............

The raping lying grifting anti-Communist is seeing his support collapse all over the US. And screaming "communism" won't fix the problems Trump created. That pretty much sums up the problem. But the article I took it from spells out in great detail why the Republican redistricting of Hispanic South Texas could actually result in Democratic gains, not losses. Call it buyer's remorse. Or liar's remorse. Trump is the liar who feels no remorse. But the people who voted for MAGA feel it. All over the US. Is America Great again yet? Bark, dog, bark! Go find those construction workers and small business owners and get rid of them, like ICE does. And remember to wear a mask when you do! Fucking disloyal un-American pieces of shit! ICE targets them because they are brown. Just like pieces of shit. Remember, @Barknaway. You are good. And loyal. And true. Make America Great Again!

Now, Sis. There's no accounting for bad fashion. Or blind loyalty and subservience. Make America Great Again! Or at least make the Trump clan shitloads of money. And remember, Sis. As Trump says, we need to protect "the greatest economy in the history of the world" from Communists. (We kicked Iran's ass. Are we great again yet?)