Riobard

Bogotá is mostly open. Relaxed highest restriction level early Feb yet CoV case incidence declined. Many concert halls and cultural attractions opened this month. There may be some restrictions but I am pretty sure venues can operate to 23:00 if not later. A big tourism trade show is on in a few weeks. Crude daily mortality rate for CoV wrt to population is about 1 in 400,000 Probability of at least one contagious carrier in the city, among any 10 persons, is 6%; 25 persons is 14%. The large scale revival of freedom may eventually yield some degree of resurgence in new case incidence. Vaccination uptake will need to outpace the P1 Amazon variant. Much of the plan is the substandard CoronaVac. Travel now in the short term may be opportune, but Avianca has curtailed many routes. Theatron is still only streaming music so I do not know the lay of the land for bar and club establishments. It needs large volumes to turn a profit and younger people in particular may have taken a hit financially.

Well, 12 years of prohibition, for different reasons, followed on the heels of the Spanish Flu epidemic. History repeats itself but let’s hope the net effect of this time around is not the same as that governed by temperance a century ago.

You make a very good point. CoV infections among the vaccinated, whether while mounting immunity or well past injections (as there have been breakthrough infections in trial vaccine assignment arms weeks past final dose), have not been systematically studied. There is no evidence that a vaccinated foreigner clears a breakthrough infection more quickly than the pre-vaxx norm. Therefore, a cut to 7 days for foreigners does not make total sense unless the decision was aligned with relaxing what might have been thought to be 10-day overkill, or intermittent quarantine testing satisfies the goal. Moreover, remove national privilege, and the 7-days for Thais without a negative viral test makes even less sense. After all, they may be returning from a high incidence place. That said, that foreigners too from a high incidence location are more likely to have infection in spite of vaccination suggests background source CoV incidence be entered into the algorithm driving restrictions. Many regions have at least 10, even 20 multiples of rolling case incidence compared to Thailand. That itself nullifies the protection conferred by vaccination in those places relative even to pre-inoculation in Thailand, let alone population vaccination in Thailand. The benefits of relaxing measures may better outweigh the residual risk of fully vaccinated incoming people having and transmitting CoV infection when greater swathes of people are inoculated and new case incidence/prevalence drops dramatically to Thailand levels. What is also poorly understood, given that exposure risk is predicated on cumulative number of random social contacts, is that the increase in risk is not directly proportional to the background case incidence. The risk metric, the probability of minimally one infected person in any aggregate, increases exponentially with rolling incidence of the population segment that are contagious at any point in time. This exponential relationship holds true when you adjust for presumed natural immunity and product-specific vaccination immunity for the populace.

Also, recently I no longer had to type in my info for logging in. Now there are a few steps ... when signing in it now recognizes me and asks me to use Riobard, then my password automatically enters without me typing, then it says there’s a problem, then I click on the 3 horizontal bars and I am logged in, without a problem or the need to try again. Because I don’t know when my Members/brown border kicked in, I do not know if there is a relation between that feature and the site eventually auto-recognizing me the minute I ask to sign in. I do not know if the system checked off to remember me, as I don’t recall that I myself asked for the site to recognize me. But the same happened on BT for a long time, yet taking a while to replicate on the GG site. 4 photos chronological order from top left, bottom right, top right, bottom left:

What I meant was: even if you had qualified under BT, as I had as well, the merger would still require 10 activities for newbies, but perhaps after 10 GG activities of a former BT member the feature would appear. That explanation isn’t Occam’s Razor, but it would have to be tested among a few posters, if in fact Oz’ admin status was an exception that prevented the feature for him.

A Brazilian I programa’d with twice about 3 years ago, just half-hour encounters, is very organized with his contact list and is now asking for a donation.

Daydreamer just very recently hit a total of 10 posts plus emoticon responses since the merger 28Feb yet Oz does not have the same feature. Hercule?

And then there’s some deep shit magic that popped up just above Oz’ response ... a blue line (screenshot below). I don’t think it is the rollover of the calendar date.

No, I was only a BT member.

Beware the Ides of March

Or does it perhaps have something to do with this confusing new option at the end of a thread when reading the thread without being logged in? Maybe some of us have this privilege?

I mustn’t be the Ignore hypothesis. I reversed those blocks and I still have the ‘Members’ label and brown borders.

Interesting, I have it on my posts, but not all previous BT members have it ... example below, screenshot attached, that is why the feature shows doubly. It’s upper left hand on my screen (smartphone). It displays whether logged in or not. The only thing that I can think of that might explain it is that I have a few members on “Ignore” (ie, I cannot see their posts when I am logged in) and that feature carried over to the new site. Alternatively, one or more members may have added me to their “Ignore” list; an inexplicable phenomenon to be sure lol.

By rights, Thailand might do well to maintain a visitor quarantine in perpetuity, notwithstanding the coronavirus pandemic. It might help control influenza incidence and mortality to the extent that a proportion of cases are brought in by travellers. You could receive training and testing for swimming skills while waiting to be let loose. Kidding aside, Thailand values its health and life. They would prefer to draw the line at their 85 COVID deaths to date, with a case fatality of less than 1 in 300. In the meantime, here in Montreal today thousands of protestors marching against mitigation measures ... cringeworthy. The restrictions are actually really helping to control spread and overrun of hospital resources. Thailand’s causes of death past year ... 55 seconds animation. FullSizeRender.mov

Sad. Sudden. Very bright and classy man. And he was posting a few days prior. His father died very young. An only child and mother survived him. How terrible for her ... then she died a few weeks ago, February 16th.

FWIW, Adriel has launched an OnlyFans account. Other short-of-work strippers may have (will) follow(ed) birthday suit.

Revenge Travel ... in my dreams. Champagne service and a few hot gogo strippers.

Addendum: more details found ... Taxis, ride apps and public transportation function thru curfew. Drive-thru pickup not permitted but commercial operations can delivery meals, etc, to support sustainability. If you are out on the street or idling in a vehicle you may be asked to go home and if it is obvious you are compliant it should not pose a problem. Various essential sectors may stagger work hours across 3 open-up and closure one-hour phases at day beginning and day end in order to facilitate distancing on public transport.

It’s a huge challenge to summarize all the details when the recent decree alone is endless pages. I don’t know if curfew details are embedded in it. The curfew restrictions do not appear to be detailed in the state website main pages that correlate phases with restrictions. http://dobuscadireta.imprensaoficial.com.br/default.aspx?DataPublicacao=20210312&Caderno=DOE-I&NumeroPagina=1

I assume the curfew is intended to dissuade people from gathering in public. Essential workers need to get around at all hours so I assume private vehicle transport is acceptable for anybody, as it gets folks to a stay-at-home situation as much as possible. Airports are open and flights are not rescheduled to cohere with non-curfew hours; that would not be possible. As far as collective transportation, there appears to be some chatter about strategizing that, perhaps attempts to stagger essential working hours in a particular way in order to dilute peak travel volume. Frankly, I don’t know if workers have to produce an essential status document. Montreal has had the same curfew hours for several weeks. The police do ask for proof of essential worker status but obviously can only stop and monitor a few that are seen walking around. I don’t think they are pulling taxis and ride platform vehicles over. People in the strictest zones in Quebec can also walk their dogs within a reasonable radius of their address. Yet look what was recently stipulated for Rio (Rio!). One would have to drill down and determine the actual interpretation of the decrees.

When juggling three variables: national status, viral infection potentially missable, and imperfect vaccination ... yet without the added variable of natural immunity, there will inevitably be arbitrary decisions that do not seem entirely logical.

Hmmm ... Meanwhile, ‘success story’ Israel has single-dose vaccinated the entire population with Pfizer/BioNTech, and many are fully inoculated on the recommended 21-day cycle. Yet the rolling new case COVID case incidence there is 26th in a global field of 197, with a rolling mortality alone 2.4 times the new case incidence in Thailand. This is what artificial herd immunity looks like in Israel with a vaccine touted as about the most effective on the market. Far from perfect. Thailand has some wiggle room to pause AstraZeneca while re-reviews take place, likely coagulation association not causality. But many nations are deferring the follow-up injection of mRNA and other approved formats to trade off analyzed efficacy for volume. That is deliberative. The happenstance of AstraZeneca is a convenient deflection.

Lula has essentially been granted pardon and political rights; will likely face off in the 2022 election ...

... and strict curfew 20:00-05:00