Riobard

The Pfizer/BioNTech graph on efficacy is meant to be interpreted from Day 28 to Day 88, as the median follow-up is 2 months. Therefore, efficacy is not demonstrated for 112 days. In fact, many subjects in both vaccine and placebo subgroups were not followed for as long as 2 months for this interim analysis for EUA application. That is one reason why you see the placebo group’s infection case volume fizzle out towards the top right; the only other explanation regional background attenuation in case incidence. I have not found any longer-term data even though the cut-off for the analysis was 4 months ago. The analysis is based on total person-years for each group, essentially similar to how many times one individual would experience the target event over thousands of years, in this case infection (though natural immunity not an issue in calculation), because the duration follow-up periods are variable. This method allows for calculating sufficient statistical power for a threshold of case incidence numbers over a potentially short time frame, but does not predict durability of outcome (eg, protective) difference over time. The standard of safety with respect to product adverse events is also based on a shorter time frame, so it does not pressure the research into longer efficacy evaluation time frames. Also, protection from severity of illness was less impressive: 3-to-1. I think that the current Thai decision is simply based on the short-term evidence, including antibody robustness from blood samples that has only been pretty much assessed for the various vaccines up to 3 months following inoculation Additionally, there seem to be some news reports alluding to the reality that the Thai entry expectation is currently predicated on having received all the doses in a regimen, though I have not been able to find formal confirmation of this. Perhaps this suggests that Thailand prefers to stick to the product monographs rather than staying on top of the complexities of deferring and understanding immunity conferred wrt to dose delays. I interpret this to mean, then, that if first dose is March 15th and second dose is delayed, for example, to July 15th, the window for travel entry is 15July-15Oct. That said, I am sure the requirements will have been revised a few times by that point. But for now, it is worth it to check out if J&J is your best option if approved where you are and where you are is delaying second doses, but you need to get to Thailand sooner.

This news has spawned an idea downstream re: capitalizing on the deal ... Guillaume to qualify for gui yu. There’s even a bit of a play on words: gill. A cut above the ubiquitous ‘salmon’, now a lox cause, smoked by the will of competition.

Governor Doria is expected to announce today even more restrictive measures than the ‘red emergency’ phase instituted a few days ago.

New series late Sunday nights about high school kids. The little spitfire scene-stealing daughter of the two gay Dads almost made me wet myself.

... But city hall just wrote me back after I inquired. Nice of them: The curfew was lifted indefinitely. Just observe the basic mitigation protocols.

Sauna Saint Moritz recently activated their Facebook after years of radio silence and is open daily 13:00-21:00. The 22:00 curfew was to be until 28 Feb and the Bogotá city hall Twitter account announced it in January but has not updated restriction renewal or changes ... poor communication overall.

Am I allowed to say yet that I have never considered Fauci a ‘national treasure’ for the USA wrt the novel coronavirus pandemic? In early February 2020 I trekked to Canadian Tire hardware++ store in Montreal and bought out their small supply of N95 masks. I also had an unused supply of surgical face coverings from having worked through the 2003 SARS outbreak in a northern hotspot, though we were gowned, gloved, and fitted for snug N95 masks for months. I had worn the surgical masks outside as they are more comfortable. An American pharmaceutical company sheepishly yet rightfully asked me not to attend a meeting in California on a research project in which I was a co-investigator. At least they acted without excessive worry about erring. Perhaps these factors and experiences prompted me to be very planful and decisive this pandemic around. It’s not that I claim to be smarter or more insightful. It was a healthy respect for microbes garnered from the reality of health care colleagues in my downtown core succumbing to that earlier CoV disease. I wasn’t even on top of the local news, following retirement having paid less attention to media, or aware that Canadian public health officials had also been downplaying the threat. I live near Chinatown and was more cognizant of my neighbours early on cleaning out sanitizer supplies from the pharmacies we share use of. They got and grasped ‘the memo’ right away yet unfortunately often nevertheless scapegoated. I packed the hazard gear for a trip to Brazil planned prior to the WHO announcements throughout January, flying the last day of February 2020 wearing a mask on the flight. There was scattered face covering at P.E. Trudeau Airport. Relaxed the measures for the few weeks during my visit as the index cases in Brazil had not yet been reported. Then was ordered home 16 days later and quarantined. I’m sure I’m not alone, but if everyone had done what I was willing to do from last mid-March forward ...

New York Times put a paywall on their tracker, but here ...

Bogotá is mostly open. Relaxed highest restriction level early Feb yet CoV case incidence declined. Many concert halls and cultural attractions opened this month. There may be some restrictions but I am pretty sure venues can operate to 23:00 if not later. A big tourism trade show is on in a few weeks. Crude daily mortality rate for CoV wrt to population is about 1 in 400,000 Probability of at least one contagious carrier in the city, among any 10 persons, is 6%; 25 persons is 14%. The large scale revival of freedom may eventually yield some degree of resurgence in new case incidence. Vaccination uptake will need to outpace the P1 Amazon variant. Much of the plan is the substandard CoronaVac. Travel now in the short term may be opportune, but Avianca has curtailed many routes. Theatron is still only streaming music so I do not know the lay of the land for bar and club establishments. It needs large volumes to turn a profit and younger people in particular may have taken a hit financially.

Well, 12 years of prohibition, for different reasons, followed on the heels of the Spanish Flu epidemic. History repeats itself but let’s hope the net effect of this time around is not the same as that governed by temperance a century ago.

You make a very good point. CoV infections among the vaccinated, whether while mounting immunity or well past injections (as there have been breakthrough infections in trial vaccine assignment arms weeks past final dose), have not been systematically studied. There is no evidence that a vaccinated foreigner clears a breakthrough infection more quickly than the pre-vaxx norm. Therefore, a cut to 7 days for foreigners does not make total sense unless the decision was aligned with relaxing what might have been thought to be 10-day overkill, or intermittent quarantine testing satisfies the goal. Moreover, remove national privilege, and the 7-days for Thais without a negative viral test makes even less sense. After all, they may be returning from a high incidence place. That said, that foreigners too from a high incidence location are more likely to have infection in spite of vaccination suggests background source CoV incidence be entered into the algorithm driving restrictions. Many regions have at least 10, even 20 multiples of rolling case incidence compared to Thailand. That itself nullifies the protection conferred by vaccination in those places relative even to pre-inoculation in Thailand, let alone population vaccination in Thailand. The benefits of relaxing measures may better outweigh the residual risk of fully vaccinated incoming people having and transmitting CoV infection when greater swathes of people are inoculated and new case incidence/prevalence drops dramatically to Thailand levels. What is also poorly understood, given that exposure risk is predicated on cumulative number of random social contacts, is that the increase in risk is not directly proportional to the background case incidence. The risk metric, the probability of minimally one infected person in any aggregate, increases exponentially with rolling incidence of the population segment that are contagious at any point in time. This exponential relationship holds true when you adjust for presumed natural immunity and product-specific vaccination immunity for the populace.

Also, recently I no longer had to type in my info for logging in. Now there are a few steps ... when signing in it now recognizes me and asks me to use Riobard, then my password automatically enters without me typing, then it says there’s a problem, then I click on the 3 horizontal bars and I am logged in, without a problem or the need to try again. Because I don’t know when my Members/brown border kicked in, I do not know if there is a relation between that feature and the site eventually auto-recognizing me the minute I ask to sign in. I do not know if the system checked off to remember me, as I don’t recall that I myself asked for the site to recognize me. But the same happened on BT for a long time, yet taking a while to replicate on the GG site. 4 photos chronological order from top left, bottom right, top right, bottom left:

What I meant was: even if you had qualified under BT, as I had as well, the merger would still require 10 activities for newbies, but perhaps after 10 GG activities of a former BT member the feature would appear. That explanation isn’t Occam’s Razor, but it would have to be tested among a few posters, if in fact Oz’ admin status was an exception that prevented the feature for him.

A Brazilian I programa’d with twice about 3 years ago, just half-hour encounters, is very organized with his contact list and is now asking for a donation.

Daydreamer just very recently hit a total of 10 posts plus emoticon responses since the merger 28Feb yet Oz does not have the same feature. Hercule?

And then there’s some deep shit magic that popped up just above Oz’ response ... a blue line (screenshot below). I don’t think it is the rollover of the calendar date.

No, I was only a BT member.

Beware the Ides of March

Or does it perhaps have something to do with this confusing new option at the end of a thread when reading the thread without being logged in? Maybe some of us have this privilege?

I mustn’t be the Ignore hypothesis. I reversed those blocks and I still have the ‘Members’ label and brown borders.

Interesting, I have it on my posts, but not all previous BT members have it ... example below, screenshot attached, that is why the feature shows doubly. It’s upper left hand on my screen (smartphone). It displays whether logged in or not. The only thing that I can think of that might explain it is that I have a few members on “Ignore” (ie, I cannot see their posts when I am logged in) and that feature carried over to the new site. Alternatively, one or more members may have added me to their “Ignore” list; an inexplicable phenomenon to be sure lol.

By rights, Thailand might do well to maintain a visitor quarantine in perpetuity, notwithstanding the coronavirus pandemic. It might help control influenza incidence and mortality to the extent that a proportion of cases are brought in by travellers. You could receive training and testing for swimming skills while waiting to be let loose. Kidding aside, Thailand values its health and life. They would prefer to draw the line at their 85 COVID deaths to date, with a case fatality of less than 1 in 300. In the meantime, here in Montreal today thousands of protestors marching against mitigation measures ... cringeworthy. The restrictions are actually really helping to control spread and overrun of hospital resources. Thailand’s causes of death past year ... 55 seconds animation. FullSizeRender.mov

Sad. Sudden. Very bright and classy man. And he was posting a few days prior. His father died very young. An only child and mother survived him. How terrible for her ... then she died a few weeks ago, February 16th.

FWIW, Adriel has launched an OnlyFans account. Other short-of-work strippers may have (will) follow(ed) birthday suit.

Revenge Travel ... in my dreams. Champagne service and a few hot gogo strippers.