Riobard

Stretched out ‘in paid’ is more like real life. lol ... if you edit it, my comment will go over heads.

I think after 7 days on Phuket, visitors can pass through the island’s ‘sealed routes’ and travel to any of the other 5 authorized provinces in the proposal, as they will have been deemed to have traditional quarantine equivalency. However, why not the run of the country? ... that was stipulated 3 weeks ago predicated on vaccination plus negative viral test then 7-days quarantine. Perhaps it is an attempt to herd tourists more systematically, but what a lot of effort to seal off the respective continent regions. Finer details to be ironed out among NCCD, CESA, CCSA, TAT, cabinet, and Phuket. Will the island residents, notwithstanding economic ruin, want to be an isolated subgroup accepting mass inoculation? Depends on attitudes. Death of a Thai man just reported due to aneurism, not related to his CoV vaccination, not helping. I agree with @tm_nycthat one of the biggest questions is vaccination dates. Ambiguous. Furthermore, it appears that uptake of CoronaVac would be the 2nd quarter vaccination predominant playbook for Phuket. In contrast, AstraZeneca is back on the table there, to be manufactured in the country and massively distributed beginning 3rd quarter. IMHO, hamburger for a regional test-case minority, rib-eye for the rest. I would rather they stream the AZ limited interim supply to Phuket. Or at the very least, a randomized longitudinal Phuket cohort comparison of the 2 products.

Fauci himself is an “unforced error”. My shoulder is embedded in a cold chain freezer when it comes to him and other silly pundits of his ilk. A lot of this fails the ‘conflict of interest’ smell test. The haters were willing to exacerbate vaccine hesitancy by needlessly going for AstraZeneca’s state as chum in the water. So nauseatingly egotistical and self-serving ... they are the own-goal fiasco. What the media and NIAID conveniently overlooked and neglected to mention: Pfizer/BioNTech did exactly the same thing and were, in contrast to AstraZeneca, applauded at the time. They had ‘dropped’ BNT’s hit interim efficacy and safety analysis, a week later revising it to preliminary primary analysis (stretching out taking the stock positions for a ride?). Did they already know the second press release would elevate further the positivity of the first one? Good question. The cut-off extension duration for revised analysis was oodles greater than the few days between press releases. AZ simply wanted to present its safety analysis as it was taking a drubbing based on spurious reports of embolism risk. They had not applied for FDA EUA, the vaccine possesses authorization broadly globally, and it was perfectly within their rights to present the interim analysis. They held their cool and under pressure returned immediately with primary analysis data, but they have 14 cases of plausible infection under review that they have had to defer integrating because of the stink the media raised. So there are more data forthcoming. AZ gets the last laugh on the analysis because the slight reduction in total sample efficacy was more than offset by a large increase in efficacy for age65+. But now it will be harder to disabuse the general public of notions of product inferiority. Pisses me off.

After months with a Twitter account I am now getting, in my feed, content stating who somebody I follow follows. Annoying, because I would just have to go their page to see those contacts. But now they are annoyingly popping up randomly. I cannot stop them like for some ads that come up and you can remove and inhibit that content. I cannot figure out any settings strategy to stop the content. I know I can just not click ‘show this thread’ but is there a way to block such notifications? Some are digital media with hundreds/thousands being followed and I worry my feed will be overrun. BTW, It does not seem related to the type of content I reply to.

The funeral meats have not yet gone cold, but yes there is the matter of succession. I am not qualified to give an opinion but apparently in his state, without a last will & testament or even distant living relative ... probate court likely obligated to search harder for kin so many times removed than the hospital did for a decision proxy (friend) ... but the property is deemed escheat and goes to the state. So the site’s future may be at slot-machine odds.

Doesn’t “sealed routes” on Phuket to prevent visits to other locations answer the question about jumping off the island?

What did da Nile say to da Canal? “Just relax and breathe. You can take it.”

39 Minions, one for each year. Joyeux anniversaire!

Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, more federally aligned whereas Butantan is more Sampa-identified, also announced today a similarly feijão-flavoured CoV vaccine candidate in the works to pit against Butantan. Somewhat cloak-and-dagger. I hope they don’t own-goal or cancel each other out in the sandbox of politics and antipathic competition. Due to the apparent secrecy, we may not see much transparency wrt to the earlier phase research that may or may not have been completed by either. Butantan also has to juggle its ongoing CoronaVac trials and the nation relies on China’s Sinovac for the ingredients for CoronaVac’s current ongoing authorized population rollout. Stating the intention to go solo may sour Sino-Brazilian relations and decelerate the present vaccination volume when desperately needed. Barely acceptable efficacy is better than nothing right now.

‘Red emergency phase’ measures are extended to 11April. State case incidence has nevertheless risen by 30% since the decree was enacted 2 weeks ago. Without an offset, the doubling projection is 5 weeks: approximately 30K per day rolling incidence by May. In that event or progressive trajectory, I would not anticipate an alleviation of restrictions. Butantan Institute is applying for clinical trial approval of its own developed and locally manufacturable vaccine candidate: Butanvac.

If Phuket wants to exercise due diligence, based on the more conservative estimates of CoronaVac efficacy for achieving herd immunity, they might be advised to target 1,200,000 doses administered to 90% rather than the planned 944,200 for 70% of inhabitants. Also since much of tourism is sourced from Asia, where the Sinovac product is ubiquitous. Parenthetically China is muzzling and imposing practice sanctions on its clinicians that dare to compare national vaccine candidates with others on the market.

Rescinded ... apologies

@Lonnie, you took the OF plunge? I won’t be. @camsi1975I don’t think there’s a Twitter account for AF. The OF is @adrielfernandess, but you could have found it on Google. For those of you unable to use Dick Tracy playbook methods to trace dick pics, you lack obsessionality. LOL

But it’s the within-region change in testing and tracing rates that poses the difficulty assessing reproduction. As @spoon says, for example, if a reduction occurs. However, if those two metrics are consistent over time the scale of efforts at testing and tracing matters less and epidemiologists can estimate true infection rates, and changes in R, based on proportion of test positives in the context of reported case volume. Mexico is 17th globally in crude CoV mortality (deaths per capita) but the highest in case fatality, 9%. With that disconnect, we know case diagnosis is obviously hugely undercounted ... it’s 156th globally in testing rate. If that undercount bias is stable, changes in attack rate can nevertheless be detected. All that said, the reproduction metric is smoothed out and does not reflect regional case ascertainment differences or infection attack rate differences. As you indicated, Montpelier is not Paris.

The reproduction metrics seem to be easily accessed in google search “Covid R Atlantis epiforecasts” (example), even by province in Canada, so likely states, etc as well as countries. R0, aka Rnaught is pretty much extinct for CoV as it is a basic reproduction number more applicable to early in an epidemic. So you will now see effective R or Rt (aka Rt current time) that I believe accounts for some of the variables already mentioned by @lookin , such as CoV19Classic having evolved to CoV21Variants, rising combined natural and artificial immunity, as well as other factors currently relevant to calculations. I find that the current estimated confidence intervals for R, that is the range within which certainty is good the absolute value is contained by its bookend estimates, are so broad as to render the R metric meaningless, other than how it generally trends, up or down. So the forecasted doubling of incidence estimate for France varies from a week to 6 weeks according to the confidence interval margins. Additionally, the margins of a generation cycle, that is, the average time for the index case to transmit secondary infection, are so broad that it is hard to determine when the endpoint of, say, three cycles where R=1.2 ... 1-> 1.2 -> 1.44 -> 1.73 will have occurred. Then there is dispersion factor: a small percentage of carriers yielding a large percentage of secondary infection. Some epi folks think that R it is too heavily relied on for policy, that it has become a reasonably understood token of the pandemic but overly considered because the absolute value confidence margins are so distant from the number, and there are more complex algorithms that may be under-utilized. A complex exposure risk algorithm is easy to calculate but, oddly, there has not to date been any chatter about arriving at a general consensus of contextual risk tolerability on a 0-100% scale. Such a metric could be held constant as numbers of acceptable community contacts (eg, classroom size, other events) are adjusted against rolling incidence. The accuracy confidence margins of those absolute numbers of people in a given event to maintain a constancy in exposure risk would be much closer to the absolute numbers than you see for R, doubling/halving, what have you. A propos of mid-range ‘herd immunity’, combined natural and artificial, we see that Chile’s vaccination success story nevertheless illustrates the possible tension between growing vaxx uptake percentage and rolling case incidence. The surging case uptick is counterintuitive, even considering it is contemporaneous with Fall school resumption. So many variables ... guard too relaxed?, variant re-infection and contagion? waning natural immunity among recovered cases? a bottom line minimal threshold of community immunity to yield protection? squandering 10-15% of product vaccinating the 10-15% previously recovered when those doses could be steered to greater numbers of CoV virgins earlier to achieve threshold herd immunity faster?

Not Lenten.

I just saw videos from São Paulo and Brasília Bozo-supportive affluent ‘hoods banging their pots & pans, drowning out his broadcast address.

Before A Curfew Kickoff ? ;>D

Such a huge lineup of former and current. I can think of several not included here ...

Michell Santos (SP & formerly BHz) died in October. Rafael Lentz (PA & BC) died more recently.

I have not met any of the four, but saw Lipe on stage when there ... easily found photos of them. GF is the most obscure of the group.

Stricter lockdown March 26th to April 4th, both sides of the bay, but the state governor trying to legally veto the municipality mayors. Nuts.

This Thursday 25March may be a turning point. I am not a ‘techie’ but another similarly themed site has been temporarily kept alive by one of its savvy members during an admin crisis. However, another level of domain registration renewal is set to expire 24March and that may require action by the owner. This may yield an uptick of applicants here.

I would estimate that, for every 5 “conventional” garotos de programa, I have tricked with 1 gogo dancer and that the latter have accommodated about 50% of the time when approached. There are a few related threads on the topic in this sub-forum.