Riobard

Memories, like the corners of my mind … 2 of them in the vid in particular. Sadly was too short a trip and pandemic impeded return plans. So much shorter a flight compared to Brazil. Most of them clean up in the sauna St Moritz one level below it, seemingly same management.

@floridarob and others, is the little weight room at Lagoa operational?

In 18 months I have only seen one or two Lagoa physique guys that I am familiar with from a few weeks prior to March 2020 pandemic onset, on the range of ad sites. Most of the other physique/BB types seem to have always been prominent on the sites and may have occasionally worked Lagoa as well unbeknownst to me. Therefore, my sense is there has not been a mass unidirectional exodus to the sites. Maybe they are not the bimbos they get labelled as, and are scientifically clinically astute as they hold out for their 2nd doses of prime-boost vaxx in 4th quarter. Additionally, my take was always that the ad route is trickier for physique model types and their reputations. I say this without authority as others have been more in tune by virtue of being there recently. ——/- We need to conduct an experiment and have a few dozen board members message the same few hundred local physique models with an arbitrary window of time for winter visits, clearly stating Lagoa as a haunting ground. Then I can volunteer to assess the Lagoa trends in situ there over that period. My accumulated trade budget is insane.

No, the running cumulative total is about 5-fold official reports. That is a constant. I would not equate that with it evens out. I am saying that a daily count of 1 with ascertainment bias correction to 5 is a difference of 4; 5 is 25 with a difference of 20. The differential ratio, 5:1, is constant but one might psychologically minimize the risk difference between a report of 1 versus 5, and the probability of minimally one contagious person in a group escalates according to correcting the undercount. The concept of evened out or smoothed out is not very useful. It might help retrospectively calculate odds of infection over a previous period of time. In the present, risk is based on the current trend. Otherwise, an evened out metric is arbitrary and only useful in terms of its value relative to another entity or pandemic location and whatever is potentially conferred by knowing past info. Similarly, national rates are not meaningful if you are in one region, as I illustrated. Again, the differences between true incidence and observed reported incidence amplify exponentially according to the breadth of reported incidence. That helps explain the apparently large exposure risk differences delineated on the US map. At a certain point according to both comparative incidence and vaccination uptake, a particular location with lower uptake could easily be safer than another location with higher uptake because case incidence is lower in the former than the latter. In estimating such a juncture it is imperative to consider the likely true rate of infection. Vaccine uptake is more accurately measurable while cases and exposure contagion require adjustment due to undercount. Undercount is also considerably variable, needing roughly between 3-fold and 8-fold correction depending on what regional population sampling yields. Current general population incidence rates are now considerably distorted as well because they minimize the true rates among those susceptible to infection. An accurate rendering of those metrics would eliminate a lot of ambivalence about the merits of segregation. In many cases the unvaccinated case rates are as high as anywhere ever while among the vaccinated as low as anywhere ever. That would be fine except for the reality that vaccines are leaky.

… the bigger the cataracts and macular degeneration.

Actually, I thought Cain simply didn’t think it was a bold enough move and would have preferred him all gay … as straight-acting and ‘bi’ cover is so old …. FullSizeRender.mov

You would bring your formal attestation cards/certificates with your name, dob, vaxx product and dose dates, etc, along with matching ID, in the event this is required. Easier than figuring out what location mandates what requirements. What could be simpler? Anyone not fully vaccinated or bringing such documents must be off their trolley. You might not need for boarding or entry, but venues there likely have no way of scanning digital matrix codes, etc.

By any standard, including the least incidence currently Connecticut, exposure risk far lower in Brazil.

I think you misunderstand. Correcting for ascertainment bias (undercount), as per commonly acknowledged differential epidemiologically estimated, it simply means that on any given day the true incidence is about 5-fold reported incidence. This is based on population samples, prior to vaccination on the scene at a time one needed not distinguish between nucleocapsid and spike-specific antibodies, comparing rates of natural immunity (from blood samples) to cumulative numbers of cases confirmed by testing; remember many are asymptomatic. Therefore, in São Paulo it is estimated that the true recovery total among survivors is many multiples of 1 million. That is not bad news for visitors because that coupled with vaccination likely confers more robust immunity for locals, artificial superimposed on natural. The take home message is that daily counts are always incorrect but at low incidence levels the true rate, though proportionally greater, is not much higher in absolute terms. Currently it is 2.5->12.5/100K per diem. But at a peak level in Brazil it is more like 30->150/100K. You are probably a greater risk to locals than vice versa. WHO formally endorsed a 3rd shot for Brazilians over age 59 that had received CoronaVac. I don’t have time to look it up more right now. It will be considered a 3-dose regimen, not a booster, assuming the additional dose is CoronaVac. Personally, I would want a mRNA booster; I don’t know how much choice they will have, or whether it will be labelled a cross-platform integral regimen or a cross-platform booster should the 3rd dose not be CoronaVac, likely the latter.

Twinks make bank.

The true COVID mortality estimated from a proportion of excess clinically comparable deaths is between 700,000 and 750,000. Like any country, there is regional variation in new case incidence. São Paulo is at about one-third the national trend. Full-regimen vaccination including boosters for older groups particularly those with the relatively leaky CoronaVac should be completed by the end of the year. If I were a betting man I would tentatively predict the next wave following Carnival. I think the height of summer there will be an opportune time to visit, all things considered. São Paulo municipality, observed tally 1,000,000 but true infection likely 5-fold that metric. The Delta VOC has completely eclipsed Gamma.

Spain to live, Brazil to travel beyond Europe.

Gigolo Erotic House (Bogotá) rehearsal(?), or Club Point 202 (Rio) solo feature … both operating: [about one minute in length] FullSizeRender.mov

Just out: in Ontario, Canada, 3 COVID deaths in fully vaccinated adults <60 yrs age from Jan-Sept. Gen pop is 15 million.

I’ve used Love Time on a few occasions. It’s fine, convenient. Many of the fellows from 117 are familiar with it and the staff are accustomed to MSM clientele. If you are booking a car to the airport be mindful to add on a bit of extra time at checkout because they send an attendant up to the room to do the snack inventory, in case you used any, to add to the bill.

*erratum: should be fortune-telling.

Eeesh … Sorry about the damages and setbacks. But as to fortune-yelling, prognosticating license plates, I thought it might be if you work part-time taking in washing, completing 8 loads of others’ laundry more quickly and efficiently will pay for one GdeP trick, and you would not charge a service task. FullSizeRender.mov

Notwithstanding the unfairness to the CSW (GdeP), isn’t this a version of ‘fool me once, fool me twice … shame on you/me’ if he went to the motel for a 2nd round of performative labor before seeing any of the thousands in cash already owed?

… engage in the hassle of price-comparing in order to try to survive on a basic subsistence income. Maybe they could take some playbook pointers on other nickel-and-diming price-fix scenarios. It could be that the example stated is an extreme outlier, but the reality holds.

One article puts him age 24, another 37?

Crossing in Iguassu seems to be a work in progress with some glitches today:

Similarly, if going directly from a smaller city to The Falls you may find the origin a bit light on RT-PCR resources. However, as Brazilians travel to nations, thru hubs, that require it I assume the testing resources exist in many places.

Good advice. OCD-grade forewarned/forearmed nuances to consider investigating … I’m not going to drill down to see if my queries are even relevant. I have done and dusted this excursion. Does earlier 1Oct date qualify for non-border nationals coming from a border country, eg American originating in Brazil? I would guess it’s based on nationality, not origin border nation, for entry from border nation to Argentina. Remember that a rapid antigen test for entry to USA is not the same as RT-PCR standard for entry to Brazil or Argentina, Canada etc. So make sure you’re getting the correct assay. Are Brazil drogarias doing the more complex RT-PCR? My take from an earlier discussion at the front end of this mandate was that specialized pricier lab-centric centres were necessary, and with anxiety-producing turnaround times. Is there an end-date ‘shelf-life’ for dates of your inoculation? Some countries define (or defined) an arbitrary temporal period. I don’t think it applies here since neither country has even achieved full vaccination to the high levels needed and which citizens are keen for. Is there an online health declaration for Argentina? BTW we Canadians had to have a purchased Visa for crossing to Argentina. And do you have to redo the online health declaration over again when crossing back to Brazil?

@Alaskabear, at the risk of coming across as tone-deaf, current record-level drought obviously with far-reaching local consequences beyond tourists’ agendas, it might be advisable to track the water levels that determine how the Falls are doing on a continuum from relative trickle to the volume that prompted Eleanor Roosevelt’s proclamation “poor Niagara!”. Spring rains might replenish but are unpredictable. These are topics arising regularly in national news. If the drought doesn’t let up, I also wonder about prospective hydro and water rationing, though access may be determined across hierarchies of privilege inequity. Personally, fortunately for me, a November cross-National 48-hr evening-to-evening visit to Iguaçu some years ago was very satisfying, full daytimes each side. My only other observation at this time is that packing in too many destinations can be qualitatively shortchanging, especially if you have future prospects for returning.